Let's say BB stays on until he retires. What does that mean for the franchise?

[SMU_Sox]

Just went around him.

Thank you. I just remembered my live reaction was:



So obviously saying that can't have him 1:1 on a guy on obvious passing downs is a bit hyperbole/game-threading kind of a reaction but at the same time when they played vs HOU they gave him a ton of help there. Cajuste was benched shortly after if not immediately after.

With Bill I wonder a lot about the OL this season. I think if Bill benches Wynn for Herron and finally just lets Onwenu play RT that shows me he still has some edge to him. I know Wynn is a sunk cost at this point but if he can't handle OT for whatever reason until he starts showing he can he has to ride the pine. Or maybe you move him to LG instead of Ferentz. Not sure. Shuffling your OL around isn't ideal but neither is having gaping holes anywhere and if I had to pick one I'd rather shuffle.

If they get Mason back and they go Herron - Karras - Andrews - Mason - Onwenu next week (or Ferentz on that left side and Karras at RG if Mason isn't back) it will make me feel like the coaching staff isn't completely asleep at the wheel. Herron has been a better LT than Wynn this year. Herron struggled at RT but... look this isn't Madden/a-video-game and Herron hasn't played RT before so it isn't just a switch 'em up and they go from a 85 rating to an 83 or something (I honestly have no idea how Madden works aside from it is a football video game and they have ratings from 1-100). Sometimes guys take an entire season adjusting to playing the other side of the line especially if they didn't play it in college either.

I think if we see them start to gravitate towards more spread 'em out for horizontal breaks, run 11 damn the expensive TEs, and use the young RBs more in the passing game like they did yesterday they will start to be able to have an identity of what they are good at. The issue is they spent so much money trying to be good at different things. But if we're talking about good coaching, well good coaches rolls with the punches.

I've been down on this team for a while but I think the OL is about to get settled, Meyers/Bourne are solid, and the identity on offense will hopefully take shape.

I still think punting there after the pass pro had settled down and with the defense gassed makes me question if Bill can go back to his 2001-2010 form with aggression vs his 2011-2020 where he coaches scared. The drive before the half was another one of those moments where you would expect the opposite from the guy who coined the term "middle 8" (I think he did anyway). Plus Mac and the offense all year have had some decent up-tempo 2 minute drill work. You'd think... and yet...

 

[Ale Xander]

I used to think BB just was a bad early round drafter, especially in the speed positions (CB/WR), maybe an ego thing trying impress that he knows better than pundits like Kiper and mcShay, but now I think he lost his fastball in the entire GM spectrum, after that mismanagement of SG and the Agholor signing. He's been a damned good UDFA and late round guy though (prior to this year).

I think he's still one of the best, if not the best, coaches in the league. Minor issues in lack of aggression on 4th down like yesterday and in trusting coordinators too much and I guess nepotism.

Fake Edit: Damn, 5 pages already. You guys are fast.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

In terms of talent, what players are opposing coaching staffs worried about in their game plan? Judon I'll give you. Who else? Harris/Stevenson look above average at RB, Hunter Henry has made some nice plays. Barmore looks like he has some ability and has to be accounted for. Who else do opposing coaches have to worry about? I agree they have a bunch of rotational level guys who are adequate for their position, but they lack difference makers on both sides of the ball.

Jackson.

The entire offense would be different, Cam would run it a lot more, the line would likely look different running option looks. It's impossible to say, that's the point, they are totally different QB types, so you run different offense. You also get significantly different defensive looks. Mac is getting blitzed a lot on early downs, Cam would likely be less so because teams like to use a spy on him to prevent edge rushes.

It is hard for me to believe that the Pats' line would be doing much better with Cam because 1) their best lineman from a year ago is gone, 2) Wynn in particularl has looked like a different and worse guy, and 3) it is not as if this line has been able to run block consistently.

Asiasi has been a healthy scratch. Look, I am just speculating here but... could they activate him and give him a shot as their in-line guy?

I'm guessing that Asiasi has been bad in practice, because this is too obvious to not do if it was likely to work.

 

[BigJimEd]

I used to think BB just was a bad early round drafter, especially in the speed positions (CB/WR), maybe an ego thing trying impress that he knows better than pundits like Kiper and mcShay

Yes, I'm sure Belichick went into drafts thinking how he could show up Kiper and McShay. Is there any evidence to suggest this????

 

[Captaincoop]

The team will be better in November and December than it is right now. It may be too late to make the playoffs, but I'm willing to bet we feel better about 2022 in two months than we do right now.

I have all the patience in the world for Bill Belichick. He won 6 Super Bowls, tried one last run with Brady in 2019, and now has had like 20 games to rebuild from there. I can wait longer than that.

