Hot Stove Rumors - The Fenway Edition

[rodderick]

 
The number of 2013 Red Sox position players who matched Cruz' 2013 slugging of 506 or even his lifetime slugging of 495 is zero.
 
27 OFers in mlb had OBPs over 330 in 2013, or about 1 per team.
 
I wish we wouldn't say people "suck" when what you mean is "not as good as we need/as I'd like".  SOSHland is sometimes the reverse Lake Wobegon, where 2/3 of the players are below average.

Nelson Cruz is a terrible right fielder who doesn't get on base and hasn't been worth two wins since 2010. He was also suspended for PED use. I don't see why saying he kind of sucks is an exaggeration.

Either way, the disagreement is over paying a guy like that 60 million dollars. He isn't worth that, period. Whether the term "sucks" is applicable to a player of that caliber is purely incidental to the conversation. If the response had been "on the other hand, you'd be paying 60 million to a mediocre at best baseball player", would that make you happier? Just consider the amount of people who were unhappy with giving Victorino 3/39, and even at his worst, he had been far more valuable than Cruz has in recent years. 

 

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Nelson Cruz is a terrible right fielder who doesn't get on base and hasn't been worth two wins since 2010. He was also suspended for PED use. I don't see why saying he kind of sucks is an exaggeration.

 
A .330 OBP is above average, and has been for several years now, so saying Cruz "doesn't get on base" is kind of proving ji oh's point about Lake Wobegon in reverse.
 
Agreed, though, that he'd have to be either a better fielder or a more dominant offensive player to make 4/60 reasonable, especially at his age. You don't have to suck to not be worth that much.

 

[rodderick]

 
A .330 OBP is above average, and has been for several years now, so saying Cruz "doesn't get on base" is kind of proving ji oh's point about Lake Wobegon in reverse.
 
Agreed, though, that he'd have to be either a better fielder or a more dominant offensive player to make 4/60 reasonable, especially at his age. You don't have to suck to not be worth that much.

 
His career OBP is .327 and his 2011-2013 average is about .320. I used .330 merely as a reference point to indicate that since 2010 his offensive production has decreased. Maybe "doesn't get on base" was too strong, but I don't think it's too far from the truth as of late. 

 

[pdub]

I can feel what Rodderick is saying. I also wouldn't commit $60M to the guy given that he's a defensive butcher and is only decent at getting on base. I'd say overall he's definitely above average in all respects except defense, and that makes me wonder how many runs we'd end up losing based on that. 
 
If don't re-sign Ellsbury then I'd look into Corey Hart on a 1-year deal. At least we know the commitment will be low and he definitely has something to prove. I've also seen his name thrown as a 1B alternative to Napoli, which I am fine with. 

 

[TomRicardo]

How the hell did Nelson Cruz start getting thrown around as an idea 60/4?
 
This is coming from the same people who wanted to commit hari kari after Victorino got 39/3?
 
Nelson Cruz is not a 14 million dollar improvement over Daniel Nava, roided or Not.

 

[The Best Catch in 100 Years]

I can feel what Rodderick is saying. I also wouldn't commit $60M to the guy given that he's a defensive butcher and is only decent at getting on base. I'd say overall he's definitely above average in all respects except defense, and that makes me wonder how many runs we'd end up losing based on that. 
 
If don't re-sign Ellsbury then I'd look into Corey Hart on a 1-year deal. At least we know the commitment will be low and he definitely has something to prove. I've also seen his name thrown as a 1B alternative to Napoli, which I am fine with. 

Do we know the commitment will be low? I know the injury will drive down the price, but a lot of teams are in on him (Brewers, Rays, Rockies, Red Sox) and it's a good time to be a free agent first baseman.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Re: Cruz...  We all can be seduced by power.  And it has its place and value, of course, but not at that price and not for that player.

 

[MakMan44]

How the hell did Nelson Cruz start getting thrown around as an idea 60/4?
 
This is coming from the same people who wanted to commit hari kari after Victorino got 39/3?
 
Nelson Cruz is not a 14 million dollar improvement over Daniel Nava, roided or Not.

I mean, Jhonny Peralta just got 53/4. Is it really that much of stretch to think Cruz could get something near that?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I mean, Jhonny Peralta just got 52/4. Is it really that much of stretch to think Cruz could get something near that?

