Down on the Farm, 2019 edition

bosox79

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We have the daily threads but this is more for discussion about what the prospects are doing over the course of the year.

We all know about Michael Chavis but a few other farmhands are off to great starts as well. Given the SSS, this list is going to be short on pitchers atm.

Josh Ockimey: The Sox didn't even bother protecting the 23 year old 1b from the Rule 5 draft, and no one drafted him. Maybe he's used that for motivation, as he is off to a very strong start in Pawtucket. In 20 games and 81 PA, he is slashing .254/.420/.603 with 16bb/19k and 5 HRs. He had a pretty decent year last year as well but struck out in 31.0% of his plate appearances, which is entirely too much. If he can cut down his K rate, he might have a future in the MLB.

CJ Chatham: A former 2nd round pick in 2016, his career had been somewhat derailed by injuries. He remained somewhat healthy last year and showed the ability to hit for average, though with very little power and a poor BB rate. In the early going this year, he's slashing .343/.403/.478 with 7bb/11k in 77 PA at AA. Given he's a SS, if he can hit .300+, he wouldn't have to do much else to be a plus hitter at the position.

Bobby Dalbec: He had a pretty brutal start to the season last year before picking up in the summer, and he's off to a slow start this year as well. In 79 PA, he's slashing .206/.367/.333 with 15bb/20k. His ability to make contact is still very much in question.

Durbin Feltman: He's been hyped for awhile and is considered to be on the fast track. He's held his own in AA this year to date. 7 games, 3.86 era, 7.0 innings, 2 hits, 4bb/9k, 0.86 WHIP.

Denyi Reyes: Reyes made a name for himself last year with his pinpoint control in the lower levels. In the early going at AA, he has not maintained the minuscule BB rates. In 4 starts this year, he has pitched 18.1 innings and has 10bb/16k. He had 19bb in 155.2 ip last year.

Jarren Duran: Last year's 7th round pick, OF/2b Jarren Durran has hit the ground running. In 67 games and 302 PA last year, Duran hit .357/.394/.516. He is off to a .404/.465/.562 start this season in 99 PA. He doesn't turn 23 until September but he is slightly old for Salem as far as legit prospects go. They'll have to think about promoting him to Portland in a week or two if he continues to hit. He needs to be challenged. His career line in the minors to date: 401 PA, .368/.411/.527. Get him to Portland, yesterday. I'm starting to get very giddy about him. It's really hard to hit .368 in any league over 401 PA.

Bryan Mata: A relatively unknown, Mata made a name for himself after his very good 2017 season as an 18 year old. He struggled with control last year before being shut down at the end of July. This year, he is off to a very promising start in Salem: 5 starts, 1.40 era, 25.2 ip, 7bb/26 and a WHIP of 0.974. He doesn't turn 20 until May 3rd so he's very young for the league.

Kutter Crawford: He's following a solid 2018 campaign with a great start in Salem. 5 starts, 1.96 era, 23.0 ip, 8bb/26k and a WHIP of 1.130. I'm not sure how he'll hold up as a starter but he may have a career as a MR.

Triston Casas: Last year's 1st round pick is off to a slow start in Greenville. The 19 year old is hitting .219/.298/.384 in 84 PA, with 9bb and a staggering 30k. That K rate is very, very discouraging but it's very early in his career.

Brandon Howlett: A 21st round pick, Howlett put himself on the radar with a great debut last year. That is not the case so far this year. In 72 PA, he's slashing .197/.250/.258 with 4bb/24k.

Cole Brannen: A 2nd round pick in 2017, Cole Brannen has had a very disappointing career to date. In 84 PA this year, Cole is slashing .173/.262/.240 with 9bb and 31k. He has had 554 career PA in the minors and his career slash line is .186/.301/.225 with 73bb and 162 strikeouts. He has a career ISO of .039. That is so pathetic. On the plus side, he's 39/44 in SB.

Tanner Houck: The 1st round pick in 2017, Tanner Houck struggled in the first half of last year before starting to pick it up. In his last 6 starts of the season, he had a 2.06 era in 35.0 IP with 41K/6bb, and a WHIP of 1.09. He hasn't been as dominate as he was to end the season last year, but he's been pretty good. 4 starts, 3.60 era, 20.0 innings, 7bb/21k.
 

nvalvo

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Something worth noting about Duran: his BABIPs are *insane.* He has never posted a BABIP under .400, and this season he's above .500.

That's not a knock on him, but they need to get him to a level where the infield defenses can handle his speed before we'll be able to get a read on his offensive potential.
 

bosox79

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Something worth noting about Duran: his BABIPs are *insane.* He has never posted a BABIP under .400, and this season he's above .500.

That's not a knock on him, but they need to get him to a level where the infield defenses can handle his speed before we'll be able to get a read on his offensive potential.
Totally agreed, To add some perspective, Travis Shaw and JBJ were teammates in Salem at roughly the same age as Duran.

Shaw: 99 games, 423 PA, .305/.411/.545
JBJ: 67 games, 304 PA, .359/.480/.526

A year later, the once promising Garin Cecchini played in Salem during his age 22/23 season.
Garin: 63 games, 262 PA, .350/.469/.547

Using those as a guideline, Jarren Duran has at least another month in A+. He doesn't have the walk rate of the others but he does have that plus plus speed that you mentioned.
 

bosox79

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Some encouraging news re Casas. He was 2/5 with a HR on Wednesday and 1/4 with a HR yesterday. He's also been cutting down on the strikeouts.

Also Duran has a 9 game streak where he's been on base at least twice. During those 9 games: 45 PA, .475/.533/.575, 5bb/9k, 7sb/1cs.

Feltman got roughed up pretty hard yesterday, going 1.0 ip, 3 hits, 4 er, 4bb/0k. 2 of the hits were doubles.
 
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bosox79

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Bobby Dalbec had been struggling a bit but yesterday he went 4/5 with 3 HRs, and 2 days ago he was 3/5 with a HR. And just like that, he is up to .248/.387/.495 for the year.

Jarren Duran cooled off slightly for a few games but is now back up to .398/.450/.516 in the first 31 games.

