Jaylen Brown re-signs for 4 years/$115 million

[BaseballJones]

Could you imagine what Jaylen's numbers would look like if he didn't play with 2 centers clogging the lane, had another legitimate threat from 3, and had a PG that could penetrate/dish to him?

Since we're imagining... With today's players, what four guys (from any team) surrounding Tatum would give him the best chance to flourish into a perennial MVP? You can pick any four other players. But obviously the better they are, the more likely they might be to suck Tatum's numbers away (i.e., you put him next to Giannis and maybe Giannis takes way too many shots...that kind of thing).

So the goal of the exercise is to maximize Tatum by surrounding him with four guys who will complement him the best.

Who ya got?

 

[luckiestman]

Since we're imagining... With today's players, what four guys (from any team) surrounding Tatum would give him the best chance to flourish into a perennial MVP? You can pick any four other players. But obviously the better they are, the more likely they might be to suck Tatum's numbers away (i.e., you put him next to Giannis and maybe Giannis takes way too many shots...that kind of thing).

So the goal of the exercise is to maximize Tatum by surrounding him with four guys who will complement him the best.

Who ya got?

Bam
OG Anunoby
Tatum
Jaylen
CP3

 

[DannyDarwinism]

Ooh that’s a good one. Without reusing any guys:

Joker
Simmons
Middleton
Steph

 

[lovegtm]

Tatum is extremely pluggable on both ends, so it quickly becomes an exercise in choosing really good players.

Agree w benhogan that the Celtics need to really focus on getting Teague and PP enough run to keep things spread out, both in terms of outside shooting and loosening up the defense. I'm going to break all my regular season rules and lose my shit tonight if that moronic 2-big lineup is out there again.

 

[lovegtm]

Does the Celtics coaching staff just completely lack creativity when it comes to getting Jaylen the ball?

This isn’t rocket science—a thin team with a surprise emerging offensive star should be developing the shit out of that unexpectedly good outcome.

 

[slamminsammya]

I missed the game tonight since I was driving through the Texas panhandle which is somehow more boring than the entirety of Nebraska, but apparently Jaylen Brown is prime MJ now? Why was the game close? I did see in the highlights there was some more Thompson Theis action, did they get their shit together a bit or was it still tough to watch?

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I missed the game tonight since I was driving through the Texas panhandle which is somehow more boring than the entirety of Nebraska, but apparently Jaylen Brown is prime MJ now? Why was the game close? I did see in the highlights there was some more Thompson Theis action, did they get their shit together a bit or was it still tough to watch?

Cs didn't get many stops. Group effort.

 

[chilidawg]

Surround Jaylen with Pippen, Horace Grant, Paxson and Cartwright, what do you get?

 

[DJnVa]

Brown actually walks the walk. Hayward gets to be the man in Charlotte now and he is still wildly inconsistent. It's only been 4 games but I don't think Brown will be seeing Gordon at the all star game this season.

Well, there's no All Star game this year, so, yep.

 

[DavidTai]

Surround Jaylen with Pippen, Horace Grant, Paxson and Cartwright, what do you get?

Toni Kukoc?

 

[chilidawg]

Toni Kukoc?

Nope, but I should have put him in there instead of Cartwright.

 

[benhogan]

Tatum is extremely pluggable on both ends, so it quickly becomes an exercise in choosing really good players.

Agree w benhogan that the Celtics need to really focus on getting Teague and PP enough run to keep things spread out, both in terms of outside shooting and loosening up the defense. I'm going to break all my regular season rules and lose my shit tonight if that moronic 2-big lineup is out there again.

Quite frankly I'm in shock with the leap Brown has taken this season. He's playing like an All NBA player. Danny needs to get the blueprints out and design this team even more around Tatum/Brown.

Regardless of this 2 BIG nonsense, this team is in a 2021 Championship hunt with the right pieces around JayCrew. Danny will need to be aggressive moving picks, recent draft picks, using the TPE to add vets around the Jays by the trade deadline.

I don't miss Gordon Hayward's 17pts one bit, if Kemba returns healthy.

 

[OnTheBlack]

I think Brown is far less likely to reach his ceiling, but I think it's higher than Tatum's.

99th percentile athlete, 99th percentile work ethic.

Isn’t this combo the perfect recipe for hitting a ceiling though? The athleticism is what gives him such a high ceiling and the work ethic increases his likelihood of achieving it? It’s why I think it’s always been a reasonable take to think of Brown more highly than Tatum. He came in more raw and had more the develop in his game, but he’s doing what you would expect someone in the 99% of both to do.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Isn’t this combo the perfect recipe for hitting a ceiling though?

