Jaylen Brown, The Vet Years

RG33

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I fucking love Jaylen Brown. I’ve had 3 Celtics jerseys in my life, LB, KG, and now JB. He is 25, has come a looooonnnggg way since his rookie year, and is still developing as an NBA player. He is a legit All-Star, arguably a top 25-30 player, and has the make-up to continue to get better. With that said, he does frustrate me at times with his carelessness. The best way I can describe it is what I said to a buddy last night, “it’s like he goes all Cam-Newton-Throwing-It-Into-The-Ground” at times. Some of his mistakes are just god-awful and “obvious” which makes them feel worse — that is my impression at least.

He’s a stud. Without him, the Celtics will win nothing.
 

tims4wins

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Jaylen might be debatable as a strict top 30 guy but you wouldn‘t trade him for a lot of guys on that list because of age, lack of defense, or team construction. So while you might argue he is the 35th player instead of the 25th player I think his trade value is easily within the top 25, maybe as high as 15.

I think Jaylen gets criticized way to much because his mistakes seem unforced. He just loses the dribble or his guy gets open back door. For a guy that plays as many minutes as he does the fact that this happens a couple of times a game is a small price to pay but it is still frustrating.

That being said he is in the top 20 in the playoffs for ppg, threes per game, foul shots per game, and rebounding all while playing good defense.
I think this a good point about pure ranking vs trade value. The same could be said of Tatum. His standing among the top 2-10 or whatever is debatable. But after Giannis and possibly Luka, is there anyone you are straight up trading him for? And for Brown, like you said, while he may rank anywhere from 20-45 in the league, there are at most like 20 guys you’d trade him for straight up, maybe fewer.
 

slamminsammya

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This top 30 versus top 40 distinction is inane - who cares? He is a clear second tier star in the NBA to me. Fine grained ordering is silly since team context matters a ton. He fits in really well with Tatum. He can score. He can defend. He is a technically poor passer, no one is perfect. Sometimes in the game threads (myself included) we get so frustrated we only focus on what people can't do and those become more salient since the good stuff we take for granted.
 

leetinsley38

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And relevant to the thread - Jaylen technically finished 20th in all NBA voting with 3 third place votes (3 points), behind Jimmy Butler (32) in the forward group. Gobert (45), Bam (28), Donovan Mitchell (4) had more.
4th team All NBA!
 

m0ckduck

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I think this a good point about pure ranking vs trade value. The same could be said of Tatum. His standing among the top 2-10 or whatever is debatable. But after Giannis and possibly Luka, is there anyone you are straight up trading him for? And for Brown, like you said, while he may rank anywhere from 20-45 in the league, there are at most like 20 guys you’d trade him for straight up, maybe fewer.
The 20-45 group is an interesting cohort because it contains a mix of former/failed/not-quite #1 guys (e.g. Westbrook, Mitchell, KAT, Beale, etc) along with the best truly complementary players in the league, like Jaylen, Bam, Gobert, Holiday, etc— players who have never been miscast as "the guy" on a winning team, but who are enormously valuable. I think the phenomenon you're pointing to— trade value higher than pure ranking— is prob shared across this group of elite complementary players, since they get dinged a bit for the fact that you can't really squint and imagine them carrying a team on their own. (Granted though, in the case of JB and JT, youth and athletic upside also play a big part).
 
