Everything Must Go? The 2022 Red Sox as Sellers?

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EvilEmpire

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Would you be willing to move for a few months in order to play baseball on a playoff team instead of a loser trading away it's best players?
If I intend to opt out and test the market? No. Not even a little bit.

My stuff is here. Wife/family considerations. Living out of a suitcase and leaving family behind for a couple of few months is no big deal, and I've done it for much, much longer, but I wouldn't do it at all if I didn't have a huge incentive to do so.

For Bogaerts, I'm sure playing on a playoff team is nice, but he probably expects to do that with the Red Sox this year. A place where he is comfortable and the fans love him. Will Boston be eliminated from playoff contention by the trade deadline? I seriously doubt that.

Making the playoffs is probably much less fun as a rental for a few months where he has to get used to new teammates and maybe learn a new league.

Now maybe the Red Sox find a team that wants to give Bogaerts a big market-rate extension, and it is a team that he wants to go to. More 'new forever home' than short term rental. I'm sure he'd do that. But I think that might be a really hard deal to find. Seems unlikely.
 

Ganthem

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I did some poking around and I wonder if we can pry Ky Bush from the Angels for Bogey. The Angels are ahead in the division by 1.5 games. If they are still ahead come the trade deadline, upgrading from their current shortstop to Bogey could really propel them forward. Maybe it wouldn't be a straight one on one swap and the sox would have to put a sweetner in there.
 

tims4wins

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They're obviously not going to do anything for at least another two months, but it is becoming more obvious by the day that this team is not a contender.

It's really depressing when all hope is lost prior to the ASB. I realize we're pretty spoiled fans, not just for the Sox, but for Boston sports in general.

But not having meaningful baseball to watch all summer sucks.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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The good news is that the team isn’t tied up into many long term contracts. The bad news is they don’t really have many players under contract long term, and most of the prospects are at least a few years away. Wonder what next years team will look like. The returns on Bloom’s biggest deals so far (Betts and Benintendi) don’t look super stellar, guess we shall see.
 
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Yelling At Clouds

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So if we’re going down this road, there are two obvious potential buyers with holes at shortstop - St. Louis and today’s opponent, the LAA of A. Everyone else (who is good) seems pretty set, though someone will surely correct me if I’m forgetting anyone.

Also, someone can correct me here, too, but with the exception of Downs, Bloom has (in “Sell” trades) mostly received post-prospects with some MLB experience (Pivetta, Verdugo, Franchy) or second- or third-tier minor leaguers who are believed to be on the verge of a breakout (German, Potts, Winkowski, et al). Who knows what he’ll do going forward, obviously, but maybe some of you with more time and inclination can start gaming this out.
 
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Petagine in a Bottle

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So if we’re going down this road, there are two obvious potential buyers with holes at shortstop - St. Louis and today’s opponent, the LAA of A. Everyone else (who is good) seems pretty set, though someone will surely correct me if I’m forgetting anyone.

Also, someone can correct me here, too, but with the exception of Downs, Bloom has (in “Sell” trades) mostly received post-prospects with some MLB experience (Pivetta, Verdugo, Franchy) or second- or third-tier minor leaguers who are believed to be on the verge of a breakout (German, Potts, Winkowski, et al). Who knows what he’ll do going forward, obviously, but maybe some of you with more time and inclination can start gaming this out.
I think the Giants are a potential match.They’ve got Crawford but he’s been bad, he’s 35, last year of deal. Phillies perhaps too although they hardly look like a contender.
 

jon abbey

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The aforementioned A's are the ones who should be trading a good catcher, Sean Murphy, with two stud prospects coming up fast behind him and Murphy starting to get expensive. They are not going to want veterans in return, though.
 

BigSoxFan

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Does STL or LAAAAAAAAAA have any catching prospects who are blocked? Outfielders? First basemen? Pitchers?
I think STL is a natural fit for a Bogaerts trade, if Bloom ever reaches that point. DeJong is hitting like .120 and was trash last year as well. They have some really intriguing IF prospects in Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker. However, don’t think they’d be willing to give up either for a rental unless we added more value.
 

moondog80

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So if they do become sellers, the Mets and Angels look like potential marks. Both teams off to great starts with some pressure to win and a history spending, I could easily see them in major GFIN mode. And the Angels have a pretty major hole at SS. Maybe Padres, though they've made so many deals the past few years I wonder if they're at the breaking point as far as shedding years of cost control.
 

