Everything Must Go? The 2022 Red Sox as Sellers?

[Mueller's Twin Grannies]

@Ganthem suggested it in the game thread, so here it is:

Who goes? Who stays?

I'll start:

Trade bait:
JDM
X (IF they really don't think he'll re-sign)
Eovaldi
Sale (we can hope)
Robles
Plawecki (Wong can backup Vásquez for half a season before becoming a starter)
Dalbec (bags of balls aren't cheap)
Pivetta
Kiké

I don't trade Vásquez, just let his deal expire. He may not be a great offensive catcher... or defensive catcher... or catcher, but he's the guy the pitching staff knows the best, is the most experienced backstop on the team, has been pretty durable aside from the TJS, and is a bit of a team leader. Moving him probably does more harm than good in the short term. Wong and Hernández can compete for the starting job next year and they can sign another backup (maybe even Plawecki again) on the cheap.

I'm not sure who else has value that they'd be willing to part with. Maybe Wacha, if he agrees?

 

[snowmanny]

For a second there I thought it was still April and that six teams make the playoffs.

 

[E5 Yaz]

For a second there I thought it was still April and that six teams make the playoffs.

For a second there, I thought it was the first of April

 

[Rovin Romine]

He's thinking long term. The next list is players we'll want to trade in March of 2023.

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

If the hitters keep this up, they're not going to command much value. Ditto Pivetta.

 

[Rovin Romine]

If the hitters keep this up, they're not going to command much value. Ditto Pivetta.

But if we trade three of our starters and two of our bigger bats, almost anyone we get back will be that much more valuable.

It's how it works.

 

[Ganthem]

I am going to back up Mueller here since it was my idea. I was on the fence about creating this, because I am not the most rational individual after the shit show that was the Tampa Bay series. That being said, I think this can be a fun exercise. Obviously everyone is hoping we get a big laugh out of this thread come the deadline. That will mean the Sox are buyers, but what if they are sellers? I think X is the prized jewel that will be moved if they are out of contention. It seems as if X is going after as much money as possible (thought I could be wrong) so I would not worry about his signability if he was traded. Assuming Evoldi is healthy and effective I can see him also netting some pieces for the future. I think if Sale comes back and is healthy and throwing well, I still am not sure anyone would give up much for him. He does have a tendency to get injured. Then again, maybe Bloom just wants his contract off the books and he would be willing to eat a bit of money if some team was willing to help with that. I am still bullish on Dalbec. I think his hits will still come and given that he is cost controlled he can be useful still. That is not to say if the right offer comes along, the Sox should not jump on it. JDM seems like the kind of guy Bloom would move for a B or C prospect who ends up being very useful for this team. If the team is done come the deadline, I would have no issue trading Vaz. At that point it doesn't matter if the pitchers are comfortable throwing to Plawecki or Wong or anyone, the season is done. I am not sure if the Sox can get anything for Vaz given that both his defense and offense is suspect. I would add the following to your list.
Diekman
Barnes (assuming he remembers how to pitch)
JBJ (assuming he is playing well)

The next player is someone I can't see being traded, but stranger things have happen. Devers might be on the block. Once again I think it is very unlikely. The thinking would have to be that they either aren't interested in signing him or he is not interested in signing here. In that case the Sox can see what they get by offering Devers with a year and a half of control. In the off season, Bloom will have a ton of money and prospects to play with, so there is a chance the team can be competitive in 2023. Like I said it is unlikely, but it is an interesting thought imo.

 

[YTF]

16 games in, 2 games under.500 and as a result of a suggestion made in the knee jerkiest of all knee jerk shit shows I will with a good deal confidence state that new threads are not always a good thing.

 

[lexrageorge]

Bogaerts has a full no-trade clause, which will limit his value on the trade market.

 

[Mueller's Twin Grannies]

16 games in, 2 games under.500 and as a result of a suggestion made in the knee jerkiest of all knee jerk shit shows I will with a good deal confidence state that new threads are not always a good thing.

16 games in, 2 games under .500 and add a result of years of observation on this board (including an innumerable number of "we're still winning this game!" posts in game threads (Narrator: they did not win all those games)) I will with a good deal of confidence state that a lot - A LOT - of people in this board are not fully grounded in reality.