 

[Jinhocho]

This is a really great post. Just wanted to highlight it.

Agree and not just because I was cited. I really think we are viewing this wrong, partially because Brady leapt to a place tailor made for him to win and put up monster numbers. BB could have jumped anywhere he wanted and has never shown any indication of wanting to leave from what I can tell. If you forget Brady for a moment, what do we see each week:

A team who has a ton of new guys
A team which makes uncharacteristic mistakes for a BB team (see above)
A team with a really promising rookie QB. I was stunned they cut Newton, but Mac to me looks legit.
A team with some key players who are really underperforming (looking at you Hightower)
A team w a terrible OL (didnt see that coming but with Scar gone I guess we should have known)

I am not a moral victory guy. I was tremendously frustrated last night but man for a shit team as so many describe them they slogged it out with the cowboys all night, had a strong game and take the lead drive, and a I didnt hear no bell moment from Mac). Frustrating to be sure, but plenty of good things too. Back when I had season tickets, I came away from that Rams regular season game believing they would both make the playoffs and would be dangerous (they lost that game 24-17 at home to go to 5-5). I am not giving this game that kind of significance or the TB game, but man o man you can see some positives here. I do believe this team is going to finish above 500 and be setup nicely going forward.

Also, it was clear last night the gameplan on defense was to let them throw. I did not hear this remarked on in the broadcast. It was clear they went bend dont break as best they could and that the offensive game plan was based on the idea that they knew they need 28+ points to win. Ride or die with this team, but I dont think anyone is close to dying...

 

[ShaneTrot]

This play is very funny in both a sad and humorous way:
View: https://twitter.com/AndyJ0seph/status/1449874682182717443

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Bedard, in a radio spot, said that he had heard that the Pats coaches are terrified by how bad their offensive line is and that is driving some of the conservative play calling.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Agree and not just because I was cited. I really think we are viewing this wrong, partially because Brady leapt to a place tailor made for him to win and put up monster numbers. BB could have jumped anywhere he wanted and has never shown any indication of wanting to leave from what I can tell. If you forget Brady for a moment, what do we see each week:

A team who has a ton of new guys
A team which makes uncharacteristic mistakes for a BB team (see above)
A team with a really promising rookie QB. I was stunned they cut Newton, but Mac to me looks legit.
A team with some key players who are really underperforming (looking at you Hightower)
A team w a terrible OL (didnt see that coming but with Scar gone I guess we should have known)

I am not a moral victory guy. I was tremendously frustrated last night but man for a shit team as so many describe them they slogged it out with the cowboys all night, had a strong game and take the lead drive, and a I didnt hear no bell moment from Mac). Frustrating to be sure, but plenty of good things too. Back when I had season tickets, I came away from that Rams regular season game believing they would both make the playoffs and would be dangerous (they lost that game 24-17 at home to go to 5-5). I am not giving this game that kind of significance or the TB game, but man o man you can see some positives here. I do believe this team is going to finish above 500 and be setup nicely going forward.

Also, it was clear last night the gameplan on defense was to let them throw. I did not hear this remarked on in the broadcast. It was clear they went bend dont break as best they could and that the offensive game plan was based on the idea that they knew they need 28+ points to win. Ride or die with this team, but I dont think anyone is close to dying...

Curious about where you see the 7 wins they'd need to finish > .500 coming from, especially in a road heavy schedule?

NYJ
@ LAC
@ CAR
CLE
@ ATL
TEN
@ BUF
@ IND
BUF
JAX
@ MIA

 

[ShaneTrot]

Curious about where you see the 7 wins they'd need to finish > .500 coming from, especially in a road heavy schedule?

NYJ
@ LAC
@ CAR
CLE
@ ATL
TEN
@ BUF
@ IND
BUF
JAX
@ MIA

Well, they are undefeated on the road!

 

[Cellar-Door]

This play is very funny in both a sad and humorous way:
View: https://twitter.com/AndyJ0seph/status/1449874682182717443

Harry had no idea what the play was, then Mac panicked when the screen wasn't open. No clue what that throw was, guy is covered, there isn't any actual pressure. I can't imagine that play set up as only the one read of "if Jonnu doesn't have a cushion just throw it away"

 

[j44thor]

They have run that quick change punt play before. It's in their playbook, and it's on the players on the field to execute it. I still think the coaches messed up a bit, as it seemed more hurried than usual, and I still think the spot was egregiously wrong and worth challenging. But I don't expect Belichick to throw any specific players or coaches under the bus, no matter how bad the outcome was. He's never done that, and he's not going to start doing that now (nor do I think he should).

