Down on the Farm, 2019 edition

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I would say his best case is Dan Uggla hitting with Pedroia's defense.


I think you meant that the last 11 games have looked more like the first 26. This is largely due to fluctuations in home runs, which are rare events. It will be telling to see whether the next 15 games resemble the first 26 or not.

Regardless, the larger question is whether Chavis can adapt. My primary concern isn't just the current trajectory, however, its that Chavis has a glaring weakness for high fastballs in the strike zone. Until he can demonstrate an ability to make contact with high fastballs, I don't see him adjusting very far.

In any case, you are right that Chavis has demonstrated more predictive value than Dalbec. Much of that value resides in Chavis being able to hit well. However, Dalbec generates value with merely a league average bat.



This is a really good reason not to do anything yet. I don't think trading Chavez nor Dalbec at the deadline would be selling high.
I really hope if JDM leaves (I think it's more likely the Sox ink him to a 4/$100 deal) that they'll address that through better means than Dalbec.

EDIT- I'm not sure who will be FA's that could come close to replacing his bat for $25M per season. And while a lineup with Devers as the future anchor, Betts (at least for one more season), Bogaerts will be pretty dangerous even if Dalbec is his (JDM's) replacement in the lineup (which I highly doubt)..... more likely he'll be (if anything) JBJ's replacement in the lineup and yes, Benintendi's replacement in LF (10D moving to CF).

EDIT2- Only FA's I'm seeing that the Sox could use to address JDM wanting to play elsewhere, opting out and and looking for ridiculous money still....Anthony Rendon? Marcel Ozuna? Josh Donaldson? Puig? Abreu? Castellanos?
 
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Plympton91

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Oct 19, 2008
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That’s interesting. If Houck and Hernandez can be the bullpen reinforcements instead of trading for them it would be nice.

Feldman with an horrific outing, 3 H, a HBP, and a WP for 2 runs.

On the positive side, this G. Jimenez dude at Lowell, only 19 with a 890 OPS. Like.
 

bosox79

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Dec 22, 2002
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That's a weird promotion re: Tanner Houck unless he's just been working on stuff in his 2 bullpen appearances, which is very possible.

Also in his first 3 bullpen appearances since moving to the pen, Darwinzon has 3.1 ip, 0 hits, 0bb/5k. I've been hoping for awhile now that the move to the pen would help him repeat his delivery, thus improving his command. We'll see. His last outing he struck out the side.
 

Plympton91

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Brayan Bello, pitcher for Greenville, tonight had 13 K in 6 scoreless innings. He has had an awful season with an ERA over 7 before tonight in 69 innings. But, apparently when he’s good, he’s spectacular.
 

bosox79

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Brayan Bello, pitcher for Greenville, tonight had 13 K in 6 scoreless innings. He has had an awful season with an ERA over 7 before tonight in 69 innings. But, apparently when he’s good, he’s spectacular.
Sometimes guys just have really great games too tho.. With that caveat:

Bello is another guy who saw his velocity jump 2-3 mph. I'm not a pitcher/scout/whatever but I'd guess the increased velocity takes some time to get used to and affects (effects?) control/command some too. Bello had a great season last year in the DSL, with an era of 1.60 in 67.1 ip, 10bb/74k. and a WHIP of .73. That's hard to do in any league. Granted he was pretty old for the DSL at 19 years of age. He had 3 innings in the GCL last year but for the most part, skipped rookie ball all together.

Going further into his numbers this season, hitters are slashing .315/.383/.479 off him with a .398 BAbip. His k% is only 22.1% and his BB% is 8.8%. I'd guess last nights game was just an outlier but maybe it's a sign of things to come.

Either way, It's "funny" how pitching prospects work out. I wonder if it's better for pitchers to add velocity later on in their career because it forces them to learn how to pitch, and it's probably less strain on their arm earlier on. Mata (who is only 2 weeks older than Bello) and Bello are now sitting around 95 at age 20 and we've seen Groome, Espinoza and Kopech's careers get derailed early on by injuries.

