NFL: News and transactions

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I hate Hardo and think he's a blowhard. But the dude is 67-40 with four 10+ win seasons in a row on the trot. Yeah, 3-4 in the playoffs isn't great, but they did have a really nice win last year. The playoffs are hard.

I hope the guy falls on his ass. And the team is underwhelming this year, but the season is hardly over. With their schedule, I don't see them getting to 9, but you never know. Fun to kick them a little when they are down, but not sure 5-5 is really down. I'd love it.

 

[Cellar-Door]

This guy made an interesting video about the Bills offense.

View: https://youtu.be/pIDKWEzr_Kk?si=LKxLXqlJW-T-JHm5


The TLDR is that they're good at making big plays and bad at running the ball, which means analytics like EPA still really likes them even though they don't score enough points to win. He then goes on to say the run game is easily fixable. If he's right then dumping the OC is the right call, provided he's replaced with someone who knows how to fix the run game.

I thought this was a pretty dumb video. He starts with a drive, argues that a run would have given them better FG chances... except they had an open pass flat out dropped that would have almost certainly added more yards than running. He also handwaves the turnovers. It's a silly video, and if the team really thinks that getting a few more 4 yard gains on the ground is the problem they should fire everyone and start over. The Bills offense doesn't run well, and that doesn't matter much at all, and has far less impact on their team success than turnovers and special teams.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I hate Hardo and think he's a blowhard. But the dude is 67-40 with four 10+ win seasons in a row on the trot. Yeah, 3-4 in the playoffs isn't great, but they did have a really nice win last year. The playoffs are hard.

I hope the guy falls on his ass. And the team is underwhelming this year, but the season is hardly over. With their schedule, I don't see them getting to 9, but you never know. Fun to kick them a little when they are down, but not sure 5-5 is really down. I'd love it.

He's Vrable right? Very similar trajectories as coaches. Come in, have a good start then trail off once their OCs leave.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

He's Vrable right? Very similar trajectories as coaches. Come in, have a good start then trail off once their OCs leave.

Pretty good comp. Yep. I think he's also right around 3-4 in the playoffs.

I don't watch them much, but my perception is that they kind of built an identity around a transcendent player -- a running back -- but that's just not quite enough to get you over the hump and even the very best at the position hit a wall. That's probably way over simplistic. Hardo seems like he has more ingredients to cook with.

 

[Ralphwiggum]

It’s pretty hard to have any kind of sustained run of success in the NFL as a head coach. Not many guys can do it. I’m not a fan of McDermott either for all of the reasons mentioned, but he’s probably an above average NFL head coach all things considered.

Unless you have a generational pairing of HC and QB (BB/TB, Reid/Mahomes) the window is pretty short to win in the NFL and I think McD and the Bills just missed theirs. Allen is good enough that they might have another but McD is unlikely to be there for it because that’s the way things work in the NFL.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

The thing I come back to with McD is the Bills should have won it all in 2021-22. That was the Bengals-Ram SB where neither team was truly great. The Bills' insane offense at that time probably would have run both of those teams over.

But they lost the "13 seconds" game at KC and that was strictly on McD. I think a bit of complacency got into the Bills in that moment and that they thought the Chiefs needed a hail mary play to get into FG range. They totally went into loser prevent but the Chiefs were great enough to run 2 plays with the 2 timeouts they had left and all 13 seconds because the kickoff was not squibbed. Just a bit more attention to detail there and the Chiefs could not have gotten into the game.

Then that was followed up at the end of last season with a trouncing at home against those same Bengals, better last year strictly, but with their OL really dinged up. And only scoring 10 points at home in a playoff game.

Now this year they have severely underperformed in at least four games I can think of - @NE, NYG, TB, DEN

 

[rodderick]

The Bills are 5-5 and have the second best point differential in football. I think people are writing their eulogies way too soon. Bad turnover timing and simply shit luck have a whole lot more to do with their struggles than fatal flaws or whatever. They'll be in it come playoff time.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

The Bills are 5-5 and have the second best point differential in football. I think people are writing their eulogies way too soon. Bad turnover timing and simply shit luck have a whole lot more to do with their struggles than fatal flaws or whatever. They'll be in it come playoff time.

Agree, but . . .

Eagles, Chiefs, Chargers, Dolphins left on the road. I don't think they will be favored in any of those games except the Chargers and that will be close.

