Irish Backstop

Sprowl

mikey lowell of the sandbox
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What is the backstop if Danny Ainge's Big Plan falls through? Assume that Kyrie Irving goes elsewhere, the Pelicans get a better offer for Anthony Davis, Al Horford finds another max elsewhere, and the Celtics lose all the Tankathon coin flips. The the Celtics are left with their young uns and a shiteload of first round draft picks. For the purpose of argument, assume Ainge has picks 10, 14, 22 and 23 burning a hole in his pocket. What is the backstop for the younger-than-ever Celtics?

I'm thinking along the lines of:

build around Tatum, Brown and Smart,
give Hayward another year to recover his hops,
give Williams another year to perfect his timing,
lose Rozier and sign a veteran point guard, and
draft a few big men and hope they grow up fast.


FTR, this is counterfactual. I think Irving will re-sign, because the Celtics can offer the fifth year; Davis will be a Celtic for next year, because the Celtics have the most chips to offer; and Al Horford will stick around because he likes the Big Plan too. The downside, however, is a non-trivial possibility.
 

nighthob

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I don’t expect Irving to stick around, and so am hoping that they don’t buy stock in Davis. So your scenario is pretty realistic, albeit that I expect Horford to return (especially if Irving leaves I expect them to keep Al as the vet clubhouse leader).

Bradley Beal is on the market and I would expect Ainge to chase after him next. They would have Brown and two late lottery picks with which to tempt the Wiz. They would need to find a way to make the numbers work, which is the big problem.

Aside from that I would expect Ainge to take some homerun swings in the draft, like Kevin Porter Jr. or Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
 

benhogan

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I'm thinking along the lines of:
build around Tatum, Brown and Smart,
give Hayward another year to recover his hops,
give Williams another year to perfect his timing,
lose Rozier and sign a veteran point guard, and
draft a few big men and hope they grow up fast.



FTR, this is counterfactual. I think Irving will re-sign, because the Celtics can offer the fifth year; Davis will be a Celtic for next year, because the Celtics have the most chips to offer; and Al Horford will stick around because he likes the Big Plan too. The downside, however, is a non-trivial possibility.
Agree with bolded. Maybe add a veteran BIG since they are out of favor/cheap (MLE). Fill out the roster with the draft picks and see if Brad can work his magic with a healed Gordon, a stronger Tatum, Brown and Smart. Pass on Beal, like Brown, would rather just go with the young core. They'd have cap space to get creative (not Laker creative) to sign veteran bench/role players to 1yr deals (add Pat Beverly, just so he can guard NY Knicks Kyrie for 94 feet)

If our "worse case scenario" is Trader Danny left with payroll flexibility, draft picks and a young core. That's not bad.

Get back to defense, ball movement, Brad in charge and move on from the egos.
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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FTR, this is counterfactual. I think Irving will re-sign, because the Celtics can offer the fifth year; Davis will be a Celtic for next year, because the Celtics have the most chips to offer; and Al Horford will stick around because he likes the Big Plan too. The downside, however, is a non-trivial possibility.
So much depends on whether or not there will be a hard Kyrexit. I personally don't think it's going to happen because KI wants to be the best player on a championship team but maybe he sees this team not at that level.

As a fallback position, the common union you describe is still pretty good.
 

lovegtm

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I know this isn't a super-popular opinion here, but I probably try to bring Rozier back in the event of a Kyrexit, as long as his value has tanked to a sufficient point. I don't mind having Terry Rozier at like 4/40, with no more contract pressure on his end. That would have been unthinkably low for him last summer, but it's in the ballpark now, especially given the mechanics of RFA.
 

mikeot

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So much depends on whether or not there will be a hard Kyrexit. I personally don't think it's going to happen because KI wants to be the best player on a championship team but maybe he sees this team not at that level.

