Jaylen Brown, Year 7

luckiestman

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Checking basketball reference, since 2019-2020 his turnover rate has doubled and averaged about 2.6 per game.

You can’t really replace 26 ppg scorers-they have to put him in better positions to succeed. When facilitating, he’s way too vulnerable to being trapped and coughing it up. They desperately need a pass first PG to get the ball out of his hands and keep him moving and cutting. Smart is going to be the one to go.
Curry has averaged like 3 turnovers a game for his career.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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Checking basketball reference, since 2019-2020 his turnover rate has doubled and averaged about 2.6 per game.

You can’t really replace 26 ppg scorers-they have to put him in better positions to succeed. When facilitating, he’s way too vulnerable to being trapped and coughing it up. They desperately need a pass first PG to get the ball out of his hands and keep him moving and cutting. Smart is going to be the one to go.
I’m not sure if he needs to go or if he needs a reduced role, but I think it’s pretty obvious that Derrick White should be the starting and primary PG for this team.
 

k-factory

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Brogdon tore a tendon in his shooting arm Game 1.
This is the Jaylen thread so don’t want to derail too much. But shooting aside Brogdon was out of position often, a step slow as whoever he was guarding would blow by, help defense looked late and he did not adjust to finding good shots for others.
Jaylen has his work cut out for him. He needs to develop focus and better hall handling. I don’t know if that cake is baked. Dude has insane willpower to improve.
 

luckiestman

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JB should be a GREAT #3 versus a Good #2.

Nevertheless in the NBA those guys get paid max contracts. If that's what JT wants it's going to be hard to avoid, but on the plus side if they really buy in together...when they are on, maybe no better duo in the league. But have to think clear and shoot straight, otherwise you get tonight.
who are better second fiddles than JB?

Booker
Playoff Murray
Lebron/Davis(choose)
Jrue?

Im not gonna let one game make me crazy. This was an AWFUL game for JB, no doubt about that.
 

ALiveH

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JB can absolutely be the #2 guy on a championship level team. The overreactions are just dumb. He's not perfect but he's one of the best in the game.
 

Reardon's Beard

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who are better second fiddles than JB?

Booker
Playoff Murray
Lebron/Davis(choose)
Jrue?

Im not gonna let one game make me crazy. This was an AWFUL game for JB, no doubt about that.
I don't really disagree, but his shortcomings need to be better balanced elsewhere. This was radioactive knucklehead stuff tonight. It just kills the team. It kills them to the tune of eight turnovers. You have to work hard to accomplish that in a solo performance. I mean it's impressive to get fleeced that much.

Need a guard with handles to keep the ball out of his hands when he isn't shooting or already in motion to the basket. Everything else he's incredible. So, we need to do a better job of covering that going forward.
 

Auger34

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who are better second fiddles than JB?

Booker
Playoff Murray
Lebron/Davis(choose)
Jrue?

Im not gonna let one game make me crazy. This was an AWFUL game for JB, no doubt about that.
Booker and LeBron/Davis.

Murray is a very good player but I think playing with Jokic makes him look better than he is
 

luckiestman

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Booker and LeBron/Davis.

Murray is a very good player but I think playing with Jokic makes him look better than he is
I think so too but he can really light it up. I think if you were picking a guy to be your 1 you would take Jaylen over Murray but as a guy that can play off someone, Murray might be more of a complimentary player. Academic discussion anyway.
 

Ale Xander

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who are better second fiddles than JB?

Booker
Playoff Murray
Lebron/Davis(choose)
Jrue?

Im not gonna let one game make me crazy. This was an AWFUL game for JB, no doubt about that.
Wiggins
Sabonis
Playoff Caleb Martin
KAT on offense
Harden
Kyrie
Middleton if healthy
George if healthy
Bane
 

BaseballJones

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Curry has averaged like 3 turnovers a game for his career.
Curry handles the ball WAYYYYY more than Jaylen does. And of course, he does way more positive things with it than Jaylen does. So having a tiny bit more turnovers is a small price to pay for all that production and ball handling.
 

