I'd like to draw your attention to Masahiro Tanaka
- Thread starter Tokyo Sox
- Start date
Let's handicap this.
I think the Dodgers are the odds-on favorite for Tanaka. They are crazy flush with cash, are way past the luxury limit, and just plain don't give a fuck.
I have the Mariners as the second contender here, due to the posting cap, the Cano signing, and their (pre-arbitration) current commitments of $68 million to the roster next season. I don't know if it counts for much, but they obviously have a successful history with Japanese baseball players.
After that, anything goes. Lots of candidates, and not just the Red Sox and Yankees. Plenty of relatively rich teams have been holding their cards close and teams like Baltimore are on the cusp of contention and need pitching in the worst way. Plus, you have self-styled contenders like Philadelphia who need pitching, too. And wildcards like the Cubs.
I think the Dodgers are the odds-on favorite for Tanaka. They are crazy flush with cash, are way past the luxury limit, and just plain don't give a fuck.
I have the Mariners as the second contender here, due to the posting cap, the Cano signing, and their (pre-arbitration) current commitments of $68 million to the roster next season. I don't know if it counts for much, but they obviously have a successful history with Japanese baseball players.
After that, anything goes. Lots of candidates, and not just the Red Sox and Yankees. Plenty of relatively rich teams have been holding their cards close and teams like Baltimore are on the cusp of contention and need pitching in the worst way. Plus, you have self-styled contenders like Philadelphia who need pitching, too. And wildcards like the Cubs.
There could be two strategies to approach this signing.
You either offer Tanaka years or money.
A three year contract for 16- 22 M might be more attractive to him than a 5- 6 year deal for 15-18M.
One thing that has changed with the new posting system is it is no longer absolutely necessary to control the player for 6-6 years in order to get a return on the investment of the posting fee.
You either offer Tanaka years or money.
A three year contract for 16- 22 M might be more attractive to him than a 5- 6 year deal for 15-18M.
One thing that has changed with the new posting system is it is no longer absolutely necessary to control the player for 6-6 years in order to get a return on the investment of the posting fee.
StuckOnYouk said:
They have said repeatedly its a goal and not a mandate although many suspect its really a mandate. I do hope they spend like a druggie, or at least my wife .
When you consider 20 million is the average development cost (including the cost of those who never make it) and teams factor in the cost in determining what they can pay in salary any team who wants an elite pitcher in his age 25-31 years should be interested. Whether Tanaka is truly elite, I don't know, but anyone who thinks he is has to be interested since you have teams paying Phil Hughes 3/24 and old men like Kuroda who imploded at the end of last season is making 17 million. Not enough good pitching for 30 teams.
Doctor G said:
I think you have seriously underrated the market. IMO any team offering only 3 years will be laughed away. Its going to take both years and dollars. He is essentially a free agent at age 25 who is projected to produce 4-5 WAR per year in his first few years. Taking into account the posting fee which should retard his salary by that amount, I think a minimum offer would need to be 6/120-130 to have a chance.
I think 120-130 over 6 would be a very accurate range if all the teams were operating from the same level of need. I could reasonably see the the Cubs(desperate for a move to satisfy the fan base and by far the team that has leaked the most to the media) Yankees(sheer desperation) Seattle going to the 150-160 range. The Cherington Regime has been extremely tight lipped with how they internally project this guy.
I think theres a high probability there will be a player opt out early on perhaps after year 3 or 4 as a perk or maybe some option years tacked on. There's really no template for this type of a process. Should be highly intriguing and tomorrow is when those teams interested have to declare their willingness to pay the initial 20 mill.
I think theres a high probability there will be a player opt out early on perhaps after year 3 or 4 as a perk or maybe some option years tacked on. There's really no template for this type of a process. Should be highly intriguing and tomorrow is when those teams interested have to declare their willingness to pay the initial 20 mill.
MakMan44 said:
I'm not trying to be a wise ass, but other than this weird cap year when they used the revenue sharing as an excuse to not sign Cano or Choo, when else has NY not signed someone they wanted because of money? It won't matter in 2016, 2020, or 2030. They spent about $100m more on payroll (including tax) last year than any other team besides LA. I don't see that changing much in the near future.
Doctor G said:
I'm assuming you mean 3/66 and 6/108, correct? Because you can't possibly think he's going to sign a 3/22M deal, right?
