Game 2 Mia, goats

[Deathofthebambino]

My only objection is that I believe we can look at the guy independent of what he has as well. If Mac is provided weapons, very good coaching and a good OL, I'm sure he would be much better than he is today, the offense would score points and the team would be better off. But just like the 49ers with Jimmy (and I suspect the Dolphins with Tua as well), it could very well happen that said offense is great, efficient, and then it comes a time in the playoffs that your guy needs to make plays and he can't. And then you have a wagon with a representative QB who's not a difference maker and his play isn't the difference between going 8-9 and making the playoffs, but the difference between winning a conference championship and losing it.

If the weapons are taken as a given, if the team provides that, then the QB is in focus. I'll agree that the whole "take a bunch of mediocre/bad receivers and transform them into an elite unit" creed is very likely bullshit, or at least so rare that it shouldn't be expected of any one. I just think there's still a major difference between "fine QB with great weapons" and "great QB with great weapons". They should do whatever they can to provide the weapons, sure, I just don't think so far Mac has shown me a spark of being the latter. Which you could argue only heightens the need to invest on that side of the ball, but I just believe we don't need to wait for the perfect context to materialize around him to make a determination on who he is.

I don't really care much about the "oh, he'd be right there with Tua in passer rating if he had Tua's receivers" stuff. I don't think Tua is all that great. Lamar didn't have great numbers these past few years with all the injuries the Ravens had on offense and the lack of receivers to begin with, and Greg Roman calling terrible plays, I still thought he was a difference maker for them every week, even if the ANY/A didn't look great. Same with Mahomes to start this year. I think you can tell. Now, I'll agree the Patriots are better at QB than they are at receiver, so it's pretty obvious which one is in need of an upgrade.

I guess with respect to the first paragraph, what QB's in the NFL can you say that about outside of Mahomes (maybe Allen and Burrow, but they haven't gotten over the hump yet either).

I think when you have a defense as good as this one, and a coach that's the best of all time, you get into the playoffs and try to make some noise. I don't think any team has the luxury of hitting the next Brady/Mahomes/Manning, whereas we watched a guy like Eli win two titles as an above average at best QB. Get to the dance and anything can happen, but if you never give Mac anything to work with, the dance will never happen.

Shit, I'd sign up for a loss in the conference championship right now for this season and the next 5 years. Making and winning the Super Bowl is ridiculously hard, that's why guys like Aaron Rodgers have only done it once.

 

[Toe Nash]

I agree with a lot of what's been posted about having weapons outside of QB, but I would ask...how do we get those weapons? Hill cost 5 picks including a first and second, AJ Brown was a first and third, Smith and Waddle were drafted 6th overall, the Bengals receivers were high picks, etc. I guess Diggs was a reasonable trade, but all these guys got big deals as well.

It's going to be the same long rebuilding process or going to cost a lot of draft capital that BB has rarely been willing to give up whether we look for a new QB or a great WR to help him out. These players rarely reach free agency and they're rarely drafted in the teens or later.

Maybe they can get Mike Evans next year? But he's getting up there.

 

[Shelterdog]

receivers are very valuable, if you include tight ends they're playing ballpark 36 percent of your offensive snaps/18 percent of your offensive and defensive snaps, so, ballpark figures I think you'd like to see one drafted in the top two rounds every two years (25 percent or more of your two top rounds of picks)--and possibly a little more if you're set at other higher value positions. I'm not sure they're so valuable that the Brown/Waddle trades are worth it long term for a franchise but I think you should be adding players at that position pretty steadily.

Of course we're drafting Joe Alt in the first this year.

 

[SMU_Sox]

The most valuable non-QB contract is a stud WR on a rookie deal. You draft these guys or you suffer either have to trade big and then pay big or trade small for a highly paid distressed asset like Cooper.

I've had this conversation with @Shelterdog and @Super Nomario and it's boiled down to: I have some concerns that Bill doesn't know what traits to look for in a WR early in the draft but it's such a SSS over a long time I couldn't prove it and it might be bunk even thinking about it.

We have the speed quote from Groh and Bill's observation about Baldwin vs Julio Jones as well as who they have historically taken. But yeah the plural of anecdote is not data (or is it just a misquote?). My concern is that Bill over-values the speed-X archetype in the draft and he likes size/speed when he can get it. Harry was more of complete WR prospect who fits into the Dez Bryant//Josh-Gordon mold. A mix between speed-X and size-possession guy. He was neither though but let's not relive that.

