He could be ready as soon as the 2nd half of this year. Doubront could be out of the rotation and none of the prosects att Pawtucketare pitching well. If it isn't until next year there could be two spots with Peavy probably leaving.
Owens is also 5" taller with a proportionately larger wingspan which certainly makes up for some velocity. Regardless, control, as always, is going to be far more important than a couple mph.LeftyTG said:Owens' minor league stats remind me of a left handed Yusmeiro Petit. Petit was young (a year younger by league than Owens) and dominant racking up strike outs, though with average or slightly below average velocity. Petit thrived with arm action and a killer change, just like Owens.
I'm not trying to be a downer, and I'm certainly not predicting doom and gloom for Owens, but I have some tempered expectations. I do think he'll eventually be a good 3 starter, but I suspect he'll take his share of lumps. He simply won't have the margin of error other, more high velocity pitchers, have. Of course, I'm still holding out hope for a velocity bump as he continues to fill out.
derekson said:Throwing 89-91 hasn't stopped Cliff Lee from being one of the best pitchers in baseball since 2008. That's plenty of fastball for a lefty with good off speed stuff and a deceptive delivery.
Sprowl said:If he only throws 90-91, how does Owens do it? If it's all deception, will it play at the next level?
JimBoSox9 said:
Right now, I think it's a combination of deception and a plus changeup is too advanced a combination for the hitters he's facing. I don't have evidence for you, but if we were able to see the movement inflection point between his fastball and change, we'd see that it's practically right on top of the plate, pushing his functional fastball velocity up into the 96-97 range. Combine that with great arm action on the change, and the deceptive delivery (I don't think that's going away either, it's much more about hiding the ball with his gumby-ass body than a funky release), it's just too much for developing hitters to adjust to.
Normally I'm a big believer in the notion of a mostly flat talent level between AA and AAA, but Owens is a guy for whom I'm mostly discounting his Portland numbers as irrelevant to projecting his MLB future. He needs to get into Pawtucket; it'll be very hard to trust the data until he starts facing veterans.
TLR I think the problem set Owens presents to hitters is sort of optimized to eat young guys for lunch and be solved by tricks learned via experience.
Sprowl said:If he only throws 90-91, how does Owens do it? If it's all deception, will it play at the next level?
JimBoSox9 said:...if we were able to see the movement inflection point between his fastball and change, we'd see that it's practically right on top of the plate, pushing his functional fastball velocity up into the 96-97 range.
I think the point was that the older players in AAA, including both the most talented prospects and AAAA guys, will be less likely to fall for Owens' deception than the guys in AA who may be more talented players overall but have less experience figuring out such pitching. In any case, I'm not sure what we're learning from keeping him at AA. He needs to find some hitters who present a challenge, whatever level that may be. But I suspect that will be soon.LondonSox said:What's so special about AAA?
The normal opinion is that the jump to AA is the big leap.
I don't get that point at all.
Sprowl said:
I'm not sure what a movement inflection point is, and what it means for an inflection point to be right on top of the plate. Can you elaborate?
Sprowl said:
I'm not sure what a movement inflection point is, and what it means for an inflection point to be right on top of the plate. Can you elaborate?
He had the 2 curves when he was here in Greenville. It is not a new pitch.Smiling Joe Hesketh said:And Tudor Fever and I were there last night too, right behind the plate. A real SoSH Mainer gathering.
That 68 MPH pitch was his slow curve, I think.
Me too. I was down the line right behind 3rd base with the Mercy Hospital crowd. He looked free and easy last night at 90-92 and his change up was devastating for swinging third strikes.Smiling Joe Hesketh said:And Tudor Fever and I were there last night too, right behind the plate. A real SoSH Mainer gathering.
That 68 MPH pitch was his slow curve, I think.
Is this why he projects so high even with his 90-92 fastball? Two effective curves at different speeds seems like it could play even at higher levels, especially if his change is as nasty as everyone seems to say. I haven't had a chance to see him yet, but I am looking forward to getting to someday.Detts said:He had the 2 curves when he was here in Greenville. It is not a new pitch.
smastroyin said:And no one else has the same scouting opinion.
JimBoSox9 said:Sure, as long as you assume he can't improve.
You could be right as to his experience in AAA but the question was premised on him performing in AAA along the lines that he has in AA. You may reject the premise and you may be right. But if that indeed happens, then do the Sox get him up to Boston faster?JimBoSox9 said:I think it's insanity to project anything sooner than a Sept 2015 cup of coffee. He's far more likely to have AAA bumps than not. Realistically if he's doing the spot start I-95 shuttle thing, or in the bullpen, by mid-2016, I'd still be pretty happy.
JimBoSox9 said:I think it's insanity to project anything sooner than a Sept 2015 cup of coffee. He's far more likely to have AAA bumps than not. Realistically if he's doing the spot start I-95 shuttle thing, or in the bullpen, by mid-2016, I'd still be pretty happy.
rodderick said:
It's possible, but I'm curious as to why you think that. Isn't it generally accepted that the difference between AA and AAA represents one of, if not the smallest gap in competition between two levels of professional baseball?
Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
There's reason to believe that the move from AA to AAA will be particularly telling in Owens' case, since one of the biggest differences between those levels is the presence of experienced professional hitters at AAA who are used to dealing with pitchers with good changeups (and know how to lay off it and wait for the fastball). AA hitters might be nearly as talented (or even moreso) but they just don't have the experience to handle a guy like Owens.