Jaylen Brown, The Vet Years

[Cesar Crespo]

New threads are good and the only Jaylen Brown thread I see for this year is related to his health.

Usually, players like Jaylen don't do well in the NBA. He came in very robotic and with terrible steal/block numbers at the college level. He's come a long way since his rookie year and turned into a much better player than I ever envisioned. He made 2 distinct leaps. Those players almost always end up all stars. After the 18/19 season, you can probably find me on here saying I'd prefer Buddy Hield. I had questions about Jaylen's 3 point shot which he quickly squashed his first 3 years. Most of his improvement his first 3 years was also due to usage, though not all. I thought, cool, he's going to be an average 3 point shooter and a 3rd/4th scoring option with good D. A 3 and D player. Someone comparable to Otto Porter but wouldn't get paid close to the same amount. Then he made his first leap, and another one the year after. The last 3 years (this year included), he's 318-813 from 3, .391. He also shot .395 from 3 in his 2nd year. For his career, he's up to .379. He's a great athlete and has the tools necessary to play D but he has slipped there over the years. He also evolved into a Robin, and a Robin that is easy to build around. He's an alpha scorer and a threat to go .500/.400/.800 on any given year. And this is with real volume. His TS% since he came into the league: .539, .562, .547, .583, .586, .606. The jump this year is remarkable considering the league is down at .549, down from .572 last year. It also stops a trend of TS% improving every single year since 2014/15.

Now at age 25, I think any improvement Brown makes will be incremental. I could see more than incremental growth in playmaking but only because Brown is a meh playmaker.

In the early going this year, he's shown continued growth in FT shooting. He's 36/45, .800. While that's a SSS, he's made some decent strides as a FT shooter. He's also getting to the line more per 36 than any other year. His FTr has also rebounded a bit from last year. There were times I was worried his FT shooting would be a problem, even after I thought his 3 point shooting wouldn't be. Interestingly, Jaylen is up to a career .703 at the FT line, but during the playoffs, he's at .745.

I mostly wanted to highlight Jaylen's improvement at the FT line but thought making a new thread about Jaylen Brown just for that was weak so I added some content.

Ultimately, Brown is a top 20-30 player and might have a season or two on the All NBA 3rd team. I see that as his absolute peak. All NBA 3rd team.

 

[dhellers]

My concerns about Jaylen are his durability. He doesn't seem to be able to stay sharp for more than a few weeks at a time. And I don't see this changing this season -- when he started he wasn't 100%, and this has diminished over time (will he get a healthy hammie without 2 months off).

Otherwise, he is a great core player. But 'otherwise' might be wishful thinking.

Maybe if he focused on scoring (when he is on he is Gervin like in his repertoire), and avoided hard moves that weaken his legs. That kind of stylistic change would be difficult.

 

[TripleOT]

Jaylen could use some TB12 style conditioning. When he has his legs 100%, he has Dominique style burst. When he doesn’t’, he’s a plus shooting wing with some decent size and athleticism

 

[benhogan]

moved this over from the Knicks thread

I’m all for dealing him for the right player. I don’t feel he and Tatum bring out the best in each other and that’s what you need from your top two players. They are redundant in so many ways. Spurs for my binky Dejounte and KJ?

In addition to the Tatum redundancy, IME's system stresses 2 elements:
1. switch/help defense
2. ball movement

Those are the two weakest parts of Jaylen's game.

PBS should try real hard at the deadline to add a #1 ballhandler (w/out moving JB)
but I'd consider these 3 Brown options:
1. SGA + a 1st
2. Murray + KJ
3. Haliburton + Barnes

 

[Jimbodandy]

moved this over from the Knicks thread


In addition to the Tatum redundancy, IME's system stresses 2 elements:
1. switch/help defense
2. ball movement

Those are the two weakest parts of Jaylen's game.

PBS should try real hard at the deadline to add a #1 ballhandler (w/out moving JB)
but I'd consider these 3 Brown options:
1. SGA + a 1st
2. Murray + KJ
3. Haliburton + Barnes

You're encouraging him.

The best player in your post is JB. I'm trying to understand why we want a deal in the NBA where the best player is outbound.

