Gordon Hayward 2020: I'm standing here in pieces and you're having delusions of grandeur!

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scottyno

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The problem is that you really want to get Smart back on the books when he comes off, and it will be at a higher number.

Kemba delenda est.
Yeah, but you're losing something like $75m in salaries between hayward kemba and smart and resigning smart for who knows at that point depending on the NBA economy, maybe 25? That probably lets them slip back under the luxury tax number for a year and reset the repeater tax if that's a concern to ownership so it doesn't turn into a warriors like payroll.
 

lovegtm

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Yeah, but you're losing something like $75m in salaries between hayward kemba and smart and resigning smart for who knows at that point depending on the NBA economy, maybe 25? That probably lets them slip back under the luxury tax number for a year and reset the repeater tax if that's a concern to ownership so it doesn't turn into a warriors like payroll.
Problem is that Kemba has a player option that year. It will cost a lot to move him then, even as an expiring. (I’m assuming the knee issues will not be great after 2 more years of deep playoff runs).
 

scottyno

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Problem is that Kemba has a player option that year. It will cost a lot to move him then, even as an expiring. (I’m assuming the knee issues will not be great after 2 more years of deep playoff runs).
It's possible, but really it's pretty impossible to predict what he's going to look like in 2 years. 2 years ago no one would have thought Hayward would be in a position where it made sense to opt out of $34 million either.
 

Imbricus

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Big problem here seems like the Kemba contract. Danny painted himself in a corner re: salary flexibility in the future. He could've gotten a serviceable point guard for less. (Rozier if the attitude hadn't gone south? Brogdon, though he's more of a shooting guard?) Why sign Kemba if you're not expecting the Celtics to make a really strong run for the title until say 2022? When Jaylen/Jayson are peaking, Kemba is on the wrong side of 30.
 

lovegtm

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It's possible, but really it's pretty impossible to predict what he's going to look like in 2 years. 2 years ago no one would have thought Hayward would be in a position where it made sense to opt out of $34 million either.
Do you want to bet the future of one of the best young cores in the NBA on the prospects of a degenerative knee condition in a 30+ small/quick PG?

Like...you might win the bet, but the odds are really shitty. The Celtics are good enough that they should be derisking this imo.
 

Sille Skrub

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$100 million in Indianapolis goes a lot farther than the same in NYC (or Boston). Plus a smaller microscope. I don't blame him at all in pushing Indy.
Hayward and his wife are also from Indy. She’s already moved in to their Indy suburb home and has all the linens set up. They bought the house in July 2019. We’re in the middle of a pandemic and they just hatched their 4th child. Indy has probably been their plan all along.

Indy is by far the preferred option for Hayward. This is also why Ainge can throw out Warren *and* Turner as his want.
 

Imbricus

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This is also why Ainge can throw out Warren *and* Turner as his want.
Maybe the answer to making this happen isn't so much what Indiana has on the table, but what Boston has. If Boston wants Warren and Turner, why don't they throw in something else? Give Indiana the pu pu platter of Semi/Javonte/Carsen/Tremont/Tacko, and let them pick one or two, and throw in a draft pick or two, a first rounder if needed? Granted, that's not offering a huge amount, but it would get the Celts closer to bridging the difference.
 

lovegtm

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Hayward and his wife are also from Indy. She’s already moved in to their Indy suburb home and has all the linens set up. They bought the house in July 2019. We’re in the middle of a pandemic and they just hatched their 4th child. Indy has probably been their plan all along.

Indy is by far the preferred option for Hayward. This is also why Ainge can throw out Warren *and* Turner as his want.
We’re pretty lucky that Hayward telegraphed his (understandable) preferences so hard.

Based on Robyn’s IG videos, I imagine parental childcare also sounds pretty appealing to him right now. Some things money can’t buy...
 

Sille Skrub

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Maybe the answer to making this happen isn't so much what Indiana has on the table, but what Boston has. If Boston wants Warren and Turner, why don't they throw in something else? Give Indiana the pu pu platter of Semi/Javonte/Carsen/Tremont/Tacko, and let them pick one or two, and throw in a draft pick or two, a first rounder if needed? Granted, that's not offering a huge amount, but it would get the Celts closer to bridging the difference.
Oh they totally could. This is just standard negotiation. Shoot high and settle for what you really want. Ainge knows he has more leverage here than a typical S&T. It’s a unique circumstance. I’m guessing he has a target (I’ll guess it’s Warren, but it doesn’t matter) and is just trying to see what he can actually get out of Indy.

