Down on the Farm, 2019 edition

bosox79

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Bonaci finally got caught stealing a base. He's now 11/12 in SB. 66 PA in and he's hitting .415 with an OPS of 1.104 with 7bb/9k. He's still 16 for a few more weeks too. He's young even for the DSL. He should make it stateside by 17. Feliz is in a pretty deep funk though and went 0/4 with 4k today. 3 for his last 30 with 2bb/10k.

Elio Prado hit his 3rd HR of the season today and continues to look like a steal at only $80 k. The CF is hitting .339 with a 1.027 OPS in 61 PA with 12bb/11k. He also has 7 sb in 9 attempts. Gonzalez went 1/3 with a double, a walk and a strikeout. He's hitting .354 with an OPS of 1.154 and 8bb/18k in 66 PA. Gonzalez (5), Feliz (4) and Prado (3) have hit 12 of the 15 HRs for the DSL teams.

Duran went 0/4 last night and is down to .186/.294/.271 in 70 PA. He has 8bb/12k. Not the start we were hoping for but it's 70 PA.
 

simplicio

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Today's Lowell game was canceled, so a quick first week update: while Antoni Flores and Nick Decker both got off to terrible starts, Gilberto Jimenez (.467/.474/.533) and Nick Northcut (.389/.401/.667 with 4 doubles and a triple in 5 games) have more than made up for it.

Flores having a slow start isn't surprising either, with his jump to Lowell coming after an injury shortened season of only 15 games last summer, 13 of them in the DSL.
 

oumbi

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Triston Casas is doing well at Greenville. In 65 games and 235 AB, his slash line is .268/.343/.519. So an OPS of .862.

Add to that his 13 HRs and he is only one HR behind Dalbec. Casas has 27 walks (10%) and 71 Ks (26.2%), not ideal but he is only 19 years old.
 

bosox79

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Triston Casas is doing well at Greenville. In 65 games and 235 AB, his slash line is .268/.343/.519. So an OPS of .862.

Add to that his 13 HRs and he is only one HR behind Dalbec. Casas has 27 walks (10%) and 71 Ks (26.2%), not ideal but he is only 19 years old.
I'm breaking down already small sample sizes but players this young can improve leaps and bounds after a little exposure. Casas appears to have made some serious adjustments after his first month. Players struggling for their first month at a new level is about as common as Chris Davis striking out.
April: 88 PA, 9bb/31k. 10.2% BB rate, 35.2% K rate, .208/.284/.364, .304 BAbip.
Since: 183 PA, 18bb/40k. 9.8% BB rate, 21.9% K rate, .297/.372/.595, .324 BAbip.

You mentioned Dalbec. He had good results but was ugly getting there. He's having a much better season this year after having some exposure.
2018 AA: 124 PA, 6bb/46k. 4.8% BB rate, 37.1% K rate. .261/.323/.514, .377 BAbip.
2019 AA: 281 PA, 45bb/73k. 16.0% BB rate, 26.0% K rate. .237/.377/.474, .282 BAbip.

And A+ to Double-A is considered the biggest jump on the way up the ladder, right? Not surprising that a guy with barely 500 professional PA is going to struggle a bit at that transition.
Yeah. I take it for granted that most people follow the farm more than they do. A+ to AA is the hardest. Also 70 PA is really nothing at all, especially when it's right after a promotion to a new level. I figured he'd might struggle at AA because he hasn't shown any power to date and the further up the chain you go, the less impact speed has. My concerns are he ends up like this guy, though he's considerably faster. Hopefully he'll show some power the next 2 months.

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In other notes, Marcus Wilson is destroying A+ pitching for the last couple weeks.
12 games, 42 PA, .471/.571/1.059, .579 BAbip. 8bb/10k, 3 doubles, 1 triple, 5 HRs. 3/4 in SB.
Last 2 games: 4/5 with 2 walks. 3 HRs, 4 runs, 5 rbi, 2b.

He's had a pretty strange journey this year too.
Ari (AA) : 40 PA, .235/.350/.529 (April 4th-April 18th)
Bos (AA) :75 PA, .161/.307/.226 (April 22nd-May 15th)
Bos (A+) : 99 PA, .341/.424/.659 (May 19th-June 22nd)
Combined: 214 PA, .260/.369/.486, 30bb/75k. 10 doubles, 2 triples, 9 HRs. 7/9 in SB. Still striking out way too much though.

Bryan Mata is started to look like the robot he was in 2017. Pitched yesterday and went 5.0 ip, 5 hits, 2 er, 1bb/4k. Season line: 1.79 era, 45.1 ip, 14bb/45k. WHIP of 0.933. Hitters are slashing .182/.260/.230, .242 BAbip off him in 187 PA. LOL. That's sbout what Steve Pearce has done this year. Small sample size and all but that is absurd. A .048 ISO. He's given up 6 doubles and 1 HR.

2018: Hitters slashed .229/.395/.281 in 327 PA. That may explain the 3.50 era on a 1.611 WHIP.
2017: .259/.333/.352 in 326 PA.
2016: .242/.306/.323 in 247 PA.

Real curious how he'll hold up in Portland. He just turned 20 in May and missed a bunch of starts this year so no rush. His velocity/stuff improved last year and it looks like he has the walks under control again.

24 year old AA Catcher Jhon Diaz is now slashing .303/.343/.470 in 143 PA with 13 xbh, including 4 HR. He's shown the ability to hit for average prior to last year but never hit for power. He did get busted for steroids in 2016.