If we're rebuilding, then fine. Brad should Pitino this shit and have a bunch of guys going out for kidz and picks (and dead weight).

 

[benhogan]

You're encouraging him.

The best player in your post is JB. I'm trying to understand why we want a deal in the NBA where the best player is outbound.

If we're rebuilding, then fine. Brad should Pitino this shit and have a bunch of guys going out for kidz and picks (and dead weight).

in the words of PBS: Jaylen, on this current Celtic team, isn't the best version of himself.

A lot of it comes down to what your opinion of Brown's defense is and what it can be. I've been down on JB's defense for years, He's a really good on-ball defender. BUT unfortunately, he rarely helps, gets beat backdoor, & is weak under the rim. His defense isn't getting any better, it has been the same batch of miscues for numerous seasons (its not an effort thing)

Asking him to distribute isn't going to work, it's going to lead to TOs and transition points for the opponent. His natural instinct is to take the challenged fadeaway in the lane and not pass the ball for an open Corner3. But I'm sure he'll try

He's an A+ scorer/microwave and 90% chance the Celtics retain him. BUT they need to add a ballhandler (not getting Lonzo was a whiff) at the trade deadline or this summer.

I like the Sac deal the best. Barnes does a lot of what Brown does & Haliburton will be SGA by the 2023 playoffs IMO

 

[Jimbodandy]

in the words of PBS: Jaylen, on this current Celtic team, isn't the best version of himself.

A lot of it comes down to what your opinion of Brown's defense is and what it can be. I've been down on JB's defense for years, He's a really good on-ball defender. BUT unfortunately, he rarely helps, gets beat backdoor, & is weak under the rim. His defense isn't getting any better, it has been the same batch of miscues for numerous seasons (its not an effort thing)

Asking him to distribute isn't going to work, it's going to lead to TOs and transition points for the opponent. His natural instinct is to take the challenged fadeaway in the lane and not pass the ball for an open Corner3. But I'm sure he'll try

He's an A+ scorer/microwave and 90% chance the Celtics retain him. BUT they need to add a ballhandler (not getting Lonzo was a whiff) at the trade deadline or this summer.

I like the Sac deal the best. Barnes does a lot of what Brown does & Haliburton will be SGA by the 2023 playoffs IMO

I remain unconvinced.

We're talking about trading for guys who do most of what Brown does plus a guy who might be X someday. The Beal or Lillard trades I get. Even the KAT trade idea I get. Beal and Lillard are even better scorers, and KAT plays a different position altogether. I wouldn't do any of those, but I get it.

I keep coming back to this: It's the NBA. You don't trade the best player in the deal without a compelling reason, like his shooting out of town or a rebuild or whatever. Hell in other threads, people are speculating about consolidation deals. That's what you do when you're trying to win, not liquidation deals.

And this Brown and Tatum can't play together nonsense is groundless talk show noise.

I'll try to stfu on this, since a lot of people seem to have made their mind up on this thing. But it reeks of do-somethingism to me.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

And this Brown and Tatum can't play together nonsense is groundless talk show noise.

Thanksgiving Dinner at your house next year is going to have more drama than I originally expected.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Thanksgiving Dinner at your house next year is going to have more drama than I originally expected.

Hahahaha.

Don't forget my box of poo promise.

 

[benhogan]

I'll try to stfu on this, since a lot of people seem to have made their mind up on this thing. But it reeks of do-somethingism to me.

2 and 3 days off always bring about the best fake trades

JB most likely stays, but we'll see how December plays out. Trade deadline is going to be busy this year

 

[Van Everyman]

I’m on Team @Jimbodandy

 

[Devizier]

My biggest concern with Jaylen is that he's played <60 games the last two seasons and is likely to do that this year as well. He hasn't been healthy for a number of the games that he has played and at some point this becomes just part of the package. That's where trade considerations come in, but other teams can obviously see this as well.

I do agree (eye test) with the fit concerns with Tatum, although I don't have any solid evidence to back that up. If the Celtics had an initiator/playmaker I think those concerns magically disappear.

 

[benhogan]

I’m on Team @Jimbodandy

That just may get you an invite to the Dandy's Thanksgiving basketball roundtable but the turkey is dry, the cranberry sauce is from the can and the pumpkin pie is store-bought.

