One of my favorite parts of the Port Cellar is that it seems like every poster who writes here is better informed, watches more basketball, and has stronger opinions on various players than I do and I learn a lot. Reading the opinions in the draft game thread on guys I have never seen in my life except for maybe the five minute highlight clip on youtube got me thinking that it would be an interesting exercise to look at some old predictions from NBA draft threads and talk about what we learned, whether people's lenses for evaluating talent have changed, case studies etc.
This is not meant to be a gotcha thread cataloguing every poster's worst draft take. Ive had mostly bad takes on this board, being absolutely heartbroken at the Kyrie trade and being certain Jaylen Brown was going to bust. I just thought it would be interesting to use past predictions as a means of figuring out what if anything we can rely on or not rely on when projecting NBA players. I have also always been very suspicious of the way "cieling" and "floor" discourse works in the NBA, because it usually seems to be way off and unhelpful so I thought it would also be a potentially interesting angle to look at who seemed like the high floor players.
the 2017 thread
the 2018 thread
the 2016 thread
To start, looking at the 2017 draft thread here are some takes:
The obvious big surprise this year was Fultz disappearing for like three years. But beyond that we had some big time busts in Dennis Smith Jr. and Josh Jackson. And obviously Tatum. Tatum in particular has made me question whether anyone can project defense well. He was supposedly going to be below average.
Some interesting ones from the 2018 thread:
From 2016:
This is not meant to be a gotcha thread cataloguing every poster's worst draft take. Ive had mostly bad takes on this board, being absolutely heartbroken at the Kyrie trade and being certain Jaylen Brown was going to bust. I just thought it would be interesting to use past predictions as a means of figuring out what if anything we can rely on or not rely on when projecting NBA players. I have also always been very suspicious of the way "cieling" and "floor" discourse works in the NBA, because it usually seems to be way off and unhelpful so I thought it would also be a potentially interesting angle to look at who seemed like the high floor players.
the 2017 thread
the 2018 thread
the 2016 thread
To start, looking at the 2017 draft thread here are some takes:
I don't agree the qualms about his shooting have not been put to sleep. A .580 FT% on 5.6 attempts per game is much more of a red flag about his shooting than a .435 3P% on half the attempts is a green flag. We've been through this before, but it would almost unprecedented for someone like Jackson to become a good shooter. As far as I've seen, it's like Pierce, and that's it. (Correct me if I'm missing someone). I like Jackson - I love the passing at his age, I think he'll be a good defender, but the shooting remains a scare-point for me. If he was as good a free throw shooter as Tatum though, he'd be a pretty sure-fire number one overall for me.
I understand this and I am a believer that FT% does play a role in projecting future growth in 3-point FG%.......however when that 3-point shooting has shown dramatic improvement over the course of a season this is a much more reliable indicator as it is actually his 3-point shooting which is showing improvement.
There is also a much longer list than only Pierce. Chris Webber and Karl Malone were both sub-.500 FT% shooters in college who became good to excellent face-up perimeter shooters. In their day, 3-point shooting was discouraged among bigs so we will never truly know how well they would have expanded their range however face-up mid-range shooting was a strength in their games in particular Malone. There are many others off the top of my head Bruce Bowen......we are seeing it right now with Jaylen Brown. Shooting a basketball is one of the most easily improved skills as it's primary function is repetition which can be accomplished with practice as teams now employ coaches specifically toward improving this skill. This was not the case years ago.
We've watched Jackson all season. He's not taking wide open 3's.....he is creating these shots off the dribble and making them at a tremendous rate for 3 months now. Is that luck? Or is that improvement? Last night he showed shot making that was not evident in November or December......mid-range jumper off a crossover, a step-back 3 off the dribble and another deep 2 baseline jumper off the dribble. We are seeing evidence of improvement on these shots.....I don't see how only a slight improvement in a different shot (FT) negates the actual improvement he's shown in the shotmaking on jump shots.
Using FT% as a baseline in projecting these improvement is a valid position......until those improvements have already taken place. I expect his FT% to improve as it does for most 18-19 year olds but his 3-point shooting already has as evidence by his entire freshman season.
Ball may struggle to stay in front of a few of the truly elite athletic point guards, but not everyone is Russell Westbrook. His combination of size, effort, defensive awareness, and ability to switch makes him very promising defensively however. Off-ball, and perimeter defense are more important than ever, and those are all areas where Ball excels.
I agree that he's not going to be Chris Paul on defense, but he looks like a plus defensive prospect to me. Plus as Eddie Jurak notes, he may often end up guarding bigger/slower guys anyway. His size gives teams a lot of flexibility with whom to pair him with in the backcourt.
