I can see the Lakers going up in flames and AD bolting. Highly unlikely, but possible.
There is no scenario where I see that happening and AD landing in Boston. What happened this offseason which makes people think that is even a remote possibility?
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There is no scenario where I see that happening and AD landing in Boston. What happened this offseason which makes people think that is even a remote possibility?
That would probably work if Hayward were Iggy, but Hayward's a pretty big defensive liability. You could deploy Iggy on the other team's top scorer and feel pretty good about it. Hayward gets matched up against the other team's weakest scorer.
If you've got Brown/Hayward/Tatum out there, who covers Giannis? Who covers Siakam? AD? Paul George? That's a heavy load to put on Tatum, who probably isn't up for it. Hayward definitely isn't up for it. Brown can handle it for a possession here and there, but he's 6'6".
I think those three are a recipe to give up buckets and offensive rebounds at a pretty alarming rate.
You can ask just about every team regarding Giannis. Brown maybe in some situations, like KL did in ECF. (YES I KNOW JAYLEN IS NOT KAWHI ON DEFENSE)
But AD? PG? We play them twice a year. And if we SOMEHOW have to play them in a longer series
I'm sure we'll figure it out.
I wouldn't read too much into Hayward's last season where he was obviously still hurt., though he wasn't that bad defensively especially late in the year. He was a very good defender in Utah.
Look at last year's five-man unit numbers. Unless I'm reading them wrong, the units with Brown-Tatum-Hayward underperformed significantly. And it makes sense because you have no one in that lineup who can really guard a big or rebound.
From what I saw, Tatum as a small ball 4 was a flop. He isn't physical enough to guard anyone or rebound.
From what I saw, Tatum as a small ball 4 was a flop. He isn't physical enough to guard anyone or rebound.
Doesn't RWIII own AD?You can ask just about every team regarding Giannis. Brown maybe in some situations, like KL did in ECF. (YES I KNOW JAYLEN IS NOT KAWHI ON DEFENSE)
But AD? PG? We play them twice a year. And if we SOMEHOW have to play them in a longer series
Yes, this is exactly where I am. I think a lot of us hoped Tatum would grow into a modern small ball 4 but it hasn't happened. He's not physical, he's not a strong rebounder, he's not going to defend the paint - you can talk about position-less basketball, but someone still has to do those things. Tatum's a very good player, and I hope he becomes an excellent player, but he's a 3. Hayward is essentially a 3. Brown is a 2/3. Tatum is still young and he could conceivably become a viable 4. But for now, that mix of players isn't working.
Brown/Tatum/Hayward played 385 minutes together. The team was +5.8 when they were on floor together.
Only one other 3 man grouping (including Brown) was better: Brown, Hayward, Theis (+10.8).
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/brownja02/lineups/2019
Hayward had a few other combos that did better. Tatum did as well. But I'm not sure +5.8 is underperforming.
Russell is interesting because he’s only a year older than Brown, so he fits the timeline, and he plays a position we’re suddenly very thin at. I’d rather pay him the second contract max than pay Rozier whatever he’ll get.
Agreed. It might be an overpay, but taking a chance that a player like Russell continues to improve might be one of the only moves that Danny can realistically make.
Another option could be to overpay Brogdon to whatever point MIL can't match after Middleton re-signs. I don't think he'd even require the second contract max, right? He might actually be a better roster fit since he doesn't need the ball in his hands.
Irving-Brown-Tatum-Hayward-Horford (142 minutes) was nowhere near as good as when Brown was replaced with Smart or Morris. That lineup (again, if I'm reading right) was the worst at points-per-possession of any Irving-led group.
