Hot Stove Rumors - The Fenway Edition
- Thread starter absintheofmalaise
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With Beltran headed to the Royals for what looks like 3/48, Salty discarded to bring on AJP at limited dollars and years and the Mariners sniffing around on Kemp, I wonder if the Sox are seriously considering bringing back Ellsbury.
Van Everyman said:
What has gone on with Beltran and Kemp (neither of whom do I think the Sox were ever aggressively "in" on) hasn't changed anything at all w/r/t Ellsbury. I think their position all along is that they are perfectly willing to bring back Ellsbury but only at their price. If they can't get him at that price or better, they are 100% committed to moving on to JBJ. I can't see that price point changing because they "saved" money on a catcher or didn't sign/trade for another outfielder.
Van Everyman said:
Not tendering Bailey, making no commitment at catcher beyond this year and getting it done at a number $6 million under a QO for Salty, and not making a splash yet anywhere else, saving their pennies for a $20 million AAV is one way to read the tea leaves for sure.
Assuming they are still in the neighborhood of $25 million under the cap with the ability to dump more with Dempster or Peavey, what else could they be looking at?
Unless "their price" changes based on what they spend to fill the other holes in the lineup.
I agree with you on Kemp â tho I do think they checked in on Beltran. But if you get a catcher at cheap dollars and one year and can fill 1B on an affordable deal with the likes of Corey Hart, do you suddenly have more wiggle room on Ellsbury? I would think you might.
Edit: forgot about Bailey
I agree with you on Kemp â tho I do think they checked in on Beltran. But if you get a catcher at cheap dollars and one year and can fill 1B on an affordable deal with the likes of Corey Hart, do you suddenly have more wiggle room on Ellsbury? I would think you might.
Edit: forgot about Bailey
Van Everyman said:
Unless they think they're getting Ellsbury on a one-year deal, I'm not sure how room in the 2014 "budget" is going to greatly impact where they've drawn the line on Ellsbury. Since he's going to require a multi-year commitment to lock up, saving a couple million one 1-year deals at catcher and possibly 1B shouldn't be swaying them too much.
Red(s)HawksFan said:
Well, 2014 is the most important year, because it's important to stay under the cap with the new refund system apparently. And commitments are so small for future years that I think getting 2014 in line is the first and main order of business before signing a FA. With a payroll obligation of $41.5 million next year, and nothing significant beyond that not named Dustin Pedrioa, I do think (keeping with the wild-ass tea leaves speculation of this thread) how the Sox are arranging 2014 is a significant key to figuring out what they might be trying to do in the next couple of months.
Based on the AJP signing, the FO must believe that their catching need will be taken care of with the 2 youngsters beginning 2015 and will span through 2020. Letting Salty walk actually saves them about 13 million over the 15-16 seasons. Also keep in mind that Lackey saves them about 14 million in 15 as well as a few more million for Gomes in 15. All that adds up to future savings allowing the adding of salary down the road - not just this season. Squeezing Ells in this year knowing that you are in a better place financially down the road to have more flexibility seems like a no-brainer to me.Red(s)HawksFan said:
@jonmorosi: Sources: Red Sox and Brewers among teams that have checked in with Marlins about Logan Morrison. @FOXSports1
some tweets from todays conference call
Pete Abraham @PeteAbe13m
Cherington says #RedSox seeking infielder who can play on the left side, perhaps a bench guy. He doesn't see a need for a backup CF
Scott Lauber @ScottLauber16m
Cherington: Left-side infielder remains priority for #RedSox, although unsure whether looking for prominent or complementary player
Michael Silverman @MikeSilvermanBB18m
Cherington wouldn't rule out a significant move but not close to anything. #RedSox
Michael Silverman @MikeSilvermanBB20m
Cherington not ready to announce Napoli deal but "it could be that we've done most our heavy-lifting." #RedSox now in "opportunistic'' mode.
Pete Abraham @PeteAbe13m
Cherington says #RedSox seeking infielder who can play on the left side, perhaps a bench guy. He doesn't see a need for a backup CF
Scott Lauber @ScottLauber16m
Cherington: Left-side infielder remains priority for #RedSox, although unsure whether looking for prominent or complementary player
Michael Silverman @MikeSilvermanBB18m
Cherington wouldn't rule out a significant move but not close to anything. #RedSox
Michael Silverman @MikeSilvermanBB20m
Cherington not ready to announce Napoli deal but "it could be that we've done most our heavy-lifting." #RedSox now in "opportunistic'' mode.
Mr. Cherington sounds almost Belichekian as if he is taking notes from foxboro interviews. I don't necessarily think there is anything to be read in these tea leaves.
Perhaps notable for more interest in a Drew reunion but that is evident with the QO offer which has definitely suppressed his market.
"Not close to anything" and "in opportunistic mode" sounds like he is waiting for prices to come down (Drew) or significant increase in subsidy for ( Kemp)
Perhaps notable for more interest in a Drew reunion but that is evident with the QO offer which has definitely suppressed his market.