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tims4wins

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The 20-45 group is an interesting cohort because it contains a mix of former/failed/not-quite #1 guys (e.g. Westbrook, Mitchell, KAT, Beale, etc) along with the best truly complementary players in the league, like Jaylen, Bam, Gobert, Holiday, etc— players who have never been miscast as "the guy" on a winning team, but who are enormously valuable. I think phenomenon you're pointing to— trade value higher than pure ranking— is prob shared across this group of elite complementary players, since they get dinged a bit for the fact that you can't really squint and imagine them carrying a team on their own. (Granted though, in the case of JB and JT, youth and athletic upside also play a big part).
It also speaks to the goals of the acquiring team. A contender would want the great 2nd banana. A non-contender would want the “star” eg Mitchell.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I fucking love Jaylen Brown. I’ve had 3 Celtics jerseys in my life, LB, KG, and now JB. He is 25, has come a looooonnnggg way since his rookie year, and is still developing as an NBA player. He is a legit All-Star, arguably a top 25-30 player, and has the make-up to continue to get better. With that said, he does frustrate me at times with his carelessness. The best way I can describe it is what I said to a buddy last night, “it’s like he goes all Cam-Newton-Throwing-It-Into-The-Ground” at times. Some of his mistakes are just god-awful and “obvious” which makes them feel worse — that is my impression at least.

He’s a stud. Without him, the Celtics will win nothing.
It's not carelessness. For whatever reasons - maybe the wrist injury - JB has problems playing in traffic. His handle isn't tight enough right now to do that. It's great for fast breaks; it's good enough when he's one-on-one on the perimeter; and it's fine when he sees a lane and takes it to the hoop. But when he gets into a crowd, he's sometimes a beat slow to make decisions and can turn it over.

Assuming he finishes this season healthy, I suspect it will be better next season as he'll work super hard on it over the off-season.

Faith and hard work (etc.) indeed.
 

Bunt Single

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It seems to me Jaylen Brown has been enormously important to this team this season in not just complementing, but also in filling in for/shoring up Jayson Tatum's role as prime scorer. In JT, Boston has a superstar in the making, but also a player who strikes me (at least) as growing somewhat fitfully into the role. I don't fault Tatum -- the man is young, and the NBA is a brutal arena in which players do (in almost all cases) take years of learning and maturing and development to reach their true potential. And during this period of apprentice-stardom, Tatum has off-nights and stretches of doubt and frustration. In multiple games this year when Tatum has not been "on," Brown has stepped in, scoring and dominating at a star/alpha dog level. IMO, this has taken a fair degree of the pressure off of Tatum.
I don't mean to make Jaylen Brown sound like a mere understudy. He is much more than that. But I do appreciate his role in the grooming of Jayson Tatum -- as well, of course, as that in the role of grooming Jaylen himself.
I guess what I'm trying to say is that these last few seasons I have been appreciating Boston's enviable position of having two rising stars on the team. Game by game, one has taken pressure of the other -- which may prove to have been a key factor in the development of both.
 

BigSoxFan

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It seems to me Jaylen Brown has been enormously important to this team this season in not just complementing, but also in filling in for/shoring up Jayson Tatum's role as prime scorer. In JT, Boston has a superstar in the making, but also a player who strikes me (at least) as growing somewhat fitfully into the role. I don't fault Tatum -- the man is young, and the NBA is a brutal arena in which players do (in almost all cases) take years of learning and maturing and development to reach their true potential. And during this period of apprentice-stardom, Tatum has off-nights and stretches of doubt and frustration. In multiple games this year when Tatum has not been "on," Brown has stepped in, scoring and dominating at a star/alpha dog level. IMO, this has taken a fair degree of the pressure off of Tatum.
I don't mean to make Jaylen Brown sound like a mere understudy. He is much more than that. But I do appreciate his role in the grooming of Jayson Tatum -- as well, of course, as that in the role of grooming Jaylen himself.
I guess what I'm trying to say is that these last few seasons I have been appreciating Boston's enviable position of having two rising stars on the team. Game by game, one has taken pressure of the other -- which may prove to have been a key factor in the development of both.
This is all true. Jaylen has his flaws but he does have games where he shoulders the scoring load, like in Game 3. When Butler is off, the Heat generally don’t have enough. Ditto for Dallas and Luka. The Celtics have the luxury of having 2 guys who can pop off for 30+ any given day. And when they’re both “on” (and TL is healthy), they become very, very tough to beat.
 

