Let's Talk About Bello

BaseballJones

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Bello:

First 2 starts: 7.1 ip (3.2/start), 13 h, 8 r, 8 er, 3 bb, 8 k, 9.82 era, 6.35 fip, 2.18 whip, 9.8 k/9

Last 2 starts: 10.0 ip (5.0/start), 11 h, 5 r, 3 er, 3 bb, 11 k, 2.70 era, 4.65 fip, 1.40 whip, 9.9 k/9

Also on the right track.
 

geoflin

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Bello is looking like he's aaaaaaaallllllmost there to be a "no. 2" and then the rest of the rotation isn't an issue really- Pivetta being Pivetta, Houck/Paxton and Whitlock/Kluber are fine 3-5....
I hope I'm wrong but I'm not convinced they won't send Bello back to Worcester to make room for Paxton.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Couldn’t watch yesterday but Bello’s line looked great. Any analysis or commentary here? Feels like he should have a rotation spot locked down at this point.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Couldn’t watch yesterday but Bello’s line looked great. Any analysis or commentary here? Feels like he should have a rotation spot locked down at this point.
He did a much better job of throwing strikes early in the count after the first inning. Also, I need to check but it felt like he was much more affective in the top of the zone with the four seam. His four seam and sinker really played well off of each other.

The swing and miss generated against that qualify of a lineup was pretty amazing. I think there is a better chance Bello is the best starter on this team vs. is he a top 5 starter...
 

simplicio

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I'll cross post mine from the other thread:
His last 3 games have been pretty consistent. Getting over his fingernail trouble and getting the extra inning from him was great. Some long at bats in the first but then he got more efficient, and did a really nice job getting out of 2 on no outs in the third. He got Ks with all four pitches.

Would love to see him getting through 7, and stop giving up a home run every game. But he's feeling like a solid mid rotation arm or even a 2 right now, with room for growth. I'm excited.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I'll cross post mine from the other thread:
His last 3 games have been pretty consistent. Getting over his fingernail trouble and getting the extra inning from him was great. Some long at bats in the first but then he got more efficient, and did a really nice job getting out of 2 on no outs in the third. He got Ks with all four pitches.

Would love to see him getting through 7, and stop giving up a home run every game. But he's feeling like a solid mid rotation arm or even a 2 right now, with room for growth. I'm excited.
Probably going out on a limb at this point, but Sale has been looking good (not great vintage Sale) enough to pair with Bello as a combo good enough to carry a team with the bullpen and offense into the playoffs. Sale's season-long health has been questionable even before his extension so the rotation still has a lot of "ifs". BUT IF the back end of the rotation (I'm still guessing Paxton, Kluber and Pivetta) can couple up with Houck, Whitlock and Crawford on a regular basis with Winchowski staying even close to as successful as he's been in his role... I think it turns out to be a very strong staff that could go far in the playoffs.

Edit- probably best in the "rotation" thread
 

simplicio

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Progression of his metrics from last year is interesting. Significant improvement in Ks and walks, but so far his hard hit numbers are awful. Don't know how much of that is skewed by SSS and Acuna hitting the ball 800 feet etc, but he was mid-decent in those categories last year. He's also dropped about 100rpm off his sinker and 4-seam.
6463064631
 

chrisfont9

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Probably going out on a limb at this point, but Sale has been looking good (not great vintage Sale) enough to pair with Bello as a combo good enough to carry a team with the bullpen and offense into the playoffs. Sale's season-long health has been questionable even before his extension so the rotation still has a lot of "ifs". BUT IF the back end of the rotation (I'm still guessing Paxton, Kluber and Pivetta) can couple up with Houck, Whitlock and Crawford on a regular basis with Winchowski staying even close to as successful as he's been in his role... I think it turns out to be a very strong staff that could go far in the playoffs.

Edit- probably best in the "rotation" thread
Bringing this back to Bello specifically, this is a super interesting time for the team. They can yo-yo Bello because he has options and in the short term that makes sense. But as they get closer to the playoffs, the urgency to have TOP END starting surpasses the depth approach in effect now. As you say, Bello-Sale-?? (possibly Paxton based on past performance?) plus a deep if not star-studded lineup is a threat.
[In hindsight I might just be repeating you...]
 