Also, he isn't doing all this for a 3-year deal. Teams aren't paying a $20M posting fee for a three year deal. The conversations start around 6 years for $70M, but no team is getting him for less than 6 years
glennhoffmania said:
Well, this is the first year of revenue sharing where the tax threshold was 189 and somewhat achievable, as opposed to 178 million previously. On the surface, you are right and nothing much else has changed except a new stadium that reduced their revenue sharing burden and gives them even more revenue, a News Corp deal that landed them 400+ million and the national tv money that increased their revenues another 25 million. Yet here we are in lala land where every move over the last 2 years seems to be made with the 189 goal in mind. Last year they lost 50 million in revenue because they could not afford Martin or other significant free agents looking ahead to 2014.
This year its been a mixed bag, signing Ellsbury, McCann and Beltran, but losing Cano and replacing him with Brian Roberts, and seemingly replacing Arod with Kelly Johnson while not doing very much to bolster the bullpen or rotation to replace the loss of Rivera and Pettitte and making noises about relying on in-house options.
So do they blow past 189 and compete with Tanaka or not?. I don't know that their past spending habits is all that predictive here. I think they can and should do it, but would not bet that they do.
For all we know Tanaka might have a strong preference for someplace else so no guarantee they land him if they decide to go after him.
They can offer more money, but would it be enough to offset the tax, cost of living and housing cost differential. Also, what pitcher in their right mind chooses to pitch in the AL East in that park when they could pitch in the NL and/or a pitcher friendly park (assuming the Dodgers or Mariners are in). Under the old posting system players like Daisuke, Darvish and Igawa had no choice where they played. Tanaka clearly will have a choice.
As Sampo pointed out, it's on the first year into the new contract. We don't know really know what the longer term effects could be right now. That's not to suggest you couldn't be correct but I'm trying to see a positive side to this I suppose.glennhoffmania said:
Dream scenario: bidding gets out of hand for Tanaka. The Yankees go crazy and sign him for 200 million dollars. Tanaka develops into a 4th starter.
yes that is what I meant. I just find it hard to believe that any GM is willing to commit to over 20 M for 5+ years given the track record of NPB pitchers. Daisuke was pretty much done after two years. Even Nomo was not very effective after his first three years with LA. This is the kind of deal that could be a huge albatross once Tanaka is up around the 1900 IPs level. He's at 1300 IPs now with over 50 complete games.NDame616 said:
The reason I mentioned the 3 year deal is that that allows him to hit the market potentially two more times as a free agent. It also mitigates some of the risk for the signing team.
glennhoffmania said:
I actually think it's happened quite a bit, especially after Cashman got the late go-ahead to go after Teixeira in 2008, which I believe he got in exchange for being content with not going after any big FAs for the following few years).
Cliff Lee (possibly there were other reasons here, but PHI's bid was also close to NY's if not higher), Yu Darvish, Matt Holliday, Carl Crawford (thankfully in retrospect), Swisher and Martin last year, I'm sure I could come up with more examples if I really tried.
FWIW, this is a hard one to read, but I believe the bidding will be crazy for Tanaka, NY won't get him and they'll stick to the $189M ceiling. This would change if A-Rod's suspension is shortened (which it seems like they should know before Tanaka's deadline) and they're over the $189M anyway, but even then I wouldn't be surprised to see them outbid. It's a new era.
Shit it looks like my last response didn't make it over to the new server. To summarize, I think that 2014 is a one time exception due to the revenue sharing issue, so going forward they'll be back to spending $250m+ and signing Tanaka will have no impact on their spending starting next year.
As for the examples JA gave, I think that all of them can be easily explained or aren't correct (ie., they did offer Lee more money but he preferred to be in Philly, Darvish was posted and not a FA, etc). If NY wants someone and that player wants top dollar, they'll get him. If they want to be elsewhere or NY only makes a token offer for PR purposes that they know will be rejected (ie., Cano) that's another story.
As for the examples JA gave, I think that all of them can be easily explained or aren't correct (ie., they did offer Lee more money but he preferred to be in Philly, Darvish was posted and not a FA, etc). If NY wants someone and that player wants top dollar, they'll get him. If they want to be elsewhere or NY only makes a token offer for PR purposes that they know will be rejected (ie., Cano) that's another story.
If Tanaka is the real deal, $189MM be damned, full speed ahead. He makes too much sense for the Ys not to go hard for him. If top $ is the decider, I can't imagine any team than the LAD could outbid them. Whether he wants to play in NYC is another story.