Look, I get it: it's a long season, shit happens, and you never know. But, in this case, I think we are all safe in saying that this team is not going to match the accomplishments of the 2018 team, the 2007 team, or even the 2013 team. Could they match the 2004 team? Sure. Are they likely to? No.

Sometimes it's healthy to admit that this team does not have what it takes in a given season. To me, this is one of those times. If hope is still springing eternal for you, I'll tip my non-existent cap. But, to me, this was a 4th place team coming into the year and NOTHING I've seen has given me any hope they I was wrong.

If you think they can still get into the playoffs (I'll remind you that, yes, it's 6 teams, but that the AL East does not have to send three teams to the tournament, despite what normally happens), then good for you. But some of us see this team as nothing more than a placeholder. Thus this thread (which we all knew was coming, just maybe came a little earlier than some might like). Participation is not mandatory.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

16 games in, 2 games under .500 and add a result of years of observation on this board (including an innumerable number of "we're still winning this game!" posts in game threads (Narrator: they did not win all those games)) I will with a good deal of confidence state that a lot - A LOT - of people in this board are not fully grounded in reality.

Beginning with the folks who think this thread is necessary 10% of the way into the season. It's panic, plain and simple. You want to be debbie fucking downers, be my guest, but don't paint yourself as rational.

 

[cornwalls@6]

Did the sandbox make a comeback ?

 

[E5 Yaz]

Did the sandbox make a comeback ?

I think it just changed zip codes

 

[snowmanny]

If you think they can still get into the playoffs (I'll remind you that, yes, it's 6 teams, but that the AL East does not have to send three teams to the tournament, despite what normally happens), then good for you. But some of us see this team as nothing more than a placeholder. Thus this thread (which we all knew was coming, just maybe came a little earlier than some might like). Participation is not mandatory.

OK, so you're saying Tampa, Toronto and NYY will finish ahead of the Red Sox for pretty much sure. That means another division will have two playoff teams. Tell me which two teams from which division you reasonably expect will have better records than Boston

Edit- we aren't that far removed from an 83 win team going 11-5 in the postseason and winning the World Series. Under this year's rules an 82 win team would have made the NL playoffs that season, 2006.

 

[YTF]

16 games in, 2 games under .500 and add a result of years of observation on this board (including an innumerable number of "we're still winning this game!" posts in game threads (Narrator: they did not win all those games)) I will with a good deal of confidence state that a lot - A LOT - of people in this board are not fully grounded in reality.

Look, I get it: it's a long season, shit happens, and you never know. But, in this case, I think we are all safe in saying that this team is not going to match the accomplishments of the 2018 team, the 2007 team, or even the 2013 team. Could they match the 2004 team? Sure. Are they likely to? No.

Sometimes it's healthy to admit that this team does not have what it takes in a given season. To me, this is one of those times. If hope is still springing eternal for you, I'll tip my non-existent cap. But, to me, this was a 4th place team coming into the year and NOTHING I've seen has given me any hope they I was wrong.

If you think they can still get into the playoffs (I'll remind you that, yes, it's 6 teams, but that the AL East does not have to send three teams to the tournament, despite what normally happens), then good for you. But some of us see this team as nothing more than a placeholder. Thus this thread (which we all knew was coming, just maybe came a little earlier than some might like). Participation is not mandatory.

A little early? Shit there's still a shot that MLB could encounter a snow out this season. You're 100% correct in saying that 3 teams may not come out of the AL east. There are 4 teams that may well end up beating the hell out of each other and I think at least the top two get in. Injuries factor into these things for all teams as well as in season call ups and the occasional pre deadline trade. Also, let's not discount the idea that a few of these players are going to find their groove before this all plays out. This team has issues for sure, but we're a week away from May and if your going to start a thread about the Sox being sellers with, "Here's a gem of an idea that I picked up out of today's game thread." you gotta be prepared for some blow back.

 

[bsj]

Zero problem with a speculative if/then thread.
It doesn’t “jinx” the team.
it doesn’t mean anyone thinks it’s “likely to happen”.
It doesn’t mean anyone is “rooting” for it.
I think this team will be playoff caliber or close but I still have no problem kicking around other scenarios.
Everyone says “more threads are good” until it’s one they don’t like.