BaseballJones

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Yep.

First 2 starts: 7.1 ip (3.2/start), 13 h, 8 r, 8 er, 3 bb, 8 k, 9.82 era, 6.35 fip, 2.18 whip, 9.8 k/9
Last 3 starts: 16.0 ip (5.1/start), 17 h, 7 r, 5 er, 4 bb, 16 k, 2.81 era, 4.50 fip, 1.31 whip, 9.0 k/9

Trending up! Kind of like last year.

2022...

First 3 starts: 12.0 ip (4.0/start), 22 h, 14 r, 14 er, 8 bb, 9 k, 10.50 era, 3.86 fip, 2.50 whip, 6.8 k/9
Last 8 starts: 40.1 ip (5.0/start), 47 h, 18 r, 14 er, 16 bb, 40 k, 3.12 era, 2.64 fip, 1.51 whip, 8.9 k/9
 

Green Monster

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for me I saw some growth yesterday. He had a few instances with runners on base early with nobody out and he was able to buckle down and minimize damage. ... future is bright!
 

LogansDad

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There was discussion a week or two ago about whether we should be concerned about his dip in velocity, but I think it's actually the opposite to me. I think it is a sign of him going from "very good thrower and effective pitcher" to "a very, very good pitcher" who has command of his arsenal and isn't just throwing it.

His comments about moving to a cutter because he had trouble controlling the slider kind of reinforces this feeling to me.

I think he is on the verge of becoming an exceptional starting pitcher. I am really excited to see what the future holds for him.
 

BigJay

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I'm actually disappointed he lost his eligibility by 7.1 IP last year. Having two redsox finish 1-2 in roy voting would've been cool to see.
 

JM3

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I'm actually disappointed he lost his eligibility by 7.1 IP last year. Having two redsox finish 1-2 in roy voting would've been cool to see.
Josh Jung is the current betting favorite for AL ROY, followed by Yoshida. It's too bad we wouldn't qualify for the extra draft pick if Yoshida wins - even if it makes sense.
 

TFisNEXT

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I posted about Bello in the rotation thread earlier but I’ll paraphrase in here too since this is the Bello thread:


He ‘s already an ace-in-the-making when you look under the hood. He looks kind of like pre-2023 Framber Valdez….with that extreme ground ball rate to go along with ~9 K/9 and ~3 BB/9.

The 2023 version of Framber took another step by upping the K rate a touch and lowering the BB rate below 2 per 9…that’s true ace material and there is every reason to believe Bello can make the same progression given the pure stuff he has and minor league track record of solid control.
 

sezwho

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Bello has confirmed he is now throwing a cutter. That he started working on THIS WEEK….(snip)
Thanks for sharing especially for the non twitter people. He is already so much fun to watch pitch, and whether the cutter takes (please please) or not, it’s a great sign that he’s still grinding.

Also, I hear ’Bello….me say Bello’ in my head every time this thread bumps.
 

BaseballJones

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Bello:

First 2 starts: 7.1 ip (3.2 ip/start), 13 h, 8 r, 8 er, 3 bb, 8 k, 9.82 era, 2.18 whip
Last 11 starts: 65.2 ip (6.0 ip/start), 52 h, 19 r, 17 er, 19 bb, 59 k, 2.33 era, 1.08 whip

In his last 11 starts, he's given up:

0 ER: 0 times
1 ER: 6 times (including his last 3 starts)
2 ER: 4 times
3 ER: 1 time
4+ ER: 0 times

So in 10 of his last 11 starts, he's given up 2 ER or fewer. Incredibly, his record over those 11 starts is just 5-4, with 2 ND.

