Napoli Hunt

[Leather]

I'm sure, at some point, a doctor or trainer told him about the alcohol issue, vis a vis his hip.

I'm also confident that one night of drinking (or even two!) would not have a material impact on his condition. I am not a doctor, but that seems outlandish to me.

Notwithstanding the above points, and even if I am totally mistaken about either of them, I don't think Mike Napoli gives a shit. The man just accomplished his #1 professional goal, and has roughly $30 million in the bank, to boot. Even if his career is over (and it's obviously not) for this week anyway, I doubt he'd give too much of a shit.

 

[someoneanywhere]

He's not taking the QO, so we ought to put that option to bed. His goal, as he expressed it countless times last year after the veil of silence surrounding his contract had lifted, was to land a multiyear, big money contract. He took the one year deal at incentive money in part because the money was good, but also to prove his health. He did that. And he's a power bat in a game sorely lacking power bats. The worst he will do is two years + an option year, at somewhere near $28 million. There may be some protective language in such a deal, but it's the baseline.

 

[Drek717]

I'd like to see the Sox set up a tiered multi-year deal based on PAs per year.  Something like a 2 year deal with $12M guaranteed ($6M per season) with a $350K per 25 PAs up to 500 PAs scaling bonus on each of the two seasons.  If he makes it past 500 PAs he gets $14M each season.  Back end it with a 3rd year team option with a $7M base and similar $7M max PA kicker that vests should he see >850 PAs combined between 2014 and 2015.
 
That, assuming he stays completely healthy, is a 3/$40M deal.  If he falls apart next season the Sox are only on the hook for a little over $12M.  If he's healthy all next season he's guaranteed $18M even if he immediately falls apart completely in 2015.  If he's healthy through both the first two years he's guaranteed to make 3/$33M and if moderately healthy could easily make the 3/$39M deal he signed last winter.

 

[TomRicardo]

That sounds good; but if Napoli can make $14M for one year, why would he instead sign a deal that might only net him $12M over 2? The minimum he can make next year is $14M. I don't see how he accepts anything less than 2 years / $22 or so, and probably more than that. Something like 1 year / $12M with an option triggered for $15M next year and a $2M buyout might work (guarantee of 1 / 14, with a chance for 2 / 27) but I have to think he'll be looking for even more.

 
Because his hip can go out any second and there is no guarantee he can secure a QO next year.  He gives back a bit of money to have security over two years.
 
I mean that is how all multiyear contracts work.

 

[rembrat]

Because of what he just said, Rudy.

 

[rundugrun]

Wait. There is no way that Nap accepts 2 years at $6m per year when he has the option to "work" one year and earn $14.1m. Am I missing something?

 

[TheYaz67]

I really don't think the Nats are going to be a player for Napoli, between the expected price tag and the injury concerns, and LaRoche - they have I think 9 young players in some part of the arbitration process and some will be getting big raises in 2014 (like Zimmermann and Desmond) and next to no one (free agents) coming off the payroll until after 2014, and I just don't see them wanting to take on Napoli's payroll and get more righthanded in the middle of the order.  LaRoche has been a consistent 105-120 OPS+ guy just about every year, and they will expect him to bounce back closer to 120 next year I think - he cannot play any other position realistically at this point, and no DH in the NL (and who would trade for his $12M after last year?).  The Nats also have some intriguing possible young guys (Tyler Moore and others still in the minors) who they may want to try internally to fill 1B over the long term, as Strasburg and Harper and others are going to get real expensive in about 3-5 years....
 
Edit:  Also forgot to add the other big subplot for the Nats and 1B - they are talking about moving Ryan Zimmerman from 3B to 1B after LaRoche leaves, b/c of his throwing issues and the fact that they have a promising young 3B in the system (Rendon). 
 
So in conclusion, safe to cross the Nats off the Napoli list.

 

[threecy]

I'll add that I think the Mets could be the frontrunners for Napoli if he hits the market.

That would be interesting...It's been awhile since they last signed a Boston free agent right handed power hitter with a known medical condition and a history of going into extended strikeout laden slumps.

 

[Plantiers Wart]

Wait. There is no way that Nap accepts 2 years at $6m per year when he has the option to "work" one year and earn $14.1m. Am I missing something?

 
 
No, you aren't missing something.  It seems like others are.....
 
If his hip goes out in April and he can never play again, how does the "security" of a 2 year deal that pays $12 million total beat a 1 year deal for $14.1 million? 

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

Agree to disagree. Hope to soon hear that Napoli has countered with a 3 year deal guaranteeing $10M.