Auger34

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Wiggins
Sabonis
Playoff Caleb Martin
KAT on offense
Harden
Kyrie
Middleton if healthy
George if healthy
Bane
Terry Rozier against Eric Bledsoe
Gabe Vincent in the game he scored 29 points
John Havlicek if we can figure out the technology for a Time Machine
 

luckiestman

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Wiggins
Sabonis
Playoff Caleb Martin
KAT on offense
Harden
Kyrie
Middleton if healthy
George if healthy
Bane
Harden maybe, the guy is not in shape. The “if” healthy is a big if as we don’t know if Jaylen was healthy. PG healthy is better. I do t watch enough Bane.

Kyrie? Tatum and JB swept Durant and Kyrie. How’s that happen if Kyrie is better than JB? Don’t troll me, you know I hate Mr Chemistry. I don’t even like typing his name.
 

Ale Xander

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Harden maybe, the guy is not in shape. The “if” healthy is a big if as we don’t know if Jaylen was healthy. PG healthy is better. I do t watch enough Bane.

Kyrie? Tatum and JB swept Durant and Kyrie. How’s that happen if Kyrie is better than JB? Don’t troll me, you know I hate Mr Chemistry. I don’t even like typing his name.
I hate him more than anyone but he’s a better 2nd fiddle

Celtics are much deeper
Takes more than 2 players for basketball (if you’re doing it right and passing and playing D)
 

Auger34

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I hate him more than anyone but he’s a better 2nd fiddle

Celtics are much deeper
Takes more than 2 players for basketball (if you’re doing it right and passing and playing D)
I assumed that list was trolling. If it’s not, that’s hilariously bad
 

kazuneko

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I’m not sure if he needs to go or if he needs a reduced role, but I think it’s pretty obvious that Derrick White should be the starting and primary PG for this team.
Is there any reason to believe that Joe Mazzulla will do that? If that’s the goal Stevens will need to trade Smart or fire Mazzulla.
 

greek_gawd_of_walks

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I'm off jaylen. Guy has zero handle, and doubly so when he has to go multiple levels of defense. Three point is suspect. Defensive IQ is super suspect. Guy gets caught looking the wrong way every time. He's not a knock down shooter. He's peaked, and it's incredibly underwhelming. I hope other teams don't notice.

Other than that, he's all NBA guy (minus Durant....and every other guy who didn't play enough to qualify).
 

lovegtm

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A lot of this depends on what the team knows about Jaylen's health. I definitely don't feel great about supermaxing him when he can't provide any offense on a night where Tatum is a decoy.

You can make the argument that he needs to play off Tatum to be good, and I'd agree, but guys who need to play off guys don't get 35% contracts unless they're DPOY candidates.

I've seen him be that elite scorer before, so again, a lot depends on what the team thinks his health situation was in this series.
 

kazuneko

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A lot of this depends on what the team knows about Jaylen's health. I definitely don't feel great about supermaxing him when he can't provide any offense on a night where Tatum is a decoy.

You can make the argument that he needs to play off Tatum to be good, and I'd agree, but guys who need to play off guys don't get 35% contracts unless they're DPOY candidates.

I've seen him be that elite scorer before, so again, a lot depends on what the team thinks his health situation was in this series.
If he resigns this year you run it back next year with the same Tatum and Brian core. If they fail to win next year you can trade him at a premium, as he’ll be signed long term and still only 27.
 

CJM

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I wonder if playoff basketball exposes Jaylen's limitations (or just playing against the Heat). On defense, he's bad off-ball, so he can be schemed against, a bigger issue in long playoff series. On offense, there are fewer transition opportunities so his driving ability is limited. When he does drive, set defenses have a better chance of working on his bad handle, like the Heat when they collapsed on him. He seemed like he was working to get jumpers at the elbow, but a lot of those shots were really contested (he still makes contested shots due to his strength and lift, but they didn't strike me as reliable shots). So he can't initiate (because his passing isn't great) and can't get his own midrange shot reliably off, his drives are prone to turnover, and all that leaves is his 3-pt shot, which is variable.