Further complicating things is Bill doesn't like to bring in a FA with the biggest salary to the team. He might have done it a couple times... perhaps Gilmore?

I think with Mac you want to do the same thing that you are doing for Tua which was what they both had at Bama. Give them fast guys, separators, and guys who can hit you with RAC. The issue is there isn't a sucking nickels out of thin air anymore with pass-catchers. All of the archetypes are in demand and none of them come at a discount anymore. There really isn't an inefficiency you can exploit with pass catchers. The best way to solve it is to keep taking shots at it just like the Steelers, 49ers, and Eagles do. The guys Tua and Mac threw to all went top 12.

I am not sure if trading large assets is the best strategy. I also don't believe in over-drafting a position minus you absolutely should account for WR positional value both from a budget perspective and an EPA one. Also, offenses are stickier year to year than defenses.

Luckily this is a potential great class for WRs. It's also a great class for OTs. I would hope the positions match their draft slots this year vs last year.

If you are curious about some of the WRs this year check out Ohio State, Florida State, Washington, and LSU on Saturdays.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Lol @Shelterdog - same same.

Edit: also a little eerie I was typing up this paperback post mentioning you while you had posted and I didn't refresh.

 

[Shelterdog]

Lol @Shelterdog - same same.

Edit: also a little eerie I was typing up this paperback post mentioning you while you had posted and I didn't refresh.

It’s cool @SMU_Sox I can tell I was there in spirit. I dont subscribe to the belief that BB is bad at picking receivers-he’s pretty great at picking them in lower rounds-but I do think his standards are either a little high or his drafting doesn’t respect the positional value. (When he does miss he usually misses with a very fast guy so perhaps he overrates that attribute, by then again SSS). Market price for a top receiver really is goi g up past twenty million a year so there’s an upside there with a guy on a rookie deal that you only get at QB or elite pass rusher.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Also the all-22 is out and that first half is dreadful.

I thought the OL looked horrendous live but the replay is somehow even worse. You can tell these guys are not in sync with each other at all. Stunts, twists, loopers, blitzers… none of them are getting picked up. And then on the other side you have run blocking. They ran a lot of duo which is two combo blocks downhill and inside zone. They had split zone in there too and it just didn’t create creases. When your bounce, bang, and bend are all bad options you’re fucked.

In particular though it’s so discouraging to see Cole Strange right now. The same shit with his use of hands shows up. The same lunging that gets him pulled down shows up. It’s his first game back but these kinds of issues are the ones you work on during the off-season with an independent coach. I’m definitely giving him a pass but it’s still concerning to see the worst of his technique on display coming back.

The only blockers I liked in the run game were Onwenu on most concepts and Onwenu and Anderson had some nice combos.
Matt and I (guy I watch it with) were consistently asking ourselves where the hell is the second level blocking from the OL? But that’s what being in sync is. Remember early on that 2nd and 1 or 2 where the Fins got penetration and blew up Rham from behind the LOS? That was a failed combo and upfield block. Andrews and Strange tried to move 92 upfield and then Andrews went for the ILB. Strange couldn’t then take the blocker as part of his reach block. The issue was he didn’t get over laterally enough. His upper body and lower body weren’t in sync at all and he was not moving the right way. Rust? Ok. He should get better. I’m not dumping on Strange to say he’s hopeless just that, understandably, his first live action was a disaster.

 

[8slim]

Also the all-22 is out and that first half is dreadful.

I thought the OL looked horrendous live but the replay is somehow even worse. You can tell these guys are not in sync with each other at all. Stunts, twists, loopers, blitzers… none of them are getting picked up. And then on the other side you have run blocking. They ran a lot of duo which is two combo blocks downhill and inside zone. They had split zone in there too and it just didn’t create creases. When your bounce, bang, and bend are all bad options you’re fucked.

In particular though it’s so discouraging to see Cole Strange right now. The same shit with his use of hands shows up. The same lunging that gets him pulled down shows up. It’s his first game back but these kinds of issues are the ones you work on during the off-season with an independent coach. I’m definitely giving him a pass but it’s still concerning to see the worst of his technique on display coming back.