Triston Casas has slashed .353/.405/.794 in his last 37 PA with 2bb/5k. He's up to .252/.320/.495 for the year.

Ockimey was in a pretty bad slump too, but may have broken out of it. He was 1/3 with a HR on May 10th, and he was 2/4 with 2 HRs yesterday. At .219/.380/.552 for the year. Quite the slash line.
 
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bosox79

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Going a little deeper into Dalbec since he has the same amount of PA this year in AA as he did last year

2018: 124 PA, .261/.323/.514, .377 BAbip, 6 HRs, 6bb/46k. 4.8% BB%/37.1% K% (In Salem it was 14.3% BB%, 31.0% K rate)
2019: 124 PA, .248/.387/.495, 6 HRs, 22bb/32k. .302 BAbip. 17.7% BB%/25.8% K%
18 PA ago: .200/.358/.318, 2 HR, 20bb/30k, .283 BAbip.

He has a much lower BAbip this year but has had a much better approach at the plate. It's not that uncommon for players to press upon promotion and the sample sizes are small so I'm not sure how much it means, but the difference in K/BB are pretty drastic. Maybe now we will start seeing the approach pay off.


I know our farm system is kinda pathetic but it's sad there's more discussion about the Yankees farm system on this board than the Sox. I'll probably just Jon Abbey this thread with a bunch of random updates.

Sam Travis: He struggled last year and was off to a meh start this year, but over the last 16 games he's at .339/.439/.554. For the year, he's at .264/.366/.396 with 16bb/28k in 123 PA. Vs R: 91 PA, .195/.330/.316. Vs L: 39 PA, .405/.436/.551. He's always had a heavy split but I doubt he has a real path to Boston for any type of playing time.

Darwinzon Hernandez: I'm a fan of his but I think there was a lot of helium around him this off season. He has no clue where the ball is going after he throws it, he has a long way to go. His line in AA: 5 games/5 starts, 19.1 IP, 14 hits, 19bb/25k. 4.19 era. There's been very little hard contact against him so that's a positive.

After being roughed up on 5/2, Feltman continued to pitch like garbage in his following 2 appearances. For the year, 11 games, 12.0 ip, 7 hits, 2 HRA, 13bb/11k.
5/2: 1.0 ip, 3 hits, 4 er, 3bb/0k
5/5: 1.0 ip, 2 hits, 4 er, 2bb/1k
5/8: 1.0 ip, 0 hits, 0 er, 4bb/0k
We may want to bump the breaks a little bit.

Kutter Crawford: 2 more starts, 11.0 ip, 8 h, 4 er, 4bb/19k. For the year: 7 games, 2.38 era, 34.0 IP, 12bb/45k, .210/.293/.331 against. If he keeps it up for another 4-6 weeks, he'll probably earn a promotion to Portland.

Joan Martinez: The 22 year old MR has seen a huge spike in his K% in the early going. In 18.2 ip, he has a 2.41 era with 6bb/31k. Last year, his K% was 23.6% and his BB% was 15.7%. In the very early going this year, it's at 38.3%/7.4%. He also has a huge arm and can hit 100 on the radar gun. This isn't a guy getting by on pitchability. If he's starting to put it together, he could be a very huge piece.

Jake Cosart: The 25 year old was demoted to Salem earlier this year. He's another guy with a really big arm but he struggled mightily with command and hasn't had any success past A ball. This year in 15.2 ip, he has 2bb/16k with a 1.72 era in 11 games.

Alex Marrero: The 21 year old catcher was an 8th round pick in 2016. In the very early going at Greenville this year, he's slashing .282/.391/.500 in 46 PA with 3 HRs, 7bb and 13k. Prior to the year, he was at 228 PA, .144/.272/.227, 4 HRs, 26bb/77k. It's probably just small sample size but he may be worth keeping any eye on the following couple weeks, especially since he's a defense first catcher.

Oddanier Mosqueda: Besides having a really awesome name, the 20 year old left hander is off to a decent start in Greenvill. 3.93 era, 16.0 innings, 19 hits, 5bb/24k. K% of 32.9%, BB% of 6.8%. He sits around 94 and has a nice repeatable delivery. He's been a bit too hittable to date though.
 

bosox79

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Darwinzon Hernandez had his most encouraging start of the year on Thursday: 7 ip, 5 hits, 3er, 2bb/11k.

Triston Casas: He was pretty awful in his first month of full season ball but has been the exact opposite of that in May. The only thing different is the strikeout rate, but it's such a huge difference. He went from striking out in more than a 3rd of his plate appearances to 1/7.
April: 22 games, 88 PA, .208/.284/.364, .304 BAbip, 9bb/31k
May: 15 games, 63 PA, .315/.397/.630, .310 BAbip, 7bb/9k

Bobby Dalbec: Followed his 3 HR game with a 1/3, HR performance.
Last 11 games: 45 PA, .359/.444/.846, .346 BAbip, 6bb/8k, 5 HRs.

Josh Ockimey: I posted about the first 2 games, but he followed it up with another 2 HR game. Quite a 5 game stretch 5/12, 5 HRs, 9 BB.
5/10: 1/3, BB, HR
5/11: 2/4, BB, 2 HR
5/12: 0/2, 2 BB
5/13, 2/2, 2 HR, 2bb
5/14 0/1, 3bb
Start-4/30*: 84 PA, .258/.417/.591, .293 BAbip. 11 xbh, 5 HRs, 16bb/20k *doesn't include G2 on 4/30
4/30*-5/9: 28 PA, .043/.214/.087, .083 BAbip, 1 xbh, 0 HRs, 5bb/11k *doesn't include G1 on 4/30
5/10-Now: 29 PA, .316/.517/1.158, .125 BAbip, 6 xbh, 5 HRs, 9bb/7k. His other hit is a double. 21 of his last 29 PA are of the 3 true outcomes variety.
YTD: 141 PA, .222/.397/.583, .230 BAbip, 18 xbh, 10 HRs, 30bb/38k. His BAbip in 2018 was .329, 2017 was .362, 2016 was .284, 2015 was .408, 2014 was .280. He's already having a monster year and he's doing so by being incredibly unlucky.

