NBA 2014-2015 Game Thread

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Well, it will also cost cap space plus once the Cs sign him, both Sullinger and Olynyk become devalued because you can't play them with Love.

Also, as noted, signing Love appears to restrict teams w.r.t roster construction - i.e., need an elite rim protector at the 5; then a high volume scorer at 3; something other than a Kyrie Irving type at 1; good defenders at the rest of he positions.... I'd pass.

"....where every thread turns into a Kevin Love discussion".

Every time the Love idea pops up, the roster construction thing comes up. It feels pretty overblown to be. In Minnesota, he didn't have an elite rim protector next to him--Pekovic is actually a bad rim protector--but that team was still top 10 in d rtg. In Cleveland since the Mozgov acquisition, CLE is right on the fringe of the top 10 in d rtg. Mozgov wasn't widely regarded as some elite rim protector, Irving is a well below average defender, and yet, their defense is solid. Love isn't such an atrocious defender that you can't build a scheme around him that works. He's not good, but he's a decent enough team defender that he can be hidden.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Well, it will also cost cap space plus once the Cs sign him, both Sullinger and Olynyk become devalued because you can't play them with Love.

Also, as noted, signing Love appears to restrict teams w.r.t roster construction - i.e., need an elite rim protector at the 5; then a high volume scorer at 3; something other than a Kyrie Irving type at 1; good defenders at the rest of he positions.... I'd pass.

"....where every thread turns into a Kevin Love discussion".

I don't see what Love has to do with Sullinger or Olynyk's value. They are going to be worth to another team what that other team is willing to offer based on their value to the new team. That value won't be a whole lot and it will have more to do with each of them being extremely flawed and ordinary role players than Kevin Love being on the roster. If this were the case teams would be lining up to trade for Tristan Thompson who the Cavs would be trying to give away.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Every time the Love idea pops up, the roster construction thing comes up. It feels pretty overblown to be. In Minnesota, he didn't have an elite rim protector next to him--Pekovic is actually a bad rim protector--but that team was still top 10 in d rtg. In Cleveland since the Mozgov acquisition, CLE is right on the fringe of the top 10 in d rtg. Mozgov wasn't widely regarded as some elite rim protector, Irving is a well below average defender, and yet, their defense is solid. Love isn't such an atrocious defender that you can't build a scheme around him that works. He's not good, but he's a decent enough team defender that he can be hidden.

 
This is all probably right.  However, you have to factor in what it costs to "hide" Love as the over-all cost of taking him on.  
 
Listen, if the C's had Rudy Gobert and CP3 with a few good bench wing-defenders that you acquired cheaply, Love would be a great fit.  But the C's have none of those things.  They may well be able to get starters who are good defenders and can carry some load offensively this offseason via the draft.  However it isn't likely, so if you are telling me that they should pay a lot of money to lure Love to Boston so that they can then pay a lot more money or picks to find guys to hide him, I am not as sold on the idea.
 
Also, wbcd's quoted-line needs to be incorporated into the thread or forum title stat.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

 
This is all probably right.  However, you have to factor in what it costs to "hide" Love as the over-all cost of taking him on.  
 
Listen, if the C's had Rudy Gobert and CP3 with a few good bench wing-defenders that you acquired cheaply, Love would be a great fit.  But the C's have none of those things.  They may well be able to get starters who are good defenders and can carry some load offensively this offseason via the draft.  However it isn't likely, so if you are telling me that they should pay a lot of money to lure Love to Boston so that they can then pay a lot more money or picks to find guys to hide him, I am not as sold on the idea.
 
Also, wbcd's quoted-line needs to be incorporated into the thread or forum title stat.

But I brought up the Cavs for a reason. Mozgov isn't some elite defensive big, or at least, he wasn't perceived to be one at the time of the trade. The Cavs also start Irving and JR Smith. It's not like they struggled mightily to find the absolute perfect defensive balance. They traded for the best C available, and got JR Smith as a throw in. In fact, in Bradley, Smart, and Crowder the Celtics have far better defensive talent on the roster than the Cavs do.

