Jay Groome (2016 First Round pick)
- Thread starter Lose Remerswaal
- Start date
He actually had a couple more playoff appearances after those 4 innings at the end of the regular season, with this combined line
5.2 IP , 6 H, 3ER 2 BB 6 K on 9/5 and 9/10 with Lowell
https://www.milb.com/gameday/muckdogs-vs-spinners/2019/09/05/601393#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=box,game=601393
https://www.milb.com/gameday/spinners-vs-cyclones/2019/09/10/601397#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=box,game=601397
So, all together at Lowell 7.2 IP 9 H 4 ER, 3 BB 9 K. I could see starting him in Greenville, but I’d hope to have him in Salem by Memorial Day.
5.2 IP , 6 H, 3ER 2 BB 6 K on 9/5 and 9/10 with Lowell
https://www.milb.com/gameday/muckdogs-vs-spinners/2019/09/05/601393#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=box,game=601393
https://www.milb.com/gameday/spinners-vs-cyclones/2019/09/10/601397#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=box,game=601397
So, all together at Lowell 7.2 IP 9 H 4 ER, 3 BB 9 K. I could see starting him in Greenville, but I’d hope to have him in Salem by Memorial Day.
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I think we all need to temper expectations on Groome. I mean, what's his max for innings this year? 80? 100?
The problem is he will need to be added to the 40 man at the end of the season, so they are running out of time to evaluate what they have here. At this point is he develops as a back end starter it's a win.
The problem is he will need to be added to the 40 man at the end of the season, so they are running out of time to evaluate what they have here. At this point is he develops as a back end starter it's a win.
They can have him on the 40 while he's still in the minors so they aren't really running out of time. There's always some crap on the 40 man roster that protecting him shouldn't be an issue.
But yeah, probably around 100. As for expectations, I personally have zero.
But yeah, probably around 100. As for expectations, I personally have zero.
Memorial Day is a bit aggressive but from the article Oumbi posted, him being promoted after a few good months isn't out of the cards. That's probably mid June/early July. Not far off. I wouldn't be too surprised if his first handful of starts are as an opener either. It's probably a given, really. I said in some thread on the main board that his most likely path to the Majors is Greenville/Salem this year, Portland/Pawtucket next year and Boston in 2022. I don't know how that's going to work given he'll have IP restrictions. I'd rather have that problem than not have that problem tho. It means he developed and didn't get injured again.
I would think 120-130 innings, which seems to be about what they let high school draftees do in their first year. Then 140 next year and 160 in 2022.
He's not in a position of a high school draftee though. He's thrown 7 innings over the course of 2 years. I think 120-130 is pretty aggressive.
I wonder what the plan will be with him this year with MiLB cancelled. He needs the innings above all else. Will simulated innings have about the same effect if he is throwing them from home or whatever? Obviously he won't have the same developmental benefit, but I am asking purely in terms of building up his inning count to keep him physically on track.
Rough start to the year
7.1 ip, 15 hits, 13r, 12er, 2 HR, 11k/6bb. 14.73 era. K rate of 25% anyway.
7.1 ip, 15 hits, 13r, 12er, 2 HR, 11k/6bb. 14.73 era. K rate of 25% anyway.
Nope. Only thing I can find is that he was taken out of a game on 5/11 taking a liner off the shin. He's pitched since though.
Seems like velocity isn’t the problem:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mlb.com/amp/news/red-sox-minor-league-spring-training-report.html
“Groome got a chance to pitch in Major League camp and his stuff was electric in short outings, up to 97 mph," Crockett said. "He rode that momentum into Minor League camp and once he got stretched out, he continued to show good velocity, some 95s and 96s and a lot of 93s and 94s. His curveball is a good pitch that complements his fastball life, and his changeup and slider continue to develop."
Looking at his game log it seems like his command isn't great, but his most recent outing he threw 38 strikes in 50 pitches and only walked one. I'd guess he just has a lot of rust to shake off. SSS etc.
HIs last start, he was cruising thru 3. 3.0 ip, 1 hit, 1er, 0bb/4k (all swinging). 4 ground outs, 1 pop out, and 1 fly ball hit (triple).
Then the 4th inning happened. Single on a soft liner, a fielder's choice that ended in an error and no outs. Followed by a HR, followed by a walk. Pulled.
He was cruising today. Thru 3.2, He gave up 0 hits, 1bb/7k. Then he gave up a single and a walk.
Mound visit atm.
Mound visit atm.
Walks the next 2 guys, walking in a run in the process. 12 of his last 13 pitches have been balls.
