Let's say BB stays on until he retires. What does that mean for the franchise?

Petagine in a Bottle

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Is it obvious that they are rebuilding, though? It sort of seemed like the spending spree was partially a reaction to the Bucs winning and that the Pats were reloading to win right away. Then again, they are starting a rookie QB. But in the off-season, I don’t recall a lot of talk about a multi year

They are relatively unique in that they are a team that paid a lot of money for a lot of free agents and aren’t a terribly young team, especially defensively, yet are starting a rookie QB. Most other teams starting rookie QB’s are terrible and don’t fancy themselves contenders.

If they truly are rebuilding, at what point does it stop making sense giving so much playing time to guys like Hightower, DMC, Van Noy, etc?
 

MuppetAsteriskTalk

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If the Pats considered this a rebuilding year, I sure wish they would have invested more on the lines, and also wish they would have deferred some spending until they had a better read on player development from recent drafts. It makes no sense to spend everything this past offseason if they thought this was a rebuilding year. It seems they were building to win now.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Being in games not losing them is a criticism of the coaching staff, not a credit. They didn’t spend all that money this offseason to come away with moral victories.

The strategic and in-game decisions have been horrible.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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The Pats are rebuilding in the sense that they don’t have the talent to compete and will need a year or three of good drafting and smart personnel decisions to get there.

But they’re never going to intentionally tank games and they’re always going to spend to the cap (roughly) and try to compete. Spending in the off-season and playing guys like High isn’t a win-now strategy, it’s a trying to compete as much as you can with the talent you have strategy.
 

jsinger121

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I will say this. Its going to take multiple drafts for this team to get back to Super Bowl contention. The first Super Bowl the nucleus was in place with mostly Parcells guys with a few Pete Carroll holdovers. They got Brady in 2000 which eventually changed everything but in 2001 you draft Seymour and Light who were cornerstone players on 3 title teams. In 2002 you draft Graham, Branch, Jarvis Green and hit on David Givens in the 7th. That is two starting receivers and a serviceable TE along with a rotational DL. In 2003 they got Ty Warren, Eugene Wilson, Asante Samuel and Dan Koppen in rounds 1,2,4 and 5. In 04 Vince Wilfork fell into their lap while Ben Watson they got but was hurt the title year. In 05 they got Mankins, Hobbs, Kaczur, Sanders and Cassel but from 06-09 they didn't draft well and it showed. Brady truly covered a ton of bad drafting up during that phase. But it took from the 10-13 drafts to really build the core for the next run. McCourty, Gronk and yes the other TE who won't be named were drafted in 10. In 11 they got Solder, Vereen, Cannon. 12 and 13 drafts got some real impact players with Hightower, Jones, Collins, Ryan and Harmon. That is essentially your core for the second run. The 17, 18 and 19 drafts have barely shown to be much outside of Harris, Duggar, punter Jake Bailey and maybe Onwenu.

They have so many holes across the board from OL, to LB to lack of player makers on the DL to an aging defensive backfield and WR that can actually get downfield with speed that it will take multiple drafts and hits to fill these needs.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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BB clearly has zero confidence in his offense in these kind of “gotta have it” situations where the defense will throw the kitchen sink at our rookie QB, our porous line, and a WR/TE group mainly made of new guys. Look at what a low percentage play we ended up being forced into on the 3rd and 3 in OT. This isn’t TB12 throwing to Jules, Gronk, and James White (whose absence really hurts in these spots).

I’d like him to be more aggressive but it’s not like he’s a moron and he understands what’s happening with the offense a lot better than anybody sitting at home shouting at the TV.
 
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j-man

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bill is still the best coach but he misclaued when brady would fall off that his only mistake u shouild had traded brady after 2017 to SF or LA Rams rams wouild had maybe gived 2 ones and donald Donald wouild had made your DL beastly
 

BaseballJones

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The Pats are rebuilding in the sense that they don’t have the talent to compete and will need a year or three of good drafting and smart personnel decisions to get there.