 

[A Bad Man]

You have to see what Paxton and Sale have; if both are not contributing meaningfully by the end of July and we are around .500, we definitely have to think about selling. But again, you have to see what those two have first

 

[OCD SS]

Everyone says “more threads are good” until it’s one they don’t like.

… that they don’t have to participate in if they don’t like the discussion. As someone who did not expect this team to do much (based more on regression from a team that I think over preformed last year, but whatever) I think this is a team where it might make sense to look at potential deals.

If we he team can make deals early, they may get more out of whatever assets they have. They could also potentially look to move overpreformers to make space for young players. For the latter I could see JD being dealt in order clear space for Casas, while keeping a still very cheap Dalbec who can back up 1B/ DH (and 3B in a pinch I guess?) for a few years until he gets more expensive.

 

[CR67dream]

Zero problem with a speculative if/then thread.
It doesn’t “jinx” the team.
it doesn’t mean anyone thinks it’s “likely to happen”.
It doesn’t mean anyone is “rooting” for it.
I think this team will be playoff caliber or close but I still have no problem kicking around other scenarios.
Everyone says “more threads are good” until it’s one they don’t like.

I pretty much come down here. I'm the kind of guy who likes to look at all possibilities and possible responses to each, just in case, and I hate to say it but the Sox are up for a tough fight in an extremely tough division, and as currently constructed, IMO, are highly unlikely to be able to keep pace. The ideas I'm interested in are ones that make the team better, and while I would never start a reactionary thread in April, this team, objectively, has a lot of problems. Talking about what to do in several different realistic scenarios seems ok to me, even if it's not how I would have kicked the conversation off myself.

Let's just make sure to keep the discussion on point and focused and not slide into whine-fest game thread territory.

EDIT: Changed the colon to a question mark in the title, which fits more with the speculative nature of any future needs/moves.

 

[CR67dream]

Sure - totally doable.

Tuesday, August 2 at 6:00 pm EST - the Trade Deadline.

We have just played our 104th game last night (against Houston), but we've seen this coming for a long time. Since April 24th in fact.

Xander's broken wrist means he won't be testing free agency, and if I read another Nomar comparison thread about how we're stuck with him and his souring attitude, I may vomit. It was so obvious back on April 24th, a child could have seen it coming. Like it wrote itself or something.

Thankfully, we can package both JBJ (who is doing amazingly well) and JD Drew (who is meh-ish) to the Orioles, given their improbable run. And that unfortunately outfield collision. Duke is famously stingy, but the post-season possibility was too much, what with the Judge suspension, and the prospect pacakage looks good, especially that kid they lateraled to us from the Rangers. Who would have guessed he'd be so competent at first after converting from the OF this season?

It seems like the earlier Casas trade for pitching wasn't a shot in the dark. I mean, I've had an Aldo Ramirez shaped hole in my heart since mid 2021, but sometimes you have to give up a 100% sure thing to get a 100% sure thing.

Nope.

If folks don't want to talk about possible scenarios, or what Bloom may be compelled to do in in reaction to these possible scenarios, no one is forcing you. We are trying to recenter this conversation to realistic scenarios, and this kind of thing does not help.

 

[streeter88]

“Heta kuso” as they said in Major League. Maybe they need one of these…

But seriously it’s pretty early to be talking trade bait.
While it is true that the best recent Sox teams all had 10+ wins by this time (2003, 2004, 2007, 2013, 2018), the situation is by no means irretrievable.

I was pessimistic about the starters, but Eovaldi, Wacha and Whithouck all looking pretty good so far. If we could just get a shot into that second syllable…

And as someone up thread said the hitters will hit.

But if this continues, I am all for trading JD (though we sorely need his coaching skills right about now), X, and anyone who will generate a return…

…And cranking up the youth movement.

 

[patinorange]

No trades yet. But I wouldn’t be opposed to some youth. And this offense will wake up.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Nope.

If folks don't want to talk about possible scenarios, or what Bloom may be compelled to do in in reaction to these possible scenarios, no one is forcing you. We are trying to recenter this conversation to realistic scenarios, and this kind of thing does not help.

Well, I’m glad you didn’t delete the post. That is the trade deadline date.

If people want to tell me what’s likely to happen, I’ll surely read it with interest.

 

[CR67dream]

Well, I’m glad you didn’t delete the post. That is the trade deadline date.