Everybody keeps going "how are the C's gonna acquire the elite defenders necessary to be passable on D with Love?" but if you look at the teams Love's played on of late, they're all above average defensively and lack that elite talent. It's not as difficult as people are making it seem. A smart scheme will do most of the heavy lifting.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I've been a critic of Love, but if you can get him this offseason I think you have to do it. Sure he can't defend the rim at the 4, but this is the year where you can get him at a max that suddenly looks cheap in 2 years. He's not that much worse at defending the rim than they guys we have, and he's a much better offensive player. This team has a bunch of problems right now, one is rim protection, which Love doesn't solve, but the others are that they don't have anyone with elite skills on offense (IT is the closest, but he's not Love), and they have a system that works best with good 3 pt shooting and no shooters. Love will help scoring, spacing, and rebounding and his ability to score inside and out makes your offense much  more versitile. Just because he doesn't solve all of the problems doesn't mean he isn't a good buy.

 

[ifmanis5]

Sick line from Davis today: 36/14/7/9. Almost a quad.

 

[Kliq]

Man, I have watched way, way, way too many Laker games this season. With the exception of maybe the Knicks, literally any team would be more interesting to watch than the Knicks. But because of who they are, LA is on national TV at least once a week. As fun as the Warriors are to watch, there is nothing fun about watching the Lakers play basketball. Flex these games dammit!

 

[Blacken]

I've been a critic of Love, but if you can get him this offseason I think you have to do it. Sure he can't defend the rim at the 4, but this is the year where you can get him at a max that suddenly looks cheap in 2 years.

This is not true. Max contracts are cap percentages.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

This is not true. Max contracts are cap percentages.

 
I always thought that the language related to max contracts was a percentage of the cap in the year the contract was signed, coupled with annual 7.5% raises (in bird rights cases). Currently, the base doesn't rise with the cap, the only increase year to year is from the set raises. 
 
I know Zach Lowe mentioned something briefly that suggests you're right that max contracts signed this season may not be bargains in a couple of years, but I'm a bit confused as to why. 

 

[cardiacs]

Milwaukee loses again, now 4-10 since the all-star break and only 3 1/2 above the 7-8 seed logjam. Can we say the 6th seed is officially in play (not necessarily for the C's, but for one of the 4 directly below them)?
 
Edit: thanks apportioner

 

[theapportioner]

I think you mean the Bucks.

They've been terrible after they traded away Knight and replaced him with MCW.

 

[LondonSox]

I think you mean the Bucks.

They've been terrible after they traded away Knight and replaced him with MCW.

And yet the Sixers are still getting crap about that trade. MCW was and is not good.
The sixers are clearly worse defensively without him, and have less talent but turning down a high pick for MCW would be madness.

 

[Cellar-Door]

This is not true. Max contracts are cap percentages.

As Grin also note below, the first year is based on a percentage of that year's cap with annual raises not annual percentage adjustment.
 

 
I always thought that the language related to max contracts was a percentage of the cap in the year the contract was signed, coupled with annual 7.5% raises (in bird rights cases). Currently, the base doesn't rise with the cap, the only increase year to year is from the set raises. 
 
I know Zach Lowe mentioned something briefly that suggests you're right that max contracts signed this season may not be bargains in a couple of years, but I'm a bit confused as to why. 

Lowe was talking about NBA cap projections probably. Because the cap is tied to revenue the projections are that the cap will go up over the next few years, but then go down because of how the TV deal is structured. So he was probably talking about people who are suggesting overpaying guys this year because it won't be a "real max" later I haven't seen the actual column so I can't say for sure.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Reading the details of the CBA last night my conclusion is that Lowe is completely full of shit if he inferred that a max players contract is automatically altered based on future salary cap increases. Why hasn't this ever occured in other years a cap increases?

 

[Blacken]

Yeah, I went and re-read that bit of the CBA; I had some bad information. Mea culpa.

(Now that I think about it, though...ain't a bad idea. Make "max players" sting.)

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

As Grin also note below, the first year is based on a percentage of that year's cap with annual raises not annual percentage adjustment.
 
Lowe was talking about NBA cap projections probably. Because the cap is tied to revenue the projections are that the cap will go up over the next few years, but then go down because of how the TV deal is structured. So he was probably talking about people who are suggesting overpaying guys this year because it won't be a "real max" later I haven't seen the actual column so I can't say for sure.