I'd even be willing to go a fourth year if we can get the total value of the contract down to single digits.  

 

[TheYaz67]

That would be interesting...It's been awhile since they last signed a Boston free agent right handed power hitter with a known medical condition and a history of going into extended strikeout laden slumps.

 
And even longer since they traded for a former Red Sox left handed power hitting 1Bman with a known medical condition who proceeded to amass a -1.3 WAR in 2 seasons before having to retire at age 35.....

 

[JimBoSox9]

Forget what Nap thinks, I hate that contract for the Red Sox.  Playing time incentives should be the bells and whistles of a contract, not the meat.  It looks good for the team on paper when the incentives are most of the payout, but it's dangerous in practice.  It's hard enough to pull back the playing time of a declining veteran and killing their future earnings without tying that playing time to the amount in the checks they're getting that year.  It's a real good way to turn a chemistry guy into a cancer guy (hyperbole alert).  At the end of the day it's nickel-and-diming and makes the manager's job harder just to get a little risk mitigation that you should rarely need if you do your homework right.

 

[Drek717]

That sounds good; but if Napoli can make $14M for one year, why would he instead sign a deal that might only net him $12M over 2? The minimum he can make next year is $14M. I don't see how he accepts anything less than 2 years / $22 or so, and probably more than that. Something like 1 year / $12M with an option triggered for $15M next year and a $2M buyout might work (guarantee of 1 / 14, with a chance for 2 / 27) but I have to think he'll be looking for even more.

I could definitely see them moving the base values per year up to $7M for years 1 and 2, but if you're the Sox FO you'd want to start the negotiation under the perception that the $14M, 1 year QO is Napoli being slightly overpaid to keep the contract length to one year.
 
Also, he wouldn't make $12M over two unless his hip falls apart out of the gate next season and is still unable to play in 2015.  If he could even make it to 250 PAs and never played again he'd be assured of $15.5M.
 
Then there is also the benefit for Napoli of having guaranteed money in the second year, as that assures him of at least the chance to play again.  If he takes the QO and ends up looking like toast for the second half of 2014 due to his hip he's likely to never see another meaningful contract offer.  If instead he looks shot in the second half of 2014 on a tiered two year deal he'd at least have a shot to play in 2015 and with health could further extend his career.  With his hip condition there is substantially more value in having multiple guaranteed years for him than most other players.
 
If Napoli is focused on maximizing his guaranteed money then I'd say the chances of him playing somewhere other than Boston next year go up significantly, but from his own comments that doesn't seem to be the case.  He sounds like a guy who wants a multi-year deal that gives him some security but that more importantly lets him have a shot at earning what he perceives as his full value, even if that includes some risk on his part.
 
 

Wait. There is no way that Nap accepts 2 years at $6m per year when he has the option to "work" one year and earn $14.1m. Am I missing something?

Because he'd have very large PA related escalators in the contract, just like this past season, but with guaranteed money over two seasons.
 
If he takes the QO three things can happen:
1. He's healthy all year.  He has a shot at another contract, assuming he played well, with the hip concern still lingering.
2. He's hurt out of the gate.  The QO will likely be the last sizable salary he ever sees.
3. He gets hurt partway through the season or falls off a cliff partway through the season and doesn't bounce back by season's end.  The QO is very possibly his last sizable salary.
 
In case #1 he makes $14M.  He would have made $13M with the offer I outlined, with at least $6M guaranteed for next year even if his hip is shot in September 2014, so he loses $1M of 2014 earnings and in exchange assures himself of a healthy seen figure minimum for 2015 regardless of health.
In case #2 he makes $14M.  With the offer I outlined he'd instead have made $6M in 2014 and at least $6M in 2015, with a chance to rehab and take another crack at playing in 2015.  He loses $2M in guaranteed money but still has a chance to play, whereas if his hip goes out of the gate in 2014 he likely wouldn't do better than a minor league offer that winter.
In case #3 he makes $14M with the QO.  Again, with the offer I outlined he'd instead have made $6M + the bonus.  Let's say that is halfway through the season, so he had ~250 PAs.  He'd then have made $9.5M in the first year with $6M guaranteed despite his injury, paying him $15.5M and guaranteeing him a shot to play in 2015 as opposed to $14M with the QO and no assurance of a roster spot for 2015.
 
But again, even moving the base numbers to $7M per the concept works.  The next year's guaranteed is basically there as a hedge for Napoli to assure himself of at least one healthy eight figure pay day regardless of health (same as just accepting the QO), but with a bonus structure that lets him reach his desired salary per year for multiple years assuming he simply stays healthy.  Given the contract he signed this past off-season that looks like a concept he's willing to entertain.