If people want to tell me what’s likely to happen, I’ll surely read it with interest.

Why you gotta be like this? Abs and I have been discussing ways to get a real discussion going here about what Bloom may be compelled to do depending on any number of scenarios. As I said above, I never would have kicked off such a conversation the way MTG did, but rather than lock the thread and just throw away the whole idea that big moves/changes are a possibility depending on performance, we are trying to move away from the reactionary/ doom and gloom and into some real analysis. Bloom has to be thinking ahead, why shouldn't we?

As Abs said to me earlier, and I quote, "a lot of people here say they like to think like both a fan and as the GM, well this is their chance to put their GM hat on. I'm pretty sure that Chaim is going through a similar, but much more informed and logical, process."

Honestly, maybe it's a lost cause. Anyone who feels that way is free to pass right on by and the thread will die on the vine.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

To expand on what CR quoted.
I'm pretty certain that every GM in baseball, as well as their counterparts in other sports, has an ever evolving "what if" list based on team and individual production, injuries, contract status, current and future payroll obligations, ml player production, standings, etc.. Unless they are incompetent, they also have the same list for every other team in baseball.

This can be a great thread for us to do the same.

 

[streeter88]

Well, I’m glad you didn’t delete the post. That is the trade deadline date.

If people want to tell me what’s likely to happen, I’ll surely read it with interest.

I thought your post was a brilliant piece of satire, even with the wrong JD. Who’da thunk we’d be pipped by Baltimore of all teams?

I am not a mod, but from my perspective in the cheap seats over here in Australia, it made me think - and laugh a bit.

But to get back on track, I propose a humble question - and an opinion. At what point does Bloom decide to start the youth movement and unload JD etc? I think June 15 or 60 game point - there’s a 10 game West Coast swing then three home series against OAK, STL and DET. At that point, things would probably be clear and the selling could start.

Edited for grammar

 

[BringBackMo]

We spent an entire offseason talking about Bloom’s priorities and decisions. I see absolutely no chance that anything about his or the organization’s thinking has changed because of the results of any 16 game sample size.

 

[CR67dream]

We spent an entire offseason talking about Bloom’s priorities and decisions. I see absolutely no chance that anything about his or the organization’s thinking has changed because of the results of any 16 game sample size.

I disagree. As Abs said, these things are ever evolving. It's not just wins and losses that affect these things, and nobody but perhaps the thread starter is suggesting this thread should be based on a 16 game sample. I mean, why not just consider it an extension of the offseason discussion?

But hey, that's fine. As I said, if you don't find it worth your time, just pass right on by.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

The Sox are clearly set up as a team that can pivot quickly. They have almost nobody signed long term. If they determine they aren’t competitors, they could make almost everyone on the roster available for trade. A series of trades similar to what the Cubs did last year doesn’t seem totally impossible, if it comes to that. I’d expect Eovaldi, Bogaerts, Martinez, and Hernandez to be the pieces most in demand. Pitching seems to be the clear area of need in what they’d be looking for in trades. But it’s really early, obviously. Not sure it’s really worth discussing right now; they should be looking to add pieces to be more competitive.

 

[CR67dream]

But it’s really early, obviously. Not sure it’s really worth discussing right now; they should be looking to add pieces to be more competitive.

What we have tried to do here is move away from the "seller" part of this as the central theme. Perhaps the thread's original framing is too much to overcome, but discussion of deals that could be made to make the team better is definitely something that could be discussed here. As I said above, the ideas I really want to hear are ones that will make the team better. I'm really struggling to understand the objections to what we've laid out here (beyond that original framing). Discussing possible scenarios a GM may face and moves that may be made as a season evolves is as old as SoSH itself.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Why you gotta be like this? Abs and I have been discussing ways to get a real discussion going here about what Bloom may be compelled to do depending on any number of scenarios. As I said above, I never would have kicked off such a conversation the way MTG did, but rather than lock the thread and just throw away the whole idea that big moves/changes are a possibility depending on performance, we are trying to move away from the reactionary/ doom and gloom and into some real analysis. Bloom has to be thinking ahead, why shouldn't we?

As Abs said to me earlier, and I quote, "a lot of people here say they like to think like both a fan and as the GM, well this is their chance to put their GM hat on. I'm pretty sure that Chaim is going through a similar, but much more informed and logical, process."

