Jarren Duran: Today We Like Him

moretsyndrome

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Yeah, I’m wondering how bad he must have been at 2B to be moved to the outfield. He can’t be this bad.
And, at 2B. he'd have more of a buffer between him and most road fans. Everybody wins.

Seriously, folks, this is a rare case where the eye test and the analytics marry. He is not a legitimate CF, at all.
 

Cesar Crespo

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So, he was a 2nd baseman at the beginning of his career, right? Was he unplayably bad as an infielder or was there some other reason for the move? It certainly feels like he might be unplayably bad in the OF :(
Thought his athleticism was wasted at 2b.
 

Didot Fromager

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Do we have evidence they were throwing things?? KC fans are good. Why would
they randomly throw things against a shitty player as they’re in the midst of kicking his teams ass up and down the field?
Do we know that they were KC fans? I saw a lot of Red Sox gear in the stands.
 

mfried

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No evidence that Jarred is a good base stealer in MLB. That reduces his value to virtually nothing.
 

BaseballJones

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Ok, so let's assume that Duran really isn't their CF of the future. Fair enough. Who, then? The following guys are FA after this season (according to the contracts page on the Red Sox b-ref page):

JD ($19.4m)
Eovaldi ($17m)
Wacha ($7m)
Kiké ($8m)
Hill ($5m)
Strahm ($3m)
Plawecki ($2.5m)

That's $61.9m coming off the books. Of course, that's a bunch of players they'll need to replace as well. B-ref estimates that with arbitration, etc., the Sox are on the hook for $155.1 million for 2023. Obviously holes to fill, but they're in pretty decent shape financially, and have the ability to sign a big ticket item if they want. Of course, Xander could opt out, which would save another $20m, but would leave a gigantic hole in the lineup as well.

I know replacing Duran is hardly the most important decision the Sox will need to make this offseason. I guess his situation just kind of got me thinking about what options the Sox do have, and how they can retool.
 

mauf

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What does it say about the organization that they continue to play him every day? It’s as big of an indictment as I can think of.
They needed to clear a 40-man spot. Who should they have dropped besides JBJ?

If there’s someone else who also has no trade value and no prospect of helping the team in 2023, then yeah, they made a mistake, as another Duran meltdown was certainly a foreseeable possibility. If there wasn’t someone else on the 40-man as expendable as JBJ, however, then giving a job for two months to an AAA guy who doesn’t belong in The Show is the sort of thing that teams that are out of contention in August do. It’s not fun to watch, but I’m glad they didn’t trade a prospect for a veteran outfielder just so the last 60 games of this season would be a little more watchable.
 

mauf

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Ok, so let's assume that Duran really isn't their CF of the future. Fair enough. Who, then? The following guys are FA after this season (according to the contracts page on the Red Sox b-ref page):

JD ($19.4m)
Eovaldi ($17m)
Wacha ($7m)
Kiké ($8m)
Hill ($5m)
Strahm ($3m)
Plawecki ($2.5m)

That's $61.9m coming off the books. Of course, that's a bunch of players they'll need to replace as well. B-ref estimates that with arbitration, etc., the Sox are on the hook for $155.1 million for 2023. Obviously holes to fill, but they're in pretty decent shape financially, and have the ability to sign a big ticket item if they want. Of course, Xander could opt out, which would save another $20m, but would leave a gigantic hole in the lineup as well.

I know replacing Duran is hardly the most important decision the Sox will need to make this offseason. I guess his situation just kind of got me thinking about what options the Sox do have, and how they can retool.
Verdugo is the only outfielder on the roster who deserves to be an Opening Day starter somewhere next season. I’m hopeful that next year’s starting CF and RF are currently playing on other teams.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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They needed to clear a 40-man spot. Who should they have dropped besides JBJ?

If there’s someone else who also has no trade value and no prospect of helping the team in 2023, then yeah, they made a mistake, as another Duran meltdown was certainly a foreseeable possibility. If there wasn’t someone else on the 40-man as expendable as JBJ, however, then giving a job for two months to an AAA guy who doesn’t belong in The Show is the sort of thing that teams that are out of contention in August do. It’s not fun to watch, but I’m glad they didn’t trade a prospect for a veteran outfielder just so the last 60 games of this season would be a little more watchable.
I would consider any of these to be releasable from the 40 man roster:

Darwinson
Jaylin
Franchy
Yolmer.
 