Yeah, the ceiling is just so high and Tatum is likely to improve as well. Of course, in the early going, Jaylen has looked better than Tatum. How much of that is teams concentrating more on Tatum, I dunno. If Tatum has many more 12 assists/0 TO games, that will change things a lot too.

 

[lovegtm]

The correct take is probably that they both have ridiculous upside that they’re more likely to achieve than is acknowledged.

That also implies that the front office and the coaching staff need to maximize them even more. I understand the front office’s constraints (no one is selling anybody this early), but the coaching staff has seemed stuck wishing for a team that had Hayward and Kemba.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I missed the game tonight since I was driving through the Texas panhandle which is somehow more boring than the entirety of Nebraska, but apparently Jaylen Brown is prime MJ now? Why was the game close? I did see in the highlights there was some more Thompson Theis action, did they get their shit together a bit or was it still tough to watch?

Brown shot 13-16 in the game, including 5-8 from three. He shot 9-11 for 22 points in the first half and 4-5 for 9 points in the second. I think the Celtics need to think about getting him more shots when he is this hot.

 

[lovegtm]

I’ve been one of the more critical people here wrt him not getting enough shots. However, to be fair to the coaching staff, I don’t think they imagined he’d be this good, this early.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Brown shot 13-16 in the game, including 5-8 from three. He shot 9-11 for 22 points in the first half and 4-5 for 9 points in the second. I think the Celtics need to think about getting him more shots when he is this hot.

I'd personally like to see the Jay's each get 20 shots / game and they are averaging right around that but Jaylen now has 3 games with 16 or fewer shots. He's also only playing 34 MPG, which seems a little light given the team's need and available alternative options. I know we're trying to keep guys fresh and all but right now he's 30th in MPG. Could probably easily handle a few more minutes / game without any long-term impact.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I'd personally like to see the Jay's each get 20 shots / game and they are averaging right around that but Jaylen now has 3 games with 16 or fewer shots. He's also only playing 34 MPG, which seems a little light given the team's need and available alternative options. I know we're trying to keep guys fresh and all but right now he's 30th in MPG. Could probably easily handle a few more minutes / game without any long-term impact.

Disagree with the increased minutes. JB plays super hard on both ends of the court - which is unusual in the NBA - so the minutes add up. I'd rather keep his minutes down and allow him to consistently play hard than increase his minutes for nominal chances of winning games. The other minutes can be put to good use instead.

He'll get his 40 minute games in the playoffs.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Disagree with the increased minutes. JB plays super hard on both ends of the court - which is unusual in the NBA - so the minutes add up. I'd rather keep his minutes down and allow him to consistently play hard than increase his minutes for nominal chances of winning games. The other minutes can be put to good use instead.

He'll get his 40 minute games in the playoffs.

The other minutes aren't being put to good use. They're going to guys who won't be in the rotation when the games matter more. If some of those minutes were going towards Nesmith's development, I'd feel differently. But they're not. They're going to guys like Semi, Green when he's healthy, Grant, etc. 2 minutes / game won't break a 24 year-old athletic dynamo like Jaylen.

 

[the moops]

The other minutes aren't being put to good use. They're going to guys who won't be in the rotation when the games matter more. If some of those minutes were going towards Nesmith's development, I'd feel differently. But they're not. They're going to guys like Semi, Green when he's healthy, Grant, etc. 2 minutes / game won't break a 24 year-old athletic dynamo like Jaylen.

The extra minutes won't kill him, but they do need to find their rotational players. And the time to figure that out it is now, not in the playoffs when someone gets into foul trouble, or hurt, or matchups dictate it.

 

[slamminsammya]

He looks fantastic. That said, he is shooting 24% of his shots between 10 feet and the 3 point line and shooting about 80% on those which is not sustainable. Sincerely, party pooper.

I wonder will he ever be able to add more off the dribble 3s to his game, as I think that would really open things up for him in a big way.

 

[BigSoxFan]

The extra minutes won't kill him, but they do need to find their rotational players. And the time to figure that out it is now, not in the playoffs when someone gets into foul trouble, or hurt, or matchups dictate it.

I'd argue that Brad already has a very good idea about what Semi brings to the table. For better or worse, he's one of the steadiest players we have. He's also clearly trying to see what Grant can provide, which is fine, but I'd also love to see him throw some minutes to Nesmith at some point. He's a guy who needs a lot of development, especially on defense, but who offers considerable upside if the game can slow down for him. And now seems like a good time with Romeo and Kemba out. Don't see how you find minutes for him when they return, especially since a vet wing may be added at some point as well.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

Tatum, Jaylen and Marcus are 3, 5 and 6 in minutes played so far in the NBA. Jaylen’s 34 mpg is good for 26th overall and the highest of his career. Given the condensed season, I think that’s more than enough. A healthy Kemba would be huge, but we badly need a 3 and D innings eater from somewhere.

