Jaylen Brown, The Vet Years

Cesar Crespo

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Not the best shooting night last night but for a player averaging 22.9 points, 7.1 rebounds, 3.4 assists/2.8 TO, 1.3 steals on .480/.381/.744 shooting this playoffs, he takes a lot of flack.

I didn't see the game thread yesterday so I'm not sure how it looked. I'm guessing it was ok giving the big lead.

I *kind of* get the hate, but I think it's more focusing on what Jaylen can't do rather than what he can. While I'd like him to be better than he is, he's already a top 20-30 player and is an incredibly effective scorer. The C's would struggle without him.
 

Kliq

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Not the best shooting night last night but for a player averaging 22.9 points, 7.1 rebounds, 3.4 assists/2.8 TO, 1.3 steals on .480/.381/.744 shooting this playoffs, he takes a lot of flack.

I didn't see the game thread yesterday so I'm not sure how it looked. I'm guessing it was ok giving the big lead.

I *kind of* get the hate, but I think it's more focusing on what Jaylen can't do rather than what he can. While I'd like him to be better than he is, he's already a top 20-30 player and is an incredibly effective scorer. The C's would struggle without him.
Agreed. Last night Brown's jumper wasn't falling; but the baskets he did make tended to be strong takes to the basket where he absorbed contact and muscled in shots at the rim. They were difficult shots; the kind of shots you need your best players to make in the playoffs when there isn't great offense going on.

Brown is an excellent second best player at the moment. He can create his own shot, and score at all three levels. He is a strong defender (with some noted weaknesses on that end) and an overwhelming athlete that can exploit mismatches. He has had a knack for carrying the offense during stretches where Tatum has struggled, or is on the bench. He has consistently improved every year in the league. He's on a cheap contract relative to his production. He appears to be admirable person off the court.
 

Auger34

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Not the best shooting night last night but for a player averaging 22.9 points, 7.1 rebounds, 3.4 assists/2.8 TO, 1.3 steals on .480/.381/.744 shooting this playoffs, he takes a lot of flack.

I didn't see the game thread yesterday so I'm not sure how it looked. I'm guessing it was ok giving the big lead.

I *kind of* get the hate, but I think it's more focusing on what Jaylen can't do rather than what he can. While I'd like him to be better than he is, he's already a top 20-30 player and is an incredibly effective scorer. The C's would struggle without him.
I get thinking he’s not as good as he is. The ball handling can be unbearable to watch and he can rely on his athleticism too much and not have an actual plan with the ball…

But the hate and the rush to blame him for basically everything is incredibly weird and I honestly don’t understand it at all. He’s a very good player who puts the work in and is improving every year.

As you said, he’s a top 25-30 player who is 25 years old. He needs to be appreciated more
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I get thinking he’s not as good as he is. The ball handling can be unbearable to watch and he can rely on his athleticism too much and not have an actual plan with the ball…

But the hate and the rush to blame him for basically everything is incredibly weird and I honestly don’t understand it at all. He’s a very good player who puts the work in and is improving every year.

As you said, he’s a top 25-30 player who is 25 years old. He needs to be appreciated more
The funny part about the JB criticisms is that if someone had come from the future when JB was drafted and said, "He's going to be a top-30 player," we all would have been jumping for joy. Now he's a top-30 player who has gotten better almost every year, and people are like, "Let's get rid of him."

I guess that now people can't trash Marcus since he's been named DPOY, there has to be a target and Nesmith doesn't play enough.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I get thinking he’s not as good as he is. The ball handling can be unbearable to watch and he can rely on his athleticism too much and not have an actual plan with the ball…

But the hate and the rush to blame him for basically everything is incredibly weird and I honestly don’t understand it at all. He’s a very good player who puts the work in and is improving every year.

As you said, he’s a top 25-30 player who is 25 years old. He needs to be appreciated more
Just my opinion, but I think some of it is because the average poster on SoSH favors defense over offense. Especially when that offense is mostly POINTZ. They are mostly self created points though and that's absolutely huge. Like @Kliq said, almost every game there's a stretch where Brown will take over the scoring load. 10+ point quarters aren't a stranger to Jaylen. Neither are 20 point halves.

And while still a black hole, Jaylen's far less of one than he used to be. Given how effective he is, he should be looking to score most of the time. There are games where the TO are a problem but for the most part, he has that in check. Yeah, preferably he'd have a better handle and better playmaking skills, but those are far less of a need now that Tatum has improved in the playmaking area. They also don't stop him from being one of the better Robin's in the game.

If he improved one of these 3 things in a substantial way, top 20-30 becomes top 15-20: Handle, play making, defense.

I don't think he'd the best fit next to Tatum on an individual level, but he's a good fit on a team level. I also don't think he's a terrible fit next to Tatum, just an average one. He checks off quite a few big boxes that the C's need though.

There's one thread talking about trading him. Another poster mentioned that if you trade Brown, you are probably trading the best player in the deal. So while I wouldn't be opposed to trading him in the right deal, I don't see the right deal coming along. I think the *worst* player I'd consider trading Brown for is Brandon Ingram. I'd have been more willing to pull the switch on that trade in December than I am right now though. I think Ingram is better but is he better enough to rock the boat? It's not worth the risk, really.

Someone mentioned LaMelo in another thread but I don't think that's realistic at all. I'd be all over that. Any target that I would consider realistic is mostly picking your poison. Trades for Brown would look like they did earlier this year. Haliburton+ Barnes, Murray + Johnson/Vassel. Hard to justify those trades when you are 2 wins away from the finals. And star for star trades like Brown for Ingram generally don't happen.

So the TL:DR version of trading Jaylen is don't trade him if he's the best player in the deal.
 

RorschachsMask

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People absolutely go too far with the Jaylen negativity. He’s a very good player, and he has his faults, but he’s learned to mostly play within his strengths. I don’t think we will see any more real “leaps” from him, but it’s more about cutting out the bad, which will make him a better player.

