I'd like to draw your attention to Masahiro Tanaka
- Thread starter Tokyo Sox
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soxhop411 said:
I generally like Verducci's writing but I think to put things in proper context you need to mention that in Japan pitchers generally get 6 days of rest between starts. That's significant.
Yaz4Ever said:
That's the beauty of being a free agent that is sought after by multiple teams with deep pockets. Who would have thought Ellsbury gets 22 million a year.
The only way he makes less than 17 million a year IMO is if some team is smart enough to give him a 10 year deal so as to reduce the AAV, or if MLB scouting reports simply don't project him to be a 4-5 WAR pitcher or his MRI's look like a train wreck.
How many of those 11 pitchers are really comparable to Tanaka though? Yes, they're all Japanese born -- but which of them dominated the NPB at a young age and came to MLB in their mid-20s?
Didn't really come through NPB:
- Mac Suzuki: came up through MILB
- Tomo Ohka: came over at age 23, just 57.1 IP in NPB prior to US debut
- Hisashi Iwakuma: came to MLB at age 31
- Hiroki Kuroda: came to MLB at age 33
- Masato Yoshii: came to MLB at age 33
- Kenshin Kawakami: came to MLB at age 34
- Hideki Irabu
- Kaz Ishii
Koji Uehara and Kei Igawa could probably be added to the list, Koji in the came old/succeeded column and Igawa in the young/flopped category.
ForceAtHome said:
Thought it useful to compare those 4 pitchers K/9 in the year before coming over and 1st year in the majors
Nomo - 9.9 Japan/11.1 MLB
Darvish - 10.7/10.4
Matsuzaka -9.7/8.8
Tanaka -7.8/??
Not that K/9 tells the whole story but we really are in uncharted territory with someone like Tanaka.
Just for the heck of it, here is Koji
Koji -7.2/6.5
Koji was then moved to RP'er after 1 year as a starter where he had a 4.05 ERA in 12 starts. His K/9 then jumped to the double digits. He was also quite a bit older.
Koji might actually be the best comp since Tanaka seems to rely on a not so great FB that he locates and a nasty splitter. No idea what Koji might have done if he came to the MLB at age of 25, His numbers at age 24 were pretty comparable to Tanaka age 24 season.
Koji
W ▴ L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
20 4 .833 2.09 25 25 0 12 1 0 197.2 153 49 46 12 24 3 179 4 0 3 769 0.895 7.0 0.5 1.1 8.2
Tanaka
24 0 1.000 1.27 28 27 1 8 2 1 212.0 168 35 30 6 32 0 183 3 0 9 822 0.943 7.1 0.3 1.4 7.8
Sampo Gida said:
Not really. Tanaka's K rates in Japan have easily been better than successful MLB pitchers such as Kuroda and Iwakuma. Also, while Tanaka's K/9 was down a bit this year, it's not like he hasn't shown the ability to strike out batters in the past.
Tanaka also has excellent control. Though Matsuzaka and Darvish took large leaps in their final NPB season, Tanaka has shown consistently better control in Japan. Career rates in Japan:
Tanaka: 4.50 SO/BB
Darvish: 3.75 SO/BB
Matsuzaka 2.70 SO/BB
Nomo: 2.05 SO/BB
ForceAtHome said:
Not really. Tanaka's K rates in Japan have easily been better than successful MLB pitchers such as Kuroda and Iwakuma. Also, while Tanaka's K/9 was down a bit this year, it's not like he hasn't shown the ability to strike out batters in the past.
Tanaka also has excellent control. Though Matsuzaka and Darvish took large leaps in their final NPB season, Tanaka has shown consistently better control in Japan. Career rates in Japan:
Tanaka: 4.50 SO/BB
Darvish: 3.75 SO/BB
Matsuzaka 2.70 SO/BB
Nomo: 2.05 SO/BB
When your talking about a guy who has over 1300 IP by age 24 and his k/9 rate declines in 2 straight years, you obviously wonder about the wear and tear on his arm. So yes, Tanaka demonstrated the ability to strike guys out when he was younger, but teams are signing the 25 yo Tanaka.
Kuroda and Iwakuma came over in the 30's and their K/9 in their last year was in Japan line with their career averages accounting for some age related decline in Kurodas case. Neither commanded the kind of payday (salary+posting) that Tanaka, Daisuke or Darvish did.
As for control, Darvish had the same Bb/9 has Tanaka in his last year and it jumped from 1.4 to 4.2 BB/9 in his first year in the MLB. Daisuke went from 1.6 to 3.5 . I am weighting the final years more heavily than the career numbers.