 
In that context, it isn't that much of a stretch.  But it's a huge stretch to think that the Red Sox are going to be the team to pay that price for that player.

 

[MakMan44]

 
In that context, it isn't that much of a stretch.  But it's a huge stretch to think that the Red Sox are going to be the team to pay that price for that player.

That I can agree with. 

 

[glennhoffmania]

 
In that context, it isn't that much of a stretch.  But it's a huge stretch to think that the Red Sox are going to be the team to pay that price for that player.

 
I'd agree with this but it leads me to a question.  It seems that there are a lot of FAs for whom many of us are saying the Sox aren't going to be the team to pay X or give Y years.  At what point do they have to be willing to do so if the trend is that FAs are more expensive than we originally were comfortable with?  Otherwise they may just get shut out of any FA options.

 

[Niastri]

I (and more importantly, maybe the Sox) would be alright with that.

Play with the team we have, bring up some kids and sign a couple low price free agents for depth, and roll the dice.

Overpaying for short contacts may not work any more, so the choice is either go young or pay too much.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

 
I'd agree with this but it leads me to a question.  It seems that there are a lot of FAs for whom many of us are saying the Sox aren't going to be the team to pay X or give Y years.  At what point do they have to be willing to do so if the trend is that FAs are more expensive than we originally were comfortable with?  Otherwise they may just get shut out of any FA options.

 
I think that point comes when it's a FA that fills a roster need they don't feel they can adequately fill otherwise.  With the "deep depth" they've built in the organization, it very well could be they don't reach that point this winter with any free agent at any position.

 

[glennhoffmania]

 
I think that point comes when it's a FA that fills a roster need they don't feel they can adequately fill otherwise.  With the "deep depth" they've built in the organization, it very well could be they don't reach that point this winter with any free agent at any position.

 
Perhaps, but I think the broader question is whether we have to reevaluate what qualifies as expensive and long-term.  Maybe the Sox already have.  A lot of us think that something like 4/48 for Salty is a big overpay but if that's what he's worth now we have to adjust our expectations.  I don't think one deal that has been signed this offseason sounds reasonable so either everyone else is crazy or my perspective is wrong.

 

[TomRicardo]

I mean, Jhonny Peralta just got 53/4. Is it really that much of stretch to think Cruz could get something near that?

 
Perelta plays a more premium position (poorly but Cruz is a bad corner OF), with a better IsoD, and is younger.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

 
Well, a couple of caveats here.
 
One thing did change this year: Safeco field. From 2009-2012, Safeco was one of the most extreme pitcher's parks in baseball. The Mariners moved the fences this year, and it rated about neutral. Obviously, the sample size is far too small to draw any meaningful conclusions, especially for a guy like Gutierrez who missed so much time.
 
Another thing is that we're talking about a center fielder; his power isn't significant for an outfielder, but for the position (especially as a backup) it's pretty good. Gutierrez's career ISO (without park adjustments) puts him in Austin Jackson territory. Not a masher, but above average power for the position.
 
Lastly, the guy has a pronounced platoon split; career 120 WRC+ against lefties, 75 WRC+ against righties. As a backup, he could be used pretty effectively... IF he's at all healthy. I don't think that is the case at all, but that's why the teams have scouts and physicians. Worth a look, but I would be shocked if the Red Sox bring him in on more than a minor league deal -- especially if they look to him as Bradley insurance.

 
Even if the walls moving in at Safeco impacted his results, that doesn't impact his skills and in a discussion about him playing at Fenway it is his skills that matter, not the results in some other park, right?
 
Gutierrez' career ISO would have been 14th among 18 qualified CFs last year.  So I do not think it's really the case that he has a lot of power for the position either, unless something significant has changed in his skill profile.   Personally, I'd be leery of projecting that based on 150 ABs.  
 
Again, I kind of like him as a fallback/bench option for CF in some scenarios, but I do not think it's a good bet that he's going to provide much power out of that role.  If the Sox sign him, of course, I hope to be wrong about that. 

 

[MakMan44]

Perelta plays a more premium position (poorly but Cruz is a bad corner OF), with a better IsoD, and is younger.

