Wow. In the early sixties, the teams I followed were 40 games under .500, and such a list wouldn't have been even considered until July 4th. Impatience has become a virtue in the twenty-first century.
Everything Must Go? The 2022 Red Sox as Sellers?
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Sorry. I was trying to be funny and failing miserably. As for those who want Casas, it is important to note that top prospects frequently don't take off right away. See Bogey's first full season. That being said, Duran already got 112 at bats. If his new swing looks good and is producing results in Pawtucket, he might be an upgrade to RF.
I thought it was funny.
wrt to Casas, its true top prospects can sputter a bit after the move but depending upon how the season goes (ie do we end up sellers?) that might be a reason to bring him up and work through any transition challenges when the season isn't in the balance.
To be clear, I see this as the less than 20% outcome and I'm still very much hoping we season Casas into a successful lineup that is firing on all cylinders, with the pitching holding on until the reinforcements arrive, and the Sox don't end up sellers.
I like having a thread like this; I think it's clearly too early to decide we are sellers, but I don't think it's too early to think about whether we could be and what that might mean for the big picture. A few points that I don't think have been covered, but that I think bear on this kind of question:
That's a big step towards the Red Sox of the Future (reverberating voice), but you also still have a viable roster that looks like it could go on a run and nab a wildcard, and could be a pretty tough out in a three-game series behind Eovaldi, Sale and Paxton. But we'd have "sold" veteran players for prospects.
- The AL East's depth means that a very good team from the division will likely not make the playoffs. It would be barely possible, but very difficult given an unbalanced schedule, for a division's fourth place team to claim the sixth AL playoff spot. You'd need a ton of help — like, say, 110 wins — from the Central and Western division winners, and those divisions look pretty competitive, too, with the Mariners, Angels, Twins, and Guardians looking good, and the Tigers and Rangers looking like they should be considerably improved.
- This team is likely built for a second half run: the return of Sale and Paxton from the IL and the probable promotions of a few of the Casas, Duran, Downs, Bello, Winckowski, Seabold, Murphy, Fitzgerald crowd in AA/AAA means that the September Sox are likely to be a better, younger, deeper team than the April Sox. It was predictable in advance that the Opening Day roster of this team would not be its final form.
- The young core of the 2025 Red Sox is coming together in the minors: Marcelo Mayer has an .888 OPS; Wilkelman Gonzalez' ERA is 0.00 through three starts; both Alex Binelas and Ceddane Rafaela have 6 HR and a .700+ SLG in their first 60ish PA; Nick Yorke has a .396 OBP; Chih-Jung Liu is back in the high 90s and striking out 13/9 IP; Brayan Bello has a 14.1 K/9 and a 2.3 BB/9; and one could go on: Jimenez, Hamilton, Bonaci, Kavadas, Lugo, Hickey are all have successful seasons to one extent or another. There are plenty of others who aren't thriving, but a bunch of the guys who looked like they might blossom into exciting prospects look like they are indeed doing so. The future is looking bright. If 2022 isn't our year, the next window is already pretty clearly visible. Whichever of these guys aren't traded in a reload will be debuting in 2023, '24, and '25.
That's a big step towards the Red Sox of the Future (reverberating voice), but you also still have a viable roster that looks like it could go on a run and nab a wildcard, and could be a pretty tough out in a three-game series behind Eovaldi, Sale and Paxton. But we'd have "sold" veteran players for prospects.
“ The AL East's depth means that a very good team from the division will likely not make the playoffs. It would be barely possible, but very difficult given an unbalanced schedule, for a division's fourth place team to claim the sixth AL playoff spot. You'd need a ton of help — like, say, 110 wins — from the Central and Western division winners, and those divisions look pretty competitive, too, with the Mariners, Angels, Twins, and Guardians looking good, and the Tigers and Rangers looking like they should be considerably improved.”
This isn’t true, just last year 4 AL East teams would have made it.