As a fallback position, the common union you describe is still pretty good.
Can Kanye - er, Kyrie - allow this to override his flair for the dramatic and possibly team up with KD on the perrennial Dolan shitshow? The part of me that craves schadenfreude almost hopes for this; the part of me that revels in KI's mastery hopes he sticks around.
 

joe dokes

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Can Kanye - er, Kyrie - allow this to override his flair for the dramatic and possibly team up with KD on the perrennial Dolan shitshow? The part of me that craves schadenfreude almost hopes for this; the part of me that revels in KI's mastery hopes he sticks around.
wade boggs chicken dinner said:
So much depends on whether or not there will be a hard Kyrexit. I personally don't think it's going to happen because KI wants to be the best player on a championship team but maybe he sees this team not at that level.
As long as Dolan is still running the Knicks, no player can be believed who says he is going there because he is "trying to win a championship."
 

HomeRunBaker

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This could be a poll question but what is the goal here?

a) Championship team
b) Fun and “watchable” team

It’s rare to have both since the latter doesn’t typically lead to the former.
 

bosox79

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Winning is fun so I think it's impossible to have A without B. It's possible to have B without A though.
 

Jeff Van GULLY

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Celtics could have up to $35.7 in cap space in 19/20. Kemba Walker might be likely.

I think Rozier re-signs here on a team friend deal if Kyrie is gone and they don't chase Kemba. There is a marked difference in his play as a role player and as a starter.

Trade market will be robust with all the #1's and the cap space available. If Horford stays, they are at the cap and could use Gordon in a trade as salary match.

I do expect one of Smart/Rozier to not be on the roster next season, regardless of Kyrie's decision.
 

Wilco's Last Fan

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Celtics could have up to $35.7 in cap space in 19/20. Kemba Walker might be likely.

I think Rozier re-signs here on a team friend deal if Kyrie is gone and they don't chase Kemba. There is a marked difference in his play as a role player and as a starter.

Trade market will be robust with all the #1's and the cap space available. If Horford stays, they are at the cap and could use Gordon in a trade as salary match.

I do expect one of Smart/Rozier to not be on the roster next season, regardless of Kyrie's decision.
Is it worth it to commit big $$ to a 29-YO Kemba Walker after losing Horford + Kyrie? I suppose you could then try to trade Jaylen+ for Beal (and that would probably require including Smart + one of our eventual draftees to help match salaries), but does a Kemba/Beal/Tatum/Hayward core have a real shot at a title? (Genuinely asking, though my inclination is probably not).
 

nighthob

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Is it worth it to commit big $$ to a 29-YO Kemba Walker after losing Horford + Kyrie? I suppose you could then try to trade Jaylen+ for Beal (and that would probably require including Smart + one of our eventual draftees to help match salaries), but does a Kemba/Beal/Tatum/Hayward core have a real shot at a title? (Genuinely asking, though my inclination is probably not).
If they lost both Horford and Irving there’d be no sense in maxing out Kemba. They would be a thousand percent better off using the available cap space to reduce the acquisition cost of Beal and then trying to find a defensive oriented 4/5 to replace Horford with.
 

Wilco's Last Fan

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If they lost both Horford and Irving there’d be no sense in maxing out Kemba. They would be a thousand percent better off using the available cap space to reduce the acquisition cost of Beal and then trying to find a defensive oriented 4/5 to replace Horford with.
That's a good point, if they're $35m under the cap they wouldn't need to match salaries on BB. Beal's also only turning 26 this year so even if trading for him doesn't instantly make the C's a contender, he aligns with their next window of contention.

Your young core to start next season would include:

Smart (25)
Tatum (21)
Beal (26)
Hayward (29)
R. Williams (22)

Plus:
Baynes
Whatever of MEM/SAC/LAC/BOS we didn't send to WSH
FA from MLE / remaining cap space
This would also have the benefit of resetting the luxury tax counter.
 
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benhogan

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Celtics could have up to $35.7 in cap space in 19/20. Kemba Walker might be likely.

I think Rozier re-signs here on a team friend deal if Kyrie is gone and they don't chase Kemba. There is a marked difference in his play as a role player and as a starter.

Trade market will be robust with all the #1's and the cap space available. If Horford stays, they are at the cap and could use Gordon in a trade as salary match.