But they’re never going to intentionally tank games and they’re always going to spend to the cap (roughly) and try to compete. Spending in the off-season and playing guys like High isn’t a win-now strategy, it’s a trying to compete as much as you can with the talent you have strategy.
I think this is right on the button. Except that clearly they can “compete”. They lost to Tampa by two and could have won on the field goal. They lost to Dallas in OT. They’re absolutely “competing”, even against the league’s best teams.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I think this is right on the button. Except that clearly they can “compete”. They lost to Tampa by two and could have won on the field goal. They lost to Dallas in OT. They’re absolutely “competing”, even against the league’s best teams.
Agree 100%. And hopefully being competitive in all these games actually helps down the line when (or if) the talent level picks up.
 

jsinger121

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I think this is right on the button. Except that clearly they can “compete”. They lost to Tampa by two and could have won on the field goal. They lost to Dallas in OT. They’re absolutely “competing”, even against the league’s best teams.
Look if this team becomes a mirror imagine of the 1993 Patriots I will be happy. Play your ass off with a rookie QB to be in every game but lose enough where you get a top 10 pick to start infusing this team with serious talent.
 

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BB clearly has zero confidence in his offense in these kind of “gotta have it” situations where the defense will throw the kitchen sink at our rookie QB, our porous line, and a WR/TE group mainly made of new guys. Look at what a low percentage play we ended up being forced into on the 3rd and 3 in OT. This isn’t TB12 throwing to Jules, Gronk, and James White (whose absence really hurts in these spots).

I’d like him to be more aggressive but it’s not like he’s a moron and he understands what’s happening with the offense a lot better than anybody sitting at home shouting at the TV.
The only way to get better at these situations is to get more reps. If they fail, they fail. Not even trying is worse.
 

BroodsSexton

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BB clearly has zero confidence in his offense in these kind of “gotta have it” situations where the defense will throw the kitchen sink at our rookie QB, our porous line, and a WR/TE group mainly made of new guys. Look at what a low percentage play we ended up being forced into on the 3rd and 3 in OT. This isn’t TB12 throwing to Jules, Gronk, and James White (whose absence really hurts in these spots).

I’d like him to be more aggressive but it’s not like he’s a moron and he understands what’s happening with the offense a lot better than anybody sitting at home shouting at the TV.
Yeah but the 4th and 3 at the end is the biggest head scratcher. The defense had been on the field all day and there was pretty much no way they were getting a stop short of field goal range (at least that’s how it felt to me), and even if you get the ball back you still have to make plays in overtime. So you might as well try for one there. That one really felt like conceding the game.
 

Melrose Diner

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Look if this team becomes a mirror imagine of the 1993 Patriots I will be happy. Play your ass off with a rookie QB to be in every game but lose enough where you get a top 10 pick to start infusing this team with serious talent.
Right, but do you trust the current organizational hierarchy to make the right pick in that situation based on recent draft history?
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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The only way to get better at these situations is to get more reps. If they fail, they fail. Not even trying is worse.
Right. If we don’t trust the offense or QB in these situations, what exactly are we trying to do? How will the offense ever gain the trust in these situations if they don’t get to try them? Why is the roster filled with guys the coach acquires but doesn’t trust?

If the team is truly going nowhere this year, you have to take some risks and try to convert these almost wins into actual ones. The defense isn’t close to good enough for the offense to be playing so conservatively.
 

j-man

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BTW i would take a 90 year old bill over my coach i even wouild promise steve the job after bill beats suhla rec
 

Melrose Diner

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They got the draft right with Mac, as far as I am concerned.
That is the only first rounder worth a damn since 2012. Michel was disposed of, Harry is a bust, Wynn is on the cusp of that. Hell, even the second round picks he’s made recently are lukewarm at best as a whole. I’d like someone else making roster decisions.
 

jsinger121

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That is the only first rounder worth a damn since 2012. Michel was disposed of, Harry is a bust, Wynn is on the cusp of that. Hell, even the second round picks he’s made recently are lukewarm at best as a whole. I’d like someone else making roster decisions.
And frankly he might have even been coaxed into taking Jones at 15. You know he was probably itching to take a nose tackle at 15.
 

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You have to disentangle the coaching from the GM/Personnel. The game plan and coaching still seems very good to me. The players are just ok.
I agree. While he still seems very good at understanding a changing game, unlike most old coaches, he is no longer finding those cheap players he can plug in. His draft record is no better than any other gm.
 

ponch73

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He also took a knee at the end of the first half with well over a minute left and a timeout. He clearly doesn’t trust Mac and it isn’t working.
It’s perhaps slightly more justifiable, but he also killed the clock with 20 seconds remaining and a timeout. One would think that there could have been at least 2 downfield throws executed in that time frame.