Happy Holidays to all!

 

[Cesar Crespo]

My biggest concern with Jaylen is that he's played <60 games the last two seasons and is likely to do that this year as well. He hasn't been healthy for a number of the games that he has played and at some point this becomes just part of the package. That's where trade considerations come in, but other teams can obviously see this as well.

I do agree (eye test) with the fit concerns with Tatum, although I don't have any solid evidence to back that up. If the Celtics had an initiator/playmaker I think those concerns magically disappear.

And why is he unlikely to play more than 60 games this year? Do you think he's going to suffer another injury? Also, 19/20 and 20/21 only had 72 game seasons, not 82.

The fact he played less than 60 both those years means considerably less than you are making it.

 

[benhogan]

And why is he unlikely to play more than 60 games this year? Do you think he's going to suffer another injury? Also, 19/20 and 20/21 only had 72 game seasons, not 82.

The fact he played less than 60 both those years means considerably less than you are making it.

I think his point was he plays a lot of games banged up (maybe JB should get credit for that).

BUT I highly doubt his value to the Celtics or the league is getting dinged due to "Jaylen's health concerns". I'd think the view would be an exceptional athlete that takes his conditioning very seriously.

JB has also played summer hoops for Team USA, and played late into the Summer of 2020 (Orlando bubble). Brown should get credit for that.

 

[Jimbodandy]

That just may get you an invite to the Dandy's Thanksgiving basketball roundtable but the turkey is dry, the cranberry sauce is from the can and the pumpkin pie is store-bought.

Happy Holidays to all!

Lol all of this is true. And half of the turkey is vegetarian substitute.

 

[luckiestman]

I keep reading this thread title and wondering if there is going to be a Reality TV show where Jaylen leaves the team for a few years to work at an animal hospital. I’m picturing in my mind that it’s very similar to ER.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I keep reading this thread title and wondering if there is going to be a Reality TV show where Jaylen leaves the team for a few years to work at an animal hospital. I’m picturing in my mind that it’s very similar to ER.

Heh, I named it after Saved By the Bell: The College Years.

I could totally see Jaylen Brown as a vet post retirement though.

 

[radsoxfan]

I suppose this is a bit of good news/bad news but I found the Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum DARKO comparison interesting when I looked during the Cavs game. JB has not been too popular with some of the advanced metrics but has been rising recently. JB now rates slightly higher than JT, though of course there is a 2 year age difference. Also, both have nearly identical "true 3 PT%" around 37%.

Tatum unfortunately has had a disappointing run over the last 2 years, primarily defense related. He has some excuses re: Covid so hopefully he gets back on his previous trajectory.

 

[chilidawg]

Lebron: Tatum 2.70, Brown 0.2
Raptor: Tatum 4.70, Brown 1.3
On/Off +/-: Tatum 10.6, Brown 8.5 (both excellent)
BPM: Brown 2.7, Tatum 2.4

 

[Jimbodandy]

Lebron: Tatum 2.70, Brown 0.2
Raptor: Tatum 4.70, Brown 1.3
On/Off +/-: Tatum 10.6, Brown 8.5 (both excellent)
BPM: Brown 2.7, Tatum 2.4

 

[radsoxfan]

Thanks for the follow up guys.

I'm actually in the "build around both of them camp" but I do find the comparison interesting.

Hypothetically if there were to be a break up (especially given my presumption that Tatum would fetch far more in a trade), maybe we should be keeping Jaylen.

 

[RorschachsMask]

Thanks for the follow up guys.

I'm actually in the "build around both of them camp" but I do find the comparison interesting.

Hypothetically if there were to be a break up (especially given my presumption that Tatum would fetch far more in a trade), maybe we should be keeping Jaylen.

But then you lack the top end talent to compete. You won’t get a better better or similar to Tatum, so then your best player is a top 25-30ish guy in Jaylen. That doesn’t even take into account that Tatum is incredibly durable, while Jaylen is not. Trading JT only makes sense if you want to go nuclear and blow it up, which I’m all set with.

