FA Remains: What are the Chances?

Cassvt2023

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Jan 17, 2023
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How likely do you think the Red Sox are to sign the following remaining Free Agents as of Jan 26th?

Blake Snell
Jordan Montgomery
Clayton Kershaw
Mike Clevinger
HJ Ryu
Michael Lorenzen
Ryne Staneck
Cody Bellinger
Jorge Soler
Justin Turner
JD Martinez
Adam Duvall
Matt Chapman
Brandon Belt
Tommy Pham
 

Cassvt2023

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Jan 17, 2023
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Blake Snell 15%
Jordan Montgomery 38%
Clayton Kershaw 4%
Mike Clevinger 11%
HJ Ryu 55%
Michael Lorenzen 32%
Ryne Staneck 67%
Cody Bellinger 7%
Jorge Soler 45%
Justin Turner 27%
JD Martinez 8%
Adam Duvall 64%
Matt Chapman 9%
Brandon Belt 3%
Tommy Pham 27%
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Dec 7, 2022
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Blake Snell less than 1%
Jordan Montgomery less than 1%
Clayton Kershaw less than 1%
Mike Clevinger 2% (yuck). To be clear, I have no interest in ANY of them, but if they're going to sign Clevinger, go for Urias first, and then Bauer. If you're going to sign a scum bag, go for a) the more talented scumbags that b) at least didn't involve kids.
HJ Ryu 50%
Michael Lorenzen 50%
Ryne Staneck 75% (I can see this one happening, actually)
Cody Bellinger less than 1%
Jorge Soler 25%
Justin Turner 5% (I don't think Breslow ever has a true DH unless it's a huge difference making bat - ie prime JDM, Devers moving there type - no offense to Turner but, he's not that).
JD Martinez 0% (see above - no need for more OFs)
Adam Duvall 5% (but I really hope not; no need for more OFs)
Matt Chapman 0%
Brandon Belt 0%
Tommy Pham 5% (but again, I hope not)


I think ultimately they'll sign something that starts to a 1 year deal. Not that it matters (for 2024) but hopefully said pitcher is good enough to sell for something in July.
 
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BeantownIdaho

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Dec 5, 2005
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With the rangers signing Robertson, it put them slightly over the CBT. They just agreed to terms with Jankowski but the $$ hasn't been reported yet. Seems like the Rangers may be out on Monty. If true, what teams are left in on him and what are the chances of those teams specifically landing him?
 

nvalvo

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Blake Snell 5% — If he's offering a discount, he's presumably offering it to Seattle.
Jordan Montgomery — 50%. This one makes a ton of sense for both sides if Texas can't make a competitive offer.
Clayton Kershaw 0% — he'd likely retire before pitching for anyone other than LAD or TX, right?
Mike Clevinger 10% – I'd hate it, because he seems like a repeat-offender off-field issue/clubhouse problem dude, but he was "cleared" by the league of his worst alleged malfeasance, whatever that means.
HJ Ryu 5% — He's extremely old, but he's been okay in the AL East. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Michael Lorenzen 5% — Doesn't add much beyond depth and durability: he's like an older Pivetta with less upside.
Ryne Stanek 50% — This seems medium likely to me; dude is a darling of the new pitching intelligentsia. Presumably in that case we are trading one of our expensive relievers.
Cody Bellinger 5% — I suggested he was a plausible pillow contract offer in another thread, but the Cubs remain the most likely landing spot by far.
Jorge Soler 10% — Not the worst idea.
Justin Turner 20% — Makes some sense for both sides, but he is quite old.
JD Martinez 5% — I would imagine he wants more money than we want to spend, and Arizona seems like a better fit to me.
Adam Duvall 20% — Could be a fit for basically all the same reasons he was last season.
Matt Chapman 0% — We probably should give this some thought, but I can't see moving Devers so young.
Brandon Belt 5% — If we shook things up to such an extent that we suddenly needed to be *more* left-handed, he'd be a great LH DH/1B/OF6: tremendous on base skills and good pop that was hidden by his home park for a long time.
Tommy Pham 20% — Quietly an excellent fit for a RH DH/OF5 role. The un-Soler: not a ton of power, but a quality at bat. They don't hand out .350 career OBPs. Has a kind of competitiveness and intensity about him that seems good for the young guys to be around.

If we sign, say, Montgomery and one of the RHH (Pham, Turner, Soler or Duvall), I think I'd give this offseason really good marks.