| Lineups | GP | W | L | MIN | OffRtg | DefRtg | NetRtg | AST% | AST/TO | AST Ratio | OREB% | DREB% | REB% | TOV% | eFG% | TS% | PACE | PIE |
| 2018-19 | 82 | . | . | 3956 | 111.2 | 107 | 4.2 | 62.4 | 2.05 | 18.8 | 25.7 | 72.8 | 49.5 | 12.7 | 53.4 | 56.7 | 100.47 | 53 |
| .G. Hayward, .J. Brown, .J. Tatum | 49 | 29 | 20 | 385 | 104.1 | 97.7 | 6.3 | 62.5 | 1.95 | 17.9 | 24.7 | 74.7 | 49.8 | 12.5 | 52.1 | 55.6 | 104.57 | 53.3 |
| G. Hayward, .T. Rozier, .J. Brown, .J. Tatum | 31 | 20 | 11 | 162 | 110.2 | 96.8 | 13.4 | 67.6 | 2.19 | 19.4 | 29.8 | 69.3 | 49.7 | 12.6 | 53.9 | 57.5 | 102.24 | 57.1 |
| . Hayward, .M. Smart, .T. Rozier, .J. Tatum | 27 | 17 | 10 | 87 | 107 | 97.4 | 9.6 | 59.5 | 2 | 16.7 | 35.9 | 68.4 | 52.4 | 11.8 | 54.3 | 56.7 | 104.04 | 55.4 |
| G. Hayward, .M. Smart, .J. Brown, .J. Tatum | 18 | 10 | 8 | 21 | 81.5 | 92.9 | -11.4 | 68.8 | 2.75 | 15.9 | 17.4 | 76 | 47.9 | 7.4 | 48.6 | 52.7 | 124.53 | 46.9 |
| Hayward, .A. Baynes, .J. Brown, .J. Tatum | 14 | 9 | 5 | 49 | 114.2 | 103.7 | 10.4 | 56.8 | 1.79 | 16.4 | 38.9 | 70.8 | 53.9 | 13.2 | 53.6 | 57.4 | 104.42 | 50.6 |
| .G. Hayward, .A. Baynes, .T. Rozier, .J. Brown, .J. Tatum | 9 | 7 | 2 | 31 | 109.2 | 101.5 | 7.8 | 57.7 | 1.88 | 15.8 | 40.5 | 67.6 | 53.5 | 12.3 | 49.2 | 53 | 102.33 | 51 |
| .G. Hayward, .A. Baynes, .M. Smart, .T. Rozier, .J. Brown | 11 | 5 | 6 | 28 | 95 | 81 | 14 | 84.2 | 1.6 | 18.6 | 30.3 | 67.7 | 48.4 | 16.7 | 46.2 | 50.1 | 106.86 | 52.1 |
So this is the team as a whole, the Tatum/Brown/Hayward 3 man, then the 4 and 5 man rotations including Baynes and Smart/Rozier, so likely starters next year if we brought back Rozier.
Overall...
rebounding overall was a mixed bag, though offensive rebounding was generally better.
The defense was generally really really good,
Offense was worse than the team as a whole as would be expected
Except for one horrific 4 man stretch, the net rating was much better.
Overall, I'd say the evidence from last year points to this being a really good defensive trio, who are acceptable on offense and the boards.
Edit- all data from stats.nba.com
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I'd love to have Brogdon running the show for Boston. Very solid player, would be super helpful. Not sure he's gettable but he'd be fantastic.
Tatum-Brown-Hayward-Russell would be a very fun "core" to root for, if nothing else.
Russel and Randle would definitely be my 1A and 1B if the Celtics are going to sign a major free agent this summer.
He's gettable if the Horford/Milwaukee rumors are true. Because they'd need to lose Snell and Ilyasova to make it happen, so something along the lines of Horford for Snell/Ilyasova/Brogdon two way sign & trade works.
I think that even though Milwaukee could theoretically keep all of Brogdon/Middleton/Lopez, they’d be hard capped in the end and well over the luxury tax. If the Bucks waive/renounce the right players and buyout Hill, they’ll need to sign Lopez first while they’re still under the cap (and while Brogdon’s hold is only ~$3M) before using Brogdon and Middleton’s bird rights to go significantly into the luxury tax.
So at the very least, an expensive, early free agency Brogdon offer sheet could impact their ability to keep Lopez if they decide to match and give Milwaukee second thoughts as to whether it’s worth re-signing Mirotic over Brogdon.
