Might as well start talking about 2021

Minneapolis Millers

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If this off-season were shaping up to be normal, the Sox keeping Perez for <$7m to provide some health and veteran “certainty” in the rotation would be a no brainer. But it looks like it’s going to be a disaster for FAs. Lots of marginal vets aren’t even going to get offers until plans for the 2021 MLB season are more clear. Since no team is going to be trying to build a rotation around Perez, it makes sense to let him go, see what’s out there, try to score a great deal on a better SP, and settle for a Perez type later if need be. I hope the Sox try to sign guys for 1 year plus a team option (or two years on very team friendly deals).
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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If this off-season were shaping up to be normal, the Sox keeping Perez for <$7m to provide some health and veteran “certainty” in the rotation would be a no brainer. But it looks like it’s going to be a disaster for FAs. Lots of marginal vets aren’t even going to get offers until plans for the 2021 MLB season are more clear. Since no team is going to be trying to build a rotation around Perez, it makes sense to let him go, see what’s out there, try to score a great deal on a better SP, and settle for a Perez type later if need be. I hope the Sox try to sign guys for 1 year plus a team option (or two years on very team friendly deals).
Might be too early for asking this (or starting a poll/different thread) but what do posters here think 2021 is going to look like? At this point, I seriously doubt it'll be "regular". I hope the MLB scheduling people are at least already trying to figure out how to minimize travel and outside contact. If I'm a team owner, I'm hesitant about offering any FA's anything other than one year deals at a small amount. Revenue absolutely had to have collapsed last season and there's no clear plan to stop this pandemic.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Might be too early for asking this (or starting a poll/different thread) but what do posters here think 2021 is going to look like? At this point, I seriously doubt it'll be "regular". I hope the MLB scheduling people are at least already trying to figure out how to minimize travel and outside contact. If I'm a team owner, I'm hesitant about offering any FA's anything other than one year deals at a small amount. Revenue absolutely had to have collapsed last season and there's no clear plan to stop this pandemic.
Scheduling is probably a topic for a whole new thread. I think regardless of what the schedule might look like, a good number of teams will still be playing in empty stadiums next year. And even those that do allow some limited number of fans aren't going to be generating a whole lot of net income from that once you factor in staffing the park (concessions, ushers, security, etc) to service those fans. Teams are going to be tightening the purse strings where they can, even though most of their TV deals should allow them to maintain typical payroll levels (along the lines of the past 10 years).

Frankly, I'm not anticipating a full 162 game season. Just like this past season, I think the owners and the players are going to hem and haw over how finances will work in a COVID-altered season and they won't have any semblance of a plan by the time pitchers and catchers should be reporting, if not Opening Day.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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I think/hope we’ll know a lot more about vaccines in January. Maybe one comes out, MLB delays the season for a month, starts with capacity limits (25%? Follow college football’s lead), and then those limits lift as vaccinations increase and infections drop. Maybe people are allowed into stadiums only upon proof of vaccinations (now THERE’S an incentive!).

But the main point here is that for lower tier FAs, teams can afford to wait...
 

scottyno

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I think you're confusing the below replacement level dreck that the Sox threw out there on the mound with a replacement level player like Perez.

To me, wasting $6 million on substandard players like Perez is as big a roster offense as overspending on a big name free agent. At least the big name free agent might actually help you win ball games.
96 career era+ isn't replacement level, I mean WAR literally means wins above replacement level, and by either metric of WAR he's at worst a "bad" starter on an mlb roster and at best a mediocre one. With 2019 economics picking up Perez's option for what you'd expect him to give you would be a no brainer.
 

section15

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I think/hope we’ll know a lot more about vaccines in January. Maybe one comes out, MLB delays the season for a month, starts with capacity limits (25%? Follow college football’s lead), and then those limits lift as vaccinations increase and infections drop. Maybe people are allowed into stadiums only upon proof of vaccinations (now THERE’S an incentive!).

But the main point here is that for lower tier FAs, teams can afford to wait...
Projections are for rollout starting in January, pending the successful clinical trials, which, we haven't heard anything truly bad about.

My guess is spring training will be behind closed doors, the regular season begins with restricted attendance. If the vaccines work, life should be (pretty much) back to normal by May-June. But that's optimism.