If BB consistently plays it safe on 4th and short and still loses, what’s the damn point? Had he chosen to be more aggressive against TB and DAL and it didn’t work out, his record wouldn’t be any worse.

There’s a lot of angst on this board about BB the GM and his roster. All that notwithstanding, BB the game manager has not wrapped himself in glory thus far this season.
 

Willie Clay's Big Play

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No. It seems hypocritical, big picture not anyone in particular, to correctly point out out how much the offensive line is hurting the team but then also criticize BB/McD for not going for it on multiple fourth and shorts. The line just sucks. Trusting them to get it when they need it would be coaching malpractice.
They are rebuilding and reloading is going to take a lot longer without TFB under center.
 

Hoya81

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He also took a knee at the end of the first half with well over a minute left and a timeout. He clearly doesn’t trust Mac and it isn’t working.
It’s more the receivers than Mac. They perfectly dialed up a big hitter play for Agholor in OT and he missed it.

I think this is setting up to be a frustrating year for sure, but if Mac continues to improve then they’re in a good position to go after FA WRs in the offseason.
 

lexrageorge

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No. It seems hypocritical, big picture not anyone in particular, to correctly point out out how much the offensive line is hurting the team but then also criticize BB/McD for not going for it on multiple fourth and shorts. The line just sucks. Trusting them to get it when they need it would be coaching malpractice.
They are rebuilding and reloading is going to take a lot longer without TFB under center.
The punt 4th and short in the 2nd quarter was poorly executed, and the coaching staff deserves a ton of criticism for that. They were on their own 35, but the spot was so obviously horrible that they should have challenged it. And there was no reason to rush that.

The 4th and 9 from their own 26 was a no brainer.

The 4th and 2 from midfield could be criticized, but the D did just hold Dallas to a 3-and-out.

The 4th-and-4 from the 46. Hmmm, it was getting late early. But that's not an easy pickup.

But the OT punt was absurd. At that point, a FG wins the game for Dallas. The defense was gassed, no matter how you judge the unit's play to that point.
 

Willie Clay's Big Play

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I agree, the defense was gassed. The fact they even punted shows what little confidence, deservedly so, they have in the o-line. One terrible unit really does have such a huge impact to the overall game plan and game management. This team is in full rebuild mode, but thanks to BB it’s just not obvious.
 

Cellar-Door

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It’s more the receivers than Mac. They perfectly dialed up a big hitter play for Agholor in OT and he missed it.

I think this is setting up to be a frustrating year for sure, but if Mac continues to improve then they’re in a good position to go after FA WRs in the offseason.
It's both, Mac has missed a good number of open shots too. It's also the line. Bill doesn't trust this offense, which... to be fair it's a bad offense, it's a below average line, a below average QB, and below average skill players. However... sometimes you just gotta draw up your best play and chance it because in the modern NFL defense is just much harder, and you need to be able to score.
 

CaptainLaddie

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I think BB the GM had a bunch of down years in there but I think he's been better lately. I agree with @Jinhocho - You look at the success this team had (yes I think Brady covered for BB in those aforementioned down years) over 20 years, and you start thinking about the drain that that kind of success will have on a team when that run ends. The NFL literally stole first round draft picks from the Patriots. The Pats were routinely picking at the end of each round of the draft for two straight decades. Just as an average guess, the Pats routinely finished in the top 4 every year in the NFL (I mean, they made the AFCCG like 8 times in a row) which means that they were always picking like 29-32 in the first round (when Goodell actually allowed them to make a 1st round pick). If you look at the draft value chart, the value of the #30 pick is 620. The value of the #10 pick is 1,300. That's a difference of 680, which is the value of the #27 pick.

So due to their incredible success, the Patriots, just in the first round alone, have been "losing" an average of an additional late 1st round pick compared to teams picking in the top 10 *EACH YEAR*. The fact that they didn't have ANY down years from 2003-2019 meant that they didn't get a chance to reset through the draft. They were always handicapped in that regard. No problem - it was a small price to pay for that kind of success. But it WAS a price to pay.