Here's how he's done in the games he's gotten the L:

May 23 at LAA: 7.0 ip, 6 h, 2 r, 2 er, 0 bb, 6 k (Sox lost 4-0)
May 30 vs Cin: 4.0 ip, 5 h, 1 r, 1 er, 2 bb, 4 k (Sox lost 9-8)
June 5 vs TB: 6.0 ip, 6 h, 3 r, 3 er, 1 bb, 5 k (Sox lost 4-1)
June 29 vs Mia: 7.0 ip, 2 h, 1 r, 1 er, 1 bb, 5 k (Sox lost 2-0)

His two ND:

Apr 29 vs Cle: 5.0 ip, 5 h, 1 r, 1 er, 2 bb, 6 k (Sox won 8-7)
June 11 at NYY: 7.0 ip, 3 h, 2 r, 2 er, 2 bb, 3 k (Sox won 3-2)

He very easily could be 11-1 right now. Not that SP W-L records mean much these days, but still. In his last 4 losses, the Red Sox' offense scored 0 or 1 runs in 3 of them, and in the one game where they scored a ton (vs Cin), the Sox scored 5 in the bottom of the ninth to make it a close game. So the dude is getting very little run support. Even in his last 3 wins the Sox have scored just 3, 4, and 3 runs. So he's had to be pretty much spot on in every start he makes.
 

BigSoxFan

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Bello:

First 2 starts: 7.1 ip (3.2 ip/start), 13 h, 8 r, 8 er, 3 bb, 8 k, 9.82 era, 2.18 whip
Last 11 starts: 65.2 ip (6.0 ip/start), 52 h, 19 r, 17 er, 19 bb, 59 k, 2.33 era, 1.08 whip

In his last 11 starts, he's given up:

0 ER: 0 times
1 ER: 6 times (including his last 3 starts)
2 ER: 4 times
3 ER: 1 time
4+ ER: 0 times

So in 10 of his last 11 starts, he's given up 2 ER or fewer. Incredibly, his record over those 11 starts is just 5-4, with 2 ND.

Here's how he's done in the games he's gotten the L:

May 23 at LAA: 7.0 ip, 6 h, 2 r, 2 er, 0 bb, 6 k (Sox lost 4-0)
May 30 vs Cin: 4.0 ip, 5 h, 1 r, 1 er, 2 bb, 4 k (Sox lost 9-8)
June 5 vs TB: 6.0 ip, 6 h, 3 r, 3 er, 1 bb, 5 k (Sox lost 4-1)
June 29 vs Mia: 7.0 ip, 2 h, 1 r, 1 er, 1 bb, 5 k (Sox lost 2-0)

His two ND:

Apr 29 vs Cle: 5.0 ip, 5 h, 1 r, 1 er, 2 bb, 6 k (Sox won 8-7)
June 11 at NYY: 7.0 ip, 3 h, 2 r, 2 er, 2 bb, 3 k (Sox won 3-2)

He very easily could be 11-1 right now. Not that SP W-L records mean much these days, but still. In his last 4 losses, the Red Sox' offense scored 0 or 1 runs in 3 of them, and in the one game where they scored a ton (vs Cin), the Sox scored 5 in the bottom of the ninth to make it a close game. So the dude is getting very little run support. Even in his last 3 wins the Sox have scored just 3, 4, and 3 runs. So he's had to be pretty much spot on in every start he makes.
It sucks for his counting stats but I wonder if the lack of run support has actually been a development positive for Bello. He knows he has to basically be perfect and I think it’s helped him to stay locked in and execute. But it sure would be nice for the team to actually help him out for once.
 

YTF

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It sucks for his counting stats but I wonder if the lack of run support has actually been a development positive for Bello. He knows he has to basically be perfect and I think it’s helped him to stay locked in and execute. But it sure would be nice for the team to actually help him out for once.
In some way perhaps it has been or at least it hasn't seemed to affect him. On the exterior he's shown the poise and ability to just go about his business despite the lack of support, remaining focused on what he's able to control.
 

Saints Rest

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I was lucky enough to be at the game last night. A couple observations that might not have been noticed on TV:
  • He worked quickly. Rarely did the pitch clock get below 10 before he was in his windup.
  • When the infield hit happened, there was a nice exchange between him and Kike where Kike seemed to be apologizing for not making the play and BB was very gracious about praising Kikes effort to pull off the impossible.
  • First pitch after that first hit was a strike. Nice to see he remained locked in, even if he did give up another hit.
 

DeadlySplitter

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I think it’s time to offer the pre-arb extension. I’d do it at the All-Star break but they’ll probably wait for offseason.
 