Niastri

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Because of the expanded wild card, there are more teams who will be buyers than sellers. This should help increase the value received. I wouldn't be unhappy if Bogaerts gets traded to a contender for a top prospect nearly ready for the majors and a couple toolsy lower level prospects.

Looking at trades with similarly valuable players from last year:

Bogaerts should be somewhere around Berrios in value, who got two top 70 prospects, but for a year and a half rental.

Another comp might be Joey Gallo, traded for four prospects at the deadline, again for a year and a half.

Comparisons for good players not on Bogaerts level traded as rentals were Rizzo and Schwarber. Rizzo for two prospects and Schwarber for a minor league pitcher after the rest of the trade carousel had stopped spinning (kind of a theme for Bloom moves, counting the Story signing).

It's hard to say how valuable Bogaerts would be compared to those trades last year.

If the Sox aren't in contention, I hope they get maximum value for all their veterans and tank away into the top of the draft.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Bogaerts has the no trade though and is a FA to be - I don’t think the comparisons to guys like Gallo and Berrios works. Schwarber and Rizzo are good comps, and gives you an idea of how the return may not be nearly as much as we think.
 

Rovin Romine

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Bogaerts has the no trade though and is a FA to be - I don’t think the comparisons to guys like Gallo and Berrios works. Schwarber and Rizzo are good comps, and gives you an idea of how the return may not be nearly as much as we think.
Schwarber was injured and came with that major queston mark. Rizzo was a first baseman with an OPS+ of 111, so matches were limited. That's a bit different than a shortstop who will likely be OPS+ ing at 125 or so. Any club making a run at the post season now has their starting SS as their backup infielder.
 

Niastri

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Bogaerts has the no trade though and is a FA to be - I don’t think the comparisons to guys like Gallo and Berrios works. Schwarber and Rizzo are good comps, and gives you an idea of how the return may not be nearly as much as we think.
The fact Bogaerts is a more valuable player and there will be more teams looking to improve is why I think he'll be somewhere above Schwarber and Rizzo in value... Probably not quite where Gallo and Berrios are, if only for the years of control. Berrios was with 3.3 bWAR last season, his best season was 3.6. Bogaerts was 4.9 last year and his best year was 6.3.

Gallo, Rizzo and Schwarber stack up even worse. Max Scherzer might be a better comp, based on bWAR, but he was stapled to Turner so that trade was hard to read.

I would be highly disappointed if they could only get a return similar to Rizzo for a much better player in Bogaerts.

I would start to wonder who should be replacing Bloom in the off-season...
 

Rovin Romine

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Not that it matters, but Aldo Ramirez probably was too. I'd definitely hope the Sox could do better than Aldo Ramirez for a half season or so of Xander Bogaerts.
Well, a team would be getting half a season of a premium SS, plus a negotiating window with them before they hit FA. X would have to waive his no-trade clause, but he may wish to, depending on the location and the team. Especially if his agent thinks they'll be a bidder for him in the off-season, or if some post-season heroics might up the price on the FA market.

At the end of the day these things are highly contextual. How good a match? How desperate the buyer? Which is one reason why the thread is premature; even assuming the Sox are sellers, we have no indication who the 3 best buyers might be, since injury and underperformance on contending clubs can't be known yet.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Well, a team would be getting half a season of a premium SS, plus a negotiating window with them before they hit FA. X would have to waive his no-trade clause, but he may wish to, depending on the location and the team. Especially if his agent thinks they'll be a bidder for him in the off-season, or if some post-season heroics might up the price on the FA market.

At the end of the day these things are highly contextual. How good a match? How desperate the buyer? Which is one reason why the thread is premature; even assuming the Sox are sellers, we have no indication who the 3 best buyers might be, since injury and underperformance on contending clubs can't be known yet.
I guess Machado is probably too far back to use as a comparison? Orioles got 5 prospects for him. And maybe the team who needs a SS also needs a DH. Sox could also take back salary.

Like you said, way too soon.
 

mauf

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I guess Machado is probably too far back to use as a comparison? Orioles got 5 prospects for him. And maybe the team who needs a SS also needs a DH. Sox could also take back salary.

Like you said, way too soon.
It’s not just the vintage of the trade; it’s MM’s caliber at the time. Back when the Orioles traded MM, he looked like a pantheon-level HOFer just entering his prime years. X and MM are good comps for each other now, but neither is a good comp for 25-year old MM.
 

dynomite

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So...modest buyers?
Weird — I thought the season ended in late April?

