Napoli Hunt
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Rockies too, according to speculation, which is theoretically worthless but then again imagining Nap in that park is worth a few extra million. If there were no QO, he would probably be looking at a few offers north of $10m per, albeit two year deals or at most three.nattysez said:
Because he'd have PA kickers that would let him earn the additional $7M per season as long as he stays healthy. If he's healthy he makes $14M in 2014 and has $7M guaranteed with a max of $14M in 2015 already in hand.twothousandone said:
The worst case scenario, zero health in 2014 and beyond, gets him the same amount of money, just divided over two seasons and that is pretty irrelevant for him if he isn't able to play anymore. If he's healthy for even one more season he earns more money. If he's healthy for two whole seasons he makes as much money as he'd be looking for in a two year deal. The only difference between it and a straight 2/$28M deal is that the Sox would have some legitimate injury protection. If he isn't injured it isn't a factor.
Mariners are now said to NOT be in on Napoli. Just Ellsbury or Choo, and pitching.
https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/398203457179779072
https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/398203457179779072
soxhop411 said:
Wonder if that was the 2/26 offer a lot of us expected? If it is I'm not sure there would be a ton of offers out there that beat it. I also think the Sox could easily counter with either vesting options for a 3rd year or Club Option with a buyout something like that. I'd just be very surprised if he isn't in a Red Sox uniform next season.
Carp seems to be our 1B next year if Napoli does not come back
@EvanDrellich: Red Sox have discussed making Mike Carp their starting 1B in 2014. Would perhaps complement with RH util bat http://t.co/MB5TZX1kfl
@EvanDrellich: Red Sox have discussed making Mike Carp their starting 1B in 2014. Would perhaps complement with RH util bat http://t.co/MB5TZX1kfl
soxhop411 said:
I know he lacks the ability to play multiple positions but I've been interested in Paul Konerko ever since the CWS declined to offer him a QO. I think his bat would play well in Fenway and perhaps his back would hold up not having to play 100 times a year.
Of course you would want a RHH Ben Zobrist but those guys aren't readily available.
Napolis high K rate was masked by his extraordinary 367 BABIP. Also, his season was quite uneven. Great April, but by August 21 he had only 15 HR while batting 244 and a 770 OPS and folks were clamoring for Carp to get more starts at 1B. Had a great 6 weeks to finish the season, with an 1161 OPS, thanks in part to demolishing Yankee pitching.
I'd actually be fine with giving Carp a full year to play 1b here in Boston. I appreciate what Napoli did but he is the very definition of a ticking time bomb and I'd just as soon the Sox not be on the hook when he eventually can't play anymore. Carp is "good enough" to likely play everyday and not become a black hole but not so good a player you can't move him off the starters role if you come up with a trade for a stud 1bman. He's cheap, fits in well with the team and can handle the Boston pressure. He seems a far better bet to be a solid producer going forward than JBJ or even X due to a solid ML amount of at bats last year. If he busts your not being held hostage by a massive salary and you grab some help in season. Seems a no brainer if Napoli moves on.
rembrat said:
Going off of last year, at least, the idea of a Carp/Konerko platoon at first base is quite intriguing and would likely be the most cost effective way to get production at first base. If you take their platoon stats from last year, it would, in theory, have resulted in an OPS over .900. For comparison's, Napoli's was .842. You'd have to consider other factors, to include defense, age and I think the biggest question is whether Carp can keep up that production (His OPS against RHP in 2013 was about .175 points higher than his previous career totals), but it's not like Napoli isn't without significant concerns himself. If Napoli is looking for something like 4 years, and teams are actually showing interest, you just have to let him walk. In fact, anything past two years with a team option for a third, I would let him go and pursue a Konerko/Carp platoon for the next year or maybe two.
NHbeau said:
Mike Lowell says hi. Travis Shaw is a forgotten prospect but, recently, has been tearing up the Arizona Fall League:
http://gradingonthecurve.com/2013/11/08/november-7-arizona-fall-league-report/
Carp as a bridge to Shaw isn't out of the question. Hopefully, Shaw's 2013 was an aberration and he shows that his AFL peformance isn't a fluke:
http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=1B&sid=l119&t=p_pbp&pid=543768
His overall numbers in the minors until 2013 were encouraging. If his AFL and Salem numbers represent his upside, he has a shot for the majors:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=shaw--002tra
His slugging was off at AA but if he starts to rake again as he did in past seasons, he could be lined up for 1B (or DH) in 2015. Likewise, Cechinni or Middlebrooks, whoever is weaker defensively at 3B, could be the 1B of the future.