When all is said and done, Logan Allen may be the best SP the Redsox traded away.
 

bosox79

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Dec 22, 2002
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DSL updates
SS Brainer Bonaci cooled off a bit from his hot start but has still been producing. For the season, he's at .344/.414/.480 with 13 sb/6cs. He just turned 17 on 7/9, so he's young even for the DSL. He has had 2 PA against pitchers older than he is.

OF Albert Feliz hit his 7th HR of the season on 7/11. In 35 games, he's slashing .256/.326/.504 with 13bb/41k in 144 PA. He was given $400k in large part because of his power potential and it's already starting to emerge in games and he's only 17.

SP Nixson Munoz continues to dominate DSL hitters, going 6.0 ip, 3 hits, 0 er, 0bb/1k. Now at a 1.37 era over 26.2 ip with 2bb/34k.

3b Alex Zapete continues to hit for average but not much else. In 112 PA, he's slashing .337/.375/.404 with 6bb/9k. He's Randall Simon, apparently.

OF Bryan Gonzalez has been in a deep funk the last 15 games: 62 PA, .151/.274/.151 on a .229 BAbip. Now at .263/.362/.458 for the season in 138 PA, 16bb/37k.

Lowell
OF Gilberto Jimenez is slashing .376/.409/.482 in 93 PA with a .449 BAbip, 5bb/17k. Last year in the DSL, he was at .319/.384/.420 in 284 PA. He was signed for only $10k. The guy is a stand out athlete at the very least. Very fast, good range, fast bat. He's just very raw but turned 19 a week ago. He has plenty of time.

Greenville
3b Triston Casas has cooled off over the last week. 32 PA, .074/.219/.111 with 4bb/11k. We'll see how he adjusts now that he's struggling again for the first time since April.

Salem
OF Marcus Wilson is playing a video game over his 42 games, slashing .363/.432/.644 on a .477 BAbip in 155 PA with 12 doubles, 1 triple and 8 HRs. 17bb/43k. For the year: 282 PA, .281/.376/.496 with 36bb/93. He turns 23 on August 15th. I'd like to see him back in Portland again.

Portland
OF Jarren Duran: After getting caught 4 times in his first 6 steal attempts, He is 8/8 since, including 7/7 in the last 10 games. Still not really hitting that much, especially when you factor in his 4/5 game but it's a start. Last 14: 59 PA, .298/.322/.333 with 1bb/15k and a .405 BAbip.

MR Eduard Bazardo: He "struggled" upon promotion in his first 3 games: 3.60 era, 5.0 ip, 4 hits, 5bb/4k but has been dominate his last 3: 1.35 era, 6.2 ip, 4 hits, 1bb/9k. Season to date: 1.88 era, 52.2 ip, 15bb/66k, 0.987 WHIP.

Pawtucket
1b Sam Travis: Kind of amazing he only turns 26 in August. Not that that's particularly young, just that it feels like he's been in the sox system forever. He's having a solid year in AAA this year, slashing .277/.365/437 in 263 PA.
vs RHP: 204 PA, .234/.343/.354
vs LHP: 90 PA, .333/.356/.517

That's pretty much a trend throughout his career. I wonder how and him Ockimey would do as a tandem, though Ockimey has been getting considerably worse as the season goes along and tends to be very hot for a month or two and then cold for a month or two. Kinda like a mini JBJ.
April: .246/.402/.565 in 87 PA
May: .190/.377/.506 in 106 PA (wow!)
June: .205/.308/.410 in 91 PA
July: .100/.206/.233 in 34 PA.


SS Tzu-wei Lin has been pretty terrible this year in AAA, though he's been battling injuries too. In 107 PA, he's slashing .229/.293/.323 and looking more like the 2012-2016 version of himself. I had high hopes for him coming into the year. I still think he can be close to a fringe average hitter. Couple that with plus defense at SS, 2b, 3b and the ability to play the OF spots and you have Brock Holt with a better glove. He still needs to prove he can actually hit though.