I do expect one of Smart/Rozier to not be on the roster next season, regardless of Kyrie's decision.
Rozier would have to sign up for much less than Smart for it to be a "team friendly deal". Marcus Smart has always been better than Terry Rozier, w/ Smart hitting over 36% of 3PA it's pretty stark.

Terry Rozier vs Marcus Smart
(NBA.com advanced offensive rating / defensive rating / net rating)

2018-19: Smart (109.3/105.9/3.3) > Rozier (104.1/104.7/-.6)
playoffs 2017-18: Smart (104.4/100.9/3.5) > Rozier (106.8/104.9/1.9)
2017-18: Smart (105/99/6) > Rozier (103.3/100.8/2.5)
2016-17: Smart (107.2/104.6/2.6) > Rozier (100.6/102/-1.4)
2015-16: Smart (102/99.9/2.2) > Rozier (91.9/99.4/-7.5)

It seems Terry does play better as a starter, even though he wasn't all that great in the playoffs last year. BUT I'm definitely not starting him over a backcourt of Smart/Brown. Terry was also a negative for 3 of the 4 seasons he played here. I'd rather bring in a vet PG that is happy to come off the bench and draft a PG to develop (Coby White/Garland could be late lottery). Late 1st and 2nds (Ty Jerome, Hagans, Carsen Edwards, Tre Jones, Bowmen, Howard, Clemons, etc)

https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION&dir=-1&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular Season
 
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BaseballJones

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There’s no question that you could do a hell of a lot worse than Hayward/Brown/Tatum/Smart + draft picks as a launching point to a new era. And that’s basically the worst case scenario.
 

BigSoxFan

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There’s no question that you could do a hell of a lot worse than Hayward/Brown/Tatum/Smart + draft picks as a launching point to a new era. And that’s basically the worst case scenario.
Yup. Although, I would still put money on AD happening.
 

nighthob

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Yup. Although, I would still put money on AD happening.
I hope not, because in this scenario it would mean an extended period scrambling for the eight spot in the east and praying for a draft miracle after Davis leaves for a starring role in the new Space Jam franchise.
 

nighthob

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That's a good point, if they're $35m under the cap they wouldn't need to match salaries on BB. Beal's also only turning 26 this year so even if trading for him doesn't instantly make the C's a contender, he aligns with their next window of contention.

Your young core to start next season would include:

Smart (25)
Tatum (21)
Beal (26)
Hayward (29)
R. Williams (22)

Plus:
Baynes
Whatever of MEM/SAC/LAC/BOS we didn't send to WSH
FA from MLE / remaining cap space
This would also have the benefit of resetting the luxury tax counter.
In that scenario I might try out Indiana on a Hayward for Turner swap in order to shore up the C spot and then try and find a 3&D guy for the 4 spot.
 

BigSoxFan

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I hope not, because in this scenario it would mean an extended period scrambling for the eight spot in the east and praying for a draft miracle after Davis leaves for a starring role in the new Space Jam franchise.
These are valid concerns but I just have the hunch that Ainge rolls the dice. I think if he can pair Kyrie and AD, he’s going to do it.
 

nighthob

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Yes, but that’s not the scenario that DC was discussing, it was “What happens if Kyrie bolts?” (which I increasingly see as a forgone conclusion).
 

sezwho

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The ball is in ADs court. If he’s wiling to sign up for the Celtics, we’ve got the parts and will make whatever deal they accept. Also, it’s in Kyries court if he wants to resign. Strangely, I’m not sure what Danny can do about either one, which is really Plan A.

I like the Beal ideas though and I can hope Danny ends up pushing some picks forward and not just grabbing the highest ranked draft&stash if he is still sitting on them all come draft night...all due respect to Yabu.
 

TripleOT

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In a post Kyrie world, a lot would depend on whether the Jays can thrive in featured roles with higher usage. I think they can. If AL stays, the transition would go a lot smoother, and if Hayward gets back 100%, they'd be a 50+ win team and a tough out in the playoffs, especially if they can bring in a vet PG.