I could see the Sox holding fast on a 1 season plus option or 2 year deal for Napoli.
I love Konerko, and from all accounts he sounds like a model teammate, but he sure looked like toast last year. The bone chip in his wrist sapped his power. He was DL'd this past season with a lower back strain. He's 37.
HR totals since 2010: 39, 31, 26, 12. And his FB% has sunk below 40% for the past two seasons. Understand what he is now - which may be a Loney type hitter where power is gravy, with the perceptible beginnings of a Youklike collapse. If he's a role player/PT that may stave off his decline somewhat. But the days of .300/30/100 are long gone.
HR totals since 2010: 39, 31, 26, 12. And his FB% has sunk below 40% for the past two seasons. Understand what he is now - which may be a Loney type hitter where power is gravy, with the perceptible beginnings of a Youklike collapse. If he's a role player/PT that may stave off his decline somewhat. But the days of .300/30/100 are long gone.
Will be interesting to see the Napoli interest on the market. For the reasons mentioned above (giant K rate, likely lucky BABIP), he feels pretty risky on anything more than a 2 year contract for purely baseball reasons. The hip thing is another factor we can't fully quantify, but even if you ignore that, I'd be nervous on anything 3+ years for Napoli for a contract approaching the QO AAV.
The defense would take a hit, but I'd be fine with some combo of Carp/Nava/RHH 1B (Konerko, Hassan, player X). Konerko might be cooked, but at the same time, he's not a bad idea if he gets a cheap 1 year deal. As an added bonus, he might challenge Lavarnway for slowest Red Sox player of all time.
The defense would take a hit, but I'd be fine with some combo of Carp/Nava/RHH 1B (Konerko, Hassan, player X). Konerko might be cooked, but at the same time, he's not a bad idea if he gets a cheap 1 year deal. As an added bonus, he might challenge Lavarnway for slowest Red Sox player of all time.
... I'd be fine with some combo of Carp/Nava/RHH 1B (Konerko, Hassan, player X).
How about player X is WMB, and we spend money on Drew?
I know a good deal of WMB's value is in his D at third, but as the short side of a platoon for a year, at least it'd give Ben a look at what he's got. And at lower risk than giving him the everyday job at 3B.
How about player X is WMB, and we spend money on Drew?
I know a good deal of WMB's value is in his D at third, but as the short side of a platoon for a year, at least it'd give Ben a look at what he's got. And at lower risk than giving him the everyday job at 3B.
LeoCarrillo said:
Unless another team covets WMB and makes a decent offer for him this offseason, I'd throw him into the mix as someone in spring training who could potentially get reps at 1B (especially if Drew comes back). I'm highly skeptical he hits enough to be very valuable at 1B, but he has hit LHP pitching much better than RHP in his career. Doesn't have to worry about low and away sliders from lefties.
At the same time, if Drew does come back (I know it's unlikely) and continues his suck vs. LHP, the logical lineup might be Xander/WMB on the left side of the IF and another RHH at 1B vs. LHP.
Jeff Passan @JeffPassan18m
Mike Napoli update: Red Sox awaiting qualifying offer decision before further action. If declines, door still open but will pursue others.
This seems to go against the earlier tweet that the Sox offered him a multi year deal...
Mike Napoli update: Red Sox awaiting qualifying offer decision before further action. If declines, door still open but will pursue others.
This seems to go against the earlier tweet that the Sox offered him a multi year deal...
Beginnings of a collapse? Konerko was 244/313/355 in 520 PA, in a very hitter-friendly stadium. I'd rather just go with Carp.
And yet he still put up a 900+ OPS against lefties. If you sign Konerko, it's with the idea of using him in limited starts and as a pinch hit option off the bench, and maybe for defensive purposes. Really, he seems perfect as a platoon partner with Carp. A lot will depend on if there is any team that still thinks Konerko can start full time, and/or if that's what he wants at this stage of his career. If you can get him around, say, Gomes money, I say go for it.
And yet he still put up a 900+ OPS against lefties. If you sign Konerko, it's with the idea of using him in limited starts and as a pinch hit option off the bench, and maybe for defensive purposes. Really, he seems perfect as a platoon partner with Carp. A lot will depend on if there is any team that still thinks Konerko can start full time, and/or if that's what he wants at this stage of his career. If you can get him around, say, Gomes money, I say go for it.
soxhop411 said:
Not exactly true. They could have told Napoli before the season that if his hip held up they would feel comfortable with 2/26. The report never said that Boston recently offered him the multi year deal. On the flip side if Napoli shops around and sees that Boston gives him the best deal with either the QO or the 2/26 then its all relative to what Napoli wants to do and if he wants to go on the market again next year. With his hip issues you have to think that Napoli is trying to get the longest contract possible.