Rotation: Montgomery, Bello, Giolito, Pivetta, Crawford – good, not great, but there's a good mixture of ceiling and floor. Winckowski, Fitts, and Walter stretched out in AAA as SP 6/7/8.
Bullpen: Jansen; Martin; Houck; Whitlock; Bernardino, Slaten, Mata, Schreiber. That's flat out good, even if you swap Jansen for Stanek or something. And there are all sorts of interesting guys behind them: Campbell, Weissert, Criswell, Troye, Murphy, Guerrero...

C: Wong, McGuire. Not broken. Roberto Perez in AAA.
IF: Devers, Story, Grissom, Casas. Potentially elite, if Story bounces back and Casas and Grissom progress. Less impressive otherwise.
OF: Yoshida, Duran, O'Neill. OK.
Bench/DH: [RHH DH/1B/LF signee], Rafaela IF/OF, Reyes IF/OF, Refsnyder 1B/OF. Abreu, Dalbec, Valdez, Hamilton, Yorke as MLB depth in AAA
 

Auger34

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Apr 23, 2010
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Snell 10%
Montgomery 75%
Turner 45%
Nobody else is even considered hopefully
I really hope that you’re right but 75% in Montgomery is pretty fucking insane. Honestly even the most optimistic can’t be over 50%.

Again, I hope you’re right but if you gambled with those odds you’d be a fool
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I really hope that you’re right but 75% in Montgomery is pretty fucking insane. Honestly even the most optimistic can’t be over 50%.

Again, I hope you’re right but if you gambled with those odds you’d be a fool
To the fool goes the spoils they say!

actually they don’t but I’m not betting
 

GB5

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Aug 26, 2013
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Does this board do a full 180 if Breslow plays the market correctly and gets Monty on a 4 year deal(or less)?
 

8slim

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For a site built on the appreciation of advanced analytics… what on Earth are these percentages supposed to mean?!
 

Cassvt2023

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For a site built on the appreciation of advanced analytics… what on Earth are these percentages supposed to mean?!
@8slim it means very little other than to keep the engagement of guys/girls here having something to talk about aside from the sniping and bitching about ownership/media/direction of the team, etc… I like a lot of your posts, so let’s just have some fun with it!.. maybe it’ll be interesting to look back on what others have to think about it and their predictions 4-6 weeks from now…after all, a bunch of the moves the team has made so far have been for the most part very lightly reported.
 

8slim

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@8slim it means very little other than to keep the engagement of guys/girls here having something to talk about aside from the sniping and bitching about ownership/media/direction of the team, etc… I like a lot of your posts, so let’s just have some fun with it!.. maybe it’ll be interesting to look back on what others have to think about it and their predictions 4-6 weeks from now…after all, a bunch of the moves the team has made so far have been for the most part very lightly reported.
Gotcha.

Well, put me down for 100% on one of those guys, and 0% for everyone else.

I just don’t know the guy they’ll sign.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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This offseason has been extremely disappointing, and for the first time I’m doubting the Fenway ownership group. I think we’ll resign Duvall. The fact that he’ll be our big get is fucking infuriating
 

Sin Duda

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@8slim it means very little other than to keep the engagement of guys/girls here having something to talk about aside from the sniping and bitching about ownership/media/direction of the team, etc… I like a lot of your posts, so let’s just have some fun with it!.. maybe it’ll be interesting to look back on what others have to think about it and their predictions 4-6 weeks from now…after all, a bunch of the moves the team has made so far have been for the most part very lightly reported.
Aaah lay lou ya!
 

jteders1

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Dec 5, 2022
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I think they have about a 25% chance of resigning Turner. Outside of that, I don't see it. They're not going to spend on a big FA, the front office has basically said so, I think we should believe them. I could see a Turner reunion if they can get him around 1/12, which is possible. We need a backup at 1st, and 3rd, who can be a DH. He's also a righty so a perfect fit. It makes sense, and he loved Boston. I think unless another team gives him multiple years, he'll end up back with the Sox. I put it at 25% because I think it's more likely than not someone ponies up for the second year. Maybe it's the snakes or the M's.
 

BeantownIdaho

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Dec 5, 2005
481
Nampa, Idaho
I have no idea where to put this, but I guess if we are talking chances.... here are the invitees to Spring Training...
"The Boston Red Sox have added 13 non-roster invitees to the team’s 2024 Spring Training roster: pitchers Luis Guerrero, Justin Hagenman, Alex Hoppe, A.J. Politi, and Chase Shugart; catchers Nathan Hickey, Mark Kolozsvary, Roberto Pérez, and Stephen Scott; infielders Chase Meidroth, Nick Sogard, and Nick Yorke; and outfielder Corey Rosier."

https://www.mlb.com/news/red-sox-select-13-non-roster-invitees-to-spring-training
 

nvalvo

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"Every indication" except everyone in and out of the industry noting that it makes sense for both sides.

