Jayson Tatum Needs His Own Thread

lovegtm

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I thought it was just the opposite. BBref takes overall defensive team ratings and then adjusts using box score numbers like blocks and steals to come up with a number for each player.
Yeah this is correct I think. It's a bizarre approach.

Anyway, not a big deal--I know what Basketball Jones was getting at, and the actual numbers make his case more strongly actually.
 

amarshal2

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Allowing for the arbitrary monthly cutoff and the way too small Oct/Feb samples, here are Tatum’s TS% by month:

Oct. .482
Nov. .520
Dec. .562
Jan. .567
Feb. .599

If we did it by game it wouldn’t look so linear as he was feast/famine in January but overall after a difficult early transition it sure seems like he’s starting to thrive.

edit: there are a bunch of other linear progressions across years from rookie year to this year
TRB% 9.0 -> 10.9
Ast% 8.3 -> 13.8
STL% 1.7 -> 2.0
BLK% 2.0 -> 2.3
TOV% 10.7 -> 9.3
USG% 19.5 -> 28.0

He still needs to figure out how to cut out the need for mid range shots. He’s shooting .363 on shots 3-10 and .414 on shots 10-16ft.

The guys he looks up to Kawhi, George, Butler, Harden...none of them have made those shots efficient. It might never come for him. He really just needs to figure out how to get to the line.

Side note that Hayward is at .476/.474 on 3-10/10-16 and Brown is at .431/.550. Those are strong marks but unless Browns top or the key 10-12 footer is legit we still want those guys drawing free throws instead of shooting mid range.
 
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slamminsammya

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I am fine with Hayward shooting midrange. If he cut that out he'd have no counter when he goes to the hoop and is cut off since his explosion ain't what it used to be.
 

Devizier

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I like Jaysons midrange at this point, too. Often it seems like he takes them in hard situations (play doesn’t develop, e.g.) In the old days it seemed like he would step in from the three and that appears to be over.
 

Jimbodandy

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Agree with all of this. In general, I think that a certain percentage of midrange inside of 15 or so is not a bad thing. For Tatun, maybe that's more like 16-17 at the top end. It makes people not sell out on the drive. Brown is destroying that right now. Tatum and Hayward are good shooters. If it's in your bag, and opponents have to respect it, I'd be shocked if Brad minds the occasional one. It's the 21 footers that are bad shots, unless there's 1 second on the clock.
 

lovegtm

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What's to stop Tatum from upping his 3-point volume to like 10/game? He's getting really comfortable with that side-step iso 3.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Agree with all of this. In general, I think that a certain percentage of midrange inside of 15 or so is not a bad thing. For Tatun, maybe that's more like 16-17 at the top end. It makes people not sell out on the drive. Brown is destroying that right now. Tatum and Hayward are good shooters. If it's in your bag, and opponents have to respect it, I'd be shocked if Brad minds the occasional one. It's the 21 footers that are bad shots, unless there's 1 second on the clock.
Yeah I think Tatum needs to develop a different move to score in those areas than what he has shown so far—if he shoots in those areas at all. The floater is a big no-go, and because he is not the quickest guy, he ends up relying on tough fadeaway shots a lot of the time.

Midrange has been good for Brown because he is so damn explosive that he can easily put the defender on roller skates and end up with super clean looks for pull-ups. He's also gotten VERY good at getting a little deeper into the paint and using a little hesitation or pump fake to free up those baby hook/push-shots he started flashing this year. Hayward, meanwhile, needs a bit more of a windup from the top of the key but he squares up to the basket really well on pull-ups and his clean handle means he is finding good spots too. He's also got that lovely little stop, pivot, fadeaway from 5-8 feet.

Tatum is a little more methodical getting into these areas, so he just isn't freeing up his shooting hand as well.
 

benhogan

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Any chance JT gets a beard trim during All-Star weekend? It's a patchy mess.

The dude is costing himself some endorsement dollars
 

lovegtm

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Probably about time to play "who would you trade Tatum for straight up?" Factor in age, contract, position, and room/ability to improve--ie not "who do you want for the playoffs this year?"