Apologies in advance for anyone who is quoted here, the point is to provoke some discussion, not to dunk on people who turned out to not have a crystal ball into the future.It certainly seems like Ball is consensus top 3 in mock drafts, but I wouldn't be surprised if there's significantly greater variance in how NBA teams rate him. He really is the most unorthodox elite prospect I can really think of in recent memory. For as much as I've raved about watching him here, and bagged on Dennis Smith Jr., it's easier for me to envision that DSJ's red flags will be solved by NBA spacing and a non-clusterfuck environment than it is Lonzo will greatly improve his lateral quickness and his ability to run the pick and roll.
For me, it's Fultz <big gap> Jackson <big gap> then Tatum, who has a more tenuous grasp on #3, with Ball and DSJ in the conversation for #4, and Isaac and Markkanen behind them. I think the Ainge tries hard to move the pick if it's not Fultz.
The obvious big surprise this year was Fultz disappearing for like three years. But beyond that we had some big time busts in Dennis Smith Jr. and Josh Jackson. And obviously Tatum. Tatum in particular has made me question whether anyone can project defense well. He was supposedly going to be below average.
Some interesting ones from the 2018 thread:
Jaren Jackson has been the odd man out of the discussions here about the top half of the lottery, but he's gotta be top 7 at this point. Not quite Bamba protecting the rim, but he's close and he's a better perimeter defender. His shooting touch looks real- 44.6% from 3 on 2.6 attempts per game, and shooting 81% from the line. If he was just an elite rim protector who can also defend in space with a good shooting touch, he'd be good prospect, but he did this last night:
I did not know he could do that.
Yeah, there's no guarantee that Doncic ever becomes a major athlete. He may top out as Gordon Hayward+, which is still a damned good result. Ayton is just a monster, and that's not going away. The question with him is the motor one, will he bust ass enough to maximize his potential?
Ayton is one of those players where I think it's going to matter where he ends up. If he goes to a shithole like Sacramento his career is likely going to have a very different arc, whereas I think guys like Doncic and (especially) Bagley are going to be stars no matter what.
So I think some of Jabari Parker's failures got transposed onto Tatum. I wonder if there is a bit of that for Bagley.
I am super skeptical he can defend wings, and he's not big enough to play center, so you have to think he's gonna out althetic NBA fours. I'm just not seeing that as something I want to bet on over some of these other guys.
In a worse draft he would be doing better, but if I want a big all the others vs Carter seem better bets at the next level.
It could be he's just got a great nose for the basket and board and his high energy just pests him vs bigger guys and his motor let's him bully smaller.
I see a super raw guy without an NBA role. I'm not remotely shocked if you disagree here, I am not super confident in this.
But I would bet on all the other guys first.
Carter I think, and so seemingly does everyone, has the Al Horford mold. More confident he can shoot, and more confident he can defend, and more confident he can pass.
I'd wager the ceiling would normally say Bagley but then everyone is watching Al in the playoffs, and kill it.
Milton is my pick; big combo guard that can play D, shoot from outside and create for others. His game matches the way this team is playing right now.
I love Bagley, he's my #1 with Bamba close behind. His perimeter shooting is being severely underrated and watching him switch to defend 1's and 2's last year made me a true believer in his game. I really like Carter as a solid Juwan Howard, Otis Thorpe, Al Horford-type. The more I see the NBA game changing the more I dislike Ayton and I'd been touting him for 4 years now. I also don't have Doncic in that top tier due to his lack of explosiveness which could really prevent him from living up to his hype.
I'll post my full mock once I've looked at my Combine DVR's. I fell in love with Khris Middleton and Rudy Gobert from these workouts so I place significant value in this week.
This draft obviously left Phoenix and Sacramento very sad that they passed up Doncic. Are the cases of Bagley and Ayton failures of projecting the players, or failures to perceive how rapidly the league was changing?I want DeVincinzo bad at 27. I think he’s going to be a really good combo guard / energy type guy in the league.
From 2016:
I keep saying this, but at 6'10" 240 Simmons is going to be playing the PF in the NBA. And if the teams drafting ahead of Boston are frightened off I trust Stevens and the current coaching staff to get everything possible out of him.
I have Dunn and Murray in the same tier as Ingram and Simmons, so, yes, I do think there's a real shot that whoever's drafting #2 talks themselves out of him. D'Angelo Russell's late season surge in LA has probably done a lot for Murray's draft stock around the NBA (much the same was that Lil' Zeke's success has cleared the path for Kay Felder in the NBA).
I think the Simmons criticism's gotten a bit out of control. Simmons wasn't a willing shooter at LSU, nor a good one, but his shot is far from broken. And beyond that, he's got an incredibly rare, intriguing skill-set for a 6'10 player. He's the perfect player for today's "positionless" NBA, and I think if teams are talking themselves into Brandon Ingram because of shooting it's going to be a mistake.
The funny thing, to me, is that while all of the "Simmons is can't shoot, he's going to be a bust" talks been reaching it's apex, Giannis was running the point in Milwaukee, basically providing the perfect blueprint for how a 6'10 athlete with excellent ball handling and court vision can be used. If teams honestly talk themselves out of Simmons, I'll be really, really surprised.