Memorial Day is a bit aggressive but from the article Oumbi posted, him being promoted after a few good months isn't out of the cards. That's probably mid June/early July. Not far off. I wouldn't be too surprised if his first handful of starts are as an opener either. It's probably a given, really. I said in some thread on the main board that his most likely path to the Majors is Greenville/Salem this year, Portland/Pawtucket next year and Boston in 2022. I don't know how that's going to work given he'll have IP restrictions. I'd rather have that problem than not have that problem tho. It means he developed and didn't get injured again.He actually had a couple more playoff appearances after those 4 innings at the end of the regular season, with this combined line
5.2 IP , 6 H, 3ER 2 BB 6 K on 9/5 and 9/10 with Lowell
So, all together at Lowell 7.2 IP 9 H 4 ER, 3 BB 9 K. I could see starting him in Greenville, but I’d hope to have him in Salem by Memorial Day.
While Groome first pitched in Greenville in 2017, expect him to start the year back there in 2020. The Red Sox need Groome to be as good as he can be and have little incentive to rush him too much. If he pitches well over the first couple months of the year a promotion to Salem is certainly in the cards with an eye at starting 2021 in Portland, but they aren’t — and shouldn’t — going to put the cart before the horse. Groome has the pedigree, but he can’t get by just on that anymore.
I would think 120-130 innings, which seems to be about what they let high school draftees do in their first year. Then 140 next year and 160 in 2022.I think we all need to temper expectations on Groome. I mean, what's his max for innings this year? 80? 100?
The problem is he will need to be added to the 40 man at the end of the season, so they are running out of time to evaluate what they have here. At this point is he develops as a back end starter it's a win.
Seems like velocity isn’t the problem:Any idea what his velocity has been?
Looking at his game log it seems like his command isn't great, but his most recent outing he threw 38 strikes in 50 pitches and only walked one. I'd guess he just has a lot of rust to shake off. SSS etc.Seems like velocity isn’t the problem:
“Groome got a chance to pitch in Major League camp and his stuff was electric in short outings, up to 97 mph," Crockett said. "He rode that momentum into Minor League camp and once he got stretched out, he continued to show good velocity, some 95s and 96s and a lot of 93s and 94s. His curveball is a good pitch that complements his fastball life, and his changeup and slider continue to develop."
HIs last start, he was cruising thru 3. 3.0 ip, 1 hit, 1er, 0bb/4k (all swinging). 4 ground outs, 1 pop out, and 1 fly ball hit (triple).Looking at his game log it seems like his command isn't great, but his most recent outing he threw 38 strikes in 50 pitches and only walked one. I'd guess he just has a lot of rust to shake off. SSS etc.
Geez... what about Casas!?!?! But seriously- Groome's rebound has to really bump up the Sox farm rank. Suddenly it's pitching depth is really looking good- with Bello, Groome, Seabold, Ramirez and Mata (hopefully returns to high prospect rank after rehab) along with Whitlock and Houck at the ML levels.Klaw had a pretty encouraging take on him from a recent article on Mayer:
"Were it not for Mayer, Boston’s best prospect now might be resurgent left-hander Jay Groome, who has come back from two lost years after Tommy John surgery and a tough start to 2021 to strike out 53 in 36 1/3 innings since the start of June with 14 walks."
If you ignored the injury history, it would be easier. I agree that Bello is the best pitching prospect in the farm but Groome is 1b. I'm also a huge Bello fanboy so I'm biased.Thrilled about Groome this year, but I don't know if he's ahead of Bello, let alone Casas.
This has been a great year for the system.
Yeah, I wasn't trying to sound down on Casas. As you said, he's still a top 40 prospect and he's had a few schedule breaks. He's still a 21 year old in Portland and that's after a year break. I just don't think it is an outlandish stance to have Jay Groome ahead of him with a huge health caveat.Not to go too far down the Casas rabbit hole, but he was awesome before the Olympic Qualifiers (did will during thee qualifiers), slumped on his return, and then had a really strong July before heading back to Japan.
He's still a top 40 prospect across baseball, I've seen a number of media prospect folks asked about his power slump from earlier this summer and so far no one expressed any real concern.
I guess that's just a long way of me saying that scouting the box score is fine, but the information is limited. Especially for such a young prospect in AA (I'd be curious how many pitchers younger than him, Casas has faced).
To get back on Groome - it's worth remembering how after drafting of Mayer, Boston now has been able to draft arguably the most well-regarded prospect twice in recent years. The other being Groome. If he continues to improve and becomes a major league contributor he'll have overcome so much adversity on his journey. Between all the injuries, the stuff with his father, a lot of guys would have given up.
Groome has put in a lot of work to get to this point and should be commended for it. I'm of course rooting for the kid as he a Red Sox, but given the history, and the makeup concerns that led him to falling to us in the first place, he's had to overcome a lot and is easy to root for.
I doubt it. I'm not very high on Casas personally, and I would easily favor him over Groome. I do think that Groome has a reasonable chance to become a solid MLB asset at some point in some type of role. I haven't put a lot of weight on his statistical results because of the way injuries have impacted his pro career, but before he can really be considered in the tier of a prospect like Casas there just has to be significant statistical improvements. On soxprospects.com they note in their summation that his stuff hadn't yet returned to pre-surgery levels, maybe that's what we're seeing starting to happen now since the beginning of June. If he can stay on the field, he still has a lot of promise. The sox opted to put him on the 40-man, so they believe in him.We’re going to need to get something from Groome before he gets pushed off the roster, so the positive assessment is welcome, but if you posited a 1 for 1 trade, does anyone but KLaw take Groome?
They elaborate on the podcast that the high-end velocity on the fastball has not seemed to return post surgery and the curve ball which used to be his best offspeed is now just an above average pitch.Reading his Sox prospects page it was mentioned that he’s got 4 pitches now but nothing above average. That works in A+…not so much in AA. Sounds like he needed a bigger challenge. Rooting for him.