SemperFidelisSox said:
There's one clarification I was hoping someone could provide. Under the new system, the posting fee is "capped" at $20 mil. Because of the interest in Tanaka, clearly teams will just offer the maximum posting fee. However, what happens with more marginal players that get posted who might only command a posting fee of, say, $10 mil? I've read in some places that the player's Japanese club sets the posting fee, but I've read elsewhere that it is still a blind bid. Does anyone know how this process would work for less-hyped Japanese players that are posted?
I think the MFY are going to quietly let Casey Close know that if Slappy is not suspended all year, which they should know before the end of the posting period, they'll beat any offer on the table. If Slappy is suspended, I don't think they exceed $189 for Tanaka when Price, Lester, Kershaw, etc., are going to be on the market soon, but we'll see.
Casey Close is also the agent for Jeter and Teixeira. Is there anything to conclude from this choice? (Also manages Kershaw and Greinke.) How is Boras missing out on these guys?
I'm going with the M's as the favorites for Tanaka. I think they would have shipped Taijuan Walker to TB for Price had he been willing to sign a LT extension - which tells me they likely have the cash to pay market rate for a frontline starter. Using the Price money to sign Tanaka (7/160?) allows them to grab a potential ace for just cash and still keep Walker. Also, their history with Japanese players (Ichiro, Kaz Sasaki, Johjima) and the presence of Iwakuma may be appealing to Tanaka. They certainly don't seem averse to overpaying at the moment.
If any team is willing to give Tanaka 7/160, I'll just walk away from making predictions in the offseason for the rest of my life.
I'm going with the Yankees as the most likely destination for Tanaka, since very indication is that he wants to play in New York. Don't think it's any more complicated than that.
I would like a link that says he wants to play in New York. All I have heard is he prefers the west coast.
I would like a link that says he wants to play in New York. All I have heard is he prefers the west coast.
Tom Verducci brought up this point I think
At the age of 24, Tanaka has thrown 1300+ innings. The last MLB pitcher to do the same was Frank Tanana who threw 1319 innings/age 24. Tanana was never the same afterwards
So the innings on that arm is a concern I think.
At the age of 24, Tanaka has thrown 1300+ innings. The last MLB pitcher to do the same was Frank Tanana who threw 1319 innings/age 24. Tanana was never the same afterwards
So the innings on that arm is a concern I think.
SemperFidelisSox said:
Yeah, this changes the dynamic we've all been discussing on NPB players completely. First every team can negotiate, and *then* the winner pays the posting fee.
From AP:
All 30 major league teams were notified that the 30-day period to sign the star 25-year-old right-hander began at 8 a.m. EST Thursday, according to MLB spokesman Michael Teevan. Clubs have until 5 p.m. on Jan. 24 to attempt to reach an agreement with the ace.
If Tanaka and a major league team come to terms, that franchise is required to pay his Japanese club, the Rakuten Eagles, a posting fee, now capped at $20 million under a deal reached two weeks ago between MLB and Nippon Professional Baseball.
They'll certainly be interesting to watch, though I wouldn't call them the favorites yet. They sent some signals about not wanting to keep spending, but maybe that was misdirection. Other factors:sketz said:
* Their Japanese owner recently passed away. Hiroshi Yamauchi was determined to stay hands-off and only bought the team as a way to thank Seattle for its historic support of Nintendo. But if there was a tendency to want to bring on Japanese players because of Yamauchi, that's perhaps changed. They're still owned by Nintendo though.
* Their new local TV deal is putting something like $100 mil into the team annually, as predicted and averaged over the 20 years of the deal. So they have long-term economic security and big-budget potential.
* Viewership (and interest generally) is way down out here. So things that change the team in a splashy, positive way (like winning) will undoubtedly lead to improved attendance and viewership. Add in the new cable deal and paying Tanaka is essentially putting money back into their own pockets.
* Nintendo connection or no, Tanaka is likely to bring along quite a bit of attention from Japanese fans. I've sat next to visiting Japanese families at Safeco even when Ichiro was terrible, so presumably an effective Tanaka will be a big draw. Not sure how the TV stuff works with an international audience, but it has to help?
Bottom line is, the Mariners can likely afford the price. Their willingness to entertain some ludicrous offers for Price suggests that they're not stupid enough to think they don't need starting pitching. Paxton, Walker and Hultzen probably won't all be stars, especially not in the next year or so. Which leaves only Tanaka's willingness to play here (complete unknown) and whether Jack Z's total insecurity leads him to make a play or not (complete unknown).
LeoCarrillo said:
Wouldn't they have to submit a posting fee number before they start negotiating?
