Murray... Present (in the NFL)

Danny_Darwin

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So I don't really follow football that closely, but I have been watching the Kyler Murray situation a little bit - short version, which, surely someone else can fill in the details if they find this inadequate: the A's drafted him, he then played the college football season and was awesome, leading now to the question of which sport he's going to pick - and with him officially declaring for the NFL draft today, I thought I'd get the ball rolling on discussion as I was surprised to see there was not already a thread about this. I can certainly see why he'd be leaning towards football given some realities of baseball, both financial and otherwise. But I guess we'll see.
 

McBride11

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Completed and signed paperwork for NFL draft.

Seems like a negotiating ploy after asking for an additional 15m (A's all ready gave him 4.66M signing bonus after drafting him 9th) just yesterday. https://www.kjrh.com/sports/report-sooners-qb-kyler-murray-asks-as-for-15-million-or-hell-enter-nfl-draft

However that 15M exceeds the A's allotment for draft money (about 10M). So the A's would have to add him to the 40 and get some special permission to add this money in.

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/01/kyler-murray-mlb-nfl-football-baseball-decision-rules-raise-15-million-draft-deadline-update
 

Plympton91

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This is Boras attempting to find a loophole that will maybe help blow up the MLB slotting system. Good for him!

If Kyler Murray is worth $15 million, it shows what a collassal restraint on free trade the draft really is. Not sure how that plays into employment law and collective bargainning but I hope a little. The MLB players union and MLB owners couldn’t collectively bargain to force draftees to play for free right?
 

Blue Monkey

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Man if I was a duel sport threat I’d pick MLB over NFL any day. I’ll admit that I don’t know the specific ins and outs of this situation. Maybe he’s just trying to turn his awesome season into one big NFL payday? I’d think that career earnings potential would be much greater in MLB. What’s the average career length in MLB? Isn’t it like 2.5 years in the NFL?
 

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Man if I was a duel sport threat I’d pick MLB over NFL any day. I’ll admit that I don’t know the specific ins and outs of this situation. Maybe he’s just trying to turn his awesome season into one big NFL payday? I’d think that career earnings potential would be much greater in MLB. What’s the average career length in MLB? Isn’t it like 2.5 years in the NFL?
The average MLB career is much longer, you make more money and in most cases you do not suffer the kind of traumatic injuries that are commonplace for literally every NFL player.

Of course, the NFL has one big advantage - Murray knows that he will be drafted and make the NFL, even if success is not assured. MLB offers no such guarantee. So if Murray believes (or has been told) that he is unlikely to make the big club, he should probably choose the NFL rather than risk becoming Drew Henson 2.0.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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Yeah, very few prospects are guarantees to make the majors, and especially to get to 5 or 6 years of MLB service, when you start making NFL money. His rookie contract with the NFL will pay him more than he gets prior to MLB free agency, right?
 

Danny_Darwin

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The average MLB career is much longer, you make more money and in most cases you do not suffer the kind of traumatic injuries that are commonplace for literally every NFL player.

Of course, the NFL has one big advantage - Murray knows that he will be drafted and make the NFL, even if success is not assured. MLB offers no such guarantee. So if Murray believes (or has been told) that he is unlikely to make the big club, he should probably choose the NFL rather than risk becoming Drew Henson 2.0.
On top of that, I’m sure he’s watching the same offseason as the rest of us and seeing that the big paydays that once awaited good, young MLB players aren’t really a thing anymore.
 

Dernells Casket n Flagon

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Here are the contracts and signing bonus for last year's first rounders. Picks 1, 3, 7, 10 and 32 are the QBs in this round.

While a baseball career might have more longevity, and higher quality of life with only a $4M signing bonus from the As his PE is probably higher as a football player due simply to the disparity in first contract.