This isn’t true, just last year 4 AL East teams would have made it.
I mean you only have to look all the way back to last season to show this isn't true. With a 6 team playoff, all 4 AL East contenders would have made the playoffs with the central and west division winners only having 93 and 95 wins. Even then, if it wasn't for the M's vastly overperforming their pythag it wouldn't have even been that close. 6 out of 15 is a lot, and it is far too soon to throw in the towel.
I guess I could understand the pessimism if the suspect pitching staff was getting knocked around, but the issue has almost entirely been the offense. I see no reason to think they aren't due for some significant positive regression.
You now potentially get draft pick compensation for starting your top prospects at the beginning of the season. If you have a player finish top 3 in rookie of the year, or any prospect finish top 5 in Cy Young or MVP voting, the team gets a bonus pick.
In light of this, they may want to wait for Casas to absolutely bust down the door before promoting him this year, especially if they aren't likely to make the playoffs.
Him winning rookie of the year next year has long term benefits, whereas he won't save the season if things have gone wrong this year.
I remember reading something when the Diamondbacks rumors came out that he was considering retiring. He hasn't really been healthy in years, with knee and back issues. He has made over 200 million dollars in his career and its not like he would be making more money if he played this season. He would really have to go off to get much of a contract after this season but he seems like he would just be the short side of a platoon if he did go to a contender. Maybe it makes more sense to him to sit out the year and see how he feels physically at the end of the season. He is 35 in August.
It would be kind of ironic if this new policy caused some teams to delay calling up prospects mid-season so as to preserve their ROY eligibility....
Yup... Seems like the idea is to stop service time manipulation in favor of the players. But you can see it going the other way just as often. If Casas is well and truly ready in August, but the Sox are well and truly out of the playoff race, the chance of Casas getting enough plate appearances to lose his rookie eligibility is very low.
It's cool to think about, if he comes up next spring and wings rookie of the year and places top 5 in the MVP, we get two bonita high round draft picks. It just makes top 100 prospects that much more valuable as the gift keeps on giving.
Yes, that's true, and rereading my post I wasn't really clear about what I was trying to say. That situation was possible in 2021 because there were seven teams in the AL over .500 (which is about what you'd expect), and four of them were in the same division. I meant to suggest that it would be barely possible with this season's competitive landscape — i.e. with what look like much stronger teams in Seattle, Texas, Minnesota, Cleveland and Anaheim.
I get that what I wrote came off different, but I remember all the discussion from the offseason about how the 2021 Blue Jays were the new 1993 Giants.
In any case, all I was trying to say was that the unbalanced schedule means that a lot of things have to break right for a fourth-place team to have a chance at a top six record. It remains the most likely outcome that a good AL East team will be on the outside looking in.
The bullpen could certainly (always?) be improved, but it is not the biggest problem for the team so far. The biggest problem is the lack of run scoring. That should improve simply by having guys start performing closer to their career averages. Maybe warmer weather will help. Maybe just getting more reps will help.
As for the idea of trading for Soto, they'd laugh in Bloom's face if he proposed a package including X (free agent to be), JD (free agent to be) and Sale. To pry Soto from them, it might just take every half-decent prospect in the entire system. Casas, Mayer, and Bello might get a conversation started.
yes u are right but soto is a FA in 3 years and i doubt the nats will pony up 450 500 mil for him
J-man, I suspect X is going to take at least 2/3 of that to sign, so if you add JDM and Sale to that, it's a wash money wise. Teams that can't afford established stars usually try to trade them for prospects, not other teams' established stars. This team as constructed is not really a contender, and adding one more piece will not make a difference.
WAS already offered Soto 13/350, they have already let Turner and Scherzer and Rendon go. I think they will be the high bidder on Soto and he will stay there, but even if he leaves, it’s hard to see them trading him if there is any hope he will sign long-term.