Here’s where they both stand with some of the advanced stats, below. EPM is 3.2 for Tatum, and 2.4 for Jaylen, as well.

 

[radsoxfan]

But then you lack the top end talent to compete.

I'm not saying DARKO is gospel but my point is that their talent level is potentially more similar than we want to think?

What if trading Tatum is off the table because we want to keep our "top end talent", but he isn't actually our best player?

 

[chilidawg]

Thanks for the follow up guys.

I'm actually in the "build around both of them camp" but I do find the comparison interesting.

Hypothetically if there were to be a break up (especially given my presumption that Tatum would fetch far more in a trade), maybe we should be keeping Jaylen.

I've always been more of Jaylen fan than Tatum, but that has more to do with style than effectiveness. It's hard to argue that Tatum hasn't been the more effective player though. Interesting to see that Darko is suggesting that may be changing.

I'm still in the build with them camp too, I just don't see what you'd get for either one that would make them worth it.

 

[radsoxfan]

I've always been more of Jaylen fan than Tatum, but that has more to do with style than effectiveness. It's hard to argue that Tatum hasn't been the more effective player though. Interesting to see that Darko is suggesting that may be changing.

I'm still in the build with them camp too, I just don't see what you'd get for either one that would make them worth it.

Interestingly, it's really been Tatum's D that has led to the decline on DARKO and let Brown overtake him overall.

DARKO has never liked Jaylen's D, but Tatum is now even worse. A massive collapse for him recently.

 

[RorschachsMask]

I'm not saying DARKO is gospel but my point is that their talent level is potentially more similar than we want to think?

What if trading Tatum is off the table because we want to keep our "top end talent", but he isn't actually our best player?

Sure, DARKO has them pretty similar this year, with Tatum’s shot all over the place. But LEBRON, RAPTOR, RAPM, and EPM all show Tatum as the far superior player this season. Those along with DARKO are considered the top 5 free advanced stats, according to that hoopshype article where nba execs ranked them.

I just think basing an opinion off of one advanced stat is questionable, especially when the rest of them show Tatum as the much more effective player.

Between the consensus of advanced stats, and that other teams game plans are built entirely around slowing down Tatum, I think it’s safe to say he’s clearly the better player. Context needs to be taken into account, Jaylen has the luxury of playing off of Tatum, going against secondary defenders, and pretty much always going 1 on 1.

Even in a serious down year for Tatum shooting the ball, he’s still grading out as elite almost across the board with advanced stats.

 

[radsoxfan]

Sure, DARKO has them pretty similar this year, with Tatum’s shot all over the place.

The DARKO graphs are a career trajectory, not simply based on this season.

Nevertheless, I'm not trying to say that's the only thing to look at. Mostly just pointing out I was surprised at how close they were when I looked. And Jaylen is above Tatum in some of the others as well. Food for thought to me, that's all.

I would still choose Tatum in a vacuum if I had to pick one (especially given age and the fact that we have a logical reason to hope for a rebound on D), but perhaps it's closer than some of us think.

 

[RorschachsMask]

The DARKO graphs are a career trajectory, not simply based on this season.

Nevertheless, I'm not trying to say that's the only thing to look at. Mostly just pointing out I was surprised at how close they were when I looked. And Jaylen is above Tatum in some of the others as well. Food for thought to me, that's all.

I would still choose Tatum in a vacuum if I had to pick one (especially given age and the fact that we have a logical reason to hope for a rebound on D), but perhaps it's closer than some of us think.

Yeah I’m not arguing really, even if it sounds like it lol, just posting the stats. Jaylen has the better DARKO and BPM, Tatum has an edge everywhere else.

I’m all about food for thought, too many people agreeing is boring. But even now, Tatum is playing like a top 15-20 guy, Jaylen still in the 25-30 range. When you take age, durability, talent, and projectability into account….it’s still a no brainer to me. But opinions are exactly that.

 

[radsoxfan]

But even now, Tatum is playing like a top 15-20 guy, Jaylen still in the 25-30 range.

That's about where I would put them too.

Part of the reason for the relatively small gap is that Tatum has been a moderate disappointment recently, relative to his previous trajectory/expectations. I am happy to see Jaylen performing so well in many of the metrics, he was oddly low in some of them for awhile and it was a little confusing since many around here (myself included) like his overall game.