Look, we know about Texas' financial woes, without which it would be pretty reasonable to expect that they would be heavily in on Montgomery. It may be that, behind the scenes, something similar has happened/is happening with FSG/NESN that means we also can't commit to a front-end starter. But I am focusing on deeds, not words. It may well be that both Montgomery and Snell ultimately do sign elsewhere, but until they do I'm going to weight this ownership group's multidecade track record of sometimes signing big-ticket FA more heavily than their recent communications, which are frankly extremely confused and ambivalent.

For a site built on the appreciation of advanced analytics… what on Earth are these percentages supposed to mean?!
They are a yardstick fore representing people's expectations. They aren't based on much of anything beyond that.
 

OCD SS

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Should be 0%:
  • Blake Snell (if his price would drop to the point where the Sox would grab him, he’d just go to Seattle.)
  • Clayton Kershaw
  • Mike Clevinger
  • Michael Lorenzen
  • Cody Bellinger
  • JD Martinez
  • Matt Chapman
  • Brandon Belt
  • Tommy Pham
Of the players left, looking for a RH bat:
  • Justin Turner: 35% on a 1 year deal- he fills in as a decent 1B/ 3B backup + DH
  • Adam Duvall: 20% - the OF is pretty crowded, but if Snell goes to Sea. & they deal pitching to the Sox, then we’ve probably lost an OFer or two.
  • Jorge Soler: 10% - he’s a DH, playing him on defense seems like a bad idea.
Which brings us to the pitching:
  • Jordan Montgomery: 25% if I’m squinting at the tea leaves and being optimistic? If it happens it will be because the Dox stick to an existing offer and wait out Boras for a lack of suitors.
  • HJ Ryu: 15% - he’d basically be a depth arm
  • Ryne Staneck:10 - 20% (edit): another depth arm, but not a starter now, I guess you have to go higher for his connections to Boston?
 
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Hank Scorpio

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I personally think a lot of these are too high, especially now... I can't buy say "20% on Snell, 50% on Montgomery" - when that's really saying 70% chance we get at least one of the two... it's much, much less in my opinion...

Any one of the below: ~25% More than one of the below: <1%
Blake Snell: ~1%
Jordan Montgomery: 5%
Clayton Kershaw: 2.5%
Mike Clevinger: 2%
HJ Ryu: 7%
Michael Lorenzen: 7%

Ryne Staneck: 25%

Any one of the below: ~30% More than one of the below: <1%

Cody Bellinger: ~1%
Jorge Soler: 8%
Justin Turner: 8%
JD Martinez: ~1%
Adam Duvall: 10%
Matt Chapman: ~1%
Brandon Belt: <1%
Tommy Pham: <1%

One SP, + Ryan Staneck: ~6%
One Bat, + Ryan Staneck: ~7%
One Bat, + One SP: ~7%
One Bat, + One SP + Ryan Staneck: <1%
No 'Major' FA acquisitions: ~80%
 

TomRicardo

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There is a non zero chance Montgomery or Snell take a Giolito type contract for more money, more likely Snell. I think the Red Sox would gladly pay it, even though it doesn't really make them a contender but at least calm down the native for a bit.

Not sure either signs with the Sox but if they do it isn't a total shock.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I think the Sox would have a hard time giving up a comp pick for a short term deal for Snell. I suspect JM is more likely although I don’t see either as probable.
 

6-5 Sadler

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Although not zero, I think it’s pretty unlikely and the chances of it being with the Sox are virtually zero. Giolito had to take a one-year deal because he was coming off a terrible year and didn’t receive much interest from other teams. Snell/Monty are arguably at the top of their value and I can’t see them risking injury/poor performance.

Also I think the Sox are a particularly bad fit for this type of contract. They play in an extreme hitters park and, as currently constructed, aren’t a good defensive team. From a contract structure standpoint, if the FSG financial troubles are real, it’s doubtful they would want a large one-year salary. They would more likely want the opposite - a longer contract with dummy years at the end or deferred money to reduce costs in the early years.
 

YTF

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Although not zero, I think it’s pretty unlikely and the chances of it being with the Sox are virtually zero. Giolito had to take a one-year deal because he was coming off a terrible year and didn’t receive much interest from other teams. Snell/Monty are arguably at the top of their value and I can’t see them risking injury/poor performance.