Darwinzon Hernandez (including MLB) this year: 238 PA, 45bb/72k. 18.9% BB rate, 30.3% K rate. I wonder if/when a move to the bullpen is coming in hopes that repeating his delivery will help him the way it helped Dellin Betances. As of now, he's having a hard time making it out of 5.


Greenville started the game with 6 straight walks. The 7th batter got a single. It's happening right now.
 

bosox79

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In other notes, Marcus Wilson is destroying A+ pitching for the last couple weeks.
12 games, 42 PA, .471/.571/1.059, .579 BAbip. 8bb/10k, 3 doubles, 1 triple, 5 HRs. 3/4 in SB.
Last 2 games: 4/5 with 2 walks. 3 HRs, 4 runs, 5 rbi, 2b.
3rd game on 6/23: 2/4, 1 run, 1 HR, 3 rbi, bb. Combined 3 game total of 6/9, 3bb, 1 double, 4 HR, 5 runs, 8 rbi.

14-16: 689 PA, 36 xbh, 3 HR, 36/47 in SB
2017 : 445 PA, 35 xbh, 9 HR, 15/22 in SB,
2018 : 502 PA, 38 xbh, 10 HR, 16/22 in SB
2019 : 222 PA, 22 xbh, 10 HR, 7/9 in SB. 12 of his xbh and 6 of his HR have come in the last 54 PA.

The uptick in power the last few years is encouraging, especially given his other skills. He turns 23 in August and (in game) power is often the last skill to develop. It could also just be him taking advantage of repeating A+. Still a nice lottery ticket for Blake Swihart, who I think isn't long for the majors.
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Casas hit HR#14 yesterday. 33 xbh in 285 PA.
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Brandon Howlett: After making a name for himself last year, the 19 year old struggled for the first 2 months of the season but has really turned it on in June but some of that is due to luck. Imagine what his line would look like with a normal BAbip?
First 45 games: 180 PA, .223/.311/.318, .330 BAbip. 16bb/59k, 9 xbh, 3 HR.
Last 21 games: 84 PA, .369/.476/.569, .512 BAbip. 13bb/23k, 9 xbh, 2 HR.
Year: 66 games, 264 PA, .266/.366/.392, .386 BAbip, 29bb/82k, 18xbh, 5 HR.
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Chase Shugart: 2.31 era, 35.0 IP, 4bb/30k. 21.7% K%, 2.9% BB% The 22 year old was a 12th round pick last year and has 4 pitch mix, with his fastball and slider possibly being plus pitches. He tops out around 95. His stuff may play up in the bullpen too.
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The Catchers
Kole Cottam: The 22 year old catcher was the 4th round pick last year. In 189 PA at Greenville this year, he is slashing .255/.376/.408 with 25bb/48k. He' an offense first catcher with some pop. He struggled out of the gate but has turned it on since June.
First 33 games: 132 PA, .213/.348/.333, .296 BAbip. 20bb/36k. 9xbh, 2 HR.
Last 13 games: 57 PA, .347/.439/.571, .429 BAbip. 5bb/12k. 7 xbh, 2 HR.
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Alan Marrero: The 21 year old catcher continues his breakout season and hit his 6th HR of the year yesterday. Now in 134 PA, he is slashing .239/.336/.462 with 17bb/45k. He has 33 games at C while Cottam has 43. Marrero is supposed to be all glove no bat while Cottam is mostly bat, little glove.
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Jhon Nunez: I mentioned him in the last post and he's still slashing the same (.303/.340/.473), but I always confuse him with Jhon Diaz, a SP in Salem.
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Bullpen Prospects/suspects: the most volatile of the volatile. Here are some MR having good years in the farm system.
Greenville
Logan Browning: 1.99 era, 40.2 IP. 7bb/52k. 32.5% K%, 4.4% BB%. .186/.245/.290 against. He'll be 24 in September so he's very old for Greenville. He went from a 37th round pick in 2014 to a 35th rounder in 2017 to a 24th rounder last year. So that's encouraging. The lefty tops out around 91 and stars in a Netflix show. Oh, wait. Wrong Logan Browning.
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Oddanier Mosqueda: 2.03 era, 31.0 IP. 8bb/46k. 35.7% K%, 6.2% BB%. The left hander just turned 20 in May so he's arguably a little young for the league. The lefty tops out at 95 and uses a FB, CB, CU mix. He's been in the Sox system since 2015.
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Rio Gomez: 1.76 era, 41.0 IP, 7bb/49k. 31.6% K%, 4.5% BB combined between Greenville and Salem.. The 24 year old was drafted in the 36th round last year by the Redsox. He's done well in Salem since being promoted but has 3bb/12k in 63 BF for a K% of 19.0%. It doesn't look like he is fooling anyone. Another lefty who sits below 90 mph so probably cannon fodder.
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Salem
Eduard Bazardo: 1.67 era, 43.0 IP, 10bb/55k. 32.4% K%, 5.9% BB%. He's been in the Sox farm system since 2014 and turns 24 in September. He tops out at 95 with a plus curve. Eduard was recently promoted to AA on 6/20. He has pitched once since, going 2.0 ip, 1h, 0r, 1bb/2k. He's actually been really good throughout his minor league career. I'm not sure why they moved him into a bullpen role when he was having pretty good results as a starter though.
2015: 4.37 era, 57.2 IP, 16bb/55k, 22.5% K%, 6.6% BB% 14g/14gs
2016: 0.79 era, 45.1 ip, 18bb/48k, 28.1% K%, 10.5% BB%, 17g/1gs
2017: 2.41 era, 56.0 ip, 17bb/67k, 29.3% K%, 7.4% BB%, 17g/2gs
2018: 2.67 era, 77.2 ip, 8bb/84k, 27.2% K%, 2.6% BB%, 14g/14gs
2019: 1.63 era, 43.0 ip, 10bb/55k, 32.4% K%, 5.9% BB%, 17g/0gs
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MR Joan Martinez missed a month due to injury but has since returned. In his 3 games back, 3.38 era, 5.1 ip, 4bb/8k in 22 BF. It brings his season line to a 2.33 era, 27.0 ip, 12bb/42k. Hitters are slashing .208/.319/.292 against, with a .364 BAbip. MR's aren't very exciting as propsects go, especially ones who turn 23 in August and are still in Salem but as I stated before, this guy hits 100. He has late inning potential and it looks like he's starting to figure it out.

