Let's sign some hitters!

[moondog80]

I tried to run it through BTV but surprisingly, Yelich is listed at -126.4 trade value, which means that Yelich plus both Burnes (78.3) and Woodruff (37.8) is still a negative trade value. That doesn't seem right - Yelich has underplayed his contract but he's not that bad. Does anyone have a more accurate idea on what a realistic trade for either would look like? Would a headliner of Whitlock/Houck + Casas get it done?

I can't pinpoint Yelich's value but his contract is pretty bad and a good example of how "sign your guys before they hit free agency" isn't the magic solution some people think it is.

The Brewers extended him in the spring of 202, when he was 28, coming off seasons where he was 2nd and 1st in MVP, and two full seasons away from free agency. In three seasons since, he has put up OPS+ of 110, 101, and 111, while having negative defensive value at a position very low on the defensive spectrum (LF). And they owe Yelich 26 million a year for the next six seasons, plus a 6.5 mil buyout in year 7.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

I can't pinpoint Yelich's value but his contract is pretty bad and a good example of how "sign your guys before they hit free agency" isn't the magic solution some people think it is.

The Brewers extended him in the spring of 202, when he was 28, coming off seasons where he was 2nd and 1st in MVP, and two full seasons away from free agency. In three seasons since, he has put up OPS+ of 110, 101, and 111, while having negative defensive value at a position very low on the defensive spectrum (LF). And they owe Yelich 26 million a year for the next six seasons, plus a 6.5 mil buyout in year 7.

How much would it take for us to be interested? MIL paying $8M/yr? $10M? More? Depends on who he's handcuffed to and what they ask in return, but I'd think money has to be coming the way of anyone who trades for Yelich at this point.

 

[chrisfont9]

I think the Renfroe/JBJ deal was meant to be that type of deal, but what it ended up becoming is a reminder that Chaim isn't really as smart as he thinks he is..

Why? Are we down on the prospects already? Because that was his goal. Sure, Renfroe might have helped this year (until he ran into above average RHP, when he'd just strike out), but that wasn't a trade for 2022.

 

[kazuneko]

Why? Are we down on the prospects already? Because that was his goal. Sure, Renfroe might have helped this year (until he ran into above average RHP, when he'd just strike out), but that wasn't a trade for 2022.

MM posted that Chaim was looking for a trade where "The real goal is to take on a bad contract on a player who isn’t actually a bad player, and to do that to acquire talent without giving up as many prospect resources".
In response you suggested that was akin to the JBJ/Renfroe trade.
So I'm confused. Are you saying that JBJ was a player "who wasn't actually bad" or that his contract only seemed like an overpayment? As I'm sure you know, he ended up DFA'd by the Sox before completing that deal, and the time that he was cut he was hitting .210 with a .578 OPS. That ranked him 193rd out of 199 players with at least 275 plate appearances. And that cost the Sox $17.5 million ($9.5 million for 2022 plus an $8 million buyout for 23') So yeah, JBJ really was cooked and it really was a bad contract.
Meanwhile, the Sox gave up Hunter Renfroe to Milwaukee. At the time of the trade it's clear that Bloom thought he was an overvalued asset. After all, he had just had a career best season, putting up a very solid 344 wOBA. The thought was he was likely to get worse, and that in flipping him for an "undervalued" asset like JBJ the Sox could acquire near equal value while also securing a couple of solid prospects. What ended up happening? Renfroe improved to .347 w/OBA, hitting 29 homers for the Brewers, a number that would have led the power-poor 22' Red Sox - all while only getting paid nearly $10 million less ($7,650,000) than what the Sox paid Bradley. To make it worse, Renfroe is still under contract (arbitration eligible) for one more year. And this doesn't even go into the fact that the 22' Sox could have really, really used a power-hitting RF, something that they could still use, and still would have (for next year as well-) if Bloom hadn't outmaneuvered himself by trading away one of his best signings of 21'.
But yeah, we did get two prospects: David Hamilton and Alex Binelas. How will they do? I guess the jury is out, but they currently rank as the 24th and 30th best prospects in the Sox system. At the time of the trade, Binelas was seen as the real prize, but his star faded a bit in the past year, as he put up a disappointing .745 OPS as a defensively challenged bat-first prospect in AA.
So yeah, this is not at all a good example of Bloom finding value out of a devalued contract, but instead a great example of him horribly misjudging player values, both at the major league level and -potentially- at the prospect level.