… Anyway, let’s see where things stand at the All Star Break. With the 3rd Wild Card as we all know 87ish-92ish wins will probably be good enough for the postseason, and with Sale and Paxton coming back and Casas likely up from AAA for the 2nd half, there’s reason to believe the team will continue to improve even before adding outside pieces.

Trading Xander, even if they’re contending, would be very Rays — a little like the Nomar trade in ‘04. Despite how that one worked out I hope they don’t do it unless the team completely falls apart in the next month. As discussed above, the return last season for Rizzo and Kris Bryant and Javy Baez were not massive (or at least don’t seem so at the moment). Meanwhile, the Astros hung onto Correa last season and he helped them make a World Series. And I think the fan base is still burned by the Mookie trade and would react negatively to yet another seeming salary dump for a big market team.
 

Pat Spillane

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Weird — I thought the season ended in late April?

… Anyway, let’s see where things stand at the All Star Break. With the 3rd Wild Card as we all know 87ish-92ish wins will probably be good enough for the postseason, and with Sale and Paxton coming back and Casas likely up from AAA for the 2nd half, there’s reason to believe the team will continue to improve even before adding outside pieces.

Trading Xander, even if they’re contending, would be very Rays — a little like the Nomar trade in ‘04. Despite how that one worked out I hope they don’t do it unless the team completely falls apart in the next month. As discussed above, the return last season for Rizzo and Kris Bryant and Javy Baez were not massive (or at least don’t seem so at the moment). Meanwhile, the Astros hung onto Correa last season and he helped them make a World Series. And I think the fan base is still burned by the Mookie trade and would react negatively to yet another seeming salary dump for a big market team.

I think there is always a right time to get rid of a player. What age does Xander regress with a potential albatross of a contract. Pedroia was an albatross for the last few years, we got lucky getting our with Pedro. What realistically does Xander have left in productive years vs the contract he would take
 

moondog80

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If the Sox end up as buyers, who is this year's Schwarber/Bryant/Rizzo? Josh Bell? Benintendi?
 

dynomite

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I think there is always a right time to get rid of a player. What age does Xander regress with a potential albatross of a contract. Pedroia was an albatross for the last few years, we got lucky getting our with Pedro. What realistically does Xander have left in productive years vs the contract he would take
Right, those are always the questions you need to ask when discussing a contract that will probably be worth more than $250 million.

i’m just saying that if as seems likely Xander is going to hit free agency, I hope the Red Sox keep him during the season and extend a qualifying offer instead of trading him for a mid-level prospect.
 

Max Power

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I think there is always a right time to get rid of a player. What age does Xander regress with a potential albatross of a contract. Pedroia was an albatross for the last few years, we got lucky getting our with Pedro. What realistically does Xander have left in productive years vs the contract he would take
He's very similar in body type, hitting skills, and defensive ability to Derek Jeter. Jeter was still a very good player through his age 35 season and still acceptable for a couple years after that. I don't see any reason why Xander wouldn't be productive into his mid-30s, which would be 5 or 6 more seasons.
 

chawson

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If the Sox end up as buyers, who is this year's Schwarber/Bryant/Rizzo? Josh Bell? Benintendi?
My best guess at this answer given our current roster is Adam Duvall. Though he’s having a wretched season so far.

I don’t think Benintendi plays for this team again. Even putting aside any potential weirdness of his return, the outfield is pretty left-handed as is. Add to that a possible Franchy breakout, Duran needing some at the ML level and Casas knocking on the door (which would push Franchy to the outfield), I can’t see it happening.

Sadly, I think Beni’s a perfect deadline target for the Yankees. He’s always hit well there and his contact rate helps their lineup. They could also use the outfield help. Hicks is busted, Gallo hasn’t really gotten it done, and Benintendi would give them a pretty similar package to what Brett Gardner did half a decade ago. As with Rizzo, the troll factor (while not insignificant) would be masked by the perfect roster fit — and that fan base loves a good deadline deal for an Italian-American.
 

walt in maryland

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Weird — I thought the season ended in late April?

… Anyway, let’s see where things stand at the All Star Break. With the 3rd Wild Card as we all know 87ish-92ish wins will probably be good enough for the postseason, and with Sale and Paxton coming back and Casas likely up from AAA for the 2nd half, there’s reason to believe the team will continue to improve even before adding outside pieces.