 
No, he was definitely talking about max deals signed this offseason and how they'd move into the new CBA. It was during the most recent podcast he appeared on with Simmons. He was very vague, but alluded to some wording that was tricky and was causing some doubt around the league about signing max deals this offseason. No detail beyond that, and this is all just off the top of my head, but that was how it was presented, if I recall. 

 

[Kliq]

You think Klay could get better seats for this game. Is he in the third row?

 

[ElUno20]

Just a random, and probably stupid question that im just not seeing, why are the points, scoring, rebounds etc titles not determined by totals and instead by averages?

 

[Kliq]

Impressive quarter right now from GS, look like they are on a different level than Atlanta, and sloppy turnovers by GS are really the only reason they are in this game. Al Horford has played perhaps the worst half of basketball I have ever seen out of a star player.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Impressive quarter right now from GS, look like they are on a different level than Atlanta, and sloppy turnovers by GS are really the only reason they are in this game. Al Horford has played perhaps the worst half of basketball I have ever seen out of a star player.

 
To be fair to Horford, Golden State's defense is very good.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

I so want this to be the finals match-up.  I think Cleveland, playing at their peak, would beat Golden State but a Hawks/Golden State match-up would be close and it would go seven.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Yeah, Draymond Green is just a good fourth or fifth piece

 

[nattysez]

Atlanta really missed Korver tonight.  Iguodala and Barnes stepped up in Thompson's absence for the GSW and no one did the same for Atlanta to fill Korver's shoes.  

 

[Kliq]

 
To be fair to Horford, Golden State's defense is very good.

 
He wasn't making any headway on the block, but he also missed roughly 18,000 wide open mid-range jumpers.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Yeah, Draymond Green is just a good fourth or fifth piece

Offensively that is what he is. He gets the majority of his points off ball reversals for open 3's or clear lanes to the basket when 3 guys are chasing Curry. He can't create his own shot as a 1-2 option.

He's a great fit in Oakland defensively and with Curry so we'll never see him struggle getting his own offense in Philly or Detroit as that is not his game. He is their ideal 4th-5th offensive option when his man is busy running Curry off the 3-point line.

 

[SLC Sox]

Just a random, and probably stupid question that im just not seeing, why are the points, scoring, rebounds etc titles not determined by totals and instead by averages?

 
I'm no NBA junkie like some of the others but this is a great question and one that I had never considered.  In baseball the "batting champion" is based on average but we also follow the yearly totals of HR, hits, SB, etc.  In football counting stats rule, too.  But basketball has never put the emphasis on counting stats as opposed to averages and I have no idea why.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Offensively that is what he is. He gets the majority of his points off ball reversals for open 3's or clear lanes to the basket when 3 guys are chasing Curry. He can't create his own shot as a 1-2 option.

He's a great fit in Oakland defensively and with Curry so we'll never see him struggle getting his own offense in Philly or Detroit as that is not his game. He is their ideal 4th-5th offensive option when his man is busy running Curry off the 3-point line.

You are correct about the threes but I disagree that his success is purely a product of the system. He has improved considerably at creating his own shot and taking the ball to the rim this season. And he does this well even when Curry and Thompson are off of the floor.

That said, if your offense consists of mostly ISOs vs ball movement, then he probably isn't a good fit. Of course, I would argue that you arent going to win in today's NBA regardless of whether you have a player like Green or not.

 

[cardiacs]

 
I'm no NBA junkie like some of the others but this is a great question and one that I had never considered.  In baseball the "batting champion" is based on average but we also follow the yearly totals of HR, hits, SB, etc.  In football counting stats rule, too.  But basketball has never put the emphasis on counting stats as opposed to averages and I have no idea why.

 
Maybe not yearly totals but career point/rebound/assist/block leaders are pretty well-known. 

 

[Sam Ray Not]

 a Hawks/Golden State match-up would be close and it would go seven.
 

You think so? I mean, I've been impressed by the Hawks, and weird stuff can happen in a best-of-7 (still can't believe last year's cruddy Mavs took the eventual champion Spurs to 7 games, e.g.). But I'd probably set the over/under for Hawks wins in that series at 1. The Warriors have significantly better players up and down the roster. They've put up a +10.2 point differential  (Pythag. W-L% of .834) in the Western Conference, while Atlanta has managed a +5.8 (.722 Pythag) in the East. And I'm not a total "you need stars to win in the playoffs" guy, but to the extent that it matters: the Ws have the #1 player in the NBA by RPM (Korver is the top Hawk at #13), and four guys total in the top 25 to the Hawks' two.
 