Against PHI and ATL, his was hitting 3-PT shots at a higher rate and his FG% in general was higher. It all collapsed vs. Miami, so maybe they're just a horrible matchup for him. Then again, the turnovers were a problem throughout, and were a problem last year against the Heat and Warriors. Same with his unreliable FT shooting. Those strike me as issues the playoffs are going to highlight.

Regardless, if Tatum wants him back, and there's no way to get near equal value for him, you have to supermax him, right? It's not really about whether he deserves that much money or that much of the cap, it's that there isn't much else you can do without taking a huge step back, squandering some of Tatum's prime, and pissing him off. Unless Brad pulls off some wizardry like Hob is suggesting with HOU/BKN trades.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Are we thinking that Brown has stopped developing at year 7 & age 26?

I'd assume that his value will grow and not decline in the next 2-3 years, at least. Keeping Brown seems like a no-brainer to me.
 

lovegtm

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If this were a best of 9 series, and you had the option to trade Jaylen Brown to the Heat for Caleb Martin, for games 8 and 9, would you do it?

The fact that there will be a lot of "yes"s and "no, but close"s is not great for the Celtics when 5/295 is coming up as a decision.
 

RorschachsMask

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They were all Butler. @RorschachsMask apparently saw differently but to my eye it looked that after Tatum got hurt, anytime Jaylen tried to drive they just completely sank in on him knowing no one could hit a shot. And then Butler guarded him more after that as well.
You were correct, they did in fact have Butler on Jaylen more yesterday, 22 possessions against JB, 19 against Tatum. Martin defended Tatum for 22, and Jaylen for 20. Vincent and Strus weren’t on Jaylen that much, though them playing a lot of zone can kind of screw up the matchup data.

Watching again, they played him mostly straight up, but did collapse on him a few times.

Like I said above though, they lost that game for a ton of reasons, not just Jaylen.
 
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Ed Hillel

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The way Tatum answered the Jaylen question last night, you basically have to get Dame or something back for Jaylen or re-sign him. You just can’t lose Tatum, and even though I’d actively be working to try to see if there’s a deal this offseason that made sense to move Jaylen, the Celtics have to do the kow tow to the superstar game, just like every other team.
 

Toe Nash

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I think Jaylen is a great player but his weaknesses are about the worst you can have in the playoffs. When threes aren't falling, you're down on the scoreboard and you need to drive to draw fouls and get kickouts/ball movement*, you can't be losing the ball on your own...you just can't. It killed them last year against Miami and GS and it obviously killed them last night. Robs momentum and makes everyone have to work harder, and goes into transition defense with everyone running back instead of getting set.

Yeah he can get better but...this was a problem last playoffs and it was worse this year. I dunno.

He's absolutely the kind of player a dumb team wants to be their #1 and they should find that team. I don't think this is overreaction as he was doing the same thing in the Philly series.

*Jaylen also is bad at identifying passing opportunities...too often when he drives he just puts his head down and is never going to pass the ball and the defense knows it.
 

Auger34

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You were correct, they did in fact have Butler on Jaylen more yesterday, 22 possessions against JB, 19 against Tatum. Martin defended Tatum for 22, and Jaylen for 20. Vincent and Strus weren’t on Jaylen that much, though them playing a lot of zone can kind of screw up the matchup data.

Watching again, they played him mostly straight up, but did collapse on him a few times.

Like I said above though, they lost that game for a ton of reasons, not just Jaylen.
Sadly, I knew Butler guarded him so much because of the amount of times he picked his pocket from behind…

And agreed on the last sentence. It was a snowball effect but Jaylen was definitely the biggest offender.
 

Auger34

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If this were a best of 9 series, and you had the option to trade Jaylen Brown to the Heat for Caleb Martin, for games 8 and 9, would you do it?