I thought only the winner of the posting fee bid (or those tied) get the opportunity to negotiate.
That only makes sense to me - given you could very well have non-stars being offered up that no team would post the max for.
That's only 47 innings more than Darvish at the same age. Perhaps it is, but shouldn't he be compared to pitchers pitching in the same league, schedule, et cetera.soxhop411 said:
geoduck no quahog said:
This is what I -- and I think everyone here -- had assumed. Although, when you think about it, it may be an academic point. If you're not interested in posting the $20M for Tanaka you just won't call his agent and get in the negotiations to sign him.
On your second point, the Japanese team sets the posting fee first. Which seems to *not* benefit the Japanese team, in that it's a non-auction for the rights to negotiate. I'm not sure where that leaves the Hideki Okajimas of the world. What if the team sets the posting fee too high? Then nobody jumps in, the NPB team gets nothing and the player is stuck. I guess we'll see how it plays out.
soxhop411 said:
That's a legitimate concern but Darvish threw almost as many and is still going strong. However, Tanaka's k/9 has declined since peaking at age 22 .
age 22, 9.6 k/9
age 23, 8.8 k/9
age 24, 7.8 k/9
Maybe he is just pitching to contact more, I have no idea, but any team planning to plop down 100+ million on him better put their MRI to work on him first.
Also, at age 24 his FB velocity is typically 90-92 although he has topped out at 96 with the 4 seamer. If his FB declines as it does with most pitchers with age he may get quite different results at the end of any deal when he is down to 88-90 mph. I would probably be more concerned if I did not see Koji render hitters helpless at 88 mph, but we can't be sure he gets the same results as a starter as Koji does as a closer.
Interesting article here anyways
http://irfast.blogspot.tw/2013/08/masahiro-tanaka-scouting-report.html
Couldn't agree more. I'm thinking 7/110 (including the posting fee) is more realistic. That said, the M's are still my favorites to land him as they seem to be flush with cash, a good locale for Asian players, and legitimate contenders in the west with a rotation of Felix, Iwakuma, and Tanaka even if their offense isn't as strong as they might like. Plus, they'll likely find it easier to sign other offensive players who previously might not have wanted to play in Seattle now that they see the team is committed to fielding a contender. Overpaying on Cano and Tanaka might mean they won't have to overpay on others down the road just to gy them to take you seriously.crow216 said:
What are the revenue implications for the Yankees in signing Tanaka
1 Potential for up to 50 million in post season revenue if he is the difference between making the playoffs or not (per WSJ article linked above)
2. Say an additional 100,000 seats sold in games he pitches at home. At 86 dollars a pop, that's about 8.6 million
3. Merchandise sales at stadium (Tanaka jerseys, etc) ???
4, Revenue from YES games being picked up by Japan ????
5. Additional sponsors and increasing advertisement revenues in stadium. ????
6. Increased YES ratings and advertising revenues for all games, but esp Tanaka games ????
The costs are
Tanakas salary and posting fee, say 20 million AAV + 20 million
About 10 million in tax per year
If the Yankees are ok with going over 189, I can see them going 7/130 + 20 million posting and doing better than just breaking even in year 1, assuming he pitches well
1 Potential for up to 50 million in post season revenue if he is the difference between making the playoffs or not (per WSJ article linked above)
2. Say an additional 100,000 seats sold in games he pitches at home. At 86 dollars a pop, that's about 8.6 million
3. Merchandise sales at stadium (Tanaka jerseys, etc) ???
4, Revenue from YES games being picked up by Japan ????
5. Additional sponsors and increasing advertisement revenues in stadium. ????
6. Increased YES ratings and advertising revenues for all games, but esp Tanaka games ????
The costs are
Tanakas salary and posting fee, say 20 million AAV + 20 million
About 10 million in tax per year
If the Yankees are ok with going over 189, I can see them going 7/130 + 20 million posting and doing better than just breaking even in year 1, assuming he pitches well
NY has Ichiro and Kuroda already, I don't think (but maybe I'm wrong?) that Tanaka is nearly as big a star in Japan as guys like Matsui or Matsuzaka were when they came over.
But I definitely think that 100,000 extra tickets sold estimate is insane, that is roughly 6000 tickets assuming he makes 17-18 starts at home per year. Does any pitcher in baseball draw that many extra ticket buyers? Maybe King Felix? Kershaw? Verlander? The list has got to be very short, if not zero.