Code:
PICK    TEAM    PLAYER    TOTAL CONTRACT    SIGNING BONUS
                
1    Browns     Baker Mayfield     $33,158,294     $22,185,523
                
2    Giants     Saquon Barkley      $31,647,174    $21,086,526
                
3    Jets     Sam Darnold     $30,685,571    $20,387,178
                
4    Browns     Denzel Ward     $29,586,562    $19,587,900
                
5    Broncos     Bradley Chubb     $27,663,313    $18,189,173
                
6    Colts     Quenton Nelson     $24,228,952     $15,691,456
                
7    Bills     Josh Allen     $21,481,462     $13,693,282
                
8    Bears     Roquan Smith     $18,733,972     $11,695,107
                
9    49ers     Mike McGlinchey     $18,596,442     $11,595,085
                
10    Cardinals     Josh Rosen     $17,841,032     $11,045,697
                
11    Dolphins     Minkah Fitzpatrick     $16,673,360     $10,196,480
                
12    Buccaneers     Vita Vea     $15,024,853     $8,997,566
                
13    Redskins     Da'Ron Payne     $14,612,732     $8,697,842
                
14    Saints     Marcus Davenport     $13,925,862     $8,198,300
                
15    Raiders     Kolton Miller     $13,651,129     $7,998,494
                
16    Bills     Tremaine Edmunds     $12,826,862     $7,399,027
                
17    Chargers     Derwin James     $12,552,112     $7,199,209
                
18    Packers     Jaire Alexander     $12,208,682     $6,949,441
                
19    Cowboys     Leighton Vander Esch     $12,002,612     $6,799,573
                
20    Lions     Frank Ragnow     $11,933,932     $6,749,623
                
21    Bengals     Billy Price     $11,865,242     $6,699,667
                
22    Titans     Rashaan Evans     $11,727,863     $6,599,755
                
23    Patriots     Isaiah Wynn     $11,590,492     $6,499,849
                
24    Panthers     D.J. Moore     $11,315,742     $6,300,030
                
25    Ravens     Hayden Hurst     $11,178,372     $6,200,124
                
26    Falcons     Calvin Ridley     $11,040,975     $6,100,200
                
27    Seahawks     Rashaad Penny     $10,903,622     $6,000,306
                
28    Steelers     Terrell Edmunds     $10,834,932     $5,950,351
                
29    Jaguars     Taven Bryan     $10,283,751     $5,549,491
                
30    Vikings     Mike Hughes     $9,991,865     $5,337,210
                
31    Patriots     Sony Michel     $9,747,362     $5,159,391
                
32    Ravens     Lamar Jackson     $9,589,930     $5,044,895
 

steveluck7

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On top of that, I’m sure he’s watching the same offseason as the rest of us and seeing that the big paydays that once awaited good, young MLB players aren’t really a thing anymore.
Granted the astronomical numbers tossed out by Boras haven't materialized but Machado and Harper will still likely sign for somewhere in the neighborhood of 3x the guaranteed money than anyone in the NFL has gotten (highest guaranteed # I found for an NFL player is $94 million for Matt Ryan).
Of course, that money comes 6 years into a career so the money on the front-end favors the NFL but it's much higher in MLB - and fully guaranteed
 

Average Reds

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Yeah, very few prospects are guarantees to make the majors, and especially to get to 5 or 6 years of MLB service, when you start making NFL money. His rookie contract with the NFL will pay him more than he gets prior to MLB free agency, right?
Yeah, the dynamics are such that if you know you're going to be a first round draft pick in the NFL, you will make much more upfront by going that route.

However, if you make it to the big leagues and become an above-average player, it's probably a wash. If you are a solid starter, baseball is almost certainly the best choice. Factoring in quality of life, I'd always advise those who are that gifted to play baseball.

Kirk Gibson is an interesting example. He was set to be the first wide receiver drafted when he graduated from Michigan State, but he informed every NFL team that he was playing baseball. (The Eagles coveted him badly, but ended up taking Mike Quick because Gibson warned them off. The Cards ended up taking him in the seventh round but he did not change his mind.)