There is also the Ainge/Pritchard pissing match. Ainge is probably still pissed at his comments after the Paul George negotiations.

Again, this one is fascinating to me.
 

lovegtm

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Absolutely. Hopefully the return shows this as well. My only fear is Danny tries to get too cute and ends up with nothing. Indy isn’t a terrible flight from Atlanta.
Nothing is probably better than Turner+McDermott. They can recreate the salary slot to some degree by signing an MLE guy and using their trade exceptions. Yeah, it’s not the same as getting a $15-20M/year guy, but Turner isn’t a true $18M/year guy in terms of value.

It sounds to me like a holdup here is likely that both teams view Turner as a mildly negative asset, but Pritchard knows that those aren’t the public optics and doesn’t want to “lose” the trade.
 

Sille Skrub

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It sounds to me like a holdup here is likely that both teams view Turner as a mildly negative asset, but Pritchard knows that those aren’t the public optics and doesn’t want to “lose” the trade.
Totally agree. Also, because of his semi-recent success in the trading arena, I think every NBA decision maker’s guard goes up when Ainge’s name flashes on their phone.

Another angle I keep thinking about is when Hayward was injured and kid #4 was on the way. I’m guessing kid #4 exists because the first three were girls and they wanted a son. All along we heard GH was flying back to Indy for the birth. Totally understandable - the first son, the lineage baby, parental joy, etc. All the while crazy Celtics nation is harassing Robyn on IG telling her that we need Gordon in the bubble to win #18. This probably drove her nuts. Ultimately, he missed the birth and stayed in the bubble. At the time, I was shocked at the 180 on this.

I could see her saying something like, “You don’t have to be there when I hatch, but we’re fucking moving home after this season. Go get your ring.”

Admittedly, I’ve probably thought about this too much haha.
 

lovegtm

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Totally agree. Also, because of his semi-recent success in the trading arena, I think every NBA decision maker’s guard goes up when Ainge’s name flashes on their phone.

Another angle I keep thinking about is when Hayward was injured and kid #4 was on the way. I’m guessing kid #4 exists because the first three were girls and they wanted a son. All along we heard GH was flying back to Indy for the birth. Totally understandable - the first son, the lineage baby, parental joy, etc. All the while crazy Celtics nation is harassing Robyn on IG telling her that we need Gordon in the bubble to win #18. This probably drove her nuts. Ultimately, he missed the birth and stayed in the bubble. At the time, I was shocked at the 180 on this.

I could see her saying something like, “You don’t have to be there when I hatch, but we’re fucking moving home after this season. Go get your ring.”

Admittedly, I’ve probably thought about this too much haha.
I think it’s fair to say that, while we don’t know the specifics, family dynamics are likely a big driver here.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I saw closer to $150M
I guess it would $150M if he opted-in.

Yeah there are few guys in the NBA who have a better idea about how the worm can turn than Hayward. He's 30 and wants to maximize his earnings for his family. And he's weighing offers from large organizations worth billions.

The difference between 1/34 and 4/100 is a fuckton of money. Who wouldn't want 66 million dollars? Who wants to bet that kind of money on a bad landing on a rebound attempt?

Yeah it's the Knicks, and everyone knows what a horror show that org is. But we should be done with judging guys for looking out for themselves. It's not like he's some fortune 500 CEO cutting himself a bonus and laying off 10K employees and firing up a few south Asian sweatshops to balance the ledger. He's picking his own employer and negotiating his pay, like we all do.
No one's begrudging GH the ability to make whatever he wants and if he wants to go play for NYK for $ that's fine but it seems to me that he's worked super hard in rehab for the last couple of years and he's always said he wants to play for a contender so I'd be shocked if he ended up playing a lot of meaningless basketball in NY.