Yes:
Giannis (with assurances to re-sign, although post-Kyrie that's tricky)
Kawhi (with re-sign assurances)
Luka (in a different world as a playmaker/offensive engine, the most valuable skill; Tatum seems on track to be able to generate better self-created 3s and is in a different world defensively. This was a slam-dunk for Luka in November, and Tatum has really closed the gap)

Really Good But No:
AD (on-court yes, would never feel confident he'd re-sign after last year)
Siakam (age matters and they’re not far apart currently)
Embiid (close, but health/fitness/mentality concerns)
Harden (this one is very close, and purely because of age. Reasonable minds could differ)
Simmons
Jokic
Booker
PG (age)
Zion (health concerns, reasonable minds can differ)
Dame (age)
Steph (age)
LeBron (age)
KD (age, health)

No:
Ja
KAT (Tatum, one scorer and roleplayers might make the playoffs in the East. KAT's D is so bad I'm not sure that's the case for him.)
Donovan
Jamaal Murray
Ingram

Conclusion
There are quibbles with the "Really Good But No" section I'm sure, and a lot of this is the NBA not being super-stacked in the young stars category atm. But I don't think this is a homer-ific list, and it's pretty ridiculous.

Pray hard for the All-NBA voters next year to pay more attention to O than D and favor incumbents, otherwise Tatum will be getting a 30% max rather than a 25%.
 
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Jimbodandy

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Definitely
Giannis

Probably
Luka
Trae

That's it. AD and Kawhi are better players, but I wouldn't trade Tatum for either. Same goes for Harden, Lebron, and a few others.
 

lovegtm

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Definitely
Giannis

Probably
Luka
Trae

That's it. AD and Kawhi are better players, but I wouldn't trade Tatum for either. Same goes for Harden, Lebron, and a few others.
Trae is just such a dumpster fire defensively--at least Luka has size. The Hawks look halfway credible on defense with Trae out.

Anyway, hopefully the All-NBA voters share your perspective on the value of defense and Tatum doesn't get paid! ;)
 

Jimbodandy

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Trae is just such a dumpster fire defensively--at least Luka has size.
I know. It's honestly gut. I expect his shooting and overall command to continue to improve, even to the point that his atrocious defense just doesn't matter. It's far easier to make a case for Kawhi et al. I get it.

Doncic probably belongs in the probably category for me, but it felt like Giannis deserves that for himself.
 

nighthob

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Pray hard for the All-NBA voters next year to pay more attention to O than D and favor incumbents, otherwise Tatum will be getting a 30% max rather than a 25%.
I take the opposite tack. Given all the work that Kyrantie has put into poaching Tatum to help them contend in their declining years (and were putting in before the 2019 season, Danny screwed up not unloading that colon cancer last winter), I hope that the voters focus firmly on the D, because that’s Boston’s best bet at ensuring that Jayson plays most of his career here.
 

lexrageorge

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Kyrie and Tatum hated each other, and both Durant and Irving will be in serious decline by the time Tatum is free agent.
 

nighthob

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Yet for some reason Tatum vacationed with Kyrantie in the summer of ‘18 and recently admitted that he and Irving were still friends. You’re thinking of Jaylen. He hated Irving.

As far as contract mechanics, Tatum doesn’t need to accept a five year deal. He could demand a four year deal with an opt out. So, if only a 25% max deal were available, there’s a good chance that Tatum is Boston’s property for four more years, and maybe less if he Anthony Davised the Celtics. On the other hand, five year 30% max deal? He ain’t going nowhere.
 

lovegtm

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Yet for some reason Tatum vacationed with Kyrantie in the summer of ‘18 and recently admitted that he and Irving were still friends. You’re thinking of Jaylen. He hated Irving.

As far as contract mechanics, Tatum doesn’t need to accept a five year deal. He could demand a four year deal with an opt out. So, if only a 25% max deal were available, there’s a good chance that Tatum is Boston’s property for four more years, and maybe less if he Anthony Davised the Celtics. On the other hand, five year 30% max deal? He ain’t going nowhere.
Didn’t Simmons get the 5-year, no player option, but with an escalation to 30% if he hits the Rose Rule incentives? I imagine Tatum will sign the same thing in July.
 

The Social Chair

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Kyrie and Tatum hated each other, and both Durant and Irving will be in serious decline by the time Tatum is free agent.
Kyrie and Morris were Tatum's closest friends on the team. Having said that, Kyrie and Durant will be washed in 5 years, and Donvan Mitchell is the guy I expect Tatum to want to team up with. They became really close on the USA team, their contracts expire at the same time, and Mitchell is definitely leaving Utah.

Pretty sure every top 10 player will bolt from the team that drafted them after their 2nd contract is up. NBA would be smart to add a franchise tag.
 

nighthob

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If Tatum signs a Designated Player contract it means that he’s eligible for 30% max contract on his post-rookie deal and a 35% max deal the second time he hits free agency. That’s an awful lot of money to walk away from. (And that’s why you want the voters to notice defense).
 