"Not close to anything" and "in opportunistic mode" sounds like he is waiting for prices to come down (Drew) or significant increase in subsidy for ( Kemp)
If they're looking for a utility infielder, why not Munenori Kawasaki? He's decent in the field, and he bats lefty. Considering WMB, XB and Pedroia all hit right handed, that could be a good move. Nava continues to platoon with Gomes and backup 1B and then we'd need a CF as a 5th OF.
What about Brock Holt as a UTIL? I think that a UTIL INF should be something that is found within the organization. Holt seems like he has the versatility to play everywhere. Its better than paying 1-2 million for an outside answer.
Holt's a decent hitter, but his defense is pretty rough. Plus, his LAR (lovable antics rating) is significantly lower than Munenori Kawasaki's was.Tyrone Biggums said:
http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2013/11/1/5053814/the-season-that-was-munenori-kawasaki
http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2013/6/26/4465226/well-miss-you-munenori-kawasaki
With 2B locked up for the next decade, Seattle would seem to only have room for one of either Nick Franklin or Brad Miller. Although they are both more middle infielders than left side infielders. I wonder if they would be interested in some combination of Dempster/Villareal/Wilson/Lavarnway?
I think when he says left-side infielder Cherington probably means a guy who can be a decent semi-regular SS for a couple months if needed, and a quality utility IF if our starters play well. If Middlebrooks or Bogaerts slumps for a long time and/or gets injured, this guy would play SS until they return or we upgrade. If both of the others are doing well, then this guy is the utility IF. So it'd be someone better than Holt who ideally could also back up 2B.
Kawasaki would be my choice if we sign a free agent for this role. Fielding Bible had him as an average defensive SS last year, and his OBP was .326 last year (.345 in his career in Japan.) He bats lefty, so he could be a good spot start choice if Middlebrooks or Bogaerts is struggling with righties. 7 for 8 in stolen bases too. He'd be a good guy to have as a utility IF. Toronto picked him up on a minor league deal last year, he's a year older, and he just got non-tendered because Toronto didn't want to pay him $1 million, so he shouldn't cost much to sign. He seems like he's got a wacky personality, so he'd probably fit in well here.
On the trade market, maybe we shoot for a guy like Owings from Arizona. He'd cost a lot, but has some real potential and would be a great long term addition, and AZ has another young SS already.
The only problem with adding a utility IF instead of just using Holt is that we'd need another spot on the 40-man. I guess if we added someone else, we would just move Holt off of there and then try to sign him back to play in Pawtucket.
Kawasaki would be my choice if we sign a free agent for this role. Fielding Bible had him as an average defensive SS last year, and his OBP was .326 last year (.345 in his career in Japan.) He bats lefty, so he could be a good spot start choice if Middlebrooks or Bogaerts is struggling with righties. 7 for 8 in stolen bases too. He'd be a good guy to have as a utility IF. Toronto picked him up on a minor league deal last year, he's a year older, and he just got non-tendered because Toronto didn't want to pay him $1 million, so he shouldn't cost much to sign. He seems like he's got a wacky personality, so he'd probably fit in well here.
On the trade market, maybe we shoot for a guy like Owings from Arizona. He'd cost a lot, but has some real potential and would be a great long term addition, and AZ has another young SS already.
The only problem with adding a utility IF instead of just using Holt is that we'd need another spot on the 40-man. I guess if we added someone else, we would just move Holt off of there and then try to sign him back to play in Pawtucket.
I agree that Holt didn't impress defensively last year--he didn't look up to playing 3B, let alone SS--and Kawasaki sounds like an upgrade.
Devizier said:
By staying in New York, "UI" is going to have two meanings in his case as in addition to being a utility infielder, he will also be an "Understudy Intangibles".
He's more like the Japanese Pedro Ciriaco (trick or treat)... he was pretty awful last year.BosRedSox5 said:
Actually Punto would be a better comp than Ciriaco. Ciriaco is a hacker with high BABIP and not much power. Kawasaki in his brief ML stints has shown good PD but a very low BABIP and zero power. He's better at not making outs than you'd expect from a guy who's terrible at hitting, which is Punto in a nutshell.
Maybe he's not such a good idea after all.
Maybe he's not such a good idea after all.
From Fielding Bible:
Ciriaco at SS: -13 runs in about 350 innings in his career at SS.
Punto at SS: +8 runs in about 400 innings over the last 3 years.
Kawasaki at SS: +1 in about 700 innings over his 2 years in the US.
Punto just got a $3 million contract from Oakland, Kawasaki is a free agent whose $1 million contract option got declined.
Ciriaco at SS: -13 runs in about 350 innings in his career at SS.
Punto at SS: +8 runs in about 400 innings over the last 3 years.
Kawasaki at SS: +1 in about 700 innings over his 2 years in the US.
Punto just got a $3 million contract from Oakland, Kawasaki is a free agent whose $1 million contract option got declined.
