I think the Red Sox have determined that extra draft picks through QO's are the current market inequity of which they can take advantage. I think "pillow contracts" may be something they plan to use for at least a couple years before the rest of the market catches up. It worked splendidly with Drew and Napoli and Beltre (same concept pre QO era). It might work with Peavy this year.
What free agents could we possibly get for reasonable, short money deals that could turn into QO draft picks in the next few years. I didn't exhaustively research this, but Corey Hart seems like a no brainer. His three year averages (from '10-'12) were 141 GP, 31 2B, 29 HR, .343 OBP and .514 SLG, good for 127 OPS+. He played RF and 1B badly, but not catastrophically. He only has played 105 games at 1B, so seems like he could learn to play much better than he has in the past.
If this was the off season before '13 and Hart wasn't injured, he would have absolutely been getting a nice hefty contract that earned his previous team a QO draft pick. However, because he missed all of '13, he could probably be had for a nice low pillow contract for one year. We can plug him in at 1B starter and backup RF and keep Carp in his current role. I am as high on Carp's performance this past year as most, but Hart will give us insurance for the outfield as well as DH and 1B.
Because of the low risk contract that Hart will command this offseason, he is low in risk, but extremely high in potential upside. If we can get 50 XBH and a .330 OBP out of him during his pillow year, he will have been worth it due to how he helped the team. If we get his production from his last three healthy years, ~ 60 XBH and .343 OBP, he will net a draft pick through the QO. If he is only slightly above replacement, he will be part of our deep depth and could have his moments, and he won't block us going forward. If he is below replacement, the Sox can dump him at little risk.
My current number one wish for this offseason is Napoli's QO draft pick and Corey Hart on a 1/12 type contract. A dramatic one year overpay, but not at crazy as many would think considering what Young just got. Hart's average year his last 3 he has played was 3.1 bWAR, which is worth at least a QO on the open market.
RH Victorino R
2B Pedroia R
DH Ortiz L
1B Hart R
LF Nava/Gomes S
SS Bogaerts R
3B Middlebrooks R
C Ross/Lavarnway R
CF Bradley L
Bench:
Carp
Gomes
Lavarway
Holt?
I worry only about the lack of Lefty hitters, but Carp and Nava help that a lot and potentially Victorino learning how to switch hit will help as well. But the massive upside of Hart, Middlebrooks, Bogaerts and Bradley make this a lineup I wouldn't mind seeing in a "bridge year."
LHS Lester
RHS Buchholz
RHS Lackey
LHS Doubront
RHS Peavy
RHR Uehara
LHR Breslow
RHR Tazawa
RHR Badenhop
LHR Moralez
LHR Miller
RHR Workman
Dempster for a prospect to save a little cash and take advantage of our pitching depth and go to war.