I think some of the over the top stuff is because there was a large contingent (up until a few months ago) on Celtics Twitter/Reddit/realgm who pushed that Jaylen is better than Tatum, he just is held back for some reason. So that led to people always pointing out JB’s shortcomings to argue the other way.

I think it’s mostly people grading Jaylen like he’s Tatum, and he’s not that level of player. He should be compared to other top 20-30 players, and he’s clearly better than a fair amount of guys in that range. He’s a damn good secondary scorer, he can carry an offense for large stretches, and he’s plenty good enough defensively. And he’s underpaid for what he brings, on top of it
 
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Auger34

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The funny part about the JB criticisms is that if someone had come from the future when JB was drafted and said, "He's going to be a top-30 player," we all would have been jumping for joy. Now he's a top-30 player who has gotten better almost every year, and people are like, "Let's get rid of him."

I guess that now people can't trash Marcus since he's been named DPOY, there has to be a target and Nesmith doesn't play enough.
Beautifully said.
 

Auger34

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Just my opinion, but I think some of it is because the average poster on SoSH favors defense over offense. Especially when that offense is mostly POINTZ. They are mostly self created points though and that's absolutely huge. Like @Kliq said, almost every game there's a stretch where Brown will take over the scoring load. 10+ point quarters aren't a stranger to Jaylen. Neither are 20 point halves.

And while still a black hole, Jaylen's far less of one than he used to be. Given how effective he is, he should be looking to score most of the time. There are games where the TO are a problem but for the most part, he has that in check. Yeah, preferably he'd have a better handle and better playmaking skills, but those are far less of a need now that Tatum has improved in the playmaking area. They also don't stop him from being one of the better Robin's in the game.

If he improved one of these 3 things in a substantial way, top 20-30 becomes top 15-20: Handle, play making, defense.

I don't think he'd the best fit next to Tatum on an individual level, but he's a good fit on a team level. I also don't think he's a terrible fit next to Tatum, just an average one. He checks off quite a few big boxes that the C's need though.

There's one thread talking about trading him. Another poster mentioned that if you trade Brown, you are probably trading the best player in the deal. So while I wouldn't be opposed to trading him in the right deal, I don't see the right deal coming along. I think the *worst* player I'd consider trading Brown for is Brandon Ingram. I'd have been more willing to pull the switch on that trade in December than I am right now though. I think Ingram is better but is he better enough to rock the boat? It's not worth the risk, really.

Someone mentioned LaMelo in another thread but I don't think that's realistic at all. I'd be all over that. Any target that I would consider realistic is mostly picking your poison. Trades for Brown would look like they did earlier this year. Haliburton+ Barnes, Murray + Johnson/Vassel. Hard to justify those trades when you are 2 wins away from the finals. And star for star trades like Brown for Ingram generally don't happen.

So the TL:DR version of trading Jaylen is don't trade him if he's the best player in the deal.
If people really are dinging him that badly for defense then I would LOVE to see how these same people like Donovan Mitchell (a name that’s been thrown around a bit).

Jaylen has lapses off ball but he’s still a good defender (I’d honestly call him very good but that might be a stretch).

Personally, I think there’s still a pretty big leap left to be hand with the handle and play making that he will achieve. I don’t think he will ever be Chris Paul out there creating plays but I think he can reach a notch or two below where Tatum is now.
I would bet almost everything I own that his handle next year is markedly improved. I think the wrist injury really hindered the progress and path he was on there and I think after another offseason he will get right back on it
 

bakahump

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I think JB is a damn fine player that frustrates the hell out of me at times. His dribbles into 3 defenders in the paint with some wild outlet or strip is.....not good. BUT his dagger 3s and drives and tough finishes are.

What i do take a bit of exception to is that he is a top 25-30 player.

We have MANY here who argue that Tatum is MAYBE a top 15. How The Hell is Jaylen a top 30?

That would basically mean he is better then the Best Player on at least a couple teams. What "Franchises" guy is he better then?
Cleveland? NYK?SAS?
AND if he is better then one of those guys then there are no other "Robins" (IE 2nd best players on a team as good or better then him that would bump him down).
Top 40.....Sure.
Top 50 Certainly and thats great for a "Robin".
You have a top 10 and a top 40 player and another 1-2 in the top 100 and you have a great team (and we are seeing that).

But top 30??
I think many of us could easily name 30 players we would rather have then Jaylen Brown. I guess thats what I take "Top 30" to mean.

If we want to say he is a top 30 SCORER.....I would probably agree with you.
 

Strike4

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Brown makes incredible and incredibly difficult shots when he's on and I think the contrast between that and the player who just loses the handle is what draws so much attention. It sets expectations. We're just not used to seeing a player who has those highs, also have those kind of lows.
 

Auger34

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People absolutely go too far with the Jaylen negativity. He’s a very good player, and he has his faults, but he’s learned to mostly play within his strengths. I don’t think we will see any more real “leaps” from him, but it’s more about cutting out the bad, which will make him a better player.

I think some of the over the top stuff is because there was a large contingent (up until a few months ago) on Celtics Twitter/Reddit/realgm who pushed that Jaylen is better than Tatum, he just is held back for some reason. So that led to people always pointing out JB’s shortcomings to argue the other way.

I think it’s mostly people grading Jaylen like he’s Tatum, and he’s not that level of player. He should be compared to other top 20-30 players, and he’s clearly better than a fair amount of guys in that range. He’s a damn good secondary scorer, he can carry an offense for large stretches, and he’s plenty good enough defensively. And he’s underpaid for what he brings, on top of it
I think you’re generally on the right path but I don’t think it has anything to do with realGM/Reddit.

For whatever reason, there are some fans/posters that seem intent on pitting them against each other or grading one on the merits of the other.

The amount of times I’ve seen posts in game threads after a halves or stretches where they’re both playing badly (or honestly where just Tatum is playing badly) that say “Yeah, Tatum’s been bad but ACTUALLY Jaylen’s been even worse!!!”. It’s absolutely insane
 

jmcc5400

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If people really are dinging him that badly for defense then I would LOVE to see how these same people like Donovan Mitchell (a name that’s been thrown around a bit).