Pitching change with the bases loaded.
edit: Final line of 3.2 ip, 1 hit, 1 er, 4bb/7k.
Pitching change with the bases loaded.
edit: Final line of 3.2 ip, 1 hit, 1 er, 4bb/7k.
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3.0 ip, 1 hit, 0bb/3k so far tonight. He's been falling apart after 3 his previous starts so lets see how it goes this time around.
Clean inning. Strikes out the last batter on 2 horrible strike calls.
4.0, 1 hit, 0bb/4k. He's had 43 pitches. Maybe he'll be out for 5. 4 is already a season high.
edit: 5th inning he hit a batter. Batter stole 2nd and reached 3rd on an error. Sac Fly, Ground out, GO. 63 pitches.
5.0 ip, 1 hit, 1r/1er, 0bb/4k.
4.0, 1 hit, 0bb/4k. He's had 43 pitches. Maybe he'll be out for 5. 4 is already a season high.
edit: 5th inning he hit a batter. Batter stole 2nd and reached 3rd on an error. Sac Fly, Ground out, GO. 63 pitches.
5.0 ip, 1 hit, 1r/1er, 0bb/4k.
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5.0 ip, 4 hits, 3r/3er, 1bb/8k, 1 HRA tonight. 77 pitches, 53 strikes. 7 swinging strike outs.
Gave up all 3 er in the 3rd, 3 run HR.
Gave up all 3 er in the 3rd, 3 run HR.
4.0 ip, 8 hits, 4r, 2er, 1bb/4k yesterday.
76 pitches, 52 strikes. 8 strikes swinging. 6 line drives.
76 pitches, 52 strikes. 8 strikes swinging. 6 line drives.
His last 4 starts are really encouraging. One has to think the HRs are fluky and driving up the ERA. I have Bello as the Sox best pitching prospect but Groome is 1b. If it weren't for healthy concerns, he'd be 1A.
Last 4 games
5.2 ip, 5 hits, 3r/3er, 4bb/8k,
6.0 ip, 5 hits, 4r/4er, 1bb/8k, 3 HRA
6.0 ip, 2 hits, 2r/2er, 1bb/9k, 1 HRA
5.1 ip, 1 hit, 2r/2er, 2bb/9k
Combined 4 starts, 4.30 era, 23.0 ip, 13 hits, 4 HRA, 8bb/34k. 38.2% K rate, 9.0% BB rate. Hitters slashing .163/.236/.325 on a .209 BAbip in 89 PA. 64% strikes, 16% strikes looking, 17% Strike Swinging.
Ignoring his first 3 starts of the season: 9 games, 3.60 era, 45.0 ip, 30 hits, 5 HRA, 18bb/64k. 35.2% K rate, 9.9% BB rate. Hitters slashing .186/.269/.304 on a .266 BAbip in 182 PA. 63%/15%/16%.
First 3 games: 14.73 era, 7.1 ip, 15 hits, 2 HRA, 6bb/11k. 13 Runs/12 earned. Season line: 5.16 era, 52.1 ip, 45 hits, 7 HRA, 24bb/75k.
Last 4 games
5.2 ip, 5 hits, 3r/3er, 4bb/8k,
6.0 ip, 5 hits, 4r/4er, 1bb/8k, 3 HRA
6.0 ip, 2 hits, 2r/2er, 1bb/9k, 1 HRA
5.1 ip, 1 hit, 2r/2er, 2bb/9k
Combined 4 starts, 4.30 era, 23.0 ip, 13 hits, 4 HRA, 8bb/34k. 38.2% K rate, 9.0% BB rate. Hitters slashing .163/.236/.325 on a .209 BAbip in 89 PA. 64% strikes, 16% strikes looking, 17% Strike Swinging.
Ignoring his first 3 starts of the season: 9 games, 3.60 era, 45.0 ip, 30 hits, 5 HRA, 18bb/64k. 35.2% K rate, 9.9% BB rate. Hitters slashing .186/.269/.304 on a .266 BAbip in 182 PA. 63%/15%/16%.
First 3 games: 14.73 era, 7.1 ip, 15 hits, 2 HRA, 6bb/11k. 13 Runs/12 earned. Season line: 5.16 era, 52.1 ip, 45 hits, 7 HRA, 24bb/75k.