 

[Infield Infidel]

Forget what Nap thinks, I hate that contract for the Red Sox.  Playing time incentives should be the bells and whistles of a contract, not the meat.  It looks good for the team on paper when the incentives are most of the payout, but it's dangerous in practice.  It's hard enough to pull back the playing time of a declining veteran and killing their future earnings without tying that playing time to the amount in the checks they're getting that year.  It's a real good way to turn a chemistry guy into a cancer guy (hyperbole alert).  At the end of the day it's nickel-and-diming and makes the manager's job harder just to get a little risk mitigation that you should rarely need if you do your homework right.

 
Yep. I'd like to see something in the 2/$20-25m range, with a clause for the hip in the second year getting them out for $1-3m. Not a buyout, it has to be medical related to AVN. If there's no problem then he gets the 2nd year guaranteed. 
 
I could even see a 3rd year option with a traditional buy-out if year two becomes guaranteed. 

 

[Sausage in Section 17]

I'm also confident that one night of drinking (or even two!) would not have a material impact on his condition. I am not a doctor, but that seems outlandish to me.


OK, as long as he wasn't sampling any fried chicken at any of those bars.

 

[Rovin Romine]

If his hip goes he's done. His career is over. It's not an injury that rest or rehab will heal for him to "try again" in 2015. He will a replacement and there's no coming back from that. He should be maximizing as much guaranteed money as he can. Structure that however you see fit.

Yes.
 
How do people not understand the problem with his hipS? One or both could go pretty quickly (certainly during the course of a season), either through physical degradation or by causing enough pain so that Napoli can't play effectively.  Or not.  
 
It's a time bomb.  

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Maybe our resident docs can expand on this tweet from McAdam...
 

Red Sox won't disclose much re: Napoli's exit physical, but source w/ knowledge of it reports hip now looks better than it did last winter.

 
Does the hip looking "better" change his prognosis in terms of whether his hip remains a "time bomb"?  Is he suddenly a safe candidate for a 3-4 year deal?  I'd think no, but I'm not a doctor.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

What's the actual risk that his hip blows up?  I'm not asking to get a definitive answer here, but because that's the hard-to-quantify question facing all teams.  And then, what's their risk tolerance? 
 
This is a little like signing a pitcher with known shoulder/arm problems who just finished a healthy year.  There's inherent risk in many signings.  If teams are really concerned about the AVN, as they should be, they'll craft a specific out clause.  But I suspect there will be teams willing to pay market value for Nap for at least two years, if not three, because they're in GFIN mode and have few other viable alternatives.  My hope is that Nap wants to stay in Boston, and the Sox offer two years at solid pay ($24-26M) with some incentives and the ability to trigger a third year that hedges their bets somewhat.  We have the money, the need, and no obvious prospect being blocked at first.  I think two years with a base guarantee of $12M is serious wishcasting...

 

[Drek717]

If his hip goes he's done. His career is over. It's not an injury that rest or rehab will heal for him to "try again" in 2015. He will a replacement and there's no coming back from that. He should be maximizing as much guaranteed money as he can. Structure that however you see fit.

Floyd Landis had his hip resurfaced due to osteonecrosis using a metal on metal hip joint and returned to professional cycling.  That is considered a valid alternative to total hip replacement, with far less career threatening impacts, and is a treatment used for avascular necrosis.
 
I'm just saying that I could see Napoli, should one or both of his hips give out in the next year or two, attempt some kind of resurfacing procedure to get back in baseball.  He's young enough and has a strong enough bat to where if he can even just DH he can be a valuable player for a few more seasons.  I doubt he's just going to call it quits when the hips finally fray out to the point of needing real work done.  As such, he'd value having a spot on a roster to come back to thanks to a healthy guaranteed base salary.

 

[smastroyin]

Wasn't one of the hopes that playing full time at 1B would help his keep his hip more stable or whatever.  So the exit physical results would make sense in that sense.

 

[radsoxfan]

Maybe our resident docs can expand on this tweet from McAdam...
 
 
Does the hip looking "better" change his prognosis in terms of whether his hip remains a "time bomb"?  Is he suddenly a safe candidate for a 3-4 year deal?  I'd think no, but I'm not a doctor.

 
 
Just as a guess.... they might mean the MRI looks better even though the amount of AVN in his hip hasn't changed.  Often there is fluid and inflammation surrounding the dead/dying bone in AVN, and the MRI looks pretty ugly.  Perhaps on the new MRI, even if the amount of his femoral head that's involved is the same, the MRI might look better because the surrounding inflammatory response has decreased. 
 