At home they have the Cowboys, Patriots and Jets.

That's a pretty hard schedule. Even if you pencil in the Patriots, Jets and Chargers, that only gets them to 8 wins. They are going to need to beat the Cowboys at home, or come up with an upset on the road just to get to 9. And 9 may not be enough.
Maybe the Dolphins have nothing to play for in week 17.

Bills have put themselves in a hole. I'll revise what I said above, and I do think they will get to 9. 10 is going to be tough.

Edit: Draftkings has the o/u as 8.5 wins, not surprisingly, with the over being a favorite (-140/+120).

 

[luckiestman]

I’d love to know. Was pretty good as a rookie. Wouldn’t mind taking a flyer on him for next season.

He was good his rookie year, injured his knee and hasn’t been great since then. Seemed like a nice kid. They have a kid they drafted this year so maybe releasing him let’s him go elsewhere instead of putting him on 53 but not playing

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

The Bills are 5-5 and have the second best point differential in football. I think people are writing their eulogies way too soon. Bad turnover timing and simply shit luck have a whole lot more to do with their struggles than fatal flaws or whatever. They'll be in it come playoff time.

Their fatal flaw is the turnovers. Allen is careless with the ball, and neither Coach Hardo nor his rotation of OCs can get that to change.

Hardo also said he fired Dorsey without taking to Allen about it, which seems like the move of a man who knows his job is in jeopardy. And Hardo is awful situationally.

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

The thing I come back to with McD is the Bills should have won it all in 2021-22. That was the Bengals-Ram SB where neither team was truly great. The Bills' insane offense at that time probably would have run both of those teams over.

But they lost the "13 seconds" game at KC and that was strictly on McD. I think a bit of complacency got into the Bills in that moment and that they thought the Chiefs needed a hail mary play to get into FG range. They totally went into loser prevent but the Chiefs were great enough to run 2 plays with the 2 timeouts they had left and all 13 seconds because the kickoff was not squibbed. Just a bit more attention to detail there and the Chiefs could not have gotten into the game.

delete... i are dum

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I hate Hardo and think he's a blowhard. But the dude is 67-40 with four 10+ win seasons in a row on the trot. Yeah, 3-4 in the playoffs isn't great, but they did have a really nice win last year. The playoffs are hard.

I hope the guy falls on his ass. And the team is underwhelming this year, but the season is hardly over. With their schedule, I don't see them getting to 9, but you never know. Fun to kick them a little when they are down, but not sure 5-5 is really down. I'd love it.

Their playoff win last year was against Skylar Thompson, who was inexplicably allowed to throw 45 times and not to good effect. And the Bills still allowed 31 points and only won by 3.

The following week against Cincy they got blown off their own field.

47–17 was the only thing that mattered to them, they choked horribly in the 13 seconds game and since then have seemingly tread water. They got arrogant and assumed they’d always dominate once the Patriots dragon had been vanquished. They are learning the hard way that playoff wins against Mac Jones and Skylar Thompson don’t mean much.

 

[MuppetAsteriskTalk]

The Bills seemed to have struggled since that freak injury situation. Probably unrelated, but they haven't been great since then.

 

[luckiestman]

The Bills seemed to have struggled since that freak injury situation. Probably unrelated, but they haven't been great since then.

Weren't they getting their ass kicked a little bit by Cincy before Hamlin got hurt? I think Mahomes and Burrow are better than Allen so any loss to either of them isn't embarrassing. The 13 seconds game has to sting. Probably only behind wide right in the Buffalo Pain Index

 

[103mph Screwball]

Resident Bills fan here. McDermott and Brandon Beane have done a great job taking the Bills from a consistently medicore/loser franchise, to respectability. But McDermott has reached his ceiling. He routinely makes terrible in game calls (see the all out blitz last night on 3rd and long when they just needed to cover, 13 seconds, baffling challenges, etc). I do think he's a great defensive playcaller, shitty blitz aside.
The "regression" of the offense started about midway through last season. Dorsey wasn't the whole problem, as Allen still makes absolutely boneheaded plays at least once a game, but Dorsey was a big problem. I watch a ton of All-22 breakdowns on Bills game film, and while Daboll's offense would scheme guys open all day, Dorsey runs the same 4 "Levels" routes all day long, and the DBs sit on the outs and slants. He lines up one of the best running QBs in the game in shotgun constantly on 3rd and 4th and ones. It's maddening.
All that being said, McDermott is the real problem. At best he's Marvin Lewis. But look to Twitter/X/whatever it is, and you've got former players like Cole Beasley and Jonathan Feliciano dropping subtle hints all the time that there's something rotten in that locker room and it starts with the head coach.

