Minor league thread 2022

Cesar Crespo

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This includes tonight.
Until June 30th, Mayer had 22bb/56k in 194PA. 11.3% BB%/28.9% K%
Since July 1st, Mayer has 34bb/29k in 152 PA. 22.4% BB%/19.1% K%.

5bb/7k in 38 PA at AA.
First 19: 1bb/6k.
Last 19: 4bb/1k.


Interesting. Obviously the AA is SSS but he's clearly made some progress with his plate discipline as the season as progressed.
 

Diamond Don Aase

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It's really hard to see what their strategy actually is regarding pitching. Signing young DSL guys seems like part of it. But in the last 2 (3, but 2020) drafts, the Red Sox have only drafted 1 HS arm. That was Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz. In 2019, they drafted 7 but only signed 2. They haven't really invested heavily in pitching in the international draft either.
The strategy of focusing on amateur pitching in quantity rather than quality may yield long-term benefits but it has perpetuated, if not aggravated, an existing weakness in the system. Greenville has the second-worst WHIP in the South Atlantic League, the second-worst ERA in the SAL, and has allowed the second-most home runs in the High-A circuit. Portland pitching appears unlikely to be much better next season.

Unless Bryan Mata repeats the level, Shane Drohan and Thad Ward likely will be the only pitching prospects of note to start the season with the Sea Dogs. This gap was aggravated by Brayan Bello’s rapid ascent, Tommy John surgeries for Bradley Blalock and Jeremy Wu-Yelland, and Grant Gambrell seemingly being asploded by lightning, but it was hardly unforeseeable.

Bello remaining healthy and at least one of Connor Seabold, Brandon Walter, or Josh Winckowski developing further might mitigate the impact on the parent club but it is far from an ideal situation for an organization approaching 2023 with just Kutter Crawford readily positioned to be an established major-league starter under the age of 30.
 

bosox188

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This includes tonight.
Until June 30th, Mayer had 22bb/56k in 194PA. 11.3% BB%/28.9% K%
Since July 1st, Mayer has 34bb/29k in 152 PA. 22.4% BB%/19.1% K%.

5bb/7k in 38 PA at AA.
First 19: 1bb/6k.
Last 19: 4bb/1k.


Interesting. Obviously the AA is SSS but he's clearly made some progress with his plate discipline as the season as progressed.
I think you mean High A for his recent numbers, else we'd all be doing cartwheels if he was doing that already in AA. I still kind of am...
 

Cesar Crespo

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Mata went 5.0 ip, 2 hits, 1 r/0er, 3bb/6k..
Kavadas is 0/3 atm.

Valdez is currently 0/0 with 3bb.
Casas is 1/2 with a 2b, k.

edit: huh, Mata isn't done yet. He was at 82 pitches after 5.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dobbins had a mixed game but is only hat 72 pitches. I'm guessing he's done though. 5.0 ip, 6 hits, 5r/5er, 2bb/9k. At one point, he struck out 7 straight batters.

Meidroth also hit HR#2. He might actually be worth watching. He's really young for a college Jr and he's mashing so far.

Mata finished with 96 pitches. 6.0 ip, 4 hits, 1r/0er, 3bb/7k.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Jud Fabian is 3/4 in tonight's game vs Salem and 13/24 to start his career with 9bb/6k. 5 doubles, 1 HR.

That will suck if he's awesome. Nothing the Sox could do.
 

LoLsapien

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Six walks in two days for Valdez. Clearly too advanced a batting eye for the level. Time to promote the kid to see how he does against more advanced pitching.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Just got his 3rd double of the night. Jeez

First 4 games in FCL 5/10 with 6bb/4k. .500/.647/.600
First 3 games in A 8/13 with 3bb/2k. .615/.688/1.231

Overall: .565/.667/.957 in 33 PA. 9b/6k. Holy.

edit: Fabian.
 

Sin Duda

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I know Kavadas is old for A ball, but how often have we seen a Red Sox prospect promoted from Low A to High A to AA in one season?
 
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Cesar Crespo

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So yeah, this is technically Chase Meidroth's age 20 season. For reference, he was 17 days younger than sophomore Andrew Benintendi during their respective draft years. Chase is really young for a college junior. A players age for a baseball season is determined by his age on July 1st of that baseball year.

He'll probably start next year in Greenville and if he's doing well, earn a quick promotion to AA where he'll be young for a prospect.

FCL: 11 PA, .375/.545/.375, 2bb/2k.
A: 34 PA, .360/.500/.600, 6bb/5k. 2xbh/2HR.

Total: 45 PA, .364/.511/.545, 8bb/7k, 2HR.