Honestly, maybe it's a lost cause. Anyone who feels that way is free to pass right on by and the thread will die on the vine.

It's about reasonably framing those scenarios. The trading deadline really is August 2. We (and everyone else) will have really played 104 games before the deadline. We really have only played 16 games thusfar. Any number of things can happen with any number of players on our team, necessitating fixing, or not fixing. (That includes a bad season, a good season, a step forward, or an injury/regression.)

Any number of things can happen to other teams, or to key players on other teams, suggesting better or worse trade partners. Is there anyone truly in firesale mode at the moment we want to trade to-acquire? (Besides the Marlins?) Is there anyone looking to buy when we want to sell?


I think Bloom and the front office are probably in a period of assessment - which isn't just analytical projection, but actually waiting to see how things actually resolve. Dalbec will hit or not. That impacts Cassas. Who many hit or not. Or they both may be injured and we'll consider a hot AAA bat elsewhere in the lineup. If that does not work, we may explore options through a trade. There are simply too many unknowns at this point to intelligently advocate, say, trading Dalbec to Team X for Prospect Y today. There is no obvious alignment as of this morming.

As far as the OP goes, yes, there are some players who will be free agents. These UFA players are: an uninjured Xander who opts out as he is planning to, JD, Eovaldi, Vazquez, Wacha, Hill, Strahm, Plawecki, Robles, Shaw.

If the team craters, and goes into a "sell everyone early" mode, I have every expectation it will be excactly like all the other times we have done this. Players with no reasonable future role on the team (especially unrestricted free agents who the Sox are not planning to resign) will be traded for the best return they can get, which are usually minor league players, or a rare in-season salary eating packge-deal, like Beckett/Lowell. In the last category, JBJ was that deal during the off-season. A club can only do so many of those, so the liklihood of that happening is low. The prospects we get will in part be determned by how they play this season, given the COVID shutdown of not too long ago.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

What we have tried to do here is move away from the "seller" part of this as the central theme. Perhaps the thread's original framing is too much to overcome, but discussion of deals that could be made to make the team better is definitely something that could be discussed here. As I said above, the ideas I really want to hear are ones that will make the team better. I'm really struggling to understand the objections to what we've laid out here (beyond that original framing). Discussing possible scenarios a GM may face and moves that may be made as a season evolves is as old as SoSH itself.

I think the difficulty in a discussion on what ifs at this point in the season lies not just with it being too early to really know what this Red Sox team is, but also too early to know what the rest of the league is. I think we can identify probable trade candidates on this roster based on contract status and value, but who do they get traded for? What teams are likely to be buyers and what teams are likely to be sellers in June/July? What will their needs be? If we have folks that have the level of awareness of other organizational rosters as we do about the Red Sox, there is ground for an interesting discussion. Otherwise, it will likely break down to wishcasting (of course, that's a SoSH specialty ).

The Yankees started 6-10 last year (good for last in the East). The Braves were 7-9 (4th). The Reds and Royals were leading their divisions after 16 games (9-7 each). Those teams all ended up in different places by the trade deadline, let alone the end of the season/post-season. I don't think this is a bad thread idea in the abstract, it's just too soon for it to really be fruitful or realistic.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I think the difficulty in a discussion on what ifs at this point in the season lies not just with it being too early to really know what this Red Sox team is, but also too early to know what the rest of the league is. I think we can identify probable trade candidates on this roster based on contract status and value, but who do they get traded for? What teams are likely to be buyers and what teams are likely to be sellers in June/July? What will their needs be? If we have folks that have the level of awareness of other organizational rosters as we do about the Red Sox, there is ground for an interesting discussion. Otherwise, it will likely break down to wishcasting (of course, that's a SoSH specialty ).

The Yankees started 6-10 last year (good for last in the East). The Braves were 7-9 (4th). The Reds and Royals were leading their divisions after 16 games (9-7 each). Those teams all ended up in different places by the trade deadline, let alone the end of the season/post-season. I don't think this is a bad thread idea in the abstract, it's just too soon for it to really be fruitful or realistic.