 

[103mph Screwball]

Weren't they getting their ass kicked a little bit by Cincy before Hamlin got hurt? I think Mahomes and Burrow are better than Allen so any loss to either of them isn't embarrassing. The 13 seconds game has to sting. Probably only behind wide right in the Buffalo Pain Index

They would've gotten smoked in the Hamlin game.

 

[MuppetAsteriskTalk]

Weren't they getting their ass kicked a little bit by Cincy before Hamlin got hurt? I think Mahomes and Burrow are better than Allen so any loss to either of them isn't embarrassing. The 13 seconds game has to sting. Probably only behind wide right in the Buffalo Pain Index

I had to look it up. It was 7-3 Bengals in the 1st quarter.

Maybe you are thinking about the playoff game that year?

 

[103mph Screwball]

I had to look it up. It was 7-3 Bengals in the 1st quarter.

Maybe you are thinking about the playoff game that year?

7-3 with Cincy moving down the field on Buffalo like they weren't even there

 

[rodderick]

Agree, but . . .

Eagles, Chiefs, Chargers, Dolphins left on the road. I don't think they will be favored in any of those games except the Chargers and that will be close.

At home they have the Cowboys, Patriots and Jets.

That's a pretty hard schedule. Even if you pencil in the Patriots, Jets and Chargers, that only gets them to 8 wins. They are going to need to beat the Cowboys at home, or come up with an upset on the road just to get to 9. And 9 may not be enough.
Maybe the Dolphins have nothing to play for in week 17.

Bills have put themselves in a hole. I'll revise what I said above, and I do think they will get to 9. 10 is going to be tough.

Edit: Draftkings has the o/u as 8.5 wins, not surprisingly, with the over being a favorite (-140/+120).

You're right, that's a brutal remaining schedule. I think they have the talent to win more games than they lose there and end up making it as a Wildcard, but it's a harder proposition than I initially believed.

 

[cshea]

Watson is done for the year with a shoulder injury. That's a shame.

View: https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1724786827364864247?s=20

 

[tims4wins]

Best stories?? Barf

View: https://twitter.com/adamschefter/status/1724789965757046953?s=46

 

[jezza1918]

Watson is done for the year with a shoulder injury. That's a shame.

View: https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1724786827364864247?s=20

T's & P's. Bet they wish they still had Dobbs on the roster...

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Resident Bills fan here. McDermott and Brandon Beane have done a great job taking the Bills from a consistently medicore/loser franchise, to respectability. But McDermott has reached his ceiling. He routinely makes terrible in game calls (see the all out blitz last night on 3rd and long when they just needed to cover, 13 seconds, baffling challenges, etc). I do think he's a great defensive playcaller, shitty blitz aside.
The "regression" of the offense started about midway through last season. Dorsey wasn't the whole problem, as Allen still makes absolutely boneheaded plays at least once a game, but Dorsey was a big problem. I watch a ton of All-22 breakdowns on Bills game film, and while Daboll's offense would scheme guys open all day, Dorsey runs the same 4 "Levels" routes all day long, and the DBs sit on the outs and slants. He lines up one of the best running QBs in the game in shotgun constantly on 3rd and 4th and ones. It's maddening.
All that being said, McDermott is the real problem. At best he's Marvin Lewis. But look to Twitter/X/whatever it is, and you've got former players like Cole Beasley and Jonathan Feliciano dropping subtle hints all the time that there's something rotten in that locker room and it starts with the head coach.

Thank you for your input here. I read Reddit and see some Bills fan replies but it's good to get yours here.

There was some talk that Daboll was scheming stuff that would prevent Allen from making so many mistakes, is that true from what you've seen?

Great avatar BTW.

 

[johnmd20]

Best stories?? Barf

View: https://twitter.com/adamschefter/status/1724789965757046953?s=46

Dobbs is an awesome story.

 

[scott bankheadcase]

Dobbs is an awesome story.