2018: 23.6%, K%, 15.7% BB%, 229 BF. 36bb/54k.
2019: 36.8% K%, 10.5% BB%, 114 BF. 12bb/42k.
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Portland
Jake Cosart: I already mentioned him previously but he's now at 22 games between Salem and Portland and is at 1.21 era, 29.1 IP, 9bb/34k. In Portland: 8 games, 0.00 era, 10 ip, 5hits, 4bb/12k, WHIP 0.90.
---
 
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oumbi

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Bosox79, many thanks again and again for the incredible hard work you put into the updates on this thread. It is great to get all the info broken down they you do.
 

bosox79

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DSL updates after today's games.
DSL2
Naysbel Marcano: The catcher hit his first HR of the season yesterday going 2/4. He hit his 2nd HR today going 2/3 with 2bb. He's now slashing .311/.368/.525 in 68 PA with 4bb/14k.
Elio Prado: He's cooled off a little from his hot start but continues to collect hits. .321/.409/.500 with 3 HR, 7/10 in SB, 13bb/16kk in 93 PA.
Bryan Gonzales: Didn't play today. .321/.407/.615 with 10bb/23k in 91 PA.

DSL1
Brainer Bonaci: He's also cooled off from his incredibly hot start but went 1/3 with a double, bb and a sb today. He's now slashing .367/.424/.549 with 8bb/13k and 12/14 in SB.
Alex Zapete: In 84 PA, he's slashing .364/.405/.442 with 6bb/6k and 4/8 in SB. He's hit for next to no power but does have a 9 game hitting streak going on.
Albert Feliz: Heading into today's game, Feliz was slashing .105/.217/.158 in his last 48 PA with 4bb/18k. His line for the season was down to .232/.300/.493. Today, he went 3/4 and hit his 5th HR of the year while adding 2 doubles. He's back up to .260/.321/.575 in 84 PA. He has a total of 8 doubles and 5 HR this year. Add in the 4/5, double, 3 HR game he had earlier this season and that's more than half his xbh.

Bosox79, many thanks again and again for the incredible hard work you put into the updates on this thread. It is great to get all the info broken down they you do.
No problem, it's easy when you enjoy doing it.
 

bosox79

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Just a small note: Trey Ball is playing in the GCL and has 5 games in the OF.
 

bosox79

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Bryan Mata was also promoted to AA yesterday. He turned 20 back in May so he's ridiculously young for the league. His stuff also drastically improved last year so it makes one wonder if the prior scouting reports were based on him throwing 92 or him throwing 96.

He pitched in Game 1 of a DH today, and like his robot self went 6.0 ip, 5 hits, 1r/1er, 2bb/5k.
 

grandsalami

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Bryan Mata was also promoted to AA yesterday. He turned 20 back in May so he's ridiculously young for the league. His stuff also drastically improved last year so it makes one wonder if the prior scouting reports were based on him throwing 92 or him throwing 96.

He pitched in Game 1 of a DH today, and like his robot self went 6.0 ip, 5 hits, 1r/1er, 2bb/5k.
Kevin Thomas said he was sitting at 96 and hit 98. This kid is getting untouchable.
 

bosox79

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Bobby Dalbec has been on a HR spree of late with 5 HR in his last 6 games. 25 PA, .272/.400/.956 over those 6 games. He had been in a pretty bad slump up until then. Season line sits at .234/.371/.494 and 19 HRs with 52bb/90k in 333 PA.

Josh Ockimey continues to slump. Last 36 games, 135 PA: .174/.281/.330 on a .235 BAbip with 17bb/45k.

CJ Chatham has been hitting for some power over the last couple weeks. 13 games, 53 PA, .380/.415/.640, 3bb/9k. For the year he is up to .324/.365/.433. His career average in the ml is .314 and he is a SS, so he'll probably have some type of major league career.

Jarren Durran continues to struggle in AA. He's now up to 128 PA at that level and slashing .216/.278/.267 with 8bb/30k. Not encouraging.

Marcus Wilson continues to scorch the ball, though the HRs have disappeared. Over his last 34 games, 126 PA he's slashing .367/.437/.679 with 7 HRs and 14b/38k.