Gibson was anything but a sure bet, as he had only played one year of college baseball. But he was convinced he was making the right choice because, as he put it, the average career was much longer in baseball and he wouldn't retire as a cripple. Of course, he played 17 seasons and walks with a limp, so maybe 1 for 2?
 

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If Murray washes out as an NFL QB, wouldn't baseball still be an option? If he really has MLB-level talent, barring injury (which is a realistic concern), he should still have a shot. If not with the Oakland than someone. Given that he'll be paid more up front in the NFL and will find out much, much faster if football is going to work out for him, going to the NFL seems a no-brainer to me.

Edit: Put more simply, I think Murray has a better chance of playing baseball if football doesn't work out than he has playing football if baseball doesn't work out.
 

curly2

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I think he would have a shot of getting back into baseball if he were a pitcher. As a position player, I think taking a shot in the NFL first will kill any hopes of a baseball career.

Hitting a baseball is the hardest thing in sports, even if you do it all the time. Figuring Murray giving football at least three years before giving up, he would then be trying to make it in baseball as a 25-year-old without a single at-bat in professional baseball.

It's not impossible, but it seems highly improbable.

It's also why I think making Trey Ball and outfielder is such a longshot. He's basically gone five years without hitting. That's a lot to overcome -- although I know Rick Ankiel pulled it off.
 
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santadevil

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I assume Murray will end up choosing football, take the money and hopefully he becomes a starting QB with some longevity

What I worry about it the size and is he more Tim Tebow or more Russell Wilson?
I'd hate to see him be a fringe NFL QB or get seriously hurt playing NFL and the try baseball and then become nothing because he came back too late or had an injury
A kid with this much talent is one I'll always be rooting for. Hopefully he follows his heart and picks the sport which truly satisfies him, not just for the money
 

Danny_Darwin

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Granted the astronomical numbers tossed out by Boras haven't materialized but Machado and Harper will still likely sign for somewhere in the neighborhood of 3x the guaranteed money than anyone in the NFL has gotten (highest guaranteed # I found for an NFL player is $94 million for Matt Ryan).
Of course, that money comes 6 years into a career so the money on the front-end favors the NFL but it's much higher in MLB - and fully guaranteed
Ok, sure, if Murray is as good as Harper or Machado, two players on a plausible Hall-of-Fame trajectory, he’ll get paid. Although, even then, the markets on those two players have been softer than many people expected. More than likely, he will encounter the same freeze that’s affected basically everyone since the start of last offseason (unless something changes in a big way between now and then).

I’ve also seen some people arguing that modern-day NFL football isn’t as dangerous for QBs as it is for other players, but I’ll defer to NFL fans on that one.
 

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If Murray washes out as an NFL QB, wouldn't baseball still be an option? If he really has MLB-level talent, barring injury (which is a realistic concern), he should still have a shot. If not with the Oakland than someone. Given that he'll be paid more up front in the NFL and will find out much, much faster if football is going to work out for him, going to the NFL seems a no-brainer to me.

Edit: Put more simply, I think Murray has a better chance of playing baseball if football doesn't work out than he has playing football if baseball doesn't work out.
It seems like the opposite would be true. Football careers aren't short because it's something only bodies in their early 20s can do, it's the permanent injuries that stop them, no matter what your age. Someone who gave baseball a try for a few years would still be in nearly pristine physical condition to switch over to football, whereas someone who played in the NFL for a couple years may no longer be capable of playing any sport professionally anymore.
 

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It seems like the opposite would be true. Football careers aren't short because it's something only bodies in their early 20s can do, it's the permanent injuries that stop them, no matter what your age. Someone who gave baseball a try for a few years would still be in nearly pristine physical condition to switch over to football, whereas someone who played in the NFL for a couple years may no longer be capable of playing any sport professionally anymore.
Well. here is my reasoning:

1) Murray will likely find out within a year or three if he has a good chance to reach his football potential. Probably closer to one year than three if his height is really going to be an issue for him. If he goes the baseball route, how long does that take in the minors? Three years in the minors, maybe more? I think he finds out if either sport doesn't work for him faster in the NFL than in MLB.

