Mayer went 3/4 with a 2b and bb.
Blaze 2/4 with his 4th HR in Greenville.
Lugo 1/4 with his 10th triple of the season.
Blaze 2/4 with his 4th HR in Greenville.
Lugo 1/4 with his 10th triple of the season.
Not meant to be meaningful. It's what happened. It's news. Besides that, with 19 year old kids, 100 PA samples can be extremely meaningful.100 PA samples are small enough to not be particularly meaningful; splitting them even further makes streaks even more prominent. I have no idea if Jordan can hit for power or not; but 50 PA doesnt really say anything - thats less than two weeks of games. Devers was awful for 3 weeks recently - what does that mean? Probably nothing.
These late season promotions arent about how guys do at the higher level - its all about setting them up to hit the ground running at that level next year,.
I can't speak specifically to Greenville but there's a lot of encouraging stuff re: Blaze Jordan. The commitment to fitness, the low K%, hitting for contact. He hasn't hit for as much power as expected but he's still 19 and did just transform his body. His ISO in Greenville is .140 and in Salem it was .159. For someone with a 1b/DH projection, that will have to improve. He has plus raw power though, just has to find a way to tap into it.On the latest sox prospects podcast, Ian Cundall did a trip to greenville and saw Blaze and talked to some scouts about the velocity thing and the consensus was he had improved on that front. Encouraging news.
For the year in AAA (including PCL): 313 PA, .273/.337/.528, .293 BAbip. 36 xbh/17 HR. 26bb/62k. 19.8% K%, 8.3% BB%.My dad gave me a call,” Valdez said through Worcester bench coach and translator Jose Flores. “He said, ‘You’re doing this and you’re taking your eye off the ball at the very last second. So just make sure you see the ball all the way to the point of contact and you should be able to control that better. "
"Once the season is over and I go back home, I wish I could do a lot more things but my dad is a baseball freak,” Valdez joked. “So he tells me I need to be at the ballpark and working out a lot. It’s constant baseball. That’s his job and his hobby as well."
Any good reports on how Mayer has been in the field?Marcelo Mayer: The jewel of the organization, he didn't disappoint. There wasn't much to dislike about Mayer's 2022 campaign, though the strikeouts are worth watching. After being promoted, he went 1/18. The next 97 PA, he hit .313/.433/.538, .396 BAbip, 16bb/23k, 9 xbh/4 HR. Those numbers are very similar to his numbers in Salem.
Overall: 91 games, 424 PA, .280/.399/.489, .365 BAbip, 68bb/107k, 45 xbh/13 HR. 17/17 sb. 16.0% BB%, 25.2% K%.
Worth noting: Over his last 21 games in Salem, he had 28bb/21k in 103 PA. He really started to figure out the league. Prior to that, he was at 23bb/57k in 205 PA. Pretty stark difference.
Nathan Hickey: The Red Sox 5th round pick in 2021 (closer to 2nd-3rd round money). He had an incredibly encouraging season with the bat. While a lot of his value depends on if he can stick behind the plate (projects to below average), there's now reason to believe he might hit enough for 1b or LF. Had just as much success in Greenville as Salem, though more power, less bb, more ks.. We will know more about him next year when he's at an age appropriate level at Portland but he mashed this year. Got overshadowed a bit by Kavadas but Hickey's probably the better prospect. It's close.
75 games, 328 PA, .263/.415/.522, .309 BAbip, 63bb/78k. 34xbh/16 HR. 19.2% BB%, 23.8% K% (26.7% in A+).
Blaze Jordan: He's started playing a bit more at 1b this year and will have to hit for more power than he has if he plans to make the majors. His power will largely depend on how his hit tool develops. He seems to be dedicated and a hard worker, having gotten into much better shape after being drafted. Still really young.
120 games, 521 PA, .289/.363/.445, .339 BAbip, 48bb/94k, 45xbh/12 HR. 9.2% BB%, 18.0% K% (25.5% in A+)
Nick Yorke: Yorke really struggled in his age 20 season, failing to hit for average or much power. Especially disappointing considering how well he did last year. He's fell out of some top 100 lists and his value has definitely taken a hit. He's also been fighting injures all year and has had some bad BAbip luck. Next year will be a telling year in AA, though AA always tells us a lot.
80 games, 373 PA, .232/.303/.365, .288 BAbip, 33bb/94k, 22 xbh/11 HR, 8.8% BB%, 25.2% K%,
Matthew Lugo: The 2nd round pick of 2019 got some press early on with a hot start to the season. He struggled mightily in July and fell out of the public eye some. He had a monster finish to the year to get some of the attention back. He should also start next year in Portland, probably at 2b or 3b. More than doubled his ISO year over year.
