Might as well start talking about 2021

JBJ_HOF

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IS it possible he had an underlying injury last year, beyond what he finally got IRed for? It's not like he bulked up, it seems odd a 26 year old guy just loses foot speed.
I don't know, but It hasn't been sudden. His statcast speed percentile by year:

2016: 89th
2017: 80th
2018: 68th
2019: 54th
2020: 43rd
 

Cesar Crespo

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Is this sort of decline typical for someone in their early-to-mid 20s? Or perhaps explainable is a better term. Seems really odd.
Maybe if he added a lot of muscle mass. Happened to Ruben Sierra and Gabe Kapler, or that's the story.

edit: getting fat would probably explain it in some cases too.
 

DeadlySplitter

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The sprint speed is definitely concerning, also the rising K rate in 2019. The rest of the numbers don't seem too far off from his 2017-18 peak? There's every chance he can hit well again. 2020 numbers was an awful slump over 14 games, those shouldn't be on the graphs.
 

E5 Yaz

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That's about as dumb a trade idea as I've seen this offseason.

Verdugo, Casas and Houck are easily in the team's top ... what? ... 10 potential trade chips, and they'd put them in the same trade for a starter, even one as good as Snell?

I'd like to know where the "speculation that this sort of deal could happen" is coming from.
 

Manramsclan

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That's about as dumb a trade idea as I've seen this offseason.

Verdugo, Casas and Houck are easily in the team's top ... what? ... 10 potential trade chips, and they'd put them in the same trade for a starter, even one as good as Snell?

I'd like to know where the "speculation that this sort of deal could happen" is coming from.
In the article, he also suggests that the Padres would trade Morejon, Patino, and Campusano. That's two top 50 prospects in all of MLB (Patino/23 and Campusano/46) and Morejon who was in the top 50 in 2018 and is still only 21.

I'd agree with you that the piece doesn't seem to be reporting "speculation that this sort of deal could happen". Based on those two trades it sounds more like a thought exercise along the lines of "this is what the Rays want when they dangle a pitcher of this magnitude". I really don't see the Padres doing the above deal either.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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In the article, he also suggests that the Padres would trade Morejon, Patino, and Campusano. That's two top 50 prospects in all of MLB (Patino/23 and Campusano/46) and Morejon who was in the top 50 in 2018 and is still only 21.

I'd agree with you that the piece doesn't seem to be reporting "speculation that this sort of deal could happen". Based on those two trades it sounds more like a thought exercise along the lines of "this is what the Rays want when they dangle a pitcher of this magnitude". I really don't see the Padres doing the above deal either.
Snell is signed to a fairly friendly deal for the next three years (3/41), which makes him very valuable, but I agree that this proposal is more of a best-case-scenario wishlist from the Rays perspective than anything realistic. It's a "we don't really want to trade him so here's what it will take for us to move him now" proposal.

My first instinct is to wonder why the Rays would have him on the block at all. If it's just a salary issue, they'd probably settle for way less than those proposals because the salary savings is the priority rather than the return. If it's not salary, then you have to wonder what they know about Snell that no one else does. 16 months ago he had elbow surgery and this past season the Rays treated him with kid gloves even with the championship on the line. Makes you wonder how fragile he might be.
 

BaseballJones

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They didn't treat him with kid gloves because they were worried about any sort of injury or physical issue. They treated him with kid gloves because they are absolutely, rigidly, attached to the philosophy of not letting their starters see the same hitters a third time in the game.
 

RedOctober3829

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That's about as dumb a trade idea as I've seen this offseason.

Verdugo, Casas and Houck are easily in the team's top ... what? ... 10 potential trade chips, and they'd put them in the same trade for a starter, even one as good as Snell?