2) I don't think he is likely to be a successful QB in the NFL if he is away from football for three years or more.

3) Curly brings up a good point about the challenge of hitting a baseball, but I think Murray could be away from baseball for less time, and I think there are probably more things he can do on his own to get some hitting work done while he is still playing football.

4) Permanent injury is much more of an obvious risk in the NFL, but one that Murray is getting compensated for on an NFL team up front. If he gets seriously injured in the minors (less likely), he's probably screwed and just becomes another washed out prospect. But yeah, I think the injury risk is still probably the best argument for baseball first.

Anyway, all these factors are fun to speculate about, but the most guaranteed money is probably the biggest factor in his decision. Murray also knows which sport he like more and maybe he isn't equally gifted in both sports to the same degree, and knows that too. Still, fun to speculate about with baseball done and the NFL winding down.
 

Pandarama

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If he goes the baseball route, how long does that take in the minors? Three years in the minors, maybe more? I think he finds out if either sport doesn't work for him faster in the NFL than in MLB.
Bo Jackson won the Heisman in 1985 and played in 25 MLB games for KC in 1986, then 116 in 1987 (putting up a 94 OPS+ in that season).

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jacksbo01.shtml

Of course, that MLB timeline may be a hair too aggressive for all players not named Bo.
 

natpastime162

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Well. here is my reasoning:

1) Murray will likely find out within a year or three if he has a good chance to reach his football potential. Probably closer to one year than three if his height is really going to be an issue for him. If he goes the baseball route, how long does that take in the minors? Three years in the minors, maybe more? I think he finds out if either sport doesn't work for him faster in the NFL than in MLB.

2) I don't think he is likely to be a successful QB in the NFL if he is away from football for three years or more.

3) Curly brings up a good point about the challenge of hitting a baseball, but I think Murray could be away from baseball for less time, and I think there are probably more things he can do on his own to get some hitting work done while he is still playing football.

4) Permanent injury is much more of an obvious risk in the NFL, but one that Murray is getting compensated for on an NFL team up front. If he gets seriously injured in the minors (less likely), he's probably screwed and just becomes another washed out prospect. But yeah, I think the injury risk is still probably the best argument for baseball first.

Anyway, all these factors are fun to speculate about, but the most guaranteed money is probably the biggest factor in his decision. Murray also knows which sport he like more and maybe he isn't equally gifted in both sports to the same degree, and knows that too. Still, fun to speculate about with baseball done and the NFL winding down.
<SSS Alert>

In the context of professional football and baseball only, the list of players that chose a sport, failed to produce, and succeeded in the other are extremely limited. Ignoring players that declined opportunity (e.g., John Elway, Joe Mauer, Dave Winfield), two-sport collegiate athletes (Frank Thomas, Todd Helton), or never seriously pursued both (Russell Wilson, Cedric Benson), the list is short. Josh Booty, Drew Henson, Chris Weinke, Chad Hutchinson, and Brandon Weeden are all uninspiring examples. Does Corey Jenkins count as a success story? Perhaps just as importantly, all those players failed in the minor leagues before attempting an NFL career. I've been racking my brain and searching for NFL turned MLB players and keep coming up empty. Sure, Bo Jackson and Brian Jordan are success stories, but they didn't fail and instead possessed the skill to succeed at both. Obviously, there is confirmation bias in this exercise. Extremely talented players usually focus on one sport and succeed on their first try.
 

Ford Frick's Asterisk

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DJ Dozier is one who comes to mind as trying the NFL first. He was actually attempting to do both, it's just that his NFL career fizzled out while he was still playing baseball in the minors, and then his brief major league "career" began and ended a year later.