They are very much in rebuild mode. Anyone who has a problem with that is asking for the impossible. It's ok for the team to rebuild. That they've been as competitive as they've been during a rebuild is a testament to the quality of Bill Belichick.

That doesn't mean he doesn't make mistakes. Obviously he does (I still can't get over drafting that stupid kicker in the 5th round last year). But he makes a lot fewer of them than basically everyone else. If he lost his fastball, he's gotten Tommy John surgery and is rebuilding his arm strength. This organization - despite what many may think right now - is on the ascendency.
This is a really great post. Just wanted to highlight it.
 

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I think the Pats go on a run starting this week v NYJ. They'll figure some things out and Mac is getting more confident. If (and it's a big if(s)) the OL can gel and they get some injury luck, I think they are a WC team. My hot take.

BB the HC has not lost his fb. Nothing re scheme or design seems to elude him. As a GM, he was always Jamie Moyer. No FB but could figure out a way to beat you.
 

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He keeps punting when he shouldn’t and trusting the defense. That punt in OT was gutless. 34 yard punt. Meanwhile your defense allowed 567 yards and the last three Cowboy drives they gained at least 50 yards a drive. TD, MFG, FG. Gutless coaching.
 

SMU_Sox

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BB clearly has zero confidence in his offense in these kind of “gotta have it” situations where the defense will throw the kitchen sink at our rookie QB, our porous line, and a WR/TE group mainly made of new guys. Look at what a low percentage play we ended up being forced into on the 3rd and 3 in OT. This isn’t TB12 throwing to Jules, Gronk, and James White (whose absence really hurts in these spots).

I’d like him to be more aggressive but it’s not like he’s a moron and he understands what’s happening with the offense a lot better than anybody sitting at home shouting at the TV.
I agree but I still think you have to go for it in OT. The defense is not only gassed but haven’t been effective in 3 drives. Each drive they moved the ball at least 50 yards and either scored or attempted a FG. I do think Bill has lost his aggressiveness and even though he has reason to do that it’s been sliding for years even with Brady and in close games the cowardly coach usually is punished with a loss. At some point, and hopefully soon, he needs to start trusting the offense to convert these 4th and manageables.
 

ponch73

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He keeps punting when he shouldn’t and trusting the defense. That punt in OT was gutless. 34 yard punt. Meanwhile your defense allowed 567 yards and the last three Cowboy drives they gained at least 50 yards a drive. TD, MFG, FG. Gutless coaching.
Exactly. BB is punting as if he has a shutdown defense. He doesn’t. And that defense — with its lack of lateral quickness in the middle of the field — is particularly vulnerable when it is gassed.

And forcing his offense off the field prematurely is not doing them any favors either. Aside from the lack of confidence it shows, the unit is not getting additional opportunities to grow and develop.

BB is a genius who can calculate the odds in real time. He should know better.
 

BaseballJones

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It’s more the receivers than Mac. They perfectly dialed up a big hitter play for Agholor in OT and he missed it.

I think this is setting up to be a frustrating year for sure, but if Mac continues to improve then they’re in a good position to go after FA WRs in the offseason.
Just rewatched overtime. The missed personal foul facemask on Agholor by Dallas was a pretty huge no call. Blatant and obvious and right in front of the official.

And the drop you referenced. Ugh. But Mac made a great throw right after the drop under heavy pressure.
 

rodderick

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BB clearly has zero confidence in his offense in these kind of “gotta have it” situations where the defense will throw the kitchen sink at our rookie QB, our porous line, and a WR/TE group mainly made of new guys. Look at what a low percentage play we ended up being forced into on the 3rd and 3 in OT. This isn’t TB12 throwing to Jules, Gronk, and James White (whose absence really hurts in these spots).

I’d like him to be more aggressive but it’s not like he’s a moron and he understands what’s happening with the offense a lot better than anybody sitting at home shouting at the TV.
When you're playing a more talented team that really has outplayed you for about 50 minutes and somehow you're still in a position to win the game, you have to be aggressive. This isn't 2016, you don't extend the game, you don't rely on Brady to eventually come through, there are games you'll have to steal now, so go and grab them. If Mac Jones has shown anything in his short career is the ability to consistently hit a 4 yard pass. If you don't trust him with that, what are we doing?