Last year's 5th round pick Thad Ward struggled in his first game upon promotion to Salem, going 4.1 ip, 3 hits, 1 er, 7bb/2k. His following 2 starts he looked more like the pitcher in Greenville, going 6.0 ip, 5 hits, 1 er, 2bb/7k and in his last start 6.0 ip, 5 hits, 1er, 1bb/10k. Brings his season line across both levels to a 1.93 era in 88.2 ip with a WHIP of 1.12 and 35bb/106k.

Triston Casas since 5/1: 210 PA, .298/.376/.602, .331 BAbip, 11 doubles, 4 triples, 12 HR, 22bb/46k. That's some serious power for a teenager.

Antoni Flores has had a pretty terrible start to the season, slashing .163/.255/.204 in his first 55 PA with 5bb/11k.

Albert Feliz hit his 6th HR of the season down on the DSL. He's at .262/.328/.524 for the year with 10bb/34k in 114 PA.

18 year old lefty Nixson Munoz has a 1.77 era in 20.1 ip with 2bb/33k in the DSL. 2.2% BB%, 37.1% K rate. His last start he went 4.0 ip, giving up 3 hits and striking out 10. He's the only pitcher really separating himself as far as peripherals go. He received a 30k bonus in 2017 and didn't make his debut until this year. He stands 5'9 and weighs 140. Dude is smaller than me.
 

bosox79

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They could be if posts about Mata's upside and rapid advance thru the system continue
Mata's probably more likely to make the majors this year than Feltman had last year, though I don't think that's saying much at all. Hell, he may have a better chance than Feltman does this year though Dustin's been pretty decent lately. 16 games, 2.14 era, 21.0 ip, 10bb/21k, .164/.274/.274, .200 BAbip. 25.0% K %, 11.9% BB%.
 

RoDaddy

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4 hits for Duran today so there's hope

Gilberto Jimenez having a great season for an only soon to be 19 year old in the NY-Penn league. Has kind of a Manual Margot vibe

Are our DSL prospects really that good or are we just desperate to find talent in a poorly rated system? Maybe a little bit of both. I saw the impressive Munoz SO/IP but at his size, wonder if he's just a junkballer since they can dominate lower levels if they're good

Saw that a Skank's DSL team scored 38 runs a few days ago - wow!!
 
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bosox79

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4 hits for Duran today so there's hope

Gilberto Jimenez having a great season for an only soon to be 19 year old in the NY-Penn league. Has kind of a Manual Margot vibe

Are our DSL prospects really that good or are we just desperate to find talent in a poorly rated system? Maybe a little bit of both. I saw the impressive Munoz SO/IP but at his size, wonder if he's just a junkballer since they can dominate lower levels if they're good

Saw that a Skank's DSL team scored 38 runs a few days ago - wow!!
Define really good? They are having exciting seasons but it's the DSL. Hard to tell who's Luis Alexander Basabe and who's Rafael Devers until you get some updated scouting reports coming out of the DSL. HRs are usually a good sign because power is power. SB/triples/doubles and all that can be noise when another player is more advanced than the others, bad field conditions, bad, inexperienced fielders etc.

Sometimes you get players like Javy Guerra and that Korean guy we traded to Seattle who have fluke power seasons in the minors though.

On another note, Casas hit HR number 15 tonight. 1/3 with a BB. I wonder if they give him a couple weeks in Salem this year.
 

billy ashley

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Man, I had completely forgotten about Cheh-Hsein Chen. He was from Taiwan, but I too mistakenly remembered him as Korean.

There was so much debate on SoxPropsoects.com about where to rank that guy during his breakout season. He always scouted well, but had OPS in the low 700s most of his career and then bam, 1.050 over 2/3 a season.

He was a pretty successful international sign, having made it to AAA. He like Duran was a little older for A and High A, making the jump to AA during his age 23 season.

On Duran, I'm not sweating his AA numbers to much. His development has been so rapid and accelerated. The guy went from being an unknown on draft day to profiling as a major leaguer. I don't think his skill set suggests him being a first division starter, unless of course you really believe he's a 70 contact guy, but assuming his defense is fine in the OF, he should have a future.

If he had a good but not spectacular year in High A, he'd been interesting going into 2020, albeit a shade older than you'd want for the level.
 

bosox79

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MR Logan Browning (son of MLB Tom Browning) last 17 games: 0.88 era, 30.2 ip, 4bb/40k, .146/.189/.214 against, .219 BAbip. For the year: 27 games, 1.85 era, 48.2 ip, 8bb/63k. 0.842 WHIP.

SP Thad Ward pitched earlier today, going 5.0 ip, 4 hits, 0bb/6k. His last 3 games in Salem: 17.0 ip, 14 hits, 2er, 3bb/23k. Combined Greenville/Salem totals: 17 games, 1.83 era, 93.2 ip, 35bb/112k, 1.10 WHIP. He added a cutter this year and it's been a plus pitch. I'm starting to get pretty excited about this guy.

SP Bryan Mata made his 2nd AA start yesterday. It was not a good one, 3.2 ip, 7 hits, 5 er, 3bb/5k.
SP Tanner Houck (who was mentioned as a possible bullpen candidate for the Sox this year) was really roughed up in his first appearance as a MR: 0.1 ip, 3 hits, 6 er, 2bb, 1k. How he managed to give up 6 er while only allowing 5 base runners I have no clue. He didn't HBP anyone. Maybe the guy he struck out reached base.