8slim

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They needed to clear a 40-man spot. Who should they have dropped besides JBJ?

If there’s someone else who also has no trade value and no prospect of helping the team in 2023, then yeah, they made a mistake, as another Duran meltdown was certainly a foreseeable possibility. If there wasn’t someone else on the 40-man as expendable as JBJ, however, then giving a job for two months to an AAA guy who doesn’t belong in The Show is the sort of thing that teams that are out of contention in August do. It’s not fun to watch, but I’m glad they didn’t trade a prospect for a veteran outfielder just so the last 60 games of this season would be a little more watchable.
What’s perplexing is that Bloom said in the aftermath of the trade deadline that the team was trying to compete for a playoff spot. And all of their deals, save for the Vazquez trade, plausibly supported that. So it was weird to then release a guy who had at least some value to the team if they were pursuing a wild card spot.
 

8slim

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Sean McAdam eviscerates Duran, and the Sox handling of him, in the BSJ this morning. That’s not exactly McAdam’s style.
 

mauf

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I would consider any of these to be releasable from the 40 man roster:

Darwinson
Jaylin
Franchy
Yolmer.
I’d take any of those four of those over the corpse of JBJ.

In fact, it’s probably time for Davis to get a long look in CF. Maybe Duran is needed on the 26-man roster as depth until Hernandez or Refsnyder returns, but he isn’t promising enough to get playing time he hasn’t earned.
 

snowmanny

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Verdugo is the only outfielder on the roster who deserves to be an Opening Day starter somewhere next season. I’m hopeful that next year’s starting CF and RF are currently playing on other teams.
Are we assuming Hernandez is cooked?
 

Lose Remerswaal

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I’d take any of those four of those over the corpse of JBJ.

In fact, it’s probably time for Davis to get a long look in CF. Maybe Duran is needed on the 26-man roster as depth until Hernandez or Refsnyder returns, but he isn’t promising enough to get playing time he hasn’t earned.
I don’r disagree, but any of them could be cut and i doubt it would affect this team going forward. Some will have to go if guys start coming off the 60 day list.
 

benhogan

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Ok, so let's assume that Duran really isn't their CF of the future. Fair enough. Who, then? The following guys are FA after this season (according to the contracts page on the Red Sox b-ref page):

JD ($19.4m)
Eovaldi ($17m)
Wacha ($7m)
Kiké ($8m)
Hill ($5m)
Strahm ($3m)
Plawecki ($2.5m)

That's $61.9m coming off the books. Of course, that's a bunch of players they'll need to replace as well. B-ref estimates that with arbitration, etc., the Sox are on the hook for $155.1 million for 2023. Obviously holes to fill, but they're in pretty decent shape financially, and have the ability to sign a big ticket item if they want. Of course, Xander could opt out, which would save another $20m, but would leave a gigantic hole in the lineup as well.

I know replacing Duran is hardly the most important decision the Sox will need to make this offseason. I guess his situation just kind of got me thinking about what options the Sox do have, and how they can retool.
If you want to dream, they have a 21yr old, Ceddanne Rafaela, that has played well in High-A, AA this year...If he continues on this path (and the Sox continue on theirs) he could be a POI after All-Star break next season...This teams play and the AL East has me looking to the minors for eventual help

Versatile, standout defender. Has the potential to be a plus defender at second, short, third, and in the outfield, but best position is center field. In the outfield, has really good instincts. Takes really good routes and has plus range. Played primarily third base in 2018, but also saw time at shortstop. In 2019, split time evenly between second, third, and short. In 2021, became a true utility player, also playing the outfield, showing the ability to play a plus center field. Named farm system's 2021 Defensive Player of the Year.

https://www.soxprospects.com/players/rafaela-ceddanne.htm
 

Coachster

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FWIW, we do have Abraham Almonte in Worcester. When he's been healthy, he's a serviceable MLB center fielder.