Montana Fan

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Our soon to be 22 year old looks more confident than I’ve ever seen him. Maybe it’s partially the competition but I also wonder how Kobe’s death affected him. I know it’s speculation but maybe it serioused (sic) him up a bit more and he’s decided this is going to be his team. Tatum looks to have moved into an assertive #1 scorer role and I don’t think he plans to relinquish it. Share? Yes, absolutely but I think we’re seeing him blossom to the next level right now. He’s a 25 ppg scorer going forward. And next year or the following, 30 ppg is where he’ll be. The game is getting easier for him on both ends. Give him another 8-12 pounds and look out.
 

benhogan

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Probably about time to play "who would you trade Tatum for straight up?" Factor in age, contract, position, and room/ability to improve--ie not "who do you want for the playoffs this year?"

Yes:
Giannis (with assurances to re-sign, although post-Kyrie that's tricky)
Kawhi (with re-sign assurances)
Luka (in a different world as a playmaker/offensive engine, the most valuable skill; Tatum seems on track to be able to generate better self-created 3s and is in a different world defensively. This was a slam-dunk for Luka in November, and Tatum has really closed the gap)

Really Good But No:
AD (on-court yes, would never feel confident he'd re-sign after last year)
Siakam (age matters and they’re not far apart currently)
Embiid (close, but health/fitness/mentality concerns)
Harden (this one is very close, and purely because of age. Reasonable minds could differ)
Simmons
Jokic
Booker
PG (age)
Zion (health concerns, reasonable minds can differ)
Dame (age)
Steph (age)
LeBron (age)
KD (age, health)

No:
Ja
KAT (Tatum, one scorer and roleplayers might make the playoffs in the East. KAT's D is so bad I'm not sure that's the case for him.)
Donovan
Jamaal Murray
Ingram

Conclusion
There are quibbles with the "Really Good But No" section I'm sure, and a lot of this is the NBA not being super-stacked in the young stars category atm. But I don't think this is a homer-ific list, and it's pretty ridiculous.

Pray hard for the All-NBA voters next year to pay more attention to O than D and favor incumbents, otherwise Tatum will be getting a 30% max rather than a 25%.
Giannis, that's it. JT not close to being a finished product
Our soon to be 22 year old looks more confident than I’ve ever seen him. Maybe it’s partially the competition but I also wonder how Kobe’s death affected him. I know it’s speculation but maybe it serioused (sic) him up a bit more and he’s decided this is going to be his team.
does Kobe's greatness extend to the grave? o_O
 

lexrageorge

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I'd say there's zero risk of Tatum walking away from the Designated Player rookie extension; I think there's little chance of him walking away from a rookie extension even if ineligible.

Players have walked away from the Supermax
 

amarshal2

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Probably the best thing about JT is that he/the Celtics/his shooting coach consistently identify his weaknesses and he addresses them. Earlier in the season he was just playing too rushed. Everything was like like watching the game on 1.25x when he had the ball. You can really tell he slowed down, got comfortable, figures out what was working and focused on it. Offensively he’s a different player than earlier in the season. I guarantee you finishing around the rim and drawing contact will be what he works on this offseason. Just a super impressive guy. Sky is the limit. Brown is pretty similar. Danny knows how to look for drive.
 

luckiestman

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Our soon to be 22 year old looks more confident than I’ve ever seen him. Maybe it’s partially the competition but I also wonder how Kobe’s death affected him. I know it’s speculation but maybe it serioused (sic) him up a bit more and he’s decided this is going to be his team. Tatum looks to have moved into an assertive #1 scorer role and I don’t think he plans to relinquish it. Share? Yes, absolutely but I think we’re seeing him blossom to the next level right now. He’s a 25 ppg scorer going forward. And next year or the following, 30 ppg is where he’ll be. The game is getting easier for him on both ends. Give him another 8-12 pounds and look out.

I thought the same thing about the Kobe death. Just a feeling.
 

lovegtm

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For those who care about such things...remember when Tatum was an inefficient disappointment on offense and Siakam was an unstoppable offensive force? Tatum now has a higher TS% than Siakam on nearly as high usage and is 4 years younger.
 

Gash Prex

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Watching Tatum's growth over the year has been pretty exciting. You could see him early trying to figure out his mandate of getting to the rim or taking 3s in the beginning of the year. Now it looks like its all slowing down for him and he can easily get his 20+ on a nightly basis. His TS % reflect his increasing efficiency.



This is not just some hot "week". All I can think of watching this past month is that he's making the "the leap"

 
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lovegtm

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I mean, Siakam is still great. Probably a top 20 player. Tatum might already be a top 10 player.
“Yeah, I guess Pascal Siakam is a fine player, but Bae Tatum...”

...is something no one dreamed we’d be saying by February. Having an elite iso pullup 3 (or the strong potential to develop one) really changes everything for a player’s value in the modern NBA.

Tatum is one of the longer guys to have that shot, which really changes what he can do with it.
 