On the positive side, SP Denyi Reyes continues to pitch well, going 7.0 ip, 6 hits, 2r/0er, 0bb/1k in his last start. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets a start or two this year for Boston either. He's probably 2nd or 3rd in line among minor league pitchers for a start and he's already on the 40.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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SP Tanner Houck (who was mentioned as a possible bullpen candidate for the Sox this year) was really roughed up in his first appearance as a MR: 0.1 ip, 3 hits, 6 er, 2bb, 1k. How he managed to give up 6 er while only allowing 5 base runners I have no clue. He didn't HBP anyone. Maybe the guy he struck out reached base.
This got me curious, so I checked it out. A New Hampshire runner reached on a fielders choice in which everybody was safe. In a rule I can't remember seeing since being a Little League dad trying not to tag the little ones with errors, it's not considered an error if the fielder is just slow (or the runner, correspondingly, is fast).

New Hampshire Bottom of the 7th
  • Pitching Change: Tanner Houck replaces Robinson Leyer.
  • Logan Warmoth strikes out swinging.
  • Christian Williams singles on a line drive to center fielder Deiner Lopez.
  • Brock Lundquist reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by second baseman C. J. Chatham. Christian Williams to 2nd.
  • Forrest Wall walks. Christian Williams to 3rd. Brock Lundquist to 2nd.
  • Santiago Espinal walks. Christian Williams scores. Brock Lundquist to 3rd. Forrest Wall to 2nd.
  • Mound Visit.
  • Nash Knight doubles (13) on a line drive to right fielder Luke Tendler. Brock Lundquist scores. Forrest Wall scores. Santiago Espinal to 3rd.
  • Josh Palacios singles on a ground ball to center fielder Deiner Lopez. Santiago Espinal scores. Nash Knight scores.


Read more: http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2019_07_06_prtaax_nhmaax_1&t=g_log&sid=milb#ixzz5t7ZGRYqt
 

bosox79

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Shouldn't Dalbec get promoted to AAA soon? Methinks he may be on the trade dangle....
Has he really forced a promotion? He's hitting .229/.370/.480. He does have a .268 BAbip so that should improve but he's still striking out a lot. I said it in the trade discussion thread but he's 24 and in AA. That's kind of old for a prospect and he's not exactly tearing it up. Since June 2nd: 139 PA, .190/.381/.410, 29bb/36k. He's been terribly unlucky too though, with a .206 BAbip in that time.

In July, he's at .214/.371/.643 in 35 PA with 7bb/8k and 4 HR with a .125 BAbip. So he's been "better" of late but still brutal luck.

Last year, his BAbip was .332.
in 2017, it was .383. How does one hit .248/.347/.424 with a. 383 BAbip?
In 2016, it was .473.

I don't think promoting him would hurt that much but I'm not sure what the point is. A few PA in AAA won't change peoples perceptions of him.
 

Plympton91

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Bosox79, thanks for these, especially the summaries of the GCL and DSL kids as well as the random scouting nuggets.

It really made my day to hear that Mata is clocking 95+ mph this year, and Ward having success after adding a new pitch is another golden nugget. Both are very encouraging for a team that needs a cheap starter desperately.

Even abstracting from the disastrous 3 game stretch, Durbin Feltman’s walk rate is too damn high and the K rate nothing special anymore. The hype definitely got way ahead of the player on that one.

Tristian Casas immediate breakout has been nice little surprise and potential godsend as well.

Dalbec getting his K rate down to 1 in 4 without sacrificing walks also is encouraging. I think the saber gurus say 140 PA is enough for K rate to stabilize. If that’s a new baseline, I’d expect big things of him in the second half.
 

bosox79

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Casas is the one player I hope they keep. He's had all of 10 PA against pitchers younger than him this year.
 

BaseballJones

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Dalbec is an ideal guy to trade, if someone out there would like a guy with pretty good power. He's blocked in the Sox' organization by Devers, but he offers a tool (power) that's coveted by people. At 24, he's soon going to not be a prospect. Might be the perfect guy to use to fetch some pitching help.
 

EricFeczko

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Bosox79, thanks for these, especially the summaries of the GCL and DSL kids as well as the random scouting nuggets.

It really made my day to hear that Mata is clocking 95+ mph this year, and Ward having success after adding a new pitch is another golden nugget. Both are very encouraging for a team that needs a cheap starter desperately.

Even abstracting from the disastrous 3 game stretch, Durbin Feltman’s walk rate is too damn high and the K rate nothing special anymore. The hype definitely got way ahead of the player on that one.

Tristian Casas immediate breakout has been nice little surprise and potential godsend as well.

Dalbec getting his K rate down to 1 in 4 without sacrificing walks also is encouraging. I think the saber gurus say 140 PA is enough for K rate to stabilize. If that’s a new baseline, I’d expect big things of him in the second half.
I think we're past that now. The concept of reliability in rate statistics doesn't make much sense if the rate statistic is a trajectory.

We need to see what Dalbec can do at AAA, with more than a few PAs, before making any decisions about where he's going. Thanks to his defense, I'm higher on him than chavis, who I see as the likeliest trade bait.
 
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ehaz

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I think we're past that now. The concept of reliability in rate statistics doesn't make much sense if the rate statistic is a trajectory.
We need to see what Dalbec can do at AAA, but I'm higher on him than chavis, who I see as the likeliest trade bait.
I don't understand this at all. Chavis strikes out a ton too, but he struck out at a lesser rate in AA as a 21 year old than Dalbec did while slugging at virtually the same rate. Not to mention, he's actually proven he can adjust to MLB pitching so far. I guess if you're confident that they're basically the same player, you trade Chavis because he'll be viewed as the more valuable chip but you better be pretty damn sure Dalbec can replace Chavis right now because that opens up another hole in this roster.
 