They're both on the wrong side of 30 anyway and Cruz has hit 25+ HRs over the last 3 seasons. With power numbers down across the league, Cruz has a pretty good case to get somewhere near Perelta's deal (at least in AAV)

EDIT: Got Cruz's age wrong

 

[TomRicardo]

They're both on the wrong side of 30 anyway and Cruz has hit 25+ HRs over the last 3 seasons. With power numbers down across the league, Cruz has a pretty good case to get somewhere near Perelta's deal (at least in AAV)

EDIT: Got Cruz's age wrong

 
I guess some team could flinch and give him a terrible contract.  I don't see that being the Red Sox though.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

Cruz is the kind of guy who is most overrated by OPS - he is SLG heavy in his OPS, he's slow and he plays terrible defense.  Craig Gentry was better in every facet of the game than Cruz, producing equal offense in a little more than half the PAs and of course far superior defense and baserunning.  Whoever gets Cruz will overpay for him and the Rangers are better off without him.

 

[MakMan44]

I'm not trying to argue the Sox should even think about Cruz, he's been near league average the last few years but I do think a team lacking power is going to end up giving him a contract that we can all laugh about.

 

[Devizier]

I think it's also worth mentioning that people might remember Cruz at his peak value -- three years ago -- when he was, by all means, an excellent player. Because Cruz was such a late-developing player, he was already thirty during his breakout season. His performance has declined in the seasons since, and he hasn't been especially healthy, either.

 

[ArgentinaSOXfan]

I tweeted in spanish to Carlos Beltran, telling him to (please) sign with Boston, to forget about the crappy Yankees and not to betray the Mets (obviously, joking).
 
So what? I just realized that he has blocked me from Twitter. I guess he is going to the Yankees    :rolling:

 

[mt8thsw9th]

.833 OPS sucks? You're right....we need quality players like Chris Young

 
At $14+ million he sucks. 2012 Cody Ross was better than anything Cruz put together since 2010, and they're not wholly dissimilar players over the course of their careers (and Ross is 6 months younger to boot), save for the steroid thing. They were even both LCS MVPs, both hit .268 over their age 26-32 seasons with an OBP with a .002 differential; Cruz had a bit more power, though he didn't have to play most of his games in Florida and SF. I'm glad the Red Sox didn't give a long term deal to Ross, either. He was great on a reasonable contract, but you don't give big contracts to third tier players who offer no other value out of the batter's box.
 
And I'll add, if your options are Chris Young at $7.25MM on a one-year deal, and Cruz on a 4 year deal for nearly double the AAV, then yes, you need players like Chris Young. Or 2012 Cody Ross. Or 2013 Jonny Gomes, and so on...

 

[chrisfont9]

.833 OPS sucks? You're right....we need quality players like Chris Young

Sox just won a championship by avoiding guys who do any particular thing terribly, a la Cruz's fielding. Which cost Texas a series, essentially. So while one can concoct a case for Cruz being valuable, I can't see the Sox biting unless it were as a DH, which it won't be.

 

[soxhop411]

I tweeted in spanish to Carlos Beltran, telling him to (please) sign with Boston, to forget about the crappy Yankees and not to betray the Mets (obviously, joking).

So what? I just realized that he has blocked me from Twitter. I guess he is going to the Yankees :rolling:


Would not shock me.

 

[benhogan]

Sorry I just don't get this fascination with signing or trading for a high priced corner OFer  (Cruz, Kemp, Beltran, Ethier etc).
 
We have Nava/Gomes in LF and Victorino in RF. The production and depth we received from our present corner OFers is top 5 in MLB at a very reasonable price/commitment.
 
If we pass on Ells and Napoli, then I think the focus should be on either finding a RHH CFer to back up JBJ (Young would have been perfect for that) OR a RHH 1st basemen to platoon with Carp (Hart).

 

[E5 Yaz]

The Royals would want a major return for Holland, whom they really don’t want to trade, but rival club officials say Aaron Crow and Tim Collins are very available — while noting both are controllable, relatively affordable and bring a solid track record.
 