When was the last time that play worked? Seems like at least 3 or 4 seasons since that was at all effective. More than anything that play looks antiquated especially when your optimal result is the opponent burns a TO. Twice they have tried it and failed miserably this season. Maybe stop with the pseudo trick plays that have almost no tangible benefit and instead get the basics down. Bailey has been punting poorly this season even when you aren't rushing him.

 

[BaseballJones]

Curious about where you see the 7 wins they'd need to finish > .500 coming from, especially in a road heavy schedule?

NYJ
@ LAC
@ CAR
CLE
@ ATL
TEN
@ BUF
@ IND
BUF
JAX
@ MIA

Clearly they're going to need to upset some teams along the way. Let's say the wins are: NYJ, at Car, at Atl, at Ind, vs Jax, and at Mia. That's six. Obviously this team could lose all of those, but those have to be the ones you think they have a good chance of winning.

So then it's at LAC, vs Cle, vs Ten, at Buf, and vs Buf. Those are all going to be very tough games. Can then win one of them? Two of them? Hard to see it, but who knows.

BTW, I'm not at all convinced they're going to win the six I listed above. Just saying.

 

[j44thor]

Harry had no idea what the play was, then Mac panicked when the screen wasn't open. No clue what that throw was, guy is covered, there isn't any actual pressure. I can't imagine that play set up as only the one read of "if Jonnu doesn't have a cushion just throw it away"

He had to snap the ball to avoid an extremely costly DOG penalty and they were down to 1 TO due to earlier play calling issues so his primary read wasn't open and he had no idea where Harry was going to go because Harry didn't know where he was going. I think Mac made the best out of a shit sandwich on that play. Perhaps he should have taken the TO but it is defensible given that would have been there last TO of the game with way too much time left.

 

[Cellar-Door]

He had to snap the ball to avoid an extremely costly DOG penalty and they were down to 1 TO due to earlier play calling issues so his primary read wasn't open and he had no idea where Harry was going to go because Harry didn't know where he was going. I think Mac made the best out of a shit sandwich on that play. Perhaps he should have taken the TO but it is defensible given that would have been there last TO of the game with way too much time left.

yeah, that's what I mean about panicking, everything was going wrong so when he got off the snap and saw the first read was covered he just dumped it, which is better than forcing the throw. It's understandable for a rookie, but that's something he can learn, snap the ball, see what you have then get rid of it.

 

[tims4wins]

When was the last time that play worked? Seems like at least 3 or 4 seasons since that was at all effective. More than anything that play looks antiquated especially when your optimal result is the opponent burns a TO. Twice they have tried it and failed miserably this season. Maybe stop with the pseudo trick plays that have almost no tangible benefit and instead get the basics down. Bailey has been punting poorly this season even when you aren't rushing him.

Pretty sure they got a TO earlier this season. And I disagree with that being the optimal result. Optimal result is you catch them with wrong personnel and run a play for a first down.

That being said - those goals are well and good if it doesn’t affect the punt. If it compromises the punt even 1% then it makes little sense to me.

 

[Justthetippett]

I think punting in OT was the wrong decision and the answer in the GHS this AM shows it was for the wrong reasons (i.e. playing not to lose). But if I had to guess, BB was expecting a better kick, pin DAL inside the 10 and hope for either a TO or some bad offensive plays affected by the crowd with DAL backed up. The decision was wrong but only looks worse because of the weak punt. Once DAL got it at the 20, the result seemed inevitable.

 

[Rico Guapo]

yeah, that's what I mean about panicking, everything was going wrong so when he got off the snap and saw the first read was covered he just dumped it, which is better than forcing the throw. It's understandable for a rookie, but that's something he can learn, snap the ball, see what you have then get rid of it.

He doesn't have time to "see what you have" when players aren't lined up correctly because the offensive line is garbage.

 

[bunchabums]

For a team who converted more than a few third and 20 plus yard plays, it seems odd to give them the ball back even inside the 20.

 

[Silverdude2167]

Curious about where you see the 7 wins they'd need to finish > .500 coming from, especially in a road heavy schedule?

NYJ
@ LAC
@ CAR
CLE
@ ATL
TEN
@ BUF
@ IND
BUF
JAX
@ MIA

Beyond Miami they have lost to TB, Dallas and NO. Other than the Bills which teams on that list are as good as those three (NO being the weakest).

Everyone is right to be down on this team, but they were close to two of the best teams in the league. It's not crazy to think that maybe they are better than most of the teams on that list.

 

[Cellar-Door]

He doesn't have time to "see what you have" when players aren't lined up correctly because the offensive line is garbage.