Jaylen has lapses off ball but he’s still a good defender (I’d honestly call him very good but that might be a stretch).

Personally, I think there’s still a pretty big leap left to be hand with the handle and play making that he will achieve. I don’t think he will ever be Chris Paul out there creating plays but I think he can reach a notch or two below where Tatum is now.
I would bet almost everything I own that his handle next year is markedly improved. I think the wrist injury really hindered the progress and path he was on there and I think after another offseason he will get right back on it
I agree with virtually everything here.
 

sezwho

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Brown makes incredible and incredibly difficult shots when he's on and I think the contrast between that and the player who just loses the handle is what draws so much attention. It sets expectations. We're just not used to seeing a player who has those highs, also have those kind of lows.
This is true for me. There is real dissonance watching one of the most exceptional athletes on the court dazzle then kick the ball around like he's imitating Messi (badly). I actually wonder if he's being coached differently, like Tatum has more emphasis on finding the open man and Brown is being encouraged to commit to driving to the basket. Obviously both are important to both players, I'm just wondering about the margins.
 

DGreenwood

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...We have MANY here who argue that Tatum is MAYBE a top 15. How The Hell is Jaylen a top 30?...
The debate these days is whether he's top 5 or top 10. It's been a long time since top 15 was part of the discussion.

...I think many of us could easily name 30 players we would rather have then Jaylen Brown...
Have you tried this? I bet you'll find it harder than you are expecting.
 

Deathofthebambino

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If people really are dinging him that badly for defense then I would LOVE to see how these same people like Donovan Mitchell (a name that’s been thrown around a bit).

Jaylen has lapses off ball but he’s still a good defender (I’d honestly call him very good but that might be a stretch).

Personally, I think there’s still a pretty big leap left to be hand with the handle and play making that he will achieve. I don’t think he will ever be Chris Paul out there creating plays but I think he can reach a notch or two below where Tatum is now.
I would bet almost everything I own that his handle next year is markedly improved. I think the wrist injury really hindered the progress and path he was on there and I think after another offseason he will get right back on it
You know that I've been driving the Jaylen Bandwagon Bus since the day he got here, and I know you feel the same way about him. I agree with every word of this post.

When it comes to Jaylen's defense, I think he's being unfairly maligned a LOT because he happens to share the court with 3 of the best defenders in the NBA (I include Smart, Horford and TL in that group) and then 2 other guys that may be top 25 (Tatum, Grant). But the bottom line is you don't have the best defense in the league, by a country mile, if you have a guy on the court averaging 37.5mpg who sucks at it. Jaylen is a very good defender, but yeah, he's not Marcus Smart.

Last night, the C's defense absolutely fucking stifled Miami in every way, and that defense that Ime is running right now is not an easy defense to play. The amount of switching they were doing away from the ball last night was absolutely fucking incredible. Butler would get switched off onto PP, and before Butler could even get to the ball, Jaylen or someone else was immediately grabbing PP and moving him so he wouldn't be on an island. It happened on every single possession almost. It was almost magical in how well they were doing it. That defense doesn't work if the guy with the 2nd most minutes on the team can't do it.

It's almost the exact same thing on offense. Jaylen Brown is NOT Jayson Tatum, and never will be. But Jaylen has never shied away from the pressure, and IMO, has made as many, if not more, clutch shots at huge moments late in games than Tatum has. Does he have a bad handle at times? Yes. Does he miss the front of end of too many free throws? Yes. But when you need a guy to throw the team on his back for whatever reason, Jaylen can do that, and when his shot is falling, he has the ability to go for 35 on any given night.

I'll never understand the hate he gets, except to say that people just expect him to be something he's not. If Jaylen Brown defended like Marcus, and played offense like Tatum, he'd fucking be Kawhi Leonard.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Butler
Bam
Giannis
Embiid
Harden
Durant
KI
Darius Garland
Trae Young
LaMelo Ball
Booker
Paul
Ja Morant
Steph Curry
Luka
Jokic
DeRozan*
LaVine*
Ingram*
Bradley Beal*
Donovan Mitchell*
Rudy Gobert*
KAT
Anthony Edwards
George
Kawhi
Ingram*
LeBron
Anthony Davis
Dame

There are players who probably will be better than Jaylen but aren't yet. There are also players better than Jaylen who will age out. He's a top 25-30 player in the league. Plus the difference between 20 and 40 is smaller than the difference between 6 and 8.

I probably forgot some players too but I was doing a quick list and trying to come up with at least 30 by being as generous as possible. I came up with 30 and I don't buy that all 30 are better than Brown. The ones with an * I think are debatable. But the top 20-40 players from person to person is going to vary a great deal. People's top 6-8 list will have little.

It wasn't "easy" to name 30 players better than Jaylen Brown. You are vastly overstating the talent around the league. He'd be a few team's #1 and Cleveland isn't one of them. You are seriously underrating Darius Garland. But that's another matter.

He'd arguably be the best player on Toronto, Chicago, NY, Washington, Indiana, Detroit, Orlando, NO, SA, Sac, HOU and OKC. That's 12 out of 30 teams.

What do you think a top 25-30 player looks like if not Jaylen Brown? You say he's absolutely in the top 40 and then act all surprised people have him in the top 30 like there's some huge material difference between someone having a player ranked 39 instead of 28th.
 

MillarTime

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If it's so easy, do it.
The debate these days is whether he's top 5 or top 10. It's been a long time since top 15 was part of the discussion.
Have you tried this? I bet you'll find it harder than you are expecting.
I gave it a shot...Jaylen is definitely top 30

1. Giannis
2. Luka
3. Embiid
4. Jokic
5. Curry
6. Lebron
7. Durant
8. Tatum
9. Morant
10. Kawhi
11. Booker
12. Butler
13. Paul
14. A.Davis
15. Lillard
16. George
17. Trae
18. Towns
19. Draymond
20. Jaylen
21. Ingram
22. Mitchell
23. Bam
24. Siakam
25. Beal
26. LaVine
27. Middleton
28. Jrue
29. LaVine
30. Ant-man

Edit: Wanted to add LaMello and/or Haliburton + prob should've had Garland included
 

Spelunker

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Jaylen is pretty categorically top-30 (which, like top-5, top-10, is more of a tier than an explicitly scoped list). Is there a lot of people arguing otherwise? This feels a bit like a strawman.
 