 

http://www.kansascity.com/2013/11/25/4649005/royals-have-potential-trade-chips.html
 
either of these guys would be worth a spot for the sox

Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2013/11/25/4649005/royals-have-potential-trade-chips.html#storylink=cpy

 

[wyatt55]

There a lot of "Cruz sucks" and is a "butcher" on the field.  Does anyone have the numbers or anything else to back this besides the SSS (Single Sample Size) of the WS play? 
 
Eyeballing his range factors in BBREF vs league average, they don't look horrendous.  He does have a strong arm based on some of the OF assists I have seen him make.  I'm not stumping for him, just wondering if this butchery is a supported fact or just popular myth.  And yes, 4/60 would be a poor choice. 
 
I'd actually try and make a play for Mitch Moreland.  Rangers may sell low based on his failure to progress and Prince now blocking him.  He's, cheap, he's got some pop and he'll only be 28 this year.  And the Rangers have a nice history of giving up on 1Bmen too soon. 
 
Edit = If we don't keep Nap I'd rather have Hart at a fair number since Moreland's a lefty, just thought Moreland'd be relatively available and a buy low type.

 

[Todd Benzinger]

Does Cruz suck? Maybe, maybe not. But the case has been made before. Fangraphs picked him as the #1 "landmine" of this year's free agent crop. Of course, FG hated Ben's Victorino signing, and the money projected isn't that bad, so maybe they are wrong. But the criticism is that Nellie will get most likely overpaid for being a fairly one-dimensional player, with a higher than average chance of serious decline, and that seems pretty reasonable. Really, if we want a prime age Nellie Cruz type player, maybe we should just find more PT for our own under-rated 4A slugger with breakout potential... Mike Carp. I don't think getting a righty is worth a FA contract.
 
FYI, for both fWAR (3.9) & bWAR (3.7), Cruz has totalled just under 4 WAR over the past 3 seasons; for both, his best was 2013 despite having the fewest PAs. 
 
A key. if hyperbolic, snippet:
Even a full strength, completely healthy Nelson Cruz is more of an average player than a good one. And that’s before we project how he’ll do in his mid-30s, as his body breaks down further, and his physical strength starts to slip away. Of all the free agents who are likely to get significant contracts this winter, Cruz looks like the most likely to just turn into a replacement level scrub overnight.

 

[CaskNFappin]

I'm not even advocating Cruz, just pointing out that "sucks" is hyperbole. This board has a funny way of turning a blemish into warts for any free agent on the market. Contrarily I notice a lack of objectivity and scrutiny for guys like Nava and Carp. They have a decent season under their belts and no one seems concerned that those could have been outliers.

The preoccupation some of us might have with adding a corner outfielder like Beltran or Cruz, is that we fear losing all of our FAs and trying to replace their production with unproven commodities on the cheap could set the team up for massive drop off in "pop."

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Just as Napoli's AVN poses a huge, hard-to-quantify risk, I should think that Cruz's PED suspension would also cause teams some pause.  If his one good skill is power, and he used PEDs, then...?   I'd be VERY nervous about extending a long term deal to him.  To pick another, comparable risk example, Melky was a mess this season even before his body fell apart.  And he didn't sign for 4 years, $60M.  But then there's Peralta's deal, so who knows? 

 

[TomRicardo]

I'm not even advocating Cruz, just pointing out that "sucks" is hyperbole. This board has a funny way of turning a blemish into warts for any free agent on the market. Contrarily I notice a lack of objectivity and scrutiny for guys like Nava and Carp. They have a decent season under their belts and no one seems concerned that those could have been outliers.

The preoccupation some of us might have with adding a corner outfielder like Beltran or Cruz, is that we fear losing all of our FAs and trying to replace their production with unproven commodities on the cheap could set the team up for massive drop off in "pop."

 
Cruz does not suck however a 60/4 contract for Cruz would indeed suck.

 

[MakMan44]

I'm not even advocating Cruz, just pointing out that "sucks" is hyperbole. This board has a funny way of turning a blemish into warts for any free agent on the market. Contrarily I notice a lack of objectivity and scrutiny for guys like Nava and Carp. They have a decent season under their belts and no one seems concerned that those could have been outliers.

The preoccupation some of us might have with adding a corner outfielder like Beltran or Cruz, is that we fear losing all of our FAs and trying to replace their production with unproven commodities on the cheap could set the team up for massive drop off in "pop."