Apparently, he grades out well in all the models too.

It's only 45 PA and he's "old" for the league, but not that old. He was also the only college bat selected by the Sox in the 2022 draft. They drafted 8 hitters out of 21 picks. Signed 6 of them. Signed all 12 arms, 7 seniors, 5 juniors.

The 2022 draft will probably take awhile to pan out but Meidroth could possibly be fast tracked given he's a 3 year college player.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Paulino has 6 multi hit games in a row. 3 of those game he had 3 hits.
Last 32 PA: .517/.531/.690, 2bb/6k.

Now at .262/.351/.447 for the year.
Since May 1st: 392 PA, .276/.368/.463, .328 BAbip. 47bb/73k, 23sb/27sba. 40 xbh/8HR.

vs R: 401 PA, .269/.358/.471, 46bb/74k, 44 xbh/8HR
vs L: 71 PA, .226/.310/.323, 6bb/21k, 4xbh/1HR.

Age 19 season in A ball and he's putting up a .798 OPS for the year and .831 since May. Depending on he matures, some his doubles may turn into HRs. Didn't notice until now that he was 24/28 in SBs. Projects to average at 3b/2b but has moved back to SS since Mayer left. Has also played 11 games in CF. (32-SS/28-3b/28-2b/11-CF/1-LF).

I love how he's not a unanimous top 10 prospect in the organization. (He's in mine, and some others) Though I'm guessing the average age of A ball players has dropped some with the minors shrinking. Being 19 in Salem/Greenville isn't what it used to be.

--
Rafaela has had an unlucky August, slashing .192/.292/.326 with a .235 BAbip. On the bright side, he has 6bb/12k in 54 PA. That saw his BB% for the year climb from 4.7% to 5.6% for the year.
Greenville: 209 PA, .330/.368/.594, .409 BAbip, 30xbh/9 HR, 10bb/51k, 4.8% BB%/24.4% K%, .264 ISO, 14/16 sb/sba.
Portland: 225 PA, .276/.335/.498, .315 BAbip, 24xbh/9HR, 14bb/47k, 6.2% BB%/20.9% k%, .222 ISO, 11/14 sb/sba.

So moving up to AA, he's walking more and striking out less. Still hitting for a decent amount of power. Hard not to see him starting the year in AAA which means he could see time in Boston in 2023. Depending on what the team does, he could be the starting CF in 2024 or the super sub.

--
I wonder if Mata is close to getting a promotion to AAA. At the AA level this year: 2.11 era, 42.2 ip, 30 hits, 14r/10er, 21bb/49k. 28.3% K%, 12.1% BB%. At 96.1 IP for his career at the AA level. Granted the last 50ish innings were forever ago but I could see him getting promoted after 4 more innings.

His last 2 starts: 0.00 era, 12.0 ip, 9 hits, 1r/0er, 3bb/13k.

--
Nick Yorke is 2/14 with 6k over his last 3 games after showing some signs of life in the 8 games prior. Now at .237/.303/.424 for August. If he's going to finish with a bang, he better get going. .232/.299/.364 for the year.

--
Romero is 0/4
Castro is 2/4, 2sb.
C. Coffey is 0/4 with 2k. 0/21 with 6bb/10 to start his career. This is not good. Hopefully it doesn't get in his head.
Brand made his debut. 1.0 ip, 1 hit, 2k.
I. Coffey went 1.0 ip.
 
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Heating up in the bullpen

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@Cesar Crespo, I just want to thank you profusely for your work in this thread.
This post doesn’t add much, but I agree.

What I will add is a request/offer: I think it would be interesting to see a position by position review of minor leaguers. The first I’m interested in is catcher. I’ve noticed a couple guys moving up mid-season — first Stephen Scott and recently Kole Cottam. Wondering what the catchers at the lower levels look like. I can do it next week if I don’t see it sooner.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Romero hit his first HR in the 9th as the Sox scored 3, but the rally ended short and they lose 4-3.
 

Jason Bae

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Lugo went 3-5 with 2 homers last night, now hitting .269/.323/.486 with 22 doubles, 9 triples and 15 home runs in 59 games. Hickey also went 2-3 with walks and a homer, now at .257/.400/.457 in 21 games in Greenville.
 

Cesar Crespo

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McDonough is 4/4 with a cycle... in the 6th inning.
Lugo is 3/4 with the 2 HR, double, k.

Rafaela finished 2/4 with a HR, k.
 

Diamond Don Aase

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In Salem, Bonaci and Meidroth both 1/4, Bonaci with a steal of home on a double-steal. SaleSox fall 5-3.
If they were truly the SaleSox, the fall would have broken something.