So at the very least, an expensive, early free agency Brogdon offer sheet could impact their ability to keep Lopez if they decide to match and give Milwaukee second thoughts as to whether it’s worth re-signing Mirotic over Brogdon.
Probably not, but Time Lord has several characteristics that make him a candidate for the five-year plan:
1) his aging curve fits with Tatum and Brown, so if he'll be good, he'll be good at the right time, while still being cheap;
2) he has a high ceiling because of his shot-blocking skills. To be sure, he also has a low floor because of his questionable maturity and limitations on offense, but he also has plenty of time to improve his high-post jumper; and
3) the Celtics will need big men more than ever after Horford's departure, so Williams will get as much playing time as his development merits, and possibly more.
That's all true. But on the other hand, I could just as easily see him as salary filler in a deal tomorrow.
I see speculation about the C's clearing space for a max free agent, letting Rozier and Morris go and ditching their picks seems to get you to 32M or so in space. But who would we be targeting that's worth clearing out that much depth? Randle? Russell? I'm guessing Kawhi isn't headed our way.
Russell seems like an Ainge kind of guy. Young and with enough warts that some teams will shy away. However he has a fair bit of upside and would fit on the roster with the Js.
I am sure Danny will call Durant's agent and try, but I don't think it's at all likely. Otherwise, I think they are as likely to use the space to absorb bad contracts in exchange for assets as they are to spend it.
Personally, my hope is that they use it for a balance of pick salaries, accepting an asset dump if a favorable one presents itself, and spending some on failed picks with upside.
These would be two of my least favorite guys to sign.
If I'm paying up for dudes that don't defend, they better be Kyrie level special on offense.
BSJ answers my question. https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2019/06/19/celtics-target-free-agency-newfound-cap-room/
Vucevic is an interesting one that there hasn't been much chatter about. Always been a stat filler but by DRPM he had an excellent defensive season this year as well. Apparently I don't watch the Magic much because I don't have a real impression of him. Thomas Bryant is another, only 21, can shoot the 3 and seems to defend well.
He hit 33% of 99 attempts. Is that enough to show that he can shoot the three? He did hit 78% of his FTs, so it's possible there's more there, but I don't have full access to your link.
The article doesn't have any more in depth to it, just describes him that way. A 21 year old who shoots 33% from 3? I'm willing to say he can shoot. He shot reasonably well in college as well, IIRC.
Yeah, just wondering what else is there. It's such a small number that I'm bored and playing with it.
Take away the 8 of 12 he hit in January and he's 29%.
Ignore the 1 of 10 in Oct/Nov and he's 36%.
In two years at Indiana, Thomas put up 75 three pointers and made 28 of them, which is 37%. Not a big enough sample to persuade me either way.
With Baynes and one of the firsts sent to PHO, how does that leave us in terms of cap space? (In the various options vis a vis Rozier and Morris)
Simmons said we have 25.8 (coincidentally that is Steven Adams number) but I believe we can get higher through a few moves. Up to 35 I think.
one move, if we renounce Rozier's RFA rights we have max money (up to a 9 year vet) with a few million left over
Can we sign a max guy and then sign and trade Horford to a capped team? I hate how complicated this is.
And all of us guys thought the chances of the Celtics essentially rebooting...er, retooling...er, pivoting...er, what the hell is this? In any event, who saw this coming (nighthob sit down!).
My money is on D-Lo coming to Boston. And I will be so happy if that is part of the plan.
no, we only have space if we renounce the rights to all our FAs. So basically we have space only once Kyrie/Horford/Rozier/Morris are gone
Thanks.
Woj mention Cs as a possibility for Vuc. I don’t know if I like that. I would rather Russell.
Woj mention Cs as a possibility for Vuc. I don’t know if I like that. I would rather Russell.
I *love* Russell. I'll take him and some vet min guy at center over Terry & Vuc (and I've had Vuc in something like 4 straight fantasy basketball seasons).
