Let's Talk About Bello
- Thread starter BaseballJones
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We are definitely seeing a 27-year old leap from Verdugo. He's already at 2.9 bWAR in just 79 games played. He's on pace for about 5.5 bWAR, which would be by far his most ever.
A great deal of that is from his defense, which was a -1.2 WAR last year but is 0.9 WAR so far this year. That's a remarkable defensive turnaround.
Yeah I don't know what clicked with him (effort?) but he's a completely different defensive player. On that note, so is Duran. He's much improved defensively too.
Some players take a little longer to hit their peak?
Isn’t 27-31 considered peak years (depending on how long they’ve been in ML too)?
It used to be yes. I think it's trended a little earlier recently though, like 25-30, something like that. But Verdugo is just hitting his peak, obviously. I still think Duran has more improvement in him.
Two things. He's healthy and in better shape this year, so he's moving a lot better. And WAR overrates Fenway right fielders and underrates left fielders. I don't think the metric properly accounts for the geometry of the park and the set of catchable balls in each location. So there's real improvement and his move from LF to RF.
Verdugo was a great defensive outfielder before the trade, and at worst a great defensive LF for the Sox in 20 and 21. Last year he was pretty bad no matter where they played him, which makes sense since we later learned he was playing with a broken toe for much of the season.
How has Bloom not approached Bello's representatives about an extension yet?
https://www.audacy.com/weei/sports/red-sox/bello-hasnt-talked-contract-extension-but-would-like-to?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
That could be true, but it's not really how I read that quote, either. That reads to me more like Bello is focused on his pitching, and letting his team handle everything else.
I read it as I'm letting my reps handle it, but haven't been approached yet about it. Means to me there hasn't been discussion of it or at least serious discussion of it.
I’m sure the Red Sox FO is already thinking about possible extension/pre-Arb buyout scenarios with Bello. It would be utter malpractice on their part not to. That said, it would be surprising if they started that conversation with Bello’s agent before the offseason.
You want to see some durability before committing. Finishing the season healthy would go a long way toward that variable. We already know he has the stuff and the mental poise for consistent success. It’s just a matter of staying healthy, as is often the case with pitchers.
You want to see some durability before committing. Finishing the season healthy would go a long way toward that variable. We already know he has the stuff and the mental poise for consistent success. It’s just a matter of staying healthy, as is often the case with pitchers.
I think they have likely had at least preliminary discussions with Bello's team but Bello's team maybe won't let him know about it until it is at least near what they think he should accept.
Fangraphs with a glowing feature on Bello today.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/brayan-bello-has-arrived-and-not-a-moment-too-soon/
A lot of interesting stuff in there, but one that stands out is that the only starting pitcher in 2022-23 with a opponent slugging mark vs. changeups lower than Brayan Bello is Shane McClanahan.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/brayan-bello-has-arrived-and-not-a-moment-too-soon/
A lot of interesting stuff in there, but one that stands out is that the only starting pitcher in 2022-23 with a opponent slugging mark vs. changeups lower than Brayan Bello is Shane McClanahan.
I could see a 6 or 7 year deal with 1-2 club options on the end of it. That would take him into his early 30’s and would give the club the chance to see where he is entering his age 32 season when the club options would start (assuming a 7 year).
Spencer Strider was a year younger with better numbers in his one season than Bello has this year, and he signed for 6/$75 with a club option for year 7. Is there any reason to think Bello would cost more? Because if not, sign him to a contract like that immediately please
From the article, it seems like nothing will be signed during the season, maybe afterwards:
"Why won't that moron Bloom sign him to an extension RIGHT NOW? Total failure by Bloom. No wonder Bello can't wait to get out of here."
Things look promising for a deal after the season.
I'm sure that quote coming directly from him will encourage fans to not demand that he be signed to an extension immediately. LOL.
"Why won't that moron Bloom sign him to an extension RIGHT NOW? Total failure by Bloom. No wonder Bello can't wait to get out of here."
Things look promising for a deal after the season.
It would be great if they could lock him up (including team options) through age 33 or 34. I imagine that will be the sticking point because if Bello has a competent agent, he'll be advising him to hit the market by age 30-31. He's a free agent entering his age 30 season so I could see a deal like Whitlock's in length (5 years + a couple club options) being the sweet spot.
What is Bello looking at until he becomes a free agent if his contract simply ran its course?
2023 - 730k
2024 - 750k (I figure some inflation on the MLB minimums)
2025 - 770k
2026 - arbitration, so... 8m?
2027 - arbitration, so... 12m?
2028 - arbitration, so... 20m?
2029 - FA
I have no idea what he'd get in 2026, 2027, 2028. Dylan Cease, at age 26, signed for $5.7m in his first year of arbitration. Zac Gallen signed for $5.6m in his first year of arbitration. Given that Bello is still a few years away, adjusting for inflation, maybe he signs for $8m in his first year of arbitration? Then it goes up from there in 2027 and 2028?