Jarren Duran has reached base at least twice 17 times in the last 20 games, and at least 3 times 10 times in the last 20 games. He's been on base a total of 50 times during that stretch. He's slashing .452/.521/.560 with 10bb/20k and 8/11 sb in 96 PA over that stretch. Call him up to Portland already.

Alan Marrero: Another good week for the 21 year old catcher. Coming into the year, he had 4 career HRs and 4 career doubles in 228 PA. He already has 4 doubles and hit his 4th HR of the season yesterday in just 68 PA. SSS and all, but he's now slashing .265/.379/.592 with 9bb/19k.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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I miss the daily Minor League Game Threads. But I know how much work they took so . . .

Went to McCoy last night, first time this year. Good crowd for Saturday fireworks (and a decent fireworks show, too). Same crowd as in the past, lots of young families, teens out together, and a few old folks like us.

Teddy Stankiewicz started and got hit hard in the first inning, including a no-doubter home run to Travis Demeritte. Old friend Ryan LeMarre had 2 hits for Gwinnett (Braves). Fastest pitch was 89 MPH or so

Pawsox couldn't figure out Patrick Weigel, who no-hit them through 4 innings, but was pulled after that.

Holt had a humpback single in three attempts, played 7 or 8 innings at 2B, and made all the routine plays including a nice DP turn, Pedroia was 0-4 with a K as the DH.

Marco Hernandez played SS and wasn't tested, was 0-4 at the dish.

Rusney. Rusney is enjoying himself. Rusney walked twice and scored in front of an Ockimey HR. Rusney also casualed a high flyball to deep right that was catchable at the wall, but bounced off of the middle of the wall for a double. He followed that play by nearly running over Gorkys Hernandez (0 for 3, now hitting .167) to catch the next ball, which was hit to pretty much straightaway CF. Gorkys laughed, this was obviously not the first time Rusney has done this and he did it again later on.

Matt Gorst did well in 1.2 innings, with 3 Ks
Jenrry Mejia came in for the 9th in a 4-2 game and got the first 2 guys and then got squeezed on a Strike 3 call and followed that by giving up a long HR to Adam Duvall. Pawsox got 2 on in the bottom of the 9th via walks, but luckily Ockimy made the final out so we could see the fireworks show and head to home.

Jantzen Witte made one really nice play at 3B on a line drive with runners on.
 

RoDaddy

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For a farm system rated next to last by BA only a few months ago, I’m very impressed with the farm so far this year. And now I see Dalbec just won BA’s Prospect Hot Sheet a few days ago. I mean, the big league club is so stacked with talent (including a lot of farm system graduates, a main reason their farm system is now ranked so low) that they really only need the occasional quality prospect from time to time. And that’s exactly how things seem to be shaping up, with Chavis already up and helping out. Josh Ockimey would probably be next up if needed, and I suppose Shawaryn could be included here as well (although I’m not overly confident about him). Dalbec looks like he might be ready in a year or so, and maybe Duran as well (can they just promote him to Portland already?!). Chatham, Fitzgerald and Hart continue to look good, and behind them, Mata and an improving Casas with Groome and Flores soon to come. Not bad for the number 31 ranked farm system in baseball.
 

bosox79

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It's also not true the farm system sucks because all our prospects are playing on the big league squad, outside of Devers maybe. DD has done a terrible job rebuilding the farm system since the Sale and Kimbrel trades and he's had plenty of time to do so. It was never his strength though.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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It's also not true the farm system sucks because all our prospects are playing on the big league squad, outside of Devers maybe. DD has done a terrible job rebuilding the farm system since the Sale and Kimbrel trades and he's had plenty of time to do so. It was never his strength though.
The only ways to rebuild a farm system these days is to lose a lot of games or do a major sell-off of veterans.

Unless you believe that drafting is a skill but I don't think anyone has shown that so far. (Here's a 2014 538 article on the NFL draft that discusses this: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-team-can-beat-the-draft/).
 

Adrian's Dome

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It's also not true the farm system sucks because all our prospects are playing on the big league squad, outside of Devers maybe. DD has done a terrible job rebuilding the farm system since the Sale and Kimbrel trades and he's had plenty of time to do so. It was never his strength though.
The only thing that'll rebuild the system without trading major-league assets (and only ones with positive value) is time.

What exactly would you like, a great major league squad or a shit ML squad and a huge prospect ranking? Pretty sure they could rebuild on the fly by trading Beni, Mookie, Devers, Chavis, Barnes, X, and Vazquez (yes, even him,) but somehow, that seems suboptimal toward the end goal.
 
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bosox79

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The only thing that'll rebuild the system without trading major-league assets (and only ones with positive value) is time.

What exactly would you like, a great major league squad or a shit ML squad and a huge prospect ranking? Pretty sure they could rebuild on the fly by trading Beni, Mookie, Devers, Chavis, Barnes, and Vazquez (yes, even him,) but somehow, that seems suboptimal toward the end goal.
I'd like both. Plus he's had some time and the early results aren't promising. Casas is looking like a good pick though.. There is also truth to what Wade said, and a lot of times the prospects that end up contributing aren't on top 100 lists anyway. I just don't think he's done a particularly good job on the farm to date.
 

jon abbey

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The only thing that'll rebuild the system without trading major-league assets (and only ones with positive value) is time.

What exactly would you like, a great major league squad or a shit ML squad and a huge prospect ranking? Pretty sure they could rebuild on the fly by trading Beni, Mookie, Devers, Chavis, Barnes, X, and Vazquez (yes, even him,) but somehow, that seems suboptimal toward the end goal.
The only ways to rebuild a farm system these days is to lose a lot of games or do a major sell-off of veterans.

Unless you believe that drafting is a skill but I don't think anyone has shown that so far. (Here's a 2014 538 article on the NFL draft that discusses this: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-team-can-beat-the-draft/).
I don't agree with either of these, there are lots of ways to add talent to the minor league system currently besides high draft picks. The Astros and the Dodgers contend every year and still have loaded systems. The Yankees have poured money into scouting everywhere possible: other team's systems, the draft for lower round picks, and internationally, and it's paid off quite a bit for them. I agree with @bosox79 that it's surprising how much DD has let the farm wither over the last few seasons, but as we all knew, it's never been his strength as a GM.
 