Klaw had a pretty encouraging take on him from a recent article on Mayer:
"Were it not for Mayer, Boston’s best prospect now might be resurgent left-hander Jay Groome, who has come back from two lost years after Tommy John surgery and a tough start to 2021 to strike out 53 in 36 1/3 innings since the start of June with 14 walks."
https://theathletic.com/2714763/2021/07/19/law-which-teams-just-drafted-their-new-no-1-prospects?source=user-shared-article
"Were it not for Mayer, Boston’s best prospect now might be resurgent left-hander Jay Groome, who has come back from two lost years after Tommy John surgery and a tough start to 2021 to strike out 53 in 36 1/3 innings since the start of June with 14 walks."
https://theathletic.com/2714763/2021/07/19/law-which-teams-just-drafted-their-new-no-1-prospects?source=user-shared-article
Geez... what about Casas!?!?! But seriously- Groome's rebound has to really bump up the Sox farm rank. Suddenly it's pitching depth is really looking good- with Bello, Groome, Seabold, Ramirez and Mata (hopefully returns to high prospect rank after rehab) along with Whitlock and Houck at the ML levels.
Thrilled about Groome this year, but I don't know if he's ahead of Bello, let alone Casas.
This has been a great year for the system.
This has been a great year for the system.
If you ignored the injury history, it would be easier. I agree that Bello is the best pitching prospect in the farm but Groome is 1b. I'm also a huge Bello fanboy so I'm biased.
Casas is also having a mediocre year.
Not to go too far down the Casas rabbit hole, but he was awesome before the Olympic Qualifiers (did will during thee qualifiers), slumped on his return, and then had a really strong July before heading back to Japan.
He's still a top 40 prospect across baseball, I've seen a number of media prospect folks asked about his power slump from earlier this summer and so far no one expressed any real concern.
I guess that's just a long way of me saying that scouting the box score is fine, but the information is limited. Especially for such a young prospect in AA (I'd be curious how many pitchers younger than him, Casas has faced).
To get back on Groome - it's worth remembering how after drafting of Mayer, Boston now has been able to draft arguably the most well-regarded prospect twice in recent years. The other being Groome. If he continues to improve and becomes a major league contributor he'll have overcome so much adversity on his journey. Between all the injuries, the stuff with his father, a lot of guys would have given up.
Groome has put in a lot of work to get to this point and should be commended for it. I'm of course rooting for the kid as he a Red Sox, but given the history, and the makeup concerns that led him to falling to us in the first place, he's had to overcome a lot and is easy to root for.
He's still a top 40 prospect across baseball, I've seen a number of media prospect folks asked about his power slump from earlier this summer and so far no one expressed any real concern.
I guess that's just a long way of me saying that scouting the box score is fine, but the information is limited. Especially for such a young prospect in AA (I'd be curious how many pitchers younger than him, Casas has faced).
To get back on Groome - it's worth remembering how after drafting of Mayer, Boston now has been able to draft arguably the most well-regarded prospect twice in recent years. The other being Groome. If he continues to improve and becomes a major league contributor he'll have overcome so much adversity on his journey. Between all the injuries, the stuff with his father, a lot of guys would have given up.
Groome has put in a lot of work to get to this point and should be commended for it. I'm of course rooting for the kid as he a Red Sox, but given the history, and the makeup concerns that led him to falling to us in the first place, he's had to overcome a lot and is easy to root for.
Yeah, I wasn't trying to sound down on Casas. As you said, he's still a top 40 prospect and he's had a few schedule breaks. He's still a 21 year old in Portland and that's after a year break. I just don't think it is an outlandish stance to have Jay Groome ahead of him with a huge health caveat.
To answer you Casas question, he has 19 PA against pitchers younger than him, 178 against older.
Back to Groome, he himself is a former top 40 prospect. He's just hard to rank now because the track record is the track record. The stuff is clearly there though and he's been exceling of late.
Posting here to be in the conversation, but I expect these to wind up in the Casas thread:
KLaw Is entitled to his opinion, but he’s also going pretty far into Hot-take LF with this one.I don’t think any other prospect evaluation specialist has Groome over Casas. We’re going to need to get something from Groome before he gets pushed off the roster, so the positive assessment is welcome, but if you posited a 1 for 1 trade, does anyone but KLaw take Groome?
KLaw Is entitled to his opinion, but he’s also going pretty far into Hot-take LF with this one.I don’t think any other prospect evaluation specialist has Groome over Casas. We’re going to need to get something from Groome before he gets pushed off the roster, so the positive assessment is welcome, but if you posited a 1 for 1 trade, does anyone but KLaw take Groome?