114 games, 512 PA, .288/.344/.500, .330 BAbip, 35bb/100k, 53 xbh/18 HR. 20/27 sb. 6.8% BB%, 19.5% K%.
Wikelman Gonzalez: Big time arm and still only 20 years old. Was a completely different pitcher since August, earning himself a promotion to A+ where he continued to do well.
Year: 25 games, 4.21 era, 98.1 ip, 54bb/121k, 1.322 WHIP. 28.3% K%, 12.6% BB%.
Last 7: 2.18 era, 33.0 ip, 10bb/39k, .970 WHIP. 29.3% K%, 7.5% BB%. In A+, it's 32.9% K%, 8.6% BB in 17.0 ip.
Luis Guerrero: I think the rankings are dragging behind the results and the scouting reports or there's just a very strong bias against bullpen arms (there is). But even here, no one really mentions him. Out of actual relief prospects, he's probably the best. He sits in the high 90s and tops out at 100. His velocity has improved drastically since being drafted last year. His fastball and splitter are potential plus offerings and his slider is potentially average. Reportedly has a curveball too but maybe he ditched it. It's his splitter that really separates him from the pack though.
Year: 27 games, 3.23 era, 39.0 ip, 17bb/59k. 1.103 WHIP. 35.5% K%, 10.2% BB%.
A+: 7 games, 2.08 era, 13.0 ip, 3bb/19k. 1.077 WHIP, 34.5% K%, 5.5% BB%.
last 18.1 ip, 4bb/30k.
Juan Daniel Encarnacion: Has an intriguing mix of pitches and has seen an uptick in velocity. If that continues to improve, he becomes an interesting arm.
26 games, 4.05 era, 113.1 ip, 42bb/129k, 1.271 WHIP. 26.5% K%, 8.6% BB%.
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4 of Greenville's every day players will be 20 years old next year. Mayer, Jordan, Bonaci, Paulino. The last Red Sox player (positional anyway) to make Portland in their age 20 season is Rafael Devers in 2017. Then Margot in 2015, Bogaerts (20) in 2013, Bogaerts (19) in 2012,Heiker Meneses (known filler even at 20) in 2012, Heiker (filler at 19, too) in 2011, Jose Iglesias in 2010, Anthony Rizzo in 2010, Lars Anderson in 2008, Josh Reddick in 2007 (barely, 1 PA), Hanley Ramirez 2004.
Over the last 20 years, the Red Sox have had 9 players reach Portland by age 20 or younger. One was known to be organizational filler in Heiker. Lars flamed out before making the majors. Devers, Bogaerts, Rizzo and Hanley were smashing successes. Iglesias and Reddick had/are having solid careers. Margot is on his way to having a good career. That's an insanely good list and the Sox have a chance to have 4 players make AA next year by age 20. 7 of 9 went on to be (maybe even above) average players or better.
It's all been encouraging but it's hard to tell how much is projection and how much is now. Like, WMB was projected to be a GG. Instead, he was merely average. I'm guessing Mayer is going to be at least fringe average at SS given the reports, probably better than that. I'm just not sure how good he is at the moment, maybe he's already fringe average. Where as someone like Luis Ravelo could play plus defense at the MLB level right now. There's no projection.Any good reports on how Mayer has been in the field?
I like Kavadas.... .but as a 23 year old in Portland isn't he old for the league? And as a poor defensive 1B, he seems likely to be at best a DH. Have they tried him in the OF? Will his bat hold up enough to cover his defensive shortcomings? My take on him is that he's another AAAA guy (like Binelas) that might catch on with another team and put together one or two above average seasons but nothing spectacular.David Laurila has a piece on Niko Kavadas on Fangraphs today. Here's one quote:
I recently asked Portland Sea Dogs development coach Katie Krall what makes Boston’s 2022 Minor League Player of the Year as good as he is.
“Niko understands his thumbprint as a hitter,” she said of Kavadas, who came to the plate 515 times and augmented his 110 hits with 102 walks. “He knows where he does damage. He’s got a disciplined approach in terms of the types of pitches he’s looking to hit and doesn’t chase a lot. If you look at his heat map, he does most of his damage belt to below, so a message we’ve tried to hammer home with him is to focus on that. He’s really bought into it. Even here in Double-A, where he hasn’t had the same results that he did in Greenville, the underlying processes are trending in the right direction.”
