I definitely think Jaylen can be the 6 rebound part of that, since he averaged that last season. I would assume that actually is going to be a baseline for him.
Jaylen Brown re-signs for 4 years/$115 million
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We violently agree.
"To mistake X for Y" = to think that Y is present, when in fact the real thing is X.
"Jaylen Brown has very, very poor passing instincts" was definitely the consensus take of most (myself included). As you note, once he improved his bad handle, it turned out that he's probably closer to average in terms of making reads.
Gotcha
I guess wouldn't have worded it like you did then, just confirming I don't think anyone mistook his poor handle for anything else incorrectly.
But I see what you were saying, certainly possible people unfairly claimed he had a lack of a "vision" when the handle was the primary issue all along.
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JB's ball-handling has improved massively, it's still a little too loose, but will improve this season with his increased usage. His assist numbers will expand as he gets more attention + an improved handle.
BTW - no one likes to discuss the benefits of usage increase with ascending players, just lament the loss of declining max players.
BTW - no one likes to discuss the benefits of usage increase with ascending players, just lament the loss of declining max players.
In one of the tweets praising his game last night, the tweeter referred to Jaylen as a SG. That made me pause for a moment. It seems to me that he is in many ways the consummate new definition of "a wing" as he can play the (traditional) positions of 2, 3, or 4.
Tatum seems to be more a 3 or 4 as I don't think he has the quickness to be a traditional 2 on D. In that way, he reminds me of Cedric or Bird from days gone by, both of whom seemed to blend (and play) the traditional strengths of the 3 and the 4.
I'm hard-pressed to think of a good comp for JB in his ability to play all three traditional spots (SG, SF, PF) at such a high level.
Tatum seems to be more a 3 or 4 as I don't think he has the quickness to be a traditional 2 on D. In that way, he reminds me of Cedric or Bird from days gone by, both of whom seemed to blend (and play) the traditional strengths of the 3 and the 4.
I'm hard-pressed to think of a good comp for JB in his ability to play all three traditional spots (SG, SF, PF) at such a high level.
I didn't see this part of the game, so I don't know what happened, but a basket that Brown originally got credit for was later given to Tatum.
Brown started out as a raw athlete but he has added a ton of skill to that over the years and it shows.
Just think of all of the most athletic players in the NBA and you'll get your comp. I mean JB's like a bigger Marcus Smart or Tony Allen, just to name 2 guys from the Cs.
I mean think about it. Remember back in 2018 when he had a video racing his cousin, AJ Bouye? Bouye runs a 4.4. 40. JB outweighed him by probably 40 pounds at that point. That's pretty impressive.
And the anatomy of a 30 ppg shooter can be found JB's shooting percentages from 2P range. Obviously, he's on a super-hot streak shooting wise - particularly outside 10 feet - but he's going to shatter his career high in percentages this year. His shooting mechanics look a lot more consistent to my amateur eye.
|
Season |
Age |
2P |
0-3 |
3-10 |
10-16 |
16-3P |
|
2016-17 |
20 |
.507 |
.614 |
.382 |
.344 |
.290 |
|
2017-18 |
21 |
.507 |
.622 |
.321 |
.409 |
.368 |
|
2018-19 |
22 |
.529 |
.659 |
.400 |
.436 |
.368 |
|
2019-20 |
23 |
.543 |
.703 |
.407 |
.488 |
.362 |
|
2020-21 |
24 |
.606 |
.667 |
.481 |
.714 |
.688 |
Jaylen's draft day thread: https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/celtics-1st-round-selection-3rd-overall-jaylen-brown.14666/
That thread should be required reading next draft day for anyone who relies primarily on statistical models for nba prospects. As generally stats guy I can only say wow...reminder that it is important to take a broader view
Fortunately this is after I made the transition to "most people here know more than I do, but none of us know what a typical NBA GM (at least for the past ~10 years) does".
I called him Jeff Green minus benzos and I stand by it.
Somewhere his rookie year I think I compared him to Dominique but he is not that explosive
*I looked this up and people mocked my Dominique take. They’re on my shit list now.
Well we can be friends (from May 2016)
https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/celtics-16-17-roster-and-assets.14675/page-10#post-1973419
He's playing with tremendous speed in his decision making these days which I love. One thing I remember about Dirk is that he would get into his move or whatever he was going to do with the ball almost before he caught it. Jaylen has been very quick about attacking, or moving the ball if its not there. Contrast this with Tatum who has been comparatively more deliberate this year and at times I would say unsure of what he is trying to do.