$60M is a lot when you don't have anything. $60M when you already have made $150M seems to be different but what do I know since $600 is a lot of $ to me. :)
 
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mauf

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So my son turned me around and got me excited about Myles Turner, then I come back here and find out the deal might not happen. Stupid NBA off-season — I guess I’m entertained, but part of me would rather just out when the deal is done instead of getting all these leaks.
 

lovegtm

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So my son turned me around and got me excited about Myles Turner, then I come back here and find out the deal might not happen. Stupid NBA off-season — I guess I’m entertained, but part of me would rather just out when the deal is done instead of getting all these leaks.
The deal is still very much live from what I can tell.
 

pjheff

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Maybe the answer to making this happen isn't so much what Indiana has on the table, but what Boston has. If Boston wants Warren and Turner, why don't they throw in something else? Give Indiana the pu pu platter of Semi/Javonte/Carsen/Tremont/Tacko, and let them pick one or two, and throw in a draft pick or two, a first rounder if needed? Granted, that's not offering a huge amount, but it would get the Celts closer to bridging the difference.
I think that the Pacers want to add Hayward to Warren, not acquire him as a replacement. If anything, it seems that Ainge is holding out for the sweetener to the package of Turner and McDermott.
 

BigSoxFan

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I think that the Pacers want to add Hayward to Warren, not acquire him as a replacement. If anything, it seems that Ainge is holding out for the sweetener to the package of Turner and McDermott.
Seems like Holiday is a reasonable compromise. Are the Pacers really going to let Aaron Holiday get in the way of acquiring Gordon Hayward?

I mean, maybe, since Pritchard is an asshole but this feels like a deal that should get done.
 

bsj

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feels like a gulf between holiday and warren. warren is a guy who i think can really help. holiday...eh

I'd probably rather keep hayward than deal for turner / holiday
 
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BigSoxFan

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feels like a gulf between holiday and warren. warren is a guy who i think can really help. holiday...eh
Holiday would be a solid backup PG and Kemba insurance. Shot almost 40% from 3 last year and started 33 games for Indy. He can certainly help this team but the bigger question is whether he is worth taking on Turner’s contract. The answer to that question is almost certainly “no”, which is why we’re at an impasse. Ainge may also feel like Pritchard can step in right away, which would make Holiday a lot less valuable to us.

Warren would be a huge help but just can’t see it happening. This is going to be interesting to follow. My guess is Ainge is working on alternate S&T options to get some leverage.
 

Dick Pole Upside

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$100 million in Indianapolis goes a lot farther than the same in NYC (or Boston). Plus a smaller microscope. I don't blame him at all in pushing Indy.
tldr: Hayward would be beyond miserable in (basketball) New York.

I lived in Fishers, IN for 14 years (2003-2016). Forget about Cost of Living Index; the incremental Cost of Misery Index going from Boston to New York (I lived in Fairfield County the five years preceding the move to Indy) and the Celtics to the Knicks is exponential relative to Fishers/Indy. Gordon and his family will immensely enjoy going home. Brownsburg, where he grew up, is on the west side of Indy; Fishers is to the northeast. The high schools play in the same conference, and I was able to see Hayward come through the gym in his high school years prior to matriculating at Butler.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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feels like a gulf between holiday and warren. warren is a guy who i think can really help. holiday...eh

I'd probably rather keep hayward than deal for turner / holiday
I understand that Ainge may want to hold out for a HR.

If Pritchard doesn't budge, what can Ainge offer in addition to Hayward to get Turner + Warren?

Next year's 1st? If that's too much, a much lesser-valued asset like Edwards?
 

lovegtm

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I understand that Ainge may want to hold out for a HR.

If Pritchard doesn't budge, what can Ainge offer in addition to Hayward to get Turner + Warren?

Next year's 1st? If that's too much, a much lesser-valued asset like Edwards?
It might end up going the other direction: Indy kicks in assets to make Turner’s contract more palatable.

I doubt Indy budges on Warren, since trading him destroys the whole purpose of going all-in on Hayward.
 

Bernie Carbohydrate

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Over at the Sons of Steve Stipanovich they think Miles Turner is the bee's knees:

We have no need to send picks to the Celtics. Myles is ridiculously more valuable to the Celtics than Hayward. They’ve been craving a player with Myles’ skill set for years.
We would be dumb to give up more than Myles and salary filler. In fact they should give us a pick for getting Myles back. Gordon is a UFA and Boston has little leverage.
Another idea would be for the Celtics to trade us Gordon and Smart for Victor, Doug, and Myles. Then we flip Smart to the Kings for Buddy Hield.
I'm going quiet then coming back with Oladipo, McDermott + 2022 1st Round Pick for Hayward. If Ainge wants to be a dick about a guy they don't need well we ain't giving him a guy that he needs.
It is a fun read--they are terrified that Ainge is going to snooker Pritchard.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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If the Pacers are offering 4/$100M, the Celtics need to take back at least $22.5M for this year, correct?

