Jarren Duran

The Gray Eagle

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2001
12,973
Duran was a 2018 7th round draft pick out of Long Beach State, where he played second base. He is a LH hitter with plus speed, which the team is trying to maximize by playing him in CF. Sox Prospects describes him thus: "Tall, lean frame. Quick-twitch athlete. Athleticism stands out on the field. Has room to add strength in his upper body."




In three seasons as starting second baseman at Long Beach, Duran hit .295 in 168 games, with 122 runs scored and 10 triples. He had his best year as a junior, when he hit .304 for 42 runs.

“He’s made huge strides, huge strides in his game,” Long Beach State head coach Troy Buckley told the Orange County Register during the season. “JD has really, really grown up here to be a more mature player and a more mature person.”

Duran was ranked the No. 170 prospect in the 2018 MLB Draft by Baseball America. It called him a “consistent performer with speed as his standout tool” and a Player to Watch.

Duran also made an impact in the Cape Cod League before his junior year, hitting .281 with 10 steals in 34 games for the Wareham Gatemen. The Red Sox drafted him No. 220 overall and signed him for a $189,800 bonus.

In his 37 games with Lowell last year, Duran put up a 348/393/548 line, with 10 triples.

Promoted to Greenville, he slashed 367/396/477 in 128 at-bats.

He's starting this year in Salem and has gone 12 for his first 29, so far slashing 414/433/552.

He's off to a decent start in his short pro career.

So far he has played 74 games at 3 levels, and combined, he is hitting .362, with a .398 OBP and .519 slugging, with 26 stolen bases in 36 attempts.
(As I was typing this up, he made an out and his batting average plummeted 8 points. So I guess it's over, he's sinking like a stone and will be a bust.)

He is not projected to hit for power, despite being 6'2" and 200 pounds. Sox Prospects again:
"Well below-average power potential. Will run into a few home runs per year, but swing isn’t geared for over-the-fence power. Double and triple numbers will be inflated by speed rather than by power. However, changed initial setup, having started from a wide stance before coming up and back at Long Beach State to now starting more upright, which has allowed him to at least tap into more gap-to-gap power than expected."

As a fast LH CF, he reminds me a bit of Jacoby Ellsbury, though without as much star potential. Ellsbury was a first round pick who walked more and was already settled in CF. At age 21, Ellsbury had an .850 OPS at Lowell in 35 games, which isn't so different from Duran's debut. Ellsbury followed that up with an .808 OPS in high A and AA at age 22. It will be interesting to see if Duran can have a similar second pro season. He's off to a good start at least.

Sox Prospects says Duran does not have hands of stone:
"Potential above-average defender at either second base or in the outfield. Needs work in the outfield to reach that potential because he is raw, having just been introduced to the position. Converted to the outfield in pro ball and showed a slow first step in center field, struggling with initial reads. Was able to make up for that due to his speed, but clearly wasn’t comfortable. Moved to right field in Greenville, where line to plate is similar to second base, which should help acclimation to the outfield. Long-term, has the speed and athleticism teams covet for center field. At second base, showed soft hands and fluid actions, though athleticism was wasted."

His Lowell manager praised his mentality, which is good to hear:
“Jarren is special,” said Lowell Spinners manager Corey Wimberly. “I think he has the mentality and tools to go far in this game. From that first at-bat, you could see it. He is going to be a very, very special player to watch... Right away he impressed us,” said Wimberly. “He has the right makeup and mindset. He came out, worked hard and is definitely a competitor. I think that’s a big part of his success.
“He is aggressive but also smart. He swings well through the fastballs and the breaking balls, and he has a good idea of the strike zone. His speed is the most impressive part of the game, but he has some power, too.”
 

Koufax

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
4,410
Now hitting .398/450/.516 leading all of minor league baseball in average and, according to Alex Spier, has a Jacoby Ellsbury gear on the bases, one that he relishes using.
 

normstalls

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 15, 2004
3,307

Timely tweet by Red Sox Stats.


A note on Jarren Duran's speed: On video I have him going from contact to 2B on a double last night in 7.5 secs including a bad slide. At one point last summer Dee Gordon did it in 7.64 and was the 4th fastest of the year, with the top three spots belonging to Billy Hamilton.
 