 

[chrisfont9]

MM posted that Chaim was looking for a trade where "The real goal is to take on a bad contract on a player who isn’t actually a bad player, and to do that to acquire talent without giving up as many prospect resources".
In response you suggested that was akin to the JBJ/Renfroe trade.
So I'm confused. Are you saying that JBJ was a player "who wasn't actually bad" or that his contract only seemed like an overpayment? As I'm sure you know, he ended up DFA'd by the Sox before completing that deal, and the time that he was cut he was hitting .210 with a .578 OPS. That ranked him 193rd out of 199 players with at least 275 plate appearances. And that cost the Sox $17.5 million ($9.5 million for 2022 plus an $8 million buyout for 23') So yeah, JBJ really was cooked and it really was a bad contract.
Meanwhile, the Sox gave up Hunter Renfroe to Milwaukee. At the time of the trade it's clear that Bloom thought he was an overvalued asset. After all, he had just had a career best season, putting up a very solid 344 wOBA. The thought was he was likely to get worse, and that in flipping him for an "undervalued" asset like JBJ the Sox could acquire near equal value while also securing a couple of solid prospects. What ended up happening? Renfroe improved to .347 w/OBA, hitting 29 homers for the Brewers, a number that would have led the power-poor 22' Red Sox - all while only getting paid nearly $10 million less ($7,650,000) than what the Sox paid Bradley. To make it worse, Renfroe is still under contract (arbitration eligible) for one more year. And this doesn't even go into the fact that the 22' Sox could have really, really used a power-hitting RF, something that they could still use, and still would have (for next year as well-) if Bloom hadn't outmaneuvered himself by trading away one of his best signings of 21'.
But yeah, we did get two prospects: David Hamilton and Alex Binelas. How will they do? I guess the jury is out, but they currently rank as the 24th and 30th best prospects in the Sox system. At the time of the trade, Binelas was seen as the real prize, but his star faded a bit in the past year, as he put up a disappointing .745 OPS as a defensively challenged bat-first prospect in AA.
So yeah, this is not at all a good example of Bloom finding value out of a devalued contract, but instead a great example of him horribly misjudging player values, both at the major league level and -potentially- at the prospect level.

You keep wanting to assess this trade based on 2022 returns, and my hunch -- which is all it is, of course -- is that Chaim didn't care about the 2022 part all that much. Obviously bringing back JBJ was purely a flier on a guy they weren't counting on and figured he'd be a good person to have around, with some defensive upside. [And then Kiké got hurt and everyone else did too and it all fell apart.] I completely disagree with your supposition that the Sox made the trade because they thought JBJ was undervalued. Renfroe then went out and had ... you say "improved" but it was really just an identical season. So if 2022 was all that mattered, it's a bad trade.

I feel like a broken record, but Chaim and Kennedy seem to be telling us that they are in the middle of a long-term overhaul, which is supported by all of their actions. They are getting control of payroll and stockpiling assets, which suggests that they view their window as later, not 2022. [I'd say 2024 and beyond, but we'll see.] There was no way to build a serious challenger for 2022, but Chaim knows Sox fans are restless so they hedged and put a plausible team out there, like in 2021 when it went well enough. this year it didn't. Injuries suck.

But my main point is that they made this trade for the future, that they only care about Binelas and Hamilton, they never cared much about JBJ's production except to paper over 2022 while waiting for the plan to take hold. They didn't care about Renfroe because he only barely moves the needle in the short term -- you HAVE to consider defense, not just wOBA -- and by 2024 he won't be underpaid anymore, so what's the point in hanging on to him? And if you aren't impressed by the prospects, all I can tell you is go back through the Astros' prospect history. The guys on the mound last night weren't elite prospects throughout, but they had talent and they eventually developed. You have to be patient. Which very few Sox fans are ever willing to be.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Binelas and Hamilton don’t look like legit prospects, though. It’s possible Binelas turns in to one, he’s just 22, but the track record on guys who hit .166 in AA probably isn’t great.

 

[chrisfont9]

Binelas and Hamilton don’t look like legit prospects, though. It’s possible Binelas turns in to one, he’s just 22, but the track record on guys who hit .166 in AA probably isn’t great.