The fact that there will be a lot of "yes"s and "no, but close"s is not great for the Celtics when 5/295 is coming up as a decision.
For the first 7 games, don’t you think Caleb Martin was the best player on the floor? Over Tatum, Butler, Brown, everyone.
 

lovegtm

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For the first 7 games, don’t you think Caleb Martin was the best player on the floor? Over Tatum, Butler, Brown, everyone.
He's in the convo, but that's hindsight. The question is more interesting/painful when you ask it going forward for a few games.
 

Humphrey

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For the first 7 games, don’t you think Caleb Martin was the best player on the floor? Over Tatum, Butler, Brown, everyone.
While I don't want Miami to win and don't expect them to win, I'm really rooting for Martin to have at least a good series. Would piss me off no end if he turned into a pumpkin.
 

Auger34

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He's in the convo, but that's hindsight. The question is more interesting/painful when you ask it going forward for a few games.
100% hindsight but, IMO, it’s really not even a convo. He was good on defense and made huge shots the entire series with crazy efficiency.
 

BigSoxFan

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While I don't want Miami to win and don't expect them to win, I'm really rooting for Martin to have at least a good series. Would piss me off no end if he turned into a pumpkin.
It’s morbidly funny that at first I whined about the Celtics not being able to draft Tyler Herro and now I’m whining about his injury, which thrust this Caleb Martin bullshit on us.

In short, I fucking hate Tyler Herro.
 

Auger34

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It’s morbidly funny that at first I whined about the Celtics not being able to draft Tyler Herro and now I’m whining about his injury, which thrust this Caleb Martin bullshit on us.

In short, I fucking hate Tyler Herro.
Jesus, what a great point….

Tyler Herro and Ime are the real enemies here….
 

BaseballJones

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I think Jaylen is a great player but his weaknesses are about the worst you can have in the playoffs. When threes aren't falling, you're down on the scoreboard and you need to drive to draw fouls and get kickouts/ball movement*, you can't be losing the ball on your own...you just can't. It killed them last year against Miami and GS and it obviously killed them last night. Robs momentum and makes everyone have to work harder, and goes into transition defense with everyone running back instead of getting set.

Yeah he can get better but...this was a problem last playoffs and it was worse this year. I dunno.

He's absolutely the kind of player a dumb team wants to be their #1 and they should find that team. I don't think this is overreaction as he was doing the same thing in the Philly series.

*Jaylen also is bad at identifying passing opportunities...too often when he drives he just puts his head down and is never going to pass the ball and the defense knows it.
Miami was able to get Butler and Martin in one on one situations in isolation. Boston didn’t get those opportunities for Brown and Tatum, so whenever they tried to drive there was always someone helping and reaching in. Butler and Martin could just work one on one without worrying too much about help defense getting in the way.

I wonder why it was so easy for Miami to get that but so hard for Boston.
 

Kliq

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Jaylen Brown is significantly more accomplished than Jimmy Butler was at the same age.
 

Cellar-Door

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So I wanted to take some time before commenting on this, I also listened to Lowe's podcast as one of the things featured in the description was "the future of Jaylen Brown".

He brought up the key thing (as did several cap people earlier like Bobby Marks and Keith Smith)... this new CBA is built to try and discourage two supermax guys long term, so you have to be sure when you offer Jaylen the full 295. Marks has suggested they do the Gobert path, of offerring more than other teams but not the full 35% and full raises. I think that is the path forward. Lowe mentioned today he has the impression there isn't much room for negotiation with Brown though and anything less than 295M will not go over well.

He also brought up a key point on-court fit related... Tatum is an pretty good but not great playmaker, Jaylen being your 2nd guy.... is not a good playmaker, noting he was around neutral A/T for his career, negative in the playoffs.

This prompted me to check how he looks against other high usage players...

Of the 33 players with a usage of 27% or higher this season Jaylen ranks.... last in A/TO ratio. The guys who are withing 20% higher than him are: Embiid, Davis, Kuzma, Porzingis, Banchero, Edwards, Johnson (Keldon) and Green (Jalen).