Devizier

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It’s the defense, I mean the way he erases like half the court is awesome. I know it was there in the beginning but he has kept it up despite the increased load. The impact is akin to what centers used to provide under the old illegal defense regime.
 

lovegtm

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It’s the defense, I mean the way he erases like half the court is awesome. I know it was there in the beginning but he has kept it up despite the increased load. The impact is akin to what centers used to provide under the old illegal defense regime.
Yes! When I say that Tatum is a scheme-making defender, I mean that he has the chance to have elite-center-like defensive impact in terms of letting everyone else do simpler jobs.
 

CreightonGubanich

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He defends like the very best of Kevin Durant. Tatum isn't quite as long as Durant, but he's similar in his ability to be all over the floor at once - digging on the roll man, recovering to the three point line to close out shooters, blocking shots from the weak side and in transition. I think Jaylen Brown might be a touch better as an on-the-ball defender against a like-sized opponent; the Jimmy Butlers of the world. That's really valuable. But Tatum can switch 1-5 and protect the rim. He's the most versatile Celtics defender I can remember since Gerald Wallace*.



*That was a joke.
 

luckiestman

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He defends like the very best of Kevin Durant. Tatum isn't quite as long as Durant, but he's similar in his ability to be all over the floor at once - digging on the roll man, recovering to the three point line to close out shooters, blocking shots from the weak side and in transition. I think Jaylen Brown might be a touch better as an on-the-ball defender against a like-sized opponent; the Jimmy Butlers of the world. That's really valuable. But Tatum can switch 1-5 and protect the rim. He's the most versatile Celtics defender I can remember since Gerald Wallace*.



*That was a joke.
*dont ever forget this pass

View: https://youtu.be/DAZdxOmoZRE
 

Cesar Crespo

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Last 31: 33.6 minutes, .462/.405/.845, 23.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.4 steals, 1.0 blocks.

Damn.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Seeing the threes going in so consistently must make it a lot easier for him to resist getting to the contested Kobe spots on the floor. Would love to see the stats specifically on his side-step 3pt shot, which appears to be absolutely lethal. Why try to back someone down for a tough fadeaway when you can just square up to the basket any time you want. He has also done a great job with extra dribbles to help him get closer to the rim when he's in attack mode. No more of those swooping layups that look pretty but telegraph the shot.
 

RorschachsMask

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Seeing the threes going in so consistently must make it a lot easier for him to resist getting to the contested Kobe spots on the floor. Would love to see the stats specifically on his side-step 3pt shot, which appears to be absolutely lethal. Why try to back someone down for a tough fadeaway when you can just square up to the basket any time you want. He has also done a great job with extra dribbles to help him get closer to the rim when he's in attack mode. No more of those swooping layups that look pretty but telegraph the shot.
Not exactly just on his side step, but a majority of his off the dribble threes are that move.


Jayson Tatum (26.8 points per game) has led seven Celtics averaging double-figures over the 10-1 stretch and has shot 24-for-45 from 3-point range over the last five. He already has a new career high for 3-pointers in a season (126), a result of him trading mid-range shots for 3-pointer and improving his shooting off the dribble. After shooting 32.0% on off-the-dribble 3-pointers over his first two seasons, Tatum has shot 39.2% this season, a mark that ranks sixth among 45 players who have attempted at least 100 pull-up 3-pointers.
 

lovegtm

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... Would love to see the stats specifically on his side-step 3pt shot, which appears to be absolutely lethal....
I saw someone on Twitter posting that the only wing comparable to Tatum on volume and accuracy of self-created pullup 3s is PG. They were both in the 4/game at 38% range give or take.
 

lovegtm

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I'll have a Tatum off-ball defense video up soon, but man, he is a stud. He does the right thing so often on all levels, in ways the other Celtics wings just don't (and they're not awful defenders).
 

lovegtm

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Here's all defensive plays he impacted against OKC. On-ball they targeted him with CP3, but no one else. Off-ball is spectacular, and by the 4th there aren't many clips to show, because OKC just stops involving the weakside on actions when he's there.

Rebounding is an area where I didn't expect to be impressed but was. He successfully out-rebounds Adams multiple times, and gets back to help Theis on others. Those aren't Westbrook triple-double boards; they're real value-adds.

View: https://youtu.be/4rDimZ7kUfo
 

mostman

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To pile on - his assist numbers have also been steadily increasing. He’s just shy of averaging 3 for the season and over the last handful of games he’s around 4. I think way back earlier in this thread we discussed how important it would be to get him from 2 to 3. Well, he’s doing it. And it’s mostly due to actually trying to find open teammates instead of just dumping it off when his lane is shut down.