Jaylen’s been so flippin’ good. The separation he can get with his first step and footwork, plus the elevation he’s getting on his jumper means that if he’s shooting well, he’s unstoppable from midrange. Plus he’s shooting 43% from 3, and is one of the best in the league at attacking close outs. Oh, and he’s strong as hell with sick verticality, and he’s getting better by the day at finishing with either hand. How do you stop a guy like that? I don’t know what his ceiling is at this point.

 

[RorschachsMask]

He looks fantastic. That said, he is shooting 24% of his shots between 10 feet and the 3 point line and shooting about 80% on those which is not sustainable. Sincerely, party pooper.

I wonder will he ever be able to add more off the dribble 3s to his game, as I think that would really open things up for him in a big way.

It’s not even that it’s just unsustainable, he’s so hot from that range that he is DOUBLE his career numbers lol, and shooting them more from ever. Kawhis career high from midrange is around 48%, to put it in perspective.

I actually think he played better the first four games than he has the last three, despite the crazy shooting. The last three games he has 9 assists and 14 turnovers, after a having 13 assists and 5 turnovers the first four games.

I know this is nitpicky as all hell, but this is part of the deal to becoming an elite player. Tatum dealt with bouts of bad turnovers last year when he was starting to get far more offensive responsibility. Jaylen is a legendary hard worker, so I have zero doubts that he will shore this up.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Tatum, Jaylen and Marcus are 3, 5 and 6 in minutes played so far in the NBA. Jaylen’s 34 mpg is good for 26th overall and the highest of his career. Given the condensed season, I think that’s more than enough. A healthy Kemba would be huge, but we badly need a 3 and D innings eater from somewhere.

Jaylen’s been so flippin’ good. The separation he can get with his first step and footwork, plus the elevation he’s getting on his jumper means that if he’s shooting well, he’s unstoppable from midrange. Plus he’s shooting 43% from 3, and is one of the best in the league at attacking close outs. Oh, and he’s strong as hell with sick verticality, and he’s getting better by the day at finishing with either hand. How do you stop a guy like that? I don’t know what his ceiling is at this point.

How about giving him more minutes until the cavalry arrives and then scale it back? With Jaylen playing so well, he should be getting 37-38MPG, IMO. But reasonable minds can differ.

 

[lovegtm]

How about giving him more minutes until the cavalry arrives and then scale it back? With Jaylen playing so well, he should be getting 37-38MPG, IMO. But reasonable minds can differ.

I give coaches the benefit of the doubt when they decide to limit regular season minutes. Home court likely won’t mean a ton this year, and the Celtics will be comfortably in the playoffs.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

His rebound rate is down this year but I think a lot (all) of that is a role thing.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

How about giving him more minutes until the cavalry arrives and then scale it back? With Jaylen playing so well, he should be getting 37-38MPG, IMO. But reasonable minds can differ.

I’m sure he could handle it, even with how hard he goes, conditioning has never seemed like an issue for him, but given the weird season, I think it’s a good and safe plan to keep things somewhere between Thibs and Budenholzer.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I’m sure he could handle it, even with how hard he goes, conditioning has never seemed like an issue for him, but given the weird season, I think it’s a good and safe plan to keep things somewhere between Thibs and Budenholzer.

Yes, one thing I didn't really consider is that an injury to Jaylen or Tatum screws the Celtics so playing it safe does have some value. I'd still like to see Nesmith get some of those minutes.

 

[RorschachsMask]

His rebound rate is down this year but I think a lot (all) of that is a role thing.

It’s definitely a scheme thing, with the two bigs and Tatum playing, they’d rather Jaylen leak out and beast in transition.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

It’s definitely a scheme thing, with the two bigs and Tatum playing, they’d rather Jaylen leak out and beast in transition.

Yeah, and TT is one of the best rebounders in the league.

 

[The Social Chair]

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/chrisgrenham/status/1347031181141880833

 

[TripleOT]

Jaylen is shooting an insane 73% midrange (10 feet-3line) and takes 5 a game. He’s making 54% of all jump shots, which is ridiculous (and most likely unsustainable), and is hitting 41% from three.

Around half his offense is self generated (52.5% assisted) down from 67% for the rest of his career.

Very impressive outcome when talent and determination meet hard work.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Jaylen is shooting an insane 73% midrange (10 feet-3line) and takes 5 a game. He’s making 54% of all jump shots, which is ridiculous (and most likely unsustainable), and is hitting 41% from three.

Around half his offense is self generated (52.5% assisted) down from 67% for the rest of his career.

Very impressive outcome when talent and determination meet hard work.

While the percentage will certainly drop at some point, it'll only drop more or less because it must, not because he is on some insane streak of luck that will run out. Basically he has figured out how to get wide open, in-rhythm and well-balanced looks from 5-10 feet any time he wants.