But we all know how this is going to play out. Duran will be in the lineup tomorrow, and his crappy fielding and worse attitude will be forgotten.
 

mauf

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Are we assuming Hernandez is cooked?
I’m assuming we’d like to send Duran to the minors but have a depth problem until Hernandez and Refsnyder return. I’m saying I’d still staple Duran to the bench. He’s not the kind of prospect where you need to shuffle things around to make sure he gets regular reps. And since there seems to be the opportunity, I do think it’s worth giving Davis 100 PAs to see what’s there.
 

Sin Duda

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Were we fooled by Mookie's easy transition from 2B to the OF? Personally, I'm surprised how difficult it has been for Duran. I've only played baseball up to the Legion ball level, so I can't imagine how difficult it would be to change positions at the professional and MLB levels. He seems to be someone who works; he is much stronger than he was when drafted. I would have thought he would have really, really worked at playing OF last winter and during this season. I don't like the idea of giving up on him, but I don't think he can be the #1 CF option for 2023. Kike, Keirmaier, and Pillar are the only CFers available in free agency. Unless we steal Judge from NY! :)
 

moondog80

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Were we fooled by Mookie's easy transition from 2B to the OF? Personally, I'm surprised how difficult it has been for Duran. I've only played baseball up to the Legion ball level, so I can't imagine how difficult it would be to change positions at the professional and MLB levels. He seems to be someone who works; he is much stronger than he was when drafted. I would have thought he would have really, really worked at playing OF last winter and during this season. I don't like the idea of giving up on him, but I don't think he can be the #1 CF option for 2023. Kike, Keirmaier, and Pillar are the only CFers available in free agency. Unless we steal Judge from NY! :)
You have the wrong NY CF. Brandon Nimmo.
 

Coachster

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This could be from the land of hot takes, but there are two factors in what makes Duran a crappy outfielder. First, he's lazy, and second, he's a coward.

The ball that went over his head Saturday night, he JOGGED back on it till he realized how well it was hit, but by then it was too late. We were taught to read, go AFASY (as fast as you can) to where you think it'll be, and then get under control. Duran just jogs.

Yesterday, on the two alleged triples (I feel bad for Schreiber getting charged with earned runs there) you could see he was afraid of the wall. He doesn't have enough kinesthetic awareness to sense when he's getting close, and seems afraid to go hard into a wall. The out is not the most important thing to him, his safety is. He's obviously done the research on that.

FWIW, I played centerfield through community college. We were taught to put an arm out to sense the wall if there was time, but otherwise, track the ball. I had some fun accidents with walls and fences, but my favorite was running full speed into a 3' high chain link fence, flipping over it, and losing the ball when I landed. Probably not a home run, but I carried it over the fence with me.

Bottom line, he sucks defensively and he's not going to get much better.
 

Cesar Crespo

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If you want to dream, they have a 21yr old, Ceddanne Rafaela, that has played well in High-A, AA this year...If he continues on this path (and the Sox continue on theirs) he could be a POI after All-Star break next season...This teams play and the AL East has me looking to the minors for eventual help

Versatile, standout defender. Has the potential to be a plus defender at second, short, third, and in the outfield, but best position is center field. In the outfield, has really good instincts. Takes really good routes and has plus range. Played primarily third base in 2018, but also saw time at shortstop. In 2019, split time evenly between second, third, and short. In 2021, became a true utility player, also playing the outfield, showing the ability to play a plus center field. Named farm system's 2021 Defensive Player of the Year.

https://www.soxprospects.com/players/rafaela-ceddanne.htm
Which makes Jarren Duran the perfect stop gap until Rafaela is ready sometime in 2023.
 

8slim

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Were we fooled by Mookie's easy transition from 2B to the OF? Personally, I'm surprised how difficult it has been for Duran. I've only played baseball up to the Legion ball level, so I can't imagine how difficult it would be to change positions at the professional and MLB levels. He seems to be someone who works; he is much stronger than he was when drafted. I would have thought he would have really, really worked at playing OF last winter and during this season. I don't like the idea of giving up on him, but I don't think he can be the #1 CF option for 2023. Kike, Keirmaier, and Pillar are the only CFers available in free agency. Unless we steal Judge from NY! :)
This is his 5th season of playing OF. I'm sure the club thinks he can improve, given his natural athleticism, but at a certain point there needs to be a recognition that it just may not be possible for him to be even a slightly below-average MLB OFer.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I remember the scouting report before he arrived saying he was a poor defender who takes bad routes and has trouble tracking the ball.