Trading Xander, even if they’re contending, would be very Rays — a little like the Nomar trade in ‘04. Despite how that one worked out I hope they don’t do it unless the team completely falls apart in the next month. As discussed above, the return last season for Rizzo and Kris Bryant and Javy Baez were not massive (or at least don’t seem so at the moment). Meanwhile, the Astros hung onto Correa last season and he helped them make a World Series. And I think the fan base is still burned by the Mookie trade and would react negatively to yet another seeming salary dump for a big market team.
You probably know this, but Xander has a no-trade clause and can block any deal.
 

walt in maryland

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He's very similar in body type, hitting skills, and defensive ability to Derek Jeter. Jeter was still a very good player through his age 35 season and still acceptable for a couple years after that. I don't see any reason why Xander wouldn't be productive into his mid-30s, which would be 5 or 6 more seasons.
I'm amazed more people don't mention this. Xander is very similar to Jeter, and no doubt has the same pride about being a shortstop. FWIW, Xander's defensive numbers (as well as Raffy's) are looking much improved over the first 40 games. In Xander's case, I wonder if the Sox have made adjustments in positioning/shifting to address his range. He catches everything he gets to
 

Yelling At Clouds

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If the Sox end up as buyers, who is this year's Schwarber/Bryant/Rizzo? Josh Bell? Benintendi?
I’m not the first to say it, but it seems like given the number of potential roster holes on the 2023 team, they’d be wise to look at players who aren’t half-season rentals.

Who? I have no idea. Ian Happ, maybe? Won’t be cheap.
 

Ganthem

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I hope we are buyers, but there is a lot of baseball to play until the trade deadline. If the Sox offense can be consistent, and I don't mean scoring 16 runs per game, they can gain some ground especially in the Wildcard race. If they are going to fluctuate between red hot and ice cold with no middle ground like last year, they won't be able to make up the ground enough to be buyers.
 
If this team is buying at the deadline I think we're most likely looking for bullpen help. I assume the Red Sox contending at the deadline implies that most or all of Story, Kike, Verdugo, and Vaz are hitting at or around recent career norms. If that's the case, then the only real holes in the lineup are JBJ and Dalbec, although Franchy's improvement plus the possible addition of Casas potentially solves 1st base. The rest of the lineup is good enough that the Sox can afford a couple of mediocre to bad bats -- that's exactly what happened last year and they did very well.

I think a Xander trade is very unlikely if the Sox are contending, although I think the returns might be better this year than they were last year. There are fewer impact bats likely to be on the market, and there should be more buyers this year.
 

moondog80

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I’m not the first to say it, but it seems like given the number of potential roster holes on the 2023 team, they’d be wise to look at players who aren’t half-season rentals.
If the right trade is out there, sure. But making a Schawarber-esue deal where they give up say, the 30th best prospect in the system for a rental would not exclude them from also doing something bigger.
 

Ganthem

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If this team is buying at the deadline I think we're most likely looking for bullpen help. I assume the Red Sox contending at the deadline implies that most or all of Story, Kike, Verdugo, and Vaz are hitting at or around recent career norms. If that's the case, then the only real holes in the lineup are JBJ and Dalbec, although Franchy's improvement plus the possible addition of Casas potentially solves 1st base. The rest of the lineup is good enough that the Sox can afford a couple of mediocre to bad bats -- that's exactly what happened last year and they did very well.

I think a Xander trade is very unlikely if the Sox are contending, although I think the returns might be better this year than they were last year. There are fewer impact bats likely to be on the market, and there should be more buyers this year.
The Sox primary needs next year are going to be in the outfield and catcher. Obviously if Franchy keeps going like he is, then he becomes an outfield option. The good news is that outfielders in comparison to other positions such as Catcher or front line starter are relatively cheaper to acquire in terms of prospects. That means Bloom can keep the powder dry and use it for a catcher.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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If this team is buying at the deadline I think we're most likely looking for bullpen help. I assume the Red Sox contending at the deadline implies that most or all of Story, Kike, Verdugo, and Vaz are hitting at or around recent career norms. If that's the case, then the only real holes in the lineup are JBJ and Dalbec, although Franchy's improvement plus the possible addition of Casas potentially solves 1st base. The rest of the lineup is good enough that the Sox can afford a couple of mediocre to bad bats -- that's exactly what happened last year and they did very well.

I think a Xander trade is very unlikely if the Sox are contending, although I think the returns might be better this year than they were last year. There are fewer impact bats likely to be on the market, and there should be more buyers this year.
To the bolded, if Franchy's improvement continues and Casas is ready to contribute, that could potentially solve both "holes" in the lineup without need of a trade.
 

chawson

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I’m not the first to say it, but it seems like given the number of potential roster holes on the 2023 team, they’d be wise to look at players who aren’t half-season rentals.

