Four assists to zero TOs against the Bucks, in a game where he needed to press his offense, and did so. If he can have 4-5 apg and keep the TOs down, that’s going to be big.
It's dumb for players to not have this in their arsenal. Smart (and good) teams will take away what you want to do, and make you do what they want you to do. Chase you off the three-point line, yet protect the paint. Everyone tries to force you to take those midrange shots. Because the game is all drives to the paint and threes now, not many guys are good from 10-18 feet. If you can hit those consistently (6 for 9 is good), you're going to be really really tough to guard.
I think the Daryl Morey allergy to the midrange is not supported by the evidence. Some of the best offenses and some of the best offensive players in modern basketball have and use the midrange as a weapon. It is not a primary threat but a necessary counter to create the space for the money shots as you mention.
Yeah, not a perfect comparison but there are some similarities. In his 5th season, Kawhi averaged 21.2/6.8/2.6 on 51/44 (!!)/87 shooting. Jaylen is going to have higher volume than 2015-2016 Kawhi and his FT shooting isn't as good but I expect the counting stats to be similar. Their 2pt FG% is actually quite similar.
Yep. And don't misunderstand...I'm not saying the math is wrong and that teams should take the majority of their shots from midrange. I get that getting to the rim and getting open threes (especially corner threes) is how you score best. BUT...the other team knows that and works really hard to take those things away from you. And that means that the midrange looks are going to be there. If you can shoot 42% from midrange, you can still score a lot of points.
I think the analysis of the midrange-2 game sounds similar to the evolution of stolen base analysis in baseball. It's simplisitic to speak of them in terms of "dont do it," but should be more like "you have to shoot/steal a higher percentage than *that* if you do." Jaylen's 66.7% probably works.
When the pandemic is over, I want to take this post out for a nice tapas dinner and sangria and make sweet love to it all night long.
100% agree. At lower levels of play I don’t want my players stepping back to take a three when they can be stepping into a longer two in rhythm. Of course the solution is to start further back so you step into a three in rhythm.
Isn't this a bit part of Kemba's game? Yes, he's good from 3, and he has a lot of great moves to the basket, but his pull-ups at the elbows are deadly.
These are fascinating charts, which provide a lot of great insight into this discussion. And wholeheartedly agree teams shouldn’t be designing plays to get these inefficient shots. But over the course of a game/series/season, the threat to pull up from 15ft seems like it would allow the already high yielding areas to have even higher yields.
Bingo. Jakarta said it above. If the rotate man can just wait at the rim for you, that's a much harder shot for you. If he has to play you honest, your layups are easier shots.
My sense is that good midrange shooting is still highly valued, especially when paired with other skills. There was a discussion upthread about how stepping into a two was, if I understand correctly, better than stepping back into a three. While that may be true of specific players the league clearly values the latter act more highly. And with good reason - the math is plain that its the more efficient way to score.
I only briefly skimmed the article but I am correct he did not use FT attempts in his expected point per shot?
You can see that he's looking for it, which is a huge step imo. As you note, he's getting more comfortable both in space and traffic and seems to be making better decisions under control, including looking for the right teammate and not forcing. I'm a known Jaylen stan, but I'm really impressed by this development (3G SSS).
Yeah, he doesn’t have to become much of a playmaker to increase his value a lot, because the starting point was so low. There’s a fair amount of precedent for wings like him gradually adding reads for awhile into their careers.
Yeah, I agree with that position as well, and Jaylen's early season success with getting to his mid-range spot on the floor, and creating tons of space for his jumper with his suddenness and elevation really looks like the continuing of his Kawhification. Gordon used it very effectively, and I was hoping Jaylen would learn from him, in terms of how to get to his spots with patience, footwork and handles. It's funny that one of the most fundamental aspects of the game on offense now seems quaint when it used to be the first thing a kid like Jaylen would learn coming up, but it still can be a very important part of a scorer's bag. There may be shots that are typically better, in terms of expected points per attempt. but good (i.e. playoff) defenses can make those a lot harder, and this team will always need back up plans. Jaylen mastering the 16 foot turnaround would be a very good development.
I agree with all of these. I'd add one more: threes are shot at such a high percentage overall because so many of them are uncontested. Against a defense that guard out to the three point line well, there are basically 2 options: shoot them from deeper or go to the midrange. In practice, we see both of these.
The good news is that he can be a great player even if he's just an adequate playmaker, which seems completely achievable for him.
Would like to see him but get that FT% up above 75% but it’s a minor quibble at this point. He’s been great.
Right. Bubble Tatum basically put to bed any remaining thoughts I had that Brown might be a superior player at the end of their careers. But I would not be shocked if Brown ends up averaging close to 30 in a season at some point, due largely to the fact that hes playing next to Tatum.
I strongly disagree.
Maybe I'm reading it wrong, but you two seem to actually agree.
Maybe I'm reading his post wrong, but I don't think anyone mistook a bad handle for lack of vision. I think people took it correctly.... he had a bad handle.