I said to myself, he is a good athlete and super fast, he will outrun his bad reads.

I could not have been more wrong. He is Hanley level bad in the outfield.

Can you teach someone to get better reads or if your instincts are bad, they are always going to be bad.
We've even seen this before with Coco too—some of his best catches involved breaking entirely the wrong way off the bat only for him to cover an insane amount of ground and make the catch. While he would make bad initial reads, he recovered quickly and was at least comfortable in the position. Duran otoh never seems to know where he or the ball are, even while he is ostensibly camped under it.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I'd contend that it makes Kike Hernandez the CFer as soon as he can walk without a limp.
Enrique is not signed for 2023 and Rafaela won't be ready at the start of 2023. If they want someone to fill the gap until Rafaela is better, Duran makes a lot of sense.
 

Coachster

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I'd contend that it makes Kike Hernandez the CFer as soon as he can walk without a limp.
And I'd contend that it makes Jaylen Davis or Abraham Almonte the centerfielder till Rafaela is ready. If Duran could hit or actually steal bases, there would be something we could hold onto, but what actual major league skill does he have?
 

Cesar Crespo

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And I'd contend that it makes Jaylen Davis or Abraham Almonte the centerfielder till Rafaela is ready. If Duran could hit or actually steal bases, there would be something we could hold onto, but what actual major league skill does he have?
What skills do Davis and Almonte have?
 

8slim

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Enrique is not signed for 2023 and Rafaela won't be ready at the start of 2023. If they want someone to fill the gap until Rafaela is better, Duran makes a lot of sense.
I'm struggling to see how Duran makes sense to start tomorrow, let alone deep into 2023 (so we can pin our unreasonable hopes on the next prospect).

I mean, we could also, you know, get an actual major league center fielder.
 

JCizzle

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Enrique is not signed for 2023 and Rafaela won't be ready at the start of 2023. If they want someone to fill the gap until Rafaela is better, Duran makes a lot of sense.
This strikes me as the Dalbec gamble to buy time for Casas, but with Duran you don't even have a hot streak to pin your hopes on for the first couple months. I think it would be irresponsible for the team to expect Duran to provide anything offensively or defensively, especially if the Red Sox plan to contend next year.
 

Sandwich Pick

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Again, plastic screw-on bottle caps ... meaning you'd need a heck of an arm, in the wind, to get them anywhere near Duran from the bleachers
Don't Concession Stands take bottle caps off drinks when they give them to fans? For this exact reason?*

*Of course, this is not relevant if they brought their own drinks. I'm admittedly not familiar with the Kauffman Stadium food & beverage policy.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Enrique is not signed for 2023 and Rafaela won't be ready at the start of 2023. If they want someone to fill the gap until Rafaela is better, Duran makes a lot of sense.
Duran as he currently looks makes no sense on a major league roster of any kind. I don't care what kind of attributes he might have, they're not coming together into an even passable outfielder. If the plan is wait it out until Rafaela is ready, I'd rather see them bring back JBJ than hand the job to Duran.

Of course, the idea of keeping the seat warm for Rafaela is insanity. Re-sign Kike or go out and find someone else to play CF in 2023.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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Again, plastic screw-on bottle caps ... meaning you'd need a heck of an arm, in the wind, to get them anywhere near Duran from the bleachers
I mean, I think he's probably bullshitting but he got plenty close enough to be a target. He starts jawing in that direction right after flubbing the play.

54025
 

soxin6

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Enrique is not signed for 2023 and Rafaela won't be ready at the start of 2023. If they want someone to fill the gap until Rafaela is better, Duran makes a lot of sense.
True, but Kike wasn’t playing great before he got hurt so they could probably resign him to a reasonable contract if they want him back.
 