19-year-old right-hander Luis Perales made his Carolina League debut in Salem’s loss. After allowing a lead-off home run, a single, and a walk while retiring only one of the first four batters, Perales settled down and retired five of the final six batters he faced, three by strikeout.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Matthew Lugo, 21y104d.

2021: 469 PA, .270/.338/.364, .335 BAbip, 113 hits, 21 doubles, 3 triples, 4 HRs, 15/19 sb, 38bb/94k, 8.1% BB%, 20.0% K%, .093 ISO
2022: 433 PA, .275/.329/.508, .309 BAbip, 109 hits, 23 doubles, 9 triples, 17 HRs,13/19sb, 29bb/84k, 6.7% BB%, 19.4% K%, .232 ISO

Outside of power (which is a huge difference), his numbers are eerily similar to last year. He's been a bit less lucky and walked a little less, but nothing major. I heavily prefer when a player adds in game power without a drastic change in their BB%/K%. It suggest the power is mostly from age, rather than altering their swing. Nothing wrong with altering a swing (see Mookie Betts) but when it comes with huge gains in K%, it's usually bad. One would like him to walk a little more but can't argue with a K% under 20. He's also played 3b for the first time this year. He moved there a few games before Marcelo Mayer arrived.

I wonder how Lugo would do in the OF too. I think higher of him than most publications and think he could possibly be an every day player on a 2nd division team. There's always an outside chance he's more than that but that requires some fortunate development. His most likely path to the Majors and sticking is as a utility player. Being able to play the OF as well as the infield would help his cause a lot. Of course, if Rafaela ends up being the ultimate super sub, there's still no spot for Lugo. I think Rafaela may end up an every day player at CF though (he can offer positive value hitting like Jarren Duran).

Lugo's season hasn't been the last 2 games either.

April: 77 PA, .338/.364/.541
May: 101 PA, .264/.350/.506
June: 105 PA, .263/.295/.505
July: 81 PA, .206/.272/.343
August: 69 PA, .318/.377/.667.

Lugo is up to an .835 OPS in his age 21 season at A+. More than age appropriate and most of his skills grade out to average. If he ends up hitting for more power than expected, it changes his profile a bit. In 2021, he had 113 hits and 28 xbh/4 HRs. In 2022, he has 4 less total hits but 21 more xbh and 13 more HRs. This is also in 36 less PA.

This team really has a glut of "interesting" 2b/SS/3b types 21 and under all holding their own in an age relative league outside of Nick Yorke (performance) and Chase Meidroth (a little old for the league, but mashing). Yorke did more than hold his own last year though, and there's a decent chance he rebounds. The others all have OPS north of .800 except Paulino and Bonaci (.797 and .773). Both of them have been hitting really well of late too.

Mayer, Rafaela, Lugo, Paulino, Bonaci, Meidroth, Jordan, Yorke.
Then there are the new players in Romero, Coffey, De Leon, Encarnacion, Santana.

Many should be able to handle multiple positions.

Next year will be interesting to see how they handle the glut in Greenville for the first half. I'd guess Jordan plays 1b and Paulino plays CF. Mayer at SS and Bonaci, Meidroth, Yorke rotate between 2b/3b/DH.
AAA: Rafaela
AA: Lugo
A+: Jordan, Yorke, Meidroth, Bonaci, Paulino, Mayer
A: Romero, Coffey
FCL: De Leon, Encarnacion, Santana

The more I think about it, the more I want the team to try Lugo in the OF. The team really doesn't have any OF prospects (part of that is because a lot of players who end up in RF/LF started their careers at different positions) but a glut of athletic MI. I get the methodology behind keeping players at the premium position as long as possible, but you can continue to play him at other positions. They've slowly started to play Paulino in CF which I think is a smart use of resources. He's putting up close to an .800 OPS in his age 19 season at A ball and he's totally blocked in the MI.

As far as OF prospects, there's Bleis, Rafaela, Paulino and Roman Anthony.

It's been an interesting month with Lugo and Paulino making a surge. One other tidbit

2022
Lugo: 433 PA, .275/.329/.508, .309 BAbip, 49xbh/17 HRs,13/19sb, 29bb/84k, 6.7% BB%, 19.4% K%, .232 ISO
Rafaela: 234 PA, .278/.335/.514, .316 BAbip, 27xbh/10HR, 11/14sb, 14bb/49k, 6.0% BB%, 20.9% K%, .236 ISO (AA)
Rafaela: 443 PA, .303/.351/.553, .360 BAbip, 57xbh/19 HR, 25/30 sb, 24bb/100k, 5.4% BB%, 22.6% K%, .250 ISO (Overall)

Lugo is 233 days younger. Crazy how similar their lines are, especially Rafaela's AA performance. I'm not posting it to "mean" anything other than they are just very similar lines.
 