Hopefully, Danny would hit a home run with one of the draft picks, with at least one rookie as a solid rotation guy with star upside.
 

Jimbodandy

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In a post Kyrie world, a lot would depend on whether the Jays can thrive in featured roles with higher usage. I think they can. If AL stays, the transition would go a lot smoother, and if Hayward gets back 100%, they'd be a 50+ win team and a tough out in the playoffs, especially if they can bring in a vet PG.

Hopefully, Danny would hit a home run with one of the draft picks, with at least one rookie as a solid rotation guy with star upside.
Plan B success depends on striking Mitchell/Giannis/etc. gold with a deeper pick, which frankly isn't all that farfetched when you have 3-4 of them.
 

Big John

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I think it depends primarily on Tatum and Brown picking up developmentally where they left off in June, 2018, plus Hayward either becoming the player he was in Utah or dumping him to bring in one or more guys who are effective. It seems obvious to me that except for Smart, the youngsters have regressed this year and we have a team in which the whole is less than the sum of its parts.

They don't need a Mitchell or a Giannis if everything else plays out well, but they do need a Pascal Siakam type. Sekou Dombouya, anyone?
 

Sprowl

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Kyrexit is looking more likely than not after the Celtics' second-round humiliation at the hands of the Bucks. I can't imagine Ainge risking all his marbles to add Anthony Davis to the Celtics as a one-year rental if Kyrie moves on. The Irish backstop probably keeps all the baes at home, signs Rozier to a team-friendly Smart-lite contract, and drafts high-ceiling talent with 2 first-round picks, while trading one or more first-round picks back a year. Pray for Memphis to keep its pick, because the Celtics don't have enough space to stash every one of the picks.

Ainge will wait until the wounds stop bleeding, and make another effort to to sign Kyrie, keep Horford and trade for Davis, but the chances of the Big Plan being realized just took a big hit.
 

Sprowl

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AD to Lakers, done deal.
Al Horford to a multi-year max contract somewhere else, 95% likelihood.
No-deal Kyrexit to Brooklyn, pending breakup meeting with Ainge, 99% likelihood.

The Irish backstop now looks like a five-year plan, peaking when their high-ceiling young talent hit an average age of 26. That means building around Tatum (21 years old), Brown (22), Williams (21), and whomever they draft in 2019 at 14, 20, 22, and in 2020 with the Memphis pick and their own. Then Ainge can switch from kicking the Celtics' acquired draft picks down the road, to trading away the Celtics' future draft picks for useful players.

Smart (25) is no longer in the Celtics' sweet spot, and will probably be traded in a year or two unless the Baes take great leaps forward. Smart is a gritty defender and complementary player for a championship contender (which the Celtics aren't) and has limited scoring firepower (which the Celtics now need).

Baynes (32) and Hayward (29) are not part of the five-year plan but too useful or overpriced (hence undervalued) to trade. Baynes will last a year or two before he breaks down or is dealt; Hayward's contract will be a counterweight in some disgruntled star acquisition in 2020. The GM's trading formula used to be: my mistake for your problem. With Hayward, it will be more like: my gimp for your jerk.

Rozier (24) will probably come back to the team for 4/48m. Rozier was a pill last year, but knowing what we now suppose about Kyrie Irving (ie, that he's a PITA), I'm thinking he'll get a restart, but then his contract becomes chump change for salary matching in a trade down the road. Wanamaker (29) looks like a cromulent 3rd string point guard, but he's not part of the long-term vision either. The Celtics will need a short-term, pass-first veteran point guard for the transition. Either Conley or Paul would help Tatum or Brown grow, but given the Conley and Paul contracts, a lower-budget acquisition like Rubio or Beverley is probably more in line with the long-term plan.

Semi (24) will see his patience rewarded. He's a useful cog in Stevens' defensive schemes and could stick around for a long time. Morris (29) will find greener pastures elsewhere. Theis (27) will probably come back to a team that knows how to use him, but he's not part of the five-year plan either. That means Yabu (23) will play meaningful minutes, until he's part of a package trade.