Generally speaking, AVN doesn't just go away.  There are reports of very small lesions spontaneously resolving, but this is very uncommon (and makes you wonder if they really had AVN to begin with).
 
As I said, I think stability can only be looked at as a good thing.  But just how good, I wouldn't even be able to make a reasonable guess without more specific information.  I'm sure Nap's agent will be looking for some team medical staff to sign off on his hip being "minimal risk". Who knows, maybe they'll find someone to do that. 
 
 

Wasn't one of the hopes that playing full time at 1B would help his keep his hip more stable or whatever.  So the exit physical results would make sense in that sense.
 

 
 
I don't think the move to 1st base was somehow supposed to make his hip improve. The idea was that less stress on the hip at 1B, as compared to catcher, would decrease the chances it would progress.  If they're trying to sell the idea he is actually improved, I don't think they were expecting that when they moved him to 1st.

 

[circus catch]

I see this a little differently.  The Sox and Napoli originally came to terms on 3 and 39.  The incentives on this deal got him to 13 the first year, so some are thinking around 2 years at 24 to 26 to achieve the balance. But to me, its entirely possible that someone comes up with a third year, and the Sox got Napoli on an ultra-team friendly deal for a year.  I think Napoli deserves a bit more, given the trophy and all of the uncertainty he's had to go through.
 
2 years for 30 clean. No pre-condition stuff. Let's wrap it up, reward him and move on with our off-season.  We can afford it.

 

[DGreenwood]

I see this a little differently.  The Sox and Napoli originally came to terms on 3 and 39.  The incentives on this deal got him to 13 the first year, so some are thinking around 2 years at 24 to 26 to achieve the balance. But to me, its entirely possible that someone comes up with a third year, and the Sox got Napoli on an ultra-team friendly deal for a year.  I think Napoli deserves a bit more, given the trophy and all of the uncertainty he's had to go through.
 
2 years for 30 clean. No pre-condition stuff. Let's wrap it up, reward him and move on with our off-season.  We can afford it.

 
I really hope the front office decides what they're willing to pay Napoli based on how they expect him to perform over the life of the new contract, not on the trophy or the uncertainty that he's had to go through.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

I see this a little differently.  The Sox and Napoli originally came to terms on 3 and 39.  The incentives on this deal got him to 13 the first year, so some are thinking around 2 years at 24 to 26 to achieve the balance. But to me, its entirely possible that someone comes up with a third year, and the Sox got Napoli on an ultra-team friendly deal for a year.  I think Napoli deserves a bit more, given the trophy and all of the uncertainty he's had to go through.
 
2 years for 30 clean. No pre-condition stuff. Let's wrap it up, reward him and move on with our off-season.  We can afford it.

 
We can afford $30m if his hips go south on Opening Day 2014? Who are we, NYY?

 

[smastroyin]

 
 
I don't think the move to 1st base was somehow supposed to make his hip improve. The idea was that less stress on the hip at 1B, as compared to catcher, would decrease the chances it would progress.  If they're trying to sell the idea he is actually improved, I don't think they were expecting that when they moved him to 1st.

 
Right, but the point is that first base is less stress on the joint.  We can then surmise that it creates less of a chance of the condition worsening.  Perhaps there is something with Napoli where the catching position is what restricts contributes to the low flow of blood?  Almost like that position creates some sort of dislocation in the hip.  I mean I'm obviously not a doctor.  As well, I would happily chalk up the "looks better" stuff to the vagaries of imaging and screening.  Meaning that the images they took might look better now than they did earlier even if all that has happened is that he has stabilized.  Right?  (Right.  You said this, essentially)   And if he's built up different areas of muscle, etc. that have relieved some of the stress on his hip then perhaps his range of motion could have increased as well?   So it could be any number of things.  I mean I don't think we really know what the Red Sox mean by "better."  
 
I guess my point is that I don't think they are selling anything, just reporting the facts.  I'm selling the idea that playing 1B might help him avoid the catastrophic scenarios people here are speculating on.

 

[radsoxfan]

 
 I'm selling the idea that playing 1B might help him avoid the catastrophic scenarios people here are speculating on.

 
I think this is reasonable.  When I read your line regarding how the exit physical findings "made sense" because he was now playing 1st base, it sounded like you might be equating playing 1st base to expecting improvement (i.e. playing 1B is some sort of treatment for AVN).  

 

[circus catch]

 
We can afford $30m if his hips go south on Opening Day 2014? Who are we, NYY?