Would the Celtics be willing to offer GH 4/$90M? Would GH take it?
I’m not sure on the math, so someone point out where I’m going wrong, but my understanding is that at $100 million over four years, the first year salary is about $23.2 million, accounting for 5% increases each year (can’t do 8% in a sign and trade, even with Bird rights). So under the 125% plus $100K matching rule, the Pacers would need to send out at least $18.48 million to make it work. Does that sound right?

Edit: or, since the Pacers would be below the tax line, the salaries have to be within $5 million, so about $18.2 million in outgoing salary?
 

greek_gawd_of_walks

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Indy has little in the way of making the Turner contract more palatable imo. They only possess their own draft picks in the near future. If you feel confident that the Pacers will fall off in two or three years a first rounder coupled with Turner and Holiday may be your thing.

The dream really is Pritchard blinking and giving in on Warren. I just can't believe that will happen. At that point, Holiday is the next best target. He is under contract for the next two years potentially with the team option. With Walker's balky knee still a big part of the Celts future, quality back up guards should be just as big. Holiday looks poised to be that at minimum, albeit undersized. He and Pritchard could be a competent tandem going forward for them.

I've decided that Holiday is the middle ground Danny has to hold for. If he can get a pick out of it, or even the right to swap picks a few years out (if you think the Pacers are going to be a mid-late lottery team within three/four years) that would be gravy. None of this McDermott/Lamb bullshit.
 
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DJnVa

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Over at the Sons of Steve Stipanovich they think Miles Turner is the bee's knees:

Gordon is a UFA and Boston has little leverage.
Is that guy aware that Indiana has even less leverage there because they can't sign him as FA? Or am I missing something?

Yes, the Celtics could lose him for nothing, but he's not going to Indiana in that case. The ONLY way he can get there is if the Celtics want him help.
 

amfox1

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I've decided that Holiday is the middle ground Danny has to hold for. If he can get a pick out of it, or even the right to swap picks a few years out (if you think the Pacers are going to be a mid-late lottery team within three/four years) that would be gravy. None of this McDermott/Lamb bullshit.
My proposed trades:

1)
IND trades Turner ($18mm), Warren ($12mm)
BOS trades Hayward ($23.2mm 1st year under new 3-4 yr contract), Langford ($3.65mm), Edwards ($1.5mm), Green ($1.5mm)

2)
IND trades Turner ($18mm), A.Holiday ($2.35mm), TJ Leaf ($4.3mm)
BOS trades Hayward ($23.2mm 1st year under new 3-4 yr contract), Edwards ($1.5mm)

3)
IND trades Turner ($18mm), McDermott ($7.35mm), 2021 1st round pick swap (top-10 protected)
BOS trades Hayward ($23.2mm 1st year under new 3-4 yr contract), Edwards ($1.5mm)
 

Cellar-Door

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I wonder if this ends up as a 3 team trade with McDermott going to a team that needs shooting.
I know MIL looked at him before the deadline last year supposedly., something like Donte could be more palatable.
 

lovegtm

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The fact that the whole league has filled up cap space is a pretty big deal--it's hard for many teams to make room for a $25M contract even with Atlanta facilitating.

The Celtics look set to either squeeze Indy or else re-sign Hayward for ~4/95, which is a very very tradeable contract.
 

teddykgb

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Aside from the mechanics of leverage is there any reason why we shouldn’t be interested in McDermott? In a world where our new draft pick is ready maybe he’s redundant but we were pretty desperate for a guy who can shoot. Isn’t he kind of a good option for us?
 

lovegtm

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Aside from the mechanics of leverage is there any reason why we shouldn’t be interested in McDermott? In a world where our new draft pick is ready maybe he’s redundant but we were pretty desperate for a guy who can shoot. Isn’t he kind of a good option for us?
He's just really really bad at D. If he were competent, we'd be all over it (but he probably wouldn't be available). I'm not totally against it personally, but I haven't actually watched him a ton, that's just my impression.
 