I mean, he did on that play. Part of the growth of an NFL QB is identifying when there is pressure and when there isn't. If you start getting jumpy because you assume pressure will come you miss out on a lot of opportunities. The line hasn't been great (though they've struggled a lot more with blitzes than base rush), but that's life in the NFL, what you want from your QB is to identify the lack of pressure, take a look then if nothing is open throw it away. Unless it was a max blitz there isn't really a reason to make a 1 second throw-away.

 

[Rico Guapo]

I mean, he did on that play. Part of the growth of an NFL QB is identifying when there is pressure and when there isn't. If you start getting jumpy because you assume pressure will come you miss out on a lot of opportunities. The line hasn't been great (though they've struggled a lot more with blitzes than base rush), but that's life in the NFL, what you want from your QB is to identify the lack of pressure, take a look then if nothing is open throw it away. Unless it was a max blitz there isn't really a reason to make a 1 second throw-away.

ok elias.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Beyond Miami they have lost to TB, Dallas and NO. Other than the Bills which teams on that list are as good as those three (NO being the weakest).

Everyone is right to be down on this team, but they were close to two of the best teams in the league. It's not crazy to think that maybe they are better than most of the teams on that list.

I mean, I’m not ruling it out or anything but it just seems unlikely, especially given how poor the OL is, how slow the LBs, and how cooked some of our key vets look. I don’t see many automatic losses or automatic wins given how mediocre this team is so we’ll just have to see. This is a team that had to scrap and claw to beat Houston so close losses to good Cowboys and Bucs teams don’t offer me much comfort.

 

[Jimbodandy]

ok elias.

Not a mod, but this is a good way to get shown the door.

Take apart CDs post, if you have something to say.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Interesting from Ben Baldwin;
View: https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/1450102195899322371


The win probabilities had a heavy split on the punt call. ESPN's said punting was the higher win probability play, DeckPrism had going for it.

 

[tims4wins]

To answer the OP, I have no idea. That said, it is hard to imagine his coordinators / position coaches saying things like this 3-5 years ago.

This was Jerod Mayo before the Dallas game. Quite frankly it sounds like an optimistic SoSH post. Which is fine for SoSH. But feels like not enough blame acceptance from a coach:

“Really we’re still a work in progress,” he explained. “We have a lot of new guys. I would say if you look at our team historically very little turnover. We have a bunch of new guys and they are all good players. But we still trying to figure each other out.

"There have been stretches this year we’ve played I would say pretty decent football, especially on the defensive side of the ball. If you look at it statistically I’m sure we rank somewhere near the top in a bunch of categories. But you’re right, we definitely have a long way to go. We have to get better. And we always talk about, September you try to figure yourself out. Even early October you are trying to figure yourself out. Then November, hopefully, November, December, January you’re playing your best football. And by no means do I think we’re playing our best football as a team. We talk about complementary football. And I don’t think we’re playing our best defensively. I think the rest of the guys understand that and know we have a long way to go and a lot of growth and our ceiling is very high.”

Mayo said the urgency is most definitely there.

“We’re barely into October, I guess midway into October at this point,” he said. “But I do think we’ll be better. I think we’re getting better. I think the guys are really starting to come together as far as off the field, studying film, and also just playing with one another. And we’ve had some guys go in and out as well. And even if you look at this past game, not trying to look in the past, there were some plays out there which we should have been off the field. It kind of extended drives. If you take away two drives from last game and we’re not even having this conversation. But we are. And we’re here today.



Here is McCourty. Again this is excuse making (even though he’s not wrong) that we simply didn’t used to see. Of course, much of that had to do with going to the AFCCG every year. But it doesn’t rub me the right way in terms of players taking responsibility for their performance. I love DMC. A Patriot Hall of Famer on the field and off. Don’t like this quote.


"We’re banged up, it’s tough," McCourty said. "You would want more DBs in but you guys could see, it was tough. [Jonathan] Jones was in and out, [Adrian Phillips] went down for a second, [Justin Bethel] went down for a second, it was just tough. (The third-and-25 play) we try to practice just wasn’t executed well enough. That play was tough though."

 

[cshea]

I think punting in OT was the wrong decision and the answer in the GHS this AM shows it was for the wrong reasons (i.e. playing not to lose). But if I had to guess, BB was expecting a better kick, pin DAL inside the 10 and hope for either a TO or some bad offensive plays affected by the crowd with DAL backed up. The decision was wrong but only looks worse because of the weak punt. Once DAL got it at the 20, the result seemed inevitable.