The comment about prominent versus complimentary perhaps suggests that Drew is still in play. If they go the complimentary route, I guess I'd like to see it be more of a utility guy who can also play 2B in a pinch. Unless Bogaerts is going to train to play second base, Pedey has no back up on the expected 25 man roster now. Maybe they just have him penciled in for 162 games, figuring he'd play even with a broken leg. Maybe this isn't much of a priority with Holt available to be called up. But there was a certain comfort level at having a guy like Ciriaco who could play pretty much anywhere other than catcher on the bench. Cherrington's comment seems to suggest they want to keep Holt where he is for now and so isn't that guy yet.
“@bradfo: Seems to be a lot of interest in Mike Carp. Considering what's left in first base maker, makes sense”
“@JMastrodonato: Belief by some at Winter Meetings is that Red Sox could sell high on Daniel Nava or Mike Carp. Carp makes a lot of sense for a lot of teams.”
“@JMastrodonato: Belief by some at Winter Meetings is that Red Sox could sell high on Daniel Nava or Mike Carp. Carp makes a lot of sense for a lot of teams.”
Well, consider that a team like the Mariners was reportedly considering Taijuan Walker for David Price, and that Sale is both better and more cost controlled than Price is. I don't think the White Sox will get a deal to their satisfaction, though.
Carp is essentially blocked by Nap now. He'd have more value to another club, and his roster spot would be better used by the Sox on a guy who could back-up/platoon at SS and 3B (Drew replacement). What teams have that kind of player plus a need for Carp?
Minneapolis Millers said:
Carp provided tremendous value to the Red Sox last year, considering he only had 243 plate appearances, and has value to this team as a plausible backup to DH/1B/LF. The return which comes back for Carp would have to compensate the team for this value and role as a solid contingency plan. I think there are enough uncertainties related to the health of Ortiz and Napoli which makes Carp more than just a luxury for this team.
I mean the fact that he had over 240 plate appearances last year says something, even though he was ostensibly blocked by Ortiz and Napoli (and Nava and Gomes). It's not inconceivable he could get another 240 PA in 2014. If you don't give those at bats to Carp, I would hope there is someone of similar value and potential on the bench getting those at bats.
I could see taking on someone like Justin Smoak in that role as insurance and a reclamation project. In any case, with both Napoli and Ortiz, not to mention the potential regression of Nava, this team almost has to have a potential starter like Carp ready to go. The team's depth at 1B is so thin, I think there would need to be a couple of steps before Cherington would let Carp go, unless he gets totally blown away.
EDIT: Unless you believe last year's numbers were a complete mirage.
Minneapolis Millers said:
I agree that with Napoli back, Carp appears blocked. But with Nap's hip, it wouldn't be a horrible thing to keep Carp around as insurance. I disagree that his roster spot could be better used by a UI since there's already a spot available for a UI with Carp still around...after all, that spot existed all last season. The only point where the team didn't have a true back-up for Pedroia was the two weeks in late August where the UI spot was filled by Bogaerts.
That said, if they can get a good return for Carp, such as a UI or a solid prospect, I don't think they should hesitate to make the deal.
Minneapolis Millers said:
Well, they are going to need a UT Inf. regardless and there's room on the roster for both Carp and the UT guy. A backup CF on the other hand is precluded by Carp's presence. Now, myself, I'd rather they kept Carp around as Napoli and Papi insurance with an eye toward Papi's eventual replacement. I think that outweighs the need for another OF
Cherrington's comments upthread seem to indicate the FO has no immediate plans or desire to acquire a backup CF. So what could they get for Carp that would be worth the sacrifice? A middle reliever springs to mind but there is no real need right now - that leaves prospects , and one assumes they couldn't get much more than a B- type guy - which I don't think is worth it.. Another possibility is to trade both Dempster and Carp for something of real value.
Are you saying that Felix Doubront is significantly more valuable than Chris Tillman?DrewDawg said:
I'm not much of a Brown fan in any case but...
Devizier said:
Plus is his upside much higher than Carp at this point? Aren't they similar players (LHH, SLG-driven OPS, terrible fielder) minus the pedigree.
I'm surprised to see so much discussion on this board centered around corner OF types. I think the upgrade over Nava/Gomes, Carp, or Victorino would have to be clear for it to be worth discussing. On the other hand, upper level OF depth in the minors is fairly thin. If a move were made, I could see efforts either to bolster AA and AAA outfield depth or to secure a CF to fit with the plan for JBJ, rather than corner outfielders.
The biggest question mark among position players is probably Will Middlebrooks, and there has been very little talk of acquiring upgrades at 3B.
I think most everyone can agree that Sox management has had an itch for a big bat corner outfielder (Stanton). What if they set their sights just a tad lower and investigate either Bautista (who can fill in at 3rd) or Cespedes ( who is younger, cost controlled two more yrs., and generating chatter about his availability). Who would be the better fit, and at what cost?
RochesterSamHorn said:
What makes you think that Toronto would ever trade Bautista within the division?
Otis Foster said:
Especially to the Sox , considering Farrell and all .. which is a shame because a Lackey plus B pitching prospect is EXACTLY what they want in a Bautista trade.