Jaylen, last year, probably hit the peak of what a lot of people might have thought he could be if everything went absolutely right. And yet he keeps getting better still. Hard to put a value on a 99th percentile athlete who gets better every year.
For years he is going to be the new poster boy for drafting raw wings in the hope of developing their skills, but I doubt many will come close to matching his level of improvement.
For years he is going to be the new poster boy for drafting raw wings in the hope of developing their skills, but I doubt many will come close to matching his level of improvement.
I'm honestly just glad not to be alone in that. Different time of course, so you can't compare 3s. But Dominique could cover 2-4 when he felt like it, could get to the hole, and could elevate into a makeable jumper any damn time that he felt like it. They even move similarly to me.
I posted his BBRef here once and didn't get beaten up over it. The reaction was more "yeah sure, that would be fantastic". Well, it's happening.
His work ethic must be completely ludicrous. We’re talking in another thread about how Grant and Marcus came in out of shape after a long season with a 2 month layoff. Even Tatum looks like he’s trying to figure things out.
Jaylen came back and not only looks phenomenal, he’s added stuff to his game in that short window. The work ethic you can infer from that is completely off the charts, and I have to think he has more untapped upside, scary upside.
Yeah, this is what amazes me. They only had two months off and he’s somehow a noticeably different player this year. While he was a much improved player last year, there were still times when he occasionally made me a little nervous. But his ball handling and ability to finish at the rim are both stellar this year while his mid game range looks out of this world. And I was saying this before he scored 42. There has to be some regression in the shooting going forward, but the eye test really likes what it sees.
That sounds pretty close.
I'd throw in Ingram, Hield, LeVert, Poeltl to make it a Top 10
Brown's 3pt shooting is putting a very positive kink in his ascension over the last few seasons.
On another note, I've always hated comparing Brown with Tatum. When one plays well, it should help the other. BUT have been a steadfast Tatum > Brown over the years, partially due to age/help defense/shooting. I'm starting to sense the spread has narrowed between the two in the shooting dept. While I've always pointed to +/- over the course of a long season as a good barometer for help/team defense (and winning), that's the next area I'd like to see Jaylen narrow. With no Kemba/Gordon, Brad is going to need to split them up quite often throughout games and each will need to lead his unit. Jaylen's ability to isolate and score will also be reflected in +/- over a long season.
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Tatum is still younger and better at creating his own shot - an essential skill especially in the playoffs. While we might have been underrating Brown all along, I don't think Brown has done anything yet that should lead us to reevaluate which of them is better. Maybe Brown will turn out to be more of a 1A than a 2, though.
Tatum is better at getting his own stepback 3–I actually think Brown might be better already at getting his own midranger/drive.
His first step is so elite that, with his improved handle, he can generate a lot more separation than Tatum can.
There’s a strong case to be made that Jaylen should be the guy getting the “end of the game, down by 1” shots.
I’m not sure I wouldn’t take Jaylen #1 in that group. I wouldn’t trade Jaylen for him straight up at this point.
I’m not sure how much Jaylen improved from the end of the playoffs to now vs the end of the regular season to the bubble. For sure he improved a lot for both. But remember back to how he looked in the bubble pre playoffs? It wasn’t this god but it was pretty amazing. Playoff pressure and defenses had him revert a bit to the player he was pre bubble, I think. It was probably one part wanting to do what was best for the team and that meant not testing his limits in crucial moments — and another part that Lowry and FVF are such good on ball defenders that they completely destroyed him when he put the ball on the floor. His handle probably still isn’t good enough to look anything like this against those two going all out but I’m sure it’ll be much better next time around.
Dejounte Murray is breaking out this year, and Kris Dunn, Ivica Zubac, and Malik Beasley are solid rotation guys. 2016 draft looks like a pretty good crop. Too bad Guerschon Yabuselse never made it
I would imagine that a good part of his improvement is the fact that he has more responsibility for initiating and creating offense.
For example, this article - https://www.celticsblog.com/2020/12/31/22207542/jaylen-browns-stardom-is-reaching-its-logical-next-step - notes that JB has only taken 20+ shots 8 times in his career. That's like a month of games for RWB.
Yeah, Hayward’s departure would turn out to be fairly valuable if it takes that crutch away from Stevens, and forces him to throw Jaylen into the fire.