Adrian's Dome

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I'd like both. Plus he's had some time and the early results aren't promising. Casas is looking like a good pick though.. There is also truth to what Wade said, and a lot of times the prospects that end up contributing aren't on top 100 lists anyway. I just don't think he's done a particularly good job on the farm to date.
Both? And I'd like to wake up next to Ariana Grande every morning, but I just don't think it's in the cards.

Teams generally don't have awesome major-league squads full of graduates from the farm system at the same time as having that same farm flourishing with talent.

Houston is the exception, not the rule. Generally it's more a Tampa or Philly-like situation where you have to suck out loud for a few years before getting back into the game.
 

sean1562

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Jarren Duran is looking like a great pick as well. I think DD does do a bad job of evaluating relievers, really dont want to see another mid-season trade for a bullpen arm.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I don't agree with either of these, there are lots of ways to add talent to the minor league system currently besides high draft picks. The Astros and the Dodgers contend every year and still have loaded systems. The Yankees have poured money into scouting everywhere possible: other team's systems, the draft for lower round picks, and internationally, and it's paid off quite a bit for them. I agree with @bosox79 that it's surprising how much DD has let the farm wither over the last few seasons, but as we all knew, it's never been his strength as a GM.
In the past, teams have been able to pour money into one or another sector of talent acquisition and they - like Theo and Cashman - could tilt the odds in their favor not necessarily by being more skillful but just giving themselves more chances.

Today's rules eliminate most - if not all - of these advantages. Even in international scouting, where I supposed a team could throw a ton of money trying to establish relationships, the team still has to figure out which of the various 16, 17, or 18 year olds to sign given the international bonus money cap.

I have never seen a study that concludes that drafting well is a repeatable skill. As the 538 article mentions, that is not to say that people don't have a run of great picks. When 538 did their analysis, Ron Wolf, A.J. Smith, and Bill Polian were the three best drafting GMs on a per pick basis and they were fired because they had a string of bad drafts. Ozzie Newsome drafted 2 HOFs in his first draft as a Raven and lately has whiffed on most of his first two round picks.

Teams can throw as much money into the process as they want but at the end of the day, the potential value difference between the #1 overall pick and the #21 overall pick is so high that the money they spend wouldn't be material.

On thinking about it more, I guess one could say that a team that spends heavily in Latin America can get the equivalent of the #1 Latin pick without being the worse team in baseball. So I guess money in Latin America can give a team a slight edge over another team (cough - Orioles - cough) who didn't spend any money in Latin America. But so many major league baseball teams are spending millions in Latin America these days, I would think the difference is all that dramatic but I guess it's a good topic for someone to study.
 

jon abbey

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Teams can throw as much money into the process as they want but at the end of the day, the potential value difference between the #1 overall pick and the #21 overall pick is so high that the money they spend wouldn't be material.
Right, where you can get the difference is 1) lower round draft picks, 2) trading for lower level players already in other team's systems and 3) the international market. To be clear, I'm not talking about directly spending on talent acquisition because as you say, the CBA has made that impossible in most ways. I'm talking about making scouting at every level a top priority and it doesn't seem like BOS has kept up with the other top few teams in this regard in recent years (but I believe they hired a bunch of people recently to try to close the gap).
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Right, where you can get the difference is 1) lower round draft picks, 2) trading for lower level players already in other team's systems and 3) the international market. To be clear, I'm not talking about directly spending on talent acquisition because as you say, the CBA has made that impossible in most ways. I'm talking about making scouting at every level a top priority and it doesn't seem like BOS has kept up with the other top few teams in this regard in recent years (but I believe they hired a bunch of people recently to try to close the gap).
I know everything intuitively sounds obvious but - just the first example - I've not seen anything (and I would be happy to be corrected) that suggests that anyone can draft better in lower rounds than anyone else. Even in football, two of the teams that have most "success" in drafting - the Ravens and the Patriots - subscribe to the "sales" theory of drafting - the only way to better the odds is to have more chances. The draft salary cap doesn't really allow that in baseball.

It would be interesting to know that scouting can actually make a difference in developing talent but I'm skeptical. I'm even more skeptical that any team is better able to find players in the lower levels of the minors than any other team. Particularly these teams are looked at by hundreds if not thousands of players. I would be shocked if any study ever found evidence that one person or set of people had a skill at doing this, and if they did, they'd be the most valuable people in baseball.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I know everything intuitively sounds obvious but - just the first example - I've not seen anything (and I would be happy to be corrected) that suggests that anyone can draft better in lower rounds than anyone else. Even in football, two of the teams that have most "success" in drafting - the Ravens and the Patriots - subscribe to the "sales" theory of drafting - the only way to better the odds is to have more chances. The draft salary cap doesn't really allow that in baseball.
Nor does the restriction on being able to trade picks.

I think the closest thing to the "sales" theory of accumulating picks in MLB would be getting compensation picks for departed free agents. Changes to that system has made it incrementally harder to build through that method, but it is part of how Theo and Cherington excelled in building the Red Sox farm system. Matt Murton, Michael Bowden, Jed Lowrie, Clay Buchholz, Nick Hagadone, Bryce Brentz, Anthony Ranuado, Jackie Bradley Jr, Henry Owens, and Brian Johnson were all compensation picks those two GMs made who became major leaguers of varying success.
 

bosox79

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Nor does the restriction on being able to trade picks.