Papelbon's Poutine said:
Read everything that I wrote. Including his disappointing 2013 at AA, he has a career .826 OPS with only a .256 career BA. The .956 OPS at Salem in a larger sample size together with the sss OPS against good AA+ AFL competition suggests his possible upside. Between him, WMB and Cecchini, giving more than 2 years to Napoli is too risky. Carp, possibly platooning with WMB or someone else might not be a bad alternative without blocking upcoming prospects with Shaw arguably back in the mix after seemingly stalling this year at Portland.
Ed Hillel said:
Exactly. Looking at Konerko's slash stat is missing the point. In this scenario, a platoon with Carp or Nava, he would only be used in vs LHP. I was thinking 1/5MM would get it done too.
He is by all accounts a leader in the clubhouse so much that he was considered for the manager's job after Ozzie left for the Marlins. And I don't know where he makes his home but he was born in Providence, RI though wiki tells me he went to HS in Arizona so I'm not sure if he has a deep connection to NE.
It's definitely something to consider if Napoli gets a better offer else where.
How many tasty pitches would Ortiz see with Konerko protecting him in the lineup?
What alternative (ideally RHH) power hitter could make opposing pitchers think twice before putting Ortiz on base? This stuff is important.
Is it Beltran or bust?
What alternative (ideally RHH) power hitter could make opposing pitchers think twice before putting Ortiz on base? This stuff is important.
Is it Beltran or bust?
geoduck no quahog said:
I thought the prevailing wisdom was that lineup protection is a fallacy.
Anyway, I'd much rather promote Hassan than sign Konerko if Carp really needs a RHH caddy.
How many tasty pitches would Ortiz see with Konerko protecting him in the lineup?
What alternative (ideally RHH) power hitter could make opposing pitchers think twice before putting Ortiz on base? This stuff is important.
Is it Beltran or bust?
The idea is that you build as deep a lineup as possible, so that if opposing teams want to hand David Ortiz a 2.000 OPS throughout the 2014 season you somehow learn to deal with it. In your scenario, the Sox are likely facing a lefty, so if they want to use a lefty to walk Ortiz and face Konerko, I'm more than fine with that. Who knows, Xander may be protecting Papi sooner than you think anyway.
What alternative (ideally RHH) power hitter could make opposing pitchers think twice before putting Ortiz on base? This stuff is important.
Is it Beltran or bust?
The idea is that you build as deep a lineup as possible, so that if opposing teams want to hand David Ortiz a 2.000 OPS throughout the 2014 season you somehow learn to deal with it. In your scenario, the Sox are likely facing a lefty, so if they want to use a lefty to walk Ortiz and face Konerko, I'm more than fine with that. Who knows, Xander may be protecting Papi sooner than you think anyway.
I'm just going by tradition. It seems that scary no. 3 hitters benefit from a power no. 4 hitter behind them, but I don't know what the stats for that would be. Some planned 2013 tandems that come to mind are:
Ortiz / Napoli
Cabrerra / Fielder
Pujols / Hamilton
Bautista / Encarnacion
For me, the obvious replacement of Napoli on the field is Loney, but that doesn't replace the power lost or the handedness, if that's important.
Ortiz / Napoli
Cabrerra / Fielder
Pujols / Hamilton
Bautista / Encarnacion
For me, the obvious replacement of Napoli on the field is Loney, but that doesn't replace the power lost or the handedness, if that's important.
I come here to praise Mike Napoli.I readily admit that I didn't understand the the make-up of the sox at the beginning of ST...
I don't feel comfortable now...
Napoli the catcher became a more than acceptable first baseman...Napoli strikes out even better than Mark Bellhorn yet he sees a ton of pitches...He hits home runs just when we need them...With a necrotic hip disease it as yet shows nada...
My ASSumption is given the wear and tear of last season...Little else has changed...Sign him ...He wants to stay...We don't have a load of George Scott's in the wings so get it done ...
I don't feel comfortable now...
Napoli the catcher became a more than acceptable first baseman...Napoli strikes out even better than Mark Bellhorn yet he sees a ton of pitches...He hits home runs just when we need them...With a necrotic hip disease it as yet shows nada...