benhogan

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The Celtics have the luxury of having 2 guys who can pop off for 30+ any given day. And when they’re both “on” (and TL is healthy), they become very, very tough to beat they are easily the best team in the NBA.
FTFY...pretty much why the thought of trading a 25yr old Jaylen is a non-starter for the Celtics
 

Auger34

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This is all true. Jaylen has his flaws but he does have games where he shoulders the scoring load, like in Game 3. When Butler is off, the Heat generally don’t have enough. Ditto for Dallas and Luka. The Celtics have the luxury of having 2 guys who can pop off for 30+ any given day. And when they’re both “on” (and TL is healthy), they become very, very tough to beat.
I don’t think this is very predictive but Jaylen normally starts off very fast whereas Tatum starts off cold.
the coaching staff obviously knows this so it looks like they let Jaylen cook in the 1st quarter and most of the 2nd then Tatum starts to gradually take control of the offense
 

BigSoxFan

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I don’t think this is very predictive but Jaylen normally starts off very fast whereas Tatum starts off cold.
the coaching staff obviously knows this so it looks like they let Jaylen cook in the 1st quarter and most of the 2nd then Tatum starts to gradually take control of the offense
Yeah, I’ve noticed that too. Tatum doesn’t seem to come out of the gates flying. Is there a way to find scoring by quarter? Quite possible this is just a wrong impression that isn’t supported by data.
 

Kliq

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Jaylen is a streaky scorer (especially with his three point shooting) and IMO it is better to have that kind of player as your second banana on offense; rather than someone who scores 5 points per quarter consistently. The Celtics rely on Brown to carry the offense when Tatum is on the bench, and the team rarely craters thanks to Brown's ability to score like, 10 straight points.
 

RorschachsMask

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Jaylen is a streaky scorer (especially with his three point shooting) and IMO it is better to have that kind of player as your second banana on offense; rather than someone who scores 5 points per quarter consistently. The Celtics rely on Brown to carry the offense when Tatum is on the bench, and the team rarely craters thanks to Brown's ability to score like, 10 straight points.
So my biggest concern with Jaylen was the team has always cratered when Tatum sits, but it’s really the case for most teams when their best guy sits. Celtics have just been an extreme case.

In the regular season, (per CTG) they had a +7.4 net rating, but when Tatum sat it was -4.4 (99th percentile in on/off) In the playoffs, they have a +7.7 net rating, and when Tatum sits, it’s -1.2. Just for comparison sake, their net rating in the playoffs when Jaylen sits is +21.9. Now obviously short sample, it’s a little less than 300 possessions, a little less than 3 games worth of minutes.

One change I’ve made in my outlook towards Jaylen is I just don’t blame him for this. He’s very good at what he’s good at, but he’s just not a guy to carry an offense unless he’s on fire. I think a big part of the Derrick White trade (big picture wise) was to give them another reliable ball handler/creator to bring out the best in Jaylen. Pritchard/Tatum and Jaylen/White are pairings that I bet we see a ton of next season.
 
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bakahump

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I agree with everything else said in this thread. From "Wouldnt trade him for anyone but a TRUE SUPERSTAR" (and that wont happen straight up). To "He starts hot while JT usually lets the game kinda find him".

I do wish he would hit the first FT of the game more often. ;)
 

chilidawg

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Yeah, I’ve noticed that too. Tatum doesn’t seem to come out of the gates flying. Is there a way to find scoring by quarter? Quite possible this is just a wrong impression that isn’t supported by data.
Jaylen is at 7.4 pts, 52/44/78 shooting in the first. Tatum 6.0 pts 46/36/86. So something to your supposition, but it's not huge.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/traditional/?sort=PTS&dir=-1&Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular Season&Period=1&TeamID=1610612738
 

Spelunker

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It's not carelessness. For whatever reasons - maybe the wrist injury - JB has problems playing in traffic. His handle isn't tight enough right now to do that. It's great for fast breaks; it's good enough when he's one-on-one on the perimeter; and it's fine when he sees a lane and takes it to the hoop. But when he gets into a crowd, he's sometimes a beat slow to make decisions and can turn it over.