I think the closest thing to the "sales" theory of accumulating picks in MLB would be getting compensation picks for departed free agents. Changes to that system has made it incrementally harder to build through that method, but it is part of how Theo and Cherington excelled in building the Red Sox farm system. Matt Murton, Michael Bowden, Jed Lowrie, Clay Buchholz, Nick Hagadone, Bryce Brentz, Anthony Ranuado, Jackie Bradley Jr, Henry Owens, and Brian Johnson were all compensation picks those two GMs made who became major leaguers of varying success.
Teams can trade for slot money in the international draft. The amount they can trade for is capped though. The Redsox did so a few years ago when they traded Santiago Espinal (I think) to the Jays.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, you can trade for up to 75 percent additional on your international pool, but also if you can identify the right players at a younger age (which means like 14, a bit icky), you can lock them into lower bonuses. This is how NY has signed 4 of the top 12 international prospects in each of the past two seasons, they have traded spare parts for the maximum allowed international money both seasons.
 

jon abbey

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I'm not really quite expert enough about this to talk about it in detail, but another differentiation point is that teams have different numbers of minor league affiliates, it looks from the below linked list like everyone has between 7 and 9 affiliates, but that is a difference of 50 players under control.

http://www.milb.com/milb/info/affiliations.jsp
 

shaggydog2000

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I'm not really quite expert enough about this to talk about it in detail, but another differentiation point is that teams have different numbers of minor league affiliates, it looks from the below linked list like everyone has between 7 and 9 affiliates, but that is a difference of 50 players under control.

http://www.milb.com/milb/info/affiliations.jsp
I don't know that more non-prospects helps all that much. You can only draft so many players and sign so many international players, and the rest of these teams are minor league filler. I guess that is another 50 extreme lottery tickets, but I'm not seeing the real value in it.
 

RoDaddy

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4 dingers for Dalbec in the last two games! It's probably time to promote him since he was in AA last year as well. He's still striking out too much but I suspect that's unlikely to change much moving forward. Also time to promote Duran, who has been amazing and is apparently making the transition to CF well. Sox Prospects has their new rankings out with these two plus Casas as the top 3. Casas has played well lately and looks like a real good prospect. It's exciting to think of his and Dalbec's big time power at the top of our prospect list.

Might be time to move this thread to the Minor League Forum where it's traditionally been.

Big day tomorrow with the MLB draft - starting at 7 on MLB network.
 

BaseballJones

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Maybe it's just me, but I'm pretty excited about the talent the Sox have on the farm. I tend to be optimistic, but I'm pretty bullish on Casas, Dalbec, and Duran. I posted on the main board about Duran the other day...seems like the kid has got major ability.

If the Sox are looking for relief help in the trade market, I wonder what a guy like Chatham would fetch. Hitting .314 in Portland, hit over .300 in both Salem and Greenville last year. Very good defensively (apparently...I haven't seen him play). Potential starter at the MLB level. But he's 24 and for Boston, he's totally blocked by Bogaerts, and by superior players at the other IF positions in Devers, Chavis, Casas, and Dalbec (were they to consider moving him to a different IF position). But he could be pretty useful potentially for another team.
 

Orel Miraculous

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Also time to promote Duran, who has been amazing and is apparently making the transition to CF well.
Was he a complete butcher in the field? Otherwise, it's surprising that they'd move such a promising athlete down the defensive spectrum so early in his career, particulalry in light of the second base hole the Sox are looking at for the foreseeable future.
 

chawson

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Was he a complete butcher in the field? Otherwise, it's surprising that they'd move such a promising athlete down the defensive spectrum so early in his career, particulalry in light of the second base hole the Sox are looking at for the foreseeable future.
My guess is as shift data becomes more prevalent, the 2B and CF spots on the defensive spectrum are more interchangeable than they used to be. This may be especially true for the Sox with Fenway's triangle. Mike Moustakas and Travis Shaw are now passable second basemen somehow, and Chavis himself has been a slightly plus defender this year despite leaping up the spectrum from third base.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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Was he a complete butcher in the field? Otherwise, it's surprising that they'd move such a promising athlete down the defensive spectrum so early in his career, particulalry in light of the second base hole the Sox are looking at for the foreseeable future.
Is CF really moving down the defensive spectrum from 2B?

I read they moved him because they thought his speed was wasted playing 2B.
 

bosox79

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Dalbec 4/4-5/5: 26 games, 106 PA, .200/.358/.318, .283 BAbip, 4 doubles, 2 HR, 20bb/30k
Dalbec 5/7-6/4: 25 games, 106 PA, .290/.377/.688, .309 BAbip, 5 doubles, 1 triple, 10 HR, 10bb/28k

Thought this was an interesting line: Josh Ockimey since May: 122 PA, .191/.361/.500, .196 BAbip. 18 hits, 3 doubles, 1 triple, 10 HRs. 26bb/37k. 73 times the ball was not put in play, 49 times it was.

Non prospect Bryce Brentz over the last 23 games: .314/.415/.629. He's at .246/.349/.476 for the year in 149 PA. He also has ridiculous splits vs L and always has. I'd guess he has like a 1-2% chance of seeing time on the Sox this year so figured I'd mention him.

Marco Hernandez is off to a good start in the minors, he's easy to forget about since he's always injured. 38 games, 158 PA, .300/.361/.436, 12bb/21k.

Jarren Duran was recently promoted to Portland. He finished his time in Salem with a .387/.456/.543 line with 23bb/44k in 226 PA. 18/23 in SB. He did struggle his last few games, hitting .172/.314/.379 over his last 35 PA in Salem, but he also hit 2 HRs which doubled his total. He started his Portland career yesterday, going 1/3 with a BB. It'll be interesting to see how he does in Portland where he is more age appropriate. If he keeps hitting the way he has in AA, he'll be a top 50 prospect by years end.

Jhon Nunez: Nunez has been in the sox system what seems like forever but he's still just 24 years old. The catcher has put together some decent hitting seasons before but nothing great. In 2019, he is hitting .296/.343/.449 in AA. Given catchers usually start to hit later on in their careers, maybe it's something to watch.

Kyle Hart: He's 26 and was just promoted to AAA but his minor league track record is full of positive results. This year he has a 2.80 era in 70.2 ip with 21bb/72k. Since being promoted to AAA, he has pitched 2 games: His first game he pitched a 9 inning shutout giving up 5 hits and striking out 8. His 2nd he went 6, giving up 5 hits, 4bb, 4k and 4 er.

Denyi Reyes: He hasn't followed up on his stellar campaign last year but has shown signs of life his last 2 starts. His first 8 starts: 5.49 era 41.0 ip, 43 hits, 19bb/32k.
Last 2 starts: 0.00 era, 12 ip, 4 hits, 2bb/15k. Both starts were 6 innings of shutout ball.