I'd like to know where the "speculation that this sort of deal could happen" is coming from.
Has to be Tampa. I wouldn’t trade Verdugo straight up for Snell let alone the other two.
 

johnnywayback

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I read that article as saying "The Rays got this huge haul for Archer, what would it look like if they got a similar haul for Snell?" Which...yeah, that checks out with the Sox package. Eno Sarris is pretty sharp, so I doubt he thinks a deal like that would actually happen, but it seems like his valuation of Casas as a "fun prospect" is a bit discordant with the expectations from the Sox organization that he's on his way to being 80% of Freddie Freeman.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Has to be Tampa. I wouldn’t trade Verdugo straight up for Snell let alone the other two.
I’m not sure I’d go that far. I agree that Boston wouldn’t make the 3-for-1 proposed trade; that cost is way too much. But I think they’d trade 4 years of Verdugo for 3 years of Snell. I don’t think Tampa would. They trade their expensive stars to keep the farm stocked and/or to cost-effectively fill multiple roster needs. Given their window to contend is wide open, if they deal him, it will likely be for 2-3 cheap, MLB-ready players.

And this is a Dombrowski type deal. No way Bloom goes near this.
Agree. I think Bloom is far more likely to go looking for the next Max Scherzer than to trade for an established star.
 

sean1562

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The Rays are gonna be crunched for cash after next season. This year without Morton it is $58.3(with no FA signings yet) and expected arb figures push it to $85 in 2022. If even the big market teams are hurting after Covid, I can't imagine the Rays are looking at that expected payroll figure as one that they can maintain. Maybe they are done on Snell or maybe they think their young pitchers are ready to take over and cover his production?
 

chawson

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Kluber potentially signing here was not something I thought was possible, but makes a lot of sense. Intuitively, I think the pandemic offers more incentive than ever for FAs to sign deals near their families (for obvious reasons, and because there’s just no social life on the road anymore). The Sox may also have a similar inside edge on Springer, with Cora obviously helping there too.

Getting Kluber and Springer probably makes us a playoff team in the new format, so a trade for Snell could give Bloom three potential playoff aces. He could then sign one (two?) of Profar, Enrique Hernandez, and Villar to play 2B/LF/CF, rotating with Beni, Arroyo and Chavis (if he’s still around). That shouldn’t be too expensive, and maybe Munoz already works in this role.

Verdugo is a good fit but he was more lucky than great last year. Whether Springer’s worth the money and pick is debatable, but he'd be a monster here.

That rotation would be Snell, Kluber, Eovaldi, Rodriguez and Pivetta, with Sale returning midsummer. If everyone’s miraculously healthy and effective, bump Eovaldi to the bullpen.

Lineup:
Springer - RF
Devers - 3B
Bogaerts - SS
JDM - DH
Benintendi - LF
Dalbec - 1B
Profar - 2B/CF
Vazquez - C
Hernandez or Villar - 2B/CF
 

BaseballJones

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Verdugo is a good fit but he was more lucky than great last year.
I decided to look at Verdugo's numbers on b-ref. Even last year he was solid, so sure maybe he was somewhat lucky this past season, but he's got enough of a track record now to know that he's a good player.

Also...

I had NO idea he finished 12th (!!!) in the AL MVP voting this year. What in the world?
 

chawson

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I decided to look at Verdugo's numbers on b-ref. Even last year he was solid, so sure maybe he was somewhat lucky this past season, but he's got enough of a track record now to know that he's a good player.

Also...

I had NO idea he finished 12th (!!!) in the AL MVP voting this year. What in the world?
He's very good and I like him a lot. He also had a lower expected wOBA last year than Eddie Rosario, Josh Reddick and Hunter Renfroe, for whatever that's worth.
 

