I for one would like to hear how he hasn't gotten on base 35.9% of the time in his career.opes said:
Sorry, is that too binkie-ish for some? Should I talk about Mark Trumbo, is that better?
Hot Stove Rumors - The Fenway Edition
- Thread starter absintheofmalaise
- Start date
Sorry, is that too binkie-ish for some? Should I talk about Mark Trumbo, is that better?
Yeah, I'm actually coming around on Hanigan. He looks like a very good defensive catcher, with recent articles on OTM and River Ave Blues outlining his 40% CS rate plus good blocking and pitch framing skills. Add in a guy with good OBP/pitch recognition and low K%, there's a lot to like, especially at 1 year <$3M. A good bridge option to our prospects. I really like the idea of preventing the Rays running game and forcing them to get actual hits in order to score. I'd still take Salty back on a reasonable deal, but 4 years? $10M plus per? I'm ok with passing.
As for the contract too long... could be Ellsbury. Could be Napoli. Could be Kemp. Could be deliberate obfuscation. Who knows?
As for the contract too long... could be Ellsbury. Could be Napoli. Could be Kemp. Could be deliberate obfuscation. Who knows?
I think all of those statements keep the idea open that years to a Kemp/Ellsbury/Choo aren't impossible, as long as it fits into our big picture.
I'm a big David Ross fan, and expected him to get more than 50% of our at-bats until his brain scrambling. That means I'm open to a RHB compliment to him if the Salty deal doesn't fit. But given Ross's age and downward trend in innings and offense, he is better suited to the 60 game portion of a 60/100 split and probably can also be valuable as the 40 game portion of a 40/120 split.
I don't think we will find a better fit than Salty, and I think his value increases even more if a healthy Ross can keep him from ever facing a LHP. I think he is less replaceable for those 120 games than Napoli or even Ellsbury, and with him being in his prime years, improving defensively, and potentially having future value at DH/1B when not catching (if his contract goes beyond Ortiz's retirement), I really want to see him back despite his shortcomings, and even if the years and dollars are a little more than we hoped at the outset. I like our young catching as an eventual replacement for the Ross part of our platoon, and don't mind seeing a 32 year old Salty playing out the end of a slightly above value contract.
Drew signs elsewhere = WMB/Xander, probably no loss in value
Napoli signs elsewhere = more Carp/Nava, and signing a Hart or other RHB to compliment the lefties
Ellsbury signs elsewhere = JBJ or Beltran, etc. Loss of value, but saving a huge and long contract
Salty signs elsewhere = We are significantly worse especially against RHP, and have a tough time making up for that on the current market, with our young guys not really ready to step in.
Negotiate hard, but I don't see how we avoid taking a significant hit to our winning without keeping Salty or pulling off a surprise trade. I'm open to creativity, but right now think a slight overpay of Salty might be our most important deal. Again all this from someone who usually values catching defense a lot and was supporting Ross being #1 ahead of Salty prior to the concussion, but I have a tough time seeing us as strong a team with a Hanigan type deal.
I'm a big David Ross fan, and expected him to get more than 50% of our at-bats until his brain scrambling. That means I'm open to a RHB compliment to him if the Salty deal doesn't fit. But given Ross's age and downward trend in innings and offense, he is better suited to the 60 game portion of a 60/100 split and probably can also be valuable as the 40 game portion of a 40/120 split.
I don't think we will find a better fit than Salty, and I think his value increases even more if a healthy Ross can keep him from ever facing a LHP. I think he is less replaceable for those 120 games than Napoli or even Ellsbury, and with him being in his prime years, improving defensively, and potentially having future value at DH/1B when not catching (if his contract goes beyond Ortiz's retirement), I really want to see him back despite his shortcomings, and even if the years and dollars are a little more than we hoped at the outset. I like our young catching as an eventual replacement for the Ross part of our platoon, and don't mind seeing a 32 year old Salty playing out the end of a slightly above value contract.
Drew signs elsewhere = WMB/Xander, probably no loss in value
Napoli signs elsewhere = more Carp/Nava, and signing a Hart or other RHB to compliment the lefties
Ellsbury signs elsewhere = JBJ or Beltran, etc. Loss of value, but saving a huge and long contract
Salty signs elsewhere = We are significantly worse especially against RHP, and have a tough time making up for that on the current market, with our young guys not really ready to step in.