ManicCompression

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I'll never understand the hate he gets, except to say that people just expect him to be something he's not. If Jaylen Brown defended like Marcus, and played offense like Tatum, he'd fucking be Kawhi Leonard.
I think the reason why he's frustrating is that his mistakes are typically incredibly avoidable and for such a smart person, he can be super airheaded on the court. Case in point, his spin move to the hoop is killer in the regular season and a nice arrow to have in the quiver when going up against the Rockets. Facing Miami and Milwaukee, it hasn't worked - repeatedly - and not just in the sense that he's getting bottled up. He's turning it over, leading to easy steals and transition buckets. So just stop doing that! Stop turning your back to a great defense with a bunch of guys who can intelligently step off their man and steal your dribble. It's just not going to work, like, ever against this level of competition.

On defense, he gets caught watching the ball. I'd argue that actually the rest of the guys being great saves him because so often when you see a guy getting an open three or cutting to the hoop, it's his guy that he lost off ball and RWIII or Smart can clean up his mistake. The rest of the team is pretty disciplined in that area, but he can get distracted.

And the free throws - christ the free throws - it shouldn't be that I'd rather have Time Lord shooting free throws at critical moments over Jaylen, but that's where we're at in these playoffs.

These aren't problems like Pritchard being small or Marcus not being a great shooter aka these aren't player flaws, they're fairly fixable things that persist for whatever reason (and btw I don't think it's a lack of effort - he's obviously putting in the work). I think he's a great player, he's a top 30 player, his development has been amazing, he's exactly the kind of player that is most valuable in the league, but he can be frustrating because limiting the damage of the above would make him that much better, same way Tatum has been frustrating with the lazy passes to the Heat this series. As we're seeing right now, the margins are so thin at a championship level, the details are so important, and cleaning up "focus" kind of mistakes can be the difference between sweeping an inferior team and possibly losing to them in 6 or 7 games.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I gave it a shot...Jaylen is definitely top 30

1. Giannis
2. Luka
3. Embiid
4. Jokic
5. Curry
6. Lebron
7. Durant
8. Tatum
9. Morant
10. Kawhi
11. Booker
12. Butler
13. Paul
14. A.Davis
15. Lillard
16. George
17. Trae
18. Towns
19. Draymond
20. Jaylen
21. Ingram
22. Mitchell
23. Bam
24. Siakam
25. Beal
26. LaVine
27. Middleton
28. Jrue
29. LaVine
30. Ant-man
Our top 30 had 25 of the same players but you also named LaVine 2 times. I also intentionally left Jaylen out.
So you had Siakam, Middleton, Jrue, and Draymond.
I had Gobert, DeRozan, LaMelo and Harden.

We named a combined 34 players, not including Jaylen. I guess one could have Brown in the 31-40 range but I don't see how that's all that different than 25-30.
 

DGreenwood

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Since we're showing lists, this is from the Athletic's mid-season list. This is showing tiers instead of a ranking, which I think is the right way to approach a debate like this. There are some players like Tatum and Ja who should be higher now than they were mid-season. There are also some older players that look like they are dropping (Kawhi, Harden, AD...). Overall it's a pretty good list.

Giannis Antetokounmpo
Kevin Durant
Nikola Jokic

Joel Embiid
Kawhi Leonard
LeBron James
Luka Doncic
Stephen Curry

Anthony Davis
Chris Paul
James Harden
Rudy Gobert

Devin Booker
Jayson Tatum
Jimmy Butler
Paul George

Bam Adebayo
Damian Lillard
Ja Morant
Karl-Anthony Towns
Trae Young

Bradley Beal
DeMar DeRozan
Donovan Mitchell
Jrue Holiday
Khris Middleton
Kyrie Irving

Jamal Murray
Jaylen Brown
Klay Thompson
Pascal Siakam
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Zach LaVine
 
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Auger34

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Jaylen is pretty categorically top-30 (which, like top-5, top-10, is more of a tier than an explicitly scoped list). Is there a lot of people arguing otherwise? This feels a bit like a strawman.
There was question in the game thread about if he was really the 2nd best player on the Celtics. Its not a lot of people but it’s also not a straw man
 

Auger34

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I think the reason why he's frustrating is that his mistakes are typically incredibly avoidable and for such a smart person, he can be super airheaded on the court. Case in point, his spin move to the hoop is killer in the regular season and a nice arrow to have in the quiver when going up against the Rockets. Facing Miami and Milwaukee, it hasn't worked - repeatedly - and not just in the sense that he's getting bottled up. He's turning it over, leading to easy steals and transition buckets. So just stop doing that! Stop turning your back to a great defense with a bunch of guys who can intelligently step off their man and steal your dribble. It's just not going to work, like, ever against this level of competition.

On defense, he gets caught watching the ball. I'd argue that actually the rest of the guys being great saves him because so often when you see a guy getting an open three or cutting to the hoop, it's his guy that he lost off ball and RWIII or Smart can clean up his mistake. The rest of the team is pretty disciplined in that area, but he can get distracted.

And the free throws - christ the free throws - it shouldn't be that I'd rather have Time Lord shooting free throws at critical moments over Jaylen, but that's where we're at in these playoffs.

