I'd like to draw your attention to Masahiro Tanaka

[Snodgrass'Muff]

 
It could also be that he legitimately wants to play here. He'd have a good chance of Winning a World Series and be with multiple fellow countrymen. I get the impression that Boston is a pretty comfortable place for Japanese players. While this is on an admittedly smaller scale, Tazawa took a discount to sign with us. And I don't think Tazawa is all about getting the most money possible if he planned on donating some of his contract to the Golden Eagles so they could build a new stadium.

 
He may well be interested in playing in Boston, I just don't think there's any chance he would take enough of a discount to make it worth it to the Sox to sign him.  He's essentially a free agent, so there aren't any mechanisms in place to restrict his value.  He's going to be overpaid and I'd rather not see the Sox be the team that cuts him that check.  That's not to say he won't be a good pitcher, but he's going to be overpaid.

 

[Hoplite]

He may well be interested in playing in Boston, I just don't think there's any chance he would take enough of a discount to make it worth it to the Sox to sign him.  He's essentially a free agent, so there aren't any mechanisms in place to restrict his value.  He's going to be overpaid and I'd rather not see the Sox be the team that cuts him that check.  That's not to say he won't be a good pitcher, but he's going to be overpaid.

 
I find it unlikely, but I wouldn't say there isn't any chance that he takes enough of a discount to make it worth our while. Cherington may or may not see Tanaka as a #3 starter, but I'm sure there's some threshold at which Cherington would be willing to sign him. I think Tanaka's focus on money is a little less than the typical MLB player.

 

[LeoCarrillo]

If the guy makes kissy-face at the Sox, it may be tempting. As Speier just pointed out, the Sox have $96 freakin' million coming off the books for 2015 (and that's assuming Lester's back at $20M and Papi at $15M) and lots of prospects to fill holes cheaply.
 
With the growing disinclination to jump in after MLB free agents (on multi-year deals on the wrong side of 30, etc., etc.), the Sox will have a heap of cash and it's gotta go somewhere, right? Either they deal prospects for an emerging star and extend him ("Pulling a Giancarlo") or I'd guess it'll go to top Japanese or Cuban players.
 
Tanaka probably blows the 189 for this year, but I'm not sure it's such a big deal if they're back under next year. 

 

[jimbobim]

The low end might be a 3 but if the high end comparisons to Haren/Young Kuroda would greatly interest me. The Sox have very few long term commitments and a young pitcher that has far better control than their last Japanese experiment(Dice) would seem to be a good bet. 
 
Also would give the team even more flexibility to trade a Peavy for an upgrade somewhere else on the big league team.   

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

The low end might be a 3 but if the high end comparisons to Haren/Young Kuroda would greatly interest me. The Sox have very few long term commitments and a young pitcher that has far better control than their last Japanese experiment(Dice) would seem to be a good bet. 
 
Also would give the team even more flexibility to trade a Peavy for an upgrade somewhere else on the big league team.   

 
Or to just dump Dempster's contract, which is what I would expect them to do if they can sign him for something reasonable (16-17 million a year?  Can anyone picture him signing for less?).  If they dump 13 million in the form of a Dempster trade and sign Tanaka to a 17 million dollar per year deal, they've increased payroll by 4 million.  They could still find a way to sneak under 189 if they are determined to.

 

[LeoCarrillo]

Kind of an obvious point, but Ben's interest in Tanaka is very much correlated to his bullishness on the stable of pitching prospects. I wish we could take a SoSH collection and pay Ben to rapid-fire his opinion on the ceiling of every pitcher in the upper minors, or if they're bullpen-bound.
 
In other words, does he view Tanaka as a future 1 or 2 or 3? And what about Webster, Ranaudo, Barnes, Owens, Ball, RDLR?
 
If Tanaka's a 2 and so are multiple prospects, he walks away from Tanaka.