Tatum still has all the tools and is only 23, I wouldn't trade him (or Jaylen) if I had it my way.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Yeah I’m not arguing really, even if it sounds like it lol, just posting the stats. Jaylen has the better DARKO and BPM, Tatum has an edge everywhere else.

I’m all about food for thought, too many people agreeing is boring. But even now, Tatum is playing like a top 15-20 guy, Jaylen still in the 25-30 range. When you take age, durability, talent, and projectability into account….it’s still a no brainer to me. But opinions are exactly that.

Yeah I'm the biggest Jaylen stan that there is, but JT is unmovable. I wouldn't move either, but JT is truly unmovable. The length alone allows him to do things that a handful of players on the planet can do. He has a Durant unblockable shot.

He gets in his head sometimes, things get off. His shooting now, the calls that he isn't getting at the rim...it eats at him. Jaylen's game being a bit more mechanical probably helps him there.

Right now JB is playing better ball, but look at their body of work.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

By Quarter
1st .506/.435 59.0% EFG% 61.9% TS%
2nd .431/.358, 51.4% EFF% 55.0 TS%, 51.4% TS%
3rd .485/.353 55.6% EFG% 59.7 TS%,
4th .391/.255 43.5% EFF% 48.0% TS%

And the 4th quarter is killing Jaylen Brown.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

minutes
8.8
8.2
9.5
7.5

So our 2nd star is playing the least amount of minutes in the 4th and in those minutes has sucked out loud.

That's probably the cause of a lot of Celtic problems right there.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Could also be this

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Could also be this

Yeah, I posted Tatum's in the Tatum thread. He's been ass in the 2nd quarter but his numbers in the 2nd half might surprise you.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Yeah, I posted Tatum's in the Tatum thread. He's been ass in the 2nd quarter but his numbers in the 2nd half might surprise you.

Fair to criticize JB for his 4Q numbers. I think overall the beginning, middle, and end of our problems at the moment are the guy leading the NBA in missed field goals by a large margin. If Tatum was even shooting league average from 3, this team would be fighting to stay out of the play-in not to stay in it.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Fair to criticize JB for his 4Q numbers. I think overall the beginning, middle, and end of our problems at the moment are the guy leading the NBA in missed field goals by a large margin. If Tatum was even shooting league average from 3, this team would be fighting to stay out of the play-in not to stay in it.

If Tatum was hitting 3s at the league average rate, he still leads the league in missed FG by 22 fwiw. It's 13 more 3s.

Probably good for a few more wins though. If he was hitting them at the .396 career rate going into the year... heh. His career rate right now is .380. For comparison sake, Jaylen came in this year shooting 3s at a .378 rate. He's hitting them at .358 this year, causing his career rate to go down to .375. It's possible Jaylen Brown will have a better career 3 point % sometime this season than Tatum. Could even be pretty soon. Who would have thought that coming into the year?

Doesn't help Jaylen has been particularly bad over the last 5 from 3 (14/38) to coincide with Tatum's skid, either. 14/38 is typical noise though. Career 3 point % race, something to watch I guess.

 

[Fishy1]

Jaylen now with a positive AST/TO ratio (barely) as his three point shooting is slipping. 44 assists to 31 turnovers this month. He's had months like this before -- a couple last year.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Jaylen now with a positive AST/TO ratio (barely) as his three point shooting is slipping. 44 assists to 31 turnovers this month. He's had months like this before -- a couple last year.

38 assists/18 TO in his last 8 games. .455/.350/.844, 23.5 points, 7.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.0 steals, 2.3 TO.

Been shooting awful from 3 the last 5. Prior to that he was at .381 for the year.

 

[Fishy1]

38 assists/18 TO in his last 8 games. .455/.350/.844, 23.5 points, 7.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.0 steals, 2.3 TO.

Been shooting awful from 3 the last 5. Prior to that he was at .381 for the year.

A pretty good month by his standards. Of course his problem as a playmaker and defender is largely consistency. He has months where he is almost entirely incapable of making a play for another guy. We'll see if he ever adds that consistency to his game. This year, he began with just 26 assists in his first twelve games.