BaseballJones

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I think it’s time to offer the pre-arb extension. I’d do it at the All-Star break but they’ll probably wait for offseason.
Plenty of time for that. I'd definitely wait to see him go a full season. The league will adjust to him and then I'd like to see him adjust back.

But clearly he has worlds of talent and is a guy I want them to have for a long, long time.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Plenty of time for that. I'd definitely wait to see him go a full season. The league will adjust to him and then I'd like to see him adjust back.

But clearly he has worlds of talent and is a guy I want them to have for a long, long time.
I was thinking about an extension after last night’s game, too. What would it look like? Something close to Hunter Greene’s?

Here’s what the Reds gave him this spring:
“The 23-year-old Greene signed a six-year, $53 million contract extension, the team announced before Tuesday's game. The contract begins this season and bought out at least the first year he was eligible for free agency. The deal includes a $21 million club option for a seventh season, in 2029, with a $2 million buyout.

There are performance escalators in Greene's contract for the 2028 season and club option year that could bump the total value of the contract to $96.2 million, sources familiar with the contract told The Enquirer. Greene, who received a $2 million signing bonus, is guaranteed $1 million in 2023, $3 million in '24, $6 million in '25, $8 million in '26, $15 million in '27 and $16 million in '28.”
https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/mlb/reds/2023/04/18/hunter-greene-pitcher-agrees-to-six-year-contract-with-reds/70128222007/
 

YTF

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Plenty of time for that. I'd definitely wait to see him go a full season. The league will adjust to him and then I'd like to see him adjust back.

But clearly he has worlds of talent and is a guy I want them to have for a long, long time.
I think this is a good point. AL east is likely to be tough at least for a couple of more years. I'd like to see him face these division rivals another time or two.
 

YTF

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I was thinking about an extension after last night’s game, too. What would it look like? Something close to Hunter Greene’s?

Here’s what the Reds gave him this spring:
“The 23-year-old Greene signed a six-year, $53 million contract extension, the team announced before Tuesday's game. The contract begins this season and bought out at least the first year he was eligible for free agency. The deal includes a $21 million club option for a seventh season, in 2029, with a $2 million buyout.

There are performance escalators in Greene's contract for the 2028 season and club option year that could bump the total value of the contract to $96.2 million, sources familiar with the contract told The Enquirer. Greene, who received a $2 million signing bonus, is guaranteed $1 million in 2023, $3 million in '24, $6 million in '25, $8 million in '26, $15 million in '27 and $16 million in '28.”
https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/mlb/reds/2023/04/18/hunter-greene-pitcher-agrees-to-six-year-contract-with-reds/70128222007/
Greene also made 24 starts last season vs just 11 for Bello, but I certainly hope that the Sox are starting the framework of for an extension that they can agree to once the season is over.
 

JM3

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Let's just go 15/$200m & worry about it again in 2038.
 

TFisNEXT

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Plenty of time for that. I'd definitely wait to see him go a full season. The league will adjust to him and then I'd like to see him adjust back.

But clearly he has worlds of talent and is a guy I want them to have for a long, long time.
Bello has been a little bit lucky, so I expect at least some regression as 2023 goes on (his perphs are more like a mid-high 3s ERA type guy right now), but I don't think he's going to get thrown off too much by the league adjusting to him. He throws filthy sinking fastballs and has an elite ground ball rate up there with guys like Framber Valdez. The league can only do so much when your pitches force a bunch of worm-burners and you have good command....and Bello has both.

I think as Bello matures, we'll see his K rate come up some. He had huge K numbers in the minors that haven't yet translated to the majors. If he can up his K rate a touch while maintaining his walk rate, then he basically becomes a legit ace. Lower the walk rate down to near 2 BB/9, and he becomes a top 5-10 ace.
 

Daniel_Son

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Ran a quick scan of all pitchers from May 1-June 30, min. 50 IP. Here's where Bello ranks:

ERA: 2.37 (4th)
FIP: 3.32 (13th)
WHIP: 1.05 (19th)
AVG: 2.04 (11th)
LOB%: 79.5% (18th)
GB%: 57.1% (4th)
WAR: 1.4 (18th)

So yeah. Basically, he's been a top-10-15ish pitcher in the league for two months. At 24 years old. I don't think the Sox have had a home-grown pitcher like this in a very, very long time.
 