I don’t think it’s too early to start looking at potential prospects on other teams who may be blocked or who we might want to target. I don’t anticipate any movement on this front until after we see what Sale/Paxton can provide, if anything. But I don’t think it’s too early to start looking for potential fits for guys like JD. And clearly injuries may also play a role so a team that isn’t currently a fit could ultimately become one.

I view this thread as more of a placeholder than anything but this team doesn’t “sell” too often so it’s an interesting discussion for me when they do. Hopefully, this group picks it up and we don’t have to worry about this.

 

[joe dokes]

I don’t think it’s too early to start looking at potential prospects on other teams who may be blocked or who we might want to target. I don’t anticipate any movement on this front until after we see what Sale/Paxton can provide, if anything. But I don’t think it’s too early to start looking for potential fits for guys like JD. And clearly injuries may also play a role so a team that isn’t currently a fit could ultimately become one.

By definition, though, at this point in the season, that list of teams is limited to either the half-dozen or so that are actively not trying to win or to a wish list premsied on the other GM not watching baseball. ("The Braves bullpen is shaky. We need on OF. Maybe Acuna for Barnes, Diekman and Darwinson...?"). There's no harm, of course, but every possible outcome here is likely to be, "if [team] is [in it or out of it], and the Sox are out of it, then [trade]." Seems like a thin reed to support a discussion.

 

[amfox1]

One point to consider down the road is that, if the Red Sox are out of playoff contention early, the team is only approx. $8.5mm over the luxury tax threshold. Trading JDM and Wacha, for instance, and replacing them on the 26-man roster with Casas and Paxton or Sale with 1/3 of the season remaining would put the team under the threshold, assuming no other moves are made.

I would assume that, once the front office gives up on making the playoffs this season (should it occur), staying under the threshold this year will become a goal. Not the primary goal, but a goal.

 

[Niastri]

If still like to see the Sox sign Justin Upton. He'll give another outfield option to help Cora create positive matchups.

If he turns out to be more like the guy who got a contact worth over hundred million, then that greatly increases the chance of making the playoffs. If Upton is good and the Sox are bad, he is another guy they can trade for prospects. If he's terrible, he only cost us money and time, and it isn't like he's taking somebody good out of the lineup.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

If still like to see the Sox sign Justin Upton. He'll give another outfield option to help Cora create positive matchups.

If he turns out to be more like the guy who got a contact worth over hundred million, then that greatly increases the chance of making the playoffs. If Upton is good and the Sox are bad, he is another guy they can trade for prospects. If he's terrible, he only cost us money and time, and it isn't like he's taking somebody good out of the lineup.

I agree that it's probably a risk worth taking, but I also wonder why he's still out there. He was released over two weeks ago. The story at one point was he had suitors and wanted to go to a contender, but nothing has materialized yet. Seems weird.

 

[GB5]

Here is my out of the box thought: even if the Sox are in contention, and more likely if they are on the fringes of it, the Sox will make every effort to trade X…if they believe they are going to get outbid and he will leave. I don’t think Chaim is going to let an asset like that get away with no return.

 

[sezwho]

I'm not in panic mode and I'm not sure we get there: there is money and prospects and internal improvement yet to be used if appropriate. That said, I am curious what this board thinks of this topic and what ideas are generated. Depending upon performance and market opportunities it will be hard to identify moves on the margins at this point, but its not hard to think of 1 or 2 prospects (please please please Triston) making noise in the show and how that might impact our big ticket items and what (if anything) we might sell.

 

[BroodsSexton]

I am going to back up Mueller here since it was my idea. I was on the fence about creating this, because I am not the most rational individual after the shit show that was the Tampa Bay series. That being said, I think this can be a fun exercise. Obviously everyone is hoping we get a big laugh out of this thread come the deadline. That will mean the Sox are buyers, but what if they are sellers? I think X is the prized jewel that will be moved if they are out of contention. It seems as if X is going after as much money as possible (thought I could be wrong) so I would not worry about his signability if he was traded. Assuming Evoldi is healthy and effective I can see him also netting some pieces for the future. I think if Sale comes back and is healthy and throwing well, I still am not sure anyone would give up much for him. He does have a tendency to get injured. Then again, maybe Bloom just wants his contract off the books and he would be willing to eat a bit of money if some team was willing to help with that. I am still bullish on Dalbec. I think his hits will still come and given that he is cost controlled he can be useful still. That is not to say if the right offer comes along, the Sox should not jump on it. JDM seems like the kind of guy Bloom would move for a B or C prospect who ends up being very useful for this team. If the team is done come the deadline, I would have no issue trading Vaz. At that point it doesn't matter if the pitchers are comfortable throwing to Plawecki or Wong or anyone, the season is done. I am not sure if the Sox can get anything for Vaz given that both his defense and offense is suspect. I would add the following to your list.
Diekman
Barnes (assuming he remembers how to pitch)
JBJ (assuming he is playing well)