 
If we honestly believe that he won't be healthy at any point of 2014, why in the world would we offer him anything at all? And if we offer him a deal that's incentive-laden at the beginning, he's probably going to leave for a better offer.  Would you rather live with that than a slight-short term overpay? Isn't the current mantra that there's no such as thing as a bad one-year deal? And if that's the case, how catastrophic can a two-year deal be?
 
And no, we are not the Yankees, but we are a hell of a lot closer to them than any team that would worry about overpaying on two years by at most 5 million over what virtually everyone considers reasonable.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

 
If we honestly believe that he won't be healthy at any point of 2014, why in the world would we offer him anything at all? And if we offer him a deal that's incentive-laden at the beginning, he's probably going to leave for a better offer.  Would you rather live with that than a slight-short term overpay? Isn't the current mantra that there's no such as thing as a bad one-year deal? And if that's the case, how catastrophic can a two-year deal be?
 
And no, we are not the Yankees, but we are a hell of a lot closer to them than any team that would worry about overpaying on two years by at most 5 million over what virtually everyone considers reasonable.

 
See DRS's post, with the money quote: avascular necrosis of the hip, which might be asymptomatic now but could literally collapse at any time.
 
We don't have to "believe that he won't be healthy at any point of 2014" to think it would be foolish to buy the risk of a multi-year guaranteed contract.  If some idiot GM wants to take on the risk of a multi-year guaranteed contract with no mitigation for Napoli's hips' literal collapse, you wish Napoli well and help him carry his stuff out of the clubhouse. 
 
(Obviously, we had to guarantee a year in the QO to get the draft pick. That says quite a bit about how much we value draft picks.)

 

[DGreenwood]

 
If we honestly believe that he won't be healthy at any point of 2014, why in the world would we offer him anything at all? And if we offer him a deal that's incentive-laden at the beginning, he's probably going to leave for a better offer.  Would you rather live with that than a slight-short term overpay? Isn't the current mantra that there's no such as thing as a bad one-year deal? And if that's the case, how catastrophic can a two-year deal be?
 
And no, we are not the Yankees, but we are a hell of a lot closer to them than any team that would worry about overpaying on two years by at most 5 million over what virtually everyone considers reasonable.

I really hope the front office is not willing to pay 5 million dollars more than everyone else considers reasonable.

 

[circus catch]

I really hope the front office is not willing to pay 5 million dollars more than everyone else considers reasonable.

As a rule, I agree. But its worked out well with Victorino and to a lesser extent Gomes, right? And I get the deferring to caution bit that most are exhibiting, We can always have Carp/Nava at first, and Bradley in center, and Bogey at short, and Middlebrooks at 3rd, and Ross/Lavarnway behind the plate. That was the bridge year plan, I guess. Personally though, I see a deep rotation and a core of talented relievers and I want to make another run at the damn thing, and I just don't see the difference between Napoli getting 24, 25, 26, or 30 as a major issue with the kind of coin the sox are carrying. And notice I've never mentioned a third year. If he's getting that somewhere then let him walk.
 
The Sox's strategy last year was to pay very well in the short term. I think given the nearly constant inflation in free agent salaries that 2 and 30 is consistent with that. And that was with unfamiliar players. We know what we have in Napoli.

 

[CaptainLaddie]

Just stop.

 

[YTF]

As a rule, I agree. But its worked out well with Victorino and to a lesser extent Gomes, right? And I get the deferring to caution bit that most are exhibiting, We can always have Carp/Nava at first, and Bradley in center, and Bogey at short, and Middlebrooks at 3rd, and Ross/Lavarnway behind the plate. That was the bridge year plan, I guess. Personally though, I see a deep rotation and a core of talented relievers and I want to make another run at the damn thing, and I just don't see the difference between Napoli getting 24, 25, 26, or 30 as a major issue with the kind of coin the sox are carrying. And notice I've never mentioned a third year. If he's getting that somewhere then let him walk.
 
The Sox's strategy last year was to pay very well in the short term. I think given the nearly constant inflation in free agent salaries that 2 and 30 is consistent with that. And that was with unfamiliar players. We know what we have in Napoli.