If Perez' replacement isn't Perez, it could be someone better... !
 

jon abbey

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My guess is spring training will be behind closed doors, the regular season begins with restricted attendance. If the vaccines work, life should be (pretty much) back to normal by May-June. But that's optimism.
The rumor/plan going around last week was that spring training will be only for guys with legit major league hope this year, then maybe once the regular season starts, there will be a minor league spring training. The 2021 minor league season is even more up in the air than the major league one, this whole thing has been a disaster for prospect development (obviously it has been a worldwide disaster in a much more serious way, just talking baseball).
 

sean1562

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I would rather they go out and try someone like Robbie Ray than Perez. How much could Ray be looking at this season? Probably looking for a one year deal and if he bounces back a much better trade candidate than someone like Perez. What does everyone think of Taijuan Walker?
 

shaggydog2000

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I would rather they go out and try someone like Robbie Ray than Perez. How much could Ray be looking at this season? Probably looking for a one year deal and if he bounces back a much better trade candidate than someone like Perez. What does everyone think of Taijuan Walker?
I think there are going to be a ton of turned down options, and a lot of one year deals. Teams aren't going to want to be tied up long term on anyone but the very best players when they don't know what the economic future looks like. And few players are going to want to sign multi year deals for the salaries teams would be offering. So there are likely going to be a lot of names available for the Sox to look at if they are willing to spend (moderately).
 

bosockboy

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Projections are for rollout starting in January, pending the successful clinical trials, which, we haven't heard anything truly bad about.

My guess is spring training will be behind closed doors, the regular season begins with restricted attendance. If the vaccines work, life should be (pretty much) back to normal by May-June. But that's optimism.

If Perez' replacement isn't Perez, it could be someone better... !
Not to be Debbie Downer but even if the vaccine is good, I think we are Labor Day until a semblance of normalcy.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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I would rather they go out and try someone like Robbie Ray than Perez. How much could Ray be looking at this season? Probably looking for a one year deal and if he bounces back a much better trade candidate than someone like Perez. What does everyone think of Taijuan Walker?
FWIW, MLB Trade Rumors predicted the Sox would sign Jose Quintana, Anthony DeSclafani and Kolten Wong.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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FWIW, MLB Trade Rumors predicted the Sox would sign Jose Quintana, Anthony DeSclafani and Kolten Wong.
I thought those (and many others on their list) were lousy guesses. They have Morton signing for 1/$8... with the Mets. We’re going to give more in years and $ to Quintana? And we’re not going to sign a top BP arm, even though they’re going for 2/$14? Ok...
 

chrisfont9

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I would rather they go out and try someone like Robbie Ray than Perez. How much could Ray be looking at this season? Probably looking for a one year deal and if he bounces back a much better trade candidate than someone like Perez. What does everyone think of Taijuan Walker?
re. Walker, he is pretty much back to where he was before TJ surgery, so I'd say he's an interesting guy if his medicals are good. I wonder what the market for him would be? MLBTraderumors has him sandwiched between James Paxton and Garrett Richards on their list, 23rd best available free agent, and predicts he'll get 2/$16 from the Nats. He was pretty immature in his first Mariners stint, lots of criticism from the organization about how he went about his business. Is that bad news or do we wonder if he's grown up? The arm talent is there.
 

effectivelywild

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BaseballJones

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It doesn't say that the owner is strapped for money. It says that Cleveland (meaning the Cleveland Indians) is strapped for money. Not the same thing.
 

RedOctober3829

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There are two outright lies in that tweet.
First of all, the owner of the Indians, Paul Dolan, is worth an estimated 4.6 billion. While I realize that "net worth" doesn't mean liquid assets, I think it's ridiculous for him to say he is strapped for cash.
Second: Lindor, as a result of prorated salaries, only made 6.48 million last year.
Why do you think they have they traded multiple stars before they got expensive and will add another one with Lindor?
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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Would love for the Sox to trade for him, but I doubt they have the prospects/pieces Indians would want
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Would love for the Sox to trade for him, but I doubt they have the prospects/pieces Indians would want
Not to go all Lou Gorman, but where does Lindor fit with the existing roster? Restart the "move Devers to 1B and Bogaerts to 3B" discussion, I guess.

Even if they had the prospects to make the deal, I'm not sure Lindor for one year is the investment the team should be making right now.
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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Not to go all Lou Gorman, but where does Lindor fit with the existing roster? Restart the "move Devers to 1B and Bogaerts to 3B" discussion, I guess.

