Rather than glom onto last year's Mookie thread, I thought it would be helpful to have a new one so that we could discuss Mookie's 2019 season. First, some stats to get us started:
The immediate take is that Mookie is either regressing to his true talent level or he's having an MVP hangover - and possibly a little bit of both. So far, his 2019 more closely resembles his 2017 - a very good season just shy of being great. But when you dig a little deeper, this season is very much unlike his previous campaigns. For starters, Mookie is walking more than he every has in his career:
This data suggests that he's being much more selective - or is being pitched to much more carefully - than previous seasons. He's swinging a pitches out of the zone less often but, when he does, he's making contact at a higher rate. His swinging strike rate is also the lowest it's been by a large margin. So that explains the jump in walks but what happens when he makes contact?
The quality of his contact isn't as good as it was last year, but it's still better than his previous highs. His barrel %, exit velocity, launch angle, hard hit % are all 2nd best of his career, which would imply that this year is shaping up to be one of his bests. But, what are his fWAR and bWAR projections so much lower than last years's? In short, his base running and defense hasn't been good, at least on paper:
Mookie's BsR and Def metrics on Fangraphs are the lowest of his career and his speed metrics, though not that far off his previous seasons, show that he's a tad slower. He's made some uncharacteristically bone head plays on the bases and in the outfield early in the season, which could be weighing everything down, but it does seem like Mookie's operating at a gear or two below what he was doing last year.
So what say ye, SoSH? Is Mookie still shaking off the post-MVP doldrums, as his performance over the past month might suggest? Or is this closer to his true talent level?
Year | R | HR | SB | TB | fWAR | bWAR |
2015 | 92 | 18 | 21 | 286 | 4.8 | 5.9 |
2016 | 122 | 31 | 26 | 359 | 8.3 | 9.7 |
2017 | 101 | 24 | 26 | 288 | 5.3 | 6.4 |
2018 | 129 | 32 | 30 | 333 | 10.4 | 10.9 |
2019 | 42 | 8 | 5 | 89 | 1.6 | 2.3 |
Projected | 128 | 24 | 15 | 272 | 4.9 | 7.0 |
Year | WRC+ | PA | Avg | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO |
2015 | 120 | 654 | 0.291 | 0.341 | 0.479 | 0.820 | 0.188 |
2016 | 136 | 730 | 0.318 | 0.363 | 0.534 | 0.897 | 0.216 |
2017 | 106 | 712 | 0.264 | 0.344 | 0.459 | 0.803 | 0.194 |
2018 | 185 | 614 | 0.346 | 0.438 | 0.64 | 1.078 | 0.294 |
2019 | 134 | 222 | 0.290 | 0.405 | 0.486 | 0.891 | 0.197 |
The immediate take is that Mookie is either regressing to his true talent level or he's having an MVP hangover - and possibly a little bit of both. So far, his 2019 more closely resembles his 2017 - a very good season just shy of being great. But when you dig a little deeper, this season is very much unlike his previous campaigns. For starters, Mookie is walking more than he every has in his career:
Year | bb% | kk% | O-Swing % | Z-Swing % | Swing % | O-Contact % | Z-contact % | SwSt % |
2015 | 7.0% | 12.5% | 25.3% | 55.7% | 40.2% | 72.9% | 93.1% | 5.4% |
2016 | 6.7% | 11.0% | 25.5% | 58.4% | 41.2% | 71.6% | 94.8% | 5.2% |
2017 | 10.8% | 11.1% | 22.1% | 53.8% | 36.0% | 72.6% | 92.7% | 5.0% |
2018 | 13.2% | 14.8% | 19.8% | 57.0% | 35.6% | 70.7% | 93.0% | 5.0% |
2019 | 15.8% | 14.9% | 18.1% | 59.1% | 35.9% | 78.4% | 93.0% | 4.0% |
This data suggests that he's being much more selective - or is being pitched to much more carefully - than previous seasons. He's swinging a pitches out of the zone less often but, when he does, he's making contact at a higher rate. His swinging strike rate is also the lowest it's been by a large margin. So that explains the jump in walks but what happens when he makes contact?
Year | barrel % | exit velocity | launch angle | XBA | XSLG | HARD % |
2015 | 5.9% | 89.9 | 15.0 | 0.29 | 0.454 | 37.4% |
2016 | 5.3% | 89.7 | 12.5 | 0.289 | 0.457 | 39.6% |
2017 | 4.5% | 88.4 | 14.1 | 0.279 | 0.444 | 37.9% |
2018 | 14.1% | 92.2 | 18.3 | 0.314 | 0.510 | 50.2% |
2019 | 10.5% | 90.0 | 17.2 | 0.269 | 0.486 | 44.4% |
The quality of his contact isn't as good as it was last year, but it's still better than his previous highs. His barrel %, exit velocity, launch angle, hard hit % are all 2nd best of his career, which would imply that this year is shaping up to be one of his bests. But, what are his fWAR and bWAR projections so much lower than last years's? In short, his base running and defense hasn't been good, at least on paper:
Year | BsR | Sprint Speed | HP to 1st | Def | OAA | Catch % Added |
2015 | 7.9 | 28.7 | - | 0.5 | - | - |
2016 | 10.6 | 27.9 | - | 14 | 6 | 5 |
2017 | 9.2 | 27.9 | 4.21 | 14.3 | 20 | 4 |
2018 | 6.9 | 28.1 | 4.18 | 11.6 | 7 | 4 |
2019 | -0.7 | 27.8 | 4.32 | -0.8 | 5 | 3 |
Mookie's BsR and Def metrics on Fangraphs are the lowest of his career and his speed metrics, though not that far off his previous seasons, show that he's a tad slower. He's made some uncharacteristically bone head plays on the bases and in the outfield early in the season, which could be weighing everything down, but it does seem like Mookie's operating at a gear or two below what he was doing last year.
So what say ye, SoSH? Is Mookie still shaking off the post-MVP doldrums, as his performance over the past month might suggest? Or is this closer to his true talent level?