I doubt it. I'm not very high on Casas personally, and I would easily favor him over Groome. I do think that Groome has a reasonable chance to become a solid MLB asset at some point in some type of role. I haven't put a lot of weight on his statistical results because of the way injuries have impacted his pro career, but before he can really be considered in the tier of a prospect like Casas there just has to be significant statistical improvements. On soxprospects.com they note in their summation that his stuff hadn't yet returned to pre-surgery levels, maybe that's what we're seeing starting to happen now since the beginning of June. If he can stay on the field, he still has a lot of promise. The sox opted to put him on the 40-man, so they believe in him.
The biggest thing I’ve learned in my 15 yrs in Greenville is any player A+ and lower is a lottery ticket. Xander was a sure thing. So smart. His teammates loved him.
Devers was a freak.
Was at Tendi’s first game with Nip. Sox flew in his family and they were behind us. His dad was giving me BS answers to my questions about how he felt about his future with the Sox.
Finally told him that any kid that wins the Golden Spikes award has a pretty good shot.
He smiled.
Injuries suuuuuuuuuck.
They all are lottery tickets.
Devers was a freak.
Was at Tendi’s first game with Nip. Sox flew in his family and they were behind us. His dad was giving me BS answers to my questions about how he felt about his future with the Sox.
Finally told him that any kid that wins the Golden Spikes award has a pretty good shot.
He smiled.
Injuries suuuuuuuuuck.
They all are lottery tickets.
Reading his Sox prospects page it was mentioned that he’s got 4 pitches now but nothing above average. That works in A+…not so much in AA. Sounds like he needed a bigger challenge. Rooting for him.
They elaborate on the podcast that the high-end velocity on the fastball has not seemed to return post surgery and the curve ball which used to be his best offspeed is now just an above average pitch.
I had not realized that, following the box scores for a lot of starts this year. They feel Groome now has a back of the rotation ceiling because of the change in stuff.
That said, still a super-interesting guy. If he can keep it together and stay healthy and make the MLB rotation, he could provide a lot of value as soon as late 2022 or 2023.
who knows, maybe he puts it together conditioning-wise and becomes a really good, cheap, 4-5 starter.
Yes the SP podcast report was a little underwhelming/disappointing to me too as I think my expectations for Groome had started to rise again.
I think my overall take is still a little more optimistic than Ian’s if you step back though. I get that this far out from TJ it’s not wise to expect a lot more improvement in his stuff so totally reasonable to temper the projection now.
Four average pitches still puts him in a Seabold-type 4-5 starter slot which could definitely be really valuable to the team in a year or two.
But it also seems like just getting him through a full professional season, building his innings and getting to AA is a HUGE win for him and the organization. I think at the beginning of the year that’d be just about a best case scenario for Groome and with his slow start not one many would have hoped for.
They mentioned the conditioning and I’m still going to cross my fingers and hope that he can get a little more FB velocity back and nudge that ceiling higher again next year.
I think my overall take is still a little more optimistic than Ian’s if you step back though. I get that this far out from TJ it’s not wise to expect a lot more improvement in his stuff so totally reasonable to temper the projection now.
Four average pitches still puts him in a Seabold-type 4-5 starter slot which could definitely be really valuable to the team in a year or two.
But it also seems like just getting him through a full professional season, building his innings and getting to AA is a HUGE win for him and the organization. I think at the beginning of the year that’d be just about a best case scenario for Groome and with his slow start not one many would have hoped for.
They mentioned the conditioning and I’m still going to cross my fingers and hope that he can get a little more FB velocity back and nudge that ceiling higher again next year.
FWIW, he was allegedly sitting in the mid 90s at the end of his debut in AA, this week.
I think MIL has the right take on this. He's made it through a healthy season and performed. Given what the expectations were for Groome this year, that's a huge win.
Does he have the upside of being a number 2 starter? Probably not unless his curve ball returns to a 60 and his fastball remains in that 94/95 ballpark. But the fact that he's turned his slider and change, which were once just show me pitches into average offerings is great.
The conditioning will probably always be a concern with him, some of that is genetic. His body type is always going to require him to condition like crazy to stay in great shape. But as is, if he stays healthy, he could be a 4 or 5. That's super valuable.
I think MIL has the right take on this. He's made it through a healthy season and performed. Given what the expectations were for Groome this year, that's a huge win.
Does he have the upside of being a number 2 starter? Probably not unless his curve ball returns to a 60 and his fastball remains in that 94/95 ballpark. But the fact that he's turned his slider and change, which were once just show me pitches into average offerings is great.
The conditioning will probably always be a concern with him, some of that is genetic. His body type is always going to require him to condition like crazy to stay in great shape. But as is, if he stays healthy, he could be a 4 or 5. That's super valuable.
I was wondering if a move to the pen would ever be in the cards but with the pitch profile, probably not.