I think, to a large degree, it has to do with the fact that Cruz & Beltran are both going to require a pick to sign and thus any flaws are expounded upon. 
 
We also don't really know how much "pop" Cruz is going to have now that he's supposedly off PEDs or Beltran at 37. They have more question marks than Nava or Carp do, IMO.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I'm not even advocating Cruz, just pointing out that "sucks" is hyperbole. This board has a funny way of turning a blemish into warts for any free agent on the market. Contrarily I notice a lack of objectivity and scrutiny for guys like Nava and Carp. They have a decent season under their belts and no one seems concerned that those could have been outliers.

The preoccupation some of us might have with adding a corner outfielder like Beltran or Cruz, is that we fear losing all of our FAs and trying to replace their production with unproven commodities on the cheap could set the team up for massive drop off in "pop."

 
If Carp or Nava's productive 2013 seasons are outliers, then the cost of running them out there in 2014 and failing is a near minimum salary for either of them.  If you go the FA route with a Beltran or Cruz, the cost of them failing due to PED drop-off or age-related decline is in the millions of dollars AND a draft pick.  In one case, you're out pocket change and there's no real hurdle to overcome to seek out and deploy an alternative, even in mid-season.  In the other, you're on the hook for a lot of money, perhaps for a couple years beyond 2014, and a bit more handcuffed in terms of seeking out an alternative.

 

[nvalvo]

Of course, FG hated Ben's Victorino signing, and the money projected isn't that bad, so maybe they are wrong.
 

 
At the risk of digression, let's drill down on this for a second. The very, very plausible case against the Victorino signing was that it was a long and expensive commitment for a player with a very worrying decline in his ability to hit right handed pitching. That was a very real concern, as a glance at his 2012 splits will suggest. If he had put up a .630 OPS in two thirds of his plate appearances, he would have been hard-pressed to post a .700 OPS, let alone the .800ish figure he actually posted. And what if he had declined even further in those situations, as his late season slump in LA might have foreshadowed? Yikes. This was the thinking behind the bear position on Victorino, a view I shared. 
 
Now as it turned out, Victorino salvaged his numbers against righties by stopping switch-hitting, after which point he improved his numbers against them to the tune of 200 points of OPS. But even then, those vs-RHP-as-RHB numbers were inflated dramatically by eleven HBP in 115 PA. HBP accounted for precisely one quarter of his times on base hitting righty against right-handed pitching. 
 
Fangraphs hardly discredited themselves by failing to anticipate this turn of events.
 
But — and here's why i think this discussion is relevant — when people talk about somebody like Nelson Cruz, it's not unreasonable to think that the power that makes him an attractive candidate might have something to do with his home ballpark and his PED suspension, and note that if that power were to decline, his poor fielding, OBP and baserunning would leave him a mediocre player. Now Cruz will sign somewhere, and he will either succeed or fail or somewhere in between. If he succeeds, as Victorino did, it will be easy to say that the doubters were wrong on the basis of that outcome, that we were picking nits or turning blemishes into warts or whatever disgusting metaphor you prefer.
 
But were they? I think there was (and still is) a plausible risk that Victorino collapses as a hitter during the term of this contract. Maybe I'm wrong, and I'm thrilled we got a great season out of him. It's certainly possible Ben had information that Fangraphs (and I) didn't. But I think the risks I saw before the season were real, and more pronounced than the performance risk inherent in all players — hell, even a guy like Albert Pujols. 

 

[soxhop411]

Peter Gammons ‏@pgammo6m
Told Dioner Navarro is moving to resolution, Boston not in pursuit

 

[JohntheBaptist]

 
Peter Gammons ‏@pgammo6m
Told Dioner Navarro is moving to resolution, Boston not in pursuit
 

Hmmm.  The "N" and the "H" are too close on the keyboard to draw any concrete info on this one, I think.

 

[chrisfont9]

Hmmm.  The "N" and the "H" are too close on the keyboard to draw any concrete info on this one, I think.

Hey, he called the Yankees resigning Rtan.

 

[soxhop411]

Alex Speier ‏@alexspeier9s
Lucchimo says Sox have considerable confidence that Bradley/Bogaerts can be productive everyday players in 2014.
 
Alex Speier ‏@alexspeier47s
Said team still prefers shorter term deals for more dollars, and prefers to keep draft picks as default option.