*
 

Bergs

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Dionne Sanders comes to mind.
Playing in 9 MLB seasons with a career OPS+ of 89 doesn't quite strike me as "failing"...I mean, he was no perennial all-star or anything, but it's hard to say he "failed."
 

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I guess part of the question is where Murray is estimated to go in the NFL draft?

McShay believes he will be a first-round pick, while Kiper thinks he'd go on Day 2 in April. Murray is a dynamic dual-threat quarterback, but his true height is an issue for football. Not so much on the baseball diamond.
http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2019/story/_/id/25548365/meet-2019-nfl-draft-quarterback-class-everything-need-know

So Lamar Jackson (also former Heisman winner and longer body of work in the FBS) in the above table got a 9m contract and a 5m bonus. Murray all ready has the 5m. 15m clearly tips the scales towards baseball, as it seems Murray projects as a late first - early second round NFL pick.

Does him possibly / likely getting drafted as backup, thus limiting exposure / injuries hurt or help? Murray would be the shortest QB (5'11") since Flutie. That matters. THe ESPN people (ya ya) have him #6-8 in terms of QBs. The massive 20-30m payday likely won't be there for him. So is the NFL 5m draft money to be backup and less chance injury entice him enough? Or go with the less rough, higher chance of long career, bigger payday down the road win out for baseball.

Personally I'd go with baseball. Has the 5m in pocket regardless. And while ya, he has to wait 6 years for next payday, but it seems like that has a higher likelihood of happening compared to a late first / early second round pick as an undersized QB and then getting a whopping contract in 3-4 years in the NFL.
 

axx

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Teams have gotten stupid with QBs though. So I wouldn't rule out him going in the first round.

I will say that I get the feeling that he thinks he's not good enough to get to the majors.
 

DanoooME

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Does him possibly / likely getting drafted as backup, thus limiting exposure / injuries hurt or help? Murray would be the shortest QB (5'11") since Flutie. That matters. THe ESPN people (ya ya) have him #6-8 in terms of QBs. The massive 20-30m payday likely won't be there for him. So is the NFL 5m draft money to be backup and less chance injury entice him enough? Or go with the less rough, higher chance of long career, bigger payday down the road win out for baseball.
Russell Wilson is 5'10 5/8". Murray's skill set seems to be similar to Wilson's, although I think Wilson is more elusive, while Murray has better top speed. He doesn't have Wilson's touch, particularly on the deep pass, but few do. There's inherent bias against shorter QBs, although you'd think the recent success of Brees and Wilson would have tempered some of that. If you're good, you're good.

It's going to come down to need and when they draft. You're looking at the following teams likely changing QBs after this season: Dolphins (drafts 13th), Jaguars (7th), Buccaneers (5th), Giants (6th) with a few other possibilities based on cap considerations and health like the Bengals (11th), Washington (15th), Titans (19th), Broncos (10th), Raiders (4th). There are teams like the Pats, Chargers, Steelers, Saints that have aging QBs that will need to be replaced, but likely won't be picking replacements this year in the first round. The market is kind of limited, but so are the viable first round options (Haskins, Lock, maybe Jones). There won't be much competition from free agency either (Bridgewater, maybe Flacco, maybe Tannehill).

The NFL combine will help tell the tale. If he does well, it's likely he shoots to the top of the draft board and teams may fight for an opportunity to trade up and get him and he'll get his payday.
 

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This is Boras attempting to find a loophole that will maybe help blow up the MLB slotting system. Good for him!

If Kyler Murray is worth $15 million, it shows what a collassal restraint on free trade the draft really is. Not sure how that plays into employment law and collective bargainning but I hope a little. The MLB players union and MLB owners couldn’t collectively bargain to force draftees to play for free right?
It’s been awhile since I briefed this, but generally applicable minimum labor standards (e.g. minimum wage and child labor laws) apply, even in the case of a CBA. We tried to challenge prevailing wage laws that were set by the biggest union in the locality as not true minimum labor standards (because they were de facto negotiable, even during the year term for which the prevailing wage was set), and thus preempted by federal labor law in favor of CBAs, and lost at the Second Circuit.