 

[jimbobim]

I think if they commit to seriously pursuing Tanaka the minimum expectation would be 20 mill a year. It's very interesting to see how Ben will play this out seeing as he's notoriously quiet before signings. As for the 189 cap I'm pretty sure the real consequences are for repeat offenders so going over one year wouldn't be a total deal breaker. 

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Also an obvious point, but wouldn't any agent seeking a deal from NY want it out there that he's talking to the Red Sox?

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Also an obvious point, but wouldn't any agent seeking a deal from NY want it out there that he's talking to the Red Sox?

 
I'm not sure this is as big a point as it was the last time the Sox won the World Series.  After 2007, George was still alive and calling the shots, so the spending the Yankees did in the next two off seasons was no surprise.  His sons seem a little more restrained (compared to dear old dad, at least) so I'm not sure ribbing them with "We're talking to the Red Sox!" will have as much of an impact as it used to.
 
I would guess that the level of involvement from the Yankees will depend more on the results of the ARod situation than anything else.

 

[Hoplite]

It will be interesting to see what the results of his physical are. That could potentially depress his value.

 

[soxhop411]

Could this bring Tex into the mix again?
 
Anthony Andro ‏@aandro10m
Rangers Derek Holland to miss start of season after suffering left knee injury Tuesday. Return timeline midseason.

 

[Sampo Gida]

What does Tanaka have to gain by leaking out that his preference is to play for LA, NY, Bos?.  The only gain that comes to mind would seem to be to get Seattle and Chicago to come up on their offers. 
 
Dodgers may need to scale down a bit with Kershaw and Hanley extensions looming, NY is still torn by their desire to hit 189, and Boston is also close to 189 and seems to have little interest although I see them as a Dark Horse.  Telling these teams they are his preference does not seem the brightest way to get them to make their best offer.

 

[Reverend]

What does Tanaka have to gain by leaking out that his preference is to play for LA, NY, Bos?.  The only gain that comes to mind would seem to be to get Seattle and Chicago to come up on their offers. 
 
Dodgers may need to scale down a bit with Kershaw and Hanley extensions looming, NY is still torn by their desire to hit 189, and Boston is also close to 189 and seems to have little interest although I see them as a Dark Horse.  Telling these teams they are his preference does not seem the brightest way to get them to make their best offer.

 
That depends upon how much interest the teams on that list have been showing thus far, which we don't know. As has been posted, it could be an attempt to try to convince a couple big money teams who have not shown much interest thus far that they have a chance at him.
 
It's not like most of the teams are in the running anyway.

 

[Nomars Last Twitch]

GM Ben Cherington on WEEI: Boston Red Sox talked to Masahiro Tanaka's agent, meeting possible
http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2014/01/gm_ben_cherington_on_weei_bost.html
 

Japanese pitcher Masahiro Tanaka may meet with the Boston Red Sox during his visit in the United States. (AP Photo)


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By Jason Mastrodonato, MassLive.com
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on January 09, 2014 at 6:43 PM, updated January 10, 2014 at 7:28 AM



 



 




 

 




 



Masahiro Tanaka is reportedly in the United States to meet with major league teams, and the Boston Red Sox could be one of them.
Speaking on WEEI, general manager Ben Cherington said he has been in touch with Casey Close, Tanaka's agent, but he was unsure if the two sides would meet in person.
 
"We'll see how it plays out," Cherington said.
 
Tanaka has until 5 p.m. ET Jan. 24 to have a contract and physical completed with a team.
"Obviously, we’ve done a lot of work on Tanaka, as a lot of teams have, so we’re very comfortable with our evaluation and we’ve had a conversation dialogue with Casey," Cherington said. "That’s about all I want to say at this point. I think we respect Tanaka as a pitcher. He’s obviously very accomplished and not surprisingly there will be a lot of competition for him. This will be an interesting couple weeks that he has to make a decision."
 
The addition of Tanaka could give Boston an elite starting rotation. The Red Sox aren't expected to be front-runners for the 25-year-old right-hander (the New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs and Seattle Mariners are expected to be in the hunt), but they've completed their evaluation of Tanaka and are comfortable with it.
 