 

[ItOnceWasMyLife]

Hmmm.  The "N" and the "H" are too close on the keyboard to draw any concrete info on this one, I think.

It's funny because it's true.

 

[JimBoSox9]

 
Alex Speier ‏@alexspeier9s
Lucchimo says Sox have considerable confidence that Bradley/Bogaerts can be productive everyday players in 2014.
 
Alex Speier ‏@alexspeier47s
Said team still prefers shorter term deals for more dollars, and prefers to keep draft picks as default option.
 

 
GEE FREE AGENTS, WE DON'T REEEEEEALLY NEED YOU AFTER ALL, CERTAINLY NOT AT THOSE YEARS!
Love,
Lucky
 
Seriously fella, not every fart on Twitter is worth retwiting.

 

[rembrat]

Holy shit are you Sheamus?

 

[mt8thsw9th]

Hmmm.  The "N" and the "H" are too close on the keyboard to draw any concrete info on this one, I think.

Well, even if he put an H, that's still too close to the Russian N to draw any conclusions from Gammo.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

MLBTR has a summary of yesterday's Speier post that includes these interesting tidbits:
 

• On the overall market, also via Speier, Lucchino sums things up succinctly: "everyone is expecting [the market] will go up because nothing ever goes down and because there's new television money available." While the club would like to keep down its long-term commitments, he says, and "still value the draft picks enormously," he acknowledged that a "diverse portfolio of contracts" will include some that are "longer than you want."
  [*]Ultimately, according to Lucchino, the Red Sox "are not going to be a stand-pat team." Explaining that he "learned a long time ago that you can't fall in love with your veterans," Lucchino said that each the club "will have a different personality, composition as well as personality."
  

 
Is it just me or do the bolded bits, taken together, practically scream "goodbye Gomes, hello Kemp"?

 

[Quintanariffic]

MLBTR has a summary of yesterday's Speier post that includes these interesting tidbits:
 
 
Is it just me or do the bolded bits, taken together, practically scream "goodbye Gomes, hello Kemp"?

I don't know.  Seems more like an ink blot test that you can interpret anyway you like.  15 wildly different sets of moves could be made that would vaguely fit that description.

 

[Drek717]

MLBTR has a summary of yesterday's Speier post that includes these interesting tidbits:
 
 
Is it just me or do the bolded bits, taken together, practically scream "goodbye Gomes, hello Kemp"?

I don't know, I'd say it's more like "shots fired" at Napoli and Salty with the dual read between the lines meanings of "if we thought you were worth more years we'd have offered it" and "we aren't afraid to replace the old vets with new vets this winter".
 
So more like a "goodbye Napoli and Salty, hello Hart and Hanigan".
 
The first bolded comment also sounds like a bit of an overture to Ellsbury.  They'll give him more years than they really want to if the AAV is right.  Clearly $20M+ is not the right AAV.
 
The Nava/Gomes platoon is just too valuable versus cost to give up for the one more season it's in place.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I don't know, I'd say it's more like "shots fired" at Napoli and Salty with the dual read between the lines meanings of "if we thought you were worth more years we'd have offered it" and "we aren't afraid to replace the old vets with new vets this winter".
 
So more like a "goodbye Napoli and Salty, hello Hart and Hanigan".

 
Hart and Hanigan wouldn't account for the bit about having to include some contracts longer than you want, though. Unless that's softening the media up for offering Salty four years, it sounds like a hint that we're either going to go big to keep Ellsbury or acquire some veteran with a long contract in a trade (hence the Kemp allusion).
 
EDIT--missed your Ellsbury reference first time around. It could be that.

 

[opes]

Why Hanigan?  The only value he has is fielding.  There is no reason at all to sign him with Ross and Lavarnway.  There would be no reason to sign him if the sox didnt even have a catcher, hes that worthless.

 

[CaskNFappin]

Why Hanigan?  The only value he has is fielding.  There is no reason at all to sign him with Ross and Lavarnway.  There would be no reason to sign him if the sox didnt even have a catcher, hes that worthless.

Those are fighting words around here. I think he's the only binkie left on the market!

 

[opes]

Yes and that produced what?  He's not getting on base as much as you think he is.