On top of that, in semi-news: the Ws' nominal "sixth man" Andre Iguodala, who rated the top player in the NBA by RAPM last season, is apparently feeling great physically (his words) and finally looking like his old, healthy self for the first time since he strained his hammy last season: not just wreaking havoc on defense, but also putting up the best ast/tov ratio among all NBA shooting guards, rebounding, scoring efficiently (ts% of .689 this month), dunking on people in the open court and off the dribble like the old Andre. When he's spry and healthy, he may the best player of his kind not named LeBron.
 
Also, in terms of matchup and style, I think don't think the Hawks are the type of the team that should really bother the Warriors. They don't have the personnel to punish you inside; they kill you with ball movement leading to cutters and open shooters on the perimeter; and no team in the league can blow up passing lanes and lock you down on the perimeter like the Warriors with their five-headed Green-Thompson-Iguodala-Barnes-Livingston switching-D monster. I think there are a bunch of teams out there who can give the Warriors serious problems (Spurs, Grizz, Cavs, Clips, OKC if Serge and KD ever get healthy, e.g.) Knock on wood, but I just don't see the Hawks being one of those teams.
 
All that said, much as I like the Hawks and am rooting for them, I'd be pretty surprised if they make it past Cleveland. (And obviously the Ws are no lock to get there, either).

 

[Ed Hillel]

Durant re-injured his foot, out indefinitely. Doesn't sound promising.

 

[Kliq]

I hate to say it, but Durant might be on his way to having one of the saddest careers out of any HOF-level player.

 

[Devizier]

Dominique? Gervin?

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

KG at 26 says "not even close."

 

[Sprowl]

Durant re-injured his foot, out indefinitely. Doesn't sound promising.

 
That's what comes of being drafted too close to Greg Oden.

 

[Klostrophobic]

Pretty amazing if he has the worst career out of the Harden/Durant/Westbrook trio of absolute homerun draft picks the Thunder nailed.
 
Or he'll be fine in a couple weeks and go on to score 30k points.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Well if there is a silver lining, its that Westbrook is now completely free to go into NBA Jam big-head mode for the balance of the season and the playoffs. Hero ball has a new name...

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Atlanta and the Warriors are awesome in the free flowing regular season style of game. Cleveland is clearly the playiff team to beat in the East and I feel this is the year Memphis breaks through for a ratings bonanza Cavs-Grizzlies Final.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Through two overtimes, Deron Williams has played only 22 minutes tonight. He sat the entire first OT, and when he started the second, he immediately missed a three then committed two straight fouls before being yanked again. Bucks have about 100 offensive boards against the butter soft Lopez/Young front court.

Next season is going to be fun.

 

[jmm57]

I'm not sure what's uglier, the Nets unis or MCW trying to take over scoring down the stretch

Edit 7-26, 19 points

 

[Kliq]

Russell Westbrook said that he hasn't shaved once his entire life. Are we SURE he is human?

 

[Tony C]

Getting to 70 games played, so down to the last dozen+.....any guesses as to what the playoff match-ups will be?
 
Right now in the West I'd bet it'll be:
 
1 GS vs 8 OKC -- I hope to god Durant is back not out of rooting interest but just because it'll be so fun to watch. Phoenix and NO aren't out of it yet, but I'd bet that OKC will hold onto the 8 spot.
 
2 Memphis vs Dallas. Memphis is 2.5 up on the competition, so I think a good bet at #2. #7 is currently a tie btw the Spurs and Dallas, but the Spurs are going up and Dallas down.
 
and here's where things get tricky....
 
3 Hou or LAC vs San Antonio. Hou is 1.5 up on L.A., but with all their injuries and,  on the flip, the Clippers getting Griffin back, I think L.A. has a chance at the #3 seed. That said, Hou is the safer choice. Hou vs SA will be a great series.
 
4 LAC vs Port. They're tied right now, but I suspect L.A. will end up with the home court advantage.
 
Gonna be some fun in the West....I think the big battle is for the #3 seed in order to avoid GS in round 2. But, on the flip, that'd land you a scary Spurs team in round 1...they seem to be shaping up just in time for the playoffs. Imagine that.