Negotiate hard, but I don't see how we avoid taking a significant hit to our winning without keeping Salty or pulling off a surprise trade. I'm open to creativity, but right now think a slight overpay of Salty might be our most important deal. Again all this from someone who usually values catching defense a lot and was supporting Ross being #1 ahead of Salty prior to the concussion, but I have a tough time seeing us as strong a team with a Hanigan type deal.
Hanigan's struggles in 2013 looks to be mostly related to is BBIP%:
2013 - .215
2012 - .303
2011 - .277
It seems reasonable to think that he could bounce back to at .260-270 BBIP% at the very least.
2013 - .215
2012 - .303
2011 - .277
It seems reasonable to think that he could bounce back to at .260-270 BBIP% at the very least.
If they are saving money in center (JE to JBJ) and short (SD to XB), then putting some of it at catcher would seem logical. I agree with Koufax that the options outside of Salty are thin. We know they don't want to go beyond 2 years, and almost definitely won't go beyond 3. So ratchet up the AAV for a 2 or 3 year deal to him and make that your best offer. 2 for $26M or 3 for $36M. The AAV increase there is basically SDrew's contract.
Ananti said:
At this point, doesn't it appear that failing to make him a QO was a mistake? Is there anyone who wouldn't want Salty back at one year/$14M? If Salty would not take that, the Sox would be getting another pick.
SaveBooFerriss said:
Exactly. I agree that failing to offer a QO was a mistake. Most of us would gladly have him back on a one year deal like that.
Exactly. I agree that failing to offer a QO was a mistake. Most of us would gladly have him back on a one year deal like that.
Ben's mindset must have been on making a major play for McCann.
It doesn't make much sense otherwise, with Vasquez's ETA next season.
Ben's mindset must have been on making a major play for McCann.
It doesn't make much sense otherwise, with Vasquez's ETA next season.
What the fuck? Those three numbers there tell you the exact rate at which he gets on base. There's nothing subjective about it.opes said:
SaveBooFerriss said:
I wonder if he'd take an offer like that now. He'd still hit the market at only 29 and if he puts up a second season like this past one, would be in line for a bigger contract than he's looking at now.BosRedSox5 said:
I wonder if he'd take an offer like that now. He'd still hit the market at only 29 and if he puts up a second season like this past one, would be in line for a bigger contract than he's looking at now.
Way to think back inside the box. Love that idea. Exactly the QO for one year.
As someone posted, not much at C for FAs next year.
Way to think back inside the box. Love that idea. Exactly the QO for one year.
As someone posted, not much at C for FAs next year.
You do realize that prior to this past season where he posted a impossibly bad BABIP, that Hanigan posted a .360 OBP and was worth 4.3 WAR in 675 Plate Appearances between 2011 and 2012? But yeah we should not consider him as an option and enter the season with a 37 year old career backup who has a recent history concussions and noticeable platoon splits and a guy who every scouting report ever has stated is a below average receiver, blocker, and thrower and who also seems to have all but lost the power that initially made him an intriguing prospect three years ago.opes said:
Well, I was thinking a little lower on the salary, not that it matters much. Regardless, doesn't seem like the Sox are all the interested in giving in and giving him a third year, might be easier to just give him a large one year deal and reassess after 2014.LeoCarrillo said:
Where are you getting your WAR numbers from? According to baseball reference Hanigan had 631 PA in the last two years and a 1.5 WAR for that time. OBP is a great stat, Hanigan is a patient hitter... but it's not the be all end all. Hanigan is just not very good.
BosRedSox5 said:
His bref War was 3.4, not 1.5, in the 675 ABs from 2011-12. (Fangraphs, as noted by MM44, is higher -- 4.5.)
MakMan44 said:
The Reds could cut bait with Devin Mesoraco, who should have considerably more trade value than Hanigan does.
Alternatively, if the Reds are planning to trade Hanigan, why the switch? Brayan Pena is a below-average catcher with almost no upside. The Reds started the year with Ryan Hanigan as their starter and only promoted Mesoraco to the job when Hanigan started getting injured. So I don't think this is a case of an organization undervaluing their own assets (unless that asset in Mesoraco in scenario #1). There's more here than meets the eye.
And if you look more closely at those numbers you will see that in 2012 his offensive number, which combines batting and base running, was -5.1. His defensive numbers, which combine fielding and the positional adjustment, was 18.4. For 2011, they were .9 and 6.9 respectively. The positional adjustment for catchers is +12.5 runs. Here is some info on how they figure out defense for catchers.sdiaz1 said:
If you look at just offense and defense for Hanigan in 2012 you will see that he was -5.4 and +10.9. Of course all of the numbers you used were for a little more than one combined season and aren't reliable since they need to be regressed heavily. Out of curiosity, why didn't you add in his 2013 numbers? In 75 games he was -13.8 batting and + 1.3 on just offense and defense. Not to mention his other partial seasons. If you're going to quote numbers, use all of them please. The more info we have, the better the discussion will be.