Niastri

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For all the fielding problems we have a guy who throws sinking pitches and yet he's that far below his FIP?
Perhaps Bello has had a little bit of defensive luck, compared to the average. But more likely FIP only calculates what would "normally" happen on a ground ball, so adjusts to a normal BABIP when calculating FIP. Bello isn't giving up normal ground balls, where some are bouncers and others are rockets. He's giving up a disproportionate number of soft bouncers that are easy even for our guys to field and get outs on. FIP doesn't understand that.

Many times FIP doesn't work as well for high ground ball pitchers who create soft contact. I'm excited to see what his actual results look like with good middle infielders behind him. Mayer or another plus defender probably gets the out on the grounder that ended the no hitter.

Here's a quote from an article on the topic, linked below.

"Pitchers (snip) who generate nearly half their outs on the ground, will never have great FIPs because FIP only rewards pitchers who strikeout lots of hitters. While the FIP model would argue that (ground ball pitchers) are the beneficiaries of good defense behind them, although this may be partially true, it also takes skill and outstanding control to be able to induce weak contact. FIP does not account for that element of what a pitcher can control"

http://diamond-digest.com/2018/11/23/why-we-need-to-be-cautious-using-fip/
 

simplicio

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Settling down after a long first and grinding through the various Hamilton miscues to pitch 7 tonight and let the pen rest was wonderful. I love how this kid keeps level in seemingly every circumstance. Extend!
 

TFisNEXT

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GB% for pitchers with at least 80 IP in 2023:

Logan Webb........... 60.2%
Marcus Stroman.....59.7%
Alex Cobb................57.4%
Framber Valdez.......56.5%
Brayan Bello............55.8%
Hunter Brown..........55.7%
Bryce Elder...............54.5%
Zach Eflin.................53.1%

Highest ERA in this group is Hunter Brown at 3.76. Bello slicing his walk rate nearly in half from 2022 (4.24 BB/9 to 2.48 BB/9) is the first transformation into a stud starter that we've seen so far in 2023. This was expected as he showed good control in the minors. The next transformation is to at least partially translate his huge minor league K rates to the majors which he has yet to do. If that occurs while maintaining his GB rate, then he turns into a top 5-10 ace in baseball.
 

joe dokes

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GB% for pitchers with at least 80 IP in 2023:

Logan Webb........... 60.2%
Marcus Stroman.....59.7%
Alex Cobb................57.4%
Framber Valdez.......56.5%
Brayan Bello............55.8%
Hunter Brown..........55.7%
Bryce Elder...............54.5%
Zach Eflin.................53.1%

Highest ERA in this group is Hunter Brown at 3.76. Bello slicing his walk rate nearly in half from 2022 (4.24 BB/9 to 2.48 BB/9) is the first transformation into a stud starter that we've seen so far in 2023. This was expected as he showed good control in the minors. The next transformation is to at least partially translate his huge minor league K rates to the majors which he has yet to do. If that occurs while maintaining his GB rate, then he turns into a top 5-10 ace in baseball.
To be successful with a high GB rate with this team's defense is quite an accomplishment.
 

TFisNEXT

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Per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe:

Assuming Bello is done, he is the 8th Red Sox ever at age 24 or younger with 5 straight outings of at least 6 1/3 innings and no more than 2 runs allowed, and the first since Clemens in '86 and Eck in '78. This is impressive company.
 

canderson

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He's a joy to watch. He gets the ball, throws the ball, and doesn't seem to get distracted by poor play or bad luck or a bad pitch. We saw him in Minnesota in late August last year and while got squeezed and didn't pitch great, you could see his attitude never changed and he kept focus despite fairly egregious ball/strike calling.

That attitude, combined with his stuff, is by far the most exciting part of this Sox team and really the only thing to me worth focusing on.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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He's a joy to watch. He gets the ball, throws the ball, and doesn't seem to get distracted by poor play or bad luck or a bad pitch. We saw him in Minnesota in late August last year and while got squeezed and didn't pitch great, you could see his attitude never changed and he kept focus despite fairly egregious ball/strike calling.