But I definitely think that 100,000 extra tickets sold estimate is insane, that is roughly 6000 tickets assuming he makes 17-18 starts at home per year. Does any pitcher in baseball draw that many extra ticket buyers? Maybe King Felix? Kershaw? Verlander? The list has got to be very short, if not zero.
jon abbey said:
Well, I think he'll get a lot of people who want to go see him at least once, but if he stinks....it doesn't matter what his following was like in Japan.
FWIW, SEA's attendance in 2012 in games King Felix started (24,251) and in other games (20,403) was less than a 4000 per game difference (sourced from the comments here, someone compiled the numbers themselves from BR: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/felix-hernandezsuperstars-and-frictional-costs/), and I wouldn't be surprised if he led baseball in that stat.
jon abbey said:
Well, when Matsui and Matsuzaka came over it was a huge deal, and they probably came over at or near the height of their popularity. If Ma-kun hadn't just put up the season he did, I would say you are absolutely correct. But given the whole 24-0, 1.27, Japan-Series-Champs-for-a-city-in-need story line, I think he's close. Throw in the big changes to the posting system which have been extensively covered in the domestic media, and Rakuten's flip-flopping on whether to post him, and this kid has a ton of people in his corner right now. He is a huge story.
That said I think generally speaking there is now enough saturation of Japanese players in MLB that for each new guy that goes over there is starting to be a law of diminishing returns effect on marginal/extra ticket sales. 6k/game does sound high, I agree.
jon abbey said:
So comparing a small market team that lost 85 games with a team like NY playing in a huge market which is a huge tourist destination and one which would compete and perhaps be a 90 Win team is a good comp? Factor in the 2 variables, Tanaka and a competitive team "which requires Tanaka" and I don't think 6000 additional fans in his starts is unrealistic. Especially when Yankees attendance in 2013 was down about 7000 per game from its peak in 2010. If anything, I am understating his impact since he probably boosts attendance in games he does not pitch by virtue of making the Yankees competitive. Obviously, you have to allocate the increase among the other free agents as well so its not a simple calculation.
This article assumes 4000 extra fans per game since its the credit Matsui was given when he came over, but Matsui was an every day player so he was credited with drawing 320,000 fans. Squeeze that into fewer games played for a pitcher in his prime and 100,000 seems reasonable for Tanaka, especially in the first year.
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/york-yankees-afford-overpay-masahiro-tanaka-225300649--mlb.html
The Japanese will root for any Japanese player in the MLB, even players from competitors, and those that do well will have the biggest following. Ultimately, it will be up to Tanaka and how he performs as to how big his following will be. With Ichiro in serious decline and unlikely to be starting many games I suspect fewer Yankee games would be picked up in Japan in 2013 and Tanaka would offset that decline.
i
We're arguing past each other as I don't think Tanaka will be an ace in the US and I certainly don't think he'd make NY a genuine contender. If we were talking about Yu Darvish, then I agree that NY should break the bank for him, but they already missed their chance there.
And if anything, a bad team with a star pitcher would have more of an attendance effect than a contender with a star pitcher, since there's no reason to go see the first team every day.
If I bet on sports still (I stopped cold turkey decades ago), I would bet a massive sum against a 6K per game boost in Tanaka starts for NY. But IMO we'll never know, as I think he'll end up elsewhere.
If I bet on sports still (I stopped cold turkey decades ago), I would bet a massive sum against a 6K per game boost in Tanaka starts for NY. But IMO we'll never know, as I think he'll end up elsewhere.
Yaz4Ever said:
What are you basing this on? With the new system, he's basically a normal free agent and Bartolo Colon just got 2 years at 10 million a piece... at age 41 and ~270 pounds. The market is absolutely batty. I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if a team went 5 years and 85 million to sign Tanaka. Hell, it wouldn't shock me to see him get closer to 20 a year considering the Yankees are in the mix and could decide to get a bit crazy if ARod's suspension is reduced and 189 million goes out the window anyway.
For the record, at that price, I want the Red Sox staying far away.
Isn't any contract going to need to be 6 years? At the end of a 5 year contract, he would still be eligible for arbitration.Snodgrass'Muff said:
SirPsychoSquints said:
Not necessarily. Cespedes signed a 4 year deal after his defection from Cuba, for example. Teams might want to mitigate the long term risk by going shorter years, or Tanaka might want to get back to free agency earlier by agreeing to a shorter contract with an agreement that the team won't offer arbitration after it expires.
With no penalty for dipping your toes in the water, there will be a lot of teams negotiating and he will get a minimum of 6/100. I can't think of a reason he wouldn't.