He hasn’t got a shot in hell of challenging the draft slotting system on labor law grounds.
 

Plympton91

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It’s been awhile since I briefed this, but generally applicable minimum labor standards (e.g. minimum wage and child labor laws) apply, even in the case of a CBA. We tried to challenge prevailing wage laws that were set by the biggest union in the locality as not true minimum labor standards (because they were de facto negotiable, even during the year term for which the prevailing wage was set), and thus preempted by federal labor law in favor of CBAs, and lost at the Second Circuit.

He hasn’t got a shot in hell of challenging the draft slotting system on labor law grounds.
Thanks.
 

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A blessing and a curse to be that talented. If he doesn’t have great success in the sport he chooses, the second guessing in the digital social media will be brutal. The interview questions will be relentless. Baseball will allow him to fly under the radar a little more towards maturity. Tough choices, good problem to have.
 

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Murray announced he will be playing football, not baseball. He will return most of his bonus to OAK, who don’t get a compensation pick.
 

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Murray announced he will be playing football, not baseball. He will return most of his bonus to OAK, who don’t get a compensation pick.
He keeps about $260K ... and never bothers to mention the A's (not even a quick "thanks, but ..") in his statement. Weak sauce.

Maybe he'll send them a fruit basket
 

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The hot takes on this are interesting -- it's seen as a condemnation of baseball's inability to develop/attract stars. And I suppose this whole offseason -- the top FAs going unsigned, the game considering all kinds of extreme measures to "improve" it -- has been pretty bad for baseball in general.
 

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As I've mentioned before, I hope he chose the sport that he loves the most, not the one that pays the most.

I do wish him success in football. Either way, he'll have a magnifying glass on him through his entire life and questions about if he made the right choice will abound if he's not successful in football (of baseball if the choice was made the other way).
 

moondog80

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Boras was adamant that Murray was going to pursue a baseball career, he can't be too happy about this.
 

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Boras was adamant that Murray was going to pursue a baseball career, he can't be too happy about this.
Boras is having a pretty disastrous few months, he has a ton of unsigned guys still including Harper.
 

Danny_Darwin

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The hot takes on this are interesting -- it's seen as a condemnation of baseball's inability to develop/attract stars. And I suppose this whole offseason -- the top FAs going unsigned, the game considering all kinds of extreme measures to "improve" it -- has been pretty bad for baseball in general.
Something I was thinking about back when this was first going down was the idea that Murray would almost certainly have instantly become the most famous MLB player if he made it that far, even if he turned out to be mediocre. Right now, he might be more famous than Trout, Harper, Judge, Betts, Verlander, etc. to even some casual fans.
 

moondog80

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I couldn't find it in like three articles. Why does he get to keep any money?
I guess he did play for the organization for a couple of months?

Murray and Boras look pretty bad here. Good luck to the next kid who asks for a chance to play another sport while signing a huge guarantee.

EDIT: Based on how firmly Boras reassured everyone last December that Murray was a baseball player, I suspect he's pissed about this.
 
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EvilEmpire

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I don't think Murray looks bad at all. Oakland knew the risks. MLB teams have so much disproportionate power over young players, I don't begrudge the kids at all for playing by those rules to a teams' detriment.
 

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I hate it when workers do what they want to do, taking advantage of venerable legal principles while doing so.
 

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Something I was thinking about back when this was first going down was the idea that Murray would almost certainly have instantly become the most famous MLB player if he made it that far, even if he turned out to be mediocre. Right now, he might be more famous than Trout, Harper, Judge, Betts, Verlander, etc. to even some casual fans.
Clearly you’re forgetting about 31 year old mediocrity and future Met Tim Tebow.