The next player is someone I can't see being traded, but stranger things have happen. Devers might be on the block. Once again I think it is very unlikely. The thinking would have to be that they either aren't interested in signing him or he is not interested in signing here. In that case the Sox can see what they get by offering Devers with a year and a half of control. In the off season, Bloom will have a ton of money and prospects to play with, so there is a chance the team can be competitive in 2023. Like I said it is unlikely, but it is an interesting thought imo.

So, basically, if the team is in the crapper but individual players are playing well, healthy and effective, the Sox will consider trade offers for them, and you don't have a problem trading them if it's a good trade. Where do I get your newsletter?

 

[lexrageorge]

Here is my out of the box thought: even if the Sox are in contention, and more likely if they are on the fringes of it, the Sox will make every effort to trade X…if they believe they are going to get outbid and he will leave. I don’t think Chaim is going to let an asset like that get away with no return.

I know I mentioned it upthread, but I really think you and others may be underestimating how difficult it will be to trade Bogaerts.

First complication is that he has a full no-trade. We honestly have no idea where he would be willing to agree as a trade destination. Contender? East coast? West coast? Midwest? But regardless that alone will limit the number of teams to which the Sox could talk to; Xander could even limit the discussion to 0 teams and there would be literally nothing the Sox could do about it. If the Sox are in contention, it seems likely the list of trade targets would be minimal.

The second complication is the opt-out, so any team trading for him would run the risk of X being a short term rental. I guess a team could work out an extension as part of the trade, but based on what we know, the asking price for an extension is likely to be high in terms of both dollars and years, which again will suppress his trade value.

I will not rule out the possibility that a strong contender may be willing to offer up something if they feel that Xander is a key missing piece. But it's unclear how exactly the new CBA and playoff format is going to impact the price teams are willing to pay for rentals.

 

[YTF]

16 games in, 2 games under .500 and add a result of years of observation on this board (including an innumerable number of "we're still winning this game!" posts in game threads (Narrator: they did not win all those games)) I will with a good deal of confidence state that a lot - A LOT - of people in this board are not fully grounded in reality.

Look, I get it: it's a long season, shit happens, and you never know. But, in this case, I think we are all safe in saying that this team is not going to match the accomplishments of the 2018 team, the 2007 team, or even the 2013 team. Could they match the 2004 team? Sure. Are they likely to? No.

Sometimes it's healthy to admit that this team does not have what it takes in a given season. To me, this is one of those times. If hope is still springing eternal for you, I'll tip my non-existent cap. But, to me, this was a 4th place team coming into the year and NOTHING I've seen has given me any hope they I was wrong.

If you think they can still get into the playoffs (I'll remind you that, yes, it's 6 teams, but that the AL East does not have to send three teams to the tournament, despite what normally happens), then good for you. But some of us see this team as nothing more than a placeholder. Thus this thread (which we all knew was coming, just maybe came a little earlier than some might like). Participation is not mandatory.

You are 100% correct in your assessment of the unhinged nature that runs rampant in game threads. It's the one place here at SoSH where many things not permitted elsewhere are allowed. We're sometimes reminded by the mods here (and rightly so) not to game thread on the main board so IMO this thread title just 2 1/2 weeks into the season combined with the opening sentence..."@Ganthem suggested it in the game thread, so here it is:" invites and deserves a bit of scrutiny.

Second paragraph...Again you're 100% correct. At 16 games in, " it IS a long season, shit happens and you never know". With that point made, why are we all safe in saying anything at this point? What was expected of the 2013 team at this point in that season that we should abandon hope for this team?