If so, letting the contract run out essentially means that from 2024-2028 (5 years), he will have earned ABOUT (pretty much a total guess here) $40 million, give or take. So signing him right now to a 6 year extension worth $75 million means you're essentially getting one more year out of him at age 30 (smack dab in his prime) for about $35 million for that one season.
2023 - 730k
2024 - 750k (I figure some inflation on the MLB minimums)
2025 - 770k
2026 - arbitration, so... 8m?
2027 - arbitration, so... 12m?
2028 - arbitration, so... 20m?
2029 - FA
I have no idea what he'd get in 2026, 2027, 2028. Dylan Cease, at age 26, signed for $5.7m in his first year of arbitration. Zac Gallen signed for $5.6m in his first year of arbitration. Given that Bello is still a few years away, adjusting for inflation, maybe he signs for $8m in his first year of arbitration? Then it goes up from there in 2027 and 2028?
If so, letting the contract run out essentially means that from 2024-2028 (5 years), he will have earned ABOUT (pretty much a total guess here) $40 million, give or take. So signing him right now to a 6 year extension worth $75 million means you're essentially getting one more year out of him at age 30 (smack dab in his prime) for about $35 million for that one season.
I think those are fair estimates for his pre-free agency years. I think the final year of $34-35M might be an over-payment, at least for an extension like this. $35M might be what he'd be on track to make in free agency if he's as good as we all hope. Usually an extension will give a bit of a discount to the team in exchange for a couple extra years of security/guaranteed money, especially considering the $8-12-20M progression in arbitration might be a touch on the high side.
I'm thinking something along the lines of 6/$65M with at least one club option for $28-30M tacked on would be a reasonable middle ground. The big jump in AAV might hurt initially ($700K to $10M), though the hope is that it's still a hell of a bargain for what Bello brings.
Luis Severino signed a four-year, $40 million extension in February 2019 at age 25 that bought out all his arbitration years and one year of free agency via a $15 million club option that was picked up ahead of this season, so call it five years and $55 million or so. That was on the heels of back-to-back ~200-inning seasons with a combined 3.18 ERA, a 3.01 FIP, 10.5 K/9, and 11 fWAR. Obviously Bello isn't at that level yet and still has a long way to go until arbitration eligibility and free agency but is on the verge of turning 25, which makes me think that five years at $25–$35 million probably gets it done. Assuming it gets done this winter, that would buy out two years of pre-arb control and all three years of arbitration; tack on a team option or two at $10 million a piece, and that feels like a fair price for both sides.
Arbitration will depend on how quickly Bello develops too. If he's basically turning into Framber Valdez by next year or 2025, then he's going to cost a lot more than 8 million in arb. Dallas Keuchal got 7.25 mil in his first year of arb in 2015 after he won the Cy Young the year before....accounting for MLB salary inflation, that's prob more like 13-14 mil in 2026.
Extensions for pitchers are a risky proposition. It's tempting to lock in Bello through age 30 or 31, but the reality is that it's the Red Sox who carry most of the risk on that. You might be getting a great deal in 2027-28-29-30 but there's also a very real chance you are paying an injured player or a player who is reduced because of a past injury by that point. You just don't know. While it may cost more, it is probably "safer" to wait until after 2024 or 2025 to try the extension where they buy out some arb years plus a couple FA years.
My first guesstimate was 7/70 with 1-2 club options at a much higher AAV. If two years, then maybe $25m for the first and $30m for the second, so a total possible outlay of 9/125.
I agree that his agent would probably want to cap any extension at 6 years for a possible bank breaking FA heading into his age 31 season. I think that could be overcome with a little more $ and those high club options.
I just can’t wait to see BOS start developing the ATL model if team building with a dash of the TB, sell high model, and a usual BOS budget. If Henry et al. can be patient with Bloom, That could be significantly closer to reality in the next few years.
I agree that his agent would probably want to cap any extension at 6 years for a possible bank breaking FA heading into his age 31 season. I think that could be overcome with a little more $ and those high club options.
I just can’t wait to see BOS start developing the ATL model if team building with a dash of the TB, sell high model, and a usual BOS budget. If Henry et al. can be patient with Bloom, That could be significantly closer to reality in the next few years.
Bello working on another pitch apparently
View: https://twitter.com/gfstarr1/status/1681804274966175748?s=20
Brayan Bello said he's developing a new pitch to help him fare better against lefties.
View: https://twitter.com/gfstarr1/status/1681804274966175748?s=20
Brayan Bello said he's developing a new pitch to help him fare better against lefties.