It's "only" $27 million per year. 14/$500 might actually be more appropriate. It would bring him to his age 37 season, and he would still be only the 3rd highest paid player by annual salary at the start of the contract.
That contact could look extremely inexpensive if he is a unanimous Hall of Famer in 20 years (he already has 12 black ink at age 23). It it could also look terrible in two short years if his career derails.
For perspective, the 2019 World Series champions were 19-31 almost a third of the way into the season. Last year's World Series champions were 24-26 at the same 50 game point (after starting 7-10), and they had only 38 games left in the season with their best young player from that point on.
I'm not saying that's the plan, but just suggesting there's a path no matter how grim things get early in the season. Besides missing 40% of our starting staff, Trevor Story is adjusting to a new park, a new league, and fatherhood. It's safe to say we haven't seen the best of him yet. (For a comparison, this season Francisco Lindor looks a lot more like the player the Mets thought they were getting when they acquired him than he did early last season when he was dealing with all those same issues.)
With baseball, patience is not just a virtue, it's a necessity given how long the season is.
I'm not saying that's the plan, but just suggesting there's a path no matter how grim things get early in the season. Besides missing 40% of our starting staff, Trevor Story is adjusting to a new park, a new league, and fatherhood. It's safe to say we haven't seen the best of him yet. (For a comparison, this season Francisco Lindor looks a lot more like the player the Mets thought they were getting when they acquired him than he did early last season when he was dealing with all those same issues.)
With baseball, patience is not just a virtue, it's a necessity given how long the season is.
Every big team in baseball will be gunning for Soto and I hope the Red Sox sign him. But if the Nationals don't just tell him they will beat whatever offer he gets or give him some absurd deal to start with, the owners will face some serious backlash. This is a team that is giving Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin $58.42 million this season. The only FA contract they have on the books in 2025 is Strasburg's. They should plan their next window around Soto and his $40 mil a year contract.
There have been rumors that the Lerners are exploring a sale. If true who the buyer is may well drive how things play out with Soto.
And that’s the hardest part right? Predicting at the beginning of a players career how it will end. Effectively that’s what they have to do if they’re going to bet 15 years and $500+ million.
Will certainly be used as a comp point (edit: although Soto is a better hitter) for Bogaerts (though he already has a 10 year track record) and Devers. Unfortunately I don’t think it bodes well with the current management. OTOH, if we had Dombrowski as GM still…
Edit again (sorry): I think the comp is simply that of beloved homegrown superstar… If you want him, that’s what it’s gonna take to keep him here until he retires.
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A simple move they could try to make would be flipping one of the lefty relievers for a righty of similar quality. With Taylor due back, there’s no way they can keep four lefty relievers. I’d imagine Davis or Taylor would be the most likely to be on the move.
Hi folks. Sorry I've been busy. If this thread seemed premature and some took umbrage, my apologies.
That said... I'm glad to see the discussion has been productive.
Unlike this team.
That said... I'm glad to see the discussion has been productive.
Unlike this team.
Both Davis and Taylor have multiple arb-eligible years left before free agency. Strahm was signed to a one-year deal and Diekman to a two-year deal with a club option. They are better candidates to deal with Davis and Taylor being long-term options out of the 'pen. Taylor closed a little last year too, so he's a possible backup option in that role. If Big Fudge can keep slinging out up there in the mid-90s, he might be a 9th inning option too. I wouldn't move either, not at this point.
In a vacuum, I agree- each of these guys has value but I’m not sure how you can effectively manage an 8 man bullpen in 2022 with four lefties- with the 3 batter minimum role and starters routinely going 4 innings. It’s the reason we see the team calling on Brasier to get big outs every single game. I don’t see how you can beat the Jays or Yankees with such a southpaw heavy pen.
I think they have to seriously start exploring being sellers this year. They are already five games out of the divisional lead and they haven't even suffered injuries yet. The offense is terrible, the starting pitching massively inconsistent, the bullpen awful, and they have morons on the team whose personal decisions are crippling the bullpen management. Realistically the division is out of reach already.