These aren't problems like Pritchard being small or Marcus not being a great shooter aka these aren't player flaws, they're fairly fixable things that persist for whatever reason (and btw I don't think it's a lack of effort - he's obviously putting in the work). I think he's a great player, he's a top 30 player, his development has been amazing, he's exactly the kind of player that is most valuable in the league, but he can be frustrating because limiting the damage of the above would make him that much better, same way Tatum has been frustrating with the lazy passes to the Heat this series. As we're seeing right now, the margins are so thin at a championship level, the details are so important, and cleaning up "focus" kind of mistakes can be the difference between sweeping an inferior team and possibly losing to them in 6 or 7 games.
So this is kind of the rub with Jaylen…the spin move has worked against the Bucks and Heat. He keeps the handle tight and he gets free throws or a bucket. Of course he’s also done spin moves where it looks like he’s literally throwing the ball to the other team.

In regards to the ball watching. Yes, he does get caught the most out of Celtics players doing that….i believe that we are also incredibly spoiled. I listen to multiple NBA podcasts and whenever Jaylen is brought up the comment is that he’s a good, physical defender. I’ve never heard one person (that doesn’t cover the Celtics specifically) even mention his off ball defense. If it was as bad as it seems to us, it would be much more of a talking point nationally.

Free throws wise, he’s still at 74.4% for the playoffs. For whatever reason, it feels like it’s much worse than that but that’s what it is. That’s not good but it’s also not crippling
 

Cesar Crespo

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Free throws wise, he’s still at 74.4% for the playoffs. For whatever reason, it feels like it’s much worse than that but that’s what it is. That’s not good but it’s also not crippling
Because in the playoffs, every FT feels like a big FT.
 

tims4wins

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Free throws wise, he’s still at 74.4% for the playoffs. For whatever reason, it feels like it’s much worse than that but that’s what it is. That’s not good but it’s also not crippling
It's been a tale of 2 playoffs from the line for JB. Through game 5 of the Milwaukee series, he was 38-45, 84.4%. In the last six games, he is 23-37, 62.2%. He's missed 3 or more FTs in 4 of those 6 games, after not missing more than 2 FT in a single game prior.
 

bakahump

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I did look and my list was very similar to yours Some guys moved up (Garland, Ingram Ball for example) and a couple moved down.

I am not saying Jaylen is Bad.
What I am saying is we have a tendency to either overrate (JAYLEN IS TOP 30!) when he is definitely Somewhere from 25-45 and underate ("NO WAY is Tatum top 10! Luka, Bron, etc etc etc").
Is the difference huge with Jaylen? No. And thats part of the point. the 42nd guy isnt too far from being the 35th. So Jaylen as the 30th is not to far from 38. Yet if I say well it would be pretty easy FOR SOME....to name 40 better players...its "Your Crazy!"

Jaylen is 114 in OWS
Jaylen is 17 in DWS (which you have to admit is helped by his teammates)
Jaylen is 57th in WS
Jaylen is 62nd in WS/48
Jaylen is 44th in OBPM
Jaylen is 78th in DBPM
Jaylen is 40th in BPM
Jaylen is 40th in Vorp
Jaylen is 40th in PER
Jaylen is 82nd in TS%
Jaylen was 79th in TOV% (Higher is Better.....Tatum was 94th.....Lavine was 90)
Jaylen was 13th in scoring (and I gave him credit for being a very good scorer)
Jaylen was 94th in 3pt%
Jaylen was 72nd in Reb%
Jaylen was 62nd in Asst%

Now I agree that his usage was often much higher then many others on the lists I mention.
And I also agree that he is "more then the sum of his parts" in these lists. IOW finding a guy who is as good a 3pt shooter and Rebounder as Jaylen is tough. But I also think that would put him somewhere around 40.

But show me a stat othern then scoring that easily has him top 30.

Dont get me wrong I like him.....despite my frustrations with him at times. But if we consider every factor (age defense injury etc etc) he is easy to knock down a few pegs. And with as crowded and close as the 30-50 players are a few pegs is a big deal. Conversely its pretty easy for a few of those 44-48 guys to jump ahead of Jaylen year to year.

Saying he is "Top 40 Sure" Is not some huge argument against Jalen. You guys are making the case. 25/30-->50 is pretty crowded. But simply saying "Jaylen is top 30 end of dicussion" seems short sighted and kinda homerish. Use our words and say he is somewhere 30-45. But thats not top 30.

As someone up thread said thats a "Tier". He is below the "fanchise" guys and somewhere mixed into the next tier. If we assume there are 25 Franchise guys.....and 25 Next tier guys.......40 is in that window. And certainly more representative of who Jaylen is then "Top 30".
 

Spelunker

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So this is kind of the rub with Jaylen…the spin move has worked against the Bucks and Heat. He keeps the handle tight and he gets free throws or a bucket. Of course he’s also done spin moves where it looks like he’s literally throwing the ball to the other team.

In regards to the ball watching. Yes, he does get caught the most out of Celtics players doing that….i believe that we are also incredibly spoiled. I listen to multiple NBA podcasts and whenever Jaylen is brought up the comment is that he’s a good, physical defender. I’ve never heard one person (that doesn’t cover the Celtics specifically) even mention his off ball defense. If it was as bad as it seems to us, it would be much more of a talking point nationally.

Free throws wise, he’s still at 74.4% for the playoffs. For whatever reason, it feels like it’s much worse than that but that’s what it is. That’s not good but it’s also not crippling
See, I think this is the problem with national commentary and why they overrate him defensively (and it's a good proxy to see how much they watch of the Celtics). It's easy to watch him in a few games and pick up that he's a good, strong on-ball defender. But that's also facile, and not as important as being a good team defender. I would hear NBA podcasts saying, for example, that he was better on defense than Tatum and know they didn't watch many Cs games.

Media/commenters that watch the Celtics a lot realize that he's not a great team defender, certainly not compared to the other starters. But- much like how it's easier in a short amount of time if someone is a good iso player, compared to someone that facilitates or unlocks team offense- it takes more reps to see that someone is good on rotations and help.