Who? I have no idea. Ian Happ, maybe? Won’t be cheap.
I think you’re right about this strategy. But there seem to be fewer guys that make this list than there used to be, after the league's low-key spending freeze and sudden offseason buying spree of a lot of bad teams (DET, TEX, CHC, and MIA to some degree).

Ignoring albatross contracts (Moustakas, Andrus, et al.) and players who signed multi-year FA deals before this season, the criteria would be 1) a bad 2022 team’s Arb2 guy who 2) doesn't have enough team control to be on their next good team but is 3) (formerly) productive enough to have earned a pricey arbitration salary making him 4) too expensive to keep around for 2023. Happ is a good one.

If the standings remain what they are (no sure bet), the guys that fit that description on teams with playoff odds currently under 12% are:

Catchers
Mitch Garver
Carson Kelly
Tom Murphy

First Basemen
Garrett Cooper (1B/OF)
Trey Mancini (1B/OF)
Christian Walker

Infielders
Brian Anderson
Jeimer Candelario
Kyle Farmer
Garrett Hampson
Tony Kemp
Adalberto Mondesi
Amed Rosario

Outfielders
Willie Calhoun
Ian Happ
Jordan Luplow
Franmil Reyes (DH)
Juan Soto
Jesse Winker

Starters
Shane Bieber
Luis Castillo
Brad Keller
Tyler Mahle
Frankie Montas
Luke Weaver

Relievers
Anthony Bass
Luis Cessa
Dylan Floro
Amir Garrett
Noe Ramirez
Caleb Smith
Drew Steckenrider
Robert Stephenson
Chris Stratton
Lou Trivino

We talked about Garrett Cooper a bunch last deadline. I still think he's a great fit, especially if we're cutting ties with Dalbec.
 

effectivelywild

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I'm amazed more people don't mention this. Xander is very similar to Jeter, and no doubt has the same pride about being a shortstop. FWIW, Xander's defensive numbers (as well as Raffy's) are looking much improved over the first 40 games. In Xander's case, I wonder if the Sox have made adjustments in positioning/shifting to address his range. He catches everything he gets to
I mentioned this in another thread but The Athletic had an interesting article the other day about the offseason work that Bogaerts (and Devers) put in working on their defense. Xander's work in particular seemed to be focused on his pre-pitch stance and overall mechanics.
 

BringBackMo

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Mods: Please move all of today's reasoned, sober trade deadline analysis to a new thread. Let's keep this one the dumpster fire born of panic and hysteria it was meant to be. Thank you.
 

Ganthem

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Mods: Please move all of today's reasoned, sober trade deadline analysis to a new thread. Let's keep this one the dumpster fire born of panic and hysteria it was meant to be. Thank you.
This thread was born out of a rational analysis of where the Sox were at and the hole they had dug. This thread might still be relevant. It is awesome that they have gone on a hot streak, but if they can't remain consistent from here on out and emulate last year by having red hot streaks and ice cold streaks and nothing in between, then this thread becomes very relevant. Even if the Sox were leading by 20 games at this point there is nothing wrong with having a what if discussion. That is part of the fun of baseball. Just because you don't agree with something doesn't mean it is a raging dumpster fire.
 

bsj

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I am not going to kill the person who started this thread. All we do is shout "new threads, new threads" and then when someone starts one that was highly speculative yet entirely logical based on the offseason this team had and the completely correlative start to the season, we crucify them.

Not me. I am super glad this thread no longer seems relevant. I tip my cap to the SoSHer who took the bullet to move the fates to make it so.
 

YTF

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This thread was born out of a rational analysis of where the Sox were at and the hole they had dug. This thread might still be relevant. It is awesome that they have gone on a hot streak, but if they can't remain consistent from here on out and emulate last year by having red hot streaks and ice cold streaks and nothing in between, then this thread becomes very relevant. Even if the Sox were leading by 20 games at this point there is nothing wrong with having a what if discussion. That is part of the fun of baseball. Just because you don't agree with something doesn't mean it is a raging dumpster fire.
This thread was born on a day that the team was 2 games under .500 in April.
 

pk1627

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I hope we are buyers, but there is a lot of baseball to play until the trade deadline. If the Sox offense can be consistent, and I don't mean scoring 16 runs per game, they can gain some ground especially in the Wildcard race. If they are going to fluctuate between red hot and ice cold with no middle ground like last year, they won't be able to make up the ground enough to be buyers.
Suddenly there’s a lot of baseball to be played.
 
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