This is basically what I’m saying. I’m not writing him off… I just don’t see how playing in AAA will help him any longer. He’s REALLY good in AAA already! He needs more reps, better coaching and help from a guy like Kiké
Jarren Duran: Today We Like Him
- Thread starter E5 Yaz
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Look, for what it's worth, I like Duran and I'll always root for him. I think Duran will improve by spending more time in AAA, and I want to keep him on the system and on the 40 man roster.
So you think that it's unlikely Duran improves...........But.........maybe he will.
OK
You're missing the point.
If the club thinks he should be doing X, they should have been helping him to do X.
You're missing the point. How do you know they weren't? Unless you are talking about the power thing but they don't have complete control over a players life.
They think he should be doing X, they help him do X. He still can't do X. If it doesn't take, it doesn't take.
First, because Cora recently said they worked on Duran's first step in the ML OF and told him to approach it like he was stealing bases. And it got better. Almost overnight. Which is how many years after he made the transition to a MiL OF? So yes, it's an indictment of the minor league coaching. How can you think it wouldn't be.
Second, the reporting was widely that he took it upon himself to successfully retool his swing for power. (And then, as you say, became prospect humped. Which is neither here nor there.) But again, I can't think how you think that's not an indictment of MiL hitting instruction. Or coaching. If they didn't care about him developing power, why did he get the impression they drastically cared. (As you seem to.)
Third, now Cora says that they don't want him to focus on power, but on OBP at the expense of power, bunting, stealing, and playing defense. But if that were so, again, why didn't they make that a core part of his game in the minors (instead of hitting for power with the retooled swing), and why didn't they use him that way when he came up to the majors?
So yes, if you take the parties at their word, I think it's fairly clear that the club wasn't intelligently maximizing the resource they had.
As to the bolded, I see it more as an adjustment than a failure. Duran showed power in AA and AAA; it's what put him on the radar for the big club. He even had a bit of success going with the power approach at some points with the Sox. But as PAs went by, his power approach -- at this point of his career -- was proving to be unsuccessful. He was selling out his swing for power constantly, rather than going for a blend of hitting the other way when appropriate and looking to launch when available. Opposing teams got a book on him and got him to strike himself out or ground out by pitching him away. As strong as he is -- he looks strong, anyway -- he should be peppering the Wall with line drives on pitches away and looking to pull when pitchers get tired of giving up doubles and try coming inside on him. That's what he should be working on in Worcester.
Woe, I just figured out that foray = AAAA (see thread title).
Probably a high-risk approach, but maybe have Donnie Sadler counsel Duran on "not doing what I did in MLB."
Probably a high-risk approach, but maybe have Donnie Sadler counsel Duran on "not doing what I did in MLB."
I liked the thread title better when it was AAAA instead of foray (only for a brief moment yesterday). Same clever word play, just leaning more into the baseball side.
But what if they believe the level of competition is (mostly? partially?) irrelevant to the skills they are working on? I would think this would be especially true of defensive skills and habits.
I don't find it hard to imagine a situation where the major league staff have identified some very specific flaws in the kids game they want him to work on, and that a good number of those can be worked on just as effectively in Worcester as they can in Boston. Now the team needs the roster spot and gives him a laundry list of instructions to work on. Instead of we'll see you next week they tell him they are going to monitor his progress and he is back up once they see those improvements. Could be next week, or next year sometime depending on his work.
He's also been under a bit of a microscope (for good reasons) since coming up, maybe its psychological better for him to work on them there as well.
Now, I'm not saying this is the likely scenario but its is a piece of the probability pie that is completely disregarded by the above statement.
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Talent/performance aside, someone needs to talk to this kid. Probably multiple someones.
Good reminder that these folks aren't robots.
Failing sucks, I can only imagine that this season has been really difficult on him. All these guys are under so much pressure to succeed. Beyond the whole matter of pride, young players are also playing for their financial future.
Duran signed in 2018 fo 180,000. Given how poorly minor leaguers are paid, he probably didn't make substantially more until he broke into the league last season. Each week he's in the majors, he's receiving what's probably life-changing money at the moment.
Couple the financial pressure, pride in being a ballplayer, etc. I have to imagine being a player breaking into the league isn't as fun as most would think.
Failing sucks, I can only imagine that this season has been really difficult on him. All these guys are under so much pressure to succeed. Beyond the whole matter of pride, young players are also playing for their financial future.
Duran signed in 2018 fo 180,000. Given how poorly minor leaguers are paid, he probably didn't make substantially more until he broke into the league last season. Each week he's in the majors, he's receiving what's probably life-changing money at the moment.
Couple the financial pressure, pride in being a ballplayer, etc. I have to imagine being a player breaking into the league isn't as fun as most would think.
Today's post probably helps to shed a bit of light on the decision. Perhaps the team felt his working on things while in Boston just added to the pressure Duran was feeling and decided it was best that he go back down for the rest of the season and work on his game. There's no benefit to the additional microscope of nightly telecasts if his head is swimming in angst.
This is a great point, and I'd also add that for most ballplayers who have the talent to get to the major leagues in the first place, they haven't experienced a ton of personal failure along the way. We're talking about guys who were the stars of their team in little league, in high school, in college, and presumably in the minors as they work their way up. Experiencing your first prolonged period of struggling on the field while in the white-hot spotlight of a Major League team (let alone one as intense as Boston can be) can be a shock to the system. I hope he figures out that part of it, even if he never reaches the heights of what were unrealistic expectations of his baseball future.
