That strikes me as a more emotional calculation of the odds that tracks with actual lottery tickets.
After watching JBJ, Franchy, & Dalbec eat enough PAs that you have to assume that they constituted an actual plan, the risk is that Bellinger eats another couple hundred PAs providing the same offense he has for the last 900 while also blocking another option who might not have as much name recognition, but will provide more real production.
This against the odds of him returning from his injury to put up something even like his 2020, but really looking for a 2019-like jackpot, which seems highly unlikely IMO. It's the dream that fuel lottery sales, but the reward is otherwise just as fleeting...