My ASSumption is given the wear and tear of last season...Little else has changed...Sign him ...He wants to stay...We don't have a load of George Scott's in the wings so get it done ...
It's impossible to get Drew for just one year though, so keeping him blocks WMB or Bogaerts from being a regular without a more significant and permanent position change. The problem with keeping Drew also isn't the money, it's the years. Boras is likely getting at least 3 years, probably more like 4 or 5 once he finds his sucker. That won't be the Red sox.LeoCarrillo said:
There are plenty of RH in-house options to pair with Carp if the team decides to go that route. Alex Hassan already started to play some 1B in AAA last year and the modifications he made to his swing paid massive dividends without compromising his plate discipline at all. Ryan Lavarnway could obviously be asked to pick up a 1B mit in order to find a chance to show if his bat is ML worthy. Middlebrooks would even be an option if a good backup MI can be acquired, maybe Jhonny Peralta if the market doesn't offer him anything better after his steroid suspension. He could back up both SS while competing with WMB for the 3B job.
I'd prefer to try out all of them, along with seeing if Carp actually needs a platoon partner, before going outside the organization for a stop gap short side of a platoon 1B.
Napoli at the B's game
Mike Napoli @MikeNapoli258m
At B's game with my buddy Sam Berns. Check out " life according to Sam" about his battle w/ @progeria On HBO! pic.twitter.com/AJpjhkH5a6
Mike Napoli @MikeNapoli258m
At B's game with my buddy Sam Berns. Check out " life according to Sam" about his battle w/ @progeria On HBO! pic.twitter.com/AJpjhkH5a6
And yet he still put up a 900+ OPS against lefties. If you sign Konerko, it's with the idea of using him in limited starts and as a pinch hit option off the bench, and maybe for defensive purposes. Really, he seems perfect as a platoon partner with Carp. A lot will depend on if there is any team that still thinks Konerko can start full time, and/or if that's what he wants at this stage of his career. If you can get him around, say, Gomes money, I say go for it.
I'd be shocked if they used a bench spot on such a one-dimensional guy. Is he even decent at 1B anymore?
I'd be shocked if they used a bench spot on such a one-dimensional guy. Is he even decent at 1B anymore?
I have no inside info on Napoli's hips, but from everything we've heard there has been no progression. Given that they caught it at an early stage and he's been on bisphosphonate treatment, there's an excellent chance that it will not progress, or if it does it will be well after his playing career. You have to consider the health thing when talking about contracts, of course, but I think this may be less of an issue than some people are making it out to be.
I personally hope they can re-sign him - he was at times maddening to watch with all the strikeouts, but when push came to shove he had some huge hits, played great defense, and showed that he can handle/thrive in the Boston playing environment.
I personally hope they can re-sign him - he was at times maddening to watch with all the strikeouts, but when push came to shove he had some huge hits, played great defense, and showed that he can handle/thrive in the Boston playing environment.
Travis Shaw isn't even a top 40 prospect in the Boston system (Sox Prospects has him at 46). He is a 23 year old first baseman who slugged under .400 last year in AA. He doesn't have pedigree on his side, as he was a 9th round pick out of Kent State. The AFL is notorious for inflating hitting stats and has seen a persistent decline in pitching talent in the last several years. Calling him a prospect is being kind. Worrying about blocking his path to MLB in free agency strategy is lunacy. Shaw is far far far far far more likely to never sniff the majors than he is ever starting for the Red Sox.The Boomer said:
This is a guy I want on my team.soxhop411 said:Napoli at the B's game
Mike Napoli @MikeNapoli258m
At B's game with my buddy Sam Berns. Check out " life according to Sam" about his battle w/ @progeria On HBO! pic.twitter.com/AJpjhkH5a6
ItOnceWasMyLife said:
Agree. From all the stories about him from his time in Anaheim, Texas, and now Boston, he really seems like a Hail Fellow Well Met. A big contributor on the field and with clubhouse/off-field esprit-de-corps.
Why would a guy who is from South Florida and is now a free agent stick around town like this for two weeks post-victory if he didn't enjoy being here.
Hips don't fool me now, get it done, Ben.