The only blockers I liked in the run game were Onwenu on most concepts and Onwenu and Anderson had some nice combos.
Matt and I (guy I watch it with) were consistently asking ourselves where the hell is the second level blocking from the OL? But that’s what being in sync is. Remember early on that 2nd and 1 or 2 where the Fins got penetration and blew up Rham from behind the LOS? That was a failed combo and upfield block. Andrews and Strange tried to move 92 upfield and then Andrews went for the ILB. Strange couldn’t then take the blocker as part of his reach block. The issue was he didn’t get over laterally enough. His upper body and lower body weren’t in sync at all and he was not moving the right way. Rust? Ok. He should get better. I’m not dumping on Strange to say he’s hopeless just that, understandably, his first live action was a disaster.

Incredibly illuminating post, thanks!

I’m far more bearish on Strange. I think he’s a bust. Maybe he can claw his way up to “slightly below average” this season. But chances are he’ll be hurt again before he can do that.

 

[lexrageorge]

Incredibly illuminating post, thanks!

I’m far more bearish on Strange. I think he’s a bust. Maybe he can claw his way up to “slightly below average” this season. But chances are he’ll be hurt again before he can do that.

He was decent his rookie year; probably just around league average. And he started all 17 games. Seems unlikely for him to be that bad, or that injured.

 

[Mugsy’s Walk-Off Bunt]

If Strange had been Logan Mankins-level good, that would be nice, but it still feels like an AWFUL decision for a first round pick (when TB12 isn't your QB1.) I can't believe how shitty the weapons around Mac are. He's on a rookie contract. NOW is when you get him the weapons.

 

[Justthetippett]

If Strange had been Logan Mankins-level good, that would be nice, but it still feels like an AWFUL decision for a first round pick (when TB12 isn't your QB1.) I can't believe how shitty the weapons around Mac are. He's on a rookie contract. NOW is when you get him the weapons.

It looks like they had two egregious overreaches in Strange and Thornton. Unless something drastic happens those are just two horrible picks. They had the right idea to invest in the OL (look at Detriot) and WR positions, but they did it badly.

 

[BaseballJones]

If Strange had been Logan Mankins-level good, that would be nice, but it still feels like an AWFUL decision for a first round pick (when TB12 isn't your QB1.) I can't believe how shitty the weapons around Mac are. He's on a rookie contract. NOW is when you get him the weapons.

I don't understand how people say he's got these godawful weapons. Hunter Henry is a perfectly fine NFL TE. Gesicki is a good receiving TE. Bourne had two perfectly fine seasons as a WR back-to-back in 2020-2021 (catching passes from Garoppolo, Nick Mullens, CJ Beathard, and a rookie Mac Jones). He's a solid NFL receiver. So is Parker, who, from 2019-2020 had 135 receptions for 1,995 yds (14.8 avg) and 13 touchdowns (his QB in 2020 was Ryan Fitzpatrick, he of the 85.5 passer rating that year, so it's not like he had Brady or Mahomes throwing to him). He's perfectly fine as an NFL receiver. Stevenson is good coming out of the backfield.

What they don't have is a true WR1. That changes everything.

 

[SMU_Sox]

It’s not so much that each individual receiver is bad. It’s that when you have their main group of Parked, HH, Bourne, and JJSS on the field at once you have no juice. No explosiveness. You have schematic limitations especially with this OL. You can’t count on any of those guys to consistently win and make plays. Bourne was playing with a loaded roster and got great matchups. When you expand his role and let him run the vertical portions of the Z stems he’s a lot less consistent. He’s also a WR3 at best.

Why are you going back to 2019-2020 for Parker? You think with all the injuries he’s the same guy at 30 as he was at 26? He had more yards in 2019 than he did in 2021 and 2022 combined.

Henry is a good tight end. Gesicki is an ok rotational receiver. Henry though isn’t going to give you 800+ yards. He’s going to give you 500-700 which is good for a TE but the distance between a good TE and a great one is a wide chasm. He is a complimentary receiving option in an offense of complimentary receiving options.

I do think the offense will be a lot more functional and closer to mid when the line gets healthy. But these guys won’t take you from mid to good or great or elite.