Out of my own curiosity since I hadn't seen it mentioned elsewhere, I wanted to see how Tanaka performed in the World Baseball Classic. With samples so small, pitch restrictions, and such a range in talent, it isn't particularly meaningful. With that said, here's how he performed:
2013 WBC (4 short outings):
7 IP, 2 ER, 10 H, 0 BB, 12 K
The only MLB players he appears to have faced in 2013 by combing box scores were Xander Bogaerts (struck out on three consecutive swings), Che-Hsuan Lin (struck out swinging), and soon-to-be-MLBer Jose Abreu (struck out looking). This, of course, doesn't really tell us anything.
In 2009, Tanaka appeared in 4 games as well, all out of relief:
2.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 5 K
If nothing else, the 17 K/0 BB in 9.1 IP stands out as a plus. I believe this would have been with WBC balls which conform more to MLB standards, too. However, this doesn't tell us much we didn't already know: Tanaka is capable of dominating non-MLB competition.
2013 WBC (4 short outings):
7 IP, 2 ER, 10 H, 0 BB, 12 K
The only MLB players he appears to have faced in 2013 by combing box scores were Xander Bogaerts (struck out on three consecutive swings), Che-Hsuan Lin (struck out swinging), and soon-to-be-MLBer Jose Abreu (struck out looking). This, of course, doesn't really tell us anything.
In 2009, Tanaka appeared in 4 games as well, all out of relief:
2.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 5 K
If nothing else, the 17 K/0 BB in 9.1 IP stands out as a plus. I believe this would have been with WBC balls which conform more to MLB standards, too. However, this doesn't tell us much we didn't already know: Tanaka is capable of dominating non-MLB competition.
FWIW:
JIM BOWDEN @JimBowdenESPNxm 1h
The best MLB comparison for Masahiro Tanaka is Dan Haren circa 2006-2011. Great command and a 70 split
JIM BOWDEN @JimBowdenESPNxm 1h
The best MLB comparison for Masahiro Tanaka is Dan Haren circa 2006-2011. Great command and a 70 split
So how does this work? Does an interested club slap the 20m into some escrow account and in return get Tanaka's cell number? Or does everyone get to talk to his agent and they just pay the posting fee if they manage to sign him?
Let's say this was some marginal guy and the Japanese club sets a Posting fee of 15m .. But Club A only bids 10m .. and Club B bids 11m .. So Club B gets the sole rights to negotiate. This presumes there are two "rounds" or deadlines. A Posting Bid deadline and a window to sign the player. From what I have read the Posting Bid round is now open. But what is the deadline?
Let's say this was some marginal guy and the Japanese club sets a Posting fee of 15m .. But Club A only bids 10m .. and Club B bids 11m .. So Club B gets the sole rights to negotiate. This presumes there are two "rounds" or deadlines. A Posting Bid deadline and a window to sign the player. From what I have read the Posting Bid round is now open. But what is the deadline?
I don't believe there is any bid. You just don't call the agent if you aren't prepared to pony up the set posting fee. That's why it seems dicey for marginal guys.
Reports on the new posting process have been pretty clear that teams have to make a bid before negotiations with the player can take place. And that bid has to be the highest of submitted bids - or is at the stated posting fee. I just can't see how the negotiations can proceed until the eligible teams are sorted out.LeoCarrillo said:
Reports on the new posting process have been pretty clear that teams have to make a bid before negotiations with the player can take place. And that bid has to be the highest of submitted bids - or is at the stated posting fee. I just can't see how the negotiations can proceed until the eligible teams are sorted out.
I don't believe you are correct. Not sure which reports you read.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/mlb-nippon-professional-baseball-agree-on-revised-posting-system?ymd=20131216&content_id=66016648&vkey=news_mlb
I don't believe you are correct. Not sure which reports you read.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/mlb-nippon-professional-baseball-agree-on-revised-posting-system?ymd=20131216&content_id=66016648&vkey=news_mlb
Well, that summary is pretty clear.
{edit: Has Tanaka's release fee been formally established yet?}
- The posting team sets the fee (from $1 - $20,000,000)
- Any team can bid on the player if they agree to the fee.
- There is no benefit or ability to exceed the posted fee. A team cannot underbid the posted fee.
- All clubs that agree to the fee have a 30-day window to negotiate with the player from his date of posting.
{edit: Has Tanaka's release fee been formally established yet?}
Is the assumption that if you don't agree to $20m, you can bid under and so long as you are the highest, they can accept?
Just trying to understand why any Japanese team would ever post a player for less than $20m.
Just trying to understand why any Japanese team would ever post a player for less than $20m.