There are a couple of issues that I see with what you ask about the difference between 24-30 million. For starters there is the precedent that will be set. Give Napoli 30 million for two and what should Ellsbury reasonably expect? I'm guessing HIS durability is going to come up in contract talks. That goes for other potential free agents that the Sox might be interested in as well as current players that they look to resign or extend. Deals like this are a contributing factor to the "nearly constant inflation of free agent salaries". Also, I'm no a luxury tax expert, but there is a financial structure the Sox are trying to work within as well and IF they somehow resign Ellsbury, it ain't gonna be cheap. If they replace him externally...it ain't gonna be cheap. Coming off a World Championship, I'm not sure the Sox are going to go with Middlebrooks, Bogaerts, Bradley and Ross/Lavarnway in the lineup each day. 2014 will not be considered a bridge year. Of that group, I only see Bogaerts as a starter right now. You may argue it's more reason to sign Napoli, but what is it going to cost to fill the outfield and catcher's slot? And honestly, what you mentioned up thread about paying him based on winning a World Series.......If that's the way the Sox should approach things can you imagine the cash they might STILL be paying to Pedro?

 

[Drek717]

Lets assume that Nap gets resurfacing instead of a full replacement (and they are not all that different), it took landis three years to return. Whether that was from the injury or the legal issues of his doping (which are a variable here as well) can be up for debate, but the fact he would not have been back in the Tour in 2007 with that injury really isn't. If one of Nal's hips blows, he's not coming back the next season in any kind of shape to earn incentives. Therefore his goal should be to get as much guaranteed money as he possibly can.
 

Which a deal splitting guaranteed money over two years still does.  If he was going to get $14M guaranteed or $7M guaranteed per year for two years it's not materially different for Napoli.  But Napoli is barely 32 and swings a strong enough bat to be a legitimate DH candidate even if he can't field a position, so I'd say the chances of him attempting a come back following a resurfacing procedure are fairly high.  I'm not saying he'll be able to, but he'll likely at least try, and to a player trying that having a guaranteed salary form an ML team greatly improves the odds of making a roster and being able to prove his health.
 
He wouldn't be giving up actual money, he'd be splitting the guaranteed money over multiple seasons and every season he's healthy he'd add enough bonus money to make his desired full year salary, with a partial guarantee carried into the next year.  Worst case scenario for him is having the hip give immediately in 2014 and then only making more or less the same he'd have gotten on a one year deal, but with a team still committed to him through rehab and the 2015 season, giving him the best chance to get back to playing.

 

[The Boomer]

There are a couple of issues that I see with what you ask about the difference between 24-30 million. For starters there is the precedent that will be set. Give Napoli 30 million for two and what should Ellsbury reasonably expect? I'm guessing HIS durability is going to come up in contract talks. That goes for other potential free agents that the Sox might be interested in as well as current players that they look to resign or extend. Deals like this are a contributing factor to the "nearly constant inflation of free agent salaries". Also, I'm no a luxury tax expert, but there is a financial structure the Sox are trying to work within as well and IF they somehow resign Ellsbury, it ain't gonna be cheap. If they replace him externally...it ain't gonna be cheap. Coming off a World Championship, I'm not sure the Sox are going to go with Middlebrooks, Bogaerts, Bradley and Ross/Lavarnway in the lineup each day. 2014 will not be considered a bridge year. Of that group, I only see Bogaerts as a starter right now. You may argue it's more reason to sign Napoli, but what is it going to cost to fill the outfield and catcher's slot? And honestly, what you mentioned up thread about paying him based on winning a World Series.......If that's the way the Sox should approach things can you imagine the cash they might STILL be paying to Pedro?

 
Wasn't last year the bridge year that unexpectedly resulted in a championship?  The Cardinals made it to the World Series while fearlessly giving chances to their rookies and near rookies.  Beltran is probably gone before next season but in the long run they will be much better off after Oscar Taveras overcomes whatever difficult transition he experiences when given a chance in the major leagues.  What are we waiting for?  There is no reason that Middlebrooks, Bradley and Lavarnway shouldn't get long auditions next season.  What else to they need to prove in the minors?  Bogaerts had a better initial transition (though Middlebrooks started well in 2012) than most expected.  Not every young player will flawlessly transition to the majors.  All 4 of these young players have shown flashes of their abilities. They need extended playing time sooner rather than later so that they can make the necessary adjustments that will benefit the organization for years to come even if they struggle for their first few months as regulars.

 

[nattysez]

Mariners and O's are expected to bid for Napoli. Between Ells and Napoli, the Mariners could be a thorn in the side this off-season.

http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2013/11/6/5071868/orioles-likely-to-make-strong-run-at-mike-napoli?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

 

[Cowboys Idiots N Beards]

Yes.
 
How do people not understand the problem with his hipS? One or both could go pretty quickly (certainly during the course of a season), either through physical degradation or by causing enough pain so that Napoli can't play effectively.  Or not.  
 