There is this thread in MLB on assigning blame for steals. I think it's pertinent to the discussion on catcher defense since FG uses SB and CS, in addition to pitch blocking, for catcher UZR.
I love his OBP skills. No clue on his defense since I haven't seen him play.
Well, I think they're betting on Mesoraco taking a step forward next season. He's coming off a pretty awful year and his trade value is actually probably lower than Hanigan's at this point.Devizier said:
At least with Hanigan you have his career numbers to point to and they can always just say this year was a fluke caused by injuries.
Pena was just signed coming off a career year. It's probably not the smartest move the Reds have ever made but they now have their back up catcher in line for the next two seasons at a very low salary.
Because you can get him from the Reds real cheap, he's likely going to be a solid OBP guy, he's a strong defensive catcher, and he's making a small enough salary that if they go into ST and prefer what they see out of Lavarnway/Butler they can flip Hanigan to someone else or outright release him with little lost. I mean, Franklin Morales is a pretty reasonable trade offer for the guy. If Miller and Breslow are both healthy coming out of camp Franklin Morales doesn't have a job on the 2014 Red Sox, and that's even assuming they just stash Britton back in the minors.opes said:
Hanigan is a good extra competitor for the catching workload. Personally I'd be just fine with rolling with Lavarnway/Ross and letting Butler try to knock Lavarnway off in spring training, but adding an extra low cost, solid player to the mix wouldn't hurt. Same view I'd have with Kurt Suzuki if he'd take a non-guaranteed deal with an ST invite.
I don't think it's very likely that the FO misread McCann's market so massively that they thought he'd sign for much less than the 5/$85M plus 6th year option that he ended up taking. If they really wanted to get him you'd think there would have been a lot more smoke coming from that fire.LeoCarrillo said:
It's pretty clear they think Salty is worth substantially less than $14M, otherwise they'd have at least thrown it out there for the pick. The fact that they didn't means they were significantly concerned about him accepting to not even be tempted by the draft pick and having him back for another bridge year.
Either the FO actually really likes Lavarnway more than they've let on or they really do not like Salty's game for some reason.
Cellar-Door said:
Ah yes, the old David Jonathan Drew Gambit, well done.
Seriously though, we must have done the Scrub-OBP-BABIP-Scrub cycle with Hanigan like fifty times in the past couple of weeks. Fun every time.
The fact that they benched him for the last three games of the World Series is very strong evidence for the latter. $14 Million is a lot, even for one year, for a catcher you don't really trust.Drek717 said:
That being said, I wonder if they would have more strongly considered the QO if they had been sure Drew was going to decline his.
sdiaz1 said:
Lavarnway? I am under the impression that he has improved his defense to the point that he is considered an average to good defensive catcher.
How low do we think the Red Sox must be pegging Salty's value on a 1 year deal to have not made the QO? Is it $10 million? $8 million? I had been wondering if Salty would take a 1 year deal if he's confident in himself and not getting any break the bank offers. But it really seems like the Sox value him no higher than $10 million, perhaps substantially less.
Right, and that means they probably don't want him back at a 1 year, $13 million deal either, because that would be worth the gamble for the draft pick if he signs elsewhere. Would they have made a QO at $12 million? That's what I'm trying to figure out.Rudy Pemberton said:
I don't think he'll take a 1 year deal now. Why would he? He's the premier catcher on the table at this point, and If the Red Sox still want him it's probably a 3/36 or 4/48 (maybe a little in between on $). Just a market guess...then again if MIN is involved, maybe we have a shot....Plympton91 said:
Burgmeier In LF said:
There is not a chance the RS want him with a 4 yr deal at anything close to 48.
If he gets a 4/48, he is definitely gone.
At this point, I think the RS are hoping for 2/24, which puts the 2nd yr at an under-market 10 if they had offered a QO. However, I doubt 2 yrs is going it done in this market. I do agree that Burgs in LF projection of 3/36 is probably what is going to be needed. Personally I don't believe 3/36 is a crippling contract -- basically 1 extra year at 12.
I am sure if a QO was made, it would have been accepted since the loss of a draft pick for the signing team would have significantly impacted the market for Salty.