No. You cannot underbid the posting fee. If a Japanese team posts a player for too high a fee they risk that no MLB team will pay it. There is no "bidding" per se, MLB teams either agree to pay the fee if they sign the player and then negotiate with the player or they don't negotiate.
This article in Japanese says the Braves are reportedly ready to offer him 20mil/year, but doesn't have info on # of years (though they seem to assume it would be at least 6).
Ugh. This next month is going to be a roller-coaster of emotions with reports like this leaking out from time to time. They give us momentary hope, but they don't alter the reality that Tanaka is almost certainly going to the Bronx.soxhop411 said:
The consensus upthread was that the best case scenario is the Yankees paying him a ton (though once they commit to living above the CBT threshold, what difference will those extra dollars make to Red Sox fans?) and him sucking. For reasons I don't fully understand, rooting for a newcomer to suck makes me feel like a bad person. So for me, the best case scenario is Tanaka signing with anyone other than the Yankees, and then being great. Go Braves! (or Dodgers, or Mariners...)
2.1 billion yen annual salary Braves, to Mr. Marr acquisition
Daily Sports 59 minutes delivery (Sun) 6:00 December 29
Masahiro Tanaka, the Braves are aiming to win under the conditions of special
that are preparing a multi-year contract $ 20 million one-year average (about 2.1 billion yen) towards the acquisition of (25) Tanaka Masahiro pitcher Braves aims Major League Transfers using the new Transfer system from Rakuten (the 28th Japan time) on the 27th, I found. According to the officials, the team is named the key players of the world champion to stay away since 1995 Tanaka. chime in as a dark horse in the large battle that the Yankees are the favorite view.
Daily Sports 59 minutes delivery (Sun) 6:00 December 29
Masahiro Tanaka, the Braves are aiming to win under the conditions of special
that are preparing a multi-year contract $ 20 million one-year average (about 2.1 billion yen) towards the acquisition of (25) Tanaka Masahiro pitcher Braves aims Major League Transfers using the new Transfer system from Rakuten (the 28th Japan time) on the 27th, I found. According to the officials, the team is named the key players of the world champion to stay away since 1995 Tanaka. chime in as a dark horse in the large battle that the Yankees are the favorite view.
I never realized that Dice-K walked around 3.6 per nine with the Seibu Lions. While that isn't an excessive amount, it is too high for Japanese baseball where the hitters aren't that good. You would think that a 3.6 walk ratio in Japanese baseball would translate to a higher walk ratio in MLB, which is exactly what happened to Dice-K. In addition, the 3.6 walk ratio in Japanese baseball suggests that Dice-K was not precise or did not have advanced control, something that creates all kinds of problems for a pitcher in MLB.
In contrast, Tanaka walked 1.88 per nine. Tanaka also has a plus-plus pitch with his splitter, which will serve him well in MLB, whereas Dice-K didn't have a plus-plus pitch.
In retrospect, the Dice-K disaster didn't come out of nowhere; instead, it was the result of poor front office decision-making.
I like the Kuroda comparison as well. Tanaka is most likely a young version of Kuroda, which is a pretty valuable commodity. I hope the Yankees don't get him. I don't want to see the Dodgers end up with him either. I would like to see him end up with a team that hasn't won much recently--like the Mariners.
In contrast, Tanaka walked 1.88 per nine. Tanaka also has a plus-plus pitch with his splitter, which will serve him well in MLB, whereas Dice-K didn't have a plus-plus pitch.
In retrospect, the Dice-K disaster didn't come out of nowhere; instead, it was the result of poor front office decision-making.
I like the Kuroda comparison as well. Tanaka is most likely a young version of Kuroda, which is a pretty valuable commodity. I hope the Yankees don't get him. I don't want to see the Dodgers end up with him either. I would like to see him end up with a team that hasn't won much recently--like the Mariners.
Agreed the consensus seems young in his prime Kuroda or Haren with the inevitable risk of having a bajillion miles on his arm. I imagine the front office meetings/valuations about this guy around the league were/are highly entertaining and ranging. The problem is the gap of value between paying for a in his prime number 2 or 1 and instead getting a 3 or 4 backend innings eater is pretty significant and somewhat disconcerting of a risk.
Evidently Tanaka will be unable to reward his Japanese team with a donation under the new agreement. Is this to stop teams from coercing money from players in return for letting them post early?
http://www.latimes.com/sports/sportsnow/la-sp-sn-masahiro-tanaka-dodgers-angels-yankees-20131227,0,7728309.story#axzz2ojcEjfTN
http://www.latimes.com/sports/sportsnow/la-sp-sn-masahiro-tanaka-dodgers-angels-yankees-20131227,0,7728309.story#axzz2ojcEjfTN
Luke Stuckmeyer @LukeStuckmeyer
Japanese pitcher Masahiro Tanaka will meet with the #Cubs &#WhiteSox this week...likely in Chicago.