Sure, although if we are looking at half-season samples, his second half of 2021 he OPS'd 1.015 and had a .444 OBP in part of A ball. The track record on guys who move up a level and struggle some is pretty lengthy. He was 22 in AA, he's on a reasonable trajectory. You never know. But you can also only expect so much in return for a guy you benched in the playoffs.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Sure, although if we are looking at half-season samples, his second half of 2021 he OPS'd 1.015 and had a .444 OBP in part of A ball. The track record on guys who move up a level and struggle some is pretty lengthy. He was 22 in AA, he's on a reasonable trajectory. You never know. But you can also only expect so much in return for a guy you benched in the playoffs.

It's the "is also terrible at defense... at 1B". There's only one move down on the defensive spectrum, and that's at a position that pretty much everyone would like to see occupied only by rotating players in and out of their regular positions for a breather w/o removing their productive bat from the lineup. There's plenty of time for him possibly to improve enough and it's always worth it to accumulate lots of big sluggers. Next year he really needs to improve to not make that whole deal look like Bloom seriously whiffed.

 

[mikcou]

Sure, although if we are looking at half-season samples, his second half of 2021 he OPS'd 1.015 and had a .444 OBP in part of A ball. The track record on guys who move up a level and struggle some is pretty lengthy. He was 22 in AA, he's on a reasonable trajectory. You never know. But you can also only expect so much in return for a guy you benched in the playoffs.

His .444 OBP was over ~25 PAs in a complex league. He did have a 1000+ OPS in ~150 PAs in A ball as a 21 year old college player, but that isnt anything special for a college player whose bat needs to carry him.

Were basically talking about another Niko Kavadas type who might be a marginally better defender at first. Kavadas wouldnt get one year of Hunter Renfroe right now. If the trade was based solely on the minors guys they got back, then it was a really poor trade.

 

[chawson]

But my main point is that they made this trade for the future, that they only care about Binelas and Hamilton, they never cared much about JBJ's production except to paper over 2022 while waiting for the plan to take hold. They didn't care about Renfroe because he only barely moves the needle in the short term -- you HAVE to consider defense, not just wOBA -- and by 2024 he won't be underpaid anymore, so what's the point in hanging on to him? And if you aren't impressed by the prospects, all I can tell you is go back through the Astros' prospect history. The guys on the mound last night weren't elite prospects throughout, but they had talent and they eventually developed. You have to be patient. Which very few Sox fans are ever willing to be.

I think this mostly captures it but not quite.

Bloom saw 2022 as a year to “break in” Duran and Cordero, is my read. It was easier to do that with an outfield of Verdugo/Kiké/JBJ than Verdugo/Kiké/Renfroe.

Their strong 2021 seasons had established Kiké and Renfroe as full-time, non-platoonable regulars. You can’t just start playing Duran over either of them — they’d be pissed, and rightly so. Instead, you can trade one, creating an opportunity for Duran and Cordero to compete for playing time after a late spring tuneup in AAA. You take another flier on a line-drive machine like Refsnyder, who Bloom was correct about, as further insurance/competition.

Of course, the idea is to create an opportunity, not a black hole. On paper at least, JBJ replaced Renfroe’s bat with defensive value, and offered some hope of an offensive rebound. It didn’t work out, as we know, and the whole design fell apart when Kiké went down with a blood clot, pulling Duran to center, and Dalbec forgot how to hit the ball hard, pulling Cordero to first.

Personally I would have preferred just to trade Duran, pick up Daniel Vogelbach (not Shaw) to platoon with Dalbec and keep Cordero as an OF4. But we had just signed that Brewers scout and he was clearly high on Binelas.

 

[chrisfont9]

make that whole deal look like Bloom seriously whiffed.

Though, again, it was a couple lottery tickets for Hunter "I will soon be overpaid and therefore valueless" Renfroe. Jeter Downs was a serious whiff. Getting not much back for Renfroe is like missing on a $5 scratch ticket.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Though, again, it was a couple lottery tickets for Hunter "I will soon be overpaid and therefore valueless" Renfroe. Jeter Downs was a serious whiff. Getting not much back for Renfroe is like missing on a $5 scratch ticket.

They didn’t just give up Renfroe (a guy they could really use this coming year), though, they also assumed a lot of salary with JbJ.