I think just on talent, you should be offerring Jaylen an extension, but not the full $295M. I felt otherwise before hearing more experts talking about how they think the new CBA has real teeth. Jaylen is a talent, but his recurring flaws are both real, and not the ideal fit with Tatum. A player who isn't as good, but a better fit and not making the supermax probably makes you a better team long term.
 

jmcc5400

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Jesus, what a great point….

Tyler Herro and Ime are the real enemies here….
The other "what if," at least to me, is Miami beating Milwaukee. I think all things being equal, the Celtics would have gotten past the Bucks.
 

8slim

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So I wanted to take some time before commenting on this, I also listened to Lowe's podcast as one of the things featured in the description was "the future of Jaylen Brown".

He brought up the key thing (as did several cap people earlier like Bobby Marks and Keith Smith)... this new CBA is built to try and discourage two supermax guys long term, so you have to be sure when you offer Jaylen the full 295. Marks has suggested they do the Gobert path, of offerring more than other teams but not the full 35% and full raises. I think that is the path forward. Lowe mentioned today he has the impression there isn't much room for negotiation with Brown though and anything less than 295M will not go over well.

He also brought up a key point on-court fit related... Tatum is an pretty good but not great playmaker, Jaylen being your 2nd guy.... is not a good playmaker, noting he was around neutral A/T for his career, negative in the playoffs.

This prompted me to check how he looks against other high usage players...

Of the 33 players with a usage of 27% or higher this season Jaylen ranks.... last in A/TO ratio. The guys who are withing 20% higher than him are: Embiid, Davis, Kuzma, Porzingis, Banchero, Edwards, Johnson (Keldon) and Green (Jalen).

I think just on talent, you should be offerring Jaylen an extension, but not the full $295M. I felt otherwise before hearing more experts talking about how they think the new CBA has real teeth. Jaylen is a talent, but his recurring flaws are both real, and not the ideal fit with Tatum. A player who isn't as good, but a better fit and not making the supermax probably makes you a better team long term.
Great post.
 

OurF'ingCity

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So I wanted to take some time before commenting on this, I also listened to Lowe's podcast as one of the things featured in the description was "the future of Jaylen Brown".

He brought up the key thing (as did several cap people earlier like Bobby Marks and Keith Smith)... this new CBA is built to try and discourage two supermax guys long term, so you have to be sure when you offer Jaylen the full 295. Marks has suggested they do the Gobert path, of offerring more than other teams but not the full 35% and full raises. I think that is the path forward. Lowe mentioned today he has the impression there isn't much room for negotiation with Brown though and anything less than 295M will not go over well.

He also brought up a key point on-court fit related... Tatum is an pretty good but not great playmaker, Jaylen being your 2nd guy.... is not a good playmaker, noting he was around neutral A/T for his career, negative in the playoffs.

This prompted me to check how he looks against other high usage players...

Of the 33 players with a usage of 27% or higher this season Jaylen ranks.... last in A/TO ratio. The guys who are withing 20% higher than him are: Embiid, Davis, Kuzma, Porzingis, Banchero, Edwards, Johnson (Keldon) and Green (Jalen).

I think just on talent, you should be offerring Jaylen an extension, but not the full $295M. I felt otherwise before hearing more experts talking about how they think the new CBA has real teeth. Jaylen is a talent, but his recurring flaws are both real, and not the ideal fit with Tatum. A player who isn't as good, but a better fit and not making the supermax probably makes you a better team long term.
100% agree with all of this. The big question is, who is that other player that’s a better fit and is available in trade?
 

Cellar-Door

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100% agree with all of this. The big question is, who is that other player that’s a better fit and is available in trade?
Yeah, this is itself an issue, because it's a cascade thing, nobody better is likely available, so it's more about hunting value assets and maybe shifting around the rest of the roster.

I brought up that I'm a big fan of the Mikal Bridges scenarios, he's not Jaylen on offense (despite that streak during the Nets end of season), but he's a better defender, and he doesn't need the ball as much.. also his turnovers are very low.
In a traded for picks that are re-routed scenario Siakam makes a lot of sense if TOR finally rebuilds (maybe Anunoby and/or FVV as well).
Other guys of some interest that come to mind as parts of a deal are: Markkanen, LaVine, Murray, Ingram.