Agree. If we're saying "barf" over Watson, then I'm with you, but the Dobbs story is great.

 

[tims4wins]

Yes, barf to Watson. I think I misread Schefter's intent.

 

[DJnVa]

Yes, barf to Watson. I think I misread Schefter's intent.

Pretty heinously lol

 

[trekfan55]

How devalued was Trey Lance that he's at #3 for the Cowboys now when, if the Niners held on they could have traded him to Minnesota, Cleveland, Rams (maybe not in division), Giants?

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

How devalued was Trey Lance that he's at #3 for the Cowboys now when, if the Niners held on they could have traded him to Minnesota, Cleveland, Rams (maybe not in division), Giants?

If he were in any demand, wouldn't those teams be trying to pry him away from the Cowboys?

 

[Cellar-Door]

If he were in any demand, wouldn't those teams be trying to pry him away from the Cowboys?

Yeah, thing about Lance is nobody has seen him play. Vikings wanted someone who could play right now. Cleveland had a rookie they drafted and wanted a backup who they knew what he was. Giants... they had Tyrod who is good, and by the time he was hurt the season was very much lost and they are headed for picking their next QB in the top 2.

 

[trekfan55]

If he were in any demand, wouldn't those teams be trying to pry him away from the Cowboys?

Agreed. It's a sad story for him. He could have played himself into a good backup role in the pre-season.

 

[Commander Shears]

If he were in any demand, wouldn't those teams be trying to pry him away from the Cowboys?

Trade deadline was Oct 31.

 

[TFisNEXT]

RE: Bills

Josh Allen actually has the 9th lowest rate of "turnover -worthy' plays this year of 38 qualifying QBs....but he's gotten unlucky (Gabe Davis having the ball bounce directly off his hands for a pick a couple nights ago is an example). He's never going to be Brady with protecting the ball, but I do find some irony in that the narrative this year has kind of ran away from his underlying play.

But even if unlucky, they still have 5 losses already banked in a tough conference. So they have an uphill climb. But I wouldn't be shocked at all if they went 5-2 or better in their final 7.

 

[johnmd20]

How devalued was Trey Lance that he's at #3 for the Cowboys now when, if the Niners held on they could have traded him to Minnesota, Cleveland, Rams (maybe not in division), Giants?

Dobbs actually played this season and showed some flashes.

Lance couldn't hit any targets this preseason.

 

[johnmd20]

RE: Bills

Josh Allen actually has the 9th lowest rate of "turnover -worthy' plays this year of 38 qualifying QBs....but he's gotten unlucky (Gabe Davis having the ball bounce directly off his hands for a pick a couple nights ago is an example). He's never going to be Brady with protecting the ball, but I do find some irony in that the narrative this year has kind of ran away from his underlying play.

But even if unlucky, they still have 5 losses already banked in a tough conference. So they have an uphill climb. But I wouldn't be shocked at all if they went 5-2 or better in their final 7.

They have the Jets, Chiefs, Dallas, and Philly for their next four games.(not in that order)

That's a gauntlet.(exing the Jets, obviously, but still their defense is great)

I think it's fair to say the Chiefs, Dallas, and Philly are 3 of the top 5 teams in the NFL.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

Dobbs actually played this season and showed some flashes.

Lance couldn't hit any targets this preseason.

I don't think you can hold that against him, he's just rusty. He's only thrown 400 passes in a game since he graduated high school, give him some more time.

 

[E5 Yaz]

They have the Jets, Chiefs, Dallas, and Philly for their next four games.(not in that order)

That's a gauntlet.(exing the Jets, obviously, but still their defense is great)

I think it's fair to say the Chiefs, Dallas, and Philly are 3 of the top 5 teams in the NFL.

Exactly. Which is more likely, the Bills go 5-2 or 3-4? 4-3 seems baseline for them, which will make them 9-8. Is that good enough for a playoff spot?

 

[johnmd20]

I don't think you can hold that against him, he's just rusty. He's only thrown 400 passes in a game since he graduated high school, give him some more time.

I'll never forget the Ringer NFL Fantasy show guys talking about Lance before the 2022 season and they went over that total pass number and once they realized Lance had thrown like 12 passes in his career, high school and college, they all just roared in laughter, in harmony.

It was one of the more funnier moments in podcast history.

