Extreme Makeover: The Jarren Duran Edition

LogansDad

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That's a pretty unique set of stats to zero in on, but it's still pretty cool and also, amazing.
Yeah, I am not a huge fan of throwing a bunch of stats together like that, because you can take almost any above average MLB player, and find a way to narrow a whole bunch of stats into a time frame and say "He's the only one to ever do this."

That said, what is unique about Duran's season so far, is that any one of those stats (except for home runs) stands out on its own as a "Wow, that's pretty amazing to have done by the All Star Break" stat.

And yet, he didn't even make the second round in voting.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Well, the ten triples is a weird oddity that’s driving the stat. The career leaders in triples are Sam Crawford, Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner, Jake Beckley, and Roger Connor, fwiw. The top living player on the list is George Brett, 70th all time with 137 triples.
 

Ferm Sheller

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Rickey didn't bother hitting triples; it was much easier to steal 3rd after stand up doubles.
Yeah, I saw that his triple numbers weren’t especially high, which I find unusual given his speed and that he had at least one at bat per game without someone clogging the bases ahead of him.
 

ookami7m

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Yeah, I saw that his triple numbers weren’t especially high, which I find unusual given his speed and that he had at least one at bat per game without someone clogging the bases ahead of him.
Dura's triple numbers are especially high.

Triples are the hardest thing to get as a batter, you almost need a misplay by the fielder or a lucky bounce, even as fast as Duran. Elly De La Cruz who I think most would say is as fast or faster than Duran only has 5 all season and 9 total for his career. Duran has more triples than 6 MLB teams and is tied with 6 more teams at 10 triples. So individually he's tied or ahead of 40% of teams.

Only 10 players currently have even 5 or more triples this year.

5 out of 213 qualified hitters to get to the plate this year.

We (and the Royals with Witt Jr with 9) are watching something pretty special.
 

Ferm Sheller

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Dura's triple numbers are especially high.

Triples are the hardest thing to get as a batter, you almost need a misplay by the fielder or a lucky bounce, even as fast as Duran. Elly De La Cruz who I think most would say is as fast or faster than Duran only has 5 all season and 9 total for his career. Duran has more triples than 6 MLB teams and is tied with 6 more teams at 10 triples. So individually he's tied or ahead of 40% of teams.

Only 10 players currently have even 5 or more triples this year.

5 out of 213 qualified hitters to get to the plate this year.

We (and the Royals with Witt Jr with 9) are watching something pretty special.
Yes, all of this is true, but Rickey played half of his games in one of the best triples parks in MLB and he played more than 3000 games over the course of 24 seasons from 1979 to 2003(!), so I thought it was likely that he'd had at least a few "exceptionally" high triples seasons.
 

ookami7m

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Yes, all of this is true, but Rickey played half of his games in one of the best triples parks in MLB and he played more than 3000 games over the course of 24 seasons from 1979 to 2003(!), so I thought it was likely that he'd had at least a few "exceptionally" high triples seasons.
Comparing anyone to Superman is not going to ever go well. You can't expect anyone to be as good as the best that ever did it. Compare to contemporaries.
2023 Bobby Witt had 11 triples in 158 games. Corbin Caroll 10 in 155 games. No one else in double Digits.

Duran is there before the break.

2022 Duran would already be the leader in triples for the season. Would have more than the White Sox or Yankees had for the whole season.

If Duran somehow at age 27 turns into Rickey not only would I be excited but I'd be shocked by it all. But not being the best ever doesn't mean that he isn't the best of right now.
 

BaseballJones

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Jim Rice did the same in 1978.
Rice's 1978 season is so under the radar it's crazy. It was one of the all-time great seasons from an offensive production standpoint. 21st all time in total bases. The 15 triples to go along with the 46 homers is bonkers. Amazingly he "only" had 25 doubles that year. I wonder where that ranks in terms of double:triple ratio.

In terms of total bases, Ruth topped it twice, Gehrig four times (!!), Sammy Sosa twice, Hornsby twice, Bonds only once, but that's because Bonds had a bajillion walks while Rice didn't even get 60 in 1978 - Rice was a hitting machine that year.
 

Al Zarilla

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Re Jim Rice and doubles, at home he probably smashed quite a few balls off the wall but the left fielder got the ball so quickly that he was held to singles. The inordinate amount of triples for a not so fast power guy? Triangle hits that bounced around a lot? Half of the games were on the road, so random types of stuff expected across all those games.
 

GrandSlamPozo

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Rickey didn't bother hitting triples; it was much easier to steal 3rd after stand up doubles.
He also drew too many walks to ring up large single-season hit totals. His career high in hits was 179 and he only exceeded 150 hits 5 times in 25 seasons. (He did actually lead the AL in hits in the strike-shortened 1981 season though.)