If Doug Pederson coached the 2017 Super Bowl the way Bill has approached this season, the Pats beat the Eagles 45-21.
 

AlNipper49

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I think the best move would be for them to bring in a GM that would be willing to be over ruled by Belichick but also understand they they would be here to handle the eventual transition away from him. Their first few years would be completely dedicated to refining the draft process. BB is 69 and strategically the succession plan needs to begin.
 

Eagle3

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I think Bill may have lost a couple mph off his fastball, but he's still effective. I would throw some of his assistants into the equation. Do some of them even have a fastball? I think they miss Dante Scarnecchia a lot on the O-line. And on defense, two of Bill's kids figure prominently. Are they good coaches? Would they be employed on another NFL team?
 

rodderick

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I think Bill may have lost a couple mph off his fastball, but he's still effective. I would throw some of his assistants into the equation. Do some of them even have a fastball? I think they miss Dante Scarnecchia a lot on the O-line. And on defense, two of Bill's kids figure prominently. Are they good coaches? Would they be employed on another NFL team?
The brain drain is real and putting more on your HC in both the coaching and personnel fronts as he nears the end of his career isn't exactly a recipe for success. McDaniels aside, the Pats are full of new faces on the staff and Bill doesn't like to bring people in from the outside, so it's a bunch of unproven guys filling important roles for a rebuilding team.

I think this defense has been fine and the best unit on the team. I'm way more concerned with how bad they look on special teams for the amount of money they spend on guys who are nothing but specialists. The offense has lagged far behind the defense as well. This is a defense that as of last week was allowing the 7th fewest yards and points in the league per offensive drive. I don't think Steve and Brian have been an issue, the Pats won a lot of games since about 2007 with much worse defenses than this one. This offense has had the 3rd best average starting field position in the league and ranks 26th in yards and 24th in points per drive. That's where the main issue lies.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I think Bill may have lost a couple mph off his fastball, but he's still effective. I would throw some of his assistants into the equation. Do some of them even have a fastball? I think they miss Dante Scarnecchia a lot on the O-line. And on defense, two of Bill's kids figure prominently. Are they good coaches? Would they be employed on another NFL team?
As fans I don't think we have any real way to assign credit/blame between a coach and his coordinators. It is worth noting that the Bill Belichick coaching tree has not exactly been fruitful - basically no one who came up under BB went on to be a winning NFL coach -which would tend suggest that BB's success has mostly depended on BB, not on his staff.

I think the bolded is right.
View: https://twitter.com/MikeReiss/status/1450050246839570437?s=20

Mike Reiss: Question (via @TheGregHillShow): 2 blocked punts in '21? Bill Belichick: "Neither of those plays should have been a problem. But we just didn't execute them well enough. Obviously we have to coach them better, and play them better...Haven't done anything differently than past."

BB's explanation was partly correct: going for it on 4th down and failing would have meant losing the game. BB's error was in not recognizing that punting the ball away would also have meant losing the game. At least going for it on 4th would have given them a chance.
 

ObstructedView

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Why are we taking a pick 6 off the board?
My point is that I question whether this discussion is occurring, at least at this level, if the Pats pull out a win against a team that most expected to roll us. And the pick-six wasn’t BB’s fault. And if we want to talk about taking plays off the board, how about the Bourne TD that resulted from aggressive play-calling and doesn’t jibe with the “BB doesn’t trust Mac” theme? I fully agree that this is a flawed team, and I hated the kneel-down and punts - but the pig-pile following a tough loss against a clearly more talented team seems knee-jerk to me.
 

rodderick

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My point is that I question whether this discussion is occurring, at least at this level, if the Pats pull out a win against a team that most expected to roll us. And the pick-six wasn’t BB’s fault. And if we want to talk about taking plays off the board, how about the Bourne TD that resulted from aggressive play-calling and doesn’t jibe with the “BB doesn’t trust Mac” theme? I fully agree that this is a flawed team, and I hated the kneel-down and punts - but the pig-pile following a tough loss against a clearly more talented team seems knee-jerk to me.
I think the thread isn't as inflammatory as the title suggests and no one in their right mind wants Bill gone or thinks he's completely lost it. I think he's still far and away the best coach in football from Monday to Saturday, but the league has evolved to make his in game decision making pretty conservative in comparison to what other teams are doing and that's costing them in close games. But also, why are the Pats going into this game with such a talent deficit?
 