 

[cshea]

Exactly. Which is more likely, the Bills go 5-2 or 3-4? 4-3 seems baseline for them, which will make them 9-8. Is that good enough for a playoff spot?

Probably not. They are in rough shape with tiebreakers. Lost to Cincy, Las Vegas and Denver. They are also only 2-5 in the AFC.

 

[Dogman]

I'll never forget the Ringer NFL Fantasy show guys talking about Lance before the 2022 season and they went over that total pass number and once they realized Lance had thrown like 12 passes in his career, high school and college, they all just roared in laughter, in harmony.

It was one of the more funnier moments in podcast history.

And he went #3 in the draft after SF gave up first rounders to get him. Then, Dallas gave up a 4th for him after it being obvious he is a bust.

We should all be thankful BB has never done this and will likely never do it.

 

[johnmd20]

And he went #3 in the draft after SF gave up first rounders to get him. Then, Dallas gave up a 4th for him after it being obvious he is a bust.

We should all be thankful BB has never done this and will likely never do it.

THREE first rounders. He threw 56 total passes in SF.

It is hard to even fathom.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

It’s slightly surprising the Niners are so good despite missing on three top 15 picks across seven drafts (Solomon Thomas, Javon Kinlaw, Trey Lance). Two of them were top 3 picks, and they used a total of five first rounders (one by way of the Deforest Buckner trade) to acquire them. They’ve had to hit - and have hit - on an unusually high rate in the draft and the FA/trade market otherwise to get where they are.

It’s reminiscent of the early to mid-10s Seahawks, the cornerstones of which were also largely not built by hitting on tons of high first rounders (see: Harvin trade, Bruce Irvin pick).

 

[103mph Screwball]

Thank you for your input here. I read Reddit and see some Bills fan replies but it's good to get yours here.

There was some talk that Daboll was scheming stuff that would prevent Allen from making so many mistakes, is that true from what you've seen?

Great avatar BTW.

Thanks, I followed Pedro to Boston. Different conversation though!
Daboll was never perfect in Buffalo, and there were routinely calls for his head even after they started winning. But my feeling was that he knew what Allen could do, and really played into his strengths. He also seemed to allow for more freestyling, whereas Dorsey seemed to be trying to tame him into a typical 3 step drop pocket passer. And I think the coaching staff trying to wind down his running game is what is making him force more of the dumb throws. The amount of times in a game this year where he had an easy 5 yard run and chose to force a throw is maddening. I don't want to see him get hurt, but you gotta run with what works, and Allen's legs and improvisation are what makes him so dangerous. I'm not convinced that Brady is going to do anything different, as I think that McDermott has his hands too far involved in what kind of offense they're running. I am shocked however that he made the change midseason. I don't see the offense looking any better Sunday against the Jets D on a short week.

 

[Hoya81]

I don't think you can hold that against him, he's just rusty. He's only thrown 400 passes in a game since he graduated high school, give him some more time.

I still don’t fathom how Matt Cassel threw 33 passes at USC and somehow managed to be a serviceable (at times) NFL QB.

 

[Marciano490]

I still don’t fathom how Matt Cassel threw 33 passes at USC and somehow managed to be a serviceable (at times) NFL QB.

I remember finding hope in the “how do we know Matt Cassel wasn’t the second best QB in college” argument.

 

[trekfan55]

THREE first rounders. He threw 56 total passes in SF.

It is hard to even fathom.

Semantics mostly, but does the 1st round pick they swapped in that very draft (#12) count as 3 draft picks?

I count two, and now ”the debt is paid” and the 9ers still have a very good (there’s still doubt out there) QB undrvthe rookie contract. I shudder to think what would have happened if Purdy doesn’t emerge.

 

[axx]

I shudder to think what would have happened if Purdy doesn’t emerge.

They keep Jimmy G and he's the QB until he inevitably gets hurt.

 

[AlNipper49]

They keep Jimmy G and he's the QB until he inevitably gets hurt.

They decide to keep Jimmy G and right now it's Mac starting for them

 

[E5 Yaz]

They decide to keep Jimmy G and right now it's Mac starting for them

There's an alternate reality where Mac is playing great for the 49ers and a manic SJH is angry that the Patriots didn't trade up to get him

 

[Van Everyman]

a manic SJH is angry

This is true in all of the multiverses, not simply the Sacred Timeline.