The Gray Eagle

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2001
12,973
After a brutal 0 for 7 slump earlier in the month, Duran is back up to speed, going 16 for his last 29 to get his season numbers up to a halfway decent .413/.472/.538, good for a 1.010 OPS in 143 PAs.
Only 1 HR, but 9 doubles and 3 triples, with 14 walks, 33 Ks, and 13 stolen bases in 18 attempts. At least one of those caught stealings came the other day when he was caught trying to steal home:
"With two outs, Duran was nailed trying to steal home.
"I'm always looking first-pitch," he said. "It was a first-pitch fastball. That's usually your best pitch. The pitcher is trying to get ahead early, especially at the beginning of the game."

As of Tuesday when the article was written: "Duran leads the Carolina League in batting (.412), hits (54), runs (34), OBP (.469) and stolen bases (13). His 1.011 OPS stands second."

He's LHH, so it's nice that he is hitting lefties okay, going 23 for 49 so far (.469/.519/.571.)

In his first 102 games as a pro at all levels, he's hitting a combined .376/.421/.523, for a .944 OPS.

We must have an amazing farm system, since we have 9 prospects rated higher than this guy. To be fair, Chavis is in the majors now, so maybe Duran can move up to #9 in the system.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,415
The wrong side of the bridge....
"With two outs, Duran was nailed trying to steal home.
"I'm always looking first-pitch," he said. "It was a first-pitch fastball. That's usually your best pitch. The pitcher is trying to get ahead early, especially at the beginning of the game."
I don't understand why you'd want to steal home on a first-pitch fastball. Wouldn't that generally be about the easiest pitch of the whole PA for the catcher to pick cleanly and pivot into the tag from?
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
10,538
Last 20 games: 96 PA, .452/.521/.560, 10bb/20k, 8/11 SB.
In those 20 games, he reached based at least once 19 times, twice 17 times, thrice 10 times, 2 times twice, and 5 times once. He has been on base 50 times in the last 20 games. That is ridiculous. His BAbip for that time period is .594. For the year, it's .536.
 

Byrdbrain

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
8,553
I don't understand why you'd want to steal home on a first-pitch fastball. Wouldn't that generally be about the easiest pitch of the whole PA for the catcher to pick cleanly and pivot into the tag from?
Those two statements aren't related, the 1st pitch FB is his hitting approach.
If you click through to the article they two lines were in different paragraphs, the thrown out at home was a statement from the author and the 1st pitch stuff was a quote from Duran.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
5,228
22 year old with 3 years of college ball experience, shouldn't he be moving up to Portland soon?
 

amRadio

lurker
Feb 7, 2019
171
Since taking an 0-4 on the 19th he's 18/62 raising his overall line to .240/.298/.298. Signs of life at AA. Could be a quick riser from here if he keeps hitting. He could realistically be on the roster at some point next year.
 

pantsparty

Member
SoSH Member
May 2, 2011
374
Duran represented the Red Sox in the All-Star Futures game, singling once in two at-bats and stealing second. I have no idea how he actually looked because I didn't watch the game.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
10,538
Not the perfect comp, but Jarren Duran gives me non 2011 Jacoby Ellsbury vibes. Ellsbury was the better base stealer, drew slightly more walks and struck out less while Duran has made more contact and has more positional versatility due to being right handed. They were also at the same level at the same age so their stats are comparable. Hell, Duran's birthday is 9/5 while Ellsbury's is 9/11.

Ellsbury took 2 years to reach Boston. With normal development, Duran should probably get to Boston in 2 years as well. He'd finish this year in Portland and depending on how he finishes, possibly start the year in AAA. Both play CF, both bat lefty, both are known for their speed, both hit for very little power in the minors. Duran doesn't have a great arm either but it's a lot better than Ellsbury's.