Danny_Darwin

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I know Dalbec is a legit defender at third, and I've heard that part of that is his throwing arm, which would be wasted if you were to move him to second or first. You could try him in an outfield corner, I guess, but he seems less valuable there. Maybe I'm wrong - I haven't seen him; I'm just reading stuff on the internet (like, I presume, several of you) - but I'm wondering if he's one of those guys who has to play third to be valuable. Which, they're not going to move Devers off the position anytime soon, and rightly so.

As for Chavis, Dave Dombrowski doesn't strike me as the type to trade away the starting second baseman in the middle of a season. Maybe in the winter, but not now.
 

bosox79

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I know Dalbec is a legit defender at third, and I've heard that part of that is his throwing arm, which would be wasted if you were to move him to second or first. You could try him in an outfield corner, I guess, but he seems less valuable there. Maybe I'm wrong - I haven't seen him; I'm just reading stuff on the internet (like, I presume, several of you) - but I'm wondering if he's one of those guys who has to play third to be valuable. Which, they're not going to move Devers off the position anytime soon, and rightly so.

As for Chavis, Dave Dombrowski doesn't strike me as the type to trade away the starting second baseman in the middle of a season. Maybe in the winter, but not now.
He pretty much has to play 3rd.
 

EricFeczko

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I don't understand this at all. Chavis strikes out a ton too, but he struck out at a lesser rate in AA as a 21 year old than Dalbec did while slugging at virtually the same rate. Not to mention, he's actually proven he can adjust to MLB pitching so far. I guess if you're confident that they're basically the same player, you trade Chavis because he'll be viewed as the more valuable chip but you better be pretty damn sure Dalbec can replace Chavis right now because that opens up another hole in this roster.
Yeah my post wasn't very clear at all. Dalbec is considered a much better defender at nearly every position, so for me, he wouldn't need to hit as much to be as effective as Chavis. Furthermore, I disagree that Chavis has proven he can adjust to MLB pitching so far. If anything, MLB pitching has adjusted to Chavis:

25167

This may be driven by the fact that he struggles with high fastballs, even in the strike zone:
25169
In any case, I actually don't think the red sox should make any trades until the offseason. Both the roster and the farm are too thin to really be buyers. I just hope Chavis maintains value until then (and I think he will -- most had written him off after the PED suspension).
 

thestardawg

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Yeah my post wasn't very clear at all. Dalbec is considered a much better defender at nearly every position, so for me, he wouldn't need to hit as much to be as effective as Chavis. Furthermore, I disagree that Chavis has proven he can adjust to MLB pitching so far. If anything, MLB pitching has adjusted to Chavis:

View attachment 25167

This may be driven by the fact that he struggles with high fastballs, even in the strike zone:
View attachment 25169
In any case, I actually don't think the red sox should make any trades until the offseason. Both the roster and the farm are too thin to really be buyers. I just hope Chavis maintains value until then (and I think he will -- most had written him off after the PED suspension).
What do you suggest they do with a third base only profile who is not young for his level and still strikes out too much? Someone who has Rafael Devers in front of him.

There is no reason for Bobby Dalbec to be in the organization on August 1. None.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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What do you suggest they do with a third base only profile who is not young for his level and still strikes out too much? Someone who has Rafael Devers in front of him.

There is no reason for Bobby Dalbec to be in the organization on August 1. None.
Pretty much agree. Obviously discussed above is that Chavis is also blocking him.... can the Sox make the call that Moreland and Pearce will return healthy and provide the value for the rest of the year that Chavis has when he needed to step over to 1st for them? That way if they feel that Dalbec is the more useful piece for the future and Chavis has more value, then move Chavis for a starter ASAP
 

Plympton91

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What do you suggest they do with a third base only profile who is not young for his level and still strikes out too much? Someone who has Rafael Devers in front of him.

There is no reason for Bobby Dalbec to be in the organization on August 1. None.
Why would the Red Sox need to trade Dalbec at the deadline when prices are inflated relative to the offseason.

I don’t want a Dalbec for Larry Anderson trade. Now if they can do Dalbec and Houck for Mike Boddicker type trade, then maybe that’s fine.

But increasing your odds of maybe being the 5th place team instead of the 6th place team and scoring a coin flip game for the privilege of getting swept by the Yankees ain’t worth sacrificing prospects.
 

RoDaddy

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What do you suggest they do with a third base only profile who is not young for his level and still strikes out too much? Someone who has Rafael Devers in front of him.

There is no reason for Bobby Dalbec to be in the organization on August 1. None.
Maybe the organization should see if Dalbec can also play left field. Then the strong arm would be an asset. It would also open up some outfield options moving forward, such as maybe 10D moving to CF if JBJ moves on
 

bosox79

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Maybe the organization should see if Dalbec can also play left field. Then the strong arm would be an asset. It would also open up some outfield options moving forward, such as maybe 10D moving to CF if JBJ moves on
He is pretty slow and already has limited range at 3b. He's also possibly a plus defender at 3rd so you are removing like 90% of his value by taking him off 3b.
 