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/red-sox-milb-player-of-the-year-niko-kavadas-crushes-baseballs/
He was a college draftee. All college draftees are old for the league. He did what he was supposed to do though and then some.I like Kavadas.... .but as a 23 year old in Portland isn't he old for the league? And as a poor defensive 1B, he seems likely to be at best a DH. Have they tried him in the OF? Will his bat hold up enough to cover his defensive shortcomings? My take on him is that he's another AAAA guy (like Binelas) that might catch on with another team and put together one or two above average seasons but nothing spectacular.
He listed standouts and strugglers at the various positions:For most players aside from Rafaela and perhaps Eddinson Paulino, it was a year of steady progress rather than breakouts. For others such as 2020 first-rounder Nick Yorke, it was a season of learning through struggles and adversity.
Perhaps most significantly, the big league arrivals of Bello and Casas represented the emergence of potential cornerstone players, with more to come from a farm system that no longer requires evaluators to squint to see future contributors.
Hey, someone else giving love to Eddinson Paulino. I'm not sure how he wasn't a stand out though. He had a better year than Blaze Jordan and almost every publication has him ranked higher than Blaze Jordan. He also showed some promise in CF. I'd put Matthew Lugo's season over Blaze Jordan's too.Speier has a nice general overview of this year's minor league system in the Glob.
He listed standouts and strugglers at the various positions:
Standouts: Marcelo Mayer, Ceddanne Rafaela, Miguel Bleis, Triston Casas, Niko Kavadas, Enmanuel Valdez, Blaze Jordan, Nathan Hickey, Bryan Mata, Brandon Walter
Struggled: Nick Yorke, Jeter Downs. Alex Binelas
Only because Bello isn't a prospect. Everyone moved up a spot.Sox Prospects dropped their monthly rankings today. Bleis up to number 3, Rafaela up to 4..
Some Sox minor league years have been especially memorable for different reasons, such as the ridiculous 2007 Lancaster JetHawks desert 200+ home run team, the great 2014 Portland team, and what I call the golden age when we had X, Mookie, 10D and Devers coming up. To me, this year was memorable because of Ceddanne. He came out of nowhere to shock, excite, awe and enchant us - especially when you consider he's only 5'8'' and 150 lbs and also looks eerily like Mookie B at the plate!!Speier has a nice general overview of this year's minor league system in the Glob.
He listed standouts and strugglers at the various positions:
Standouts: Marcelo Mayer, Ceddanne Rafaela, Miguel Bleis, Triston Casas, Niko Kavadas, Enmanuel Valdez, Blaze Jordan, Nathan Hickey, Bryan Mata, Brandon Walter
Gotcha, the rankings had him as 8 in parenthesis, so I guess that was start of the season and not the previous rankings.Only because Bello isn't a prospect. Everyone moved up a spot.
Kinda surprised they removed them. They are always slow with graduating players.
FWIW, the number in parenthesis on Sox Prospects was their ranking to start the season.Gotcha, the rankings had him as 8 in parenthesis, so I guess that was start of the season and not the previous rankings.
Thanks again for everything you've done in this thread!
Can he hit a fastball though?Ah, found the Hauser analysis! This was the interesting part to me:
So once you weed out the really terrible defenders, you get a list of 15 ... with a lot of NBA players on there. Curry, of course. Kispert. Duncan Robinson. Cameron Johnson. Desmond Bane. Of the bunch, Hauser has the best three-point shooting percentage. His block rate is also near the top. When I first saw him in summer league, I thought he was a crap defender and wouldn't last long in the NBA. Since then, I've seen some promising signs that have left me less sure.
His primary course of study: laying off pitches that other hitters might swing at and miss, but which he tends to actually hit for soft contact and easy outs.
“Sometimes, it’s a bad pitch, and I know I can hit it,” Rafaela said. “That’s why I’m going to Puerto Rico.”
Making contact is a viable and valuable skill, but Rafaela is so good at it that he ends up connecting with pitches he can’t possibly drive. A lesser hitter might swing and miss for strike one, but Rafaela has a tendency to roll over or pop up for a quick out. It’s a bad result, unless you’re in the business of teaching hitters that they really do need to be more selective at the plate.
This is devastating. Easily the fan favorite. He'd often throw ad hoc barbecues together for his teammates in the parking lot.
Come on down, Theo Denlinger, who, if it's possible, sounds even more interesting than Big Joe Davis!This is devastating. Easily the fan favorite. He'd often throw ad hoc barbecues together for his teammates in the parking lot.