JBJ_HOF

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He's very good and I like him a lot. He also had a lower expected wOBA last year than Eddie Rosario, Josh Reddick and Hunter Renfroe, for whatever that's worth.
His bad start where literally everything was hit on the ground dragged down his statcast number a lot. He was fine once his timing returned. He hadn't seen real pitching in a year and jumped into MLB action.
 

chawson

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His bad start where literally everything was hit on the ground dragged down his statcast number a lot. He was fine once his timing returned. He hadn't seen real pitching in a year and jumped into MLB action.
We're talking about a really small sample, so I don't really disagree with your point. You're correct that his bad start worsened his overall numbers, but the good stretch was also fortunate:

Verdugo 2020:
7/25-8/12: .259/.322/.426 in 59 PA | 68.3 GB% | .325 wOBA, .267 xWOBA
8/13-9/26: .327/.383/.497 in 162 PA | 50.0 GB% | .375 wOBA, .300 xWOBA
 

DeadlySplitter

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they're not signing any QO player like Springer that would cost a draft pick. despite whatever they say they won't go all-out to contend in 2021, they're trying to set up the next run for probably the mid 2020s.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Rosario apparently cleared waivers. A guy who’s a pretty consistent, 2 WAR type of player, and no one wants to take a one-year arb flyer at a likely cost of about $10M? More evidence of a depressed/scared/slow market.
 

IpswichSox

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they're not signing any QO player like Springer that would cost a draft pick. despite whatever they say they won't go all-out to contend in 2021, they're trying to set up the next run for probably the mid 2020s.
I think this is exactly right re: qualifying offer. Signing a free agent that would cost a pick goes against everything Chaim has been telegraphing, doubly so for 2021 because of where Boston will be picking in the draft.
 

nvalvo

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I think this is exactly right re: qualifying offer. Signing a free agent that would cost a pick goes against everything Chaim has been telegraphing, doubly so for 2021 because of where Boston will be picking in the draft.
That second pick is what, 39th overall?
I think that's right: 30 teams – Houston's forfeited 1st rounder + 6 CB round A picks + 4 (our draft position).

We need to draft someone with that pick. Recent #39s include Padres prospect Luis Campusano, Lance Lynn and Joey Gallo. Barry Bonds was a #39 pick!

(He was easily the best #39 pick, only about 135 WAR ahead of Don Baylor.)
 
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chawson

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they're not signing any QO player like Springer that would cost a draft pick. despite whatever they say they won't go all-out to contend in 2021, they're trying to set up the next run for probably the mid 2020s.
That may be true about the QO FA, but I doubt they're not looking to contend in an expanded playoff format, when they've already invested in Sale and have E-Rod for one more year.

I think this is exactly right re: qualifying offer. Signing a free agent that would cost a pick goes against everything Chaim has been telegraphing, doubly so for 2021 because of where Boston will be picking in the draft.
Think of it this way: Signing Springer costs Bloom a 2nd (39th-ish overall) and 5th rounder. But he gains a valuable trade chip in Verdugo, an established very good and extraordinarily cheap outfielder, in a historic sellers' market for that kind of player. All he has to do is sign another cheap outfielder (Profar, Villar, Hernandez, Renfroe, Puig, Almora, Grossman, Pederson, Pillar...).

The way I see it, the pandemic has pushed more teams into austerity, so pre-arb Verdugo has an even greater trade market than he normally would. He'd still be a good long-term player for us (and I'm much more bullish on him than I was with Beni), but he's served one of his main purposes, which is to be an everyday right fielder making the league minimum in 2020 so we can get under the tax threshold.

Springer is also seeming a little underrated here. He strikes me as pretty similar value to Anthony Rendon when he signed for 7/$245M a year ago -- a similar hitter at roughly the same spot on the defensive spectrum (though one we particularly need). The pandemic has changed that market (and we should adjust for Springer's age relative to Rendon's). Pundits are predicting Springer's contract to land around 4/$110 to 5/$125. That's JDM money for maybe 95% of JDM's bat, plus a lot of defensive value.
 

DeadlySplitter

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I think Springer will be a good signing for whoever. The Red Sox just need the draft pick more in their current point of the contention cycle. They finished bottom 5 last year for the first time in like 50 years, they need to reap all the benefits of that.

also, I don't think we know the exact playoff format yet for 2021. maybe (likely) teams have internal info on that.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I think Springer will be a good signing for whoever. The Red Sox just need the draft pick more in their current point of the contention cycle. They finished bottom 5 last year for the first time in like 50 years, they need to reap all the benefits of that.

also, I don't think we know the exact playoff format yet for 2021. maybe (likely) teams have internal info on that.
We don't know the format. We know Manfred wants expanded playoffs like he had this year, but he may not have the same leverage to get the players association on board this time around.