BaseballJones

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Chavis (this isn't the Chavis thread, but it's worth mentioning because he's being discussed in the context of Dalbec) broken down into three chunks:

Apr 20-May 20: 26 g, 113 pa, 9 hr, 14 bb, 30 k, .296/.389/.592/.981, .339 babip
May 21-June 23: 32 g, 136 pa, 3 hr, 8 bb, 55 k, .230/.287/.333/.620, .382 babip
June 24-July 7: 11 g, 49 pa, 3 hr, 3 bb, 14 k, .283/.327/.565/.892, .345 babip

His last 33 games have looked much more like his first 26 than those middle 32, except for the bb/k numbers. No question he is walking less and striking out more as pitchers adjust. He's gotten a ton of sliders that he seems to have big trouble with. But his BABIP isn't crazy high; ironically, it was higher in that middle period when he was really struggling - that high BABIP kept him afloat.

It's totally possible to be an effective MLB hitter even with a bad BB/K rate. Chavis ranks, right now, 20th worst among qualified players in MLB in BB/K rate, at .253. Here are some players above him (i.e., worse than him):

5th worst: Javier Baez (.176), 22 hr, .289/.324/.556/.881, 122 ops+, 2.7 oWAR (b-ref)
8th worst: Jose Abreu (.212), 21 hr, .278/.316/.522/.838, 118 ops+, 1.3 oWAR (b-ref)
8th worst: Brandon Lowe (.212), 16 hr, .276/.339/.523/.862, 125 ops+, 2.6 oWAR (b-ref)
14th worst: Freddy Galvis (.235), 15 hr, .270/.309/.467/.775, 106 ops+, 1.8 oWAR (b-ref)
20th worst: Michael Chavis (.253), 15 hr, .263/.332/.467/.799, 106 ops+, 0.9 oWAR (b-ref)

So yeah he strikes out too much and walks too little, but there are lots of legit MLB bats that are either above average or pretty damned good that have a similar profile. Chavis can absolutely be a successful major league hitter with his current tools. We have no idea if Dalbec can be. Plus...Chavis is one year younger.
 

BaseballJones

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Chavis is only 1 month younger than Dalbec.
But it's a BIG MONTH!!!!

But ok, I just glanced at their b-ref pages and it has Chavis in his year 23 season and I know someone else posted that Dalbec is 24. So ok, my bad.
 

RoDaddy

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He is pretty slow and already has limited range at 3b. He's also possibly a plus defender at 3rd so you are removing like 90% of his value by taking him off 3b.
90% - I don't think so. Speed is not that important in LF, especially Fenway. And if he can play third (and he can), he can play the easier defensive position LF. Throw in the strong arm and it wouldn't surprise me if he becomes a plus left fielder. It's also a way to keep him in Boston - if he makes it that far - where his power numbers could be outstanding.

In fact, I'd like to see how Chavis looks in LF as well. Again, more team flexibility and options
 

bosox79

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90% is hyperbole but from what I can tell, the shift from 3b to LF is about 10 runs of value. I just don't see the point in moving a player down the defensive spectrum when he's a plus defender at the more valuable position. Plus LF is a pretty easy position to fill. I guess if they think he has more value as a LF to the team than he does in a trade it makes sense. Normally players don't get moved off a position until they prove they can't handle it. Chavis may end up getting time in LF because he's not good at any position.

And having seen Dalbec in Portland a few times, I think he'd be an adventure in LF but I could be wrong. He's slow in the acceleration sense.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I used to think as you do. I think a lot of us did.

But that was in the days before Hanley.
Counterpoint: Alex Gordon. Mediocre defensive 3B, Gold Glove left fielder.

Dalbec probably falls somewhere in the middle of the spectrum between.

I'm not sold on Dalbec being worth changing positions just to give him a place to play in Boston. He very likely has more valuable to the Red Sox as a trade chip than he does as a player, and I'd prefer they maximize his value.
 

Plympton91

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Counterpoint: Alex Gordon. Mediocre defensive 3B, Gold Glove left fielder.

Dalbec probably falls somewhere in the middle of the spectrum between.

I'm not sold on Dalbec being worth changing positions just to give him a place to play in Boston. He very likely has more valuable to the Red Sox as a trade chip than he does as a player, and I'd prefer they maximize his value.
Maximizing his value may mean allowing him to continue developing in Portland this season. His K rate in single A last year was .310, and despite the jump to AA it is down to .271. Meanwhile, his BB rate has gone from .143 to .163.

In June and July, his K rate is down to .265 and walk rate up to .202.

This is not a player whose value is declining, and having him in AAA next year isn’t the worst thing in the world. And, there’s no guarantee that JD Martinez is coming back next season. If he doesn’t, then suddenly there’s plenty of playing time for all of Dalbec, Chavez, and Devers.
 

DanoooME

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90% - I don't think so. Speed is not that important in LF, especially Fenway. And if he can play third (and he can), he can play the easier defensive position LF. Throw in the strong arm and it wouldn't surprise me if he becomes a plus left fielder. It's also a way to keep him in Boston - if he makes it that far - where his power numbers could be outstanding.

In fact, I'd like to see how Chavis looks in LF as well. Again, more team flexibility and options
The strong arm is worth less in Fenway than any other park. It would be one thing if he could move to RF and utilize his strong arm, but there's some Mookie character out there and it's huge and needs to be covered by someone with mobility. And he'd need to hit a ton to justify being in LF.
 

nvalvo

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Barring a pretty sharp an improvement in his hit tool, Dalbec just isn't going to be valuable enough with the bat to play LF. He's 24 and in AA, so the batting line just isn't superlative enough to suggest that he's more than a .200/.300/.420 type hitter in the majors. The power is real, and it's spectacular, but he's not going to strike out *less* at the big league level. So that makes him a league average bat with a three true outcomes profile. Now a league average bat who can play a good defensive 3B can find a spot on a big league roster, especially with a good eye and ISO as a carrying tool: maybe even a starting spot. But not as a LF.