Cherington said it doesn't make sense for Tanaka to meet with every team, only the clubs who have significant interest.
"The calendar doesn’t allow for him to meet with every team, nor does the calendar allow for every team to meet with him," Cherington said. "There has to be some sense on both sides that it’s time worth spending. That’s just to be determined. But that’s all I can say at this point really.
 
"We really respect him as a pitcher, his talent, he’s very accomplished obviously and he looks like a guy who is going to be a good major league starter right away. When that kind of pitcher/talent is available, it’s our job to do the work we need to do to get to know him and express a level of interest that makes sense for us. We’ve done that. We’ll see how it goes."

 

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I'm skeptical that there's a team willing to assume even close to all of Dempster's contract, but I guess anything is possible.

 
If the Red Sox are essentially giving him away?  This isn't a Dempster thread, but the dude is a solid back of the rotation option, and would be even more so in a weak division.  Getting any kind of value in return is likely a non-starter, but I'd be shocked if they can't find a team willing to each most of, if not all of the contract if the return is a PTBNL or something.

 

[LeoCarrillo]

 
If the Red Sox are essentially giving him away?  This isn't a Dempster thread, but the dude is a solid back of the rotation option, and would be even more so in a weak division.  Getting any kind of value in return is likely a non-starter, but I'd be shocked if they can't find a team willing to each most of, if not all of the contract if the return is a PTBNL or something.

 
The Dempster market is like pornography: We'll know it when we see it.
 
Like when a team heavily invested in a title run, a Tigers or Dodgers say, have stud pitchers 1-2-3 but their No. 4 suddenly goes to see Dr. Andrews after a few weeks of Spring Training.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

 
The Dempster market is like pornography: We'll know it when we see it.
 
Like when a team heavily invested in a title run, a Tigers or Dodgers say, have stud pitchers 1-2-3 but their No. 4 suddenly goes to see Dr. Andrews after a few weeks of Spring Training.

 
Or the Rangers.
 
http://espn.go.com/dallas/mlb/story/_/id/10276016/freak-knee-accident-knocks-texas-rangers-pitcher-derek-holland-midseason

 

[snowmanny]

I read this as Cherington having actually made an offer, or some semblance of an offer, and now he is waiting to see if Tanaka is interested.

I also read it as the Red Sox aren't going to get in a bidding war, since there is a specific number that makes sense for them.

 

[soxhop411]

steven marcus ‏@newsdaymarcus4h
#TANAKA: Japan Times reports pitcher has returned to Japan from U.S. No update on which MLB team may be in the lead.

 

[soxhop411]

David Waldstein ‏@DavidWaldstein2h
Consensus in Japan right now is that Yankees and Dodgers are favorites on Tanaka and word is his wife prefers to be on West Coast.

 

[soxhop411]

“@CST_soxvan: Industry source suggests Tanaka price tag to hit $140M. Reinsdorf's absence at meeting suggested warm, not hot #whitesox interest”

 

[soxhop411]

Because of that confidentiality, very little is known of the offers in front of Tanaka. One source thinks the Cubs will go as high as $25-26 million per year, and up to seven years. Others think the Cubs have only the New York Yankees to worry about -- and they’re a big concern. A Tanaka signing would immediately change the narrative for the Cubs. 
 