Regardless of that, Bloom and the Red Sox should not be spending over the luxury tax threshold and/or sacrificing draft picks this winter unless they believe they can win the division (not snag the #7 or #8 seed in an expanded field) in 2021 without mortgaging 2023 and beyond. That's a fine needle to thread, and still would need all their current question marks (Sale, ERod, Eovaldi, JDM, Benintendi, etc) to come through big.
 

ehaz

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That second pick is what, 39th overall?
I think that's right: 30 teams – Houston's forfeited 1st rounder + 6 CB round A picks + 4 (our draft position).

We need to draft someone with that pick. Recent #39s include Padres prospect Luis Campusano, Lance Lynn and Joey Gallo. Barry Bonds was a #39 pick!

(He was easily the best #39 pick, only about 135 WAR ahead of Don Baylor.)
Yeah it could be Barry Bonds. It is also way way way more likely to be someone like Boston's 2010 #39 overall Anthony Ranaudo.

Come on. This is baseball, I don't get the circlejerk over a supplemental draft pick. If Chaim feels like he has a market advantage over other teams who are throwing in the towel in FA due to market conditions and can get Springer at like 60% of his value in a normal offseason, he's not going to hold back because he might lose a pick in a sport where even top 10 picks have like a ~60% bust rate.
 

johnnywayback

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Yeah it could be Barry Bonds. It is also way way way more likely to be someone like Boston's 2010 #39 overall Anthony Ranaudo.

Come on. This is baseball, I don't get the circlejerk over a supplemental draft pick. If Chaim feels like he has a market advantage over other teams who are throwing in the towel in FA due to market conditions and can get Springer at like 60% of his value in a normal offseason, he's not going to hold back because he might lose a pick in a sport where even top 10 picks have like a ~60% bust rate.
It's not just the pick. It's the money. Last year, the #39 slot was worth $1.9 million. That kind of money can be the difference between an okay draft and a great one.

Anyway, the Cubs are apparently non-tendering Albert Almora, who seems like a decent backup plan if JBJ is going elsewhere.
 

The Gray Eagle

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A lot of nontenders out there, some might be of interest to Boston.
Schwarber is a good hitter, but LH and not a good defender. He could cover LF in Fenway, maybe.
Almora is kind of the opposite, a good CF who can't hit much. He's not bad against lefties at least.
Danny Santana might be a good addition as a sort of switch-hitting Brock Holt type.

Pretty much any pitcher should be of interest to the Red Sox.

Hansel Robles was terrible last year but really good the year before, he might be worth a shot. Archie Bradley seems like a good bullpen arm.
Carlos Rodon isn't bad if he's healthy.
The Yankees non-tendered Holder, he's better than most of the dreck we ran out there last year.
I wonder if Jose Urena would be good as a reliever.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Carlos Rodon is, to me, precisely the kind of gamble the Sox should take. A slightly high year one tied to a moderate year two option is a nice way to get some upside without a huge commitment.

Schwarber to me is worth thinking about if the price is low---Fenway is better for him than most places defensively. But I wouldn't compete on contract with anyone for him, either.

I am also mostly a Gausman fan---I wouldn't break the bank but I think he's a guy likely worth more than the probable price.
 

nvalvo

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David Dahl was just non-tendered by Colorado.

He's a CF/RF who was fantastic (in Coors) in 2018 (.859 OPS, 110 wRC+) and 2019 (.877 OPS, 110 wRC+), but had a 2020 season kind of like Benintendi's: an injury-filled 99 PA of .183/.222/.247. So-so defender. He's supposed to be healthy.

He's only 26. We need an OF, probably. Seems interesting.

edited to add: he's Arb1, and was expected to earn less than $3m. .