Even if they had the prospects to make the deal, I'm not sure Lindor for one year is the investment the team should be making right now.
For one year, no. And while I agree, he has no spot here, I think you make room for him in the lineup. Put him at SS, move X back to 3B as you suggested perhaps. Or rotate X/Devers/Lindor at DH/IF, etc. There is always a way to get an excellent bat in to the lineup. Of course, zero chance they will get him, but having his bat in the lineup and his personality on the Sox, would be great.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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What are you doing with JD if one of those guys is at DH everyday? Lindor has no spot here and RHF is correct, it's not a move they should spend assets on. Wait a year and sign him if you want him that bad.
 

shaggydog2000

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For one year, no. And while I agree, he has no spot here, I think you make room for him in the lineup. Put him at SS, move X back to 3B as you suggested perhaps. Or rotate X/Devers/Lindor at DH/IF, etc. There is always a way to get an excellent bat in to the lineup. Of course, zero chance they will get him, but having his bat in the lineup and his personality on the Sox, would be great.
If they were just giving him away, sure I'd take him for a D list prospect. But I think some team with a more dire need for a SS is going to offer more than the Sox.
 

allmanbro

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Shoemaker has the ability to look really great for a stretch before he (inevitably) gets hurt. Just over 160 IP total over the last four years, but he might make sense if the Sox want to try and catch lightning in a bottle and either make a run or flip him at the deadline. Can't count on him for innings though, and they need to cover a lot of innings . . .
 

InsideTheParker

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I think Pedey would be great as the next Remy,if Remy doesn't want to retireany time soon Pedey could be the bench coach if Corais going to come back as manager
The idea of Pedroia as Cora's bench coach is exciting to me, if it there's no chance of it happening. We have lots of testimonies from his teammates of his coaching brilliance.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Shoemaker has the ability to look really great for a stretch before he (inevitably) gets hurt. Just over 160 IP total over the last four years, but he might make sense if the Sox want to try and catch lightning in a bottle and either make a run or flip him at the deadline. Can't count on him for innings though, and they need to cover a lot of innings . . .
Unless he comes dirt cheap, he would seem to be a pretty risky use of a roster spot. Since his career high 160 innings in 2016, he’s only managed another 166 over the ensuing 3.5 seasons. Not exactly durable.
 

nvalvo

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Unless he comes dirt cheap, he would seem to be a pretty risky use of a roster spot. Since his career high 160 innings in 2016, he’s only managed another 166 over the ensuing 3.5 seasons. Not exactly durable.
This is right. It seems to me we already have Eovaldi in the good-but-fragile starter roster spot.
 

chawson

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The Sox could feasibly get 500 combined innings from Sale, ERod and Eovaldi next year. They could also get 50. I like Shoemaker on a incentive-laden deal for that reason. Between the hitters’ park, AL East and terrible 2020 season, Sox are hardly a prize destination for pitchers looking for a bounceback year. A guy with a chance at upside that only costs money means fewer innings we’ll have to fill by trade.

When he’s healthy, Shoemaker’s splitter is an extremely good pitch that almost no other starter throws. Bloom’s sales pitch should be that Boston keeps him healthy and he’ll have a season like Kevin Gausman just did.
 

allmanbro

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I haven't seen much talk connecting the Sox and LeMahieu - that seems like an obvious fit to me.
The Sox are in a weird spot with 2B, already having Chavis and Peraza, with Dalbec/Chavis spliting duties at first, and Downs in the wings. A Chavis/Peraza/Dalbec cluster is "fine", and each of them has some upside, but are not guys you want to rely on for a playoff team right now.

I think 2b is a good bellwether for figuring out how much they are trying to compete now, vs rebuild. If they are rebuilding, no reason to do anything there now. But if they want to compete this year, Wong or maybe LaMahieu make sense on a short deal. Either way, I doubt they sign anyone longer than two years.

Most likely, this offseason is all about pitching.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I haven't seen much talk connecting the Sox and LeMahieu - that seems like an obvious fit to me.
Are 32 year old second baseman where they should be investing significant money? They've got some young talent in the pipeline there (Downs, Chatham), and reasonable enough options in-house for the short term (Arroyo, Arauz) that they don't need to spend top dollar. Add in that it's doubtful the Yankees will let him walk to their rival without a fight, and it seems like a prime scenario for an overpayment. Even if MLB.com is saying he's the "safest" free agent bet on the current market.
 
