Here's a more nuanced piece from Mariners fan Dave Cameron along similar lines:
http://www.fangraphs...duced-velocity/
Verlander does a similar thing, I believe, his FB tends to pick up a few MPH in the middle to late innings when he feels he really needs it. I just hope this media silliness doesn't make Pineda change his plans in his next start.
The column seems one of the more thought-through rebuttals to the uproar over Pineda's velocity. And, as others have pointed out, Beckett was sitting in the high-80s and topping out at 91 (as far as I saw) on Sunday.
Rather than just rely on the first 10 pitches of his 8-21 start as is done in the article, I pulled the data on Pineda's starts from the Brooks website. Unscientifically selecting his 13th start as the one in which he began to consistently reduce his initial velocity, you get the following comparisons. I did exclude Pineda's last start of the season where his velocity throughout the game was clearly off.
Starts 1 - 12 | Pitch | # Thrown | # FA | % FB | Avg FA |
| 1-10 | 120 | 93 | 77.5% | 94.6 |
| 11-20 | 120 | 87 | 72.5% | 95.0 |
| 21-30 | 120 | 79 | 65.8% | 94.7 |
| 31-40 | 120 | 82 | 68.3% | 95.1 |
| 41-50 | 120 | 78 | 65.0% | 95.1 |
| 51-60 | 120 | 81 | 67.5% | 95.4 |
| 61-70 | 120 | 71 | 59.2% | 95.2 |
| 71-80 | 116 | 74 | 63.8% | 95.2 |
| 81-90 | 110 | 73 | 66.4% | 94.9 |
| 91-100 | 83 | 63 | 75.9% | 94.8 |
| 100+ | 9 | 7 | 77.8% | 94.5 |
Starts 13 - 27 | Pitch | # Thrown | # FA | % FB | Avg FA |
| 1-10 | 150 | 107 | 71.3% | 92.4 |
| 11-20 | 150 | 102 | 68.0% | 93.8 |
| 21-30 | 150 | 101 | 67.3% | 94.0 |
| 31-40 | 150 | 95 | 63.3% | 94.3 |
| 41-50 | 150 | 91 | 60.7% | 94.3 |
| 51-60 | 150 | 85 | 56.7% | 94.6 |
| 61-70 | 150 | 93 | 62.0% | 94.6 |
| 71-80 | 150 | 82 | 54.7% | 94.0 |
| 81-90 | 140 | 87 | 62.1% | 94.0 |
| 91-100 | 76 | 53 | 69.7% | 93.8 |
| 100+ | 16 | 10 | 62.5% | 94.5 |
Difference | Pitch | % FB | Avg FA |
| 1-10 | (6.2%) | (2.2) |
| 11-20 | (4.5%) | (1.2) |
| 21-30 | 1.5% | (0.8) |
| 31-40 | (5.0%) | (0.8) |
| 41-50 | (4.3%) | (0.8) |
| 51-60 | (10.8%) | (0.8) |
| 61-70 | 2.8% | (0.6) |
| 71-80 | (9.1%) | (1.2) |
| 81-90 | (4.2%) | (0.9) |
| 91-100 | (6.2%) | (1.0) |
| 100+ | (15.3%) | (0.0) |
So while his initial velocities weren't as consistently low as they were in the 8/21 start, he did tend to start off games with less velocity on his fastballs. And while he did dial it up as his pitch count progressed, his velocity in his last 15 starts continued to lag the velocity in his first 12, although this difference falls in the middle innings before expanding again in the later innings.
As far as pitch choice, while he generally threw fewer fastballs in the last 15 starts, I'm not sure the difference is meaningful. A 10% difference would imply one fewer fastball out of the 10 pitch sequence, and that number was only equalled or approached twice (excluding the SSS 100+ pitch range). Seeing as that could have as much to do with the particular game situation, differences of this magnitude may not be at all relevant. Perhaps someone with more knowledge about pitching could provide more insight.
So while this is somewhat of an unscientific analysis, it does generally support the commentary in the Fangraphs column. Despite any analysis, as everyone has already pointed out, if Pineda is still generally in the high-80's three weeks from now, it's a concern. If he's consistently in the mid-90's, then concerns over this spring training debut will be forgotten.
EDIT: I pulled the data into Excel and then ran the various calculations. I've spot checked it and don't believe there are any busts, but I should add the caveat that I haven't thoroughly reviewed all the calculations. There was also probably an easier way to do this, but I'm not familiar with any sites that break it out like this.