BigSoxFan

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If Lugo hits the upper echelon of his development projection, what are we looking at here in terms of MLB upside?
 

AlNipper49

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The main issue is he's still at SS in a system awash with them. He is Beltran's nephew so pick a kinda shitty version of him (A complement). .280 with 20 HRs maybe?
 

LogansDad

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The main issue is he's still at SS in a system awash with them. He is Beltran's nephew so pick a kinda shitty version of him (A complement). .280 with 20 HRs maybe?
A "kinda shitty" version of Beltran would be the 2nd best hitter on the Sox right now, so that's exciting.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Jose Ramirez went 5.0 ip, 0 hits, 1bb/10k. He's 21 and in the FCL and not having a notable year.

Romero was 1/3 with a bb, k.
Castro was 1/3 with a bb
Anthony was 0/3 with a bb, k
Coffey was 1/3 with a double, bb, k.

Landry 2.0 ip, 4k.
Brand 1.0 ip, 1 hit, 1k.
Godman 1.0 ip, 1 hit, 2k.

The DSL is a hard league to read and a lot of it is age related and/or repeating the level.

Armando Sierra is repeating the DSL but is still only 18 years old. He was 2/3 with a double. Corner OF type.
Last year: 193 PA, .284/.373/.379, N/A BAbip, 21bb/41k, 12xbh/2 HR.
This year: 215 PA, .308/.395/.465, .322 BAbip, 25bb/22k. 19xbh/5 HR. (not including today)

$150k signing bonus. Hitting for power isn't exactly common in the DSL. The ones who do are usually older, though 18 isn't exactly young for the DSL.

Other interesting DSL performances
Andy Lugo (18, CF/3b) 240 PA, .321/.371/.417, 11bb/34k. 15xbh/2HR. 20/22 sb.
Marvin Alcantara (17, SS) 222 PA, .305/.410/.401, 29bb/33k, 16xbh/1HR. 14/16sb.
Yosander Asensio (17, OF/CF) 198 PA, .284/.462/.385, 45bb/51k, 11 xbh, 15/18 sb.
Freili Encarnacion (17, SS) 169 PA, .255/.337/.372, 15bb/51k, 11xbh/3HR, 9/10 sb.
Johanfran Garcia (17, C) 157 PA, .272/.363/.308, 19bb/25k, 8 xbh, 0/1 sb
Yohander Lopez (17, SS) 176 PA, .273/.324/.373, 11bb/37k, 12 xbh/1HR, 2/4 sb
Franyer Noria (17, 3b/2b) 111 PA, .287/.391/.383, 15bb/24k, 7 xbh, 9/9 sb
Nathaniel Yutin (17, CF) 219 PA, .308/.376/390 17bb/43k, 13 xbh/1HR, 4/10 sb.
 

Jason Bae

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The main issue is he's still at SS in a system awash with them. He is Beltran's nephew so pick a kinda shitty version of him (A complement). .280 with 20 HRs maybe?
Worry about the bat first and position later? It's not the worst problem to have a bunch of shortstops that might have to learn to play other positions IMO. Look at the Rays the last couple of years, the majority of their position players have played at least two positions and quite a few of them have played in the outfield and infield. I'd like for us to mimic that kind of roster versatility.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Worry about the bat first and position later? It's not the worst problem to have a bunch of shortstops that might have to learn to play other positions IMO. Look at the Rays the last couple of years, the majority of their position players have played at least two positions and quite a few of them have played in the outfield and infield. I'd like for us to mimic that kind of roster versatility.
Yeah. .280 and 20 HRs could play in RF with ok/good defense. It would be a huge upgrade to this year's team. Granted, that's like a 5% outcome atm. That may shift a little depending on how he finishes out the year. Of course if he can hit .280/.330/.450 while playing an average 2b/3b, he'd might have more value to another team. Our best outfielder this year is slashing .280/.324/.392 with 7 HRs in 54 more PA (490) than Matthew Lugo.

2021: 113 hits, 21 doubles, 3 triples, 4 HR
2022: 112 hits, 23 doubles, 9 triples, 18 HR, 11 less at bats.

First 83 games of 2021: 375 PA, .250/.310/.315, .312 BAbip, 17xbh/2HR, 26bb/75k, .065 ISO
Last 22 games of 2021: 94 PA, .359/.447/.577, .441 BAbip, 11 xbh/2HR, 12bb/19k, .218 ISO

Much like Rafaela, Lugo started to hit for power at the end of August until season's end last year and it's carried over this year. Unlike Rafaela, Lugo went from abysmal to good. Rafaela went from mediocre to good. At least as far as results go.