Think about what the Bills did with Allen and Diggs, the Eagles did with Slim and AJB, the Falcons are doing with London, Pitts, and Bijan for whomever they eventually get, Burrow with Chase and Higgins, Goff with Kupp and Cooks, Purdy with his cast, etc. Now compare what those rookie QBs had with their OLs and pass catchers to Mac. Then you can just look at each teams rosters for pass catchers too and compare. I did. Yeah it’s bad. Like 6-7th worst bad. I mean right now your most explosive weapon and your best receiver has been a 6th round rookie out of Liberty University. Doesn’t that at all tell you that the other guys aren’t that good?

 

[BigSoxFan]

It’s not so much that each individual receiver is bad. It’s that when you have their main group of Parked, HH, Bourne, and JJSS on the field at once you have no juice. No explosiveness. You have schematic limitations especially with this OL. You can’t count on any of those guys to consistently win and make plays. Bourne was playing with a loaded roster and got great matchups. When you expand his role and let him run the vertical portions of the Z stems he’s a lot less consistent. He’s also a WR3 at best.

Why are you going back to 2019-2020 for Parker? You think with all the injuries he’s the same guy at 30 as he was at 26? He had more yards in 2019 than he did in 2021 and 2022 combined.

Henry is a good tight end. Gesicki is an ok rotational receiver. Henry though isn’t going to give you 800+ yards. He’s going to give you 500-700 which is good for a TE but the distance between a good TE and a great one is a wide chasm. He is a complimentary receiving option in an offense of complimentary receiving options.

I do think the offense will be a lot more functional and closer to mid when the line gets healthy. But these guys won’t take you from mid to good or great or elite.

Think about what the Bills did with Allen and Diggs, the Eagles did with Slim and AJB, the Falcons are doing with London, Pitts, and Bijan for whomever they eventually get, Burrow with Chase and Higgins, Goff with Kupp and Cooks, Purdy with his cast, etc. Now compare what those rookie QBs had with their OLs and pass catchers to Mac. Then you can just look at each teams rosters for pass catchers too and compare. I did. Yeah it’s bad. Like 6-7th worst bad. I mean right now your most explosive weapon and your best receiver has been a 6th round rookie out of Liberty University. Doesn’t that at all tell you that the other guys aren’t that good?

Agreed. There simply aren't many teams with less explosive pass catchers than the Patriots. The point isn't that Henry, Bourne, Parker, JuJu are "bad", per se, it's that none of them create matchup issues for defensive coordinators, which forces our offense to execute at a really high level. And, as we've seen for a while now....they don't. The lack of a true top receiving option is a hindrance to this offense. Doesn't mean you can't construct a decent offense without one but there is a cap to the team's offensive upside until they find one. And the OL being bad is certainly another mitigating factor.

 

[Shelterdog]

If Strange had been Logan Mankins-level good, that would be nice, but it still feels like an AWFUL decision for a first round pick (when TB12 isn't your QB1.) I can't believe how shitty the weapons around Mac are. He's on a rookie contract. NOW is when you get him the weapons.

So just in terms of tactics iIts not like there was (other than breese hall) a weapon drafted between strange and Thornton whom you’d really want to have picked; there wasn’t great offensive skill talent in the early second.

What kills you is a Thornton was bad and right after him Pierce seems decent and Pickens is pretty awesome. And every dumbass who watches one college game a year (ok I watch maybe ten) can say I told you so they should have taken the big fast guy from Georgia who I saw catch the ball once.

 

[BaseballJones]

If this team had a true number one receiver, like Tyreek Hill, or Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs, you know, the guys we all point to as elevating their quarterbacks, then the rest of the receiving corps would look hell of a lot better. Additionally, I think this group would look just fine with, say, Justin Herbert, throwing to them.

 

[Jimbodandy]

If this team had a true number one receiver, like Tyreek Hill, or Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs, you know, the guys we all point to as elevating their quarterbacks, then the rest of the receiving corps would look hell of a lot better. Additionally, I think this group would look just fine with, say, Justin Herbert, throwing to them.

I think that these receivers with this OL would look bad with Herbert throwing to them. I still have hope that the OL will come together over the next month, but the receivers are what they are.

 

[BigSoxFan]

So just in terms of tactics iIts not like there was (other than breese hall) a weapon drafted between strange and Thornton whom you’d really want to have picked; there wasn’t great offensive skill talent in the early second.