 

[chrisfont9]

I think this mostly captures it but not quite.

Bloom saw 2022 as a year to “break in” Duran and Cordero, is my read. It was easier to do that with an outfield of Verdugo/Kiké/JBJ than Verdugo/Kiké/Renfroe.

Their strong 2021 seasons had established Kiké and Renfroe as full-time, non-platoonable regulars. You can’t just start playing Duran over either of them — they’d be pissed, and rightly so. Instead, you can trade one, creating an opportunity for Duran and Cordero to compete for playing time after a late spring tuneup in AAA. You take another flier on a line-drive machine like Refsnyder, who Bloom was correct about, as further insurance/competition.

Of course, the idea is to create an opportunity, not a black hole. On paper at least, JBJ replaced Renfroe’s bat with defensive value, and offered some hope of an offensive rebound. It didn’t work out, of course, and the whole design fell apart when Kiké went down with a blood clot, pulling Duran to center, and Dalbec forgot how to hit the ball hard, pulling Cordero to first.

Personally I would have preferred just to trade Duran, pick up Daniel Vogelbach (not Shaw) to platoon with Dalbec and keep Cordero as an OF4.

Agree! And this captures how most of us felt about the trade last winter. Then both Duran and Cordero got too many opportunities, beyond what they could handle (I still wonder about Cordero as a DH, free of the distraction of trying to play non-embarrassing defense), and here we are. But I don't like criticizing trades because of stuff that happened after the trade that wasn't especially foreseeable. Baseball will drive you crazy...

Duran is still tantalizing because his speed is downright disruptive. Maybe after talking about his anxiety he will have a whole different experience next time, but then Boston is a tough place to develop.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Just to chime back in, I was thinking less of JBJ+prospects for Renfroe and more of the “yes we‘ll give you Josh Beckett but only if you take the overpaid corpse of Mike Lowell“ deal. Find something like that, but without giving up Hanley v.2.0.

And make sure that the “overpaid” Mike Lowell v. 2.0 wins WS MVP soon thereafter. THAT’S the ideal…

And Yelich would qualify, but the trick would be balancing salary offset with other quality talent coming to us, cuz I wouldn’t really want them to absorb ALL of Yelich’s deal. (In terms of $$$, something closer to LA taking half of Price‘s contract to get Betts.)

 

[chrisfont9]

They didn’t just give up Renfroe (a guy they could really use this coming year), though, they also assumed a lot of salary with JbJ.

True, and I guess you could argue they should have expected more in return. Though again, Binelas had been mashing in A ball so?

 

[ehaz]

I think you could probably get Renfroe back in Boston for peanuts this winter as a short-term RF solution.

Last year of arbitration and his projected salary will be among the highest on the Brewers, who are cheap in general and may be especially incentivized to shed payroll if they extend any of their other late-arb guys like Woodruff, Burnes, or Adames.

 

[mikcou]

I think you could probably get Renfroe back in Boston for peanuts this winter as a short-term RF solution.

Last year of arbitration and his projected salary will be among the highest on the Brewers, who are cheap in general and may be especially incentivized to shed payroll if they extend any of their other late-arb guys like Woodruff, Burnes, or Adames.

They might want to trade him, but theyll get something valuable for him - solid average regulars dont grow on trees (especially at reasonable salaries) so there will be a number of teams interested in they do indeed look to move him.

 

[chrisfont9]

They might want to trade him, but theyll get something valuable for him - solid average regulars dont grow on trees (especially at reasonable salaries) so there will be a number of teams interested in they do indeed look to move him.

Only for a year. Then he's a free agent heading into his age-32 season with a middling-to-negative defensive record and a decent bat (if you can stomach the .300 OBP), whose age 29 and 30 seasons, his career best performances, pretty much resemble JD Martinez' last two years. Those guys do grow on trees.

 

[mikcou]

Only for a year. Then he's a free agent heading into his age-32 season with a middling-to-negative defensive record and a decent bat (if you can stomach the .300 OBP), whose age 29 and 30 seasons, his career best performances, pretty much resemble JD Martinez' last two years. Those guys do grow on trees.

Do they? I agree that guys with no position who can put up 115 OPS+ numbers do. Do average defensive RFs who can put up 115 OPS+ seasons? If they do, why is our outfield filled with guys who arent close to that?