If you take away Tanner Houck's first start of the year: 3.50 era, 46.1 IP, 45 hits, 16bb/46k. .257/.327/.366 against. They've been pretty aggressive with him too.

Darwinzon Hernandez: 39.1 ip, 31bb/57k. Insane.

Durbin Feltman:
First 7 games: 3.86 era, 7.0 ip, 2 hits, 3er, 4bb/9k.
Middle 3 games: 24.00 era, 3.0 ip, 5 hits, 8 er, 9bb/1k.
Last 8 games: 1.74 era, 10.1 ip, 7 hits, 2 er, 3bb/11k.

Take out the middle 3 games: 15 games, 2.60 era, 17.1 ip, 9 hits, 5 er, 7bb/20k.

Alan Marrero: Taken for his defense at the C position in the 8th round of 2016, Marrero continues to hit this season. Now in 96 PA, he is slashing .271/.354/.494 with 11bb/30k. He's always had an issue with strikeouts but has always walked a decent amount too. The power he's showing is very encouraging though.

Triston Casas: After a terrible April, he continues to mash the ball. Since May 1st: 128 PA, .296/.375/.611, .304 BAbip, 13bb/25k, 8 doubles, 1 triple, 8 Hrs. He's going to make a few top 100 lists too, it'll be interesting to see where he slots since he's mostly all bat, but what a bat. That's a lot of power for a 19 year old.

Brandon Howlett: He's lost a lot of his shine from last year. In 200 PA, he's slashing .233/.325/.343 with 19bb/60k.

Cole Brannen: 211 PA, .180/.249/.217. For his career: 681 PA, .186/.290/.220. Terrible 2nd round pick to date.

Thad Ward: The 22 year old starter was taken in the 5th round of last year and has had a great start in Greenville, although that's to be expected given his age. This year: 2.02 era, 11 starts, 62.1 ip, 42 hits, 21bb/71k. A WHIP of 1.01. He's definitely one to follow.
 

Danny_Darwin

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Possibly dumb question: does Casas pronounce it “CASS-us” (short a) or “CASE-us” (long a)? Or some other way?
 

Twilight

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Possibly dumb question: does Casas pronounce it “CASS-us” (short a) or “CASE-us” (long a)? Or some other way?
I thought I heard Joe and Josh refer to him yesterday as "CASH-us," as in, "Yon Casas has a lean and hungry look." That's exactly how I want prospects to look, so I'm rooting for that.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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Triston Casas: After a terrible April, he continues to mash the ball. Since May 1st: 128 PA, .296/.375/.611, .304 BAbip, 13bb/25k, 8 doubles, 1 triple, 8 Hrs. He's going to make a few top 100 lists too, it'll be interesting to see where he slots since he's mostly all bat, but what a bat. That's a lot of power for a 19 year old.
You said that Casas is "all bat." I know it's been reported that he has a very strong arm. When he was drafted, I think the questions were whether his footwork and range would allow him to stick at 3B, but he's young, and as we've seen with Devers, footwork at the hot corner can be improved with coaching and practice. Does anyone know how Casas is looking at 3B this season? The report on SoxProspects doesn't look like it's been updated since last season, when he hurt his thumb soon after being drafted.

With Devers at 3rd for the foreseeable future, it may not matter much if Casas ends up at 1B. But he'd certainly have more value if he could also play 3rd.
 

The Gray Eagle

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Speier has a good article in the Glob today about Durbin Feltman.

“Everybody gets kind of a baptism by fire when they get into pro ball,” said Joe Oliver, Feltman’s manager in Double-A Portland. “I don’t know if it’s a fair assessment for him to think that he could blow through the minors. I don’t know exactly where it was all fabricated or where it came through, but he’s one year removed from TCU. . . . He’s been put on the fast track, definitely, but he’s starting to understand how difficult it is on a day-to-day basis.”

The 22-year-old, who had a 1.93 ERA with 36 strikeouts and five walks in 23⅓ innings in three levels of A-ball (Lowell, Greenville, and Salem) last year, has endured some sizable potholes in 2019 in Portland. In 18 games and 20⅓ innings, he has a 5.75 ERA with nearly as many walks (16) as strikeouts (21)."

"Feltman believes that his season reached an important turning point on May 9. That was the day, after a third consecutive disastrous outing in which he collectively allowed eight runs and walked nine in three innings, a pitcher who spoke candidly of his appetite to get to the big leagues as soon as possible recognized that he needed to stop trying to overthrow while pitching for promotions.

“I was just like, ‘I’m putting too much pressure on myself that I’ve got to make it now. I’ve got to focus on where I am now,’ ” said Feltman, who quickly recognized via video that he was pulling off in his delivery, resulting in his dramatic difficulties throwing strikes. “I kind of got ahead of myself a little bit. Since then, I was just, ‘Relax, and do what you do.’ Since then I’ve gotten back into the swing of things.”

Indeed, Feltman has allowed two runs while striking out 11 and walking three his last eight appearances and 10⅓ innings. His velocity has been solid even if shy of where it was in college — his fastball has sat at 93-94 mph, topping out at 96 — and, at the encouragement of the team, he’s been focusing on pitch location.

Feltman threw his fastball down in the strike zone, with his breaking ball diving below it for chases at TCU. The Sox want Feltman to focus on attacking at and above the top of the strike zone with his fastball, while landing his power curve (a pitch with high-80s slider velocity that has 12-to-6 downward break) either in the zone or just below it.

“I’ve started throwing up in the zone a little bit more. Wherever he sets up, I throw at the catcher’s mask,” said Feltman. “I’ve noticed that it plays better up there. The worst they do is pop it straight up.”

“That’s a huge, huge adjustment for him,” observed Portland pitching coach Paul Abbott. “Everything that’s been pounded into his head up to this point is, ‘Bottom of the zone, bottom of the zone.’ Now he’s starting to pitch to the top of the zone. It’s a big difference in your release point. He sees it and understands why we’re doing it. He’s getting there.”