It's a time bomb.  

 
Hell yes, look at A-Rod. He hasn't been much the same, but then again it could also be because he can't freely do PED's anymore.

 

[Cowboys Idiots N Beards]

Mariners and O's are expected to bid for Napoli. Between Ells and Napoli, the Mariners could be a thorn in the side this off-season.

http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2013/11/6/5071868/orioles-likely-to-make-strong-run-at-mike-napoli?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

 
The O's I can see being a contender for either/or both.
 
Mariners have that kind of money to throw around?

 

[Super Nomario]

Wasn't last year the bridge year that unexpectedly resulted in a championship?  The Cardinals made it to the World Series while fearlessly giving chances to their rookies and near rookies.  Beltran is probably gone before next season but in the long run they will be much better off after Oscar Taveras overcomes whatever difficult transition he experiences when given a chance in the major leagues.  What are we waiting for?  There is no reason that Middlebrooks, Bradley and Lavarnway shouldn't get long auditions next season.  What else to they need to prove in the minors?

Bradley, Lavarnway, and Middlebrooks combined to hit .267/.354/.436 in AAA last year. That's not terrible, but it's certainly not "they have nothing to prove" production. Bradley hasn't hit above .275 above A ball; Middlebrooks strikes out too much; Lavarnway's power has evaporated over the past two seasons. I don't have a problem sending any of these guys to Pawtucket if there's a better major league option.
 

 Bogaerts had a better initial transition (though Middlebrooks started well in 2012) than most expected.  Not every young player will flawlessly transition to the majors.  All 4 of these young players have shown flashes of their abilities. They need extended playing time sooner rather than later so that they can make the necessary adjustments that will benefit the organization for years to come even if they struggle for their first few months as regulars.

Shouldn't they make adjustments at the AAA level first? I'm not suggesting we gave up on them as prospects, but I'm not sure why their so-so performances demand we should just hand them major league jobs.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

 
The O's I can see being a contender for either/or both.
 
Mariners have that kind of money to throw around?

If they didn't have money to spend they wouldn't be one of the most often predicted destinations for Ells.

 

[JimD]

Is there any restriction on multiple option years?  For example, a contract for, say, $14m guaranteed in 2014 and options for both 2015 and 2016 (or even beyond) and associated buyouts each year if the option is not taken?  That could give Napoli a real monetary upside if he stays on the field.

 

[LeoCarrillo]

Is there any restriction on multiple option years? For example, a contract for, say, $14m guaranteed in 2014 and options for both 2015 and 2016 (or even beyond) and associated buyouts each year if the option is not taken? That could give Napoli a real monetary upside if he stays on the field.


Not unless it's changed in the latest CBA. Manny had two team option years after the eight he played. LA got those.

 

[YTF]

Wasn't last year the bridge year that unexpectedly resulted in a championship?  The Cardinals made it to the World Series while fearlessly giving chances to their rookies and near rookies.  Beltran is probably gone before next season but in the long run they will be much better off after Oscar Taveras overcomes whatever difficult transition he experiences when given a chance in the major leagues.  What are we waiting for?  There is no reason that Middlebrooks, Bradley and Lavarnway shouldn't get long auditions next season.  What else to they need to prove in the minors?  Bogaerts had a better initial transition (though Middlebrooks started well in 2012) than most expected.  Not every young player will flawlessly transition to the majors.  All 4 of these young players have shown flashes of their abilities. They need extended playing time sooner rather than later so that they can make the necessary adjustments that will benefit the organization for years to come even if they struggle for their first few months as regulars.

Is this a decision the Sox should make now, after spring training or perhaps even in season? You did say audition, yes?From what we've seen from Middlebrooks, Bradley and Lavarnway I wouldn't vote for "now" and the other two options fall after what we traditionally think of as the free agency period.

 

[semsox]

Mariners and O's are expected to bid for Napoli. Between Ells and Napoli, the Mariners could be a thorn in the side this off-season.

http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2013/11/6/5071868/orioles-likely-to-make-strong-run-at-mike-napoli?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

 
It's even more annoying because their 1st round pick is protected

 

[Cumberland Blues]

The M's pick being protected only matters to the M's.  It has no bearing on the Sox - they get a sandwich pick either way. 

 

[RedOctober3829]

The M's pick being protected only matters to the M's.  It has no bearing on the Sox - they get a sandwich pick either way. 