What kills you is a Thornton was bad and right after him Pierce seems decent and Pickens is pretty awesome. And every dumbass who watches one college game a year (ok I watch maybe ten) can say I told you so they should have taken the big fast guy from Georgia who I saw catch the ball once.

Kenneth Walker and Christian Watson would be useful pieces for this offense. Obviously, Hall would as well as you mentioned.

 

[Shelterdog]

Kenneth Walker and Christian Watson would be useful pieces for this offense. Obviously, Hall would as well as you mentioned.

Not sure using a first on a running back is a great move for this team at this time.

Watson has talent and is a real NFl player but I don't think he's a great fit for the Pats.

 

[Jungleland]

I'm not convinced Watson is as good as he looked for that absolutely epic month last season - even bad Rodgers was still Rodgers, there wasn't a ton of real competition for targets, and he's been pretty ineffective and/or hurt otherwise - but he has the house it on any given play ability no one on this roster does unless Thornton or Boutte return from injury and benching much stronger than they've looked in their opportunities so far.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Not sure using a first on a running back is a great move for this team at this time.

Watson has talent and is a real NFl player but I don't think he's a great fit for the Pats.

Yeah, truthfully, the Strange pick doesn’t bother me that much because his draft just wasn’t very strong. This wasn’t like the N’Keal draft where you could basically throw a dart and find a better player. You look at round 2 that year and it’s mostly “meh”. Even Pickens doesn’t really move the needle. Would I rather him over TT? Sure. But he wouldn’t transform the offense or anything.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Not sure using a first on a running back is a great move for this team at this time.

Watson has talent and is a real NFl player but I don't think he's a great fit for the Pats.

yeah, that;s the thing to me, Walker would be a bad pick given roster, Watson.... he's a lot like Tyquan, and his developing well in GB doesn't mean he would if you flip them.
Pickens is an interesting one, in that I don't think he brings the speed that they wanted. Pickens NFL tape is great, but it's a LOT of no-separation catches. Basically what they hoped Harry would be, he goes up and gets it, but he gets no separation in general. He's got a lot of Davante Parker in him, never really open, still catches almost everything.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

yeah, that;s the thing to me, Walker would be a bad pick given roster, Watson.... he's a lot like Tyquan, and his developing well in GB doesn't mean he would if you flip them.
Pickens is an interesting one, in that I don't think he brings the speed that they wanted. Pickens NFL tape is great, but it's a LOT of no-separation catches. Basically what they hoped Harry would be, he goes up and gets it, but he gets no separation in general. He's got a lot of Davante Parker in him, never really open, still catches almost everything.

I agree with you on the tape, but Pickens is so, so much better than Parker, they aren't even in the same stratosphere.

Parker has a catch % for his career of 58.7. Pickens is pretty close at 60.4% (61.9% as a rookie). The big difference between the two is how they make their QB's better. When Pickens was targeted last year, his QB had a rating of 109.3. Parker has never had a season in which his QB had a rating above 98.5, and his next two best are 90.0 and 90.6. Not including this season, his quarterback has been picked off 11 times when they look Parker's way (each has one this year).

To put these in perspective among the great receivers:

Adams has a catch % of 64.6%, and his QB's have had ratings between 95.5 and 136.0 (he's only had two seasons below 115).

Jefferson is 68.7% and his QB ratings range from 104.2 to 118.7 so far this year.

Tyreek his 68.4% and his ratings range from 101.3 to 129.1.

Diggs is 69.6% and his ratings are from 95.5 (only season below 102.2) and 120.3.

AJ Brown is only 62.3, but his QB ratings by season are 127.6, 126.1, 94.5 and 112.3.

Having guys that you can throw 100+ targets to, and know you'll get a 100+ QB rating on those throws is well, fucking awesome.

 

[Saints Rest]

Also the all-22 is out and that first half is dreadful.

I thought the OL looked horrendous live but the replay is somehow even worse. You can tell these guys are not in sync with each other at all. Stunts, twists, loopers, blitzers… none of them are getting picked up. And then on the other side you have run blocking. They ran a lot of duo which is two combo blocks downhill and inside zone. They had split zone in there too and it just didn’t create creases. When your bounce, bang, and bend are all bad options you’re fucked.