Even if he expected a better punt and field position, there was no evidence to indicate the Patriots defense would be able to stop Dallas before they got into FG range. The Patriots defense gave up 487 yards in regulation. Dallas had 10 drives in regulation 8 of which crossed the New England 40. Dallas went at least 40 yards on 7 of 10 possessions. The only Dallas drives that traveled less yards were the opening drive of the game that went 22 and the Patriots got the 4th down stop, the fumble at the goaline after Dallas took over on the NE 17, and the 3 and out at the beginning of the 3rd quarter. The 3 and out was the clear outlier. The Patriots did a decent job of bending and not breaking by forcing 3 field goal attempts in regulation plus the 2 red zone turnovers, but Dallas lived around the Patriots red zone all day. I get he doesn't trust the offense and/or is trying to protect Mac, but that was an inexcusable decision.

He seems to trust the defense more than the offense, which I can kind of understand given the OL issues and a rookie QB, but at some point I think he has to trust the offense to convert in a big spot. I think he should've gone for it against Tampa instead of the long FG, and I think they should've gone for it yesterday in OT. High leverage spots, but the way the league is today I think you've got to win on offense.

I do think kneeling before the half was a little more defensible, though I would've liked to see them take a shot or two before packing it in. Just because they were getting the ball to start the 3rd quarter doesn't mean they should've conceded the possession.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Interesting from Ben Baldwin;
View: https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/1450102195899322371


The win probabilities had a heavy split on the punt call. ESPN's said punting was the higher win probability play, DeckPrism had going for it.

This is just like the 56yd field goal conversation, except that hopefully it doesn't last a whole fucking week.

Do other fanbases spend a week questioning coaching decisions that analytics say are basically coin flips?

 

[reggiecleveland]

the only concern I see is how long can Bill do it? I just got a call back to some serious coaching, and at age 56 I am not sure I can or want to do it.
If Bill has three more years, then I expect he can build a winner around Mack.

 

[Cellar-Door]

the only concern I see is how long can Bill do it? I just got a call back to some serious coaching, and at age 56 I am not sure I can or want to do it.
If Bill has three more years, then I expect he can build a winner around Mack.

I think this is even more a question given Bill's dual roles he's really doing two jobs that in other organizations have 2 guys working long hours separately. If he were just the coach I'd be more confident. I think he's a bit conservative in-game, but still an excellent coach. I'm less convinced about this GM role, but I can't imagine he'd hand that over, so you're kind stuck with him and have to hope he bounces back on the GM side.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I think this is even more a question given Bill's dual roles he's really doing two jobs that in other organizations have 2 guys working long hours separately. If he were just the coach I'd be more confident. I think he's a bit conservative in-game, but still an excellent coach. I'm less convinced about this GM role, but I can't imagine he'd hand that over, so you're kind stuck with him and have to hope he bounces back on the GM side.

The scenario that keeps me up nights is an end-of-career Tom Landry, which is to be avoided at all costs. At some point some very difficult decisions will need to be made about when is the proper time to change coaching staffs (staves?).

 

[Rico Guapo]

Not a mod, but this is a good way to get shown the door.

Take apart CDs post, if you have something to say.

You try having a discussion on QB play with someone who consistently ignores the impact a terrible OL is having on said QB.

 

[JokersWildJIMED]

The bottom line is that the league (and the teams that the Pats play) are essentially treating most of the situations that are being discussed as 4 down territory, and analytics back it up. Belichick is not and it has handicapped and cost the team games.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

The bottom line is that the league (and the teams that the Pats play) are essentially treating most of the situations that are being discussed as 4 down territory, and analytics back it up. Belichick is not and it has handicapped and cost the team games.

FO had this yesterday:

View: https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/1449858359646113800?s=20


View: https://twitter.com/FO_ASchatz/status/1449858742560960513?s=20

 

[Cellar-Door]

You try having a discussion on QB play with someone who consistently ignores the impact a terrible OL is having on said QB.

I'm not ignoring it, I'm saying you can't treat every snap like your O-line will suck and not read the defense post-snap. Though also... they're not THAT bad, they're league averagish by most measures at pass blocking, while struggling with the blitz, it's a rough year for O-lines in general this year.

Identifying and handling pressure is an important thing for an NFL QB to learn. Mac is a rookie, so he gets some breaks, but at the same time, the assumption that he can't take any criticism for mis-identifying the amount of pressure and wasting snaps is silly. It's something he'll need to improve. I'm pointing it out because it's something he can improve. I would guess when that play comes up in film session this week, after Harry gets ripped a new one, Josh will go over with Mac where he could have taken a beat, settled then made a decision. He got himself moving too fast and didn't process the play.