Eddie Jurak

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I think the thread isn't as inflammatory as the title suggests and no one in their right mind wants Bill gone or thinks he's completely lost it. I think he's still far and away the best coach in football from Monday to Saturday, but the league has evolved to make his in game decision making pretty conservative in comparison to what other teams are doing and that's costing them in close games. But also, why are the Pats going into this game with such a talent deficit?
On that point, my thread title is "Has BB lost his fastball?" not "Should Kraft show BB the door?"

My concern was mostly over in-game coaching. BB should have known his defense was done yesterday and not gone ultraconservative, but he didn't. BB should know that play-calling so conservative it feeds his young QB a steady diet of 3rd and long isn''t going to work.

I'll add that BB has never really found a way to defend some parts of the modern game like RPOs, etc.

This Patriot team seems essentially to be the 2000 Patriots as opposed to the 2001 unit, despite an investment in free agents somewhat reminiscent of 2001. Does a pushing 70 BB have it in him to rebuild? I don't know.
 

streeter88

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I think Bill may have lost a couple mph off his fastball, but he's still effective. I would throw some of his assistants into the equation. Do some of them even have a fastball? I think they miss Dante Scarnecchia a lot on the O-line. And on defense, two of Bill's kids figure prominently. Are they good coaches? Would they be employed on another NFL team?
I’ve been waiting for someone to make this point. I seem to recall that Scarnecchia was replaced by not one but two coaches, and one was let go because he wouldn’t get vaccinated (Cole Popovich- though he seems to still be on the Patriots.com website?)

The defense is a harder call. Coaching may not be great (and plagued by nepotism), but as others have pointed out that’s far from the only issue.

Just looking at the coaching tree on Patriots.com, kind of looks like we’re in a rebuilding year there too. Other teams always seem to be stealing coaching talent from us, maybe it’s time we returned the favor?

Edit: beaten to it by Rodderick.
 

jsinger121

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I think the thread isn't as inflammatory as the title suggests and no one in their right mind wants Bill gone or thinks he's completely lost it. I think he's still far and away the best coach in football from Monday to Saturday, but the league has evolved to make his in game decision making pretty conservative in comparison to what other teams are doing and that's costing them in close games. But also, why are the Pats going into this game with such a talent deficit?
Because they whiffed on the draft in 3 straight drafts from 17-19 forcing them to overspend on free agents that probably aren’t really that good outside of potentially Judon and maybe Hunter Henry.
 

rodderick

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I’ve been waiting for someone to make this point. I seem to recall that Scarnecchia was replaced by not one but two coaches, and one was let go because he wouldn’t get vaccinated (Cole Popovich- though he seems to still be on the Patriots.com website?)

The defense is a harder call. Coaching may not be great (and plagued by nepotism), but as others have pointed out that’s far from the only issue.

Just looking at the coaching tree on Patriots.com, kind of looks like we’re in a rebuilding year there too. Other teams always seem to be stealing coaching talent from us, maybe it’s time we returned the favor?

Edit: beaten to it by Rodderick.
This Nora Princiotti article goes in depth into that issue and I thought it was a great read.
 

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My point is that I question whether this discussion is occurring, at least at this level, if the Pats pull out a win against a team that most expected to roll us. And the pick-six wasn’t BB’s fault. And if we want to talk about taking plays off the board, how about the Bourne TD that resulted from aggressive play-calling and doesn’t jibe with the “BB doesn’t trust Mac” theme? I fully agree that this is a flawed team, and I hated the kneel-down and punts - but the pig-pile following a tough loss against a clearly more talented team seems knee-jerk to me.
It's not really knee-jerk at this point. The team is 2-4. They went 7-9 last year. They closed the 2019 season 2-4. They've been mediocre-to-bad for nearly two full seasons now.
 

streeter88

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 2, 2006
1,816
Melbourne, Australia
This Nora Princiotti article goes in depth into that issue and I thought it was a great read.
Thanks for this. I remember being angry for BB when all the assistants kept following the new HCs to their new teams, But I didn’t realize the extent of it.

100 years of experience. Wow.

Looking on the bright side of it, probably won’t happen again for another few years yet. Lol