Well, the ten triples is a weird oddity that’s driving the stat. The career leaders in triples are Sam Crawford, Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner, Jake Beckley, and Roger Connor, fwiw. The top living player on the list is George Brett, 70th all time with 137 triples.
Willie Wilson had 147 triples and is still alive.
 
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Granite Sox

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Willie Wilson had 147 triples and is still alive.
Off topic a bit, but there was nothing quite like watching Willie Wilson run the bases after grounding a ball down the first base line into the corner. He ran like Michael Johnson busting through the turn in a 200m race. Mesmerizing base runner. Wilson also had 13 career inside-the-park homers, which is pretty insane for the modern era.

JD has the whole Angry Lizard thing going, which is equally entertaining in how it puts pressure on the outfielders.
 
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Al Zarilla

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I remember Wilson and I’ve noticed opposing outfielders and infielders never be casual when Duran hits a ball to either side of them. The word is out!
 

soxhop411

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MLB turning into the NFL and the No fun Police
MIAMI — On a column next to Jarren Duran’s locker in the Red Sox’ clubhouse at Fenway Park, a two-page letter from Major League Baseball is posted for everyone to see.

The letter, addressed directly to Duran, is from Michael Hill, the league’s senior vice president of on-field operations. It’s an official warning that Duran violated policies by wearing a custom-made undershirt that says “F--- ‘Em’ in a postgame interview with NESN’s Jahmai Webster after Duran hit a walk-off single to beat the Blue Jays in a comeback win June 24. One page of the letter is Hill’s warning that Duran shouldn’t be seen on TV wearing a shirt with expletives on it. The other is the evidence — screenshots of Duran and Webster on the field with Duran donning the shirt.
Duran understands that he broke baseball’s rules. But considering what the slogan means to Duran — and everything he has been through in both his major league career and life — the letter isn’t going to change much.

“I’m not surprised because obviously, it’s bad words and bad language,” he said Thursday before playing the Marlins. “It’s understandable. I’m glad they didn’t fine me. They just gave me a warning. If I ever hit a walk-off again, I’ll just take everything off so I don’t get in trouble.

“But that would be a fine I’d be happy to pay,” he added. “I wouldn’t have a problem paying that fine because it’s just me wearing something that means a lot to me.”
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/07/red-sox-jarren-duran-on-mlb-warning-over-shirt-a-fine-id-be-happy-to-pay.html?outputType=amp
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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There is a scenario where someone saw the interview or a screencap of the shirt and complained to MLB about it too - could be a concerned parent, citizen or an advertiser.

A warning but no fine feels appropriate.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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He started selling those shirts earlier this week and I bought one (the link is on his insta for anyone interested), but sure I can obviously see why it’s inappropriate. People must have complained though, if it was just MLB I would think they would also tell him to stop wearing the wristbands that say the same thing, which are actually visible while he’s playing
 

Al Zarilla

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O’Brien and Middlebrooks were talking yesterday during the game as though Duran was making the all star team, and maybe Devers would also. How? There is no longer the rule that each team must be represented by at least one player. What am I missing?
 

TapeAndPosts

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O’Brien and Middlebrooks were talking yesterday during the game as though Duran was making the all star team, and maybe Devers would also. How? There is no longer the rule that each team must be represented by at least one player. What am I missing?
Fans vote for the starters, the reserves and pitchers are chosen by a combination of player votes and the Commissioner's Office. I think the hope/assumption is that the players and/or MLB would put them in.

Also, there is still a rule that each team must be represented, and the Commissioner's Office selections will ensure this, but if a team's representative can't participate, they need not be replaced.

Rules here
 

Al Zarilla

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Fans vote for the starters, the reserves and pitchers are chosen by a combination of player votes and the Commissioner's Office. I think the hope/assumption is that the players and/or MLB would put them in.

Also, there is still a rule that each team must be represented, and the Commissioner's Office selections will ensure this, but if a team's representative can't participate, they need not be replaced.

Rules here
OK. I got an answer that every team did not have to be represented any more. Guess that was wrong.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Each roster is like, 35 players deep. There's really no reason to think that Duran and Devers wouldn't make the team even if there weren't a rule about every team being represented.
 

koufax32

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Each roster is like, 35 players deep. There's really no reason to think that Duran and Devers wouldn't make the team even if there weren't a rule about every team being represented.
I imagine Duran, Devers, Wong, and Houck have great chances to be named.
 

BaseballJones

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Wong
- Case for: has an ops (.820) higher than any other C in the AL, including Rutschman (.808).
- Case against: is 6th in the AL among catchers in WAR, so there are likely 5 other C more deserving of a spot than him.
- Verdict: I don't think he makes it unless some of the other C ahead of him have to not play or something.