You can't just write off every negative decision or play as "oh the O-line is bad, so it's not his fault", sometimes it's the line's fault, sometimes he made a poor decision, NFL QB play is all about parsing these things. I think Mac has a lot of potential, I also think it's valuable to identify plays where he makes mistakes, and identify them as areas he can improve.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Abstracting away from specific decisions yesterday and toward those FO stats posted by SJH, being league average in 4th ground aggressiveness when your offense is worse than your defense (as has largely been the case from 2019-2021) doesn't seem like a massive problem to me. I would rather he be a bit more aggressive but there doesn't seem to be much of a case that the league is leaving him behind or that 4th down timidity has turned into some kind of massive Achilles heel.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

The entire point of those 4th down stats is that the league has left him behind in that regard since 2012. And now he doesn’t have Brady to paper over the extreme lack of aggressiveness.

For years the general plan was “play our game and let the other team fuck up.” But now the Patriots are the other team that’s fucking up. The passivity must stop.

 

[Cellar-Door]

The entire point of those 4th down stats is that the league has left him behind in that regard since 2012. And now he doesn’t have Brady to paper over the extreme lack of aggressiveness.

For years the general plan was “play our game and let the other team fuck up.” But now the Patriots are the other team that’s fucking up. The passivity must stop.

That's not really what it shows. It's not the league leaving him behind or an "extreme" lack of aggressiveness. It's the league catching up and Bill going from one of the most aggressive coaches to just around average. Now, I agree, the Patriots should be more aggressive given the defense/offense split, and also.. aggressiveness is usually rewarded in the NFL, but Bill isn't a dinosaur compared to the league, he's just middle of the pack.

 

[JokersWildJIMED]

The stats show that he went to the middle of the pack. They do not show 2021, where in 5 out of 6 games they did not even attempt a 4th down conversion, which is remarkable. The only game they attempted was the NO disaster.

 

[Zincman]

The definitive study I've seen ("Loser's Curse" by Cade Massey and Richard Thaler) suggests that the difference in contract amount as you move through the first round is actually larger than the difference in expected production / talent. So I don't really buy that as an excuse. They've missed on picks, it's hard. They don't have Tom Brady anymore. There are a lot of GMs from the Belichick tree looking for similar players and it's been harder to chase down bargains. They like to "zig" when the league "zags" and the current "zig" isn't working too well. And Bill's in-game decision-making has gotten timid to the point of cowardice.

Good thinking and then you lose me with the word "cowardice". You are one of the great posters on this board and that kind of hyperbole is beneath you. BB is a lot of things but coward isn't one of them

 

[cornwalls@6]

I don't think BB has lost anything. Their 20 year run of dominance was insane, unprecedented, and never to be repeated. A period of re-building, and sub-par on field performance was inevitable. It was always waiting at the end of this. Nobody could sustain all the things that went right, many of them very much in the category of luck(starting with drafting the greatest player in league history in the 6th round), indefinitely. He still seems very much engaged with the job, and his game-plans seem sound. I have also been puzzled/exasperated at times by the conservatism this year, but I also remind myself that he's trying to develop a rookie QB, behind a banged-up OL, and keep him upright all year. His record as a GM is fair game to criticize, but even there I think he's been better than is being portrayed by some. Picking in the last slot of every round, for years on end, catches up. And he has had two 1st round picks absurdly, unjustifiably stripped by the league. I don't think he walks on water, it's perfectly fair and reasonable to question individual decisions. I do as well. But on a macro-level, there's still nobody else I would rather have coaching, and running the football operation of the Patriots.

 

[bernardsamuel]

I'd like to offer some commentary "from the other side of the story," i.e. I am someone who is in the trajectory of losing his fastball at age 74, which is nearly nine years into my retirement. First, there is nothing intrinsically wrong about losing mental acuity, but there is a responsibility that one must assume, namely to ensure that any damage to others will be minimized, or even fully offset if you can do it. I was fortunate in my career, as I always had surrounded myself with talent different from and greater than my own, so it worked out well that the more I trusted the people around me, the better our whole organization became. In the case at hand of our beloved Head Coach, it is harder to make the case that his Assistants have been better (retired Coach Scar may be the most shining example of a "better" Assistant, but the track record of Belichick's "tree" has not been impressive). It's a great risk to have Steve B. in his post, as the chances of a son correcting his father are less than a non-family member being able to fix an issue.

Second, the hardest moments of the "losing fastball syndrome" occur when you're still sharp enough to know that it's happening, and others haven't yet caught on or are just starting to catch on. In my own case, I have always had cheerful memories of the collie next door when I was 14-16 years old; I never had a pet-anything and this dog was such a mood-lifter. But this past weekend, I agonized for most of the weekend trying to remember the dog's name until "Cindy" finally jumped into my head from out of nowhere last night. I see how important/central it is to Belichick to be able to "go down memory lane" on arcane topics such as the evolution of long-snappers. I suspect that he may be trying to prove to himself that he's still "with it." Also, a tried and true way to throw people off the trail that you're losing your fastball is to be in control of what will be the subject matter of the conversation.