It's frustrating. He's such a terrific one-on-one scorer. He flashes good defense and occasionally makes a tough pass, and... sometimes he looks like a goon driving into ridiculous traffic or loses, in the corner, a guy whose only offensive skill is shooting three pointers from the corner. But he's made such strides from being a mechanical one-on-one player that I wouldn't put it past him to make another significant step.

 

[Lazy vs Crazy]

https://heavy.com/sports/boston-celtics/jaylen-brown-trade-rumor-nba-draft/

Steve Bulpett, who was plugged in in the Ainge years but may not be any longer, is reporting Jaylen may ask out if the team doesn't figure it out:

Multiple sources have told Heavy.com that, absent the team getting its act together and playing more to its potential, Brown could be the one to acknowledge that the mix isn’t right and seek a move.

Hopefully Wyc is listening and doesn't shed money at the expense of wins going forward. Jaylen asking out will kill his trade value and there is no way you get a good return on that. Or he decides more quickly and the Celtics get Simmons+ for him.

 

[mcpickl]

Hot clickbait from Bulpett at his new home

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Brown is older and has 2 years left after this one. Tatum has 3 years and an option left after this one. That is probably why Brown is more likely to bail sooner.

I don't think the Celtics need to worry about Brown losing value because teams know he wants out. He's Jaylen Brown. A known (and very good) commodity as a player and a good person off the court. There will be enough teams that want him that a deal can happen. But it is just in the nature of these deals that the acquiring team probably wins the exchange.

Though maybe we get Brown for Beal thing.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Hot clickbait from Bulpett at his new home

What an empty piece.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I mean, Brown would be the obvious one to ask out... Tautm is a superstar, it's his team. Brown is the guy who could maybe get his own team if he left.

Either way, it's obvious clickbait with all those qualifiers.

I will say, much as I enjoy Jaylen, there are guys I would trade him for (not Beal).

 

[nighthob]

Hopefully Wyc is listening and doesn't shed money at the expense of wins going forward. Jaylen asking out will kill his trade value and there is no way you get a good return on that. Or he decides more quickly and the Celtics get Simmons+ for him.

If they decide to move the last two years of Brown they'll get good value from teams needing a scorer. Never fear.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Who posted the image of Jaylen and Simmons wearing opposite uniforms a few weeks ago?

 

[Bleedred]

Cross Posting from another thread:

I'm a stat guy in that I believe that the metrics to evaluate players are an absolute must in today's NBA. I'm not a stat guy, in that I don't understand them on a very detailed level, I just take on faith what those who do understand them to provide a snapshot for me on what they mean and how they project a certain player/evaluate him.

Here's my question. What do the defensive metrics say about Jaylen Brown as a defender? I ask because I suspect he's rated high, but I think he's really lazy on defense and gives a fake effort way too often. When committed to defending and giving that effort, he's very good, but he doesn't give that effort nearly enough IMO.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Cross Posting from another thread:

I'm a stat guy in that I believe that the metrics to evaluate players are an absolute must in today's NBA. I'm not a stat guy, in that I don't understand them on a very detailed level, I just take on faith what those who do understand them to provide a snapshot for me on what they mean and how they project a certain player/evaluate him.

Here's my question. What do the defensive metrics say about Jaylen Brown as a defender? I ask because I suspect he's rated high, but I think he's really lazy on defense and gives a fake effort way too often. When committed to defending and giving that effort, he's very good, but he doesn't give that effort nearly enough IMO.

Depends which ones.
For all in ones.... some say he's very good, some say he's average.
More detailed data that isn't publicly available, but which media often buy subscriptions to say he's very good on-ball and bad off-ball, which is what I would expect, because he is good on ball and he's terrible off ball.

 

[Bleedred]

Depends which ones.
For all in ones.... some say he's very good, some say he's average.
More detailed data that isn't publicly available, but which media often buy subscriptions to say he's very good on-ball and bad off-ball, which is what I would expect, because he is good on ball and he's terrible off ball.

Good distinction. He is absolutely terrible off the ball, falls asleep, floats with no real purpose. He's much better on-ball, but he makes half-hearted efforts to get over screens.