--
Nathan Hickey
Salem: 182 PA, .271/.429/.507, .323 BAbip, 39bb/39k, 19xbh/5HR, .236 ISO, 21.4% BB%, 21.4% K%
Greenville: 102 PA, .266/.412/.519, .314 BAbip, 19bb/25k, 10 xbh/5HR, ..253 ISO, 18.6% BB%, 24.5% K%
Overall: 284 PA, .269/.423/.511, .320 BAbip, 58bb/64k, 29 xbh/10 HR, .242 ISO, 20.4% BB%, 22.5% K%,

His K% and BB% in Greenville are somewhat worrisome given his age and the move up in level saw both move the wrong way. Next year will be a big one. If he handles Portland well and proves he can stay behind the dish, he's going to fly up the rankings. Outside chance he hits enough to stick at 1b/LF.

--
Triston Casas
First 36 games: 156 PA, .248/.359/.459, .286 BAbip, 23bb/35k, 15xbh/6HR
Last 32 games: 141 PA, .303/.404/.529, .368 BAbip, 20bb/29k, 18 xbh/4HR
Year: 297 PA, .274/.381/.492, .326 BAbip, 43bb/64k, 33 xbh/10 HR
--
Kavadas in AA, 24 PA, .222/.417/.278, 4bb/7k. 1 xbh.
--
Bryan Mata in AA: 1.85 era, 48.2 ip, 35 hits, 14r/10er, 4 HRA, 23bb/58k. 52.2% GB%, 29.4% K%, 11.7% BB%.
Year: 2.11 era, 59.2 ip, 41 hits, 19r/14er, 5 HRA, 31bb/75k. 51%+ GB%, 30.6% K%, 12.7% BB%.
Last 3 games: 0.00 era, 18.0 ip, 14 hits, 1r/0er, 5bb/22k. 31.0% K%, 7.0% BB%
18.0 and counting without giving up an earned run.
--
Didn't notice Wikelman Gonzalez was promoted to A+. He might make his 2nd appearance today. His first: 4.0 ip, 4 hits, 3r/3r, 2bb/6k.
Luis Guerrero was also promoted: 2 games, 4.50 era, 4.0 ip, 6 hits, 2r/2er, 1bb/5k.

--
Johnfrank Salazar is off to a decent start in Salem: 54 PA, .304/.385/.413, 5bb/10k.
--
Meidroth: 57 PA, .326/.474/.488, 9bb/7k, 3xbh/2HR
Anthony: 40 PA, .429/.475/.486, 4bb/4k, 2xbh
Brannon: 15 PA, .462/.533/.846, 2bb/5k, 3xbh
Coffey: 40 PA, .125/.300/.156, 7bb/11k, 1xbh
Romero : 43 PA, .250/.372/.417, 7bb/4k, 4xbh/1HR

--DSL playoffs
Lugo is 2/3 with a triple
Sierra is 1/3 with a k.
Willian Colmenares went 4.0 ip, 1bb/7k. 17 year old who signed for $125k this year in the IFA period. Prior to today's game: 3.79 era, 40.1 ip, 45 hits, 18r/17er, 18bb/40k,
--FCL semi finals
Brannon is currently 1/1 with a double.




Useful page I totally forgot about: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/affiliate.cgi?id=BOS
 

Cesar Crespo

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FCL Red Sox are currently down 7-4. If they lose, I think their season is officially over. I'd guess a bunch of the players would move to Salem. Salem's season ends on September 11th.
 

LogansDad

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FCL Red Sox are currently down 7-4. If they lose, I think their season is officially over. I'd guess a bunch of the players would move to Salem. Salem's season ends on September 11th.
I haven't been able to watch him play, but do you think Bleis might be a candidate to move up thanks to his markedly improved K rate over the last 3 weeks? Or do you think they wait until next year? Obviously he'd be way young for the league, but he's clearly a very talented player, too.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I haven't been able to watch him play, but do you think Bleis might be a candidate to move up thanks to his markedly improved K rate over the last 3 weeks? Or do you think they wait until next year? Obviously he'd be way young for the league, but he's clearly a very talented player, too.
He hasn't played since 8/11. I think there's a chance he does but it will depend on how his back is.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Wikelman went 4.0, 3 hits, 1bb/5k.

Yorke was 1/4 with HR #10 and a K.
Lugo was 2/3.
Mayer was 0/3 with 3k.
Jordan was 0/3 with 2k.


Game 1 anyway.