Third, there is a balance between remembering the lessons of history (as "there is nothing new under the sun," so new problems are often old problems wearing new clothing) and not being able "to go with the times." It may very well be true that what was a mistake earlier (going for it on fourth and two, with the pass to Faulk not getting the needing yardage) is today's correct call (the contemporary analytics smile on going for it on short fourth-down yardage, especially when your defense is gassed). Still, it is just too easy to conflate bad decisions with bad outcomes. I'm blessed that in my own life the worst decision (based upon a weighted-criteria approach) which was to get married at age 21 turned out to give me the best outcome 52 years later (being in the same marriage, with two kids and their kids having all turned out to be wonderful and still connected with me). Perhaps professional athletes are different now than when Belichick learned the trade under Parcells, and it would have been better to let up on the "Johnny from Foxboro High" harangue upon Brady after he had won whatever number of Super Bowls.

Finally, success can each go a long way towards buying time. The Patriots so far this season remind me of one of my favorite Milton Berle lines ("I have sex almost every day - I almost have sex on Monday, I almost have sex on Tuesday, etc."). Indeed the Patriots have won almost every game so far this season. I suspect that in the next few weeks, perhaps stirred most by the return of Trent Brown if/when it happens, will start to have more "moral loss" (I think the terminology was introduced upthread) moments, and we'll even be tempted to believe that the genius mind has found its way home to our Coach.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I'd like to offer some commentary "from the other side of the story," i.e. I am someone who is in the trajectory of losing his fastball at age 74, which is nearly nine years into my retirement. First, there is nothing intrinsically wrong about losing mental acuity, but there is a responsibility that one must assume, namely to ensure that any damage to others will be minimized, or even fully offset if you can do it. I was fortunate in my career, as I always had surrounded myself with talent different from and greater than my own, so it worked out well that the more I trusted the people around me, the better our whole organization became. In the case at hand of our beloved Head Coach, it is harder to make the case that his Assistants have been better (retired Coach Scar may be the most shining example of a "better" Assistant, but the track record of Belichick's "tree" has not been impressive). It's a great risk to have Steve B. in his post, as the chances of a son correcting his father are less than a non-family member being able to fix an issue.

Second, the hardest moments of the "losing fastball syndrome" occur when you're still sharp enough to know that it's happening, and others haven't yet caught on or are just starting to catch on. In my own case, I have always had cheerful memories of the collie next door when I was 14-16 years old; I never had a pet-anything and this dog was such a mood-lifter. But this past weekend, I agonized for most of the weekend trying to remember the dog's name until "Cindy" finally jumped into my head from out of nowhere last night. I see how important/central it is to Belichick to be able to "go down memory lane" on arcane topics such as the evolution of long-snappers. I suspect that he may be trying to prove to himself that he's still "with it." Also, a tried and true way to throw people off the trail that you're losing your fastball is to be in control of what will be the subject matter of the conversation.

Third, there is a balance between remembering the lessons of history (as "there is nothing new under the sun," so new problems are often old problems wearing new clothing) and not being able "to go with the times." It may very well be true that what was a mistake earlier (going for it on fourth and two, with the pass to Faulk not getting the needing yardage) is today's correct call (the contemporary analytics smile on going for it on short fourth-down yardage, especially when your defense is gassed). Still, it is just too easy to conflate bad decisions with bad outcomes. I'm blessed that in my own life the worst decision (based upon a weighted-criteria approach) which was to get married at age 21 turned out to give me the best outcome 52 years later (being in the same marriage, with two kids and their kids having all turned out to be wonderful and still connected with me). Perhaps professional athletes are different now than when Belichick learned the trade under Parcells, and it would have been better to let up on the "Johnny from Foxboro High" harangue upon Brady after he had won whatever number of Super Bowls.

Finally, success can each go a long way towards buying time. The Patriots so far this season remind me of one of my favorite Milton Berle lines ("I have sex almost every day - I almost have sex on Monday, I almost have sex on Tuesday, etc."). Indeed the Patriots have won almost every game so far this season. I suspect that in the next few weeks, perhaps stirred most by the return of Trent Brown if/when it happens, will start to have more "moral loss" (I think the terminology was introduced upthread) moments, and we'll even be tempted to believe that the genius mind has found its way home to our Coach.

Great post bernardsamuel! A lot of wisdom here, and not just about Bill Belichick.