Duran
- Case for: 3rd among AL OF in WAR (4.7), behind only Judge and Soto. 1st among AL OF in 2b (24), and 1st in 3b (10) and 1st in H (103). 2nd XBH (44) behind only Judge (56). 1st in SB. Overall statistical profile is pretty overwhelming that he's one of the top 3 OF in the AL this year, across the board.
- Case against: Just 7th among AL OF in ops (.828). Otherwise, not much of a case.
- Verdict: He'll get in.

Devers
- Case for: 1st among AL 3b in OPS (.932). 4th in WAR (2.4). 2nd in HR (18).
- Case against: 4th in WAR might keep him out, as they may only go with 2-3 3b and if they use WAR as a big factor, it could leave him out.
- Verdict: He'll get in.

Houck
- Case for: 4th among AL SP in ERA (2.68). 5th in IP (111.0). He's just been solid all year, right from start #1.
- Case against: 14th in W (7). 10th in WHIP (1.05). 9th in WAR (2.7).
- Verdict: He won't get in, but he'll be close. He was totally dominant through his first 13 starts (1.91 era), but over his last 5 he hasn't been nearly as good (26 ip, 15 er, 5.19 era), so he's definitely coming back to earth. Might just be enough to keep him out.

Jansen
- Case for: 4th in AL in saves (17). Of the 13 guys with 10+ saves, he's 4th in ERA (2.08). 4th among RP in WAR (1.5).
- Case against: Just so many great relievers, and this is a good spot to add guys from teams who might not have other representation. I can just see him losing out here.
- Verdict: He won't get in, unless some other worthy guys drop out.

Conclusion: Sox get 2 of the 5 guys into the ASG, maybe 3 if things break right. All 5 are probably deserving in some way, but virtually no chance of all 5, little chance of 4, modest chance of 3, and most likely 2. I don't see how they don't get at least 2 guys in though - most likely (IMO) Duran and Devers.
 

BaseballJones

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So far I've been right on Jansen and wrong on Houck. Very happy for Tanner. Would love to see a couple of the other guys make it too.

EDIT: Ok, so Duran and Devers made it too. So I was right about Jansen (didn't make it), Duran (did make it), Devers (did make it), and Wong (didn't make it), but wrong about Houck (did make it).
 

YTF

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So far I've been right on Jansen and wrong on Houck. Very happy for Tanner. Would love to see a couple of the other guys make it too.

EDIT: Ok, so Duran and Devers made it too. So I was right about Jansen (didn't make it), Duran (did make it), Devers (did make it), and Wong (didn't make it), but wrong about Houck (did make it).
As good as he's been there would have had to have been three catchers taken for Wong to have had any chance and that pretty much doesn't happen.
 

BaseballJones

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As good as he's been there would have had to have been three catchers taken for Wong to have had any chance and that pretty much doesn't happen.
Yep, I saw it the same way. He has been awesome this year but down the list of deserving catchers.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Awesome, he’s worked hard and completely changed pretty much everyone’s opinion on him over the past few years. Nice to see him recognized for that.
 

Cassvt2023

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I think they pretty much got it right. Raffy and Duran were no doubters. Houck has been really good, with a couple blips lately. A case could’ve been made for Kenley, who has been lights out the last 2 months, but he had been there before and other relievers on worse teams had to get in. I’m glad for the two 1st timers, and happy Jansen will get those days off, we’ll need him to be fresh in 2nd half.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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Excellent piece on Duran's 2024 success in FanGraphs yesterday. Here's one of several points in the article:

"Duran has become more selective. He’s cut his first-pitch swing rate nearly in half, watching such offerings go by at nearly Mike Trout levels. He’s dropped his swing rate on strikes in his cold zones by nine points, in addition to a reduction in chase rate. The results of these adjustments has been staggering, and Duran has looked like a brand new hitter this year. Even without an increase in raw strength, Duran’s focus on swinging only at the best pitches have vaulted his barrel rate above the league average, along with his xSLG and xwOBA. Additionally, his taking more called strikes has aided more than just his power numbers: His strikeout and walk rates have actually improved with his new approach."

It also highlights his baserunning and defense.

Also pegs the Sox as one of the most exciting teams to watch right now:

"Nearing the All-Star break, the Red Sox have as close to coin-flip playoff odds as any other club, and the high stakes they’ve played under combined with their meteoric performance over the past few weeks have made them one of the most exciting teams in baseball to watch. And in the middle of it is the homegrown All-Star Duran, whose improvements have manifested in every single aspect of his game."

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jarren-duran-has-become-a-master-of-all-trades/