Japanese pitcher Masahiro Tanaka will meet with the #Cubs &#WhiteSox this week...likely in Chicago.
Wow, so he flies in and it's, what, -5 degrees outside. That should close the deal.soxhop411 said:
Just read the posting fee is spilt over 2 seasons. For Tanaka it will be spilt $13 million this season and $7 million next season.
I was thinking the same thing. Those visits are not going to leave the best impression on him.Rough Carrigan said:
Yaz4Ever said:
Well, considering its also bloody freezing just about everywhere it shouldn't have too much effect - other than making him want to stay in Japan
Dylan Hernandez @dylanohernandez5m
Masahiro Tanaka flew to the U.S. today, according to Japanese media reports. Is expected to start meeting with MLB teams in the coming days.
David Waldstein @DavidWaldstein2m
It has been reported Tanaka will meet with Cubs and ChiSox in coming days. An official for an NL team told me Tanaka is in Chicago now.
Masahiro Tanaka flew to the U.S. today, according to Japanese media reports. Is expected to start meeting with MLB teams in the coming days.
David Waldstein @DavidWaldstein2m
It has been reported Tanaka will meet with Cubs and ChiSox in coming days. An official for an NL team told me Tanaka is in Chicago now.
Fascinating paper here by the Harvard Business School on how MLB teams have marketed Japanese players. Tanaka would pay for himself in NY and most places who have more seats to sell .
http://www.google.com.tw/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CDEQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.hbs.edu%2Ffaculty%2FPages%2Fdownload.aspx%3Fname%3D14-029.pdf&ei=dMfMUom5AYOVkwXbm4EY&usg=AFQjCNE5kiAyH62DxBb1mLpp9YQDK5ji9Q&sig2=-WFhZrpRQV9NlL3aWS45uQ
http://www.google.com.tw/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CDEQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.hbs.edu%2Ffaculty%2FPages%2Fdownload.aspx%3Fname%3D14-029.pdf&ei=dMfMUom5AYOVkwXbm4EY&usg=AFQjCNE5kiAyH62DxBb1mLpp9YQDK5ji9Q&sig2=-WFhZrpRQV9NlL3aWS45uQ
Wow is that incredibly bad writing. They say position players are more valuable and that Matsuzaka didn't produce that much extra income, but it seems like there are ways that some of Tanaka's cost could be offset with endorsements and vacation packages.
Sampo Gida said:
And here I thought that the goal of signing a player was to increase a team's opportunity to win games (which would then, in turn, have the effect of bringing in more money, of course).
BoSox Rule said:
Not merchandise sold in stadium. That goes to the team.
terrisus said:
Yes, wins increase revenue. A+ for you.
snowmanny said:
Not sure you read the whole thing. Matsuzaka was not much of a money maker because the Red Sox were sold out anyways, and he became less popular in Japan when he did not perform well. Nomo was a different story although had the advantage of being the 1st big Japanese star in the US . Obviously, position players are better but they are much rarer to come by.
Ichiro and Kuroda will both likely be gone after 2013, and with it a large Japanese business.
Not every team is located in a city that can maximize the return on the investment
Sampo Gida said:
Which would imply that the initial focus is wins, with revenue being a result of that.
The paper had presented revenue as the initial focus.
terrisus said:
The paper is generally correct. There are a few sports teams that are run as toys for rich owners, mainly in the EPL, but most are businesses first. This isn't to say that the owners don't want to win, but making money is a primary goal and not just an afterthought.
Of course he's listing the Red Sox. They are one of the biggest spenders in baseball and their involvement in the bidding will only drive up his price. It doesn't hurt that they also just won a title. I'm sure Ben will keep the team "involved" until this wraps up, but I'd be really surprised if they ended up being the ones to sign him.
glennhoffmania said:
It's going to be awesome when Loria drops 24 million a year on him, then trades him a week later for laundry cart and some Big League Chew.
Snodgrass'Muff said:
It could also be that he legitimately wants to play here. He'd have a good chance of Winning a World Series and be with multiple fellow countrymen. I get the impression that Boston is a pretty comfortable place for Japanese players. While this is on an admittedly smaller scale, Tazawa took a discount to sign with us. And I don't think Tazawa is all about getting the most money possible if he planned on donating some of his contract to the Golden Eagles so they could build a new stadium.