 

[patinorange]

I'd like to offer some commentary "from the other side of the story," i.e. I am someone who is in the trajectory of losing his fastball at age 74, which is nearly nine years into my retirement. First, there is nothing intrinsically wrong about losing mental acuity, but there is a responsibility that one must assume, namely to ensure that any damage to others will be minimized, or even fully offset if you can do it. I was fortunate in my career, as I always had surrounded myself with talent different from and greater than my own, so it worked out well that the more I trusted the people around me, the better our whole organization became. In the case at hand of our beloved Head Coach, it is harder to make the case that his Assistants have been better (retired Coach Scar may be the most shining example of a "better" Assistant, but the track record of Belichick's "tree" has not been impressive). It's a great risk to have Steve B. in his post, as the chances of a son correcting his father are less than a non-family member being able to fix an issue.

Second, the hardest moments of the "losing fastball syndrome" occur when you're still sharp enough to know that it's happening, and others haven't yet caught on or are just starting to catch on. In my own case, I have always had cheerful memories of the collie next door when I was 14-16 years old; I never had a pet-anything and this dog was such a mood-lifter. But this past weekend, I agonized for most of the weekend trying to remember the dog's name until "Cindy" finally jumped into my head from out of nowhere last night. I see how important/central it is to Belichick to be able to "go down memory lane" on arcane topics such as the evolution of long-snappers. I suspect that he may be trying to prove to himself that he's still "with it." Also, a tried and true way to throw people off the trail that you're losing your fastball is to be in control of what will be the subject matter of the conversation.

Third, there is a balance between remembering the lessons of history (as "there is nothing new under the sun," so new problems are often old problems wearing new clothing) and not being able "to go with the times." It may very well be true that what was a mistake earlier (going for it on fourth and two, with the pass to Faulk not getting the needing yardage) is today's correct call (the contemporary analytics smile on going for it on short fourth-down yardage, especially when your defense is gassed). Still, it is just too easy to conflate bad decisions with bad outcomes. I'm blessed that in my own life the worst decision (based upon a weighted-criteria approach) which was to get married at age 21 turned out to give me the best outcome 52 years later (being in the same marriage, with two kids and their kids having all turned out to be wonderful and still connected with me). Perhaps professional athletes are different now than when Belichick learned the trade under Parcells, and it would have been better to let up on the "Johnny from Foxboro High" harangue upon Brady after he had won whatever number of Super Bowls.

Finally, success can each go a long way towards buying time. The Patriots so far this season remind me of one of my favorite Milton Berle lines ("I have sex almost every day - I almost have sex on Monday, I almost have sex on Tuesday, etc."). Indeed the Patriots have won almost every game so far this season. I suspect that in the next few weeks, perhaps stirred most by the return of Trent Brown if/when it happens, will start to have more "moral loss" (I think the terminology was introduced upthread) moments, and we'll even be tempted to believe that the genius mind has found its way home to our Coach.

Good stuff.
Thanks from a recently retired guy.

 

[RIrooter09]

Curious about where you see the 7 wins they'd need to finish > .500 coming from, especially in a road heavy schedule?

NYJ- W
@ LAC- L
@ CAR- L
CLE- L
@ ATL- L
TEN- W
@ BUF- L
@ IND- L
BUF- L
JAX- W
@ MIA- W

My picks above. I think we finish 6-11.

 

[bakahump]

This play is very funny in both a sad and humorous way:
View: https://twitter.com/AndyJ0seph/status/1449874682182717443

I imagine a "WTF Dude" as Harry Runs by.

And you know I take some solace from that. Not for Harry.....he sucks. But for Mac who recognized that Harry was in the wrong place shifted the formation (or maybe that was Bourne or whoever the bottom WR was) and then Motioning Harry out to where he would at least be eligble. And yea he also probably told him the route as he went by (though I want a "wtf Dude"). Finally he got the play off without a penalty. No gain is better then minus yards. It was a "heady play" by a rookie and showed some command of the offense. Not bad for game 5.

 

[jsinger121]

My picks above. I think we finish 6-11.

It wouldn’t shock me to see them lose one of Tennessee or Miami. They have consistently sucked playing down in Miami. I think 5-12 is also in play as well. Sign me up for a top 10 pick at this point because I would rather have that than go 7-10 or 8-9 and be stuck in mediocrity with a mid first round pick.

 

[RIrooter09]

It wouldn’t shock me to see them lose one of Tennessee or Miami. They have consistently sucked playing down in Miami.

Yeah that Miami game is a pick em for me, but I gave the good guys an extra win.

 

[jsinger121]

Yeah that Miami game is a pick em for me, but I gave the good guys an extra win.

I just have a hard time seeing this team winning more than 5-6 games with the lack of high end talented playmakers missing from this roster.

 

[RIrooter09]

I just have a hard time seeing this team winning more than 5-6 games with the lack of high end talented playmakers missing from this roster.

Agreed, 5-7 wins is their ceiling I think.