Assuming he finishes this season healthy, I suspect it will be better next season as he'll work super hard on it over the off-season.

Faith and hard work (etc.) indeed.
Right. Especially now with potential wrist issues I'd love to see the team do more work with him off-ball, getting it to him as a cutter rather than a creator. His issues with the latter have been pretty obvious, but when he's doing work without the ball in his hands, and receiving it on a cut to the basket, it highlights his strengths and mitigates his weaknesses.
 

sezwho

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ManicCompression

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2nd thanks. I also wondered what to make of my perception their energy levels seeming almost opposite in Q1. They were right...a little.
Curious if this is Tatum being a good teammate and trying to get other players going early in the game because he can turn it on later when needed.
 

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This is all true. Jaylen has his flaws but he does have games where he shoulders the scoring load, like in Game 3. When Butler is off, the Heat generally don’t have enough. Ditto for Dallas and Luka. The Celtics have the luxury of having 2 guys who can pop off for 30+ any given day. And when they’re both “on” (and TL is healthy), they become very, very tough to beat.
According to statmuse.com, Jaylen was tied for 15th in the league (with Zach LaVine) for most games of 30 or more points scored. Tatum finished 5th.

But no "second banana" had more than Jaylen.
 

Jimbodandy

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Kliq

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Jaylen shook off a incredibly dismal first half to have a killer second half to lead the team to victory; raining threes and punctuating it with a monster jam in traffic. We've seen so many "star" NBA players have rotten games and allow that to get in their head; but Jaylen reminds me a bit of Giannis in that he can do some really embarrassing stuff on one possession, and shake it off and play well. No negative play lingers with him; and we delivered tonight despite an almost hilarious amount of misfortune in the first quarter.
 

Mloaf71

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Does Jaylen get the inaugural Larry Bird Trophy if they win Friday?
 

RorschachsMask

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Does Jaylen get the inaugural Larry Bird Trophy if they win Friday?
Will come down to how guys play in the last game.

Jaylen averaging 25/8/2 on a 60% TS this series, Tatum averaging 24/9/6 on a 59% TS, Al averaging 15/9/4 with 3 blocks a game,and a 77% TS lol.
 

bellowthecat

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benhogan

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I think I vote Al.
It should be Al Horford, but they'll probably give it to the media's favorite son (Tatum)

Brown is an assassin when he just limits himself to spot-up/step in 3-pointers, straight-line drives vs. single coverage, pulls up for mid-range 2s when encountering multiple defenders or immediately moves the ball.

The next time he goes into dribble fest/ISO coma mode up top vs. multiple defenders I hope IME just calls timeout.
 

Kliq

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I feel like that Jaylen dunk really emphasized the magnitude of the turnaround in the second half. It was the last thing I was expecting in a game like this and it capped off a fantastic stretch from him. Short memory indeed. They got him a ton of spot up shots to start the third quarter and he took off from there.

View: https://twitter.com/espn/status/1529656915860418560

View: https://twitter.com/Ballislife/status/1529665705842552832
The Celtics bench has an incredible collection of just NBA stiffs that never play. Malik Fitts, Matt Ryan, Nik Stauskas, Luke Kornet, Sam Hauser, Juwaun Morgan; all these guys literally might get rings this year.
 

RSN Diaspora

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The Celtics bench has an incredible collection of just NBA stiffs that never play. Malik Fitts, Matt Ryan, Nik Stauskas, Luke Kornet, Sam Hauser, Juwaun Morgan; all these guys literally might get rings this year.
So too would Joe Johnson, which is wild. Tony Delk, alas, would not get a ring.

Back to Jaylen, this needs to be a poster:

51900
 

HomeRunBaker

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Will come down to how guys play in the last game.