Basically, I think youre seriously overrating how easy it is to find above average bats who can play RF at an average level. Would renfroe take a top 50 prospect? No. But, if Bloom offered MIL what he got from them, hed either get laughed at or just hear a click. Its not going to be a nominal salary dump level of compensation.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

If these guys grow on trees, why did the Sox give so many at bats last year to JBJ, Dalbec, Cordero, etc? The Sox gave thousands of at bats last year to outfielders worse than Renfroe.

 

[chrisfont9]

Do they? I agree that guys with no position who can put up 115 OPS+ numbers do. Do average defensive RFs who can put up 115 OPS+ seasons? If they do, why is our outfield filled with guys who arent close to that?

Basically, I think youre seriously overrating how easy it is to find above average bats who can play RF at an average level. Would renfroe take a top 50 prospect? No. But, if Bloom offered MIL what he got from them, hed either get laughed at or just hear a click. Its not going to be a nominal salary dump level of compensation.

Do you like him over Mitch Haniger, who is a free agent?

If these guys grow on trees, why did the Sox give so many at bats last year to JBJ, Dalbec, Cordero, etc? The Sox gave thousands of at bats last year to outfielders worse than Renfroe.

Can you please just scroll up? We covered this pretty exhaustively. tl:dr: it starts with massively bad injury luck.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Oh, ok? I see one post about it before mine, that’s covering it exhaustively? Trading Renfroe for two middling prospects and adding a bunch of salary is ok because maybe they can sign Mitch Haniger? Is that the argument? It’s ok to like
Bloom and to admit that the JbJ trade was a disaster.

 

[chrisfont9]

Oh, ok? I see one post about it before mine, that’s covering it exhaustively? Trading Renfroe for two middling prospects and adding a bunch of salary is ok because maybe they can sign Mitch Haniger? Is that the argument? It’s ok to like
Bloom and to admit that the JbJ trade was a disaster.

From Kazuneko's post there are 8 posts, some rather lengthy. We've been hashing this out for the last six hours.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

From Kazuneko's post there are 8 posts, some rather lengthy. We've been hashing this out for the last six hours.

Your post about these guys growing on trees was from like 90 minutes ago, but ok.

 

[mikcou]

Do you like him over Mitch Haniger, who is a free agent?

Yes. Haniger has a real problem staying on the field - he missed 2/3rds of last year after missing almost all of 2019 and 2020. At some point its important to be able to actually get on the field and play (and in 2021 when he was fully healthy he had a season consistent with Renfroe's seasons). Haniger's great 2018 is a long time ago at this point (and a number of serious injuries ago).

In any event, there is only one Haniger and he is going to get more money than the last year of Renfore, which is an important consideration for a number of the smaller market competing teams. Way more than one team needs solid to above average OFs - that was the point underpinning idea that the Brewers arent going to give Renfroe away for something nominal if they were to trade him.

 

[chrisfont9]

Your post about these guys growing on trees was from like 90 minutes ago, but ok.

You were seriously just asking specifically about posts that say growing on trees and not discussing Hunter Renfroe? OK, you win.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Rizzo opting out makes me happy. Always wished we had held onto him. Wouldn’t mind kicking the tires on him now.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Rizzo opting out makes me happy. Always wished we had held onto him. Wouldn’t mind kicking the tires on him now.

The Sox don’t really need a 1b, though

 

[jwbasham84]

While I wouldn't mind have an insurance policy for if Casas struggled, that seems like a luxury item for the team. I think Rizzo will cost far too much for such luxury when we have all the other holes to fill and potentially significant outlays to fill them.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

While I wouldn't mind have an insurance policy for if Casas struggled, that seems like a luxury item for the team. I think Rizzo will cost far too much for such luxury when we have all the other holes to fill and potentially significant outlays to fill them.

While it might not have the sizzle of a Rizzo, the Casas insurance policy is already in house and his name is Eric Hosmer.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

I was thinking more along the way of making Casas available for trade in a deal for a top line pitcher

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Possible Red Sox position player targets who received Qualifying Offers:
Nimmo
Trea Turner
Contreras
Joc Pederson
Judge
Rizzo

Signing one of these guys would cost our 2nd and 5th highest draft picks, plus $1 million in international bonus pool money. Hard to see us signing Nimmo, Rizzo, or Contreras now, and certainly not Pederson.