Also I think the Sox are a particularly bad fit for this type of contract. They play in an extreme hitters park and, as currently constructed, aren’t a good defensive team. From a contract structure standpoint, if the FSG financial troubles are real, it’s doubtful they would want a large one-year salary. They would more likely want the opposite - a longer contract with dummy years at the end or deferred money to reduce costs in the early years.
I mostly agree here. A Giolito type deal for either JM or BS makes no sense as the Sox aren't a likely WS contender in '24. I think another good defender in the OF would really make a difference providing Grissom provides at 2B, but don't really see a likely path there at this point.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Although not zero, I think it’s pretty unlikely and the chances of it being with the Sox are virtually zero. Giolito had to take a one-year deal because he was coming off a terrible year and didn’t receive much interest from other teams. Snell/Monty are arguably at the top of their value and I can’t see them risking injury/poor performance.

Also I think the Sox are a particularly bad fit for this type of contract. They play in an extreme hitters park and, as currently constructed, aren’t a good defensive team. From a contract structure standpoint, if the FSG financial troubles are real, it’s doubtful they would want a large one-year salary. They would more likely want the opposite - a longer contract with dummy years at the end or deferred money to reduce costs in the early years.
Agreed. I expect even teams that have been "out" while the supposed ask is 5+ will get in if the ask drops below three years, which will probably lead some real auction action. The sweet spot for both guys probably ends up being a 3-4 year deal. Long enough to justify giving up the pick in Snell's case, but not long enough for a team to risk having them in the twilight years.
 

chawson

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I think the Sox would have a hard time giving up a comp pick for a short term deal for Snell. I suspect JM is more likely although I don’t see either as probable.
FWIW, next year’s draft class is said to be pretty thin and weak at the top, according to Baseball America. In this particular scenario, giving up a 2nd round draft pick in 2024 with an eye toward QO-ing him and getting another in 2025 may not be a loss.
 

TomRicardo

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I think the Sox would have a hard time giving up a comp pick for a short term deal for Snell. I suspect JM is more likely although I don’t see either as probable.
If they thought they wouldn't end up in last again and flirt with a wild card spot, FSG would ritualistically sacrifice a second round draft pick on Yawkey Way. "Hey we weren't being cheap, look at the quality of the blade we used to chop the head off the 89th best draft prospect by BA today!"
 

Dewey'sCannon

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My WAGs (in order of likelihood):

Montgomery: 37.5%
Duval: 28%
Turner:25%
Soler: 20%
Stanek: 20%
JD: 15%
Ryu: 15%
Lorenzen:15%
Clevinger:10%
Pham: 10%
Snell: 5%
all others < 3%
 

Cassvt2023

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I’m hoping that i will be vindicated for saying that Jordan Montgomery is not a $25m year pitcher when he starts the season 6 weeks behind because of him and Boras overplaying his value that most of the teams in MLB called out, and he goes up against some pretty damn good lineups in NL west w/ LAD, SD, and SF, in addition to ATL, PHI, CIN, STL, and NYM… good luck buddy, I hope it was worth your holding out to miss out on around $100m
 

LogansDad

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I’m hoping that i will be vindicated for saying that Jordan Montgomery is not a $25m year pitcher when he starts the season 6 weeks behind because of him and Boras overplaying his value that most of the teams in MLB called out, and he goes up against some pretty damn good lineups in NL west w/ LAD, SD, and SF, in addition to ATL, PHI, CIN, STL, and NYM… good luck buddy, I hope it was worth your holding out to miss out on around $100m
I don't think he is a $25M/yr pitcher for 6 years, and I have been pretty ambivalent towards the Sox signing him for the most part, but, I really can't believe the Sox weren't willing/able to beat the deal that he just got.

I like the team they have, am pretty happy with this offseason overall, but even I am a little stunned that they couldn't make this work if these are the terms.
 

buttons

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Jul 18, 2005
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I don't think he is a $25M/yr pitcher for 6 years, and I have been pretty ambivalent towards the Sox signing him for the most part, but, I really can't believe the Sox weren't willing/able to beat the deal that he just got.

I like the team they have, am pretty happy with this offseason overall, but even I am a little stunned that they couldn't make this work if these are the terms.
 

buttons

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Jul 18, 2005
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My guess is that the contract he signed would have been one
that was well within their comfort zone.
The reason he’s going elsewhere is because neither party
was interested in making That deal