In particular though it’s so discouraging to see Cole Strange right now. The same shit with his use of hands shows up. The same lunging that gets him pulled down shows up. It’s his first game back but these kinds of issues are the ones you work on during the off-season with an independent coach. I’m definitely giving him a pass but it’s still concerning to see the worst of his technique on display coming back.

The only blockers I liked in the run game were Onwenu on most concepts and Onwenu and Anderson had some nice combos.
Matt and I (guy I watch it with) were consistently asking ourselves where the hell is the second level blocking from the OL? But that’s what being in sync is. Remember early on that 2nd and 1 or 2 where the Fins got penetration and blew up Rham from behind the LOS? That was a failed combo and upfield block. Andrews and Strange tried to move 92 upfield and then Andrews went for the ILB. Strange couldn’t then take the blocker as part of his reach block. The issue was he didn’t get over laterally enough. His upper body and lower body weren’t in sync at all and he was not moving the right way. Rust? Ok. He should get better. I’m not dumping on Strange to say he’s hopeless just that, understandably, his first live action was a disaster.

Hey, @SMU_Sox, I really appreciate all your high-level insight that you share with us plebs here. RE: Onwenu. Any idea what happened to him that he was replaced? Fitness? Injury? Or quality of play?

 

[SMU_Sox]

Hey, @SMU_Sox, I really appreciate all your high-level insight that you share with us plebs here. RE: Onwenu. Any idea what happened to him that he was replaced? Fitness? Injury? Or quality of play?

All fitness related. They ease their guys coming back from injury in slowly especially OL. He’s still probably a month away from being in game peak game shape.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Miami just dropped 70. Retroactively, I think we can feel a little better about holding them to 24.

 

[Jinhocho]

Miami just dropped 70. Retroactively, I think we can feel a little better about holding them to 24.

I think the issue is that this team can hold pretty good Offenses to 20 to low 30 points, but the combo of Mac Jones and the rest of our offense is unlikely to score 25 or more very much.

 

[BaseballJones]

I think the issue is that this team can hold pretty good Offenses to 20 to low 30 points, but the combo of Mac Jones and the rest of our offense is unlikely to score 25 or more very much.

I think that's exactly it. It's a problem for sure. One of the related issues is that the offense isn't likely to be much help to the offense, even in terms of possessing the ball and keeping NE's defense off the field. They have to spend a lot of time defending because the offense tends to give the ball back quickly.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

I think that's exactly it. It's a problem for sure. One of the related issues is that the offense isn't likely to be much help to the offense, even in terms of possessing the ball and keeping NE's defense off the field. They have to spend a lot of time defending because the offense tends to give the ball back quickly.

The Pats had 31:52 TOP today

Last week, they had 29:41

Week one, they had 29:12.

The Pats offense hasn't exactly been handing the ball back after a ton of 3 and outs. The offense has been on the field for 45 seconds more than the defense through 3 weeks.

 

[BaseballJones]

The Pats had 31:52 TOP today

Last week, they had 29:41

Week one, they had 29:12.

The Pats offense hasn't exactly been handing the ball back after a ton of 3 and outs. The offense has been on the field for 45 seconds more than the defense through 3 weeks.

New England Possessions this year

Vs. Phi
7 plays, 34 yards, 2:46, int
1 play, 0 yards, 0:08, fumble
3 plays, 1 yard, 0:50, punt
3 plays, 3 yards, 1:26, punt
3 plays, 5 yards, 1:19, punt
10 plays, 71 yards, 4:48, TD
6 plays, 63 yards, 2:08, TD
3 plays, 6 yards, 1:17, punt
13 plays, 32 yards, 6:05, punt
10 plays, 58 yards, 3:49, turnover on downs
6 plays, 75 yards, 1:56, TD
4 plays, -7 yards, 1:08, turnover on downs
9 plays, 36 yards, 1:32, turnover on downs

Vs. Mia
8 plays, 21 yards, 4:47, punt
8 plays, 46 yards, 3:00, fumble
6 plays, 10 yards, 2:57, punt
10 plays, 35 yards, 3:55, FG
1 play, -1 yard, 0:11, end of half
5 plays, 18 yards, 2:57, punt
8 plays, 27 yards, 2:40, INT
8 plays, 58 yards, 3:26, TD
3 plays, -10 yards, 1:05, punt
9 plays, 75 yards, 3:20, TD
6 plays, 25 yards, 1:23, turnover on downs