MLB SP bWAR leaders
1. Cole, NYY 4.9 (150.1 IP)
2. Eovaldi, TEX 3.6 (123.2)
3. Snell, SD 3.5 (124)
4. Gray, MIN 3.3 (124)
5. Webb, SFG 3.3 (154.1)
6. Valdez, HOU 3.2 (135)
7. Ohtani, LAA 3.1 (124.1)
8. Bello, BOS 3.1 (108.2)
9. Kershaw, LAD 3.1 (95.1)
10. Gallen, ARI 3.1 (149.2)
1. Cole, NYY 4.9 (150.1 IP)
2. Eovaldi, TEX 3.6 (123.2)
3. Snell, SD 3.5 (124)
4. Gray, MIN 3.3 (124)
5. Webb, SFG 3.3 (154.1)
6. Valdez, HOU 3.2 (135)
7. Ohtani, LAA 3.1 (124.1)
8. Bello, BOS 3.1 (108.2)
9. Kershaw, LAD 3.1 (95.1)
10. Gallen, ARI 3.1 (149.2)
It’s tough to stay focused as a pitcher when you’re up big, and there’s a bunch of really long half innings. Him being able to escape jams and get the bullpen rest was good stuff.
Fair and exciting to say. Now, I'm curious about who the next success will be. Guys like Drohan and Walter are close but aren't exactly lighting it up. Perales and Gonzalez are still a couple years away at least. Mata's star has dimmed. Pretty ridiculous that there are only 4 pitchers on SoxProspect's Top 20 list. Clear that Chaim still has a lot of work to do in that regard.
It was 15 years between the last two. Seems a bit unfair to expect one every year.
There are several guys who could easily take a jump & be ready by late '24, beginning of '25 including Wikelman, Drohan & Hunter Dobbins. They could be successes in like the Kutter Crawford/Tanner Houck category.
My best guess for your actual question of Bello-type success stories, though, are Luis Perales by late '25, beginning of '26 & Yordanny Monegro by late '26 beginning of '27.
I also think rumors of Bryan Mata's demise may be overstated & injury related, & he could be part of the pitching staff as early as next season (although I don't really think he will ever be an answer to the initial question).
I hope they trade Brandon Walter this off season & don't really have much use for him.
I've been following the pitching prospects slightly closer this year than I normally do (which isn't much)....the one that stood out to me was Monegro. Curious as to what you think of his prospects as he seemed to be to have some of the more electric stuff and you follow this stuff more closely than most.
I say this while realizing it's easy to get overhyped by prospects in the lower minors.
YORDANNY is really hard for me not to get excited about because he throws 97 with carry on his fastball & has a super sharp curveball that he can either drop into the zone or get hitters to chase, plus a high 80s slider. His changeup isn't great, but if he can develop more of a differential between it & his fastball, & maybe a cutter, he will be even more dangerous.
My favorite thing about him is that he just seems to love to pitch & compete & he brings a joy to the mound which is really infectious. There are definitely some mechanical things he can clean up which will help him get more consistent with the location of his pitches, but I'm really optimistic he gets there. I have him as their #10 prospect, but might bump him back up a bit higher in the next round of rankings.
Probably 35% of yesterday's MiLB thread is YORDANNY-stanning.
https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/8-24-2023-woosox-during-the-day-yordanny-at-night.40293/
Yup, I know it's harder to develop top SP pitching prospects and the 15 year gap was ridiculous but I've also seen Cleveland unveil Gavin Williams, Logan Allen, and Tanner Bibee all in one year. I know they seem like more of an outlier but my hope is that the frequency of Bello's increases under Chaim's watch. But, as long as we're mixing in some Houck's and Crawford's along the way, and supplementing with a Yamamoto in FA (please...), I think we'll generally be ok, especially if Bello continues his upward trajectory. It would be nice to have a multi-year rotation foundation, something we haven't really had in a while. And it's looking like Whitlock may be better off in the pen, which is fine.
On the one hand, yes, this is all true. On the other hand, this is partly a measure of having nine position players (Mayer, Bleis, Rafaela, Yorke, Anthony, Teel, Alcantara, Romero, Zanatello) that Fangraphs puts at least a "45" FV on. That's really only matched by Baltimore, but their remaining group (obviously they've promoted some pretty good position player prospects recently — but so have we!) are bottom-heavy within that range (i.e., they have 10, but 6 are 45s; we have 9, but only 3 are 45s and the remaining six are ranked better). If we had fewer such players, I imagine there'd be more pitchers in our system top-20, but no one would call that an improvement.
We've spent our draft capital and big international bonus budget on position players, so that's a big part of why those guys are a big part of the talent in the system and, because the finances influence the rankings, an even bigger part of the top ranked guys. It seems like the goal now is to take a bunch of guys like Bello (28k signing bonus) and Crawford (16th round pick) and really develop them into pitchers. That strategy, even if it works well, will mean that these guys won't spend much time if any high in the rankings. The lack of pedigree will mean that they will need to build a long track record in the minors before the public-facing evaluators will really take them seriously, and by the time they do that, they will have lost their prospect eligibility.