There is more for him to do, whether locking in the consistency of his delivery to improve his command, continuing to gain comfort with different locations, and perhaps even working a bit more to incorporate a third pitch."
In the same article, Speier has notes on 3 prospects doing well and 3 who are struggling, including positive updates on Duran and Houck:

"Outfielder Jarren Duran, promoted to Double-A Portland following a .387/.456/.543 run in 50 games with High-A Salem, created buzz in his second game in Portland, not only lining a double to the opposite field off the Maine Monster but also showing blazing speed in beating out a routine grounder to short for a single.

Righthander Tanner Houck struck out 11 with no walks while allowing a pair of runs (the product of weak contact) over seven innings for Double-A Portland on Thursday. Houck dominated righthanders with a wipeout slider while working up and down in the strike zone with four- and two-seam fastballs and also mixing in some good changeups. Houck has had a very strange season, facing several lineups comprised almost entirely of lefties and a couple (as with Thursday’s) made almost entirely of righties. Righties are hitting .226 with 29 strikeouts and one walk against him; lefties are hitting .321 with 31 strikeouts and 18 walks.

Albert Feliz, a 17-year-old outfielder in the Dominican Summer League, hit three homers as part of a 4-for-5 performance on Thursday. All three homers had exit velocities of 100 mph or greater, and his fourth hit was a double to right-center that hit the top of the wall."​
 
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RoDaddy

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Add Feliz to a small but growing list of interesting Sox DSLers this year including high bonus signee Eduardo Lopez and Bryan Gonzalez (3 early home runs)
 

bosox79

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Add Feliz to a small but growing list of interesting Sox DSLers this year including high bonus signee Eduardo Lopez and Bryan Gonzalez (3 early home runs)
HRs used to be hard to hit in the DSL. Maybe the launch angle revolution has hit the DSL too but it isn't all that uncommon to lead your team with 3-5 HRs at the end of the season. Xander hit 3 in 63 games, Devers hit 3 in 28, Margot had 4 in 68.

Either way, there's definitely some exciting talent in the DSL and it's more concentrated due to only having 1 team.

Maybe another 2 to watch down on the DSL:

Moises Castellanos's first 2 games, 7 ip, 4 hits, 0 r, 3bb/12k. He has struck out 12/28 batters he's faced. Probably a nothing but he's had the best pitching performance to date.

SS Brainer Bonaci (seriously, how awesome of a name is that?) in his first 6 games is hitting .440/.517/.560 in 29 PA with 4bb/1k and is a perfect 8/8 in SB. He's stolen a base in all 6 games as well. He has been on base 14 times and has been on base at least twice in every game. He also has a triple. There is very little known about the 16 year old other than he has a plus arm. It looks like he may have plus speed or even plus plus speed as well. Anyone seen him? He's young, even for the DSL and doesn't turn 17 until 7/9. He's listed at 5'10 140 so I wouldn't expect power to be a big part of his game. I'm very intrigued though. Maybe it's early season noise but I don't recall anyone in my 20+ years of following the farm stealing 8 bases in their first 6 games so it bears watching at the very least.

There are a lot of hitters performing well in SSS, but those 2 stuck out along with Gonzalez and Feliz. Castellanos was a $25k signing, Bonaci received $290k, Feliz 400k, and Gonzalez $500k.
 
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bosox79

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Bryan Gonzalez continues to mash. In just 11 games, he already has 5 HRs. He's slashing .341/.423/.773 in 52 PA with 5bb/11k. He has 2 sb in 2 attempts for good measure.

Albert Feliz also hit another HR this past week and has 4 for the year. He's slashing .318/.354/.705 in 48 PA with 2bb/15k.

Brainer Bonaci is now slashing .405/.479/.548 and picked up 2 more SB along the way. In 10 games, he is 10/10 in SB. He has 5bb/7k in 47 PA.

Elio Prado, signed to an $85k signing bonus, is off to a great start too at .316/.435/.526 with 1 HR and 4/4 in SB. 8bb/9k in 47 PA.

The 2 DSL teams have played a combined 22 games and have 11 HRs in those games. 9 of them were either by Gonzalez or Feliz. There are tons of offensive players off to excellent starts. If this keeps up, the Sox farm system could be in very good shape at the end of the year. These 2 teams are very fun to watch. The following players are also off to decent starts, thought not nearly the start the previous 4 are off too:
3b Alex Zapete, .333/.381/.436, 45k Bonus
C Nysbal Marcano, .324/.351/.441, 350k Bonus
OF Darel Belen, .311/.347/.444, Unknown Bonus
SS Noelberth Ramero, .294/.400/.412, 275k Bonus


Greenville:

Triston Casas remains hot, now slashing .301/.381/.581, .333 BAbip in his last 160 PA with 9 HRs, 17bb/35k.

Alan Marrero continues to hit for power. He was advertised as being a defensive minded catcher with below average contact skills and 0 power but he's shown surprising pop to date. Maybe it's real, maybe he's the next Javy Guerra.
2016-2018: 228 PA, .144/.281/.227, 28 hits, 4 doubles, 4 HRs, 28bb/77k
2019: 112 PA, .257/.330/.475, 26 hits, 7 doubles, 5 HRs, 11bb/39k

Marino Campana: After having a decent year last year, Campana has struggled out of the gate and has looked dreadful. In 115 PA this year, the power hitting RF is slashing .159/.216/.252.

Thad Ward made 2 more starts since last update and now has a 1.99 era in 72.1 ip to go along with 25bb/87k and a WHIP of 1.05. Expect him to be in Salem soon.

Salem:

After missing a month due to injury, Mata returned on 6/7: 5.0 ip, 2 hits, 1bb/5k. That brings his season line to a 1.83 era, 34.1 IP, 12bb/36k and a WHIP of 0.99.

Portland:
Bobby Dalbec's last 33 games: 142 PA, .277/.387/.639, .284 BAbip. 5 doubles, 1 triple, 12 HRs, 17bb/34k.
Since June 1st: 48 PA, .235/.438/.588, .182 BAbip. 10bb/9k. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets called up to AAA soon either, especially since he had over 100 PA in AA last year as well.
Season: .245/.375/.505, .283 BABip in 248 PA, 37bb/64k. I've seen him play a bit in Portland and I like his glove. I'm starting to like him a lot more as a prospect now that he's repeating last year's performance.