PedroKsBambino

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To me Turner, Oladipo, A Holiday, and McDermott all have some value to Celts. Likely ends up one of first two and one of second two with picks balancing value
 

BigSoxFan

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Aside from the mechanics of leverage is there any reason why we shouldn’t be interested in McDermott? In a world where our new draft pick is ready maybe he’s redundant but we were pretty desperate for a guy who can shoot. Isn’t he kind of a good option for us?
In a vacuum, he’d fit ok on the bench but he’s an expiring contract with minimal future value so you’re basically helping an EC rival get better and taking a bad contract in Turner that hurts your future flexibility for a marginal role player. Not enough value.
 

Cellar-Door

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Aside from the mechanics of leverage is there any reason why we shouldn’t be interested in McDermott? In a world where our new draft pick is ready maybe he’s redundant but we were pretty desperate for a guy who can shoot. Isn’t he kind of a good option for us?
I think he wouldn't play for us, and is just an expiring, but we don't have roster space, so you're cutting a player more likely to play in order to carry him. Danny seems to want contributors in this deal with multi-year contracts to make a 2-3 year run before Kemba is gone (or traded).
 

JakeRae

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Aside from the mechanics of leverage is there any reason why we shouldn’t be interested in McDermott? In a world where our new draft pick is ready maybe he’s redundant but we were pretty desperate for a guy who can shoot. Isn’t he kind of a good option for us?
He’s not good. He is a good shooter, but bad at the rest of offense and also doesn’t get off enough threes to make up for his other deficiencies. He’s just bad at everything else. He makes 4 times what he is worth.
 

lovegtm

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He’s not good. He is a good shooter, but bad at the rest of offense and also doesn’t get off enough threes to make up for his other deficiencies. He’s just bad at everything else. He makes 4 times what he is worth.
Man, I just looked at his 3PA numbers. Shockingly low. That's a hard pass.
 

Jimbodandy

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This is going to be interesting to follow. My guess is Ainge is working on alternate S&T options to get some leverage.
It really depends on what GH will sign obviously, but more options can't hurt.

I'm with Baynes Hogan on this and anyone else who thinks that Pritchard is in the weakest position here.

The only scenarios that are bad for the Celtics involve bad trades with Indy. Every other permutation has some upside.

The only scenario that is bad for Gordon are a FA deal with the Knicks, imho. Still has upside ($).

Pritchard has a logjam at big, financial pressure to avoid the tax, and apparently a mandate to reach the 8 seed every year (i.e. no "process"). All of this will conflict with his pathological need to be the smartest guy in the room.
 

teddykgb

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I think he wouldn't play for us, and is just an expiring, but we don't have roster space, so you're cutting a player more likely to play in order to carry him. Danny seems to want contributors in this deal with multi-year contracts to make a 2-3 year run before Kemba is gone (or traded).
I understand the value part of it but why wouldn’t he play? We just lost a playoff series to a team playing multiple guys they hid on D at the bottom of a zone and completely stifled our offense as we had nobody who could shoot them out of it and force them into man. I don’t think he’d be a starter but he’s an NBA player with a real skill we could use
 

Cellar-Door

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I understand the value part of it but why wouldn’t he play? We just lost a playoff series to a team playing multiple guys they hid on D at the bottom of a zone and completely stifled our offense as we had nobody who could shoot them out of it and force them into man. I don’t think he’d be a starter but he’s an NBA player with a real skill we could use
Maybe, I just don't think Ainge sees him as someone who would play. He's a PF who can't be part of our defense at all given how we switch. And on offense he's a good stationary shooter, but not much else. It's especially true if you're bringing in Turner already as a 3 point shooting Big. The number of lineups and minutes I could see McDermott playing in are really limited given how much we want to play the Jays at PF.
 

Cesar Crespo

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The more I think about it, the more I think it's going to just be Hayward for Oladipo, and Indiana will move Turner somewhere else.

If Oladipo is back, he isn't resigning with the Pacers. The Celtics would basically just get another year to decide what to do with the slot (Hayward/Oladipo).
 

Cellar-Door

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The more I think about it, the more I think it's going to just be Hayward for Oladipo, and Indiana will move Turner somewhere else.

If Oladipo is back, he isn't resigning with the Pacers. The Celtics would basically just get another year to decide what to do with the slot (Hayward/Oladipo).
Dangerous game to play given how many more teams will have cap space.

Also I think Dipo is cooked.
 
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