I think you're describing the national / local dynamic correctly, but I disagree with the conclusion: I think it's an indictment of national press, not us being spoiled. The national folks just don't see enough games to get past the simplistic take (or, now that we're in the playoffs and they're seeing more of the team in a condensed timeframe, they're not quite as vocal about calling him a great defender).
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I think the reason why he's frustrating is that his mistakes are typically incredibly avoidable and for such a smart person, he can be super airheaded on the court. Case in point, his spin move to the hoop is killer in the regular season and a nice arrow to have in the quiver when going up against the Rockets. Facing Miami and Milwaukee, it hasn't worked - repeatedly - and not just in the sense that he's getting bottled up. He's turning it over, leading to easy steals and transition buckets. So just stop doing that! Stop turning your back to a great defense with a bunch of guys who can intelligently step off their man and steal your dribble. It's just not going to work, like, ever against this level of competition.

On defense, he gets caught watching the ball. I'd argue that actually the rest of the guys being great saves him because so often when you see a guy getting an open three or cutting to the hoop, it's his guy that he lost off ball and RWIII or Smart can clean up his mistake. The rest of the team is pretty disciplined in that area, but he can get distracted.
I think these two things are more or less two sides of a coin and generally speak to on-ball vs. off-ball awareness. His handle face-up has improved a TON since he came into the league, to where you regularly see him break down inferior defensive players with ease on his way to the rim for 2. When the play is in front of him he is a dynamo, but he just doesn't quite have that preternatural sense of where defenders are on the court when they are not directly in sight.

There's no shame in it—defenders move fast as hell in the NBA—but that is final frontier when it comes to his handle. Finishing plays against good defenses when he has beaten the first defender—whether that means one fewer dribble, one extra dribble, or finding an open man. Prime Harden, for example, absolutely feasts on the kind of reach-in defense that catches Jaylen unawares a lot of the time. It's not easy to master, it's the handle + subtle body positioning + changing speeds AND direction + the spatial and body awareness to know where the man is behind or to the side and how to draw the whistle the minute that reach comes.

The good news is that he is already great and incremental improvement at this point is fine since he has made the leap to star player.
 
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Devizier

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I’m going to say as the furthest thing from a professional athlete, that BBIQ or any of its sports analogs have nothing to do with what we consider “normal” intelligence. It’s probably much closer to instinct, although it can be learned/trained. If a player is actually thinking they are already fucked.

@HomeRunBaker talks about this a lot.
 

bosox4283

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Since we're showing lists, this is from the Athletic's mid-season list. This is showing tiers instead of a ranking, which I think is the right way to approach a debate like this. There are some players like Tatum and Ja who should be higher now than they were mid-season. There are also some older players that look like they are dropping (Kawhi, Harden, AD...). Overall it's a pretty good list.

Anthony Davis
Chris Paul
James Harden
Rudy Gobert
This particular grouping has not fared well.
 

jezza1918

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I’m going to say as the furthest thing from a professional athlete, that BBIQ or any of its sports analogs have nothing to do with what we consider “normal” intelligence. It’s probably much closer to instinct, although it can be learned/trained. If a player is actually thinking they are already fucked.

@HomeRunBaker talks about this a lot.
51839
Sorry for the content free post but I literally just sent this gif to someone. Also, I completely agree with the bolded...so there's your content.
 

Ed Hillel

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There was question in the game thread about if he was really the 2nd best player on the Celtics. Its not a lot of people but it’s also not a straw man
I’ll freely admit that I think Timelord is the second most impactful player on the Celtics, and that’s not a knock in any way on Jaylen Brown. I think Timelord is very underrated because he doesn’t score 20 points a game, though I get it because he is new to the scene and has been hurt most of the playoffs. You really can only gauge his value by watching, the stats won’t necessarily pop.
 

chilidawg

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I did look and my list was very similar to yours Some guys moved up (Garland, Ingram Ball for example) and a couple moved down.

I am not saying Jaylen is Bad.
What I am saying is we have a tendency to either overrate (JAYLEN IS TOP 30!) when he is definitely Somewhere from 25-45 and underate ("NO WAY is Tatum top 10! Luka, Bron, etc etc etc").
Is the difference huge with Jaylen? No. And thats part of the point. the 42nd guy isnt too far from being the 35th. So Jaylen as the 30th is not to far from 38. Yet if I say well it would be pretty easy FOR SOME....to name 40 better players...its "Your Crazy!"

Jaylen is 114 in OWS
Jaylen is 17 in DWS (which you have to admit is helped by his teammates)
Jaylen is 57th in WS
Jaylen is 62nd in WS/48
Jaylen is 44th in OBPM
Jaylen is 78th in DBPM
Jaylen is 40th in BPM
Jaylen is 40th in Vorp
Jaylen is 40th in PER
Jaylen is 82nd in TS%
Jaylen was 79th in TOV% (Higher is Better.....Tatum was 94th.....Lavine was 90)
Jaylen was 13th in scoring (and I gave him credit for being a very good scorer)
Jaylen was 94th in 3pt%
Jaylen was 72nd in Reb%
Jaylen was 62nd in Asst%

Now I agree that his usage was often much higher then many others on the lists I mention.
And I also agree that he is "more then the sum of his parts" in these lists. IOW finding a guy who is as good a 3pt shooter and Rebounder as Jaylen is tough. But I also think that would put him somewhere around 40.

But show me a stat othern then scoring that easily has him top 30.

Dont get me wrong I like him.....despite my frustrations with him at times. But if we consider every factor (age defense injury etc etc) he is easy to knock down a few pegs. And with as crowded and close as the 30-50 players are a few pegs is a big deal. Conversely its pretty easy for a few of those 44-48 guys to jump ahead of Jaylen year to year.

Saying he is "Top 40 Sure" Is not some huge argument against Jalen. You guys are making the case. 25/30-->50 is pretty crowded. But simply saying "Jaylen is top 30 end of dicussion" seems short sighted and kinda homerish. Use our words and say he is somewhere 30-45. But thats not top 30.