Basically, his *best case scenario* is as a Joey Gallo type player, and when Gallo was 23, he was putting up a better line than Dalbec's AA line in Arlington. Mark Reynolds, another guy with that profile, was also a rookie at 23 with a pretty appealing .279/.349/.495 line in 400+PA.

If I'm Dombrowski, I call him up to AAA ASAP to get him in a league with the low-drag baseballs in hopes that he hits one 530 feet or something, and then try to deal him for the best pitching he'll return.
 

Plympton91

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In doing an age-adjustment on him, it’s important to remember that he was only a part-time hitter in college. It takes a lot of time and effort to pitch effectively in college, and there’s only 168 hours in a week.
 

EricFeczko

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Barring a pretty sharp an improvement in his hit tool, Dalbec just isn't going to be valuable enough with the bat to play LF. He's 24 and in AA, so the batting line just isn't superlative enough to suggest that he's more than a .200/.300/.420 type hitter in the majors. The power is real, and it's spectacular, but he's not going to strike out *less* at the big league level. So that makes him a league average bat with a three true outcomes profile. Now a league average bat who can play a good defensive 3B can find a spot on a big league roster, especially with a good eye and ISO as a carrying tool: maybe even a starting spot. But not as a LF.

Basically, his *best case scenario* is as a Joey Gallo type player, and when Gallo was 23, he was putting up a better line than Dalbec's AA line in Arlington. Mark Reynolds, another guy with that profile, was also a rookie at 23 with a pretty appealing .279/.349/.495 line in 400+PA.

If I'm Dombrowski, I call him up to AAA ASAP to get him in a league with the low-drag baseballs in hopes that he hits one 530 feet or something, and then try to deal him for the best pitching he'll return.
I would say his best case is Dan Uggla hitting with Pedroia's defense.

Chavis (this isn't the Chavis thread, but it's worth mentioning because he's being discussed in the context of Dalbec) broken down into three chunks:

Apr 20-May 20: 26 g, 113 pa, 9 hr, 14 bb, 30 k, .296/.389/.592/.981, .339 babip
May 21-June 23: 32 g, 136 pa, 3 hr, 8 bb, 55 k, .230/.287/.333/.620, .382 babip
June 24-July 7: 11 g, 49 pa, 3 hr, 3 bb, 14 k, .283/.327/.565/.892, .345 babip

His last 33 games have looked much more like his first 26 than those middle 32, except for the bb/k numbers. No question he is walking less and striking out more as pitchers adjust. He's gotten a ton of sliders that he seems to have big trouble with. But his BABIP isn't crazy high; ironically, it was higher in that middle period when he was really struggling - that high BABIP kept him afloat.

It's totally possible to be an effective MLB hitter even with a bad BB/K rate. Chavis ranks, right now, 20th worst among qualified players in MLB in BB/K rate, at .253. Here are some players above him (i.e., worse than him):

5th worst: Javier Baez (.176), 22 hr, .289/.324/.556/.881, 122 ops+, 2.7 oWAR (b-ref)
8th worst: Jose Abreu (.212), 21 hr, .278/.316/.522/.838, 118 ops+, 1.3 oWAR (b-ref)
8th worst: Brandon Lowe (.212), 16 hr, .276/.339/.523/.862, 125 ops+, 2.6 oWAR (b-ref)
14th worst: Freddy Galvis (.235), 15 hr, .270/.309/.467/.775, 106 ops+, 1.8 oWAR (b-ref)
20th worst: Michael Chavis (.253), 15 hr, .263/.332/.467/.799, 106 ops+, 0.9 oWAR (b-ref)

So yeah he strikes out too much and walks too little, but there are lots of legit MLB bats that are either above average or pretty damned good that have a similar profile. Chavis can absolutely be a successful major league hitter with his current tools. We have no idea if Dalbec can be. Plus...Chavis is one year younger.
I think you meant that the last 11 games have looked more like the first 26. This is largely due to fluctuations in home runs, which are rare events. It will be telling to see whether the next 15 games resemble the first 26 or not.

Regardless, the larger question is whether Chavis can adapt. My primary concern isn't just the current trajectory, however, its that Chavis has a glaring weakness for high fastballs in the strike zone. Until he can demonstrate an ability to make contact with high fastballs, I don't see him adjusting very far.

In any case, you are right that Chavis has demonstrated more predictive value than Dalbec. Much of that value resides in Chavis being able to hit well. However, Dalbec generates value with merely a league average bat.

Maximizing his value may mean allowing him to continue developing in Portland this season. His K rate in single A last year was .310, and despite the jump to AA it is down to .271. Meanwhile, his BB rate has gone from .143 to .163.

In June and July, his K rate is down to .265 and walk rate up to .202.

This is not a player whose value is declining, and having him in AAA next year isn’t the worst thing in the world. And, there’s no guarantee that JD Martinez is coming back next season. If he doesn’t, then suddenly there’s plenty of playing time for all of Dalbec, Chavez, and Devers.
This is a really good reason not to do anything yet. I don't think trading Chavez nor Dalbec at the deadline would be selling high.