Then a couple guys who probably can't get but I'd call on: George, Mobley, Wagner.

Have we considered the possibility that Jaylen doesn’t want to be a Celtic long term?
Very much so, that's part of what offerring him an extension for more money than anyone else helps tell you.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Miami was able to get Butler and Martin in one on one situations in isolation. Boston didn’t get those opportunities for Brown and Tatum, so whenever they tried to drive there was always someone helping and reaching in. Butler and Martin could just work one on one without worrying too much about help defense getting in the way.

I wonder why it was so easy for Miami to get that but so hard for Boston.
Because Coach Joe, and Coach Ime and Coach Brad think you MUST set a screen on ball to get into that 1on1. The problem is when you're screener is Marcus or TL, and there is absolutely no threat of an outside shot (or alternatively, you want them shooting), the defender playing the screener just doubles or sticks close to the ball handler.

It's even worse that we constantly were setting screens on ball against a fucking zone. The entire point of the fucking zone is that a screen up top is virtually useless.

Miami on the other hand, would put 4 guys in one corner, and have Jimmy playing by himself 1on1 with a defender. If Jimmy didn't like that matchup, he'd simply point to whoever he wanted to be switched onto, that guy would drag Horford or Al out to him, and because the C's switch everything, he'd end up with Horford, but really important, the guy who set the screen wouldn't stick around with no spacing. They would relocate away, giving Jimmy wide open space to work with against a defender of his choosing...
 

BaseballJones

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Because Coach Joe, and Coach Ime and Coach Brad think you MUST set a screen on ball to get into that 1on1. The problem is when you're screener is Marcus or TL, and there is absolutely no threat of an outside shot (or alternatively, you want them shooting), the defender playing the screener just doubles or sticks close to the ball handler.

It's even worse that we constantly were setting screens on ball against a fucking zone. The entire point of the fucking zone is that a screen up top is virtually useless.

Miami on the other hand, would put 4 guys in one corner, and have Jimmy playing by himself 1on1 with a defender. If Jimmy didn't like that matchup, he'd simply point to whoever he wanted to be switched onto, that guy would drag Horford or Al out to him, and because the C's switch everything, he'd end up with Horford, but really important, the guy who set the screen wouldn't stick around with no spacing. They would relocate away, giving Jimmy wide open space to work with against a defender of his choosing...
Yep. Way too often people make basketball out to be complicated. It's really a very, very simple game. It's not difficult to get the matchup you want and exploit it. It makes me crazy how hard Boston makes it.
 

8slim

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Because Coach Joe, and Coach Ime and Coach Brad think you MUST set a screen on ball to get into that 1on1. The problem is when you're screener is Marcus or TL, and there is absolutely no threat of an outside shot (or alternatively, you want them shooting), the defender playing the screener just doubles or sticks close to the ball handler.

It's even worse that we constantly were setting screens on ball against a fucking zone. The entire point of the fucking zone is that a screen up top is virtually useless.

Miami on the other hand, would put 4 guys in one corner, and have Jimmy playing by himself 1on1 with a defender. If Jimmy didn't like that matchup, he'd simply point to whoever he wanted to be switched onto, that guy would drag Horford or Al out to him, and because the C's switch everything, he'd end up with Horford, but really important, the guy who set the screen wouldn't stick around with no spacing. They would relocate away, giving Jimmy wide open space to work with against a defender of his choosing...
Jim Boeheim has been free for a few months. Brad should’ve called him a couple weeks ago and he’d have shown them how to beat the zone in 10 minutes.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Jim Boeheim has been free for a few months. Brad should’ve called him a couple weeks ago and he’d have shown them how to beat the zone in 10 minutes.
Or more accurately, call the coaches who played AGAINST Syracuse and THEY could show him how to beat the zone.

UGH (on two levels, for me)