As someone up thread said thats a "Tier". He is below the "fanchise" guys and somewhere mixed into the next tier. If we assume there are 25 Franchise guys.....and 25 Next tier guys.......40 is in that window. And certainly more representative of who Jaylen is then "Top 30".
50th in Raptor, 60th by Lebron. I still think he's the 2nd best Celtic, but these advanced stats say it's Horford.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Any list that shows Bradley Beal as a better player than Jaylen Brown isn't worth the piece of paper it's printed on. I wouldn't trade Jaylen straight up for Donovan Mitchell, and I don't think Brad would either. Donovan Mitchell doesn't play defense and I think there is a very good argument he is not even as good as Jaylen offensively.

This season:

Mitchell: 25.9ppg, 4.2rpg, 5.3apg, 3.0topg, shooting .448/.355/.853, 32.9 usage, 11.7tov%, 56.6%ts, 114ortg, 111drtg

Brown: 23.6ppg, 6.3rpg, 3.5apg, 2.7topg, shooting .473/.358/.758, 30.5 usage, 11.5tov%, 56.6%ts, 109ortg, 108drtg

Give me Brown at 4/115mil over Mitchell at 5/163mil all day long.

Jaylen Brown is closer to a top 25 player than he is a top 35 player.
 

ManicCompression

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So this is kind of the rub with Jaylen…the spin move has worked against the Bucks and Heat. He keeps the handle tight and he gets free throws or a bucket. Of course he’s also done spin moves where it looks like he’s literally throwing the ball to the other team.
This is a dumb way of doing this, but I watched the highlight packages of his two best games against the heat and there isn't a single spin move that leads to a basket, either by himself or via assist. It's all overpowering, aggressive drives, threes and midgrangers. View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=se93H4_1JEI
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUspxNF_4L8


I don't have time to dig through every game, but if he's not leveraging it to success in his two best games, hard to see when it's worked.

To avoid derailing the thread with minutiae, I'll sum it up as this: Frustrations with Jaylen stem from high expectations for Jaylen, and that's a good thing! He should be held to high-expectations, he has the potential to be even better than he is now. Like Trae Young will never be good at defense and he won't be expected to be good because he's short and frail, that'll always be a limitation, but Jaylen really has nothing like that beyond some infuriating on-court habits that he can fix.
 

lexrageorge

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Any list that shows Bradley Beal as a better player than Jaylen Brown isn't worth the piece of paper it's printed on. I wouldn't trade Jaylen straight up for Donovan Mitchell, and I don't think Brad would either. Donovan Mitchell doesn't play defense and I think there is a very good argument he is not even as good as Jaylen offensively.

This season:

Mitchell: 25.9ppg, 4.2rpg, 5.3apg, 3.0topg, shooting .448/.355/.853, 32.9 usage, 11.7tov%, 56.6%ts, 114ortg, 111drtg

Brown: 23.6ppg, 6.3rpg, 3.5apg, 2.7topg, shooting .473/.358/.758, 30.5 usage, 11.5tov%, 56.6%ts, 109ortg, 108drtg

Give me Brown at 4/115mil over Mitchell at 5/163mil all day long.

Jaylen Brown is closer to a top 25 player than he is a top 35 player.
I feel the same way about any list that has Harden ranked higher than Tatum. I am hoping their respective playoff performances end that silliness.
 

Jimbodandy

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I did look and my list was very similar to yours Some guys moved up (Garland, Ingram Ball for example) and a couple moved down.

I am not saying Jaylen is Bad.
What I am saying is we have a tendency to either overrate (JAYLEN IS TOP 30!) when he is definitely Somewhere from 25-45 and underate ("NO WAY is Tatum top 10! Luka, Bron, etc etc etc").
Is the difference huge with Jaylen? No. And thats part of the point. the 42nd guy isnt too far from being the 35th. So Jaylen as the 30th is not to far from 38. Yet if I say well it would be pretty easy FOR SOME....to name 40 better players...its "Your Crazy!"

Jaylen is 114 in OWS
Jaylen is 17 in DWS (which you have to admit is helped by his teammates)
Jaylen is 57th in WS
Jaylen is 62nd in WS/48
Jaylen is 44th in OBPM
Jaylen is 78th in DBPM
Jaylen is 40th in BPM
Jaylen is 40th in Vorp
Jaylen is 40th in PER
Jaylen is 82nd in TS%
Jaylen was 79th in TOV% (Higher is Better.....Tatum was 94th.....Lavine was 90)
Jaylen was 13th in scoring (and I gave him credit for being a very good scorer)
Jaylen was 94th in 3pt%
Jaylen was 72nd in Reb%
Jaylen was 62nd in Asst%

But show me a stat other then scoring that easily has him top 30.
You should meet DARKO, which currently has Jaylen at 14 (and Tatum at 4).

PER, WS, and VORP are junk. BPM is not good.

Lebron has him at 24 or 62 depending on which version. Raptor has him at 50.

Advanced numbers are all over the place on Jaylen.
 

Auger34

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See, I think this is the problem with national commentary and why they overrate him defensively (and it's a good proxy to see how much they watch of the Celtics). It's easy to watch him in a few games and pick up that he's a good, strong on-ball defender. But that's also facile, and not as important as being a good team defender. I would hear NBA podcasts saying, for example, that he was better on defense than Tatum and know they didn't watch many Cs games.

Media/commenters that watch the Celtics a lot realize that he's not a great team defender, certainly not compared to the other starters. But- much like how it's easier in a short amount of time if someone is a good iso player, compared to someone that facilitates or unlocks team offense- it takes more reps to see that someone is good on rotations and help.

I think you're describing the national / local dynamic correctly, but I disagree with the conclusion: I think it's an indictment of national press, not us being spoiled. The national folks just don't see enough games to get past the simplistic take (or, now that we're in the playoffs and they're seeing more of the team in a condensed timeframe, they're not quite as vocal about calling him a great defender).
I think I agree with a lot of wha
This is a dumb way of doing this, but I watched the highlight packages of his two best games against the heat and there isn't a single spin move that leads to a basket, either by himself or via assist. It's all overpowering, aggressive drives, threes and midgrangers. View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=se93H4_1JEI
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUspxNF_4L8


I don't have time to dig through every game, but if he's not leveraging it to success in his two best games, hard to see when it's worked.