Per Shams, Celtics targeting Vucevic and bringing back Rozier:
https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2019/06/boston-celtics-rumors-nikola-vucevic-terry-rozier-will-be-top-priorities-for-celtics-this-summer.html
https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2019/06/boston-celtics-rumors-nikola-vucevic-terry-rozier-will-be-top-priorities-for-celtics-this-summer.html
That sounds horrible. Danny's fascination with Terry is bordering insanity at this point.
So when all is said and done...
- Kyrie gone
- Horford gone
- Baynes gone
- $25.8 million in cap space available
- likely to re-sign Rozier
- possibly going after Vucevic (whose numbers are way better than I thought: 20.8 pts, 12.0 reb, 51.8% fg, 36.4% from three, 3.8 assists)
- added two future picks from Phoenix and Milwaukee
- drafted Langford, Williams, Edwards, and Waters
Thoughts on the draft picks:
- Langford: Meh. Good athlete, slasher, don't really know how well he can shoot because he played with a hand injury last year. But not loving the pick.
- Williams: Very tough inside, and can do a lot of things pretty well. I think he will end up being a solid pro, though not ever reaching "star" status.
- Edwards: The guy can score. Put up 42 on Villanova in the NCAA tourney. Shot like 40% from three for his college career. Small, scoring point guard.
- Waters: Small (5'11"), defensive-minded player. Probably will never see the light of day in the NBA.
On the whole, a big pile of meh on the draft. It's impossible to tell right now if any of these guys will be impactful players. I can see why Ainge took each of them, but I can also see why other teams did NOT take each of them. Now they have five guys between 6'6" and 6'8": Tatum, Hayward, Brown, Langford, and Williams. Each is a little different player, but that's a lot of wing-types, though Williams can play more inside than the rest.
The guard situation...Smart, possibly Rozier back, Edwards, just not super inspiring.
Center...adding Vucevic would be interesting. Good offensive player, just 28. Would fill a need but is he the right guy for what would probably be a max deal? I don't know. This has been as bad an offseason, following as disappointing a season, as we all could have imagined. Hoping that we are all very pleasantly surprised. And that's entirely possible.
- Kyrie gone
- Horford gone
- Baynes gone
- $25.8 million in cap space available
- likely to re-sign Rozier
- possibly going after Vucevic (whose numbers are way better than I thought: 20.8 pts, 12.0 reb, 51.8% fg, 36.4% from three, 3.8 assists)
- added two future picks from Phoenix and Milwaukee
- drafted Langford, Williams, Edwards, and Waters
Thoughts on the draft picks:
- Langford: Meh. Good athlete, slasher, don't really know how well he can shoot because he played with a hand injury last year. But not loving the pick.
- Williams: Very tough inside, and can do a lot of things pretty well. I think he will end up being a solid pro, though not ever reaching "star" status.
- Edwards: The guy can score. Put up 42 on Villanova in the NCAA tourney. Shot like 40% from three for his college career. Small, scoring point guard.
- Waters: Small (5'11"), defensive-minded player. Probably will never see the light of day in the NBA.
On the whole, a big pile of meh on the draft. It's impossible to tell right now if any of these guys will be impactful players. I can see why Ainge took each of them, but I can also see why other teams did NOT take each of them. Now they have five guys between 6'6" and 6'8": Tatum, Hayward, Brown, Langford, and Williams. Each is a little different player, but that's a lot of wing-types, though Williams can play more inside than the rest.
The guard situation...Smart, possibly Rozier back, Edwards, just not super inspiring.
Center...adding Vucevic would be interesting. Good offensive player, just 28. Would fill a need but is he the right guy for what would probably be a max deal? I don't know. This has been as bad an offseason, following as disappointing a season, as we all could have imagined. Hoping that we are all very pleasantly surprised. And that's entirely possible.
A max to Vucevic makes zero sense to me. Treadmill move.
Guy puts up career-best numbers and plays defense for the first time at 28 in a contract year? Pass.
Guy puts up career-best numbers and plays defense for the first time at 28 in a contract year? Pass.
That would be so underwhelming. Get young talent. D’Angelo Russell is the guy I now want.