That's all the roster we've got left. :unsure:
 

Cellar-Door

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AD to Lakers, done deal.
Al Horford to a multi-year max contract somewhere else, 95% likelihood.
No-deal Kyrexit to Brooklyn, pending breakup meeting with Ainge, 99% likelihood.

The Irish backstop now looks like a five-year plan, peaking when their high-ceiling young talent hit an average age of 26. That means building around Tatum (21 years old), Brown (22), Williams (21), and whomever they draft in 2019 at 14, 20, 22, and in 2020 with the Memphis pick and their own. Then Ainge can switch from kicking the Celtics' acquired draft picks down the road, to trading away the Celtics' future draft picks for useful players.

Smart (25) is no longer in the Celtics' sweet spot, and will probably be traded in a year or two unless the Baes take great leaps forward. Smart is a gritty defender and complementary player for a championship contender (which the Celtics aren't) and has limited scoring firepower (which the Celtics now need).

Baynes (32) and Hayward (29) are not part of the five-year plan but too useful or overpriced (hence undervalued) to trade. Baynes will last a year or two before he breaks down or is dealt; Hayward's contract will be a counterweight in some disgruntled star acquisition in 2020. The GM's trading formula used to be: my mistake for your problem. With Hayward, it will be more like: my gimp for your jerk.

Rozier (24) will probably come back to the team for 4/48m. Rozier was a pill last year, but knowing what we now suppose about Kyrie Irving (ie, that he's a PITA), I'm thinking he'll get a restart, but then his contract becomes chump change for salary matching in a trade down the road. Wanamaker (29) looks like a cromulent 3rd string point guard, but he's not part of the long-term vision either. The Celtics will need a short-term, pass-first veteran point guard for the transition. Either Conley or Paul would help Tatum or Brown grow, but given the Conley and Paul contracts, a lower-budget acquisition like Rubio or Beverley is probably more in line with the long-term plan.

Semi (24) will see his patience rewarded. He's a useful cog in Stevens' defensive schemes and could stick around for a long time. Morris (29) will find greener pastures elsewhere. Theis (27) will probably come back to a team that knows how to use him, but he's not part of the five-year plan either. That means Yabu (23) will play meaningful minutes, until he's part of a package trade.

That's all the roster we've got left. :unsure:
Baynes has 1 year left, so he's either playing it out or getting dealt. Hayward should honestly just be kept, if he is back to where he was, suddenly you have a real asset to move (or you keep him as your vet if the team steps forward)

Rozier is the real wild-card. How much will the offer sheet he gets somewhere else be, and how badly did he burn bridges on his "get me the hell out of Boston" media tour?


If Rozier is allowed to walk, and they clear cap space by renouncing the rest (no real losses there, Morris no longer fits the timeline). The two targets that make a lot of sense are:
De'Angelo Russell
Julius Randle

Both coming off breakout years, both right in the age sweet spot (22 and 24 respectively)
 

scottyno

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Cs are going to have tons of cap space starting possibly as soon as next year if they don't waste it this summer by trading for someone like Paul, they can turn a rebuild into a contender very very quickly if they can actually draw in a top guy with that space.
 

nighthob

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They can also help other teams plans by taking mistakes into cap space if Horford does walk and accumulating future picks that way. They might try and use that path to grabbing extra picks in the 22 and 23 drafts to cover whichever one ends up being the double draft.
 

BaseballJones

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Cs are going to have tons of cap space starting possibly as soon as next year if they don't waste it this summer by trading for someone like Paul, they can turn a rebuild into a contender very very quickly if they can actually draw in a top guy with that space.
Yes, and if Brown and Tatum progress without Kyrie looming, then the rebuild ramps up really quickly. It ultimately depends on those two guys and their development. If they turn into two all-stars, the Celtics will be pretty good pretty soon. If they don't get to that next level, they're in trouble for a while, I'm afraid.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Do the cap rules allow for some sign and trade with the Nets where they wind up with Kyrie and the Celtics get D’Angelo Russell? We’d have to throw a draft asset their way for them to facilitate, but that would let us use the Kyrie salary slot to get an asset instead of nothing.