Of course. I'm perfectly willing to be sellers come June if that is warranted (and I think Bloom will be too), but there are 3 wild cards; giving up on the playoffs because of a 2.5 game deficit on April 27 is absurd. Let's at least first see how much the internal improvements of Casas, Duran, and Sale can help.
I mean, who remembers 3 months ago when the Celtics were 23-24, behind the Wizards in the playoff race and only a half game ahead of the Knicks? People wanted to trade Brown and/or Tatum because "they can't play together".
Depends on what you mean by “haven’t suffered injuries”. Two of their best starting pitchers haven’t thrown a pitch yet and won’t til later this season. Story and JD have missed a number of games already. Story has played in just 13 of 18 and JD in just 14 of 18. Might not sound like much but 13 out of 18 would project to 117 games played and 14 out of 18 would project to 126 games played over the full 162. In other words, seems small but actually it’s quite a bit at this point.
I'm not expecting Sale to contribute at all this year and if Bloom did so that's on him as a silly mistake. He was never going to be a big part of the team.
Fact is, the team stinks out loud and the season has already gotten away from them. Five games out on April 27. It's a disgrace.
I'd also say that in the early sixties, the players were under control indefinitely, so they all had value past the present year.
With this team, you have a bunch of short time contracts, and even the "future" of this team is dubious with JD in his final year, X opting out, Hernandez/Vasquez/Bradley out, and the pitching staff of Eovaldi/Sale nearing the end of their tours, plus flotsam of Wacha/Paxton.
So, if this were a team with a core to build around, nobody would be in this thread. But between seeing this roster to start the season (and not being that attached to any of them long term, save for X/Devers), and then seeing it play out as predicted, it is not wrong to ask about what value can be obtained.
And on the point of being attached to guys, I understand the flexibility of buying short term undervalued guys. But there is the issue of having your guys. Back in the Marvin Miller days, he proposed having everyone be a free agent each year. If the Sox were able to select a new team each year, would it be as rewarding for the fans with the team lacking any through-string from season to season? In the 60s you had losers, but they were your losers. I just can't invest in the revolving Beninendi/Rendroe/Brandley spot for the year.
We all get that you’re the biggest Debbie downer among all the Debbie downers here. I was just correcting the notion that they haven’t dealt with injuries. Because they sure have.
The biggest injury they've dealt with is the head injury Houck seems to have which isn't healing any time soon.
As for being a Debbie Downer, I'm merely being realistic. 5 games out after 18 games is a very poor sign for their season and if they were smart they'd start getting selling contingency plans into place now, because it will be July before they know it and if they can't dramatically improve like, tomorrow, they'll be 17 1/2 games out and the season will be over.
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Do you really think that in 2022, any front office (never mind an analytically-centered one) would not have a sense of what being sellers at the deadline would look like? That they don't already know the players that could be moved and what they might expect in return? What exactly do you want them to do in preparation?
We both know that a) 5 games in April isn't that much, b) the division has not been the only way to make the playoffs since the early 90s, and c) they've added an extra wild card this year. The Braves sucked in April last year, lost Ron Acuna to a season ending injury in July, and then won the WS. Their opponent, the Astros, started 7-10. Ignoring these things is how one gets the rep of a Debbie Downer.
We can go back and look at your Debbie downerism last year, and the Sox ended up making the playoffs and going on a phenomenal run. You thought you were being realistic then too.
I'm not trying to be critical of you. Just pointing out that you come off very much as a glass half (or all) empty kind of person when it comes to the Sox.
They've lost two games recently they should have won. This has been basically a .500 team, which isn't great, but isn't terrible. They've lost two key players for a good portion (relatively speaking) of the season, and 2 of their 3 best starting pitchers haven't even shown up yet. And yes, I'm quite sure that when they made their plans for the year they were expecting some contribution from both Sale and Paxton at some point. Maybe they were wrong to think that, but I'm sure that was part of their calculus.