That attitude, combined with his stuff, is by far the most exciting part of this Sox team and really the only thing to me worth focusing on.
Man... I don't want to poop on anyone's poop... but watching Duran develop completely beyond anyone's expectations has been pretty exciting for me. Yeah... Bello is definitely the gold-star on the team this season and definitely the most exciting thing.... but I'd add Casas (slow and cumbersome development) and Wong, along with Verdugo turning into an all around good player as other things to focus on. Hell... Crawford has been a great story so far too. Mr. Brightside is an apt nickname there...
 

BaseballJones

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I know the Sox haven't been very good this year, but how could anyone not be excited about the development of Bello, Duran, and Casas? And even Wong. That's four ENORMOUS pieces for this organization moving forward. Add to that the realization that Yoshida is the real deal, and there's an awful lot to be excited for in the years to come.

It's not adding up to a ton of wins now, but in many ways this year was all about finding the future. And we have five key pieces of the future in place and looking very, very good. (and only one of them is expensive - Yoshida - and even he doesn't cost that much really)
 

Jimbodandy

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I sucked it up and bought the NESN subscription for the rest of the year yesterday just to watch this kid's starts without having to do internet cartwheels to see him throw. Worth it.

Pitchability with all of those pitches. Setting guys up. True pleasure watching him throw a couple of cutters just to keep guys off balance yesterday after pounding two different fastballs, a gross changeup and a slider. Genuine surprise on faces and total dominance. Doesn't make a ton of bad pitches.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I know the Sox haven't been very good this year, but how could anyone not be excited about the development of Bello, Duran, and Casas? And even Wong. That's four ENORMOUS pieces for this organization moving forward. Add to that the realization that Yoshida is the real deal, and there's an awful lot to be excited for in the years to come.

It's not adding up to a ton of wins now, but in many ways this year was all about finding the future. And we have five key pieces of the future in place and looking very, very good. (and only one of them is expensive - Yoshida - and even he doesn't cost that much really)
No respect for Crawford? He's been a helluva surprise too. I get that there's a lot of distrust with him as a long term potential starter due to struggling last season, not ever having a kickass minor league career prior, and starting off in the bullpen this season. But I've really liked what I've seen of him since his move to the rotation. I'll also add that he looked really good his first 4 starts in '22 but apparently there was some shoulder problem that he pitched through and it clearly affected his numbers.
He's made some adjustments that look to have really changed his approach. I honestly don't know what to expect of him moving forward, but he's definitely adding another young controllable pitcher to the long-term outlook that should have people excited.
 

canderson

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Man... I don't want to poop on anyone's poop... but watching Duran develop completely beyond anyone's expectations has been pretty exciting for me. Yeah... Bello is definitely the gold-star on the team this season and definitely the most exciting thing.... but I'd add Casas (slow and cumbersome development) and Wong, along with Verdugo turning into an all around good player as other things to focus on. Hell... Crawford has been a great story so far too. Mr. Brightside is an apt nickname there...
Oh very fair point - no disrespect to Duran, Crawford and Wong (not sold at all on Casas) … just Bello legit seems like he’ll be a superstar and that’s so exciting.
 

Daniel_Son

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I know the Sox haven't been very good this year, but how could anyone not be excited about the development of Bello, Duran, and Casas? And even Wong. That's four ENORMOUS pieces for this organization moving forward. Add to that the realization that Yoshida is the real deal, and there's an awful lot to be excited for in the years to come.

It's not adding up to a ton of wins now, but in many ways this year was all about finding the future. And we have five key pieces of the future in place and looking very, very good. (and only one of them is expensive - Yoshida - and even he doesn't cost that much really)
I'd even add Verdugo to the list. We've only got him for [EDIT] 1.5 more years, but he's really stepped up this season and unlocked that All-Star potential that he had when we first acquired him. This year, among all RF, he's 10th in wRC+, 9th in wOBA, and 7th in fWAR. He's also 2nd in UZR and Defensive Runs Saved. Aside from the stats, it seems like he's become a leader in the clubhouse, which is incredibly valuable for the young guys. Bello has obviously been electric, but Verdugo is the guy who's growth I'm most excited about this year. I hope the Sox offer him an extension.
 
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