Jaylen averaging 25/8/2 on a 60% TS this series, Tatum averaging 24/9/6 on a 59% TS, Al averaging 15/9/4 with 3 blocks a game,and a 77% TS lol.
It’s going to be down to Tatum and Jaylen. Media is voting so edge goes to Tatum. If you want to argue that the two most important players to their respective teams are Herro and TL I’d be a willing listener to that argument.
 

chilidawg

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It’s going to be down to Tatum and Jaylen. Media is voting so edge goes to Tatum. If you want to argue that the two most important players to their respective teams are Herro and TL I’d be a willing listener to that argument.
Herro is a team worst -8.0 Net Rating in the playoffs. Worst on the team!

TL has been great when he's available, but the C's are 5-2 in the playoffs without him, and he's only playing 21 mpg when he is available.
 

Kliq

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Herro can score off the dribble, which is of critical need for Miami. However he isn't that efficient, and a poor defender that gives the Celtics an easy target on offense. I think he is a neutral asset at this point for Miami, and his absence makes little difference.
 

Devizier

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From what I've seen of Herro on the court, he definitely demands attention and opens things up for Miami. I get a little nervous as a C's fan when he's in.

But when he's bad, he's really fucking bad. I guess that's true of any one-way player, of which Miami has a number.
 

Jimbodandy

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It should be Al Horford, but they'll probably give it to the media's favorite son (Tatum)

Brown is an assassin when he just limits himself to spot-up/step in 3-pointers, straight-line drives vs. single coverage, pulls up for mid-range 2s when encountering multiple defenders or immediately moves the ball.

The next time he goes into dribble fest/ISO coma mode up top vs. multiple defenders I hope IME just calls timeout.
Yeah I was shaking my head as much as anyone after he barreled into a crowd four times for turnovers in Q1.

And at the end of 40 minutes, he had four turnovers. So someone figured out something.
 

benhogan

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Yeah I was shaking my head as much as anyone after he barreled into a crowd four times for turnovers in Q1.

And at the end of 40 minutes, he had four turnovers. So someone figured out something.
He shelved the spin moves, driving into traffic & dribbling into seams, after Q1

He's so freaking good/high level at spot-up/deep 3s + straight-line drives + mid-range jumpers from the nail he doesn't need to do anything else to be All-NBA. Which is where he is going by next season, he definitely figured something out last night.
 

dhellers

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I think this a good point about pure ranking vs trade value. The same could be said of Tatum. His standing among the top 2-10 or whatever is debatable. But after Giannis and possibly Luka, is there anyone you are straight up trading him for? And for Brown, like you said, while he may rank anywhere from 20-45 in the league, there are at most like 20 guys you’d trade him for straight up, maybe fewer.
1) Why does everyone forget how good 2 time MVP Jokic is?
2) JB's dunk was preceded by a howTheFDidTheyMissThat Bam moving screen. So a make up call was due. Perhaps Bam knew there was no point in trying for a legit block
3) MVP ... Al by a furlong. No bad games, clutch moments galore, was best player for extended stretches.
 
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Jimbodandy

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He shelved the spin moves, driving into traffic & dribbling into seams, after Q1

He's so freaking good/high level at spot-up/deep 3s + straight-line drives + mid-range jumpers from the nail he doesn't need to do anything else to be All-NBA. Which is where he is going by next season, he definitely figured something out last night.
You wrote upthread about "straight-line drives vs. single coverage", and it's perfectly put.

It's not that he can't get around even a guy like Oladipo. He can. But when he gets half a step past guy 1, and guy 2 is just poaching at his handle from 2 feet away, it's a formula for bad things. Tatum sometimes gets away with it because he clears out so much space with his shoulders and can keep the ball very low with his long arms or very high with his height. Plus Miami has a bunch of hawkish guys up top in Butler, VO, and a few others.

I got sat once for sneaking through the top of a 2-3. Coach said that just because it worked once doesn't mean that it's a good idea. I tried it again and got stripped and tripped (no call because "don't get stripped first"). Even after years in the league and like 15 playing high-level ball, these guys still learn new shit.