 

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/20956/plan-is-same-as-cubs-await-tanaka-decision
 
that would be insane to give that much

 

[amfox1]

Chris Cotillo ‏@ChrisCotillo12s
Per Nikkan Sports: #Yankees, #Dodgers, #DBacks, #WhiteSox, #Cubs made formal offers to Tanaka. All more than 6 years, $100 million/

 

[mabrowndog]

 
Chris Cotillo ‏@ChrisCotillo12s
Per Nikkan Sports: #Yankees, #Dodgers, #DBacks, #WhiteSox, #Cubs made formal offers to Tanaka. All more than 6 years, $100 million/
 

 
According to MLBTR, Nikkan also reports the Diamondbacks' offer is 6/$120M.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

I really hope the Yankees don't end up with Tanaka.  Not only does Tanaka's splitter look pretty nasty, but his control in Japan was much better than Dice-K's and so I think Tanaka will be a significantly better SP.  In addition, if the Yankees don't get Tanaka, they will probably be forced to sign a QO starting pitcher in free agency next season--Lester, Masterson, Bailey, or Scherzer--and this will take another first round pick away from the Yankees.  The Yankees are going to get nothing out of the amateur draft in 2014, and the same could happen in 2015 as well.
 
Yeah, Tanaka does make sense for the Cubs on several levels.  They will probably have to overpay to get him, but they might be willing to do that. . . .

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

Seeing the White Sox in there is a bit of a surprise after they gave $68 million to Jose Abreu. They are taking a bit of a risk here making this big of an investment on international free agents in one offseason.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I really hope the Yankees don't end up with Tanaka.  Not only does Tanaka's splitter look pretty nasty, but his control in Japan was much better than Dice-K's and so I think Tanaka will be a significantly better SP.  In addition, if the Yankees don't get Tanaka, they will probably be forced to sign a QO starting pitcher in free agency next season--Lester, Masterson, Bailey, or Scherzer--and this will take another first round pick away from the Yankees.  The Yankees are going to get nothing out of the amateur draft in 2014, and the same could happen in 2015 as well.
 
Yeah, Tanaka does make sense for the Cubs on several levels.  They will probably have to overpay to get him, but they might be willing to do that. . . .

 
I think there's a very good chance both Lester and Masterson will be extended.  Masterson and the Indians have both stated they are open to an extension and are apparently discussing it already.
 
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/12/28/indians-justin-masterson-both-receptive-to-contract-extension/
 
And there is plenty of talk about the Sox extending Lester and why it would be a good idea.
 
Also, regarding the White Sox taking risks, I think this is exactly what they should be doing.  Taking chances on players who only cost money to preserve as many draft assets as possible is probably the quickest path to getting back on top of the AL Central.  If Tanaka and Abreu pan out, they are probably back in the playoff hunt this season, though that'st he absolute best case scenario, and we're talking Wild Card berth here..  Between Ramirez, De Aza, Garcia, Abreu, Dunn, Eaton, Konerko, and Viciedo, they can put together a competitive lineup.  And a rotation built around Sale, Quintana and a Tanaka who succeeds is a solid foundation.
 
These moves may not pan out, but if the White Sox are going to turn it around quickly, this is how they will do it.

 

[Orel Miraculous]

Great little piece from Badler here with scouts' takes on Tanaka's pitches. I'll just post the gifs:
 
Splitter:

 
Slider:

 
Fastball (97 MPH):

 

[kelpapa]

I thought it was just the poor quality in the gifs that made the slider and splitter look like the same pitch. The linked article says scouts have "troubles telling them apart" at times.

 

[rembrat]

That's a Major League Fistpump. Jobaesque, even.

 

[nattysez]

FWIW, this from a Cubs blogger with good sources.
 

Hearing it is down to #Yankees and #Cubs for Tanaka derby.
 

 
https://twitter.com/TomLoxas/status/425336944038395904
 
 
This rumor makes sense to me, as both teams desperately need Tanaka.  I've got to think the Cubs will be required to pay a premium to get him.

 

[cromulence]

From Bruce Levine's Twitter:
 
"Industry sources believe the Cubs will outbid the field on money and years. None of the clubs know other teams bids."
 
Seems weird that no one knows other bids. You'd think if the Cubs really did offer something insane like 7/175 that Close would want to tell the Yankees what they're dealing with and try to get a bigger offer from them. There aren't any rules against that due to the posting process are there? I thought this was basically free agency with a fee to sit at the table.