Of course, a healthy version of non 2011 Jacoby Ellsbury is a really valuable player.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 26, 2006
8,392
This adds nothing to the conversation but worth noting that his walk-up music is Hungry Like the Wolf.
Can confirm. My boy made a poster for him last night. Really the only Sea Dog to root for right now, though we got lucky and saw McGrath last night. He might be real.
 

amRadio

lurker
Feb 7, 2019
171
Since my last post in here on July 9th Duran Duran has hit .282/.340/.359 with 19 steals to 3 CS in his last 157 PAs at AA. He's alive.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
2,475
Since my last post in here on July 9th Duran Duran has hit .282/.340/.359 with 19 steals to 3 CS in his last 157 PAs at AA. He's alive.
I'm not seeing what the excitement about Duran is.... he's already pretty old for Portland, no? And unless he's a defensive genius, that batting line doesn't look impressive in the slightest to me. I'm not a heavy follower of prospects though so... I dunno......
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
38,006
I'm not seeing what the excitement about Duran is.... he's already pretty old for Portland, no? And unless he's a defensive genius, that batting line doesn't look impressive in the slightest to me. I'm not a heavy follower of prospects though so... I dunno......
Per b-ref he's 2.1 years younger than average Eastern League player.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
2,475
Per b-ref he's 2.1 years younger than average Eastern League player.
I guess I was looking right across his Sox Prospects line and jumped up to Dalbec's line and saw 24. Then I wondered why I have heard it said many times that Dalbec was old for Portland when he would have been "average".
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
7,932
I guess I was looking right across his Sox Prospects line and jumped up to Dalbec's line and saw 24. Then I wondered why I have heard it said many times that Dalbec was old for Portland when he would have been "average".
He’s old to be an elite prospect if you’re looking at his EL performance. However the juiced ball does add a wrinkle to Dalbec evaluations. He might be a better MLB hitter than minor league one.

As for Duran, the EL offensive suppression aside, he still needs to hit better. Even better than his recent streak. But if he could get to .750 OPS in the EL, then there’s official reason to hope.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
10,538
I guess I was looking right across his Sox Prospects line and jumped up to Dalbec's line and saw 24. Then I wondered why I have heard it said many times that Dalbec was old for Portland when he would have been "average".
The average age of a player and the average age of a legit prospect are 2 different things. There are 28 and 29 year old filler in leagues bringing the average age up. With that said, Duran isn't old for the league. He doesn't turn 23 for another month. 22 going on 23 is about the age of real prospects in AA.

To date, all his success has been based off very high BAbips. He is very, very fast and projects to be a good CF.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 26, 2006
8,392
He's like Ichiro-fast. He regularly makes balls to the left side of the infield into hits that have no business being hits. He puts a ton of pressure on the defense. But he hits for very little power, even in a low-power league. Having seen Benintendi, Moncada, Devers, etc., very recently, he doesn't have their look on the field. I know it sounds "old school," but in AA you can pick out the guys destined for the majors pretty quickly.

Duran's only plus-plus skill is speed as far as I've seen, and I'm not sure that's going to be enough.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,415
The wrong side of the bridge....
He's like Ichiro-fast. He regularly makes balls to the left side of the infield into hits that have no business being hits. He puts a ton of pressure on the defense. But he hits for very little power, even in a low-power league. Having seen Benintendi, Moncada, Devers, etc., very recently, he doesn't have their look on the field. I know it sounds "old school," but in AA you can pick out the guys destined for the majors pretty quickly.

Duran's only plus-plus skill is speed as far as I've seen, and I'm not sure that's going to be enough.
The thing that worries me so far is the true-outcomes numbers. A no-power guy can still be a very good offensive player if he is really good at getting on base. But to be good at getting on base without any power you have to have either plus discipline, plus contact skills, or (preferably) some of each. So far Duran is looking unexceptional on both counts. He's not going to have a .400+ BABIP in the majors, which is how he's accumulated the gaudy slash lines so far.
 

The Gray Eagle

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2001
12,973
In 82 games in Portland Duran finished at 250/309/325, not impressive numbers.
He turned 23 on September 5th.

He is playing in the Arizona Fall League for the Peoria Javelinas, and got off to a good start, before going 2 for his last 19 to knock his current numbers down to 262/340/381 in his first 38 at-bats, with 5 walks and 9 Ks.

From Chad Jennings in the Athletic has a positive take on Duran:
"The question is, how quickly can he rise through the system. In his first full season, he’s already reached Double A, a tremendous showing by a seventh-round pick who’s become the top outfield prospect in the system. Double A was a challenge, but he seemed to find his footing. “Maybe he tried to do a little too much early on and tried to elevate his game in Double A,” Crockett said. “And I think that learning opportunity presented itself for him to understand that he could be himself and have success at that level and continue, kind of, small adjustments instead of big ones.”