Napoli to turn down QO, per Heyman
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24219028/napoli-and-maybe-everyone-expected-to-turn-down-qualifying-offer
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24219028/napoli-and-maybe-everyone-expected-to-turn-down-qualifying-offer
Looks like Gollum and Gimli.soxhop411 said:Napoli at the B's game
Mike Napoli @MikeNapoli258m
At B's game with my buddy Sam Berns. Check out " life according to Sam" about his battle w/ @progeria On HBO! pic.twitter.com/AJpjhkH5a6
Dick Pole Upside said:
He has a soft-spoken, heart-of-gold way about him that comes out in interviews longer than soundbites that really is quite different from his stereotype persona. If there's a guy who proves that strike outs really don't matter much more for purposes of analyzing a player than any other outs, it's he. (Although I suppose the entire Red Sox 2013 post-season makes that point reasonably well.) I'd like to see him back, but can understand his desire to get as many years as he can. If he can get a team to go 3, I think he takes it.
Incidentally, if you've ever seen a story on Sam Berns, he's a very cool boy -- he and his family are extremely inspirational and impressive. Nap's really a good dude, but I bet he'd be the first to say he maybe got more out of going to that hockey game than Sam did.
Jenny Dell @JennyDellNESN 4m
RT @alexspeier: Source: Mike Napoli declines Red Sox qualifying offer after MRI reveals no deterioration in hips
RT @alexspeier: Source: Mike Napoli declines Red Sox qualifying offer after MRI reveals no deterioration in hips
I like Mike Napoli a lot - he's a great fit for this team when healthy and he seems like a terrific ambassador for the team and a genuinely good guy . I'm OK if Ben decides to offer him a two-year deal to basically make good on the deal he would have had last year (with some sort of 2015 protection for the team built in if Napoli proves unable to perform next year). That being said, if some other GM is intent on overpaying him for too many years and too much guaranteed money, I hope Ben holds firm and I will not be terribly upset if Napoli ends up walking.
I don't find that this is going to be a very difficult negotiation at all. They agreed to 3/39 last year before the hip issue arose on the physical, so the parties agreed on his value once already. They reworked the deal after the hip popped up, so they agreed on value twice ....and he ended up earning the 13M anyway. By all accounts those negotiations were done amicably and the result was no hard feelings either way. He was never bitter, he played at a level expected, and here we are a year later.
The guy didn't do anything to put himself into the 20m/year category, nor did his hip put him in a year by year situation. A long term deal is completely out of the question (from anyone) due to his medical issues. His one year value is at least 14M based on the qualifying offer. Length of the deal is pretty obvious. More than one, and less than 4-5 due to age/health. So we can do the math here.
2/27-28 with some type of club/player options, or
3/38-39
Announce it in about a week.
The guy didn't do anything to put himself into the 20m/year category, nor did his hip put him in a year by year situation. A long term deal is completely out of the question (from anyone) due to his medical issues. His one year value is at least 14M based on the qualifying offer. Length of the deal is pretty obvious. More than one, and less than 4-5 due to age/health. So we can do the math here.
2/27-28 with some type of club/player options, or
3/38-39
Announce it in about a week.
PaulinMyrBch said:
Sounds reasonable, but the worry in all these cases is that it just takes one team to overbid to mess up the logical thought process. There is some talk that FA will get paid more this offseason with all the TV money coming in. Add that to Napoli now looking like an above average 1B on defense, and a maybe different teams looking for right handed power this offseason compared to last offseason.
What do you do if a team decides to go 4/60 guaranteed? I'm not saying it's likely, but I dont think it's impossible either. I have a feeling Nap's agents are looking to see if that kind of deal is out there. Let's hope it's not.
I like Napoli and really liked the season he just had for the Red Sox. With that said, I think I am a little outside the consensus here. Because I'm putting Napoli lowest on the Red Sox's offseason priority list, as his skillset is pretty replaceable. I am cool with the qualifying offer, or even following through on his initial contract, but if it's going to take more, I'd rather allocate those resources to Ellsbury.
It's crazy to overpay for Napoli when you have Nava and Carp on the bench--all you need is a three/39 with a Lackey-type hip clause.
lambeau said:
I agree with not over-extending for Nap. Something along the lines of 4/60 would be too much for me, even just purely for non-medical baseball reasons.
But it's worth noting there won't be a Lackey-type hip clause in Napoli's case since there is no Tommy John-type "good as new" procedure for Napoli's hip if his femoral head collapsess. If he misses a year due to hip problems, a year of service down the line at minimum wage won't do you much good.
If the medical issues are a concern, you want a way to get out of paying some of the 3/39, not a way to get a minimim wage season tacked on.
lambeau said:
If Napoli's hip is a problem, he doesn't get surgery and come back stronger than ever. He has a hip replacement and retires.
Can we stop using this as an example?
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