I thought it would be a 2nd round pick if the 1st round pick is protected.  If it's a sandwich pick, that's even better as they could go out and sign a player with a QO and lose very little ground in their first pick.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Bradley, Lavarnway, and Middlebrooks combined to hit .267/.354/.436 in AAA last year. That's not terrible, but it's certainly not "they have nothing to prove" production. Bradley hasn't hit above .275 above A ball; Middlebrooks strikes out too much; Lavarnway's power has evaporated over the past two seasons. I don't have a problem sending any of these guys to Pawtucket if there's a better major league option.

I'm not sure how helpful it is to combine the stats of the players or even to consider these guys in a group as the "kids" that the teams should or should not be playing. Bradley had a .381 wOBA and 137 wRC+ in AAA last year in his second real year in professional baseball, combined with stellar defense at CF. Maybe there are some specific aspects of his game on which the team would like him to work but that's pretty close to "they have nothing to prove" territory to me from a raw statistical standpoint. He has also moved very fast through the system, which makes that performance and trajectory all the more impressive. Lavarnaway is an entirely different case and arguably not really a prospect at this point - he was awful last year, the Red Sox don't seem to trust him from a defensive standpoint, and he's not really young at this point. And Middlebrooks presents his own conundrum.

In short, Bradley does look like a stud prospect with very little to prove at the AAA level, Lavarnaway doesn't look like a prospect at all, and Middlebrooks is less a prospect than a guy about whom a fair amount of data points to being a semi-useful player that hopefully eventually gets supplanted by Cecchini.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I thought it would be a 2nd round pick if the 1st round pick is protected.  If it's a sandwich pick, that's even better as they could go out and sign a player with a QO and lose very little ground in their first pick.

The Ms will lose a 2nd round pick but the Sox still get a sandwich pick.

 

[twothousandone]

  If he was going to get $14M guaranteed or $7M guaranteed per year for two years it's not materially different for Napoli.  .  .
He wouldn't be giving up actual money, he'd be splitting the guaranteed money over multiple seasons and every season he's healthy he'd add enough bonus money to make his desired full year salary, with a partial guarantee carried into the next year.  

I'm having a bit of trouble following. $14 million next year, guaranteed, permits him to go out and get even more in 2015 -- maybe another $14 million more if he has a comparable season. Why would he give up $14 million guaranteed and a shot at $28 million over two years, for $14 million guaranteed over two years?
 

 I think Napoli deserves a bit more, given the trophy and all of the uncertainty he's had to go through.

Mike Lowell says hi. You realize the Sox are negotiating, right? now, because he'll be part of the team if they sign him, they certainly have many reasons to say the right things, and to act as though they give a damn about him. But really, they are trying to pay the least possible (without ending up with a thoroughly pissed off player), and "risk" the least possible, which is a combo of years and money. I see no scenario where they decide "you know, you were okay with $X, but because you led us to a WS last year and dealt with contract uncertainty, we've decided to offer you $X + $1 million."
 

 
 Who are we, NYY?

I think John Henry has more money than the Steinbrenner brothers. Which I have to imagine crosses the mind of just about every player during salary negotiations -- a home team discount is really a John Henry discount. 

 

[LeoCarrillo]

I thought it would be a 2nd round pick if the 1st round pick is protected.  If it's a sandwich pick, that's even better as they could go out and sign a player with a QO and lose very little ground in their first pick.

 
Better still, with 13 QOs this season across MLB, a good amount of first-round picks will vanish after signings. Only semi-downer for the Sox is that you get your QO bonus pick in reverse order of winning percentage (hey, the pains of best record in the AL). It appears we're ahead of St. Louis, who QO'd Beltran. 
 
But for an (admittedly unscientific) ballpark estimate on what the Sox could gain, let's say hypothetically Napoli comes back and Ells and Drew depart, then let's say, oh, three more QOs across MLB are accepted or torn up. Also, let's assume the Sox don't sign a QO-tendered FA from elsewhere.
 
That would make the First Round about 22 picks (Jays get an extra pick), with nine sandwich picks going out. In this scenario, that would give the Sox approximately picks No. 21, 28 and 29. That's the equivalent of three traditional First Round picks. Booyah!
 
Edit: Add, to your point, RedOctober, if they did sign a McCann or Beltran, they'd obviously lose the No. 21 but still have the 28 and 29. Still a lower-case booyah!
 
Edit 2: Biggest thing that'd push back our picks would be lots of teams with protected picks snapping up the QO'd FAs. And there are some money teams among the top 10, too: White Sox, Cubs, M's?, Phillies, Mets.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

 
The O's I can see being a contender for either/or both.
 
Mariners have that kind of money to throw around?

 
Chone Figgins and Franklin Gutierrez are off the books.