 

[NDame616]

From Bruce Levine's Twitter:
 
"Industry sources believe the Cubs will outbid the field on money and years. None of the clubs know other teams bids."
 
Seems weird that no one knows other bids. You'd think if the Cubs really did offer something insane like 7/175 that Close would want to tell the Yankees what they're dealing with and try to get a bigger offer from them. There aren't any rules against that due to the posting process are there? I thought this was basically free agency with a fee to sit at the table.

 
Isn't knowing the other teams bids not an issue with the new posting system? All the teams who are competitive with their offers offered the max bid, so it'll only come down to Tanaka choosing what team he wants. This isn't like Dice K with him going to the highest bidder, THEN them trying to agree on a deal

 

[rembrat]

I think Mr. Bruce Levine is confused. Everyone knows what the bids are but no one knows what the contract offers are.... yet. That's normal in any FA deal unless the player makes his demands known ahead of time like Cano or someone (agent) leaks a team's offer.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I'd love to see him end up on the Cubs.  Tanaka, Wood, Jackson and Samardzija is already a solid first four in a rotation.  Edwards and Johnson are the only two pitchers on the farm worth talking about, but both are starting the year in AA and it will be the first time at that level for both, so neither is going to be ready all that soon.  Baez could crack the major league roster by the end of the 2014 season but Bryant is at least a full season away.  Jorge Soler could be on the fast track if he's finally healthy, but he probably won't beat Baez to Chicago.  Even still, that's three really exciting names that should be hitting Wrigley by mid 2015 or so.
 
Add them to Castro, Barney and Rizzo and that's one hell of a young core of players to build around.  The Cubs could turn it around really quickly, and Tanaka would be a huge part of that.

 

[jimbobim]

On one hand I really want the Red Sox to steal Tanaka and  invest long term in the rotation. 
 
On the other hand its difficult to see how the Yankees won't be the highest bidder no matter what Theo is leaking to the Chitown Press. 

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

I wouldn't want to be a piece of hotel room furniture right now.

 

[nvalvo]

On one hand I really want the Red Sox to steal Tanaka and  invest long term in the rotation. 
 
On the other hand its difficult to see how the Yankees won't be the highest bidder no matter what Theo is leaking to the Chitown Press. 

 
You've posted a couple of things that make it seem like you're not aware that the identities of the five teams that have submitted bids are known. 
 
The Red Sox are not one of them. LAD, NY, CHI, CHI, and ARI.

 

[soxhop411]

RT“@ChrisCotillo: One agent believes that there's a mystery team to watch on Tanaka: #Mariners.”
Details

 

[SydneySox]

Purely out of interest but Sydney is swarming with MLB types atm, including those from the dodgers and dbacks, ahead of the upcoming season opener.

Everyone involved is salivating at the thought of Tanaka with the Dodgers (or Arizona but really?) and the ridiculous media scrum that will follow, not least the huuuuuuge boost in Japanese tourism!

 

[Sampo Gida]

 
You've posted a couple of things that make it seem like you're not aware that the identities of the five teams that have submitted bids are known. 
 
The Red Sox are not one of them. LAD, NY, CHI, CHI, and ARI.

 
The official deadline to have a done deal is not until the 25th,  so presumably any team could still make an offer now that could be considered even if it is later than Closes own deadline. At least it should be considered until Tanaka accepts another teams offer (which seems will be by the 22rd).   Obviously such a late offer would have to blow away the other teams who submitted on time to have a chance.
 
Doubtful the Red Sox would do this though since their need is not great enough to overpay by much.

 

[MakMan44]

I'd love to see him end up on the Cubs.  Tanaka, Wood, Jackson and Samardzija is already a solid first four in a rotation.  Edwards and Johnson are the only two pitchers on the farm worth talking about, but both are starting the year in AA and it will be the first time at that level for both, so neither is going to be ready all that soon.  Baez could crack the major league roster by the end of the 2014 season but Bryant is at least a full season away.  Jorge Soler could be on the fast track if he's finally healthy, but he probably won't beat Baez to Chicago.  Even still, that's three really exciting names that should be hitting Wrigley by mid 2015 or so.
 