Ale Xander

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Don't Concession Stands take bottle caps off drinks when they give them to fans? For this exact reason?*

*Of course, this is not relevant if they brought their own drinks. I'm admittedly not familiar with the Kauffman Stadium food & beverage policy.
You can bring unopened bottles of water
 

Cesar Crespo

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Duran as he currently looks makes no sense on a major league roster of any kind. I don't care what kind of attributes he might have, they're not coming together into an even passable outfielder. If the plan is wait it out until Rafaela is ready, I'd rather see them bring back JBJ than hand the job to Duran.

Of course, the idea of keeping the seat warm for Rafaela is insanity. Re-sign Kike or go out and find someone else to play CF in 2023.
And Jaylin and Almonte do?

And JBJ has a fork in him. People are letting their intense dislike cloud their judgement. If they can bring Enrique back for cheap, sure.

I don't think they are signing their long term CF in FA this off season though. It's gonna be a retread like JBJ or they'll stick with Duran.
 

Cesar Crespo

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So now we're stop-gapping for a guy who's in AA and started playing OF last year?

What is going on here?
Who cares when someone starts playing a position when the are already great at it? He was better in CF after 1 day than Duran is now.

The question with Rafaela isn't his defense. It's whether his bat will be ready.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Tell me how many games Mookie Betts played in the OF before being promoted to the Red Sox.

But yeah, let that be the argument. Or Xander and 3b for that matter.
 

8slim

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Who cares when someone starts playing a position when the are already great at it? He was better in CF after 1 day than Duran is now.

The question with Rafaela isn't his defense. It's whether his bat will be ready.
I've never seen him play OF. You have? My point is that he's AA outfielder. Considering anyone a stop-gap for him seems crazy to me. Like others said, that's how we ended up with the black hole that was Dalbec for 4 months, and by all accounts Cassas was far more ready to step in than Rafaela may be.
 

8slim

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Yeah, I have quite a bit. His glove is MLB quality. At pretty much every position he has ever played.
Great to hear. I hope he races through the minors and is contributing to the Sox ASAP. I'll repeat though that I'd prefer this team find an MLB-caliber CFer as well.
 

AlNipper49

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I've seen him a bunch. I like him a lot but counting for him in 2023 would be the definition of insanity (unless something really changes). I really like Duran too.... but in AAA. He's painfully, clearly not ready. Get a 8-10m stopgap in CF, give Duran one more year to prove himself in AAA and let Binelas move up. They'd most likely be in AAA together but I think that it's safe to say that Duran should be the one moving over.
 

BigSoxFan

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Great to hear. I hope he races through the minors and is contributing to the Sox ASAP. I'll repeat though that I'd prefer this team find an MLB-caliber CFer as well.
If Kike would take a one year deal for 2023, that seems like a good solution for all. Can’t imagine the multi-year deals will be there for him given his lost 2022 season.

The Sox simply can’t run Duran back next year unless we see some rather remarkable changes next 2 months (not holding my breath).
 

moondog80

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There are lots of questions about Rafaella's super low walk rate. I hope he works out but they shouldn't avoid making moves this winter out of fear of blocking him.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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If Kike would take a one year deal for 2023, that seems like a good solution for all. Can’t imagine the multi-year deals will be there for him given his lost 2022 season.

The Sox simply can’t run Duran back next year unless we see some rather remarkable changes next 2 months (not holding my breath).
Kike on a one year contract is a good solution….if he is healthy (and ideally, productive). If nor, we are just stuck with the same situation we have now .
 

A Bad Man

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The FA CF situation is rather grim. From MLB Trade Rumors:

Shogo Akiyama (35)
Jackie Bradley Jr. (33)
Lorenzo Cain (37)
Delino DeShields (30)
Billy Hamilton (32)
Kiké Hernandez (31)
Odubel Herrera (31)
Travis Jankowski (32)
Kevin Kiermaier (33) – $13MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout
Jake Marisnick (32)
Tyler Naquin (32)
Brandon Nimmo (30)
Kevin Pillar (34)

Nimmo is great but seemingly always hurt. And the price will be high. Besides that, it's Kiké or bust. Or Judge?