 

[Schnerres]

West for now:
1Golden State
2Memphis
3Houston
4Portland
5Clips
6Spurs
7Mavs
8OKC
9NO
 
After checking their schedules, i guess it will be:
1 Golden State, huge lead
2 Memphis +7wins=56wins
3Houston +8wins=54wins
4Portland +10wins=54wins
5Clips +8wins=54wins
6Spurs +9wins=53wins
7Mavs +6wins=50wins
8OKC +8wins=48wins
9NO +7wins=44wins
 
Which i think would result in Portland getting the 3-seed and both Houston/Clippers getting the 4- and 5-seeds (don´t know which tie-breaker would be used here).
Golden State could rest some, OKC could be burned until the playoffs and ofc hopes for KD to come back healthy.
Memphis would be a big favourite against Dallas, although the Mavericks could possibly win a match in Memphis and then make it interesting.
The other matchups aren´t predictable due to the close standings.
_____________________________
In the East, it´ll be
1ATL
2CLE
3TOR
4CHI+6wins=48 wins
5WAS+7wins=47 wins
6MIL+6wins=40 wins
7MIA+7wins=39 wins
8BOS+8wins=38 wins
9IND+6wins=36wins
BRK+CHA no chance
ATL beats the Celtics easily, same for the Cavs and the Heat and the Raps/Bucks series. The Bulls should have a chance against Washington, but it could also be over pretty fast (4-1/4-2).

 

[Tony C]

The Clippers have technically passed Portland now (by .001%) and I think they'll endup passing Houston, too -- Houston is stumbling some with injuries. True the Clippers have lost Crawford, probably for rest of the regular season, anyway. But otherwise they have Redick and Griffin back healthy and are playing well. I also think the Spurs pass Portland and end up with the #5 seed. My revised call is:
 

1. GS - easy.
2. Memphis -- pretty easy.
3. LAC - obviously a toss-up #3 to #6. But the Clippers are best by point differential and healthier than Houston and Portland. They also have fewer games, so will be fresher. I think they make up Houston's 1-game lead.
4. Houston -- they need Jones and Howard back....Harden can only carry them so far. Not the roughest schedule, though...so maybe they can eke out the #3 slot.
5. San Antonio -- peaking at the right time, what a series it'll be if they face up with Houston. A fully healthy Houston would be a favorite, but otherwise...watch out for the Spurs.
6. Portland -- their ship is listing a bit, but be a great series all the same if they end up matched up with LA. Would pick the Clippers, though.
7. Dallas - not a threat even in the 1st round. Memphis gets the best match-up
8. OKC -- dangerous without Durant, but..with him, and if he's playing healthy(ish), what a series that could be.

 
 

 

[ElUno20]

Clipps have a fairly weak schedule to close out the season. Something like 7 of the last 11 against non playoff teams. I expect them to rise but the crawford injury is worry. There has been no update or anything about it and with the 2nd unit literally being led by shrek and donkey, regardless of opponent, getting out the first round seems iffy.


I also wouldnt pencil in the grizzlies at 2 just yet. It's likely but their schedule, outside of tomorrow's knicks game, is pretty challenging to close the season.

 

[bowiac]

Does being a division winner in the NBA have any substantive impact? If Portland finishes at the 4 seed, but the Clippers have a better record, the Clippers would have home court. In what sense are the Blazers a higher seed then? Does it matter for the draft?

 

[Tony C]

bragging rights?

 

[HomeRunBaker]

bragging rights?

The Raptors can hang a pretty banner too.

 

[JCizzle]

The Raptors can hang a pretty banner too.

 

[Tony C]

watching Wizards-Warriors right now...it may be the worst played game I've ever seen -- 3 minutes + left in the 3rd quarter and the Wiz are 0-12 with just 2 free throws. Would like to say it's great D by the Dubs, but Washington is just throwing up bricks even when wide open.
 
turning off now...wow that's bad.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Warriors allow 27 points *total* in the second half, steamroll the Bullets 107-76.
 
Yeah, the Wiz missed a few open ones, but I'm gonna say the Warriors' league-best defense had something to do with it.