Neither Brayan Bello nor Kutter Crawford was a top-100 prospect at any point, and they both are probable rotation members for the 2024 Sox.
It's interesting looking at Bello's Minor League stats. Just superficially, it looks like he probably didn't get more love because of bad MiLB fielding, which is going to be killer for a ground ball pitcher.
In 2018, he was great in the DSL (64.1 IP, 1.68 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 2.33 xFIP, 68 k/10 bb).
In 2019, he struggled in A-Ball posting a 5.43 ERA in 117.2 innings as a 20 y/o. But if you look a bit more carefully, his opponents had a .359 BABIP & his xFIP was a more manageable 3.52. (119 strikeouts, 38 walks)
2020 was the pandemic year, & he started '21 in high-A Greenville. He dominated for 6 starts (31.2 IP, 2.27 ERA, 2.81 xFIP, 45k, 7 bb), & was promoted to AA Portland...where again he seemed to struggle, posting a 4.66 ERA in 63.2 innings. This was inflated by an even higher BABIP, .381, meaning his xFIP was a much more manageable 3.33. Also, like the last time his BABIP spiked, it led to him throwing more walks than usual (87k/24 bb).
Bello started '22 in Portland & got a quick promotion after 7 starts, probably in part due to an unsustainably low BABIP, .190. He had a 1.69 ERA & 2.43 xFIP in 37.1 IP. Part of it, though, is he heavily increased his groundball % year over year from '21, going from around 50% to around 60% at all levels. At Worcester, he pitched 58.2 solid innings. His ERA & xFIP were basically in line at 2.76/2.65, & he was called up to the Red Sox & the rest is history.
Not really sure what my point is, other than it may be useful to look for pitchers with similar profiles in the system to see if there's more there there than one might think by looking at the ERA. Might be a Minor League Forum project for me at some point.
Pretty sure Crawford's best role is still multi-inning reliever.
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1695235061053018297
Jesus. Some of those 94-96 have Derek Lowe to Terrance Long energy. My goodness. Those are Pedro pitches.
As pointed out by Stats earlier today, the 4-seamer command is probably a big one in terms of getting to the next level:
I believe the Vladdy HR came on one of those 4-seamers lower in the zone. I do recall that when Bello was in the upper minors last year, he was labeled as a "bad fastball" guy in some prospect circles, and favoring the sinker helped him. But it's encouraging to know his 4-seamer can still play in the majors if he elevates it more consistently. I'd much rather see him unlock that high K rate he had in AA/AAA and not be so BABIP reliant.
For those who can't see the tweet:
Bello's 4-seamer outcomes in the upper half of the zone: 28.2% Whiff, 31.3% K, .182 wOBA, 86.1mph EV
Lower half of the zone: 11.7% Whiff, 6.6% K, .530 wOBA, 93.7mph EV
While it's true for every pitcher that 4-seamers are better when elevated, it was noted in the replies that Bello's 4-seamer fares much worse in the lower part of the zone than other RH starters.
I believe the Vladdy HR came on one of those 4-seamers lower in the zone. I do recall that when Bello was in the upper minors last year, he was labeled as a "bad fastball" guy in some prospect circles, and favoring the sinker helped him. But it's encouraging to know his 4-seamer can still play in the majors if he elevates it more consistently. I'd much rather see him unlock that high K rate he had in AA/AAA and not be so BABIP reliant.
For those who can't see the tweet:
Bello's 4-seamer outcomes in the upper half of the zone: 28.2% Whiff, 31.3% K, .182 wOBA, 86.1mph EV
Lower half of the zone: 11.7% Whiff, 6.6% K, .530 wOBA, 93.7mph EV
While it's true for every pitcher that 4-seamers are better when elevated, it was noted in the replies that Bello's 4-seamer fares much worse in the lower part of the zone than other RH starters.
It would be the longest contract given to any pitcher ever, which all by itself gives me pause regardless of the money. And I like Bello.
As far as the money goes, the Spencer Strider contract feels like a good baseline to me. That was signed after his first full season (last year), was a 6/$75M with a club option that could turn it into 7/92, and is the highest AAV ever given to a player with only one year of service time ($12.5M). It will carry him through is age 30 season. A similar deal signed this winter would take Bello through age 31. Strider had a much better first full season than Bello has had (131 IP, 2.67 ERA, 0.995 WHIP vs 148 IP, 3.71 ERA, 1.264 WHIP) so I can't see why Bello should be guaranteed 3 more years and about $10M/year more in salary.
How about a 7/100 offer with maybe a club option for an 8th season at ~$25M? That's probably where I'd top out right now.
Wayne Garland signed for ten years in 1978, which I believe remains the record for a pitcher. His arm fell off almost immediately.