To avoid derailing the thread with minutiae, I'll sum it up as this: Frustrations with Jaylen stem from high expectations for Jaylen, and that's a good thing! He should be held to high-expectations, he has the potential to be even better than he is now. Like Trae Young will never be good at defense and he won't be expected to be good because he's short and frail, that'll always be a limitation, but Jaylen really has nothing like that beyond some infuriating on-court habits that he can fix.
Like you, I am not going to go through every game and look to see when the spin move has worked. I guess this is an agree to disagree situation because I have memories of it working (although it hasn’t worked more often than it’s worked thus playoffs).

I agree with your last paragraph too! That’s a fair critique.

However, and I think you’re getting a flavor of it on this thread, there’s a big difference between “I like Jaylen as a player, he’s top 30 but he can work on things” and some of the things other posters say about him.
He gets the most shit out of anyone on the team here (to me, it seems like a wide margin) and, IMO, that’s absurd
 

bakahump

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What have we decided about Darko, Lebron1,2 or Raptor.
I am seriously asking. As I am not smart enough to dispute them.
What I would ask is what does the outliers look like on D,L1, L2 and R? While Jaylen is 14.....is there that weird guy at 19? Is a really good player at 49? While Pers,WS, Vorp, BPM all have issues......Its not like D, L1,L2 and R are Bulletproof are they?
And even if we do take all 4 of those into account at face value.......14,24,50 and 62....hell lets AVG them.......37.5
Thats not top 30.
It is top 40.

Its Not Bad. in fact its really good. but its not top 30.
 

Jimbodandy

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What have we decided about Darko, Lebron1,2 or Raptor.
I am seriously asking. As I am not smart enough to dispute them.
What I would ask is what does the outliers look like on D,L1, L2 and R? While Jaylen is 14.....is there that weird guy at 19? Is a really good player at 49? While Pers,WS, Vorp, BPM all have issues......Its not like D, L1,L2 and R are Bulletproof are they?
And even if we do take all 4 of those into account at face value.......14,24,50 and 62....hell lets AVG them.......37.5
Thats not top 30.
It is top 40.

Its Not Bad. in fact its really good. but its not top 30.
I guess it's what you want to measure too. And if you think that taking the average of a bunch of weird numbers tells a better story. I don't, but even Nate himself did that with BPM and RPM in forecasting a few years back. That's the "blended scotch" approach.

I prefer DARKO because of its approach, and it passes the smell test for me. Now my own example is not proof of anything, since I don't think that JB is 14th either and is drafting on his teammates somewhat. This is of course a function of all of the impact stats to an extent, and it contributes to some of the utter uselessness of the worst ones in that regard (pour one out for our lost brothers from the RPM wars). DARKO is the best at it, IMO, but still isn't perfect. I still find myself agreeing with it far more so than Lebron and Raptor, which are themselves at least useful.

more edits: lest it seem like I'm cherry picking to support my guy, RPM has JB as #20, but it has a shitload of bizarro outliers still (i.e., I still hate it).
 
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Cellar-Door

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I think Jaylen is in many ways the most emblematic player of the team, he's really good. But sometimes (often in key moments) the wheels just come all the way off on offense. He just turns it over 2-3 possessions in row, leading to breaks, just catastrophic collapse stuff, and that sticks with people far more than say Tatum going 0-7 in a quarter.
 

Just a bit outside

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Jaylen might be debatable as a strict top 30 guy but you wouldn‘t trade him for a lot of guys on that list because of age, lack of defense, or team construction. So while you might argue he is the 35th player instead of the 25th player I think his trade value is easily within the top 25, maybe as high as 15.

I think Jaylen gets criticized way to much because his mistakes seem unforced. He just loses the dribble or his guy gets open back door. For a guy that plays as many minutes as he does the fact that this happens a couple of times a game is a small price to pay but it is still frustrating.

That being said he is in the top 20 in the playoffs for ppg, threes per game, foul shots per game, and rebounding all while playing good defense.
 

ManicCompression

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However, and I think you’re getting a flavor of it on this thread, there’s a big difference between “I like Jaylen as a player, he’s top 30 but he can work on things” and some of the things other posters say about him.
He gets the most shit out of anyone on the team here (to me, it seems like a wide margin) and, IMO, that’s absurd
That's kind of what I mean though. He gets the most shit because there's a lot expected of him. Pretty much everyone outside of Tatum has well known limitations that aren't going to change. Smart's not going to become a great shooter, PP can try on D but he's never going to be taller, Grant's not going to ISO well (as much as he wants to try), Al's not going to be a primary scorer, etc. Jaylen and Tatum get paid the big bucks and get all of the headlines because the team lives and dies with them - it's natural to be disappointed when they fall short, particularly when it's for stuff like bad turnovers/bad D/not running back to complain about a foul, etc. because all of that is fairly avoidable. Derrick White won't cost these guys a game the same way Jaylen/Tatum can.

I think these two things are more or less two sides of a coin and generally speak to on-ball vs. off-ball awareness. His handle face-up has improved a TON since he came into the league, to where you regularly see him break down inferior defensive players with ease on his way to the rim for 2. When the play is in front of him he is a dynamo, but he just doesn't quite have that preternatural sense of where defenders are on the court when they are not directly in sight.
Agree with all this but I'll say that the issue, to me, is not so much that he's bad at dribbling/driving. That's almost tangential to the problem. He has improved insanely in that area over the years, just as he has his jump shot. The problem to me is that he doesn't realize he's not great, so he doesn't pick his spots well and he forces the issue. He can have a sloppy handle so long as he understands "when I see it getting tight in the lane, I should not try to find something that's not there". Either pull up for the silky free throw jumper that he gleaned from Hayward or pass it out and make the defense react.

He doesn't need to be a preternatural playmaker, he just needs to get quicker to realizing the battles he can win and what he can lose. Maybe this is asking a lot because on the other hand we want these guys to "be aggressive" but against opponents like the Heat that really need fast break points to win, it seems like he should favor a more conservative style of play.