I mean, it’s more likely the Nets and Kyrie laughing it off, but maybe we could offer one of the first rounders this year to sweeten the offer.
 

DrewDawg

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Yes, and if Brown and Tatum progress without Kyrie looming, then the rebuild ramps up really quickly. It ultimately depends on those two guys and their development. If they turn into two all-stars, the Celtics will be pretty good pretty soon. If they don't get to that next level, they're in trouble for a while, I'm afraid.
This is why the Memphis pick can be HUGE. We need some lottery luck.
 

JakeRae

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The obvious plan if Horford is gone is to fill out the roster with one year commitments and set the team up to be a max contract player next off-season. Making long term commitments to anyone other than a star at this point makes little sense as it just locks up our cap space through the window before Brown and Tatum need to be paid and we are capped out again. Next year is a bridge year now.
 

DrewDawg

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So the back up plan is going all in, and hoping to draw to an inside straight?
I don't think it's that far-fetched. We own the potential lottery pick of a team that's likely to be in the lottery. We need some luck that it doesn't come to us next year, and conveys in 2 seasons near the top of the draft. A team that is rebuilding sometimes needs to get lucky with a draft pick.

It's nice when we need another team to suck for that to happen as opposed to us.
 

BaseballJones

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The obvious plan if Horford is gone is to fill out the roster with one year commitments and set the team up to be a max contract player next off-season. Making long term commitments to anyone other than a star at this point makes little sense as it just locks up our cap space through the window before Brown and Tatum need to be paid and we are capped out again. Next year is a bridge year now.
Personally, I'm fine with next year being a bridge year. Danny took a shot, and it didn't work. That's ok, most times taking a shot DOESN'T work out. Ask the Clips with Paul and Griffin, or Houston with Paul and Harden, or OKC with Westbrook and Durant, or, well, the list goes on. He took a shot, and it didn't work out. Ok, so time to retool. Use 2019-20 as a bridge year, using your suggested strategy. Let Tatum and Brown grow into stars. If they can't you're dead long-term anyway, so may as well use 2019-20 to develop them as much as possible. Hope Hayward improves. Give Time Lord some serious minutes. Draft well, maybe using multiple picks to move up to get a guy you really want. Then be major players in the 2020 free agency field, and by then these young guys will have improved (hopefully!) to the point where the next shot you take isn't far off. Unfortunately, the list of free agents in 2020 isn't as appealing, but oh well.
 

Cellar-Door

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2021 on the other hand looks like a monster class:
Giannis
Beal
Gobert
Oladipo
McCollum
Lillard

Plus possible player option opt outs in:
Holliday
PG13
Griffin
 

EL Jeffe

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My biggest concern going forward is that Tatum, Hayward and Brown don't really fit together on the same team. I figured that was going to resolve itself as at least one of them would be moved in an AD deal, but alas. If you're building around those three, where do they fit on the court? Particularly on the defensive end...and rebounding.
 

The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa

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This is why the Memphis pick can be HUGE. We need some lottery luck.
Not exactly related, but this conversation brought this story to mind:

Nearly 60% Of Millennials Look To Lottery For Retirement

I agree though, for all the planning and scouting and coaching, successful roster construction is probably not going to happen without a little luck in the draft (not just in the lottery) and on guys you take a flyer on.
 

Cellar-Door

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My biggest concern going forward is that Tatum, Hayward and Brown don't really fit together on the same team. I figured that was going to resolve itself as at least one of them would be moved in an AD deal, but alas. If you're building around those three, where do they fit on the court? Particularly on the defensive end...and rebounding.
Defensively I think they fit fine, they can all defend. I think they'll be used like the old GS Death Lineup. Tatum in the Barnes role, Hayward as the Iggy role, Brown as the Klay role (defensively at least, offensively it's probably swapped).