MR Bobby Poyner's last 19 games in AAA: 1.73 era, 26.0 ip, 15 hits, 5 er, 9bb/30k, 1 HRA. Exactly 100 BF, so 9% BB%, 30% K%. Of course he has that 3.0 ip, 6 hit, 5 er, 2bb/2k performance at the Majors between that.
He's also not a LOOGY, as he's basically had a reverse split/no split his whole career. So if the Sox are looking for a lefty, he aint it.
This year vs R: .222/.315/.352 in 124 PA, 14bb/33k
This year vs L: .280/.404/.533 in 59 PA, 10bb/13k
Last year vs R: .259/.311/.414 in 191 PA 10bb/43k.
Last year vs L: .259/.299/.402 in 89 PA 4bb/17k.
2017 vs R: .145/.231/.211 in 169 PA, 16bb/59k.
2017 vs L: .250/.257/.397 in 71 PA, 1bb/25k.
2016 vs R: .217/.254/.331 in 180 PA, 8bb/48k.
2016 vs L: .244/.268/.359 in 82 PA, 3bb/14k.
2015 vs R: .328/.349/.525 in 64 PA, 2bb/16k
2015 vs L: .250/.270/.333 in 37 PA, 0bb/6k.

MR Darwinzon Hernandez: Incredibly SSS but the early results are good. Since being moved to a bullpen role this year: 3 games, 3.1 ip, 0 hits, 0 bb, 5k, 10 batters faced.
Last 2 years out of the bullpen: 17 games, 1.96 era, 23.0 ip, 18 hits, 5 er, 13bb/43k, 0 HRA, 1.44 WHIP. 103 Batters faced. 12.6% BB%, 41.7% K%.

He had another game in the minors this year where he pitched 4.2 ip, 4 hits, 4er, 4bb/8k but that was piggy backing a returning Brian Johnson who pitched for the first time in a month so I removed it.
 

RoDaddy

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Jun 19, 2002
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7 dingers by Feliz is already very impressive for the DSL. I'm not sure what the home run record is for a Sox DSL affiliate, but I wonder if he's closing in

I'm pretty sold on Bonaci and now find myself hoping he'll grow a few more inches (he just turned 17) more than anything else!

Just checked in on the minor league boxes and looks like another good performance by Mata

Lots of good discussion about Dalbec. Personally, I think he's a solid big league prospect in large part because of his OBP in addition to the prodigious power. He's up to .375 OBP right now despite a low average, and this has been trending upwards during his minor league career. I believe Plympton pointed out his improved BB/SO ratio. Someone projected him at .300 OBP if he makes the bigs but I think it will be much higher, and make him a decent prospect even for a first division team like the Sox when combined with probably 30+ dingers and good defense wherever he plays
 

bosox79

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Dec 22, 2002
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Yeah, Bryan Mata is a machine. 6.0 ip, 4 hits 2 er, 1bb/8k. 1 HRA. Ward was pulled early in Salem though. 2.0 ip, 2 hits, 2er, 2bb/5k. 45 pitches. Maybe planned.

Re Feliz: For reference, last year's DSL1 team hit 8 HRs combined in both 2017 and 2018. On the other hand, the DSL2 team had 17 year old Danny Diaz hit 6 HRs in 113 PA last year.

In 2013, 17 year old Victor Acosta had 8 HRs in 264 PA. That's the most HR a Redsox player has hit in the DSL since at least 2005. I couldn't find stats predating that.

edit: Also, Darwinzon Hernandez wasn't very good today. Came in to a 3-3 game in the top of the 8th and went 1.0 ip, 1 hit, 1er, 1bb, 1k, 1 hbp.
 
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simplicio

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Apr 11, 2012
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Stephen Scott, 10th round selection this year as a senior out of Vandy, has started off the first 4 games of his career playing LF in Lowell with a .571/.600/.786 line with three doubles.

Also in the last week Nick Decker has whacked his way out of an increasingly mediocre line with his first 4 career HR in the last 5 games.

Antoni Flores has finally started hitting and walking lately too. .447 OBP in July vs .244 in June.
 

Plympton91

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Oct 19, 2008
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Bello followed up his otherworldly performance with another very solid 6 IP, 1 R, 1BB, 6 K outing.

And Houck pitches two clean innings for Pawtucket.