It would be pretty great if he had a 10 year major league career as a .260 hitter with a little pop, good speed, and good defense. I think we've seen he might be capable of most of that, with (perhaps surprisingly) his defense being the most lacking. If he achieves this, that'll be a lot of $$ in his wallet, and he'd be useful to a major league club (or clubs). Not a bad MLB career.
Sometimes players do things on their own. Again, the Red Sox can't follow the guy around 24/7 to make sure he doesn't decide to change his swing on his own. Remember when DD hired a PI to follow around Mo Vaughn? That ended well. And if Duran didn't change his swing, we probably aren't talking about him right now. He'd be out of baseball.
Why do you think Jarren Duran is some super teachable person who listens to others? I mean, he does... eventually. Why did he take it on himself to gain more power? Because he saw himself becoming an organizational player, an afterthought. If you want to blame the organization for not having enough resources to dedicate to every single player in the minors then ok.
Alex Cora and the Red Sox can tell Jarren Duran all kinds of things. Doesn't mean he's going to listen to it or put it to use. He beats to his own drum. Listen to his quotes. He's shut off.
edit: Mookie Betts also changed his swing on his own. But that doesn't fit the narrative.
I don't understand your point. Beyond that you think the Sox have handled this perfectly, and there's been no miscommunication between player and org.
Possibly also that players should be randomly trying to reinvent their swing on their own to gain power, no matter if that rises or tanks their value; because Betts did that, and why should the club be involved in that process really.
Good for you.
He'll probably have a good year or two when he's around 30. Can't wait forever though.
With no shift next year and Duran being lefty, I thought maybe that would help some. But the numbers this year don't bear that out.
vs the shift, he's hitting .307.
With no shift, he's hitting .304.
He has maybe 3 paths to the majors. One is to have an ISO north of .200. Another is to reduce his K% to 22-23%. The 3rd is to drastically improve in CF. Or small improvements in all 3.
Reduce his K% from 29% to 22%, he's hitting .250/.311/.395 instead of .220/.283/.365. It's 6 more hits in 219 PA. It's also league average production.
I get why he sold out for power because a .065 ISO in AA does not translate to Major League success unless you are Wade Boggs (elite eye) or Luis Castillo (great eye, plus speed). I doubt Duran makes the MLB if he hadn't, but I think it's pretty obvious it's not going to keep him there. Watching him, it's obvious he should be playing for contact... but that's exactly what he did until 2021. He switched because that stopped working for him at AA. It would be great if he could find a happy medium.
I've never been high on him but he is pretty infuriating. He's so close to being average/good but comes up just a tiny bit short everywhere.
He also has some pretty drastic splits at the MLB level.
Vs R: .226/.282/.387, 262 PA, 15bb/81k, 25xbh/5HR.
vs L: .188/.217/.234, 69 PA. 3bb/22k. 2xbh.
He didn't really have splits in the minors. It's only 69 PA but that's pretty brutal.
I have no clue if they handled it perfectly. You are the one making the assumptions they handled it wrong because Duran acted on his own. You are acting like there has been no communication at all. You are the one doing this, not me. Hell, there are reports after his 2021 call up that they wanted him to work on making better contact. This isn't a new thing to 2022. They have told Duran to work on things during the off season. Whether he did or not, it's on him.
And players are always changing their swings on their own. And you know this. But let's blame the Red Sox for players changing their swings because they have 100% control over what a player does on their free time. Betts changed his swing after 2012 and 2017. He's probably tweaked it 1000 times.
Maybe the Red Sox did screw up developing Jarren Duran. I don't know. I do know that Duran was a complete noodle bat going nowhere and he took it upon himself to change his trajectory. Should the Sox have noticed some untapped power potential? Maybe, but it's not like the power has translated.
I don't even know what your argument is. What do you think the Sox were telling Jarren Duran? To sell out for power, strike out all the time and play crappy defense? When do you start to blame the player? Because most of the blame falls on Duran. If you even call it blame. Maybe he's not not good enough to be an MLB player. Many people aren't.
And again, tell me what the Red Sox are supposed to do when a player acts on his own? And how can the club be involved in that process when the player doesn't involve them? But sure, that's somehow on the Red Sox.
He kind of seems like the type of guy who would thrive in low-pressure situations. Maybe a team like KC or Oakland would give him a better fresh start.
The team employs people that players can talk with, in order to help process stuff like this. Even in Worcester. I hope that he's doing just that.
Surprised I had to go back to April to bump this thread.
Duran is rapidly becoming my favorite player to watch on the Sox. While players like Devers and Verdugo are obviously very good, Duran feels like the only player on the Red Sox who comes across like a real elite athlete--like I could see him playing wide receiver for the Patriots. I love his aggression on the base paths and he plays with a freedom that I don't we have seen in an every day player since Mookie was traded. He's been a total joy this season.
Duran is rapidly becoming my favorite player to watch on the Sox. While players like Devers and Verdugo are obviously very good, Duran feels like the only player on the Red Sox who comes across like a real elite athlete--like I could see him playing wide receiver for the Patriots. I love his aggression on the base paths and he plays with a freedom that I don't we have seen in an every day player since Mookie was traded. He's been a total joy this season.
Well, we have an entire other thread devoted to him
https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/extreme-makeover-the-jarren-duran-edition.39319/