I wonder when we'll see the step-back three incorporated into his game. He tried one the other night and it was right on line but fell short, and he didn't quite look comfortable with it the way he does stepping in to threes off the bounce. Given his explosive first step, he could do a lot of damage with that in his toolkit.

 

[TripleOT]

While the percentage will certainly drop at some point, it'll only drop more or less because it must, not because he is on some insane streak of luck that will run out. Basically he has figured out how to get wide open, in-rhythm and well-balanced looks from 5-10 feet any time he wants.

I wonder when we'll see the step-back three incorporated into his game. He tried one the other night and it was right on line but fell short, and he didn't quite look comfortable with it the way he does stepping in to threes off the bounce. Given his explosive first step, he could do a lot of damage with that in his toolkit.

Jaylen has been less accurate at 3-10 feet, at 38%, probably because of difficult layup attempts where he doesn’t get all the way to the rim.

As he transitions from a catch and shoot three point shooter to a self generating one, he will probably add the step back three to his bag. He already has the jump over three, which he used in Miami with a defender draped under him. Not many guys can jump as high as he can and still accurately hit the three.

 

[lovegtm]

Yeah, he has good touch and guys have to play off him, so you have to imagine the stepback 3 is coming.

Re his midranger--obviously it's unsustainable, but we forget sometimes that not all midrangers are created equal. If you are consistently getting good separation, it's a much higher-quality shot, and it's really freaking hard to get good separation against NBA defenders from 15 feet. Jaylen can do it, and it's a potentially elite skill that can unlock a lot.

 

[Jimbodandy]

I was really encouraged by his performance in the Miami game. Taking a cue from his partner, he found a way to impact the game materially even when his shot wasn't landing at the usual rates.

12R 5A 2B 2S 1TO.

If JB continues to develop in that space, he and JT are going to feed each other in all star games for the next decade.

 

[nighthob]

Yeah, he has good touch and guys have to play off him, so you have to imagine the stepback 3 is coming.

Re his midranger--obviously it's unsustainable, but we forget sometimes that not all midrangers are created equal. If you are consistently getting good separation, it's a much higher-quality shot, and it's really freaking hard to get good separation against NBA defenders from 15 feet. Jaylen can do it, and it's a potentially elite skill that can unlock a lot.

Yeah, his step back and fade are money in the 10’-16’ range. He’s getting huge separation on those shots because defenders have to keep him out of the paint. He should legitimately be able to hit those shots at a 55%-60% clip.

 

[lovegtm]

Brown with 5 games of 4+ assists. 9 all last year. Averaging 3.6 assists/36, up from 2.2.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Yeah, his step back and fade are money in the 10’-16’ range. He’s getting huge separation on those shots because defenders have to keep him out of the paint. He should legitimately be able to hit those shots at a 55%-60% clip.

Yeah om a lot of those shots, he's so open (because I guess opponents don't want to get posterized), it looks like he's shooting FTs.

 

[Euclis20]

Brown is now up to 80% at the FT line, and since going 5-10 on 12/29 against Indy, he's shooting 96% (24-25). His across the board improvement has really been remarkable, and if he keeps this up the whole year he's not just an all-star, he should be all-nba.

 

[luckiestman]

Is this the best non-rookie contract in the NBA?

 

[OurF'ingCity]

Is this the best non-rookie contract in the NBA?

Was just about to post that Jaylen taking this leap could not have been better timed from the Celtics’ perspective - his extension seemed reasonable at the time but if he keeps this up that contract is going to be an absolute steal.

 

[bigq]

I think it was Scal who last night said Brown is the best midrange shooter in the league. I don’t know enough about the NBA outside of the Celtics to have an informed opinion but 11 games into the season (SSS warning) he is shooting .667 from 10-16 feet and .594 from 16 feet to just inside the three point line which is pretty damn impressive.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Is this the best non-rookie contract in the NBA?

Other candidates:

Jokic: $28.5M (34th)
Brogdon: $20.7 (53rd)
LaVine: $19.5M (55th)

 

[Eddie Jurak]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXXsemV7KMo

 

[lovegtm]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXXsemV7KMo

Nice illustration of the additional equity strong midrange shooting brings in addition to the raw FG% from X feet.

 

[the moops]

Other candidates:

Jokic: $28.5M (34th)
Brogdon: $20.7 (53rd)
LaVine: $19.5M (55th)

Fred VanVleet is a good contract. Christian Wood too

 

[lovegtm]

Fred VanVleet is a good contract. Christian Wood too

Those are all good contracts, but out of the guys named, Jokic is the only one GMs would value more highly than Brown, which I think is the best way to approach the “who is the best sub-max contract?” question.