Add them to Castro, Barney and Rizzo and that's one hell of a young core of players to build around.  The Cubs could turn it around really quickly, and Tanaka would be a huge part of that.

The Yankees and Cubs are heading in very different directions IMO (and I'd assume yours) Hopefully Tanaka's agent explains to him why the Cubs are probably his best choice, especially considering they seem to be very willing to pay whatever it takes to get him. 

 

[Sampo Gida]

Purely out of interest but Sydney is swarming with MLB types atm, including those from the dodgers and dbacks, ahead of the upcoming season opener.

Everyone involved is salivating at the thought of Tanaka with the Dodgers (or Arizona but really?) and the ridiculous media scrum that will follow, not least the huuuuuuge boost in Japanese tourism!

 
What are the odds the Dodgers start Tanaka though.  I am pretty sure they would want him at his best for his first MLB start and having him fly 16 hrs to do that seems unwise.
 
My money is on him starting their home opener against the Giants, or perhaps the next day.  Of course, that assumes he signs with the Dodgers.

 

[VORP Speed]

Since we know the guy is signing a contract this week, shouldn't we do a poll or prediction contest or something?

If they're seriously in on him, which it sounds like they are, I don't see how LA doesn't get their man. I don't think the Cubs can overpay enough to convince a Japanese guy to commit long term to being in Chicago with a team that's been crap for ages.

Put me down for the Dodgers at 8/175.

 

[Sampo Gida]

Since we know the guy is signing a contract this week, shouldn't we do a poll or prediction contest or something?

If they're seriously in on him, which it sounds like they are, I don't see how LA doesn't get their man. I don't think the Cubs can overpay enough to convince a Japanese guy to commit long term to being in Chicago with a team that's been crap for ages.

Put me down for the Dodgers at 8/175.

 
I think you are right on the Cubs.  The Yankees need him more than LA but would need to better LA's offer by a significant margin I think.  I think they can afford to outbid LA..  Just doubt the will to do so.  Have to imagine Close is giving teams a chance to top their initial bid.   I think the winner goes 10 yrs and 180 with a 6 yr opt out and the contract front loaded (20 million per year through 6, 15 a year the last 4 if he does not optout)

 

[SydneySox]

 
What are the odds the Dodgers start Tanaka though.  I am pretty sure they would want him at his best for his first MLB start and having him fly 16 hrs to do that seems unwise.
 
My money is on him starting their home opener against the Giants, or perhaps the next day.  Of course, that assumes he signs with the Dodgers.

 
There are a lot of things in place that require these teams to bring their full squad down here, and they're each playing 3 games (1 against Team Australia). Of course, anything could change. I would love to personally see Kershaw and Tanaka pitch.

 

[snowmanny]

 
I think you are right on the Cubs.  The Yankees need him more than LA but would need to better
LA's offer by a significant margin I think.  I think they can afford to outbid LA..  Just doubt the will to do so.  Have to imagine Close is giving teams a chance to top their initial bid.   I think the
winner goes 10 yrs and 180 with a 6 yr opt out and the contract front loaded (20 million per year through 6, 15 a year the last 4 if he does not optout)

The Yankees can outbid anyone, sure. But so can the Dodgers, and so can the Cubs. And so could the Astros, I would think. As you've pointed out, the economics of this signing are unusual. And there is a lot of money floating around baseball and a lot of teams making a lot of money that they're not particularly spending.

In a way, a team deciding they need to make a huge splash might be more motivated than a team signing him for more or less baseball
reasons.

 

[jon abbey]

D'backs are out on Tanaka according to their mlb.com writer:
 
https://twitter.com/SteveGilbertMLB

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

@Ken_Rosenthal: BREAKING: Tanaka to #Yankees, seven years, $155M, opt-out after fourth year.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

I want to cry.