We all figured that the first half of the year was going to be a "hang in there...they'll "add" two quality starters to the team in the second half" kind of thing. And, well, here we are. Hoping they hang in there.
They aren't hitting which is exactly what they did the entire second half of last year. Too may terrible ABs chasing pitches out of the zone in a misguided attempt to make something happen. Same story as last year when they played horrible for the last 3 months of the year.
They've lost three games on this road trip because one of their key bullpen pieces was forced to start because of the adject stupidity of one of the starters.The bullpen is once again in utter shambles. And they've already been left by the side of the road in the division.
They're not good enough. They are not basically a .500 team, they're a .400 team. And they're already far enough out of the division that it's fair to wonder if this year should be a throwaway season and reset for 2023.
There's essentially no excuse for being this far back in the division this early. No one expected them to start this badly. I suspect that run to the ALCS last year has overshadowed some of their endemic flaws which once again have not been addressed this season. Add to that the lack of extensions for X and Devers, and there's very little reason to this this year is going to be sunshine and roses.
And I can't emphasize enough how utterly disgusted I am with the "personal choices" of some of the players. It's killing the team.
Do you know this? I mean, I get the frustration here, but if the medical people are telling Bloom to expect Sale back in early June, that's not Bloom's fault.
Let's see, we've got a pitcher over 33 who is perpetually injured, who was completely ineffective last year coming back from another injury and who is built like Manute Bol on a diet. Anyone counting on him to do anything but get injured again was fooling themselves. You cannot count on any contributions from such guys at all.
"I'm going to keep bringing up the division and ignoring the wild card because it justifies me being outraged."
The division is a benchmark, it shows how clearly outclassed they are so far this season. 5 games back at the ASB would be a concern, 5 games back by April 27 is appalling.
Again, first thing I'd do is look to move or demote Houck.
I mean, obviously the season hasn't gotten off to a good start and there are spots on the roster that might not get better by themselves. They might end up being sellers at the deadline. But Fangraphs still has them as 44.1% to make the postseason. I'm going to listen to them over the hysterical rantings of an outrage junkie.
There are 2 questions here:
1.) Should the Sox be sellers now? Answer is obviously not. Not only is it early, it's also not an easy time to pull off trades. Nor is it prudent to do so while the team is evaluating how their own prospects are doing in the next level of minor league play.
2.) Will the Sox be sellers in June? In a way, I do fear that the answer may be no. Not because I think they will go on a winning streak. Just that there is a real chance their record will normalize a bit after they start playing some of the league's dregs, and they could easily enter Father's Day being 1 or 2 back from that (horrible) 3rd wild card spot.
1.) Should the Sox be sellers now? Answer is obviously not. Not only is it early, it's also not an easy time to pull off trades. Nor is it prudent to do so while the team is evaluating how their own prospects are doing in the next level of minor league play.
2.) Will the Sox be sellers in June? In a way, I do fear that the answer may be no. Not because I think they will go on a winning streak. Just that there is a real chance their record will normalize a bit after they start playing some of the league's dregs, and they could easily enter Father's Day being 1 or 2 back from that (horrible) 3rd wild card spot.
I have to say, I’m completely with SJH on this.
I have zero rooting interest in the development of Tanner Houck, at this point.
And the team itself is failing in a way that close observers of roster construction could accurately have predicted months ago. Whitlock-excepted, this bullpen is indeed the straight garbage many foresaw.
At the risk of sounding a game-thready note, it strikes me this morning that last year’s impressive run, like that of the Montreal Canadiens, have skewed appraisals and expectations, alike. And from the “But still“ quarter, savior-on-the-shelf Chris Sale plays the role of Carey Price.
I have a major rooting interest in Tanner Houck because he's a really good, young pitcher on my favorite team.
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