Vs. NYJ
7 plays, 29 yards, 2:37, FG
4 plays, 19 yards, 2:05, punt
8 plays, 37 yards, 3:11, missed FG
4 plays, 78 yards, 2:09, TD
6 plays, 17 yards, 2:27, punt
8 plays, 36 yards, 1:21, missed FG
10 plays, 42 yards, 4:34, FG
3 plays, 12 yards, 2:52, punt
6 plays, 17 yards, 2:50, punt
6 plays, 32 yards, 3:27, punt
5 plays, 25 yards, 2:40, punt
3 plays, 7 yards, 0:36, punt
3 plays, 7 yards, 1:03, punt

So of their 36 possessions (we aren't counting the last one before the half in the Miami game), they've possessed the ball for more than 3 or more minutes in 11 of them (30.6%). They've possessed the ball for 1:30 or less in 11 of them (30.6%). So one out of three of their drives they're giving the ball back super quickly. And in 70% of their drives they're giving the ball back in less than 3 minutes' of game time. They've only had one drive all year long where they possessed the ball for at least 5 minutes.

Now to be completely fair, I'm not doing this same exercise for other teams to see how they're doing it. But the Pats' D is pretty often getting the ball back quickly for the offense, but when the offense keeps it for 1:30 or less 30% of the time, the D isn't getting tons of rest, I don't think. But again, maybe this distribution is what's normal in the league.

(I've read an older stat that said that the average possession in the NFL lasted 2:39, but that was in 2009; not sure what it is today.)

 

[Traut]

I think the issue is that this team can hold pretty good Offenses to 20 to low 30 points, but the combo of Mac Jones and the rest of our offense is unlikely to score 25 or more very much.

Watching the game today, I'm more optimistic about this team than I was before the season. I think they can get to 9--8.

The Jets defense is good. The O-Line held up today. They moved the ball. They retained possession. And made some plays. Yeah they missed some too but all and all some cause for optimism unless the Jets defense proves to be overrated.

The Pats defense looked very good. Granted Zach Wilson is the worst QB ever to get as many starts as he has. But this defense is going to keep this team in games.

Game balls: Gonzalez, Judon, the O-Line

 

[Jinhocho]

Watching the game today, I'm more optimistic about this team than I was before the season. I think they can get to 9--8.

The Jets defense is good. The O-Line held up today. They moved the ball. They retained possession. And made some plays. Yeah they missed some too but all and all some cause for optimism unless the Jets defense proves to be overrated.

The Pats defense looked very good. Granted Zach Wilson is the worst QB ever to get as many starts as he has. But this defense is going to keep this team in games.

Game balls: Gonzalez, Judon, the O-Line

I guess for me I had been thinking they would be 10-7 even with the schedule. Maybe I am a homer, but I figured we would be right back around where we were with Mac in year 1, with a bit of a improvement from him and a tougher schedule.

 

[Mugsy’s Walk-Off Bunt]

If you're the Patriots staring at a GUARD as a first rounder, you trade out of the round (or take Devin Lloyd before that), then draft THE GUY EVERYONE SAID WAS A GOOD MATCH FOR THEM, George Pickens, who was there, was the safer choice than TT. I still hold out hope for Thornton, just...cuz...but, man, latter-day BB sure likes to make everyone right who used to say he "thinks he's smarter than everyone else" and "gets cute" too often. Absolutely abysmal record of choosing (or even bothering to choose) weapons for the offense.

 

[Cellar-Door]

If you're the Patriots staring at a GUARD as a first rounder, you trade out of the round (or take Devin Lloyd before that), then draft THE GUY EVERYONE SAID WAS A GOOD MATCH FOR THEM, George Pickens, who was there, was the safer choice than TT. I still hold out hope for Thornton, just...cuz...but, man, latter-day BB sure likes to make everyone right who used to say he "thinks he's smarter than everyone else" and "gets cute" too often. Absolutely abysmal record of choosing (or even bothering to choose) weapons for the offense.

Do they really need a 2nd Davante Parker?
I didn't love the Thornton pick, but the goal there was obvious, they needed speed, dynamic field tilting speed, and Thornton has that. Pickens is just another guy who makes contested catches with no separation.

Now, there is a case to be made that you take Watson where you took Strange and hope Strange is there for you in the 2nd.