 

[begranter]

Trea Turner is a speed-first guy who led baseball in infield hits the last two years. He is currently an average shortstop by DRS/OAA and has a below-average arm, which suggests he’s not a great fit for CF/RF.

Speed ages poorly. The last time we signed a speed-first guy to a nine-figure contract into his thirties was a disaster. If you’re going to spend that much on an infielder and not sign Bogaerts, Correa is an infinitely better choice.

With the change in rules regarding shifts, bigger bases etc. speed might be more important than it has been in a long time. It'll almost certainly extend the usefulness of Turner's skillset there.

 

[NJ_Sox_Fan]

I doubt Judge is realistic, but I’d love for them to take a long look at Turner.

 

[Dewey'sCannon]

I said this in the other thread, but I'd like to keep Xander, extend Raffy and sign Turner to play CF.

If they did that, then I think they could just pick up a RH 1B/DH type to pair with Cases - maybe Mancini - and the lineup would be pretty set.

 

[simplicio]

Mancini has been an extremely mediocre hitter with bad defense for the last couple years, is there someone available with more upside than that?

Jose Abreu feels like a good fit to be a primary DH/backup 1B, but his value on the market may price him out of that role.

 

[chawson]

With the change in rules regarding shifts, bigger bases etc. speed might be more important than it has been in a long time. It'll almost certainly extend the usefulness of Turner's skillset there.

Trea Turner is a scary profile for me. He's got an off the charts BABIP, and it's not because he hits the ball especially hard, it's because he's fast. He has good power for a middle infielder, but his offensive production is almost entirely tied up in that power and what he can do on the base paths. He's not a good contact hitter (98th of 130 in 2022), his walk rate is below-average (103rd of 130) and he chases a lot of pitches out of the zone (108th of 130). I don't think that sets him up well for very long going forward.

You know who Trea Turner's late-twenties offensive stats remind me of? Ian Kinsler.

Age 25-29
TT: .301/.357/.486, .342 BABIP, 7.5 BB%, 17.9 K%, 185 ISO, 149 SB, .360 wOBA
IK: .273/.357/.471, .279 BABIP, 10.5 BB%, 11.9 K%, 197 ISO, 125 SB, .361 wOBA

Besides the fact that Turner has played for some higher-profile teams, there's not a ton of difference here that can't be explained by the BABIP. Unsurprisingly, Turner leads the majors in infield hits the last two years (68). I really don't think the team bets nine figures that will continue.

Let's be conservative and say Turner gets a 7-year deal. Kinsler put up a 103 wRC+ over his age 30-36 seasons. Here are their respective wRC+ trajectories since age 25:

IK from age 25 on: 108, 133, 105, 114, 123 | from age 30 on: 100, 104, 103, 110, 124, 92, 86
TT from age 25 on: 105, 118, 159*, 142, 128 | ?

Kinsler was still plenty valuable as he aged, but because of his defense. He was putting up superlative defensive ratings at 2B as late as 2018, when he put up a +10 DRS. Trea Turner doesn't have that defensive profile. He rates an average 2B/SS in his age-29 season, with a below-average throwing arm (83.7 mph).

 

[gammoseditor]

I doubt Judge is realistic, but I’d love for them to take a long look at Turner.

I’m actually surprised there isn’t more interest in Judge. OF if both an immediate need and a long term need. He’s been better than all of the SS options. It seems like the money is comparable. Whatever percentage chance the market gives the Sox of signing Judge I’d take.

 

[JM3]

I’m actually surprised there isn’t more interest in Judge. OF if both an immediate need and a long term need. He’s been better than all of the SS options. It seems like the money is comparable. Whatever percentage chance the market gives the Sox of signing Judge I’d take.

From SI.com...

Logically, the Yankees are the favorite to retain their star slugger, with -165 odds on DraftKings Sportbook.

Right behind them are the San Francisco Giants (+300) -- Judge was born less than two hours away from Oracle Park and the Giants have been adamant that no free agent is out of their price range. Then comes the Los Angeles Dodgers (+450), New York Mets (+1000), and Red Sox (+1600).

The rest of the teams have odds higher than +2000, and can be fairly confidently assumed to be out of the running at this juncture.

https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/news/odds-red-sox-yankees-among-five-teams-set-to-make-serious-run-for-aaron-judge

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I think there’s a lot of interest in Judge, it just seems highly unlikely that the Red Sox will outbid the Yankees for a player NY wants to retain.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

Does JD sign 2/$24?