In my lifetime said:
I think you are wildly overestimating the value the FO puts on Salty. If they valued him at $24M/2 they almost certainly would've made the QO since the overpayment would've been fairly slight and balanced by 1) the short term commitment, and 2) would've been counterbalanced by the potential draft pick compensation. The fact that they didn't make a QO not only points to them valuing him at significantly less (my guess is that they see him as a $6-8M/ yr player), but also that they don't think anyone else values him that highly either, so they couldn't expect another team to give up their top pick and overbid the Sox.
I agree across the board, though one added wrinkle they had to factor in is how other team's would value him with and without a QO attached.OCD SS said:
Salty strikes me as exactly the kind of guy who's market would have been outright torpedoed with a QO, to such an extent that the Red Sox were genuinely concerned he'd accept. Otherwise you throw it out there, he's got to decline very early in the off-season, then the pick is assured but the QO is also off the table. The fact that they weren't even willing to risk it suggests that at least with the QO attached, they felt he'd do substantially worse than the QO in terms of AAV, so much so that accepting would have been in his best interests.
I think the $6-$8M/yr. player figure is about right for their assessment, though I have the feeling some team will give him $10M or better thanks largely to his age and offensive upside. He'll also likely get 3+ years, again thanks to his age. The market for him hasn't been exactly hot however, when the Twins are the most often mentioned interested party.
Drek717 said:
In a world where Ruiz got $9m and Mccann got $17m how is Salty worth only $6-8m? I think a lot of us (me included) really underestimated the amount of money that will be spent this offseason and the value that teams are putting on a win.
Using baseline projections, Ruiz projects to be a better player next year. So, sure - Salty is worth less. Its perfectly reasonable to think that Ruiz is not going to be better than Salty next year - but the default should be that is will be. So, its pretty reasonable to assume that Salty should be worth less.glennhoffmania said:
Salty doesn't have a history that inspires confidence. He basically has a career of being a 90-95 OPS+, poor defensive catcher, with his OPS slugging heavy. I don't think most teams will expect a 100-115 OPS+ with adequate defense - though someone may. Whoever does will agree that Salty is worth more than 6-8mm. The Red Sox are indicating that they view him as a below average player overall, and that seems pretty reasonable.
I thought the point was that in the NL he bats in front of the pitcher, so they put him on b/c there's no risk of him advancing. I could be wrong, though.Cellar-Door said:
Are there many guys batting 8th in the NL with an OBP in the .360 range? In 2013 there were 15 hitters in the NL who had an OBP of .360 or more, including all of the usual suspects. There wasn't a single name there that made me go "huh". I could swear I read an article somewhere that said that Hanigan's OBP also went up when he hit 7th, but I can't find it for the life of me.InsideTheParker said:
rodderick said:
Hanigan only had 12 PAs in the 7th spot in 2013. His OBP was .500, but that's almost pointless to mention since the PAs are so small.
Career-wise, yes, his OBP goes up in the 7th spot, 400 OBP there compared to 349 in the 8th spot. But again there's a vast difference in PAs: 302 in the 7th, 1113 in the 8th.
rodderick said:
If so, there must be some hellaciously bad OBPs to offset them, since the average NL OBP for #8 hitters this year was .302.
With Ross and Lavarnway already on the roster, Kottaras seemed like a far more logical fit than Hanigan if the Sox were comfortable with a cheap defense-minded platoon at C. That they couldn't beat Theo's offer of "cash considerations" to the Royals suggests they're not considering that route.
Unless there's a weird trade (Webster and a C prospect for Jason Castro?), think it's gotta be Salty or Pierzynski at this point, and Pierzynski is a bad fit.
Unless there's a weird trade (Webster and a C prospect for Jason Castro?), think it's gotta be Salty or Pierzynski at this point, and Pierzynski is a bad fit.
Well, to fulfill that wish here's an interesting bit of news from Gammons:Yaz4Ever said:
He hasn't played any legitimate SS time since 2008, and I'd assume a backup infielder would need that criteria on his resume. But as far as backup infielders go, he's got a pretty respectable bat and the team was supposed to have been interested last deadline.
I don't see how Michael Young is a fit. He really can't play SS or 2B anymore, so backup/UI isn't really something he can do. I suppose he could be part of a 1B platoon with Carp and/or be WMB insurance, but he really doesn't show a platoon split.
Plus he's a RH hitter, which isn't highly complementary except re Carp/1B.MoGator71 said:
About the only argument for this is that so many free agents are named Young that the odds are in favor of one of them signing with the Sox.