People forget that Bradley Beal wasn’t a primary guy in his first few years, and didn’t become BRADLEY BEAL until the Wizards forcefed him, and then had Wall’s extended absence. There are other such cases.
People forget that Bradley Beal wasn’t a primary guy in his first few years, and didn’t become BRADLEY BEAL until the Wizards forcefed him, and then had Wall’s extended absence. There are other such cases.
Jackie Mac was recently on Bill Simmons podcast and spoke about pressure last year from the Brown and Hayward camps about their guy getting a bigger role over the other guy. Jaylen and Gordon got along OK but that was a thing.
Fascinating. Did not realize it was so explicit--I was just inferring from on-court action.
We need Jackie Mac to write a book on this era of the Celtics, from the Kyrie collapse to the Hayward injury and return to the rise of Tatum and Brown. Plus lots of Marcus Smart anecdotes. You know she has a million inside stories like that and it’s a fascinating collection of characters that neatly encapsulate the modern NBA in terms of player empowerment and team building, and she’d be the perfect writer for it.
I think Brown is far less likely to reach his ceiling, but I think it's higher than Tatum's.
99th percentile athlete, 99th percentile work ethic.
99th percentile athlete, 99th percentile work ethic.
Interesting story and if true, it's interesting that it didn't come out last year.
I guess the takeaway is that you can have too many multi-skilled wings, at least too many to keep them all happy.
Brown actually walks the walk. Hayward gets to be the man in Charlotte now and he is still wildly inconsistent. It's only been 4 games but I don't think Brown will be seeing Gordon at the all star game this season.
The Kyrie walk year was such a mess that I wouldn't infer too much from it. Like a half dozen guys at each other for much of the year. And Hayward and Brown's agents lobbying on behalf of their client doesn't seem unusual either.
I'm wondering if anyone else is seeing this, but I feel like Brown seems to have more of plan with the ball in his hands compared to Tatum right now. When Brown drives it looks like he has a purpose, he knows exactly what he wants to do and where he wants to shoot from, he rarely takes a bad shot. Tatum seems to sometimes freestyle or bully his way to the hoop, and occasionally takes a really difficult shot. That's obviously no knock on Tatum, but Brown's offense seems more polished right now
Yup, this is exactly the point I was trying to make about the speed of their play right now. Jaylen is playing very fast.
What plays into that is Tatum deals with pretty consistent doubles and traps, he has to think more. He’s definitely settled for too many bad shots, and has had some bad turnovers, but opposing defenses are game planning to take the ball out of his hands.
Jaylen just gets the ball and attacks his man, and when he goes to the hoop, if he sees another defender coming, he has consistently made them pay by hitting the open big at the rim.
Jaylen just gets the ball and attacks his man, and when he goes to the hoop, if he sees another defender coming, he has consistently made them pay by hitting the open big at the rim.
The difference I see between Brown and Tatum is that Brown excels at getting good looks and Tatum excels at making tough shots. If Brown develops Tatum's shot making skills (and he has through a very short early season sample size), he's a very elite player. Tatum needs to be better at getting good looks, which might be a tougher hurdle, but he has consistently improved every year as well. Future is very bright for these two.
If Brown keeps it up, teams will start to focus on him more than Tatum and then Tatum will look like a world beater. The C's would have two top 10 players in the prime of their careers whose skillsets compliment each other.
Brown playing the way he has over the course of the season is the path to this team contending for multiple titles with just Brown/Tatum. Chances are Brown will regress a little but with his improvement and the rise of PP and TL... pretty good time to be a C's fan.
That seems like an odd way to phrase it though there may be somethign there. Also, the circumstances of Irving's and Hayward's departures are vastly different.
I think this is a very recency-biased opinion, and doesn't quite account for the differences in defensive attention paid to the 2 of them. Tatum took a step forward last Jan/Feb and Brown is taking one now, but how things ultimately work out remains to be seen.
I feel like a surprising thing the Celtics have yet to do is any Tatum/Brown pick and roll action. They can both set screens, now that Brown has shown himself capable of handling the ball in the pick and roll they can both do that, and they can both roll or pop.
Brown, too. And either one can roll/hit the roll man. Tatum can certainly just hit the shot if the defender can't get over the pick.
Could you imagine what Jaylen's numbers would look like if he didn't play with 2 centers clogging the lane, had another legitimate threat from 3, and had a PG that could penetrate/dish to him?
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