 

[Chainsaw318]

If Cody Bellinger is on the trade block or possibly gets non-tendered, can we make a case that the Red Sox should be in on him?

The past 2 years have been statistically bad, but you can argue he would be a plus center or right field defender, and even his down power and production would have been better than most the Red Sox got from their OF last year. He hit 19 HRs and 27 Doubles. Verdugo, the best 2022 Red Sox outfielder, led the way with 11 homers and 30-something doubles.

If you trade for him, you ensure he’s on your roster at and Arb3 number and you aren’t committed further. If he’s non-tendered, it’s harder.

 

[moondog80]

If Cody Bellinger is on the trade block or possibly gets non-tendered, can we make a case that the Red Sox should be in on him?

The past 2 years have been statistically bad, but you can argue he would be a plus center or right field defender, and even his down power and production would have been better than most the Red Sox got from their OF last year. He hit 19 HRs and 27 Doubles. Verdugo, the best 2022 Red Sox outfielder, led the way with 11 homers and 30-something doubles.

If you trade for him, you ensure he’s on your roster at and Arb3 number and you aren’t committed further. If he’s non-tendered, it’s harder.

No. We can't promise him a clear path to playing time like some other clubs can, and that's what he needs to build his value back up.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

If Cody Bellinger is on the trade block or possibly gets non-tendered, can we make a case that the Red Sox should be in on him?

The past 2 years have been statistically bad, but you can argue he would be a plus center or right field defender, and even his down power and production would have been better than most the Red Sox got from their OF last year. He hit 19 HRs and 27 Doubles. Verdugo, the best 2022 Red Sox outfielder, led the way with 11 homers and 30-something doubles.

If you trade for him, you ensure he’s on your roster at and Arb3 number and you aren’t committed further. If he’s non-tendered, it’s harder.

It’s not an irrational thought, but there’s also a good chance that Bellinger will have us longing for the days of JBJ v. 2.0

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

I think there’s a lot of interest in Judge, it just seems highly unlikely that the Red Sox will outbid the Yankees for a player NY wants to retain.

Have we ever outbid them for a player they really wanted? We didn’t get El Duque or Mussina or Teixeira. Didn’t sign away Bernie.

On the other hand, we did “lose” to them on Damon and Ellsbury.

Judge does make sense for us. Solves multiple needs and doesn’t block anyone. But I remain skeptical that we’re truly in on him.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

No. We can't promise him a clear path to playing time like some other clubs can, and that's what he needs to build his value back up.

Why can't they promise a clear path? They've got a hole in RF he could ably fill as he's a very good defensive outfielder. He sported a .255 BABIP last year which suggests he could improve offensively simply with a bit better luck. And that luck could be improved just by the shift bans going into effect.

I'm not saying they should go all out to get him, but he strikes me as a reasonable candidate for a bounce-back and he could be a good fit as a buy low type.

 

[moondog80]

Why can't they promise a clear path? They've got a hole in RF he could ably fill as he's a very good defensive outfielder. He sported a .255 BABIP last year which suggests he could improve offensively simply with a bit better luck. And that luck could be improved just by the shift bans going into effect.

I'm not saying they should go all out to get him, but he strikes me as a reasonable candidate for a bounce-back and he could be a good fit as a buy low type.

If he's hitting .200 after 75 PA, he's going to get more time to figure it out in Pittsburgh or Oakland than he would in Boston.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

If he's hitting .200 after 75 PA, he's going to get more time to figure it out in Pittsburgh or Oakland than he would in Boston.

The team that gave JBJ and Franchy Cordero nearly 300 PA each last season is going to pull the plug on Bellinger after 75? I doubt that.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

If he's hitting .200 after 75 PA, he's going to get more time to figure it out in Pittsburgh or Oakland than he would in Boston.

Theoretically, maybe? But Bloom and Cora have certainly given struggling players tons of rope the last few years.

 

[moondog80]

The team that gave JBJ and Franchy Cordero nearly 300 PA each last season is going to pull the plug on Bellinger after 75? I doubt that.

I don't know if 75 is the magic number. But yes, I think his leash will be shorter in Boston than it would be in other places.