Third paragraph..."Sometimes it's healthy to admit that this team does not have what it takes in a given season." After 16 games how much worse do you think this team is from the team that started last season? While I've been vocal about JBJ's bat, there is no denying the defensive value that he brings while the offensive upgrade at second should replace the production lost in Renfroe. While the bench isn't stellar, the expectations from Arroyo in the utility role seems favorable to Marwin Gonzales and Danny Santana. Where do you think this pitching staff stacks up compared to last season at this time? My point being that I don't think that this team is any more disadvantaged than last year's squad at this point.

Yes I do think they still have a shot at the playoffs. There's work to be done for sure, this teams is not yet complete. That said they can certainly fall flat and find themselves looking to shed payroll with only the future to look forward to, but (and stop me if you've heard this before) we're 16 games into the season and 2 games under .500 and while participation here is not mandatory, I elected to opt in.

 

[Ganthem]

Perhaps we need to start a new thread about if a sell off thread should exist or not this early in the season?

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

As soon as training camp ends every single team very likely has a very flexible plan on how to proceed throughout the season that is constantly being reevaluated based on injuries, team chemistry, position for a post-season run, along with insider information on current team's pending FA class, prospects that are improving or regressing, etc....
It's absolutely far too early for Bloom to be doing anything other than exploring some trades to improve the team , more than to start dealing to improve the farm. I'm certain they're looking at it from all angles but at this point they likely won't be dealing assets until early July IMO.

My goal as a fan---fantasy GM-- was to not fall more than 10 games back of the division leader by the end of May. Paxton and Sale show up and then to evaluate the situation over the following month. In those 4 weeks, if there's not a drastic improvement, then they become sellers.

 

[Jerry’s Curl]

Trading JDM is a must. I’d also entertain trading X for the right package. We seriously need major-league RF and SP prospects. I really don’t think X is coming back, especially if this team stinks it up all year. We have Story and we could soon have Nick Yorke at 2B. Give Devers what he wants. He’s the cornerstone of this team.

 

[CR67dream]

Perhaps we need to start a new thread about if a sell off thread should exist or not this early in the season?

That's really not necessary, as it obviously is way too early, which is why we are trying to refocus the discussion into a broader theme. A backwash thread would be nothing but a headache, so I'd appreciate it if we didn't go there.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I don’t really see the point in trading players like Martinez; it severely weakens the team in that there really isn’t any viable replacement to take their place. It only makes sense to move players early on if you have in-house replacements, and they can help address areas of need. If you think Casas is ready, he should replace Dalbec.

 

[Jerry’s Curl]

I don’t really see the point in trading players like Martinez; it severely weakens the team in that there really isn’t any viable replacement to take their place. It only makes sense to move players early on if you have in-house replacements, and they can help address areas of need. If you think Casas is ready, he should replace Dalbec.

Because Martinez is declining at this stage of his career and would be valuable to a National League team in contention that needs an upgrade at DH. I wouldn’t sell him for peanuts, but if we can get a good player(s) in return, I’d consider it.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I mean, sure, I guess? But the Red Sox also need a DH. So trading Martinez for whatever he brings back (probably not a ton) and giving playing time to Travis Shaw or whomever doesn’t seem all that worthwhile. I think the Sox are at the phase where they need more major league caliber players, and less prospects. If they could staple Barnes to JD and get an upgrade at SP in return, maybe.

I’d be looking mostly at moving guys like Eovaldi and Hernandez for players who the team would control longer. Nate to the Padres for Mike Clevinger? Something like that.

 

[streeter88]

The struggle I have with trying to make the team better early in the season is - as mentioned elsewhere in the thread and in the offensive woes thread, the offense is very poor at this point. But we also need viable starting pitchers. So who to trade for, and anyway as covered upthread (RHF? RR?), who would even be sellers this early in the season?

The contrary point of view is that the hitters will hit, and the rotation will hopefully be bolstered in June by the return of either or both of Sale and Paxton. But as SLT mentioned upthread, we need to be less than 10 games behind the division leaders to have any sort of chance. So the team has to tread water / steal wins / figure out what is wrong with the lineup / bring up some youth from the minors to maintain that distance until June.

But I think we will be sellers by then, because I have no confidence that Sale and Paxton will return or be viable contributors. I have more confidence that the hitters will hit, but will it be enough?

Anyway you slice it, I would be a terrible GM - glad that somebody has it under control (or not?)