Jarren Duran: Off to a slow start in Portland, in 41 PA he's slashing .171/.310/.286 with 6bb/8k, 1sb/2cs. He doesn't look overmatched so hopefully he starts hitting again soon.

Denyi Reyes has found the control that he is known for over his last 4 games: 3.39 era, 24.0 ip, 3bb/25k.

Tanner Houck has also turned a corner over his last 4 games as well: 2.15 era, 25.0 ip, 4bb/31k. Hitters slashing .223/.284/.287. Hopefully the first round pick continues to build on his recent success.
6.0 IP, 5h, 3er, 1bb/7k
6.0 ip, 3h, 0 er, 3bb/7k
7.0 ip, 7h, 2er, 0bb/11k
6.0 ip, 6 , 1er, 0bb/6k

Pawtucket:
Josh Ockimey
First 43 games: 175 PA, .239/.411/.590, .260 BAbip. 7 doubles, 2 triples 12 HRs. 38bb/46k.
Last 16 games: 63 PA, .111/.206/.259. .125 BAbip. 2 doubles, 2 HRs, 6bb/22k.
He's another guy who goes through some serious ups and downs. I guess when you put the ball in play as little as he does, that will happen.

Bryce Brentz continues his tear and hit another 2 HR yesterday. From April 29th to now, he is hitting .294/.391/.633, .319 BAbip in 128 PA with 8 doubles, 10 HRs and 16bb/31k. Wouldn't surprise me if he got a few PA in Boston this year, especially given his splits.
Season vs R: 136 PA, .228/.338/.439
Season vs L: 49 PA, .302/.388/.698


The DSL stats were before today's games which will be ending soon.
 

bosox79

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DSL2 game just ended and the previously mentioned Elio Prado hit his 2nd HR of the year and stole his 5th base in a 2/5 performance today. Now up to .326/.431/.581 in 51 PA with 8bb/9 and 5sb in 5 attempts.
 

RoDaddy

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Great job starting and energizing this minor league thread, 79 - keep it going

Love what's going on with the DSL teams
Casas might be destined for greatness
I see SoxProspects projects Mata as at best, a bottom of the rotation starter if not long reliever, but I think he can be much more (#3 starter?)
More talent on the way soon in Flores and Groome (maybe soon)
 

simplicio

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A couple 18 year olds in Lowell to keep an eye on as that season gets started: along with IFA bonus baby SS Antoni Flores, there's also $10k acquisition Gilberto Jimenez in CF, a contact hitter with plus plus speed and a good arm. He went 3 for 4 in the first game yesterday.
 

bosox79

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Great job starting and energizing this minor league thread, 79 - keep it going

Love what's going on with the DSL teams
Casas might be destined for greatness
I see SoxProspects projects Mata as at best, a bottom of the rotation starter if not long reliever, but I think he can be much more (#3 starter?)
More talent on the way soon in Flores and Groome (maybe soon)
Mata went another 6.0 innings on Friday, giving up 3 hits, 0 r, 2bb/5k. He's still 20 and saw an uptick in stuff last year so who knows?

Brainer Bonaci continues to impress too, going 3/4 with a HR on Saturday and 1/3 with a double and a SB (11/11) today. He's hitting .426 in his first 60 PA. Feliz went 0/1 with 2bb. Zapete went 3/4.

For DSL2, Bryan Gonzalez went 4/6 with a triple today. Prado went 3/6 and got caught stealing a base. Marcano went 3/5 with a 2b and 6 rbi. Romero went 1/6 but with his first HR.

These 2 teams are really, really fun to follow. The hitting anyway, and at least in the early going. They have me checking the box scores daily. Brainer Bonaci is the biggest binky I've had in awhile.

I'll give Chad De La Guerra some ink because, while it's not likely, it's not out of the realm of possibility we see him this year.
Last year in Portland: .266/.343/.462 in 356 PA. He struggled mightily in AAA though, .137/.158/.205 in 76 PA with 1bb/22k.
This year in AAA: .297/.377/.554 in 115 PA with 13bb/22k.

I've also said many times if Jake Cosart could ever figure it all out, he'd be a huge asset. He's split time this year in A/AA and is already 25, but his combined line: 1.30 era, 27.2 ip, 8bb/33k, .867 WHIP. In AA: 8.0 ip, 3bb/11k, .750 WHIP. He got on a lot of people's radars after his 2016 campaign. Control has always been a huge issue.
2016: 1.78 era, 70.2 ip, 36bb/104, 1.118 WHIP between A/A+

2017 was a tale of 2 halves.
First 21 games in 2017: 5.18 era, 24.1 ip, 13 hits, 32bb/21k, .159/.398/.280 against, .167 BAbip
Last 17 games in 2017: 1.08 era, 25.0 ip, 15 hits, 9bb/31k, .167/.262/.300 against, .224 BAbip

In 2018, he started off so bad he earned himself a demotion back to Salem. It also looks like he was either giving up really hard contact last year, was a bit unlucky, or both.
First 11 games (AA): 8.41 era, 20.1 ip, 24 hits, 6 HRA, 9bb/24k, .279/.347/.570 against, .321 BAbip.
Next 18 games (A+): 3.65 era, 24.2 ip, 26 hits, 0 HRA, 9bb/32k, .263/.327/.394 against, .382 BAbip
Last 8 games (AA): 2.81 era, 16.0 ip, 15 hits, 0 HRA, 6bb/21k, .259/.324/.293 against, .375 BAbip

Over his last 46 games: 2.50 era, 68.1 ip, 57 hits, 1 HRA, 23bb/86k. 30.4% K rate, 8.1% BB rate. He'll probably fall apart again soon but he does have a big time arm.

edit: Also Casas hit 12th HR over the weekend and I've kind of dismissed 2018th 6th round pick Devlin Granberg because he's 23 and in Greenville but he's having a pretty good year. .290/.391/.463 in 253 PA. He hit .300/.383/.435 in 256 PA playing for Lowell last year.
 
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oumbi

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A small update on Durbin Feltman. Since his disastrous early May outings of 8 ER in two games, he has pitched as follows:

17.1 IP
9 H
2 ER
11 BB (4 in the game immediately following the 8 run debacle)
15 K
1 extra base hit allowed, a double