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Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I haven't seen much talk connecting the Sox and LeMahieu - that seems like an obvious fit to me.
I'm skeptical of LaMahieu as anything more than a potential flop. He's had one very good and one great year with the MFY's but prior was pretty average. He looks like someone that just snorted a few lines of that magic Yankee pixie dust that Aaron Smalls amongst others scored. Despite the pandemic, I see him getting a 5 year deal at $20M per and he's just not worth that much. He's got "bust" potential all over him. He's not signing a one or two year deal which is the only thing any team should offer him
 

Cesar Crespo

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The Sox are in a weird spot with 2B, already having Chavis and Peraza, with Dalbec/Chavis spliting duties at first, and Downs in the wings. A Chavis/Peraza/Dalbec cluster is "fine", and each of them has some upside, but are not guys you want to rely on for a playoff team right now.

I think 2b is a good bellwether for figuring out how much they are trying to compete now, vs rebuild. If they are rebuilding, no reason to do anything there now. But if they want to compete this year, Wong or maybe LaMahieu make sense on a short deal. Either way, I doubt they sign anyone longer than two years.

Most likely, this offseason is all about pitching.
Had 2020 been a normal year, Jeter would have probably spend half the year in AA and half in AAA and would have had an outside chance of the 2b job in 2021. Hard to really know where any of the minor league guys are right now though. Maybe that's still the case.

Kinda like Tanner Houck. I saw him a few times prior to this year as a starter and wasn't all that impressed. He couldn't really strike guys out. I also saw him in the bullpen in Pawtucket where he looked really great from August on and was striking out batters. I thought he would stay there but the Sox used him as a starter in the AFL and he was striking out even more batters. He carried that over this year in his limited time and his K% jumped yet again. The problem is the sample sizes are so small.

Since August 3rd, 2019: (Paw, AFL, Bos)

58.1 ip, 2.01 era, 71k/28bb, 6 HR, 241 BF, 29.5% K rate, 11.6% BB rate 2.1% HR rate

Prior:
231.0 ip, 4.28era 198k/107bb, 15 HR. 1013 BF, 19.5% K rate, 10.6% BB rate, 1.5% HR rate


Those are 2 completely different pitchers and a 1st round pick figuring something out at age 23 after moving to the pen isn't that uncommon. He could also revert back to the guy who doesn't really strike guys out. His swinging strike% in the MLB isn't much higher than the MLB average (20.5% to 19.6%) but his K rate was 33.3%, the MLB average is 23.4%. There's also a lot of wiggle room between 19.5% and 29.%. In a world of incomplete information, the information is even more incomplete.
 

nvalvo

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Are 32 year old second baseman where they should be investing significant money? They've got some young talent in the pipeline there (Downs, Chatham), and reasonable enough options in-house for the short term (Arroyo, Arauz) that they don't need to spend top dollar. Add in that it's doubtful the Yankees will let him walk to their rival without a fight, and it seems like a prime scenario for an overpayment. Even if MLB.com is saying he's the "safest" free agent bet on the current market.
Chatham isn't really a prospect anymore, I'd have to say. His optionable/pre-arb years will have some value as middle infield depth, but he'll be 26 this offseason and never really showed enough with the bat to think of as more than an emergency call up if too many of our middle infielders have oblique tweaks at the same time. I'd have to say Jeter Downs has lapped him on the depth chart, and even Tzu-Wei Lin likely remains ahead of him.

Those are 2 completely different pitchers and a 1st round pick figuring something out at age 23 after moving to the pen isn't that uncommon. He could also revert back to the guy who doesn't really strike guys out. His swinging strike% in the MLB isn't much higher than the MLB average (20.5% to 19.6%) but his K rate was 33.3%, the MLB average is 23.4%. There's also a lot of wiggle room between 19.5% and 29.%. In a world of incomplete information, the information is even more incomplete.
The thing about Houck's stats is that they need to be interpreted in light of the reporting about how the organization asked him to shelve his two-seamer (with which he had been dominant as a late-inning reliever in the NCAA) in games to focus on commanding his four-seamer to both sides of the plate, which I think they thought of as important to his performance against lefties.

When he added it back in — two thirds of the way through his 2018 season in high A — his performance improved sharply. His first 15 starts he had a 5.32 ERA and an .811 OPS against. His last eight starts, he had 2.63 ERA and a .573 OPS against. His K/BB numbers improved wildly, too: from 61K/50BB in the first 15 to 50K/10BB and the last eight. Likewise, the 2019 numbers you listed are complicated by a move to the bullpen, but also by his commitment to in-game experimentation with a changeup he was commanding poorly.
 

The Gray Eagle

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LeMahieu got a qualifying offer, so he would cost us the 4th pick in the second round, on top of a big money contract. Highly unlikely we would be interested.